In a week that has been as strong as this one it can be difficult to be too down on any Tennis Picks made, but I was left a little frustrated on Thursday when both Kiki Bertens and Timea Babos got into a position to win and cover in their matches, but both failed to do that and actually exited the tournament in Linz.
Wins from those two Picks and this would have been an exceptional day rather than a very good one and there are more positive numbers to put down.
We now reach the Quarter Final matches at all of the events being played this week and I have a number of Tennis Picks from those matches in a bid to put an exclamation mark on the week. These matches will take place across the four events being played and over a huge amount of hours with the time differences at the tournaments meaning it is a long day of tennis for those fans who plan on watching all of the Quarter Final matches.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The opening Quarter Final match in Shanghai is played between two of the younger players leading the way forward for the 'Next Generation' on the ATP Tour.
Both Alexander Zverev and Kyle Edmund have looked strong in their runs in Shanghai and I do think the two players will both be very confident in their ability to win this match. The mental edge may be with Zverev who has won all three previous matches against Edmund, but he won't be overlooking someone who reached the Semi Final at the Australian Open earlier in 2018.
The last match between Zverev and Edmund was also very close on the clay courts, although I do think that might be a surface that favours Edmund more than the faster hard courts. The performances in Shanghai have been very good from Edmund, but this is another step up in class for the British player who remains an outside shot to make the World Tour Finals with a strong end to the 2018 season.
It has been the return game that has really helped Edmund but he is going to be facing a Zverev serve that has proved to be very potent on this surface throughout 2018. I do think Zverev is going to have to serve very well to make sure he is in a position to make it through to the Semi Final after saving a number of break points in his first two matches in this tournament.
However Edmund has had to save plenty of break points of his own and I do think the Zverev return is the better of the two players on the court. He should be able to exert a little more pressure in the match and I think that will see Zverev continue his run and also confirm his place at the World Tour Finals with a Semi Final berth likely to be enough to do that here this week.
Roger Federer - 2.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Having not played any competitive tennis since the surprisingly early exit at the US Open may be having an effect on the Roger Federer performances so far in Shanghai this week. He has shown the battling qualities that have helped Federer have so much success in his career, but I am sure he also appreciates he has to be a lot better if he is going to win this match.
In this Quarter Final Federer takes on Kei Nishikori who reached the Final in Tokyo last week and who has backed that up with a good couple of wins here in Shanghai.
You have to like what Nishikori brings to the court against Federer with a strong return game likely to put some pressure on the Number 1 Seed. So far this week we have not seen the best of Federer when it comes to the serve and that is an area Nishikori will be looking to exploit with his ability to make enough balls and force Federer to go for closer and closer to the line.
The problem for Nishikori is going to be the same one he has whenever he faces one of the top players on the Tour and that is whether he can get enough out of his own serve to at least get through some games without stresses. It just isn't a weapon that will put fear into opponents and Federer has been very good at attacking the Nishikori serve when they have faced one another.
Nishikori hasn't really been tested on his serve this week and I do think Federer holds the edge in the match thanks to his own serve likely producing one or two 'easier' games compared with Nishikori. That should prove to be the difference on the day, but Federer has to raise his level after barely coming through the first couple of matches in Shanghai and needing three sets to overcome both Daniil Medvedev and Roberto Bautista Agut.
It should be a fun Quarter Final for the fans to enjoy, but I will be backing Roger Federer to come through with a win and a cover.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Update: 17-7, + 16.18 Units (50 Units Staked, + 32.36% Yield)
Friday, 12 October 2018
Thursday, 11 October 2018
NFL Week 6 Picks 2018 (October 11-15)
The 2018 NFL season has been a good one through the first quarter of the season, but I haven't been spending time patting myself on the back.
Even if I had been the Week 5 I have just suffered through will be a reminder that things can change quickly in the NFL and I am pretty disappointed with my selections to be perfectly frank.
I would love to say I was simply unfortunate, but that would make it difficult to grow from the Picks I made and make sure I am not allowing a loose criteria to be hit.
With that in mind I am expecting much better as we move into Week 6 when the first of the three consecutive London Games are played. This was supposed to be the week when Tottenham Hotspur hosted their first NFL game, but a delay in the Stadium opening means the Oakland-Seattle game has shifted back to Wembley Stadium.
At least the teams' plans won't have been affected too much with the location very similar and so hotels and events booked can still take place as expected. Both teams are coming over from the West coast and it will be interesting to hear what players and Coaches think about the drastic shift in time zone especially with the belief the NFL are still pushing for a franchise to land in London within the next five years.
I have been pretty opposed to that idea for some time, but the NFL continues to try and expand its boundaries in an era when so many feel the sport is one that may not be around for the long-term with all the new rules and a better scientific idea as to what players are going through to entertain the fans.
Week 6 begins with a NFC East Divisional Game on Thursday Night Football and the selection for the Sunday/Monday games will be coming out later this week. The NFL Week 6 post will be the 'Featured Post' this week and I will put out a link on Twitter once the full selections for the week have been made.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: In recent years the NFC East was considered one of the stronger Divisions in the NFL, but that has not been the case in the opening five weeks of the 2018 NFL season. The Washington Redskins loss to the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football means none of the teams in the NFC East have a winning record going into Week 6 and two of those teams scratching to get back up to 0.500 will be playing on Thursday Night Football.
It has been a much more difficult season for the New York Giants to this point with the questions surrounding Eli Manning's suitability at Quarter Back being raised by the Gotham media on a weekly basis. Odell Beckham Jr's comments ahead of the Carolina game in Week 5 hasn't helped Manning's position and it does feel like this is going to be a lost season for the Giants who were undone in Carolina by a 60 plus yard Field Goal as time ran out.
The defending Champions Philadelphia Eagles have been erratic since winning the Super Bowl and a home loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday means they are 2-3, but only 0.5 games out of the Division lead. There still looks to be enough talent to think the Eagles are going to be the team to come out of the NFC East, but they have to play with a little more care as mistakes continue to put them in a difficult position within games.
Jay Ajayi was traded from the Miami Dolphins twelve months ago, but the Running Back has long had issues with his knees and unfortunately suffered an ACL injury in Week 5 which will rule him out for the season. That is a blow for the Philadelphia Eagles who could potentially go back into the trade market before the deadline at the end of the month, but I do think the Eagles will be able to still make plays on the ground in this game on Thursday Night Football.
With some of the misdirection Philadelphia run on the ground, they should be able to take advantage of a New York Defensive Line who have struggled to stop the run all season. There has been some improvement from the Giants in recent games, but they are still giving up well over 4 yards per carry and I do think Philadelphia will look to establish the ground attack to open things up for Carson Wentz at Quarter Back.
Wentz has played ok, but he was going to have some inconsistent moments off the back of an injury that meant he missed the end of the 2017 season and the start of the 2018 one. He has made some very good plays, but Wentz would love to have some more protection from the Offensive Line which has played erratically, although his numbers through the air are still very good.
In this one Wentz may have a little more time with the Giants struggling for a consistent pass rush, while the Secondary have been torched in the last three games and almost giving up 300 passing yards per game.
I do think the Eagles will move the chains with some consistency throughout this Divisional Game, but the Defensive unit need to pick up their play too. The strength of the Defense is on the Defensive Line where the Eagles will figure they can put the clamps down on Saquon Barkley while also getting some significant pressure on Eli Manning who is playing behind an Offensive Line that needs a lot of fixing.
However I do think the Receivers the Giants will be running out on the field could get loose and it is up to Manning to find them having put up some decent numbers against the Carolina Panthers last week. The Eagles have been susceptible to some big passing plays and I do think the Giants can expose those holes even if Manning is not up the level he was when the team won two Super Bowls.
Picking a winner on the spread looks tough with Philadelphia looking the better team, but laying the full three points on the road is a tough ask in a Divisional Game. The short week has made it a little easier for the 'better' team to win these games, but the number looks like one that this game could easily land on and so my attention turns to the total points line.
That immediately looks short to me, although rain is forecasted in the New Jersey area which may make it tougher for the teams to throw the ball as they would like. However I do think the two Offenses are going to be able to move the chains and make some big plays which can make it easier for the total points to be surpassed, while four of the last five between these Divisional rivals have finished with at least 51 points scored.
The last five games hosted by the Giants have seen plenty of points scored and I do think the Offenses can thrive a little more on the short week compared with the Defensive units who have work to do. The over is 6-0 in games between these teams hosted by the New York Giants and I will look for Thursday Night Football to be a high-scoring game with the most likely winner being the road team.
MY PICKS: New York Giants-Philadelphia Eagles Over 43.5 Games @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 10 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Week 5: 1-6, - 10.10 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 4: 5-3-1, + 3.18 Units (18 Units Staked, + 17.67% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 1.42 Units (17 Units Staked, - 8.35% Yield)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)
Season 2018: 23-17-1, + 8.46 Units
Even if I had been the Week 5 I have just suffered through will be a reminder that things can change quickly in the NFL and I am pretty disappointed with my selections to be perfectly frank.
I would love to say I was simply unfortunate, but that would make it difficult to grow from the Picks I made and make sure I am not allowing a loose criteria to be hit.
