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Tuesday, 23 June 2020

Midweek Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2020 (June 23-25)

So how is everyone enjoying the return of the Premier League?

There is no doubt that things are not the same as we remember, and it did take a few matches to really build the interest but I do think most will be used to the 'new normal'.

Most importantly I do believe the players will be feeling more accustomed to playing in front of empty stands having done it once, or in some cases twice, although I do think the teams at the bottom of the table are suffering as I expected before the resumption. Without that push from the crowd, it is much harder for those clubs to bridge the talent gap to the sides they are facing and the limp manner in which Norwich City, Bournemouth and West Ham United were beaten at home this past weekend is worrying.

Aston Villa took a single point from two home games, but at least made a much greater effort than those three sides mentioned and I do believe the three relegated clubs will come from the four mentioned.

Things are still tight when it comes to the relegation battle and the race for the top four and European places so the whole outlook could change very quickly. With the fixtures staggered as they are, I do think the pressure will build on clubs in a different manner as you would expect if the schedule had played out as planned before the pandemic took over.


With another GW just a day after the previous one ended, it is another round of FPL that kicks off on Tuesday. The problem all players of the Official Fantasy game will be dealing with is the deadline comes at a time when not all the team news can be put together and that means second guessing things.

I will elaborate further on my plans below the thoughts for how this round of League fixtures will go.


Leicester City v Brighton Pick: Both Leicester City and Brighton are coming off of positive results and will be looking to build the momentum to take into the remaining Premier League games to be played.

For Leicester City it will also push them forward when it comes to a potential FA Cup success as they chase down one of the four Champions League places in the table. The late goal conceded to Watford would have hurt, but Leicester City will be happy with a positive result and the chance to maintain their lead over 5th placed Manchester United with one less game to be completed.

Playing at home should be a little more comfortable for Leicester City even if the early trend around the top European Leagues is that some of the advantage has been eroded without a crowd. I still believe that may affect the lesser talented squads more than the top teams though so I do expect Leicester City to have too much for Brighton on Tuesday in the first game of the latest round of fixtures.

That is no disrespect to a Brighton team coming off a big win over Arsenal and one that has proved to be stubborn to break down away from home in their most 'recent' games. Of course you can't really discuss that 3 game unbeaten run on their travels as form considering the last fixture was played three months ago, but Brighton have shown they can make life difficult so it will be up to the Leicester City players to find the motivation from within rather than from the stands.

The Foxes have won 3 of their last 5 games here in all competitions and during that time they have hit both West Ham United and Aston Villa for four goals. Brighton have shown themselves to be a slightly better defensive side than both of those, but the goalless draw at Wolves was only the third away clean sheet of the season.

Bournemouth and West Ham United both scored at least three goals against Brighton and Sheffield United created enough to believe they deserved more than the single strike in the previous 3 away games The Seagulls played before the draw at Wolves.

Brighton have lost twice in a row here and I think Leicester City will be able to create enough chances to win a game which features at least two goals.


Tottenham Hotspur v West Ham United Pick: This is a big game at the top and bottom of the Premier League as Tottenham Hotspur look to ignite a push for a European place and West Ham United try and move clear of the bottom three.

Neither team were at their best this past weekend in home games against Manchester United and Wolves respectively, but I do think the teams will be better for having a game in the legs.

At least Tottenham Hotspur earned a point to remain in touch with 5th placed Manchester United, but Jose Mourinho will know they need more from their remaining eight games to have a chance of getting into the Champions League. More realistic is playing in the Europa League and Spurs will know the importance of that from a financial perspective as they look to repay the debt which came from building this new Stadium.

Chances were not created easily against Manchester United, but Dele Alli is back and West Ham United don't defend nearly as well as Tottenham Hotspur's last opponents. Teams have been able to create plenty against this West Ham United defence and Tottenham Hotspur should be able to do the same.

However it is a rivalry game and West Ham United have had success when visiting Tottenham Hotspur in recent times. They have won 2 in a row in games hosted by Spurs including winning in this Stadium last season and David Moyes will be looking for a big reaction from his team.

The Hammers did look a little toothless in attack against Wolves though and I think Tottenham Hotspur might have more control of the match. The empty Stadium might help the visitors, but Tottenham Hotspur might be able to edge them out narrowly with their greater attacking threats that can be employed.

I feel Tottenham Hotspur will need to score twice to win though considering their own defence has been far from trustworthy and I do think they have enough to do that as they put the pressure on teams above them that play later this week.


