Boxing Picks 2018- Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz (March 3rd)

We all love Boxing and so it can be heartbreaking when you hear of some of the terrible injuries that can come out of this sport.

This past week Scott Westgarth sadly passed away hours after winning his Light-Heavyweight bout in Doncaster and the whole Boxing world did come together. His post-fight interview highlighted what Boxing can mean to the fighters and the fans with Westgarth openly admitting he continues fighting for the love of the sport rather than chasing World Titles.

It's the reason I can't stomach people describing Boxers as 'cowards' or battering them on social media when they come up short of expectations. No one who steps into a Boxing ring and is willing to take punches to the face can be a 'coward' and you can only hope the Westgarth family will be able to grieve and then celebrate the life of Scott.


It is a hard sport where terrible injuries can occur, but the love for this sport can be hard to put aside even in the light of horrible incidents. Boxing gives so much to so many and Westgarth's love for the sport shined through his final interview, the same love everyone involved in the sport either as participants or spectators will speak about.


This weekend we have a huge number of pivotal fights with the main event coming from the Heavyweight Division as Deontay Wilder defends his WBC belt against Luis Ortiz.

I just hope everyone is healthy at the end of the night as we look forward to some tremendous fights.

The Boxing of interest begins in Sheffield before shifting to New York where Madison Square Garden and the Barclays Center hosts two separate cards of real note. All of the top fights this weekend could open the door for even bigger ones later in 2018 as long as the 'names' can all come through with wins which is far from guaranteed.


I didn't have any success with the two Boxing Picks made last weekend, but 2018 has been a good year so far and on Saturday I have a number of selections from a very busy, and fun looking night across three venues.

Lenroy Thomas vs David Allen

The two main undercard bouts on the Sheffield bill topped by the return of Kell Brook both look fascinating for different reasons.

Gamal Yafai vs Gavin McDonnell provides the chief support in what is a very close fight and certainly closer than the layers are indicating. I was close to picking McDonnell to win that fight with his experience getting the better of the younger Yafai brother, but I think there are enough doubts about how much McDonnell has left in the tank to leave that alone.

However I will have a selection from the Heavyweight rematch between Lenroy Thomas and David Allen for the Commonwealth Heavyweight Title. Back in May 2017 it was Thomas who got the better of Allen in a Split Decision win, but Allen has got his request from Eddie Hearn to have a rematch.

Allen was criticised by Hearn for some of the preparation for the first fight, but has looked in much better shape in the build to this one. He looks like he will be lighter and more focused on a fight which may be a defining one for Allen and one where a loss could see him retire even at this young age.

Hearn was close to losing all faith in Allen but has given him this opportunity and I do think Allen will take it. However Thomas showed enough slickness and resilience when they fought at Bramall Lane to think he can cause problems for the one-dimensional Allen in this one and I would not be surprised to see the cards read again.

Thomas is the better boxer and so he may do enough to earn the Decision again, but I think beating Allen on the cards will be as difficult as it was last May when Thomas was given a Split Decision in a fight most thought he won comfortably. I was close to picking that to be the outcome of this one, but I think Allen's focus looks better and he might just bully his way to the win.

Finding a stoppage may be difficult for both men- I don't think Allen is very good and Thomas is slick enough to stay out of trouble for the distance of the fight. On the other hand Allen is a very tough man and so being stopped is not something I envision for a fighter who went the distance with Dillian Whyte and was stopped very late, and on his feet, by Luis Ortiz.

The layers tend to agree that the cards will be needed and I will back that to be the outcome of this one.

Kell Brook vs Sergey Rabchenko

Everything about the Sheffield card has been built around the return of Kell Brook who has suffered two devastating defeats.

There is no disgrace in losing to either Gennady Golovkin or Errol Spence Jr, but fracturing both eye sockets, first the right and then the left, in those losses is a difficult place to come back from.

Kell Brook has decided to move up to the 154 limit in the Light-Middleweight Division having struggled to make 147 for some time, but not wanting to give up the IBF World Title he worked so hard to win. Spence ripped that away from Brook at Bramall Lane and the Sheffield native admitted he regretted draining his body to make that weight again, especially after coming back down from Middleweight having challenged Golovkin.

It is an interesting time for the move up considering long time rival Amir Khan has joined the Matchroom stable and potentially opened up the chance for him and Brook to finally get it on. That's still not out of the question, but Brook has to prove himself immediately in a tough Division where the World Champions look like quality operators.

Of course the promotion of the card will speak about how difficult Sergey Rabchenko should be as an opponent and he is well enough known in Boxing circles in the United Kingdom to push that forward. However Rabchenko was stopped by Tony Harrison 2016 and also lost to Anthony Mudine on a Decision when he has stepped his level of opponents.

Prior to the injury issues, Brook would have been considered a step above this kind of level of competition and I do think he is going to come in and show there is something left in the tank. I won't be surprised if Rabchenko demonstrates toughness and Brook may have to come through some sticky moments as he shakes off the ring rust of being out of the ring for ten months.

Eventually I would expect to see Brook beginning to find some timing with his patented 'chocolate brownies' and I can see him producing enough big shots to find a stoppage in the second half of this fight. Fighting for the WBC Silver Belt in this bout will also mean Brook is immediately placed in a strong position in the World Rankings at this weight with a win, although I am convinced Eddie Hearn's aim is to get him and Amir Khan to produce a couple of wins before setting up a grudge fight potentially at the end of 2018.

Brook can do his part and I will back him to stop Rabchenko in the second half of this fight. His opponent will likely get some Rounds under Brook's belt with his toughness, but I can see the Brook power wearing down Rabchenko for the stoppage either via corner or through the referee.