With that in mind I am expecting much better as we move into Week 6 when the first of the three consecutive London Games are played. This was supposed to be the week when Tottenham Hotspur hosted their first NFL game, but a delay in the Stadium opening means the Oakland-Seattle game has shifted back to Wembley Stadium.
At least the teams' plans won't have been affected too much with the location very similar and so hotels and events booked can still take place as expected. Both teams are coming over from the West coast and it will be interesting to hear what players and Coaches think about the drastic shift in time zone especially with the belief the NFL are still pushing for a franchise to land in London within the next five years.
I have been pretty opposed to that idea for some time, but the NFL continues to try and expand its boundaries in an era when so many feel the sport is one that may not be around for the long-term with all the new rules and a better scientific idea as to what players are going through to entertain the fans.
Week 6 begins with a NFC East Divisional Game on Thursday Night Football and the selection for the Sunday/Monday games will be coming out later this week. The NFL Week 6 post will be the 'Featured Post' this week and I will put out a link on Twitter once the full selections for the week have been made.
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants Pick: In recent years the NFC East was considered one of the stronger Divisions in the NFL, but that has not been the case in the opening five weeks of the 2018 NFL season. The Washington Redskins loss to the New Orleans Saints on Monday Night Football means none of the teams in the NFC East have a winning record going into Week 6 and two of those teams scratching to get back up to 0.500 will be playing on Thursday Night Football.
It has been a much more difficult season for the New York Giants to this point with the questions surrounding Eli Manning's suitability at Quarter Back being raised by the Gotham media on a weekly basis. Odell Beckham Jr's comments ahead of the Carolina game in Week 5 hasn't helped Manning's position and it does feel like this is going to be a lost season for the Giants who were undone in Carolina by a 60 plus yard Field Goal as time ran out.
The defending Champions Philadelphia Eagles have been erratic since winning the Super Bowl and a home loss to the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday means they are 2-3, but only 0.5 games out of the Division lead. There still looks to be enough talent to think the Eagles are going to be the team to come out of the NFC East, but they have to play with a little more care as mistakes continue to put them in a difficult position within games.
Jay Ajayi was traded from the Miami Dolphins twelve months ago, but the Running Back has long had issues with his knees and unfortunately suffered an ACL injury in Week 5 which will rule him out for the season. That is a blow for the Philadelphia Eagles who could potentially go back into the trade market before the deadline at the end of the month, but I do think the Eagles will be able to still make plays on the ground in this game on Thursday Night Football.
With some of the misdirection Philadelphia run on the ground, they should be able to take advantage of a New York Defensive Line who have struggled to stop the run all season. There has been some improvement from the Giants in recent games, but they are still giving up well over 4 yards per carry and I do think Philadelphia will look to establish the ground attack to open things up for Carson Wentz at Quarter Back.
Wentz has played ok, but he was going to have some inconsistent moments off the back of an injury that meant he missed the end of the 2017 season and the start of the 2018 one. He has made some very good plays, but Wentz would love to have some more protection from the Offensive Line which has played erratically, although his numbers through the air are still very good.
In this one Wentz may have a little more time with the Giants struggling for a consistent pass rush, while the Secondary have been torched in the last three games and almost giving up 300 passing yards per game.
I do think the Eagles will move the chains with some consistency throughout this Divisional Game, but the Defensive unit need to pick up their play too. The strength of the Defense is on the Defensive Line where the Eagles will figure they can put the clamps down on Saquon Barkley while also getting some significant pressure on Eli Manning who is playing behind an Offensive Line that needs a lot of fixing.
However I do think the Receivers the Giants will be running out on the field could get loose and it is up to Manning to find them having put up some decent numbers against the Carolina Panthers last week. The Eagles have been susceptible to some big passing plays and I do think the Giants can expose those holes even if Manning is not up the level he was when the team won two Super Bowls.
Picking a winner on the spread looks tough with Philadelphia looking the better team, but laying the full three points on the road is a tough ask in a Divisional Game. The short week has made it a little easier for the 'better' team to win these games, but the number looks like one that this game could easily land on and so my attention turns to the total points line.
That immediately looks short to me, although rain is forecasted in the New Jersey area which may make it tougher for the teams to throw the ball as they would like. However I do think the two Offenses are going to be able to move the chains and make some big plays which can make it easier for the total points to be surpassed, while four of the last five between these Divisional rivals have finished with at least 51 points scored.
The last five games hosted by the Giants have seen plenty of points scored and I do think the Offenses can thrive a little more on the short week compared with the Defensive units who have work to do. The over is 6-0 in games between these teams hosted by the New York Giants and I will look for Thursday Night Football to be a high-scoring game with the most likely winner being the road team.
MY PICKS: New York Giants-Philadelphia Eagles Over 43.5 Games @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 10.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Buffalo Bills + 10 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
Carolina Panthers - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Pittsburgh Steelers + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons - 3 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Week 5: 1-6, - 10.10 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 4: 5-3-1, + 3.18 Units (18 Units Staked, + 17.67% Yield)
Week 3: 5-5, - 1.42 Units (17 Units Staked, - 8.35% Yield)
Week 2: 6-1, + 9.46 Units (14 Units Staked, + 67.57% Yield)
Week 1: 6-2, + 7.34 Units (16 Units Staked, + 45.88% Yield)
Season 2018: 23-17-1, + 8.46 Units
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 11th)
Wednesday looked to be a pivotal day for the Tennis Picks this week and a strong return of 8-4 means the numbers are in a good place going into the Thursday Third Round matches at the Shanghai Masters.
The WTA tournaments being played this week will set up their own Quarter Final matches for Friday with another busy day across the three tournaments that are running.
I didn't think Thursday would be as busy a day for the Tennis Picks as Wednesday proved to be, but there are a number of matches that have hit my criteria marks and there is only one fewer Pick being made on this day compared with Wednesday.
Hopefully I can have a similarly successful day as yesterday and keep the positive trend going.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This is going to be the third match between Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur in 2018 and the two young players are both having strong seasons on the Tour. The previous two matches have both been won by Zverev, but the first was a very close match in the Davis Cup that needed all five sets to determine a winner, although the second was won in dominant style by the German in the Washington Final a couple of months ago.
Both players are considered part of the 'Next Gen' of ATP players on the Tour and both will be pleased by their 2018 campaign although I do think Zverev is someway further along in his career than De Minaur.
I have a lot of respect for De Minaur as the Australian has channelled the kind of attitude that his compatriot Lleyton Hewitt used to display on the court. While he doesn't have any really big weapon on the court, De Minaur uses hard work and a solid belief in his own game to win matches and he never knows when he is beaten which makes him dangerous.
Ultimately though he has a gap to bridge to Zverev even if the latter has not been playing as well as he would have liked over the last month. The win over Nikoloz Basilashvili will have given Zverev a lot of confidence though as he broke down the in-form Georgian and I think the bigger serve he possesses compared with De Minaur will put the German in a position to win this one and cover this number.
De Minaur is holding serve at just under 80% of the time on the hard courts and he is going to be faced with a solid returner in this one which should mean he is put under pressure in games where he doesn't find enough first serves going in. The battling nature of the Australian means he won't give up without a fight, but I think Zverev's serve is going to be the key with a few more cheap points meaning he can get through service games with slightly less concern than De Minaur.
It has been a good week for De Minaur with two wins in the books without dropping a set, but this is another step up in class and I will back Zverev to edge him out in both sets of a straight sets win.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: When Novak Djokovic was beaten by Marco Cecchinato at the French Open the former World Number 1 made suggestions that he was going to miss the grass court season. He looked to be seriously struggling with his confidence at the time, but Novak Djokovic has since won the two Grand Slam tournaments played at Wimbledon and the US Open and he is the favourite to regain his place at the top of the ATP Tour.
Revenge will be the storyline for the television companies in Shanghai on Thursday, but I don't think Djokovic will be thinking that way and instead is focused on another strong showing at a Masters event.
Marco Cecchinato should have some real belief from his win over Djokovic at the French Open but he is so much better on the clay courts compared with the hard courts which seems to make this more of a mismatch. The Italian had only won two matches on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour before this week, but he has already invested a lot into the tournament and I do wonder how much is left in the tank.
He has won two long matches this week against Gilles Simon and Hyeon Chung and both times Cecchinato has needed a final set tie-breaker which will have taken something away physically and emotionally from him.
The conditions could help the Italian who has a decent first serve, but Novak Djokovic is getting closer and closer to hitting the kind of heights that saw him dominate men's tennis for a couple of years. Djokovic is feeling about as good about his game as he has for a long time and the confidence is back which means I am expecting the Serb to put Cecchinato under pressure with the return of serve.
Cecchinato has simply not been a very good hard court player and some way below the standards that are set by Djokovic. If he serves well Cecchinato could be potentially dangerous, but I think Djokovic makes the running in this match and I will back him to cover a big looking number on paper.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: This is a good looking match in the Third Round of the Shanghai Masters and there is almost a contrast in styles that will be matching up against one another. The Juan Martin Del Potro game plan is to simply play an aggressive brand of tennis behind a monster serve and it is one that should be very effective on the courts in Shanghai.
