Weekend Football Picks 2014 (December 6-8)

This is fun- rather than the two week international breaks which has most wishing they could sleep through, we have another round of Premier League games to look forward to this weekend. This is the time of the season that the football just keeps coming, but I don't think too many fans will be complaining outside of the ridiculous times for some of the games, including Manchester United's trip to the South coast to take on Southampton on Monday Night Football.


There is plenty of live football through the weekend and things are really beginning to shake up in the League table as teams begin to find their place and expectations for the rest of the campaign.

Oh, and it's Third Round FA Cup weekend which I cannot wait for on Monday evening.


Newcastle United v Chelsea Pick: I have mentioned a couple of times that I am not convinced that Chelsea should be anointed Champions Elect already in the Premier League and the improving form of Manchester City has highlighted that. In saying that, Chelsea do have a healthy lead at the top of the table, although I am interested to see how they can perform in a tough away venue like St James' Park.

Chelsea have already earned draws at Manchester City and Manchester United and won at Everton so I don't think they won't have the belief they can win here, but Newcastle United have also been playing very well at home.

Since that loss to Manchester City to open the season, Newcastle United are unbeaten in 5 home game and have won 3 in a row and I have little doubt that they will have a go at Chelsea. It might not be the best idea to over-commit as Chelsea have a very good counter-attacking team, although the absence of Nemanja Matic does see them lose a very effective shield in front of the back five.

Matic's absence may give Newcastle more of a chance to exploit Chelsea through the middle of the park where the Magpies have some power, but injuries to the defence are going to be tough to hide for Alan Pardew. With Diego Costa back up front, Chelsea will feel they will take the chances that come their way and Jose Mourinho doesn't have to worry about the Champions League games that are to come during the week.

It won't be an easy game for Chelsea, but I can see them covering the one goal Asian Handicap with their counter-attack producing a killer goal if Newcastle go in search of an equaliser.


Liverpool v Sunderland Pick: There has been something of a corner turned at Liverpool, and that is not me making a joke about their search for a title over the last twenty-five years, and they will look for a little more momentum to take into the vital Champions League game against Basel on Tuesday evening.

Facing a Sunderland team fresh off a hammering at the hands of Manchester City may seem like a good chance for Liverpool to keep the winning run going, but the Black Cats are a better team than they displayed that night.

There have been times that Sunderland have looked pretty pathetic on their travels this season, none more so than when humiliated 8-0 at Southampton, but I am not completely convinced that Liverpool are completely back on track. However, Rickie Lambert has been a bit of an inspiration up front and Liverpool have scored 6 goals in their last 3 games and that might give them the confidence to put Sunderland to the sword at Anfield.

This is a tough stretch for Sunderland who have only scored 2 goals in their last 4 games and I think they have to be a little fatigued after hosting the two best teams in the Premier League over the last seven days. That might result in Liverpool building some steam behind them to take into the Champions League and winning this game by a couple of goals.


Queens Park Rangers v Burnley Pick: This looks a fascinating game and one where both Harry Redknapp and Sean Dyche will have confidence in Queens Park Rangers and Burnley respectively and their ability to pick up the points. Both teams will look to avoid the ignominy of being bottom of the Premier League table on Christmas morning and a win in this game will give them a great chance of being able to do that.

Queens Park Rangers have been a very different team at home than on their travels and they continue to score plenty of goals at Loftus Road. While I think both teams will have their chances to win this game, I am focusing on QPR and their ability to score a couple of goals in this one at least.

I picked QPR to do that against Leicester City last weekend and that also means the home team have scored at least twice in their last 5 home games in the Premier League. And they are facing a Burnley team that had conceded at least twice in 3 straight away games before somehow restricting Stoke City to just one goal despite being under pressure for much of the second half of that game.

When the teams met last season, Queens Park Rangers scored three times against Burnley and failed to win that game at home and I prefer backing the home team to score at least twice at a bigger price than them winning the game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace Pick: I am probably one of the harsher critics of Tottenham Hotspur out there and I simply don't see them as a threat to finish in the top four this season, although they are only 5 points behind Manchester United in 4th place.

Inconsistent results and performances makes it hard to have belief in Tottenham, while this is a team that seems to drop their heads against the best teams in the Premier League as shown by heavy losses at Manchester City and Chelsea.

Spurs have also lost 4 of their last 6 Premier League games at White Hart Lane, but they will be hoping the come from behind win over Everton last weekend can spark an upturn in fortunes in front of their own fans. Talk that they are not happy playing here won't help and Crystal Palace have the pace up front to cause some real problems for Tottenham if they are given any sort of encouragement here.

However, I am not a fan of Neil Warnock by any stretch of the imagination and there has to be a real disappointment that they were beaten by Aston Villa at home during the week. Crystal Palace did earn a decent draw at Swansea last week, but all the reports suggested the home team should have won comfortably. However, it has to be said that Crystal Palace have been tough to beat on their travels and the first goal is going to be critical in this one.