Manchester United v Sheffield United Pick: With very little between teams from Chelsea down to Tottenham Hotspur, this was an early fixture which looked like it could be very important for both Manchester United and Sheffield United's dreams of getting into the Champions League.

That is how it looked at the resumption of the Premier League, but Sheffield United have taken a point from a possible six and Manchester United also could only add a point from their opening returning fixture. It means both clubs have slipped behind Chelsea who won at Aston Villa on Sunday and means both Manchester United and Sheffield United need a big result here.

A heatwave hitting the United Kingdom is not going to be helpful for the players despite the 6pm kick off time and it does suggest goals could be in short supply. Temperatures could feel as high as 31 degrees Celsius when this fixture kicks off and that means mistakes could prove pivotal on the day.

With the attacking players short of football, it may also give the chance for defences to be largely on top and especially when you think of the two teams involved in this one at Old Trafford.

However the key difference may be that Manchester United look to have a touch more options in the midfield and attack that could provide a moment of magic to turn things in their favour. Add to that the fact that Sheffield United could be missing as many as three of their regular defensive unit and the chances of mistakes being in the away side more than the home one seem to ramp up.

Chris Wilder will always make his team hard to beat and I won't read too much into the 3-0 loss at Newcastle United as the game was finely balanced before John Egan was sent off to reduce Sheffield United to ten men. Even then I do think the defensive record is perhaps better than it should be with chances that Sheffield United have allowed and Manchester United should punish a more unfamiliar line up that Wilder will have to use.

It won't be easy because Sheffield United are a disciplined team that won't roll over for any team they face. They have not been at their best in the first couple of games and Manchester United have had plenty of time to prepare and I fancy the home side win this one with a clean sheet.


Newcastle United v Aston Villa Pick: Hot weather has to be expected at this time of the year in England, but the heatwave due during the week will only make it harder for players who have had limited match fitness from the first few days of the restart of Premier League Football.

It might mean a slow game develops in the North East where Newcastle United host Aston Villa in what is looking to be a much bigger game for the visitors than the hosts.

That is not to say that Steve Bruce would be happy to lose the momentum picked up in the win over Sheffield United on Sunday. The manager was very pleased with the performance and Newcastle United have a big week in front of them as they host two more matches here, while Bruce himself will be looking to show any prospective new owner that he is the right manager to take Newcastle United forward.

Winning games and finishing in the top half of the Premier League will only add to Bruce's argument and he will be looking to keep the unbeaten run going at St James' Park. Newcastle United have been well organised as they have produced 5 clean sheets in a row at St James' Park and now host an out of form Aston Villa side who have to have had some confidence knocked in the early days of the restart of the Premier League.

A single point and a single goal from two home games is not good enough for Aston Villa who are fighting to get out of the bottom three. They haven't played badly, but Aston Villa continue to struggle to score enough goals or keep enough clean sheets and that is a big worry for any team looking to avoid the drop.

Aston Villa did not score in their last couple of away games which were played three months ago, but the bigger concern for Dean Smith has to be the lack of chances created in those defeats. They have looked better this past week, but breaking down Newcastle United will be far from easy and I think goals may be difficult to find.

The layers are perhaps not seeing things the same way as I expected the 'under 2.5 goals' market to be much shorter than it is. Both teams were involved in high-scoring games on Sunday, but Newcastle United only broke down a ten man opponent, while Aston Villa faced a strong attacking unit of Chelsea.

Neither team will believe they have the same circumstances going into this game and I think we will see two or fewer goals shared out. Before the win over Sheffield United, Newcastle United had seen their previous 4 games finish with one or fewer goals scored, while Aston Villa have seen 3 of their last 5 away from home go the same way.

The last 8 between Newcastle United and Aston Villa have ended with two or fewer goals shared out, while the last 5 between them at St James' Park have ended that way too.

With the heat around and the lack of strong attacks in this one, I think that has to be the most likely outcome of this fixture. I narrowly favour Newcastle United, but will look for a lack of goals no matter the result.


Norwich City v Everton Pick: Both Norwich City and Everton will still feel there are big things to aim for at the end of the 2019/20 season, but you can't help feel this is more important for the home team.

Norwich City were hammered 0-3 by Southampton on Friday and they looked like a team that didn't really believe nine games were enough to avoid relegation to the Championship. Now there are eight left and it is hard to see how Norwich City will be able to pick up enough points if they don't produce a much better effort in their home Stadium.

Defensively they were messy and some rustiness was evident in their attacking play when chances did pop up. Having a game in the legs might sharpen up Norwich City, but this is a team who might have to rely on out-scoring opponents with the defensive injuries they are dealing with through the remainder of the season.