For Borna Coric the movement and ability to get plenty of balls back in play is going to be key but the young Croatian is making some big strides with his numbers on the hard courts. The return of serve is where Coric has really improved in 2018 on this surface compared to the numbers produced in 2017 and it will be interesting to see if he can get into the Del Potro service games.
Unlike Del Potro, Coric will have had a day to rest which means he is a potential danger to the higher Seeded player. However there is a mental obstacle for Coric to overcome having been crushed by Del Potro at the US Open a couple of months ago and the form of the big man has not really dropped off throughout 2018.
His win over Richard Gasquet in the Second Round was a good one and the strong performances in 2018 has really moved Del Potro into a position where he will feel a Grand Slam title to add to his US Open crown is potentially not too far away. Del Potro finished as Runner Up at the US Open this past few weeks and I think he will be tough to beat in Shanghai with the faster courts likely to suit his game a little more than it does for Coric.
As much as Coric has improved in 2018, I do think he has been having a tough few weeks on the hard courts prior to this week. He was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Stan Wawrinka in the First Round here and losses to Cameron Norrie and Feliciano Lopez since the hard courts is not ideal preparation to make Coric believe he can beat someone like Del Potro who reached the Final in Beijing last week.
This is an intriguing number and one that almost feels like a trap, but I do think Del Potro is the stronger player on this surface and I will back him to win and cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Timea Babos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Update: 10-4, + 10.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 36.57% Yield)
The WTA tournaments being played this week will set up their own Quarter Final matches for Friday with another busy day across the three tournaments that are running.
I didn't think Thursday would be as busy a day for the Tennis Picks as Wednesday proved to be, but there are a number of matches that have hit my criteria marks and there is only one fewer Pick being made on this day compared with Wednesday.
Hopefully I can have a similarly successful day as yesterday and keep the positive trend going.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Alex De Minaur: This is going to be the third match between Alexander Zverev and Alex De Minaur in 2018 and the two young players are both having strong seasons on the Tour. The previous two matches have both been won by Zverev, but the first was a very close match in the Davis Cup that needed all five sets to determine a winner, although the second was won in dominant style by the German in the Washington Final a couple of months ago.
Both players are considered part of the 'Next Gen' of ATP players on the Tour and both will be pleased by their 2018 campaign although I do think Zverev is someway further along in his career than De Minaur.
I have a lot of respect for De Minaur as the Australian has channelled the kind of attitude that his compatriot Lleyton Hewitt used to display on the court. While he doesn't have any really big weapon on the court, De Minaur uses hard work and a solid belief in his own game to win matches and he never knows when he is beaten which makes him dangerous.
Ultimately though he has a gap to bridge to Zverev even if the latter has not been playing as well as he would have liked over the last month. The win over Nikoloz Basilashvili will have given Zverev a lot of confidence though as he broke down the in-form Georgian and I think the bigger serve he possesses compared with De Minaur will put the German in a position to win this one and cover this number.
De Minaur is holding serve at just under 80% of the time on the hard courts and he is going to be faced with a solid returner in this one which should mean he is put under pressure in games where he doesn't find enough first serves going in. The battling nature of the Australian means he won't give up without a fight, but I think Zverev's serve is going to be the key with a few more cheap points meaning he can get through service games with slightly less concern than De Minaur.
It has been a good week for De Minaur with two wins in the books without dropping a set, but this is another step up in class and I will back Zverev to edge him out in both sets of a straight sets win.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Marco Cecchinato: When Novak Djokovic was beaten by Marco Cecchinato at the French Open the former World Number 1 made suggestions that he was going to miss the grass court season. He looked to be seriously struggling with his confidence at the time, but Novak Djokovic has since won the two Grand Slam tournaments played at Wimbledon and the US Open and he is the favourite to regain his place at the top of the ATP Tour.
Revenge will be the storyline for the television companies in Shanghai on Thursday, but I don't think Djokovic will be thinking that way and instead is focused on another strong showing at a Masters event.
Marco Cecchinato should have some real belief from his win over Djokovic at the French Open but he is so much better on the clay courts compared with the hard courts which seems to make this more of a mismatch. The Italian had only won two matches on the hard courts on the main ATP Tour before this week, but he has already invested a lot into the tournament and I do wonder how much is left in the tank.
He has won two long matches this week against Gilles Simon and Hyeon Chung and both times Cecchinato has needed a final set tie-breaker which will have taken something away physically and emotionally from him.
The conditions could help the Italian who has a decent first serve, but Novak Djokovic is getting closer and closer to hitting the kind of heights that saw him dominate men's tennis for a couple of years. Djokovic is feeling about as good about his game as he has for a long time and the confidence is back which means I am expecting the Serb to put Cecchinato under pressure with the return of serve.
Cecchinato has simply not been a very good hard court player and some way below the standards that are set by Djokovic. If he serves well Cecchinato could be potentially dangerous, but I think Djokovic makes the running in this match and I will back him to cover a big looking number on paper.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 games v Borna Coric: This is a good looking match in the Third Round of the Shanghai Masters and there is almost a contrast in styles that will be matching up against one another. The Juan Martin Del Potro game plan is to simply play an aggressive brand of tennis behind a monster serve and it is one that should be very effective on the courts in Shanghai.
For Borna Coric the movement and ability to get plenty of balls back in play is going to be key but the young Croatian is making some big strides with his numbers on the hard courts. The return of serve is where Coric has really improved in 2018 on this surface compared to the numbers produced in 2017 and it will be interesting to see if he can get into the Del Potro service games.
Unlike Del Potro, Coric will have had a day to rest which means he is a potential danger to the higher Seeded player. However there is a mental obstacle for Coric to overcome having been crushed by Del Potro at the US Open a couple of months ago and the form of the big man has not really dropped off throughout 2018.
His win over Richard Gasquet in the Second Round was a good one and the strong performances in 2018 has really moved Del Potro into a position where he will feel a Grand Slam title to add to his US Open crown is potentially not too far away. Del Potro finished as Runner Up at the US Open this past few weeks and I think he will be tough to beat in Shanghai with the faster courts likely to suit his game a little more than it does for Coric.
As much as Coric has improved in 2018, I do think he has been having a tough few weeks on the hard courts prior to this week. He was perhaps a little fortunate to get the better of Stan Wawrinka in the First Round here and losses to Cameron Norrie and Feliciano Lopez since the hard courts is not ideal preparation to make Coric believe he can beat someone like Del Potro who reached the Final in Beijing last week.
This is an intriguing number and one that almost feels like a trap, but I do think Del Potro is the stronger player on this surface and I will back him to win and cover the spread.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 10.5 Games First Set @ 2.25 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Ekaterina Alexandrova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kiki Bertens - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Andrea Petkovic - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Timea Babos - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Update: 10-4, + 10.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 36.57% Yield)
Wednesday, 10 October 2018
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 10th)
There have already been a number of surprise results at the Shanghai Masters and you could add Nicolas Jarry's win over Marin Cilic to that list in the first few days at this tournament.
The defeat for Cilic could be a critical one with a number of players lining up behind the out of form Croatian in the Race to London and Cilic's place in the top eight could be under serious threat by the end of this week.
One player who avoided any upset was Novak Djokovic who comfortably made it through to the Third Round as he continues his bid to finish the 2018 season with the World Number 1 position.
On Wednesday the rest of the Second Round is going to be completed which means the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer are in action. There is a lot of Tennis to get through and it looks to be a busy day for my Tennis Picks too which both came through as winners on Tuesday with the third pick not counting as Monica Puig pulled out with an injury.
The ATP World Tour Finals are still a few weeks away compared with the WTA Finals which are played later this month. That means every tournament is now very valuable to those players chasing down a spot in Singapore and more of those players will be in action in Second Round matches across the various tournaments being played on the WTA Tour.
Both the Race to London and Race to Singapore have some miles to be run in the final few weeks of the 2018 season and the picture may get a little clearer by the end of the events this week.
On Wednesday I do think the favourites are going to have the chance to put a number of relatively strong wins on the board so it is no surprise I have picked a number of them that have fallen into my criteria.
I am looking to build on Tuesday and make sure the 2018 season ends with a flourish to secure a winning margin for the season.
Wednesday will likely be a key day to this week with the number of Picks I am taking on after a slow first couple of days at the tournaments.
I will analyse four of the Tennis Picks and add the remainder to the 'MY PICKS' section at the end of the thread.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: It says something for Alexander Zverev that he looks likely to miss playing in Milan in the Next Gen ATP Finals for a second season in a row because he has earned enough points to make the main ATP World Tour Finals. Once again it should underline how young Zverev is when what looks a sure fire Grand Slam Champion in the making is criticised for not having made a big impact in enough Slams despite his World Ranking.
The German will be the first to admit he would have expected to have done better at the Grand Slam level, but he is still learning and Zverev is only going to get better. He still has some work to do to make sure he is playing in London in the ATP World Tour Finals, but it would take some run of losses and his rivals playing some immense tennis to prevent that happening.
With Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem already out of the Shanghai Masters this week feels a good chance for Zverev to confirm his place in London alongside Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. A couple of wins in Shanghai should be enough although there is no guarantee he will get those with a tough Second Round match to negotiate.