Josh Taylor vs Winston Campos

There is a lot of excitement around Josh Taylor and many are expecting him to move up to World level in the Light-Welterweight Division which has something of a vacuum to fill at the very top.

Terence Crawford unified the Division before making his move up to Welterweight to chase some of the big names in Boxing, while Mikey Garcia is having his first fight in this weight class next week but still has unfinished business in the Lightweight ranks.

Some of those World Titles that were vacated by Crawford will be in the hands of fighters in the weeks ahead, including potentially Terry Flanagan from Manchester, but for now Taylor will continue what has been a big rise since turning pro in 2015.

There is much warranted hype around Taylor and I am a big fan.

Becoming the first man to stop Miguel Vazquez in another step up in level of competition highlighted what many expect from Taylor and that is a World Champion in the making.

This weekend he has to take on a replacement in Winston Campos who comes in after Humberto Sato was injured.

Campos may not have lost since back in 2013, but this is a big step up from the recent level of opponents he has faced. He has been fighting back in Nicaragua against opponents way short of what Taylor brings to the table and travelling abroad to take on a talent like this is a big ask for Campos.

Being a southpaw means he could be awkward, but two of the three losses Campos has suffered have come by stoppage including his last loss to Ismael Barroso who is perhaps best known in the United Kingdom for losing to Anthony Crolla after beating Kevin Mitchell.

Taylor has power and I expect him to turn on the style against the kind of opponent I would expect him to dismiss. He might take a couple of Rounds to find his range against the southpaw, but I would think Taylor is able to get Campos out of there somewhere around the Fourth or Fifth Round. Backing Taylor to win this one between somewhere from the Fourth Round to the Sixth Round looks the call and worthy of an interest.

Dmitry Bivol vs Sullivan Barrera

There are many who are tipping Dmitry Bivol to take over as 'the man' in the Light-Heavyweight Division but there is no doubt what a stacked Division this is.

This may be the biggest test Bivol has had as he faces Sullivan Barrera who still has just the sole loss on his resume which came against Andre Ward. Barrera has since won his last four fights in a row and his wins over Vyacheslav Shabranskyy and Joe Smith look decent enough on paper.

However Barrera was knocked down in both of those wins and he is now facing an opponent who has been blessed with power and who has not been taken beyond the Fourth Round in any of his last four wins. Bivol has ten KO's in his twelve wins, but Barrera has plenty of experience which will test the WBA Light-Heavyweight Champion and see exactly how true the hype around him really is.

It won't be a surprise that this is the toughest fight Bivol will have had in what will be his thirteenth professional bout. So far he has managed the step up in levels effectively and I do think he has the power to hurt Barrera and, importantly, complete the stoppage when he does get him in trouble.

Those early Knock Downs against Shabranskyy and Smith are a concern for Barrera especially as Bivol will look to get after him early, but I also think the latter is a capable boxer who can bide his time.

He may need to do that if Barrera decides to try and take Bivol into the second half of the fight and test his stamina, but I think Bivol will be comfortable in the fight and can show a different side to the way he approaches things in the ring. Being able to start outboxing a Cuban like Andre Ward did in his Unanimous Decision over Barrera will certainly show there is more to Bivol than simply a 'search and destroy' attitude.

Ultimately though I do think the power will end up being a telling factor in the second half of the fight as Bivol is able to break down the older Barrera. The Cuban has been down too often for my liking and I think Bivol will end up finishing the job to become the first man to stop Barrera, although it may come after taking away the heart of his opponent.

Backing Bivol to force another stoppage looks the way to go, but I think it may come in the second half of this World Title fight as he first outboxes and then powers through Barrera.

Andre Dirrell vs Jose Uzcategui

This is a rematch of a fight that took place back in May 2017.

Oh, it's a rematch between Andre Dirrell and Jose Uzcategui and not Dirrell's uncle and Uzcategui just to be clear.

A controversial ending to the first fight was made all the more memorable when Dirrell's uncle landed a couple of sucker punches on Uzcategui after the fight had ended in response to the Colombian being disqualified for hitting Dirrell after the bell in the Eighth Round.

Uzcategui was ahead on the cards at the time and looked to be the stronger boxer and that is why he comes into the rematch as a pretty strong favourite to win the fight.

I've never been a fan of Dirrell but he is a slick boxer and I think working with Virgil Hunter would have been good for him. Hunter has a winning attitude that should get the best out of Dirrell who has perhaps underachieved in his career despite some high profile fights he has been involved in.

His only two professional losses have come at the hands of Brits Carl Froch and James DeGale and Dirrell may feel he was on the short end of a couple of bad cards in those fights. Even then the failure to win a World Title would have hurt Dirrell more and this is his chance to at least get that part right in a tough Super-Middleweight Division where some big fights could await for the winner.

Most had to have been impressed with the way Uzcategui fought the first time out and I think he can be disappointed that he didn't win the fight which could easily have ended on a Technical Decision rather than the disqualification. I imagine he will look to put the pressure on Dirrell from the off in this one too, but I think the American would have learned a lot from the last fight and having Virgil Hunter in his corner should be a positive.

Dirrell should be able to know how to better deal with Uzcategui in this rematch and I think he will end up boxing his way to a success and taking the IBF World Title at the end of the bout. Having a small interest on Dirrell to find a way to a points win as the underdog is my selection from the chief support on the Deontay Wilder-Luis Ortiz card.

Sergey Kovalev vs Igor Mikhalkin

Everything about the card in Madison Square Garden is to try and set up a huge Light-Heavyweight Unification fight at the end of 2018 and the headline act is the former kingpin of this Division Sergey Kovalev.

