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Wednesday, 9 November 2011

NFL Week 10 Picks and Previews

Week 9 Thoughts
1) San Francisco are the cream of the NFC West: This is obvious considering they already hold a big lead in the otherwise poor Division, and they look on course to securing a Play Off spot way before the end of the season.

Their record also means they are in a good position to secure the Number 2 seed in the NFC and thus earning one bye week and also a Divisional Championship game at Candlestick Park.

5 of their last 8 games are very winnable as they are against fellow teams from the NFC West and I would not be surprised at all if they are the one of the top two seeds come January.

2) The teams from the respective North Divisions control entry to the Play Offs through the Wild Cards: The AFC North and NFC North are arguably the best two Divisions in the NFL (although the AFC East and NFC South have arguments against that statement).

Both Divisions have 3 teams with winning records and, if the Play Offs were to begin this week, both Divisions would have 3 teams in the Play Offs.

The problem for these teams is that they have to play each other so often in a 16 game season that at least one is going to have too many losses to get through to the Play Offs unless they can essentially win most of their non-Divisional games.

This week we have the Steelers going to Cincinnati and the Lions going to Chicago and those are the kind of games that could determine who makes the Play Offs and who wont.

3) What is wrong with the New England Patriots?: Well to start off, the Patriots are still in good shape in the AFC East with their 5-3 record, but they have lost back to back games and have not been playing well on either side of the ball.

Tom Brady is not getting the protection from his Offensive Line and has looked a little confused in defeats to Pittsburgh and the New York Giants, while the Defense couldn't stop anybody right now.

They are in a tough Division with the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets both with the same record, and the trip to the Jets this week is a huge game for New England.

The bottom line for New England is they need their Offense to play great football all the time if they to win games, and anything less means their 32nd ranked Defense is expected to do something they haven't managed to all season.

It was also telling that Bill Belichick decided to kick an onside kick against Pittsburgh at Heinz Field recently in a game they were trailing by 5 points and with 3 timeouts in his pocket- the Head Coach did not believe in his Defense and no team has been successful with a Defense that has struggled as the Patriots have this season.

4) Indianapolis in pole position for the Number 1 Pick: Miami became the 31st team this season to win a game and thus leave the Colts as the only team yet to win a game and in the pole position to win the Andrew Luck 'sweepstakes'.

The last couple of games for the Colts have been brutal to say the least, they have struggled on both sides of the ball and a few of their veteran players have looked a little disinterested in helping this team move forward.

Peyton Manning is unlikely to return this season and I am not entirely sure how he will feel playing with his replacement already at the franchise, but Luck looks a little too good to bypass and it does pose some interesting questions for the future.

Curtis Painter was pulled in the last game against the Falcons as he struggled throughout that game and it will be interesting to see how they perform against a Divisional rival in the form of Jacksonville at home this week.

I thought the team looked desperate for their bye week, but this looks like one of their few remaining winnable games this season if they dont want to suffer the ignominy of going through a season without a single win.

Power Rankings Top 10
1) Green Bay Packers (8-0): The Defense is a concern, but remain the team everyone needs to beat
2) San Francisco 49ers (7-1): They keep winning, but a big test awaits this week as the Giants come to town.
3) New York Giants (6-2): Beating the Patriots with that last 90 second drive was impressive
4) Baltimore Ravens (6-2): Sweeping the Steelers gives them control of the AFC North
5) Cincinnati Bengals (6-2): Big test against Pittsburgh this week
6) Detroit Lions (6-2)
7) New Orleans Saints (6-3): Great in the Dome, but much more beatable on the road
8) Pittsburgh Steelers (6-3): Swept by the Ravens will hurt, but can get back on the horse at Cincinnati
9) Houston Texans (6-3): Control of the AFC South as they close in on their first Play Off appearance in franchise history
10) Chicago Bears (5-3): Looked so good in their last 3 wins including an impressive one on the road at Philadelphia on Monday Night Football

My Top 5 and Bottom 5
1) Green Bay Packers                             32) Indianapolis Colts
2) Baltimore Ravens                                31) St Louis Rams
3) Pittsburgh Steelers                              30) Arizona Cardinals
4) New Orleans Saints                             29) Seattle Seahawks
5) San Francisco 49ers                            28) Miami Dolphins

Week 10 Picks and Previews
I will update this during the week as the picks are locked in.

You can follow me on Twitter where I will update whenever new picks are locked in, while also remember that the first Thursday Night game of the season will take place this week.

Oakland Raiders @ San Diego Chargers Pick and Preview ( http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12371-Oakland-Raiders-at-San-Diego-Chargers.htm)

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12390-Pittsburgh-Steelers-at-Cincinnati-Bengals.htm)

Tennessee Titans @ Carolina Panthers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12391-Tennessee-Titans-at-Carolina-Panthers.htm)

Buffalo Bills @ Dallas Cowboys Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12392-Buffalo-Bills-at-Dallas-Cowboys.htm)

Baltimore Ravens @ Seattle Seahawks Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12393-Baltimore-Ravens-at-Seattle-Seahawks.htm)

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12394-New-York-Giants-at-San-Francisco-49ers.htm)

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12395-Detroit-Lions-at-Chicago-Bears.htm)

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12396-Jacksonville-Jaguars-at-Indianapolis-Colts.htm)

Houston Texans @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12397-Houston-Texans-at-Tampa-Bay-Buccaneers.htm)

Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick and Preview (http://goonersguide.com/football-pick-12398-Arizona-Cardinals-at-Philadelphia-Eagles.htm)

MY PICKS: San Diego Chargers - 7 Points @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers - 3 Points @ 1.83 BetFred (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
New York Giants + 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 3 Points @ 2.00 BetFred (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Victor Chandler (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 14 Points @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)

WEEK 9: 6-2, + 7.04 Units
WEEK 8: 3-5, - 6.44 Units
WEEK 75-4, - 2.61 Units
WEEK 64-4-1, - 2.24 Units
WEEK 55-3, + 3.15 Units
WEEK 4: 4-7, - 6.66 Units
WEEK 3: 4-3-1, + 2.77 Units
WEEK 2: 3-5, - 5.03 Units
WEEK 1: 4-2, + 2.53 Units

SEASON UPDATE: 38-35-2, - 7.49 Units

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