Nikoloz Basilashvili had not shown a lot of appetite for playing on the hard courts before reaching the Fourth Round in the US Open. That has clearly sparked something as Basilashvili has enjoyed the Asian hard court swing so far having won the title in Beijing on Sunday and then moving to Shanghai and dismissing Denis Shapovalov very, very comfortably.
Confidence can be huge for any tennis player and Basilashvili is playing with plenty of that. However you can't dismiss the fact the numbers have been fairly average over the last two months even if they are significantly stronger than what the Georgian has tended to produce on the hard courts.
He is serving better in the last two months than he has for most of the season on the hard courts, but he will be tested by Zverev who is a strong returner and perhaps been a little unfortunate to have had a couple of early losses over the last few weeks. The younger player has the bigger serve in the match and still continues to hold at a higher rate than Basilashvili while you can't ignore the amount of tennis the Beijing Champion has played over the last ten days.
The win over Juan Martin Del Potro to take home the Beijing title is a huge one for Basilashvili and deserves a lot of respect. It should also focus Zverev who has suffered some really poor losses on the hard courts since winning the Washington title in August. He will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Malek Jaziri last week in Beijing, but Zverev should have more in the tank than Basilashvili and perhaps just cool down the hot shooting of the Georgian in this Second Round match and lead to a win and a cover.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: It has been five years since Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin Del Potro have played one another so perhaps there has been time for Gasquet to ignore the fact he has lost the last six matches against the 'Tower of Tandil'. The head to head is another poor one Gasquet has against the very best players on the Tour, but he should be ready for this match having already won in the First Round against Leonardo Mayer to get a feel for the conditions.
He is also going to be facing a Del Potro who played, and lost, the Beijing Final just a few days ago and had to make the surprisingly long journey down to Shanghai for this tournament.
Last year Del Potro did enjoy what have been quicker conditions in Shanghai and he reached the Semi Final in this event. You can see Del Potro is much happier with his all around game these days with the wrist injury that has affected his backhand arguably stronger than it has been since before the issue first came up in 2010.
Del Potro is a US Open Finalist, but he might be disappointed he didn't add to his titles in 2018 in Final losses in Los Cabos and Beijing when he was a strong favourite in both. He will want to continue the positive momentum built up by winning here and his numbers on the hard courts are the strongest Del Potro has produced in his career.
The serve is a potent weapon for the Argentinian but the Del Potro return has been underrated and I think that gives Gasquet considerable problems to deal with. The Frenchman has the quality to look after his serve, but the return numbers have been much weaker this season compared to last and dropped off significantly from 2016.
That should mean Gasquet is under immense pressure to stay in the match throughout this contest and only fatigue can keep Del Potro from winning the match. I am not anticipating big issues for the big man and I think he will be a little too aggressive on the return which can force the mistakes from Gasquet and allow Del Potro to win and cover in this one.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Yibing Wu: Winning in Tokyo would have been the perfect homecoming for Kei Nishokori but he came up just short after going down to Daniil Medvedev in the Final on Sunday. The points earned has got Nishikori a little closer to the top eight in the Race to London, but he needs another strong showing in Shanghai to take advantage of the early exits Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem have suffered.
The first match for him in Shanghai comes against a home player who is considered a key part of the future for Chinese tennis. Yibing Wu is still 19 years old and he beat a fellow Chinese player to make it through to this big stage against one of the best ATP players in the world.
It is a big gap for Wu to bridge with the majority of his time spent on the Challenger circuit as he looks to build his confidence. That has yet to happen for a player Ranked outside the top 400, but the First Round win here will help Wu improve his World Ranking and perhaps start making the move he would be hoping for.
Wu is going to need to play one of his best matches of his career and he has to hope Nishikori is fatigued from the effort he put together in Tokyo before flying over to Shanghai. The numbers produced by the young Chinese player have been decent enough for the Challenger circuit but this is a big step up and he has taken comfortable losses to Felix Auger Aliassime and Malek Jaziri over the last couple of weeks as he looks to take advantage of the home tournaments being played on the main Tour.
Nishikori's numbers have begun to improve on the hard courts after a few months off with an injury and he looked to be in fine form in Tokyo. There are still matches where Nishikori suddenly produces a really sub-par effort which makes it tough to really trust him when it comes to the bigger numbers on the handicaps, but the numbers on both the serve and return should give him a big edge over Wu in this one.
Sometimes the unfamiliarity of an opponent can take a top player off his game and that may be something that works for Wu who will have the home fans behind him. However I do think Nishikori stays mentally balanced and that should be enough to secure around four breaks of serve which should be enough to cover this number.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: For now Roger Federer is still Ranked above Novak Djokovic which means he is the Number 1 Seed in Shanghai as the Swiss superstar returns to the court for the first time since the US Open. Some will consider the Laver Cup as competitive action, but I still think that competition is developing beyond a glorified exhibition event and this will be a different atmosphere for Federer.
He goes straight into a tough situation against Daniil Medvedev who has been in fine form for a couple of months on the hard courts and made a significant move up the World Rankings.
The young Russian has moved to the brink of cracking the top 20 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Tokyo and he battled through a tough match in the First Round here in Shanghai. Medvedev's numbers have taken a huge jump on the hard courts in the 2018 season and the title won in Tokyo is the second he has earned in two months after also winning in Winston Salem.
There is a real belief in the way Medvedev is playing at the moment and it is the slight improvement on the return over the last couple of months which has made all the difference for him. However I do have to wonder how much has been taken out of Medvedev by all the tennis and travel he has had to do over the last two weeks after Qualifying for Tokyo before winning the title as well as the tough First Round match he had here against an opponent I would usually expect Medvedev to beat fairly routinely.
Roger Federer has had a few weeks to get himself mentally ready for the end of the 2018 season as we almost enter a period of the season in which he usually thrives. It was surprising to hear Federer suggest he had almost mentally checked out of his upset loss to John Millman at the US Open, but you can't dismiss the very impressive numbers Federer continues to boast on the hard courts which makes him amongst the favourites to win any tournament held on this surface.
He has perhaps not returned quite as well as he would have liked in 2018- the actual percentage of return points have stayed steady, but Federer has not been as clinical on the break points and that has seen a real drop in the percentage of breaks of serve he has been able to produce. The serve continues to put immense pressure on his opponents though and I think that is going to be key to cracking what has to be a tired opponent both physically and mentally.
It may take a bit of time for Federer to just get his feet comfortable back on a tennis court, but once he does that I do think he can find a late break in each of the first two sets to win and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Keven Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters Update: 2-0, + 3.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91.50% Yield)
The defeat for Cilic could be a critical one with a number of players lining up behind the out of form Croatian in the Race to London and Cilic's place in the top eight could be under serious threat by the end of this week.
One player who avoided any upset was Novak Djokovic who comfortably made it through to the Third Round as he continues his bid to finish the 2018 season with the World Number 1 position.
On Wednesday the rest of the Second Round is going to be completed which means the likes of Juan Martin Del Potro and Roger Federer are in action. There is a lot of Tennis to get through and it looks to be a busy day for my Tennis Picks too which both came through as winners on Tuesday with the third pick not counting as Monica Puig pulled out with an injury.
The ATP World Tour Finals are still a few weeks away compared with the WTA Finals which are played later this month. That means every tournament is now very valuable to those players chasing down a spot in Singapore and more of those players will be in action in Second Round matches across the various tournaments being played on the WTA Tour.
Both the Race to London and Race to Singapore have some miles to be run in the final few weeks of the 2018 season and the picture may get a little clearer by the end of the events this week.
On Wednesday I do think the favourites are going to have the chance to put a number of relatively strong wins on the board so it is no surprise I have picked a number of them that have fallen into my criteria.
I am looking to build on Tuesday and make sure the 2018 season ends with a flourish to secure a winning margin for the season.
Wednesday will likely be a key day to this week with the number of Picks I am taking on after a slow first couple of days at the tournaments.
I will analyse four of the Tennis Picks and add the remainder to the 'MY PICKS' section at the end of the thread.
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Nikoloz Basilashvili: It says something for Alexander Zverev that he looks likely to miss playing in Milan in the Next Gen ATP Finals for a second season in a row because he has earned enough points to make the main ATP World Tour Finals. Once again it should underline how young Zverev is when what looks a sure fire Grand Slam Champion in the making is criticised for not having made a big impact in enough Slams despite his World Ranking.
The German will be the first to admit he would have expected to have done better at the Grand Slam level, but he is still learning and Zverev is only going to get better. He still has some work to do to make sure he is playing in London in the ATP World Tour Finals, but it would take some run of losses and his rivals playing some immense tennis to prevent that happening.
With Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem already out of the Shanghai Masters this week feels a good chance for Zverev to confirm his place in London alongside Roger Federer, Novak Djokovic, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. A couple of wins in Shanghai should be enough although there is no guarantee he will get those with a tough Second Round match to negotiate.
Nikoloz Basilashvili had not shown a lot of appetite for playing on the hard courts before reaching the Fourth Round in the US Open. That has clearly sparked something as Basilashvili has enjoyed the Asian hard court swing so far having won the title in Beijing on Sunday and then moving to Shanghai and dismissing Denis Shapovalov very, very comfortably.
