Just when it looked like it was going to be the fourth time in a little over seven days when a player has failed to earn one more game than the spread, Alex Molcan did pick up a late break of serve to secure his victory in the Second Round.
That made it a positive start to the week, but a busy Thursday has not offered up many matches that have fallen within the parameters set in the pages that have resulted in a bounce back year.
The focus on the day is on a single selection from the two ATP tournaments being played in Estoril and Kitzbuhel and those can be read below.
Jaime Faria - 4.5 games v Gonzalo Bueno: One of the big home hopes has been eliminated, but Jaime Faria is going to be hitting a new career high World Ranking mark at the end of the tournament.
Another win would see Jaime Faria crack the top 80 for the first time and the Portuguese player will be given plenty of support in Estoril.
He is facing a Qualifier, but Gonzalo Bueno should be given enough respect for having come through a couple of those Rounds and then earning a win in the main draw. That was a win over a Portuguese Wild Card in the main draw and Gonzalo Bueno has to be given a lot of credit for fighting back from losing the second set 6-1 and hold himself together to win a final set tie-breaker.
This is a step up in terms of level of opponent, but a comfortable clay courter can always become a dangerous opponent once momentum is behind them.
Over the course of the season, Gonzalo Bueno has played at a lower level than the main ATP Tour and his numbers on the clay have been pretty average. This should encourage Jaime Faria who had won three Qualifying matches at the French Open and was still able to force his way through to the Third Round at that Grand Slam, and Faria has had a lot more success at this level compared with his opponent.
Before his win in the Second Qualifying Round in Estoril, Gonzalo Bueno had lost all six matches played against higher Ranked opponents on the clay courts in 2026. His serve has been put under pressure consistently in those matches and so Bueno is going to have to really step up to make this a competitive contest.
Jaime Faria has a 19-7 record on the clay when facing opponents that were Ranked lower than himself when they stepped onto the court and the numbers are much more solid than those produced by Gonzalo Bueno.
This is a big spread for any young player to deal with, but Jaime Faria should have the qualities needed on the court to eventually wear down Gonzalo Bueno.
Mariano Navone - 2.5 games v Quentin Halys: You cannot take anything away from Quentin Halys and the performances he has put together this week in Kitzbuhel, but he has been struggling for consistency over the last several months.
That has seen the World Ranking drop back outside of the top 80, while the Frenchman has a 10-7 record on the clay courts in 2026.
The serve remains a big weapon for him, even on the red dirt, but Quentin Halys has struggled to have a big impact on the return and that has ultimately proved to be a decisive factor in the results that have been placed on the board.
Next up is this Quarter Final against Mariano Navone who has looked very sharp through the opening couple of Rounds.
The higher Ranked player is the superior returner on the clay courts and that could be the key to this match, while Mariano Navone has beaten Quentin Halys on the clay courts around fifteen months ago.
On that day the World Number 47 was the much superior server and Mariano Navone can find his way through to the Semi Final with another decent win on the board.
MY PICKS: Jaime Faria - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 William Hill (1 Unit)
Mariano Navone - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 2-1, + 0.71 Units (3 Units Staked, + 23.67% Yield)
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