No matter how you feel about his two defeats to Andre Ward (I thought Kovalev sneaked the first fight and was on his way to a loss in the second before the controversial ending) this is all about rebuilding for Kovalev.

He remains a big draw in this Division and Kovalev was able to pick up one of the belts lost to Ward in his last fight after the belts were all vacated by the American heading into retirement. Kovalev defends the WBO World Title against Igor Mikhalkin having dismissed the challenge of Vyacheslav Shabranskyy very easily in his first fight after the Ward duo.

Kovalev didn't face a lot of resistance that night as he crushed Shabranskyy in a couple of Rounds, but Mikhalkin is supposed to bring in more durability.

Mikhalkin has only been beaten once professionally, and he has a couple of decent recent wins which will be pushed forward. However I don't think he is a legitimate threat to Krusher and I very much think Kovalev breaks him down and forces the stoppage in this fight.

That is what Kovalev did to the durable Canadian Jean Pascal having stopped him in the Seventh and Eighth Round in his two fights against him. Comparing Pascal to Mikhalkin is wrong perhaps, but I do think the latter is going up a couple of levels compared with previous opponents and I also feel he has been given to Kovalev to showcase the latter and have him headline a huge Unification in the Light-Heavyweight Division later this year.

You have to respect what Kovalev is able to do and his power is still there which means the end of this fight could come very early if Mikhalkin's durability is overstated. He simply hasn't fought someone who can hit anything like as hard as Kovalev, although the southpaw stance may jus take a couple of Rounds for the favourite to figure out.

Once Kovalev figures it out I expect his punishing style being too much for Mikhalkin and another stoppage to be added to the record. I am looking for Kovalev to get this done in the mid-Rounds of this one and backing him to win anywhere from the Fifth to the Eighth Round looks about right.

Deontay Wilder vs Luis Ortiz

It has been described as the biggest Heavyweight fight on American soil since Lennox Lewis last defended his World Title against Vitali Klitschko back in 2003.

I have to agree with two of the top four/five Heavyweight fighters on the planet meeting in Brooklyn for the WBC Heavyweight Championship.

Deontay Wilder has long been criticised for a lacklustre resume, but I like the brash American and I think he has not always been dealt a good hand. Having a couple of live contenders fall out of bouts after failing drugs tests is not his problem and Wilder has managed to dismiss any other challenger without too much fuss.

One of those who ended a potential fight with a failure of a drugs test is Luis Ortiz, although his explanation has been good enough to get him back into a position to fight for the World Title months later.

No matter how this fight goes, I just hope everyone is willing to give Wilder his credit for getting with someone as dangerous as Ortiz especially when he didn't have to do this. Everyone is quick to downplay achievements from boxers after the fact, but there is no doubt what a threat Ortiz is considering the number of people out there picking him to win.

Ortiz has looked in great shape, but rumours of a hand injury will be a concern for the Cuban.

From a technical point of view you have to feel Ortiz is going to be capable of outboxing Wilder and the counter punching ability will make him a threat in this bout. He is tough, but Wilder should have the edge when it comes to athleticism and speed, while I also very much believe in the one shot power the American possesses.

I do think Wilder is going to approach this like he did when he first fought Bermane Stiverne- Wilder showcased his boxing ability and avoided being dragged into a fight to win by a comfortable margin on the cards. While he won't be able to completely outbox Ortiz the same way, I do think Wilder is not going to want to get in and blast the Cuban from the ring like he did the second time Stiverne stood in front of him.

The bottom line is Ortiz is dangerous and I expect Wilder to take his time and try and drain the energy out of a fighter that is allegedly a few years older than the 38 listed. Ortiz is dangerous and I am not buying the poorer recent performances as I question is motivation in those fights.

In this one he is highly motivated and there was a time where I thought Ortiz was the man in the Heavyweight Division after Tyson Fury deposed Wladimir Klitschko and then had his own troubles. Two years ago you may even have favoured Ortiz in this fight, but I don't like the inactivity for this older fighter and I also believe Wilder has improved.

I am looking for Wilder to show all of the experience he has learned and steer clear of early exchanges and try and drain the Ortiz energy before teeing off later as the fight develops. He might not earn the highlight reel stoppage like he did in the win over Stiverne, but I can see Wilder just overwhelming a tired Ortiz late in the fight.

It'll either be the late stoppage or a 116-112 kind of decision for Wilder who can then go back to calling out Anthony Joshua even if I don't believe that fight is going to happen before 2019. I fancy a referee or corner stoppage in the Championship Rounds as Ortiz begins to ship a little too much punishment and Wilder can claim the biggest win of his professional career.

King Kong came to New York and gave a decent account of himself before being cornered and seeing fatigue end his resistance. I expect that to happen here and backing Wilder late is the call in a fight that many decent boxing brains see an upset occurring.

Just don't be 'that guy' who claims Ortiz was over-rated if Wilder does win the fight.

MY PICKS: Lenroy Thomas-David Allen Fight Go the Distance @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Kell Brook to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Josh Taylor to Win Between 4-6 @ 2.87 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Dmitry Bivol to Win Between 7-12 @ 3.50 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Andre Dirrell to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Sergey Kovalev to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.75 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Deontay Wilder to Win Between 9-12 @ 5.50 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Boxing 2018 Update: 7-5, + 10.28 Units (20 Units Staked, + 51.40% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2018 (March 2nd)

The Tennis Picks from Thursday were all being played at the ATP and WTA tournaments in Acapulco so I will add the 'weekly totals' to this thread on Friday morning.

Any Picks from either the Sao Paulo or Acapulco tournaments from the matches scheduled to be played on Friday will also be added at that time, but I will begin with a single pick from the two ATP Dubai Semi Final matches that are set to be played.