Confidence can be huge for any tennis player and Basilashvili is playing with plenty of that. However you can't dismiss the fact the numbers have been fairly average over the last two months even if they are significantly stronger than what the Georgian has tended to produce on the hard courts.
He is serving better in the last two months than he has for most of the season on the hard courts, but he will be tested by Zverev who is a strong returner and perhaps been a little unfortunate to have had a couple of early losses over the last few weeks. The younger player has the bigger serve in the match and still continues to hold at a higher rate than Basilashvili while you can't ignore the amount of tennis the Beijing Champion has played over the last ten days.
The win over Juan Martin Del Potro to take home the Beijing title is a huge one for Basilashvili and deserves a lot of respect. It should also focus Zverev who has suffered some really poor losses on the hard courts since winning the Washington title in August. He will need to serve better than he did in the loss to Malek Jaziri last week in Beijing, but Zverev should have more in the tank than Basilashvili and perhaps just cool down the hot shooting of the Georgian in this Second Round match and lead to a win and a cover.
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 games v Richard Gasquet: It has been five years since Richard Gasquet and Juan Martin Del Potro have played one another so perhaps there has been time for Gasquet to ignore the fact he has lost the last six matches against the 'Tower of Tandil'. The head to head is another poor one Gasquet has against the very best players on the Tour, but he should be ready for this match having already won in the First Round against Leonardo Mayer to get a feel for the conditions.
He is also going to be facing a Del Potro who played, and lost, the Beijing Final just a few days ago and had to make the surprisingly long journey down to Shanghai for this tournament.
Last year Del Potro did enjoy what have been quicker conditions in Shanghai and he reached the Semi Final in this event. You can see Del Potro is much happier with his all around game these days with the wrist injury that has affected his backhand arguably stronger than it has been since before the issue first came up in 2010.
Del Potro is a US Open Finalist, but he might be disappointed he didn't add to his titles in 2018 in Final losses in Los Cabos and Beijing when he was a strong favourite in both. He will want to continue the positive momentum built up by winning here and his numbers on the hard courts are the strongest Del Potro has produced in his career.
The serve is a potent weapon for the Argentinian but the Del Potro return has been underrated and I think that gives Gasquet considerable problems to deal with. The Frenchman has the quality to look after his serve, but the return numbers have been much weaker this season compared to last and dropped off significantly from 2016.
That should mean Gasquet is under immense pressure to stay in the match throughout this contest and only fatigue can keep Del Potro from winning the match. I am not anticipating big issues for the big man and I think he will be a little too aggressive on the return which can force the mistakes from Gasquet and allow Del Potro to win and cover in this one.
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 games v Yibing Wu: Winning in Tokyo would have been the perfect homecoming for Kei Nishokori but he came up just short after going down to Daniil Medvedev in the Final on Sunday. The points earned has got Nishikori a little closer to the top eight in the Race to London, but he needs another strong showing in Shanghai to take advantage of the early exits Marin Cilic and Dominic Thiem have suffered.
The first match for him in Shanghai comes against a home player who is considered a key part of the future for Chinese tennis. Yibing Wu is still 19 years old and he beat a fellow Chinese player to make it through to this big stage against one of the best ATP players in the world.
It is a big gap for Wu to bridge with the majority of his time spent on the Challenger circuit as he looks to build his confidence. That has yet to happen for a player Ranked outside the top 400, but the First Round win here will help Wu improve his World Ranking and perhaps start making the move he would be hoping for.
Wu is going to need to play one of his best matches of his career and he has to hope Nishikori is fatigued from the effort he put together in Tokyo before flying over to Shanghai. The numbers produced by the young Chinese player have been decent enough for the Challenger circuit but this is a big step up and he has taken comfortable losses to Felix Auger Aliassime and Malek Jaziri over the last couple of weeks as he looks to take advantage of the home tournaments being played on the main Tour.
Nishikori's numbers have begun to improve on the hard courts after a few months off with an injury and he looked to be in fine form in Tokyo. There are still matches where Nishikori suddenly produces a really sub-par effort which makes it tough to really trust him when it comes to the bigger numbers on the handicaps, but the numbers on both the serve and return should give him a big edge over Wu in this one.
Sometimes the unfamiliarity of an opponent can take a top player off his game and that may be something that works for Wu who will have the home fans behind him. However I do think Nishikori stays mentally balanced and that should be enough to secure around four breaks of serve which should be enough to cover this number.
Roger Federer - 3.5 games v Daniil Medvedev: For now Roger Federer is still Ranked above Novak Djokovic which means he is the Number 1 Seed in Shanghai as the Swiss superstar returns to the court for the first time since the US Open. Some will consider the Laver Cup as competitive action, but I still think that competition is developing beyond a glorified exhibition event and this will be a different atmosphere for Federer.
He goes straight into a tough situation against Daniil Medvedev who has been in fine form for a couple of months on the hard courts and made a significant move up the World Rankings.
The young Russian has moved to the brink of cracking the top 20 in the World Rankings after winning the title in Tokyo and he battled through a tough match in the First Round here in Shanghai. Medvedev's numbers have taken a huge jump on the hard courts in the 2018 season and the title won in Tokyo is the second he has earned in two months after also winning in Winston Salem.
There is a real belief in the way Medvedev is playing at the moment and it is the slight improvement on the return over the last couple of months which has made all the difference for him. However I do have to wonder how much has been taken out of Medvedev by all the tennis and travel he has had to do over the last two weeks after Qualifying for Tokyo before winning the title as well as the tough First Round match he had here against an opponent I would usually expect Medvedev to beat fairly routinely.
Roger Federer has had a few weeks to get himself mentally ready for the end of the 2018 season as we almost enter a period of the season in which he usually thrives. It was surprising to hear Federer suggest he had almost mentally checked out of his upset loss to John Millman at the US Open, but you can't dismiss the very impressive numbers Federer continues to boast on the hard courts which makes him amongst the favourites to win any tournament held on this surface.
He has perhaps not returned quite as well as he would have liked in 2018- the actual percentage of return points have stayed steady, but Federer has not been as clinical on the break points and that has seen a real drop in the percentage of breaks of serve he has been able to produce. The serve continues to put immense pressure on his opponents though and I think that is going to be key to cracking what has to be a tired opponent both physically and mentally.
It may take a bit of time for Federer to just get his feet comfortable back on a tennis court, but once he does that I do think he can find a late break in each of the first two sets to win and cover this number.
MY PICKS: Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Juan Martin Del Potro - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roger Federer - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Kyle Edmund - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Karen Khachanov - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Keven Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Roberto Bautista Agut - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Katerina Siniakova - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Anna Karolina Schmiedlova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Shanghai Masters Update: 2-0, + 3.66 Units (4 Units Staked, + 91.50% Yield)
Tuesday, 9 October 2018
Shanghai Masters Tennis Picks 2018 (October 9th)
Spots in the World Tour Finals in both the ATP and WTA Tournaments are being confirmed as we get down to the final few weeks of the 2018 Tennis season.
The WTA Finals are actually played this month and we are down to three unconfirmed places in the tournament in Singapore which will be decided in the next three weeks. A couple of those players will be looking to cement their place in Singapore with a strong showing the events to be played during this week, but the next two weeks is when the real points can be won which is when all of those players will be in action.
Extra places could open up in the WTA Finals if the likes of Simona Halep are not able to recover from injuries and instead decide to sit out and make sure they are healthy for the start of the 2019 season. Those extra places could make things much more interesting for those on the cusp of reaching the WTA Finals and should make it an interesting final lap in the Race to Singapore.
The biggest tournament being played this week is the Shanghai Masters which is the penultimate Masters event on the ATP Tour. The likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are in action this week and it is a tournament with plenty of points available which is of interest to those players looking to reach the ATP World Tour Finals in London.
It is a tough tournament with some speedy conditions in Shanghai, but I am looking to build on last week which was much better than the previous two weeks.
Tuesday looks to be a difficult day to make Tennis Picks with the completion of the First Round and the start of the Second Round here.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There hasn't been a lot of competitive tennis played by Pablo Carreno Busta since his retirement at the US Open, but the one match played in that time saw him beaten by Benoit Paire in straight sets in the Davis Cup.
You have to have some questions about the fitness of the Spaniard going into this First Round match in Shanghai and he has to face the same opponent who beat him the last time he took to the court. There is much to like about how Carreno Busta has been able to play on the hard courts over the last thirteen months, but I do wonder if he has the tank to outlast Paire in this First Round match.
It is never easy to trust Paire who has the habit of making some stunningly poor shot selections during matches. However Paire has put together some solid performances since going out of the US Open at the hands of Roger Federer and he has produced some good numbers which suggest Paire will be feeling good about his chances to beat Carreno Busta for the second time in the last month.
Paire has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Shanghai- the win over Joao Sousa in the Second Qualifying Round was particularly impressive although I would like to see the Frenchman get more out of his game on the hard courts.
The Carreno Busta numbers have been stronger than Paire's on the hard courts in 2018, but I am going to oppose the Spaniard with some doubts about his fitness going into the final month of the 2018 season. He was beaten pretty handily by Paire in the Davis Cup match last month and Paire's consecutive wins in the Qualifiers should stand him in good stead to win this match as long as the Frenchman can keep his head in the match.