Those injuries will make them vulnerable to an Everton team who will believe they have missed two big opportunities to beat Liverpool this season. The goalless draw on Sunday might have seen Liverpool dominate the ball and the action area, but Everton created the best chances and better finishing would have resulted in a big three points.

Carlo Ancelotti is still convinced a European place is within the grasp of Everton with a strong end to the season and three points here will be important if they can earn them here. Everton have not played well away from home in terms of results, but performances under the Italian have been improved and a bit more luck would have led to better results.

They have created chances, although Everton still look shaky defensively, and I think they will be confident. Having two days fewer to prepare might be an issue for Everton though and it makes me think they are a short enough price to win here which makes it unappealing.

I do wonder if the heat will have a negative impact on the goals markets in the coming days in England, but this is one game where both teams should take risks in order to earn the three points. Neither defence is the most convincing and both Norwich City and Everton do have attacking players that can create chances and score goals.

Before the loss to Southampton, Norwich City were involved in some low-scoring home games, but the defensive injuries balances that out. It was evident in the chances that Southampton created against them, while 9 of the last 11 Everton away games have finished with three or more goals shared out.

I can see both teams hitting the net, but the three points are important enough for both to believe spaces are going to be exploited in the final twenty minutes. That means I will be looking for three or more goals to be shared out between Norwich City and Everton on Wednesday.


Wolves v Bournemouth Pick: Both of these teams were involved in 0-2 scorelines on Saturday, but unfortunately for Bournemouth they were hosting the game against Crystal Palace. On the other hand Wolves were comfortable winners at West Ham United in a game that was lacking some quality until Adama Traore and Pedro Neto were brought on in the second half and sparked Wolves to a successful visit to East London.

They had been in fine form going into the suspension of European Football and Nuno Espirito Santo has to be pleased with the way his Wolves team played in controlling the game on Saturday. This is a team that can find things a little difficult in the final third despite all the aesthetically pleasing football they do tend to play and that is underlined by two goalless draws in their last 4 here.

Wolves are not easy to break down, but they want to be more if they want to be playing in the Champions League next season and this game with Bournemouth does present a big chance for them. Win and they will be 2 points behind Chelsea in 4th and knowing the West London club are hosting Manchester City on Thursday, but any dropped points on Wednesday could be fatal in their bid to earn a Champions League spot through their Premier League finish.

I do think Wolves create chances and in Raul Jimenez they have a striker who scores goals at this level, but I also think Bournemouth will be better than they were on Saturday.

Two early goals knocked the stuffing out of The Cherries and they didn't create an awful lot, but David Brooks was in good nick despite the long lay off. He should be ready to help Bournemouth out here and they will cause problems for Wolves if the home side are slightly off their game, although Eddie Howe's men are hard to trust at the back.

6 straight away Premier League losses can't be easily ignored and I do think the Portuguese players that Wolves have throughout their squad won't be worried about the potential heat the teams will be playing in. Bournemouth concede too many goals and it is hard to see that changing even with the squad bolstered in the three month lay off and so the feeling is that Wolves will win a game that features at least two goals.

In only one win at home this season have Wolves failed to score at least twice while 13 of the last 14 home wins secured in the Premier League have also seen Wolves score at least twice. That includes all 5 played this season and Bournemouth have conceded twice in 5 of their last 6 away Premier League games.

Last season this fixture ended 2-0 and I think that may be the most likely outcome of this one too.


Liverpool v Crystal Palace Pick: There is little doubt that Liverpool will eventually win the Premier League title, but the next eight games might be all about rebuilding fitness ahead of the 2020/21 campaign. There might be a very short pre-season between campaigns so this may be used as such by Jurgen Klopp whose side are perhaps days away from winning the title.

If Manchester City have dropped points on Monday, Liverpool can be confirmed Champions with a win over Crystal Palace, but Roy Hodgson's men have shown they are not one that will roll over for any opponent.

There were suggestions that the motivation may not be very high for a team in a safe position in the Premier League, but Crystal Palace deservedly beat Bournemouth at the weekend and may still have some European ambitions to fulfil.

It is still a long-shot to imagine that happening, but Crystal Palace will look to be organised and disciplined in what could be very hot conditions at Anfield on Wednesday evening.

Liverpool didn't look their sharpest in the goalless draw with Everton on Sunday and perhaps were fortunate to escape with a point, but they desperately missed the influence of Andrew Robertson and Mohamed Salah. Both could return on Wednesday and that should give Liverpool a bit more spark in the final third which was really lacking in the Merseyside derby.

