Monday, 16 June 2014

Tennis Picks 2014 (June 16th)

Last week is usually the time when the big names from the men's game take to the court for their sole preparation for Wimbledon in competitive grass court action and this week it is the biggest names in the women's game that get going. Aside from Serena Williams, Na Li and Maria Sharapova, most of the stars of the WTA Tour head down to Eastbourne including Victoria Azarenka who has recovered from an injury that saw her miss out on the French Open.

I tend to stay away from the outright picks in the final week before a Grand Slam tournament because I do feel that factor alone makes it hard to get a total read on motivation for players. That is especially the case if a player is down a set and how much desire they have to fight back and expend energy they might want to reserve for the next big tournament which begins in seven days time.


Last week also looked to be a terrible one for the picks as I just couldn't seem to catch a break from the picks I was making, but both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer won tournaments as they helped recover the losses and actually end the week with some more positive results to add to the season. Hopefully this week won't see my picks having such a torrid time, especially with no outright picks to save the week, but it is a new game and will bring some momentum into the third Grand Slam of the season.


Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Alison Riske: The grass courts have certainly been a surface that Alison Riske has enjoyed with her decent serve and power shots really skidding off the court and enabling her to win plenty of matches.

She had a run to the Third Round in Birmingham last week and should give Angelique Kerber plenty to think about, although I do think the German's defence will extract enough errors from Riske's game to help her move through to the Second Round.

Kerber isn't solely a defensive player as she too also has a decent serve and penetrating groundstrokes, so it is something of a surprise to me that so many breaks of serve were achieved when they met at the Australian Open back in January.

I am guessing the grass courts will mean we don't see as many breaks as in that match, but I still think Kerber can win another one against Riske and come through 64, 64.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: After reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon last season, and previously also playing in her sole Grand Slam Final on the grass courts, Agnieszka Radwanska should be feeling confident she can have another big run at the next Grand Slam beginning next week.

It would be nice for Radwanska to get some tennis under her feet on the surface, although her early exit didn't bother her a year ago in Easbourne, and I do think the match up with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is a good one for the Pole.

Radwanska can frustrate Pavlyuchenkova and that leads to errors with the Russian trying to play that much closer to the lines. I also think the grass courts can expose some of the limited movement of Pavlyuchenkova and I really don't think she is as comfortable on this surface as the other ones we see on the Tour during the season.

With that in mind, I expect a tight first set to be won by Radwanska who can then pull away in the match for a 64, 62 win.


Tamira Paszek v Su-Wei Hsieh: Tamira Paszek still loves playing on the grass and she has come through the qualifiers in Eastbourne which should just help her feel a little more confident of winning this First Round match against fellow qualifier Su-Wei Hsieh.

Out of the two players, you would have to say that Paszek has the better grass court pedigree as this is probably her favourite portion of the season and I was surprised that the layers only make a small favourite to win the match outright.

Hsieh has also qualified for the event so can't be totally disregarded, but Paszek should have too much in the locker to move through to the Second Round.


Ivo Karlovic v Jeremy Chardy: This isn't a match that I would be predicting to see too many breaks of serve, but Eastbourne is a venue where Ivo Karlovic has won the title before and he has been playing some good tennis over the last couple of months.

The conditions should favour the big serving of Karlovic and we all saw how Jeremy Chardy couldn't hand that when losing to Sam Querrey at Queens last week. The Frenchman is a solid player on grass, but his return game can be erratic and it may be tough for him to really get involved if Karlovic is serving to the level he has been of late.

Karlovic did suffer a loss in Halle in straight sets when losing two tie-breakers, but I think his serve is 'safer' than Chardy's and that may make the difference in critical moments in the match.

We could see three tie-breakers in this one, but Ivo Karlovic's ability to get to the net may win the match for him.

MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.81 Unibet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.81 Unibet (2 Units)
Tamira Paszek @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Daily Final: 10-19, - 18.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 32.31% Yield)
Weekly Outright Final2-2, + 23 Units (11 Units Staked, + 209% Yield)

Season 2014+ 51.86 Units (876.5 Units Staked, + 5.92% Yield)

Season 2013+ 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012+ 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011+ 82.02 Units

2 comments:

  1. Paszek - Hsieh is Q final match, and Paszek gonna play Wimbledon Q tomorrow.

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    1. Thanks, I only realised that this morning- poor research on my behalf to be honest

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