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: The conditions in Shanghai seem to be faster than the majority of the hard court events we will see in the year and that could be a saving grace for Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian has been through some tough moments since his breakthrough year on the Tour and the majority of his successes in the 2018 season have come on the Challenger circuit.
Wins in two Qualifiers will have given Pospisil some confidence to take into the main draw, but his numbers on the hard courts have been very poor when playing in main ATP Tour matches. You can't ignore the obvious power behind the serve that Pospisil has, but his return game has not been at a level he would like and the numbers are someway down on both serve and return in main ATP Tour matches compared with his overall numbers in 2018.
Pospisil has been good enough to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he is playing an opponent who got the better of him with some ease when they met on the hard courts in Washington a couple of months ago.
Alex De Minaur won that match in three sets, but he would have made his own life much easier if he had been more efficient when it came to the break points he created. The young Australian has been in very good form in 2018 and looks to have recovered from a blip in the middle of the season as he looks for a strong end to the season which could see De Minuar Seeded when it comes to the first Grand Slam of the season in January.
2018 has proven to be an overall improvement on the hard courts for De Minaur whose numbers have been much better on serve and return. He will be keen to prevent Pospisil from getting into this match by serving as well as he did in Washington, and doing that should mean De Minaur is in a position to win this match in fairly routine fashion.
The Australian has been playing some decent tennis in the last three weeks and I think De Minuar is able to win this match and cover the number with the superior return game compared with Pospisil likely proving to be the difference.
MY PICKS: Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Season 2018: + 23.10 Units (1597 Units Staked, + 1.45% Yield)
The WTA Finals are actually played this month and we are down to three unconfirmed places in the tournament in Singapore which will be decided in the next three weeks. A couple of those players will be looking to cement their place in Singapore with a strong showing the events to be played during this week, but the next two weeks is when the real points can be won which is when all of those players will be in action.
Extra places could open up in the WTA Finals if the likes of Simona Halep are not able to recover from injuries and instead decide to sit out and make sure they are healthy for the start of the 2019 season. Those extra places could make things much more interesting for those on the cusp of reaching the WTA Finals and should make it an interesting final lap in the Race to Singapore.
The biggest tournament being played this week is the Shanghai Masters which is the penultimate Masters event on the ATP Tour. The likes of Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic are in action this week and it is a tournament with plenty of points available which is of interest to those players looking to reach the ATP World Tour Finals in London.
It is a tough tournament with some speedy conditions in Shanghai, but I am looking to build on last week which was much better than the previous two weeks.
Tuesday looks to be a difficult day to make Tennis Picks with the completion of the First Round and the start of the Second Round here.
Benoit Paire - 2.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: There hasn't been a lot of competitive tennis played by Pablo Carreno Busta since his retirement at the US Open, but the one match played in that time saw him beaten by Benoit Paire in straight sets in the Davis Cup.
You have to have some questions about the fitness of the Spaniard going into this First Round match in Shanghai and he has to face the same opponent who beat him the last time he took to the court. There is much to like about how Carreno Busta has been able to play on the hard courts over the last thirteen months, but I do wonder if he has the tank to outlast Paire in this First Round match.
It is never easy to trust Paire who has the habit of making some stunningly poor shot selections during matches. However Paire has put together some solid performances since going out of the US Open at the hands of Roger Federer and he has produced some good numbers which suggest Paire will be feeling good about his chances to beat Carreno Busta for the second time in the last month.
Paire has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Shanghai- the win over Joao Sousa in the Second Qualifying Round was particularly impressive although I would like to see the Frenchman get more out of his game on the hard courts.
The Carreno Busta numbers have been stronger than Paire's on the hard courts in 2018, but I am going to oppose the Spaniard with some doubts about his fitness going into the final month of the 2018 season. He was beaten pretty handily by Paire in the Davis Cup match last month and Paire's consecutive wins in the Qualifiers should stand him in good stead to win this match as long as the Frenchman can keep his head in the match.
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 games v Vasek Pospisil: The conditions in Shanghai seem to be faster than the majority of the hard court events we will see in the year and that could be a saving grace for Vasek Pospisil. The Canadian has been through some tough moments since his breakthrough year on the Tour and the majority of his successes in the 2018 season have come on the Challenger circuit.
Wins in two Qualifiers will have given Pospisil some confidence to take into the main draw, but his numbers on the hard courts have been very poor when playing in main ATP Tour matches. You can't ignore the obvious power behind the serve that Pospisil has, but his return game has not been at a level he would like and the numbers are someway down on both serve and return in main ATP Tour matches compared with his overall numbers in 2018.
Pospisil has been good enough to get back inside the top 100 of the World Rankings, but he is playing an opponent who got the better of him with some ease when they met on the hard courts in Washington a couple of months ago.
Alex De Minaur won that match in three sets, but he would have made his own life much easier if he had been more efficient when it came to the break points he created. The young Australian has been in very good form in 2018 and looks to have recovered from a blip in the middle of the season as he looks for a strong end to the season which could see De Minuar Seeded when it comes to the first Grand Slam of the season in January.
2018 has proven to be an overall improvement on the hard courts for De Minaur whose numbers have been much better on serve and return. He will be keen to prevent Pospisil from getting into this match by serving as well as he did in Washington, and doing that should mean De Minaur is in a position to win this match in fairly routine fashion.
The Australian has been playing some decent tennis in the last three weeks and I think De Minuar is able to win this match and cover the number with the superior return game compared with Pospisil likely proving to be the difference.
MY PICKS: Benoit Paire - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Alex De Minaur - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Season 2018: + 23.10 Units (1597 Units Staked, + 1.45% Yield)
Sunday, 7 October 2018
NFL Week 5 Picks 2018 (October 4-8)
After a losing Week 3, the NFL Picks were back in winning form in Week 4 and keeps a positive start to the 2018 season intact going into the next round of games.
I didn't have a Pick from Thursday Night Football this week, so the selections begin from the games that are being played on Sunday.
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The big question for the New York Giants going into the Draft back in April was whether they wanted to pick a Quarter Back with their top three selection. The decision was made that they felt there was enough of a window to build around Eli Manning, but the 1-3 start made to the 2018 season has been tough to swallow.
To say it is Manning's fault that the Giants are 1-3 would be a little harsh, although it has become clear that the Quarter Back is on the slide in his career. He doesn't have the same ability to make plays down the field as he once did, but Manning has been offered almost non-existent protection from an Offensive Line which has been forced to make changes to try and do much better.
The Offensive Line problems have also made it much tougher for Saquon Barkley to run the ball with consistency, but the rookie Running Back has shown enough to suggest he could be a big weapon for the Giants. Barkley has the opportunity to have a big game for the Giants in Week 5 against a Carolina Defensive Line who have a very strong pass rush but who have not been able to fill the gaps in run blocking that they would like after giving up 4.9 yards per carry through their first three games.
I would imagine that would have been something they would have been working on in their Bye Week, and the Panthers were a tough team to run the ball against last season. The idea for Carolina will be to prevent the Giants getting into third and short situations and instead make Manning have to drop back and find the time to hit his big time Receivers down the field which would be a huge challenge for the Offensive Line to provide the time for him to do that.
Carolina should be much more comfortable with their own Offensive plans as they will utilise a power running game to open things up for Cam Newton in the passing game. So far the Panthers have been able to run the ball very well and they should be able to get the better of the New York Giants who have struggled to giving up 4.8 yards per carry on the ground.
Newton can run the ball himself, but Christian McCafferey is proving to be a huge weapon for the Panthers and he also is a threat in the short passing game with an ability to turn those into big runs.
The Panthers Offensive Line haven't always been at their best when protecting Newton in the passing game, but they should be able to exploit play-action and the short yardage situations the rushing Offense puts them in. The Giants have some holes in the Secondary which can be vulnerable to the pass and I do think it will be tough for New York to stop a Carolina team who have scored 38 points against them in 2013 and 2015.
It is tough to back the favourite when you see the trends in favour of the Giants and the underdog in this series. However the Panthers have been very strong out of their Bye Week in recent years and New York are also in action on Thursday Night Football which lessens those concerns.
I am going to back the Panthers to win this game and cover the big number. They look to match up with the Giants pretty well and I also think they are well rested and should have been able to prepare to stop the Giants struggling Offense.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: There would have been some people out there picking the Atlanta Falcons versus the Pittsburgh Steelers as being a potential Super Bowl Game in the 2018 season. However both teams have underachieved so far and both head into Week 5 with a losing record and sitting at the bottom of their respective Divisions.
Sometimes you can call non-Conference games as being a little less important and possibly a trappy situation for teams, but the losing team in Week 5 may already be considering that their season is over.
You have to believe there will be a lot of scoring in a game where both the Pittsburgh and Atlanta Defensive units have been absolutely terrible in 2018. Both units are going up against what has to be considered potent Offensive units.
The reliance on the Quarter Back has been evident through the first four weeks of the season, but Atlanta can at least call upon Devonta Freeman who looks to be back from an injury that has kept him out the last two weeks. It won't be easy to generate a strong rushing game in this one against a decent enough Pittsburgh Defensive Line, but Freeman offers another threat for Matt Ryan and the Falcons Offense in this one and the running game will have to be respected.