Filip Krajinovic + 2.5 games v Lucas Pouille: Some times you have to look in the mirror and admit where you are wrong and my feelings about Lucas Pouille and his limited game have to be put to one side.

Regardless of what the numbers say about Pouille, he seems to just find a way to hang around in matches and I have to give credit to the clear mental resolve he demonstrates on a weekly basis on the Tour.

After reaching the Final in Marseille last week, Pouille is into the Semi Final in Dubai and he is perhaps the favourite to go on and win the tournament. However I don't think he will have an easy day in the office against Filip Krajinovic who has flown up the World Rankings thanks to some very strong results at Challenger level before upsetting his way through to the Paris Masters Final.

Krajinovic has clearly earned some confidence from that run and he has been playing well enough in 2018 to feel he can keep this match very close. The serve has been important for both players, but it is Krajinovic who has displayed the better returning ability and he should have beaten Pouille in Marseille last week.

Like his opponent, Krajinovic has backed up a decent week with another good showing in Dubai and the numbers suggest he could overturn the defeat to Pouille last week. As long as he serves to the standard he has produced this week and in 2018, I like Krajinovic to keep this close at the least by taking one set, but there is also every chance he can upset the Frenchman through to the Dubai Final too.


Horacio Zeballos v Rogerio Dutra Silva: The layers are finding it hard to separate these two players at the Sao Paulo Quarter Final stage and I do think it has the making of a tight match.

Both Horacio Zeballos and Rogerio Dutra Silva have had a couple of strong wins this week, although the form has to go to Dutra Silva who has been a little more dominant in his wins.

However it is Zeballos who has the stand out win having beaten Gael Monfils in three tough sets on Thursday. That is the second time this week that Zeballos has had to win a deciding set and I do wonder if there is going to be a little fatigue which can put him in a tough spot in this match.

Dutra Silva has had it much easier with back to back straight sets wins and he is playing with some confidence. I do think the home crowd will also give Dutra Silva a boost and I am not surprised the layers are finding it hard to separate the players.

Both have served pretty well on the clay courts, but it is Zeballos who has the slight edge and I think he will be able to create a few opportunities against the serve. It is likely to be another match that goes the distance for Zeballos, but he has beaten a home favourite here in Sao Paulo already this week and I will look for him to overcome any fatigue and work his way through to the Semi Final.


Nicolas Jarry + 2.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: He may have reached the Final in Quito last month, but Albert Ramos-Vinolas should be disappointed with his performances during the South American Golden Swing.

He has lost some poor matches and is just 2-2 from his last three tournaments on the clay courts which should be his favoured surface. Ramos-Vinolas has perhaps not returned as well as he would have liked to make life a little easier for himself, but he should be motivated to earn revenge over Nicolas Jarry who beat him in Rio last week.

Jarry went down in the Semi Final in Rio to eventual winner Diego Sebastian Schwartzman, but he has bounced back this week and reached a third Quarter Final during the Golden Swing.

My one concern for Jarry has to be the amount of tennis he has played over the last two weeks especially as he has needed a final set decider to win both matches this week. However Jarry has been serving very, very well for the most part and that has allowed him to take his chances on the break points as opponents have just been put under some pressure.

I would expect Ramos-Vinolas to be better in this match than he was in his defeat to Jarry in Rio, but I still think it is worth taking the games with the strong serving Chilean. His World Ranking is not the best, but Jarry has been playing above that level and I will take the games and look for him to keep this one close.


Kevin Anderson - 3.5 games v Jared Donaldson: I was pretty surprised by the dominant win Jared Donaldson produced over Feliciano Lopez in the Quarter Final, but matching that level is asking a lot from the young American.

Donaldson has been returning well so far in Acapulco, but I would be surprised if he is able to have as much success as he did against Lopez when he faces Kevin Anderson. The South African has been very solid again this week as he reaches yet another Semi Final in 2018 and I think Anderson deserves a lot of credit for the performances which have taken him into the top ten of the World Rankings.

The Anderson serve has been a potent weapon throughout 2018 and it was the difference maker against Hyeon Chung in the Quarter Final too. It has also meant Anderson can approach return games with some confidence and he managed better numbers than his season stats for the third match in a row.

There has been a clear decline in the return numbers in each passing Round though and Donaldson does have a very good serve which has been working well. However this is a player who has still got a tendency to throw in a loose service game from time to time and I think that could be a huge blow to his chances of beating Anderson.

Donaldson has some decent return numbers thanks to the way he has been playing this week with three very strong wins. Those return numbers are impressive, but the rest of 2018 has seen him have some difficulties and the win over Lopez showed return numbers far greater than those produced in his other matches against top 50 Ranked players in 2018.

I will look for Anderson to use his serve to put the pressure on Donaldson which Lopez failed to produce in the Quarter Final. That should help Anderson reach yet another Final in 2018 and I will look for him to cover this number.


Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 games v Daria Gavrilova: The defending Champion Lesia Tsurenko crushed Kristina Mladenovic in the Quarter Final on Thursday and she has been in very strong form all week in Acapulco.

It is clearly a tournament and conditions that Tsurenko has enjoyed and the level being produced at the moment should be too much for Daria Gavrilova who had a much tougher path through to the Semi Final on Thursday.

The problem for Gavrilova is her serve has been vulnerable and the way Tsurenko has been returning it would not be a surprise to me if she actually won more points against the serve than Gavrilova is able to hold onto. When you begin to feel that has a decent chance of happening, Tsurenko looks a decent favourite to back in this one.

I am more confident with the pick considering how well Tsurenko has been serving so far this week too and she may be able to restrict what Gavrilova is able to do on the return. The Australian has been returning very well this week and it has helped her through difficult moments in matches, but a confident Tsurenko may make it that much harder to fight her way back into the match once she moves ahead.

