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Tuesday, 27 May 2014

French Open Day 3 Picks 2014 (May 27th)

I had been waiting for a real big surprising result at the French Open for most of the first two days, but it came down to the Number 3 Seed in the men's draw to provide the first big moment in the tournament.

Stan Wawrinka looked to have a decent draw, albeit with an opponent in the First Round that could have tested him, but the Australian Open Champion was far below his average form and crumbled out of the event in four sets. The rash of unforced errors in the match which surpassed 60 in number was too much for the Swiss Number 1 to overcome and it is by far and away the biggest result in either men's or women's event so far.

Kei Nishikori also exited the event, which may have been a surprise if taking his title win in Barcelona and Runner Up spot in Madrid in isolation, but the injury suffered in the latter of those tournaments made him a vulnerable Seed here.

You can still read my outright picks and preview of both men's and women's tournament here.

The First Round matches are scheduled to be completed on Tuesday as long as the weather forecast holds out for the majority of the day as expected. A lot of the matches look difficult to call so I have made just the four picks from the play scheduled and will be looking to improve on a Monday that proved profitable.

Philipp Kohlschreiber - 7.5 games v Pere Riba: After winning the tournament in Dusseldorf on Saturday, Philipp Kohlschreiber has had the benefit of the schedule in not starting his French Open campaign until Tuesday and that should have him ready for this First Round match.

It hasn't been the best of clay court campaigns for Kohlschreiber over the last couple of months, although the title win last week will have boosted the confidence.

I also think he has a decent beginning to the tournament against Pere Riba- while the Spaniard favours the clay courts, Riba has a very comfortable game to play against and I expect Kohlschreiber to have a little too much power and consistency for Riba to deal with.

My concern is the lack of concentration that Kohlschreiber can have at times, even when he seemingly has a match in control, which may lead to a silly dropped set. However, Riba will be presenting plenty of chances for the German to break serve I feel and I like Kohlschreiber to move through with a 63, 63, 64 win.

Andy Murray - 7.5 games v Andrey Golubev: The exit of Stanislas Wawrinka may just have opened the door for Andy Murray to make his way back to the French Open Semi Final, although the clay is certainly his weakest surface.

I still would expect him to be far too good for Andrey Golubev who has a decent serve, but who struggles with the consistency off the ground when playing on the main Tour. Those inconsistencies should be highlighted by someone like Andy Murray who can force Golubev to play one more shot and will also make sure he forces his opponent to earn his points.

With the damp conditions around Roland Garros, Golubev may find it that much harder to hit through Murray and I would expect the Brit to come through fairly handily when it is all said and done.

Dustin Brown v Marinko Matosevic: He is claiming to be a little more patient on a tennis court these days, but Dustin Brown's game will unlikely make drastic changes from the power and high risk tennis we have seen from him in the past.

Even then, it is surprising that the majority of his success on the main Tour over the last few seasons have come on the clay courts and Brown may have something in the locker to surprise Marinko Matosevic.

The Australian makes far too many mistakes and may give Brown some confidence if he brings that tennis to the court on Tuesday in this First Round match, and those errors are highlighted on the clay courts where the longer rallies tend to develop.

Matosevic has a poor record on the clay courts over the last two years, but he is rightly the favourite considering the erratic nature of Brown and the performances he brings. However, I think a small interest on Brown considering the relative success he has had on the clay courts may be worth having in this match, especially if he can display some of the patience Brown claims he is bringing onto the court these days.

Simona Halep - 6.5 games v Alisa Kleybanova: Anyone who has read my outright picks from the tournament from above will know I am expecting a big tournament from Simona Halep after her performances during the last twelve months.

That will all begin with this First Round match and I would expect the Romanian to beat Alisa Kleybanova without too many problems as long as she has overcome her injury from Rome that forced a withdrawal.

It is still really good to see Kleybanova back on the Tour after her treatment for Hodgkin's Lymphoma, but her movement was never the best on the clay courts and I think that is where Halep will force the errors to win the match.

Kleybanova did prove she can be a handful on the clay courts when she beat Petra Kvitova in April, but Halep has been playing at an extremely high level over the last few months which has seen her reach the World Number 4 Ranking, and I think Halep wins 63, 62.

MY PICKS: Philipp Kohlschreiber - 7.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 7.5 Games @ 1.92 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Dustin Brown @ 2.50 Coral (1 Unit)
Simona Halep - 6.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)

French Open Update: 2-1, + 1.20 Units (6 Units Staked, + 20% Yield)

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