I do think Atlanta will have enough success on the ground to at least keep Pittsburgh honest and then the Secondary is likely to be exposed. Both Freeman and Tevin Coleman could be huge coming out of the backfield as Receivers for Ryan, while Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones can win their battles outside and give the Falcons every chance to move the chains with some real consistency.
Playing outdoors can be tough for a team like Atlanta who are used to playing indoors for much of the season, but I do think they can move the chains here against this Steelers Defensive Line.
The same can be said for the Pittsburgh Steelers although Le'Veon Bell's continuous holdout has dominated the headlines for them. Bell is supposed to be reporting back ahead of Week 7, but for now his absence is making it very tough for the Steelers even if their Offensive numbers have remained strong.
James Connor is simply not the threat that Bell is although the Running Back could have a strong game against a Falcons Defensive Line who have allowed 5 yards per carry. Finding the balance on the Offensive side of the ball is the key for the Steelers to give Ben Roethlisberger a little more support.
Statistically the numbers have been strong from the Quarter Back, but the connection with Antonio Brown has not been where it has been in the past. There are other Receiving threats for the Pittsburgh Steelers who are picking up their numbers and Pittsburgh should be able to make plenty of plays through the air.
One or two mistakes are likely to make the difference in this game between a cover or a non-cover. Both teams should be able to move the chains with some consistency and it is going to come down to which of the two Secondaries are able to make a big play or two that could determine which team wins.
Pittsburgh have not covered in any of their last seven home games and they were outplayed by the Ravens last week. This game is also the meat in the NFC North sandwich for the Pittsburgh Steelers and I will take the points in what could easily end up being a Field Goal game either way.
MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 1 Point @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
I didn't have a Pick from Thursday Night Football this week, so the selections begin from the games that are being played on Sunday.
New York Giants @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The big question for the New York Giants going into the Draft back in April was whether they wanted to pick a Quarter Back with their top three selection. The decision was made that they felt there was enough of a window to build around Eli Manning, but the 1-3 start made to the 2018 season has been tough to swallow.
To say it is Manning's fault that the Giants are 1-3 would be a little harsh, although it has become clear that the Quarter Back is on the slide in his career. He doesn't have the same ability to make plays down the field as he once did, but Manning has been offered almost non-existent protection from an Offensive Line which has been forced to make changes to try and do much better.
The Offensive Line problems have also made it much tougher for Saquon Barkley to run the ball with consistency, but the rookie Running Back has shown enough to suggest he could be a big weapon for the Giants. Barkley has the opportunity to have a big game for the Giants in Week 5 against a Carolina Defensive Line who have a very strong pass rush but who have not been able to fill the gaps in run blocking that they would like after giving up 4.9 yards per carry through their first three games.
I would imagine that would have been something they would have been working on in their Bye Week, and the Panthers were a tough team to run the ball against last season. The idea for Carolina will be to prevent the Giants getting into third and short situations and instead make Manning have to drop back and find the time to hit his big time Receivers down the field which would be a huge challenge for the Offensive Line to provide the time for him to do that.
Carolina should be much more comfortable with their own Offensive plans as they will utilise a power running game to open things up for Cam Newton in the passing game. So far the Panthers have been able to run the ball very well and they should be able to get the better of the New York Giants who have struggled to giving up 4.8 yards per carry on the ground.
Newton can run the ball himself, but Christian McCafferey is proving to be a huge weapon for the Panthers and he also is a threat in the short passing game with an ability to turn those into big runs.
The Panthers Offensive Line haven't always been at their best when protecting Newton in the passing game, but they should be able to exploit play-action and the short yardage situations the rushing Offense puts them in. The Giants have some holes in the Secondary which can be vulnerable to the pass and I do think it will be tough for New York to stop a Carolina team who have scored 38 points against them in 2013 and 2015.
It is tough to back the favourite when you see the trends in favour of the Giants and the underdog in this series. However the Panthers have been very strong out of their Bye Week in recent years and New York are also in action on Thursday Night Football which lessens those concerns.
I am going to back the Panthers to win this game and cover the big number. They look to match up with the Giants pretty well and I also think they are well rested and should have been able to prepare to stop the Giants struggling Offense.
Atlanta Falcons @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: There would have been some people out there picking the Atlanta Falcons versus the Pittsburgh Steelers as being a potential Super Bowl Game in the 2018 season. However both teams have underachieved so far and both head into Week 5 with a losing record and sitting at the bottom of their respective Divisions.
Sometimes you can call non-Conference games as being a little less important and possibly a trappy situation for teams, but the losing team in Week 5 may already be considering that their season is over.
You have to believe there will be a lot of scoring in a game where both the Pittsburgh and Atlanta Defensive units have been absolutely terrible in 2018. Both units are going up against what has to be considered potent Offensive units.
The reliance on the Quarter Back has been evident through the first four weeks of the season, but Atlanta can at least call upon Devonta Freeman who looks to be back from an injury that has kept him out the last two weeks. It won't be easy to generate a strong rushing game in this one against a decent enough Pittsburgh Defensive Line, but Freeman offers another threat for Matt Ryan and the Falcons Offense in this one and the running game will have to be respected.
I do think Atlanta will have enough success on the ground to at least keep Pittsburgh honest and then the Secondary is likely to be exposed. Both Freeman and Tevin Coleman could be huge coming out of the backfield as Receivers for Ryan, while Calvin Ridley and Julio Jones can win their battles outside and give the Falcons every chance to move the chains with some real consistency.
Playing outdoors can be tough for a team like Atlanta who are used to playing indoors for much of the season, but I do think they can move the chains here against this Steelers Defensive Line.
The same can be said for the Pittsburgh Steelers although Le'Veon Bell's continuous holdout has dominated the headlines for them. Bell is supposed to be reporting back ahead of Week 7, but for now his absence is making it very tough for the Steelers even if their Offensive numbers have remained strong.
James Connor is simply not the threat that Bell is although the Running Back could have a strong game against a Falcons Defensive Line who have allowed 5 yards per carry. Finding the balance on the Offensive side of the ball is the key for the Steelers to give Ben Roethlisberger a little more support.
Statistically the numbers have been strong from the Quarter Back, but the connection with Antonio Brown has not been where it has been in the past. There are other Receiving threats for the Pittsburgh Steelers who are picking up their numbers and Pittsburgh should be able to make plenty of plays through the air.
One or two mistakes are likely to make the difference in this game between a cover or a non-cover. Both teams should be able to move the chains with some consistency and it is going to come down to which of the two Secondaries are able to make a big play or two that could determine which team wins.
Pittsburgh have not covered in any of their last seven home games and they were outplayed by the Ravens last week. This game is also the meat in the NFC North sandwich for the Pittsburgh Steelers and I will take the points in what could easily end up being a Field Goal game either way.
MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 3 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Denver Broncos - 1 Point @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Rams - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Saturday, 6 October 2018
College Football Week 6 Picks (October 6th)
Week 5 of the College Football season proved to be another winning one on the season, but we haven't even reached the half way stage of the regular season and that means this is not even close to the time to be giving yourself a pat on the back.
Last week I had a little more time to put out the full analysis for all of the selections but I know that won't be the case in Week 6, although I will have the breakdown for some of my selections which you can read below.
The full selections for Week 6 can be seen at the bottom of the thread.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: It will take a brave person to stick their neck on the line and oppose the Alabama Crimson Tide from repeating as National Champions in 2018. Many have considered this to the best team Nick Saban has had since taking over as Head Coach of the Crimson Tide and setting the benchmark for College Football and the team have been dominating opponents whether they have in or out of the SEC Conference.
The Crimson Tide have been winning games by a wide margin with an average of 41.2 points per game more than their opponents over the first five games of the season.
Things are pretty settled with Alabama who are already focused on trying to make the Play Offs and win the National Championship again. The same can't be said for the Arkansas Razorbacks in the first season Chad Morris is Head Coach of the programme.
Arkansas have begun with a 1-4 record and they are looking unlikely to surpass the four wins they earned in the 2017 season. Usually the Head Coach will be given time when taking over a team for the first season, but the Razorbacks have some high demands and the fans have not been impressed by what they are seeing despite bringing back nine starters on the Offensive unit and eight starters on the Defensive unit.
The 27 point home loss to the North Texas Mean Green is the performance that hurt the fans the most, but the Razorbacks have also been beaten by 31 points by the Auburn Tigers. Last week was better with a more competitive performance against the Texas A&M Aggies, but the challenge is much bigger this week against what looks like it could go down as one of the strongest College Football teams in years.
It is so important for the Razorbacks to try and establish the run in this one if they are going to have a serious chance of upsetting the Crimson Tide. The Offensive Line have yet to really impose themselves on games this season, but the Alabama Defensive Line has not been the all conquering unit of years gone by yet either so there is a chance for Arkansas to get something going.
This will make Ty Storey a little more comfortable at the Quarter Back position, but the inexperience could be tough to overcome. The Offensive Line have not really protected Storey as well as they would have liked and he will be under siege whenever the Razorbacks are in third and long or other obvious passing downs.
Storey will be making a third start in a row for the Razorbacks but facing pressure up front means he is more likely to make the mistakes that will see the ball turned over by the Crimson Tide.