I will look for Tsurenko to have the better of this match either side of the court and I think she is going to move through to the Final with a cover of this handicap.

MY PICKS: Filip Krajinovic + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Horacio Zeballos @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Nicolas Jarry + 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-12, - 6.14 Units (44 Units Staked, - 13.95% Yield)

Weekend Football Picks 2018 (March 1-5)

In a couple of years we could be just about coming out of a Winter Break if the Premier League proposals are improved, but for now all of the teams in the top flight in England will be getting ready for another important round of fixtures.

I've started this thread on a Thursday to cover the Arsenal vs Manchester City fixture which is being made up from the weekend when the two teams met in the League Cup Final.

Arsenal would have seen the first silverware of the season slip away on Sunday and also their chances of a top four finish look as bleak as the weather to say the least.

The same could potentially be said for Chelsea who blew a 0-1 lead at Manchester United last weekend and have to revisit Manchester to take on the runaway leaders on Sunday. With the teams above them all having what look like winnable League games, Chelsea could find themselves 5 points off the top four with nine games remaining at the end of the weekend.

Antonio Conte is back under pressure and Chelsea have a big month ahead which includes hosting Tottenham Hotspur in the Premier League as well as a trip to Barcelona after this game at Manchester City. Those three games may just determine how this season is going to end for Conte and Chelsea before what looks an inevitable parting in the summer.

The likes of Tottenham Hotspur, Liverpool and Manchester United have to take advantage of Chelsea's tough fixture this weekend. It is very important to the latter two teams who meet at Old Trafford next Saturday as the race for the Champions League places begins to heat up.

This weekend is also a big one at the bottom of the table with Southampton hosting Stoke City the biggest game for those teams threatened with relegation. It really feels like the losing team could spiral out of the Division in that fixture which only increases the importance of the three points on offer on another big weekend in England.


Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: The worst thing that could happen to Arsene Wenger and Arsenal is conceding early in this Premier League game on Thursday as they try and get the fans back behind them after a poor showing in the League Cup Final.

It may have been a different story if Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang had not missed what looked a big opportunity in the first ten minutes of the Cup Final, but there was not a lot of belief in the Arsenal ranks once they went 2-0 down.

Bouncing back against Manchester City won't be easy with Pep Guardiola unlikely to make wholesale changes to his starting eleven. I can imagine some defensive changes are made to make sure Vincent Kompany is fit for the Chelsea game on Sunday, while the likes of Bernado Silva, Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus could also freshen attacking areas, but Manchester City will bring a strong squad to town.

Their recent away performances have not been as strong as Guardiola may have liked and that does make Manchester City look short odds to win here at the Emirates Stadium. As poor as Arsenal were on Sunday, I do expect a reaction at home where they have a strong record this season and I would be stunned if they waved the white flag as quickly at the Emirates Stadium.

Arsenal certainly can cause problems for Manchester City at the back, but the bigger concern for the fans will be how poor Arsenal have looked defensively. It would be a huge surprise if they are able to contain Manchester City and I am going back to the same market which only just let me down on Sunday.

Namely I expect to see four or more goals shared out.

Neither defence is watertight and Arsenal games at the Emirates Stadium against the teams above them have produced fireworks so far this season. The League games against Manchester United (1-3), Liverpool (3-3) and Chelsea (2-2) have all produced four or more goals and Arsenal showed considerable fight in all of those games despite being behind in all of those.

I expect a little more from Arsenal going forward at home, while Manchester City will play the same way and look to cause panic in the backline for the home team. As long as Arsenal don't give up in the same manner they did at Wembley Stadium, chances should come through the ninety minutes and I will back four or more goals to be shared out.


Burnley v Everton Pick: This may be the opening live Premier League game of the weekend but everything is pointing to a tight encounter with few goals scored.

There are times when that expectation can be blown away by an early goal which will produce an entertaining game, but Burnley and Everton will both focus on being tight and tough to beat. With Sean Dyche and Sam Allardyce having a week to organise the defences in the manner they would like, it could be difficult for the creative players to really show off their talents and goals may come at a premium.

Burnley home games have simply not featured a lot of goals this season with just twenty-one scored here in 14 Premier League games. Late goals have seen the last couple end 1-1 and that is the only scoreline that really worries me when it comes to my pick from this fixture.

Backing under 1.5 goals looks to be the call with only late goals preventing that happening in the last 3 Burnley home games. The team continue to be tough to break down and more than half of their 14 Premier League home games have ended with one or fewer goals shared out.

Everton have been poorer defensively away from home which is a concern, while they have some talented players in the attacking areas that could give Burnley problems. However the defeat last weekend at Watford showed an Everton team more focused on getting things right defensively which affected their attacking intent and I am going to have a small interest in one or fewer goals scored here.

Some may want to keep the 1-1 score on their side, which is a real player having occurred in 3 of the last 4 Burnley games, but I will look for both teams to be tight enough to prevent a huge outlay of goals in this one.


Leicester City v Bournemouth Pick: There is still something for Leicester City to aim for from a strong finish in the Premier League but they were lacking some ideas in the 1-1 home draw with Stoke City last weekend. The Foxes improved once they equalised, but the focus has to be on winning the FA Cup now they have reached the Quarter Final Round.

However there is every chance 7th place in the Premier League will offer Leicester City the best chance for a return to European Football next season and they should be able to give Bournemouth a few problems in this one.

I don't doubt Bournemouth can have their successes too if Leicester City are as flat as they were last weekend. Bournemouth have been scoring plenty of goals in their recent games although defensively there remain some problems which comes with the style of play Eddie Howe wishes to employ.