Defensively they have largely been sound and this Crystal Palace team don't offer a major threat. Roy Hodgson's men will look to play on the counter, but in hot conditions in the second game back from the three month break, it may not be easy to keep that going when spending a lot of time chasing shadows around the pitch.

It is hard to think Liverpool will be pushing to blow out a Crystal Palace team that have been a stubborn opponent for them and the best selection here may be looking for the home team to win with a clean sheet. Crystal Palace have been difficult to break down, but they are not creating a host of chances and a narrow home win would not be a big surprise.


Burnley v Watford Pick: It was never going to be easy to take on Manchester City with a squad that had been stretched by injuries and those who are about to be out of contract and have yet to agree terms on a new deal. With that in mind it is perhaps not surprising that Burnley suffered the latest of their heavy defeats at the Etihad Stadium, although the players will also admit they were affected by issues beyond their control.

For some ridiculous, boneheaded, moronic reason some Burnley fans decided to pool together to have a plane fly a 'White Lives Matter' banner over the Etihad Stadium at kick off. There is the suggestion they were hoping the players would be disgusted enough to refuse to play during what has been the support given to the 'Black Lives Matter' movement that has spread through the United States and Europe.

Instead the Burnley players have admitted that the banner does not represent them and had also seen them lose some focus on the fixture ahead. It is not an excuse, but it was part of the problem for Burnley who were 3-0 down at half time and who only named seven substitutes instead of nine (and two were goalkeepers).

There isn't much time to prepare for this fixture against Watford who will have had more than 48 hours longer to prepare for the game.

With the motivation high as Watford continue to battle to avoid the drop, Nigel Pearson has to believe his side can take advantage of any tired legs in the Burnley dressing room. His team were the better of the two when facing Leicester City on Saturday and Watford arguably deserved more points than they got, although this is a team that have not been as strong on their travels as they have at Vicarage Road.

The empty stands might help Watford here and hinder Burnley and there seems to be a lot of factors in the favour of the relegation threatened club.

Watford won here last season to snap a 10 game run without a victory at Turf Moor, and the squad looks to be in a better shape. It is perhaps a surprise to see Watford as such a strong favourite here considering the away form, but the time they have had to prepare for this fixture compared with Burnley should give the visitors to make it consecutive wins at this ground.


Southampton v Arsenal Pick: Both clubs are coming off contrasting first weeks during the Premier League resumption after Arsenal lost both League games played and Southampton were big winners at Norwich City.

The fact that some think home advantage is lost with no fans in the Stadium might actually suit Southampton who have been better on their travels than at St Mary's during this season. It is something that they will be hoping for anyway as they get set to take on an Arsenal team who need some momentum before a big FA Cup Quarter Final coming up.

Mikel Arteta has been far from impressed in the manner of both defeats Arsenal have suffered this past week- losing to Manchester City because of defensive errors is still an issue, but conceding in injury time against a relegation threatened Brighton to lose a game Arsenal had led in is almost unforgivable.

There is still hope a strong end to the season will see Arsenal earn a spot back in the Europa League, but they have to be better at both ends of the pitch.

I do think they would create chances against this Southampton team in normal circumstances, but I am a touch concerned Arsenal will use a weaker team knowing how important the upcoming Cup tie is for them. Even then they have some talented youngsters that can expose the defensive shortcomings of this Southampton team and I do think The Gunners will pose problems for the hosts.

However Arsenal have looked messy at the back to say the least and Southampton have shown they can create chances against any opponent. The home team are not under pressure and so are likely to push forward and look to create chances and in players like Danny Ings and Nathan Redmond they have pace and quality in the final third.

I can understand why the layers have made Southampton favourites with some of the uncertainty about the Arsenal team selection which is going to be something to keep an eye on. However The Saints can offer some gifts at the back too and I think this may be another game between these two which features at least three goals shared out.

An early strike may be needed to just open things up in what are likely to be very hot conditions, but if that happens I can see both teams playing with some freedom. That should see them share out three goals on the day as has happened in 3 of the last 4 between these clubs.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: Some teams have struggled in the first round of games during 'Project Restart' but both Chelsea and Manchester City have managed to overcome slow starts to really build a groove.

Manchester City have hit eight goals in two games, but they are playing away from home for the first time since losing the Manchester derby back in March. Now they have to face a Chelsea team who came from behind to beat Aston Villa and are looking to keep their top four rivals at bay by picking up what would be an unexpected result.

