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Tuesday, 22 March 2016

Miami Tennis Picks 2016 (March 22nd)

The first of the two big events in North America was completed on Sunday with Victoria Azarenka and Novak Djokovic taking home the titles in Indian Wells. There were only a couple of days for the top players to recover before the Miami Open begins although the top Seeds won't be in action until later in the week having received a bye in the First Round.

The Indian Wells picks worked out well to get this season moving back in a positive direction, but it is all about building on that in the next week and a bit although I won't have full picks from this tournament as I will be jetting off to Las Vegas for the final four days of the event.

The WTA Premier Event will begin first as it did at Indian Wells, although the ATP Masters event will begin on Wednesday rather than Thursday as it did at the last tournament.

Margarita Gasparyan - 2.5 games v Annika Beck: There is only one place between these players in the World Rankings, but I think the upside in the Margarita Gasparyan game compared with Annika Beck will see the former surpass the latter shortly. At this point of their career there really isn't a lot between the players, but I think the Gasparyan power will be the difference maker in this First Round match in Miami.

There have been some similarities with the results both Gasparyan and Beck have achieved so far this season- both had a solid run at the Australian Open, but have struggled to really put the wins together since then. However, Gasparyan can at least point to a few successes in the early Rounds of events before bumping into one of the top Seeds and finding that a bridge too difficult to cross.

I can see Annika Beck having some success against her in this First Round match with an ability to get plenty of balls back in play. That will extract errors from an inconsistent Gasparyan but I also think the young Russian player will have quite a bit of joy attacking the Beck serve and that should see her come through this tough match.

It should be close at times and I can see a few games going to deuce and those big moments will determine which player goes through. I just feel Gasparyan will have the edge in terms of ability to hit through the court a little more and I like her to come through 63, 46, 64.

Danka Kovinic + 3.5 games v Denisa Allertova: When the First Round draw was made, I thought the First Round match between Denisa Allertova and Danka Kovinic would be close to a pick 'em contest. However the layers have leaned quite convincingly towards Allertova and I am not sure I am of the same opinion.

In my opinion, Danka Kovinic is the more likely winner of the two players so having a chance to get a significant number of games on her side is hard to ignore.

There is no doubt that we will see a number of breaks of serve from both players who have the ability to really get after the return, but perhaps don't have the biggest serves on Tour. It is no surprise that two players between Number 50 and Number 55 in the World Rankings have had some inconsistent results this season, although you would have to lean towards Allertova in getting the better wins under her belt.

However I do think Kovinic showed in Indian Wells that she is capable of plenty too and I won't at all be surprised if we need three sets to separate these players. I have a real belief that Kovinic can win this match outright, but taking the games looks to be the better way in backing her in the hope that the match is as close as I think it will be.

MY PICKS: Margarita Gasparyan - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Danka Kovinic + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Indian Wells Final: 27-17, + 15.74 Units (88 Units Staked, + 17.89% Yield)

Season 2016- 30.20 Units (548 Units Staked, - 5.51% Yield)
Season 2015- 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014+ 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

1 comment:

  1. Went here for a great all-you-can-eat buffet and they held nothing back. The food, service and mostly the staff from party venues were truly amazing. I was starving and am one of those voracious "sampling" type eaters who has to try everything in a buffet, and I couldn't make it!