Recent Leicester City home games have not featured as many goals as you may think, but I think they can get one more than last weekend when they host Bournemouth this weekend. The away side are capable of punishing Leicester City if they defend as they did against Stoke City, but I also expect more from the home team and will back at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Southampton v Stoke City Pick: A true relegation six pointer looks to be set to be played at St Mary's on Saturday when Southampton host Stoke City and there is a sense that the winning team can use this as a springboard to avoid relegation while the losing team would be in huge trouble.

That means tension in the air and that could restrict the way both Southampton and Stoke City are able to express themselves.

Both teams have had some positive results of late, but the problem has been turning some of those into wins. Stoke City may be particularly concerned having missed a penalty for a home win over Brighton, and also leading at both Bournemouth and Leicester City without picking up the three points.

However they have looked a little more solid under Paul Lambert's guidance and only a couple of mistakes have let them down. They are facing a Southampton team who have not scored more than once at home in any of their last 7 Premier League games going back to November and Stoke City may feel they can restrict the home team which could lead to an upset here.

Southampton look very short for a team who have not won a League game at home since the 4-1 win over Everton in November, especially as they failed to beat Huddersfield Town and Brighton in that run. Stoke City are a similar kind of team who will look to frustrate the home team and then look for their classy players like Xherdan Shaqiri to create something.

The lack of wins for Southampton makes it hard to think they can win this fixture comfortably and backing Stoke City on the Asian Handicap which returns half the stake in a narrow loss looks the call. Stoke City have not played well away from home for much of the season, but they have led in their last 2 away League games and getting in front will likely make it very tough for Southampton to beat them.

The home team haven't had a clean sheet in their last 9 Premier League games at St Mary's so I will take Stoke City with the start on the Asian Handicap.


Tottenham Hotspur v Huddersfield Town Pick: Finishing in the top four and having a place back in the Champions League is very important for Tottenham Hotspur who are set to move into New White Hart Lane in August.

The late goal at Crystal Palace last weekend has helped Tottenham Hotspur move into the top four and they have a chance to put 5 points between themselves and 5th placed Chelsea who travel to Manchester City on Sunday.

Hosting Huddersfield Town at Wembley Stadium where Tottenham Hotspur have won 6 in a row in all competitions should be the kind of fixture Spurs are able to win comfortably enough.

The only doubt I really have is that Tottenham Hotspur play the Second Leg of their Champions League Last 16 tie against Juventus during the week with that tie finely balanced at 2-2 after the First Leg in Turin. The fans will be distracted by looking ahead to a big Champions League night so the key for Mauricio Pochettino is making sure his players are not overlooking a Huddersfield Town team who have won back to back Premier League games.

If they are Huddersfield Town can be organised enough to cause some problems, although they have not been capable of really shutting down the very best teams in the Premier League. There is no doubt that Tottenham Hotspur are one of those and their big names were rested in the win over Rochdale and I do like the home team to produce a comfortable win on the day.

Huddersfield Town did win at The Hawthorns last weekend, but they had been struggling away from home in the Premier League prior to that. Conceding goals has been an issue for Huddersfield Town and Tottenham Hotspur have been scoring plenty of goals at Wembley Stadium in recent months.

The Terriers have played 8 Premier League games against the top six clubs this season so far and they have conceded at least twice in 7 of those. They have lost 7 of those 8 games and 6 of those losses have come by two or more goals with 4 of those coming by three or more margins.

I would anticipate Tottenham Hotspur are able to win by at least a two goal margin on Saturday, but I am going to back them on the Asian Handicap to perhaps go one better. At worst I would expect the stake to be returned, but Liverpool and Arsenal have beaten Huddersfield Town by three or more goals in home games this season and I will look for Tottenham Hotspur to do the same.

That would be ideal preparation for the Champions League Second Leg against Juventus on Wednesday.


Watford v West Brom Pick: This could be it as far as West Brom's future as a Premier League club is concerned as well as Alan Pardew's short time managing at The Hawthorns.

Pardew was reportedly criticised by Chris Brunt for the poor tactics employed in the 1-2 defeat to Huddersfield Town last weekend which has put West Brom in a really deep hole as far as survival is concerned. The fans were also very unhappy with the performance and the board have seemingly given Pardew one game to prove that he can turn things around in the final 10 Premier League games.

It is a big ask for West Brom even if they change manager and they head to Vicarage Road where Watford have won back to back League games. The home team have battled through a deep injury list which added Gerard Deulofeu to it last weekend, but Watford have looked much more settled with Javi Gracia than they were under Marco Silva during his final days in charge.

However this has to be the kind of fixture that Alan Pardew would have targeted for West Brom to try and get out of trouble. The same could be said last weekend against Huddersfield Town at home, but defensively there are too many goals being conceded by West Brom.

The Baggies have created some big chances of their own though and I think they will have chances in this one too. Even though Watford earned a clean sheet last weekend, they have been defensively poor at times and games at Vicarage Road have seen plenty of goals shared out prior to the 1-0 win over Everton.

I expect both teams will have their chances to score in this fixture, and backing at least three goals to be shared out looks a big price. West Brom games have involved plenty of goals of late and they can't sit back in this one, while Watford have been scoring and conceding goals for fun at home prior to last weekend.

Earlier this season these teams shared out four goals, but I will simply look for at least three to be scored in this one.


Liverpool v Newcastle United Pick: A cold snap has hit the United Kingdom over the last few days, but Liverpool and Newcastle United can combine to warm up the fans with an entertaining game of football on Saturday afternoon.