Games between Chelsea and Manchester City have been a mixed bag in recent seasons, but the last couple of seasons have seen Manchester City win 5 of the last 7 in all competitions.

However when they have visited Stamford Bridge the games have been very competitive and the last 4 have seen both clubs win twice. It was Chelsea who got the better of Manchester City last season and they will have seen the chances that the visitors have allowed in recent away games.

On the other side Manchester City continue to create plenty, but the absence of Sergio Aguero is a blow. Gabriel Jesus isn't a bad replacement, but he is not as clinical as his South American team-mate and Pep Guardiola will need the likes of Riyad Mahrez, Raheem Sterling and Kevin De Bruyne to pick up the slack.

Both clubs have a FA Cup Quarter Final on deck which does cloud things- will the managers rotate their squads and will they perhaps prioritise the Cup game?

Frank Lampard is less likely to do that with Chelsea being chased for the Champions League spots and The Blues do look a big price to win at home. The younger squad might actually benefit from playing in front of an empty Stamford Bridge having been beaten 5 times here in the Premier League and being crushed by Bayern Munich 0-3 in the Champions League Second Round.

Chelsea should be able to create chances, but defensively they have also looked vulnerable and I would not be surprised another 2-1 scoreline between these clubs as we did at the Etihad Stadium earlier this season. My slight lean is towards Chelsea finding a result, but their defence is not trustworthy while Valencia, Liverpool, Manchester United (twice), Bayern Munich have all won here.

Manchester City are arguably the best of the lot to visit, but my selection for the game is the expectation of seeing at least three goals shared out. I expect both teams will score in this one, and neither manager looks like one that would settle for a draw unless the equaliser comes very late on.

Instead I expect both Chelsea and Manchester City to look to be positive and search out the win so expecting to see three or more goals shared out is my most confident selection.

MY PICKS: Leicester City & Over 1.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals
Manchester United Win to Nil
Newcastle United-Aston Villa Under 2.5 Goals
Norwich City-Everton Over 2.5 Goals
Wolves & Over 1.5 Goals
Liverpool Win to Nil
Watford 0 Asian Handicap
Southampton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals
Chelsea-Manchester City Over 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GW31+
The majority of FPL players looked to be playing their Bench Boost or Free Hit in GW30+ as the game returned, but I had my Triple Captain chip and using it on Kevin De Bruyne has turned out to be a reasonably good decision.

By far the worst call I made in GW30+ was including David Luiz in my team who not only was involved in conceding three goals at Manchester City, but managed to get himself sent off for a lovely - 3 total from two games!

Thankfully the majority of the other decisions paid off as expected and a return of 99 points with a Wild Card, Free Hit and Bench Boost all still to play is good enough for me.


So what is my plan? After careful thought I have decided I will use my Wild Card this week in creating a team that will be strong in both GW31+ and GW33+... With that in mind I would be using the Bench Boost Chip in GW33+ when some of the biggest clubs have good looking fixtures.

I honestly don't see a better way to do this and I then have the option of using my Free Hit either in GW32+ or another one. The team I am selecting looks like it has enough options to cover GW32+ too with some confidence and I am fairly happy with my decisions, while also thinking it may be a good idea to keep a hold of the Free Hit depending on whether any unexpected DGWs pop up.

It is unlikely though so the main plan is to still use the FH in GW32+ although that is something I will be thinking about in the next couple of days with the deadline for that GameWeek set for Saturday morning.


With a Wild Card in play you can imagine that there will be a number of changes right up until the deadline, but you can follow my Twitter page where I will list the final team moments after the deadline for GW31+ has passed.

What I will say is that the teams I am really focusing on to help me build my squad are Burnley, Chelsea, Leicester City, Liverpool, Manchester City, Manchester United, Newcastle United, Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves.

Obviously you have to bring in some players of 'lower' value to give the squad balance and that is where Brighton are a potential option knowing they play at Norwich City on GW33+ and the same goes for the hosts Norwich City with a 'winnable' game that weekend.

Everton are another team who have some decent stats to back their players, but who do face Tottenham Hotspur away from home in the weekend where I want to employ the Bench Boost.


Things will be chopped and changed as I have said, but my first interest was to build big from the back and not go huge with the strikers. Balancing the squad knowing the rotations the managers are using is not easy, but it is the way I want to use the Wild Card in a bid to maximise all of my remaining Chips as I look for a strong finish despite not being to use the Chips in the way I envisioned back in March.


Good luck to all players in the latest GameWeek and I will have more thoughts about GW32+ once I have concluded my Wild Card.

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