Once you get into the Quarter Final Round at any Grand Slam, the excitement levels will pick up naturally, but this feels like a very special day for the host nation.
One American Semi Finalist is guaranteed in both the Men's and Women's tournament by the end of the day's schedule and that is going to bring about an intense, exciting atmosphere when both of those Quarter Final matches are played between compatriots.
Those who have tickets for either Session on Arthur Ashe on Day 10 will also have the fortune of seeing either the World Number 1 and two time defending US Open Champion in Aryna Sabalenka taking on the Ladies Champion from Wimbledon or they will have another American player hoping to book a spot at in the final four at the expense of the defending Men's Champion.
This is going to be a truly brilliant day for Tennis fans both in attendance in New York City or tuning in from home.
Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 games v Linda Noskova: Keeping hold of the World Number 1 position is out of Aryna Sabalenka's hands right now, but the only focus within the team will be winning a first Grand Slam of 2026. That has to be ambition of the Belarusian in every season, but 2026 has proved to be a difficult year in the Majors and that has meant Sabalenka has had to face plenty of questions from the media.
Her frustration has shown at the US Open, but the tennis doing most of the talking and Aryna Sabalenka has made her way through the draw with some confidence.
There is room for improvement considering Aryna Sabalenka has yet to be tested at the tournament, despite moving through to the Quarter Final. Two of the four wins have been against players Ranked outside of the top 100, while the other two wins have been against the World Number 59 and World Number 92.
The losses in Toronto and Cincinnati to players that Aryna Sabalenka would have expected to beat would have really hurt, and the current World Number 1 will be well aware that she has to serve better than she did in the Fourth Round if she is going to win a third straight US Open title.
It is also a fact that the level of opponent is lifted greatly in this Quarter Final when Aryna Sabalenka prepares to face the Wimbledon Champion Linda Noskova.
Not many would be surprised to note that Linda Noskova only had a 2-2 record on the hard courts in the build up to the US Open after skipping much of the summer after the success in London. She opened her bid to win a second Grand Slam by winning consecutive matches in straight sets, but Linda Noskova has needed to go the distance in each of the last two Rounds and the Czech youngster has spent a considerable amount of court in those matches.
Linda Noskova edged past Marta Kostyuk after a battle in the Fourth Round, and she will also feel there is room for improvement in terms of consistency of the serve.
It also feels more important for Linda Noskova to pick up the serving numbers compared with Aryna Sabalenka and that is mainly down to the fact that the former has not been as effective on the return. She has had the stronger wins to make it through to the Quarter Final, especially the win over Marta Kostyuk in the last Round, but Linda Noskova has won 41% of return points played on the hard courts this season and this remains a part of her tennis that does need to be improved.
Earlier this season, Aryna Sabalenka's serve proved to be a key difference in helping her beat Linda Noskova in the Indian Wells Semi Final.
This Quarter Final may also be determined by that aspect of the each other's game and the current World Number 1 may be able to produce her most impressive win of the 2026 US Open by taking out the Wimbledon Champion.
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v Emma Navarro: One American is guaranteed to be playing in the US Open Semi Final and it may take something special for that to be Emma Navarro rather than Jessica Pegula.
She may be the oldest player in the top six of the World Rankings, but Jessica Pegula continues to operate at a very good level and she is very, very comfortable on the hard courts. Earlier this season, Jessica Pegula reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open, but she has thrived in the hectic environment of New York City and has been a Finalist here in 2024 and Semi Finalist in 2025.
Jessica Pegula has won the most Grand Slam matches at the US Open and she has dropped a single set to reach the Quarter Final.
Her opening two victories in the tournament came in dominant fashion, but Jessica Pegula has been struggling to get on top of her serve in the last couple of Rounds. Despite that, the return has continued to be a big part of her tennis and Pegula has broken serve four times in each of her four wins.
Emma Navarro had reached the Quarter Final or Semi Final at three consecutive Grand Slam tournaments between July 2024 and January 2025 and it is no surprise that she hit her peak career World Ranking during that period. It has been much tougher for her since then having reached the Fourth Round at one of the last six Grand Slams played before Emma Navarro put this unexpected run together at the US Open.
Her best Grand Slam result was right here in New York City two years ago and Emma Navarro had given Aryna Sabalenka a tough time, but there had been little sign of this kind of success being put together at a Major. Results in the build up to the US Open had been largely disappointing, but Emma Navarro should be credited for showing improvement in each passing Round of this tournament.
Those improved performances have been needed as the competition has ramped up and will give Navarro fans a lot of confidence.
However, Jessica Pegula has not minded this match up and earned a pretty straightforward win over Emma Navarro in Cincinnati last month.
It is the second solid win over her compatriot on the hard courts within the last twelve months and Jessica Pegula has proven to be the superior return player in those head to head contests.
Emma Navarro will point out that she has created plenty of Break Points of her own against the Pegula serve, but it is the World Number 3 who has been able to create a few more opportunities. Ultimately that has proven to be the difference between them, which can be credited to Jessica Pegula being able to protect the second serve with a little more success compared with the World Number 27.
The lower Ranked player has slowed the slide down the World Rankings with her run here, but Jessica Pegula has all of the qualities needed to find a way to control this match and earn her spot in the final four at the 2026 US Open.
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 sets v Alex Michelsen: The Women's tournament is guaranteed to have one American Semi Finalist and the same can be said for the Men's draw with the winner of this one heading into the final four.
Out of the American players on the Tour, you'd have to say that Alex Michelsen being in this position is the surprise.
Like many of his compatriots, Alex Michelsen is more than comfortable on the hard courts, but this is a player who reached the Quarter Final in Washington before relatively early defeats in Montreal and Cincinnati. A Challenger success will have given Alex Michelsen confidence, but he would have been pretty far down the shortlist of American players that could make it through to the final four of the home Grand Slam.
After reaching the Final in Cincinnati, more of a case could be made for Frances Tiafoe who has also enjoyed his time in New York City in the past. The World Number 12 is a two time US Open Semi Finalist and has also reached the Quarter Final here so any run that Frances Tiafoe has been able to put together is far less surprising than the one Alex Michelsen has produced.
There will be the added factor of knowing a win here would take Frances Tiafoe into his career best World Ranking well inside the top ten.
However, the opportunity to win a Grand Slam has to be the main motivator and Frances Tiafoe has beaten the highest Ranked opponent in the run to the Quarter Final when he saw off Daniil Medvedev in the Fourth Round.
Alex Michelsen will not be lacking of confidence with an important win over Brandon Nakashima under his belt and he will certainly feel he is serving well enough to give himself a chance.
The key may be to reverse the negative trajectory of his success on the return, but that will be challenging against someone like Frances Tiafoe who continues to perform above the level that the numbers may state. The higher Ranked of the two American players has been returning with more consistency than Alex Michelsen and that has proven to be the difference when these two have met two previous times on the Tour.
It does feel the return will be key again and Frances Tiafoe will be grateful he got off the court in straight sets in the Fourth Round after a grind. That should give him the time he needs to be refreshed and the expectation is that he can win a few more big points that can be the margin needed for success or failure in what is expected to be a very competitive match.
Win enough of those big points and it can lead to the sets needed and Frances Tiafoe can earn his victory through superior experience and perhaps a tie-breaker or two to avoid having to go really long in this Quarter Final.
MY PICKS: Aryna Sabalenka - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Frances Tiafoe - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
US Open Update: 27-17, + 9.48 Units (88 Units Staked, + 10.77% Yield)
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