Games at Anfield have certainly not been short of goals in recent weeks, but Rafa Benitez will try and set Newcastle United up to frustrate his former club. That looks a long shot when you see how Newcastle United have defended away from home and instead the better option may be to try and get up further up the pitch and try and threaten Liverpool.

That has been made tougher with the likes of Jonjo Shelvey, Dwight Gayle and Islam Slimani not expected to be involved this weekend. However Newcastle United will still believe they have enough to at least cause problems for a Liverpool team who have not had a home clean sheet in their last 6 at Anfield in all competitions.

On the other hand, Liverpool have been very good in the final third in recent weeks which has seen the team score at least twice in their last 7 at Anfield. They will look to get Newcastle United on the back foot very early in this one and then look to counter their visitors when they do take some risks, and Liverpool will note how effective the other top clubs have been against Newcastle United at home.

Manchester United, Chelsea and Manchester City have all scored at least three times in home wins over Newcastle United this season, although The Magpies have scored in all 3 of those League games too. They could play a part in this one, but ultimately it would be a surprise if Liverpool don't win the game considering the kind of form they have been producing.

Backing at least four goals looks to be the play at odds against though and it is only a slightly shorter price than backing Liverpool to win a high-scoring game with that many goals shared out. It covers a high-scoring draw like Tottenham Hotspur earned at Anfield recently, while West Brom won 2-3 here in the FA Cup at the end of January which has to be respected.

Of course I do give a strong lean towards a Liverpool win, but they could concede on the way to help reach the four goal mark. All 3 Newcastle United away Premier League games at teams in the current top five have ended with at least four goals shared out and I will back that to be the outcome at odds against.


Brighton v Arsenal Pick: Arsene Wenger looked completely dejected in his post-match interview after watching his Arsenal team being outclassed by Manchester City for the second time in the space of a few days.

Questions have been raised about the future of Wenger again and the players have to pick themselves up from their confidence taking a battering worse than the United Kingdom has been from the 'Beast from the East'.

A poor away record in the Premier League doesn't inspire a lot of belief in Arsenal doing that this weekend even though they travel to the south coast to take on a Brighton team fighting relegation. However Brighton have picked up their form of late and 1 loss from their last 8 games in all competitions at the Amex Stadium makes them dangerous.

Brighton have begun to find goals from their play and have recorded 4 wins from their last 5 games at the Amex Stadium. They have scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 home games in all competitions while Brighton have beaten West Ham United 3-1 and Swansea City 4-1 in their last couple of Premier League games here and will feel they can pose questions for an Arsenal backline which is far from being watertight.

Those defensive issues were highlighted in Arsenal's defeats at Bournemouth and Swansea City in the Premier League since the turn of the calendar year. With the confidence Brighton have been playing with, they will certainly feel they can create chances against Arsenal, although I also expect a lot better from Arsenal when they go forward.

With the attacking players Arsenal can call upon, they will be able to get at a Brighton defence which has not kept a clean sheet in any of their last 6 at home in all competitions. The likes of Manchester City, Liverpool and Chelsea have all visited the Amex Stadium and scored at least twice and I do think Arsenal will have their chances in this one too.

Picking a winner isn't easy when you consider the form of the two teams- I would have favoured Brighton to avoid defeat if they had a better record against the top six clubs this season, but they concede too many goals in those games. On the other hand Arsenal have struggled away from home all season and instead I am backing at least three goals to be shared out.

That has happened in the last 6 Brighton home games in all competitions, while 5 of Arsenal's last 8 away games have also seen that number reached. Neither defence will be confident of keeping a clean sheet and I will look for at least three goals to be shared out in this one.


Manchester City v Chelsea Pick: The Premier League title might be heading to Manchester City without too much fuss in the weeks ahead, but the other top clubs will be interested spectators as the race for the top four heats up.

I have little doubt that the likes of Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur will be looking for a favour from the runaway League leaders and Manchester City are playing well enough to think they can provide that.

The only concern for Manchester City has to be the fact they have played two games since Chelsea finished up at Old Trafford last Sunday, but Pep Guardiola did get to see his team coast through the second half of their win at the Emirates Stadium on Thursday. That should mean fatigue is not an issue for a team who have won 12 in a row at home in all competitions and their last 13 Premier League games here.

Chelsea could play a part with the performances they have produced against Barcelona and Manchester United, but failing to win games they led is a blow to the confidence. Worse still is losing at Old Trafford last weekend which has put their top four ambitions in a difficult spot especially if Chelsea fail to get something here.

It is hard to see them turning around form which has seen Chelsea lose their last 3 away games in all competitions, even though they led in a couple of those. With the likes of Eden Hazard, Willian and Pedro capable of causing problems for their potentially tired hosts, Chelsea can play a part in this one but ultimately their away form has been a concern and I think Manchester City will win this one.

Defensively Chelsea will have to be a lot better than they have been in recent away games if they are going to avoid the loss, but I do think they can score here too.

The last 3 Chelsea away games have all ended in losses despite scoring though and I will back Manchester City to win a game featuring three or more goals on Sunday.


Crystal Palace v Manchester United Pick: There was evidence of Roy Hodgson's frustration in the 0-1 loss to Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday with the television cameras picking up the former England manager banging his head against his seat after the late goal conceded by his Crystal Palace team.

Injuries have really hurt the Hodgson options and it comes at a time of the season when Crystal Palace have some big games coming thick and fast. Even a full strength Crystal Palace team would be an underdog in those games, but one hit with the long injury list like this one will really have a hard time.

One thing Hodgson will insist upon is hard work and defensive discipline and that almost worked in their narrow defeat to Tottenham Hotspur. He will be looking to frustrate a Manchester United team who have lost back to back away Premier League games at Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United without scoring, while goals have generally been something of an issue for Jose Mourinho's men having failed to score in 3 of their last 4 away games in all competitions.