Alabama have always been a team who love to pound the ball themselves and show their power on the ground and this Crimson Tide team have also had success moving the ball with their Running Backs. One area where Arkansas have played well this season is stopping the run with a decent Defensive Line holding teams to 3 yards per carry, but opponents have been able to expose the run game by going at the Secondary through the air.
There haven't been many times in the Nick Saban era that he has been able to call on a Quarter Back like Tua Tagovailoa and the passing numbers have been eye-catching. Tagovailoa should be able to dissect the Arkansas Secondary who have struggled in 2018 and the way the Crimson Tide have been rolling I do think they can cover what is a very big number on paper.
I am a bit concerned by Alabama's 1-5 record against the spread in their last six Conference games, and this is a big number. The Crimson Tide also haven't been able to beat Arkansas by more than 32 points in any of their last four games against one another, but this Alabama team may be the best of those and Arkansas look like a team lacking real confidence.
It isn't a straight forward play, but Alabama have won their two SEC games by 5 55 points and 22 points. I think Arkansas are more like Ole Miss than Texas A&M and I will back the Crimson Tide here.
Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The latest edition of the Red River Rivalry takes place in Week 6 of the 2018 season and there is every chance that this could be the first of two potential games between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns this season.
Both teams are unbeaten in Big 12 play, although the Texas Longhorns were beaten in Week 1 in another surprise loss to the Maryland Terrapins. That may be an issue when it comes to the Play Off selection committee later in the season, but Tom Herman won't worry about anything but running the table and finally returning to the top of the Big 12.
Herman is Coaching under some pressure at the moment with his seat feeling much warmer after the opening week loss to the Terrapins. However the four straight wins would have cooled that seat down and Herman will likely be safe in his job if he can help prevent the Oklahoma Sooners beating Texas three times in a row.
Much of the outcome of this game is going to be based on the big battle between the Sooners Offensive unit and the Texas Defensive unit. Both of those units have been in fine form in the 2018 season and it really does feel the outcome of this game will be decided on that side of the ball.
Kyler Murray has played very well at the Quarter Back position for Oklahoma and he is going be important to this game. Murray had to sit out the first series in Week 5, but he then came in and dominated the Baylor Bears and Texas have to find the right plays to make sure they can at least contain Murray to some extent.
Murray will be facing his toughest challenge against a Texas Secondary who have held teams to 218 passing yards per game, but he is capable of making plays with his legs too which makes it tough to contain the dual threat Quarter Back. The Longhorns Defensive Line can get some pressure up front, but they have to make sure they are able to be stout against the run and at least make Murray play from third and long where they can.
In all reality it looks like this could be another high-scoring rivalry game and that means the Longhorns have to find some real consistency from their own Offensive unit. They have not run the ball as well as they would have liked and it is the play of Sam Ehlinger at Quarter Back which has been helping them win games.
Ehlinger will need his Offensive Line to be at their best with the pressure Oklahoma have generated from the pass rush being a real key to some of their successes in 2018. The Quarter Back should have some success throwing the ball against the Oklahoma Secondary but Ehlinger will be under pressure to make sure he looks after the ball and that should give the Longhorns a chance of keeping this game close even in a losing effort.
The last four Red River Rivalry games have seen the winner take home the victory by 7 points or fewer. Oklahoma have won three of the last four, but Texas have lost all of those games by the same 5 point margin and I do think the points being given to the underdog are appealing enough to back them here.
MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 35 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange - 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 16.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 25.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 5: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Last week I had a little more time to put out the full analysis for all of the selections but I know that won't be the case in Week 6, although I will have the breakdown for some of my selections which you can read below.
The full selections for Week 6 can be seen at the bottom of the thread.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: It will take a brave person to stick their neck on the line and oppose the Alabama Crimson Tide from repeating as National Champions in 2018. Many have considered this to the best team Nick Saban has had since taking over as Head Coach of the Crimson Tide and setting the benchmark for College Football and the team have been dominating opponents whether they have in or out of the SEC Conference.
The Crimson Tide have been winning games by a wide margin with an average of 41.2 points per game more than their opponents over the first five games of the season.
Things are pretty settled with Alabama who are already focused on trying to make the Play Offs and win the National Championship again. The same can't be said for the Arkansas Razorbacks in the first season Chad Morris is Head Coach of the programme.
Arkansas have begun with a 1-4 record and they are looking unlikely to surpass the four wins they earned in the 2017 season. Usually the Head Coach will be given time when taking over a team for the first season, but the Razorbacks have some high demands and the fans have not been impressed by what they are seeing despite bringing back nine starters on the Offensive unit and eight starters on the Defensive unit.
The 27 point home loss to the North Texas Mean Green is the performance that hurt the fans the most, but the Razorbacks have also been beaten by 31 points by the Auburn Tigers. Last week was better with a more competitive performance against the Texas A&M Aggies, but the challenge is much bigger this week against what looks like it could go down as one of the strongest College Football teams in years.
It is so important for the Razorbacks to try and establish the run in this one if they are going to have a serious chance of upsetting the Crimson Tide. The Offensive Line have yet to really impose themselves on games this season, but the Alabama Defensive Line has not been the all conquering unit of years gone by yet either so there is a chance for Arkansas to get something going.
This will make Ty Storey a little more comfortable at the Quarter Back position, but the inexperience could be tough to overcome. The Offensive Line have not really protected Storey as well as they would have liked and he will be under siege whenever the Razorbacks are in third and long or other obvious passing downs.
Storey will be making a third start in a row for the Razorbacks but facing pressure up front means he is more likely to make the mistakes that will see the ball turned over by the Crimson Tide.
Alabama have always been a team who love to pound the ball themselves and show their power on the ground and this Crimson Tide team have also had success moving the ball with their Running Backs. One area where Arkansas have played well this season is stopping the run with a decent Defensive Line holding teams to 3 yards per carry, but opponents have been able to expose the run game by going at the Secondary through the air.
There haven't been many times in the Nick Saban era that he has been able to call on a Quarter Back like Tua Tagovailoa and the passing numbers have been eye-catching. Tagovailoa should be able to dissect the Arkansas Secondary who have struggled in 2018 and the way the Crimson Tide have been rolling I do think they can cover what is a very big number on paper.
I am a bit concerned by Alabama's 1-5 record against the spread in their last six Conference games, and this is a big number. The Crimson Tide also haven't been able to beat Arkansas by more than 32 points in any of their last four games against one another, but this Alabama team may be the best of those and Arkansas look like a team lacking real confidence.
It isn't a straight forward play, but Alabama have won their two SEC games by 5 55 points and 22 points. I think Arkansas are more like Ole Miss than Texas A&M and I will back the Crimson Tide here.
Oklahoma Sooners vs Texas Longhorns Pick: The latest edition of the Red River Rivalry takes place in Week 6 of the 2018 season and there is every chance that this could be the first of two potential games between the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns this season.
Both teams are unbeaten in Big 12 play, although the Texas Longhorns were beaten in Week 1 in another surprise loss to the Maryland Terrapins. That may be an issue when it comes to the Play Off selection committee later in the season, but Tom Herman won't worry about anything but running the table and finally returning to the top of the Big 12.
Herman is Coaching under some pressure at the moment with his seat feeling much warmer after the opening week loss to the Terrapins. However the four straight wins would have cooled that seat down and Herman will likely be safe in his job if he can help prevent the Oklahoma Sooners beating Texas three times in a row.
Much of the outcome of this game is going to be based on the big battle between the Sooners Offensive unit and the Texas Defensive unit. Both of those units have been in fine form in the 2018 season and it really does feel the outcome of this game will be decided on that side of the ball.
Kyler Murray has played very well at the Quarter Back position for Oklahoma and he is going be important to this game. Murray had to sit out the first series in Week 5, but he then came in and dominated the Baylor Bears and Texas have to find the right plays to make sure they can at least contain Murray to some extent.
Murray will be facing his toughest challenge against a Texas Secondary who have held teams to 218 passing yards per game, but he is capable of making plays with his legs too which makes it tough to contain the dual threat Quarter Back. The Longhorns Defensive Line can get some pressure up front, but they have to make sure they are able to be stout against the run and at least make Murray play from third and long where they can.
In all reality it looks like this could be another high-scoring rivalry game and that means the Longhorns have to find some real consistency from their own Offensive unit. They have not run the ball as well as they would have liked and it is the play of Sam Ehlinger at Quarter Back which has been helping them win games.
Ehlinger will need his Offensive Line to be at their best with the pressure Oklahoma have generated from the pass rush being a real key to some of their successes in 2018. The Quarter Back should have some success throwing the ball against the Oklahoma Secondary but Ehlinger will be under pressure to make sure he looks after the ball and that should give the Longhorns a chance of keeping this game close even in a losing effort.
The last four Red River Rivalry games have seen the winner take home the victory by 7 points or fewer. Oklahoma have won three of the last four, but Texas have lost all of those games by the same 5 point margin and I do think the points being given to the underdog are appealing enough to back them here.
MY PICKS: Alabama Crimson Tide - 35 Points @ 1.85 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns + 7.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 9.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Syracuse Orange - 3 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 16.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs - 25.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 21 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Week 5: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)