If Tottenham Hotspur score first, I can see them winning this game fairly comfortably as long as Harry Kane can continue to provide the work rate up front that keeps the fans on board. A goal for Palace may make it very difficult for the home team, but I do like Spurs to win this by a couple of goals.


Manchester City v Everton Pick: On current form, it would be a real surprise if Manchester City don't continue riding the momentum and grab yet another win. However, Everton are a side that have to be respected as they have some pace and power in the forward positions to make life difficult as the likes of Manchester United have found already.

While Everton did perform well at Old Trafford, they did lose that game and needed a late goal to avoid a loss at Liverpool, while the 2-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur last weekend has to be a disappointment. Playing well is one thing, but Everton are conceding too many goals and that is tough to overcome.

It was one of my chief complaints about Roberto Martinez as a manager- Wigan Athletic conceded too many goals and Everton this year are making a lot of mistakes at the back, even if they are missing a couple of key personnel.

With Sergio Aguero playing as well as he is at the moment, those mistakes will be magnified in this game and I can only see Manchester City being too strong for Everton.

I wouldn't be surprised if Everton score here having done that in their last 8 away games i the Premier League and also in 7 of their last 8 games at the Etihad Stadium. Manchester City have looked suspect defensively at times all season and the injury to Vincent Kompany could mean Everton have success attacking them, but I can't see anything but a Manchester City win.

Therefore, I think there is some interest in backing Manchester City to win a game that has either three or four goals shared by the sides- with the game against Roma coming up, Manuel Pellegrini may 'call off the dogs' if Manchester City are ahead by a couple of goals, but I think Everton may join the party too and that is my pick.


West Ham United v Swansea Pick: Over the last few weeks, the Premier League can't say it has been found wanting when it comes to decent games for the television cameras and this looks like another one that could produce a few goals for the neutrals tuning in on Sunday afternoon.

After all the negative feelings around Upton Park for the last couple of seasons, West Ham United have come flying out of the blocks this season and some fans may even be dreaming of European football next season. Goals haven't been a problem for the Hammers for the most part and they have been winning plenty of games too.

It is something of a surprise that West Ham have actually found it more difficult at home in recent games, but they have some of their attacking players returning for this one and I would expect them to cause Swansea problems.

On the other hand, the pace that the Swans have in the forward positions is likely to be a big source of concern for Sam Allardyce too, especially on the counter-attack. West Ham actually have a few clean sheets from their home games this season, but they are not a watertight unit and Wilfried Bony would expect to have more luck in front of goal than he did in the win over Queens Park Rangers during the week.

With the strong home record that West Ham have against Swansea in recent years, I would perhaps favour them to win the game, but I wouldn't be surprised if there are at least three goals shared by the teams in the game. While the home team are a big price, I do feel more comfortable picking there being goals in this game and odds against.


Southampton v Manchester United Pick: It can be easy to try and read too much into a single game of football at times, but this is a huge game for Southampton and Manchester United in terms of momentum with the sides trending in opposite directions in recent games.

For Ronald Koeman and Southampton, a third consecutive defeat would just underline why the Saints had so many naysayers and it could really see the side spiral out of control over a festive period where there is no time for reflection and change as games come thick and fast.

On the other hand, Louis Van Gaal and Manchester United will look to ride the momentum of four wins on the bounce and prove their top four credentials by beating a team that is higher than them in the League table at this moment in time. A defeat for Manchester United may raise a few doubts for the fans, especially considering the early struggles away from Old Trafford.

It is possible that could lead to a tight game, but Manchester United have looked vulnerable in defence, even while winning games, and Southampton will be expected to attack a lot more than they did for much of the game at Arsenal. That would open things up for the attacking talent that Manchester United undoubtedly possess and could make this a game that has a few goals involved.

I am finding it quite hard to separate the teams in terms of a winner and it may come down to which team has the better composure in front of goal to determine that, while the prices at the layers suggest they don't really know which way this game will go. Manchester United are always going to give opposition chances with the way they have defended this season, but Southampton could be short of confidence and had an inspired Fraser Forster to thank for their team only conceding once at Arsenal.

I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams hitting the back of the net in this one and this is a fixture that had produced five straight games involving at least three goals before last season. At close to odds against, I am expecting this one to return to that trend as both teams look for a vital three points.

MY PICKS: Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Queens Park Rangers Over 1.5 Team Goals @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City to Win and 3 or 4 Total Goals in the Match @ 3.20 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Ham United-Swansea Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Southampton-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.98 Bet Victor (2 Units)

December Update: 3-4, + 0.16 Units (11 Units Staked, + 1.45% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 45-79, - 37.58 Units (208 Units Staked, - 18.07% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)