However Manchester United should come into this Monday night kick off with some confidence after coming from behind to beat Chelsea last Sunday. Going behind and winning games is not something that has been that common for Manchester United in recent years, but doing so will have given the players a boost ahead of another big month.

This is a tough test to back that up with Crystal Palace being a tough team to play at Selhurst Park, even with the injuries in the squad. The absence of Wilfried Zaha is a huge blow for Crystal Palace and games without him have seen the team struggle to pose a consistent goal threat.

That may be a problem on Monday evening too and I think Manchester United will be able to create the chances that Tottenham Hotspur did here. A better day from Harry Kane would have led to a comfortable win for Tottenham Hotspur last Sunday with the big opportunities that came his way, and I think Manchester United will be able to find a goal or two here.

Ultimately they will look to keep Crystal Palace from building too much without Zaha and potentially Yohan Cabaye. That takes away some real creativity from the Crystal Palace team and Manchester United can win this one with a clean sheet.

MY PICKS: Arsenal-Manchester City Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.37 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Everton Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Leicester City-Bournemouth Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Stoke City + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.94 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Watford-West Brom Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Liverpool-Newcastle United Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Brighton-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City Win & Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Win to Nil @ 2.50 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Tennis Picks 2018 (March 1st)

I looked through the Thursday matches from Dubai and Sao Paulo and could not find an option I was comfortable with, even if I think Malek Jaziri is perhaps a touch under-rated to win his Quarter Final.

That was the closest match I was willing to pull the trigger on, but ultimately the decision was made to wait for the Acapulco Quarter Finals where both the ATP and WTA event taking place was scheduling all eight matches on Thursday.

It will ensure the tournament is concluded very much in time ahead of the first Masters event of the season at Indian Wells which begins in less than a week. The two big tournaments in the United States coming up will conclude the first half of the hard court season before the switch to clay and the build up to the second Grand Slam of the season at Roland Garros will begin.


Feliciano Lopez v Jared Donaldson: The layers are having a hard time pricing up this Quarter Final and it is the veteran Spaniard Feliciano Lopez who goes into it as the narrow underdog against Jared Donaldson.

Both men have played well to get through to the Quarter Final, but I think Donaldson's win over Matthew Ebden and the fashion in which it came has influenced the prices too far in one direction.

As impressive as the win was, Donaldson has not played as well as he would have liked when he has been faced up with those higher up the World Rankings. He has particularly suffered when it comes to the return of serve against players Ranked inside the top 50 and that has to be an issue when facing Lopez who has been serving very well so far this week.

Lopez has two better looking wins behind him this week as he has taken advantage of Rafael Nadal's withdrawal from Acapulco. He has been serving at almost his very best level, but has also impressed with the return of serve and I think he can put enough pressure on Donaldson to beat the American.

It could need three sets to separate them and a couple of tie-breakers can't be ruled out, but I will look for the Lopez serve to be the difference maker and help him through to the Semi Final.


Alexander Zverev - 3.5 games v Ryan Harrison: I will be the first to admit that Alexander Zverev was not only fortunate to cover for me on Wednesday, but he is perhaps lucky to take his place in the Quarter Final in Acapulco. He will need to be a lot better if he is going to see off Ryan Harrison in this match, although the American also played the big points just about well enough to get through his own Second Round match.

There has been a lot to like about the way Harrison has played his tennis in 2018, although the allegations made by Donald Young after a recent match between the two in New York have been ugly. The ramifications have yet to be seen, but Harrison has managed to focus on the court having lost his next two matches in the fall out of the incident with Young.

Harrison has been serving at a high standard in 2018 which has helped him produce some solid results but there is no doubt that someone like Zverev should be able to make him work that little bit harder.

While the Zverev return has some room for improvement, I think he can make enough balls and get into the Harrison backhand to have success.

The young German's own serve has been an important weapon for him and I don't think Harrison is as strong on the return which should mean Zverev is under less pressure than he was on Wednesday. There will be moments Harrison is able to produce a couple of solid returns off back to back serves, but ultimately I would imagine Zverev has the majority of chances in this match.

I will back him to cover this number on his way through to the Semi Final.


Kevin Anderson v Hyeon Chung: This should be a fascinating match up between the big server and the quality returner when Kevin Anderson and Hyeon Chung meet in the Quarter Final in Acapulco.

The return has been the spark for Chung in 2018 as he made his breakthrough at the Australian Open and it has continued to be very important to a player who is tipped to win Grand Slam titles in the years ahead.

However he will have to get a read on the huge serve that Anderson has at his disposal and the big South African has been in fine form himself in 2018. The exception was a disappointing Australian Open for the US Open Finalist, but he has reached the Final of Pune and Anderson is on a six match winning run having taken the title in New York.

Anderson has also been returning well enough to believe he can get after Chung's serve, which is still a little erratic, and I think he will have enough to get past the youngster who had a long week in Delray Beach a few days ago.

Chung has been in fine form this week so has to be respected, but I like Anderson to find a way to get past him for the win and a place in the Semi Final. The serve may just produce enough cheap points to win the match with key points won behind that weapon for Anderson to get through.


Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 games v Kristina Mladenovic: The head to head is hugely in favour of Lesia Tsurenko but I was still surprised the layers have made the lower Ranked player the favourite in this Quarter Final.

They've got it right in my opinion and I do think Tsurenko is going to be able to see of Kristina Mladenovic who is due a significant drop down the World Rankings. That may not happen until after the French Open with huge points to defend from 2017, but Mladenovic has been struggling as a Singles player for some time.

She has won two matches in Acapulco and reached the Final here last season which makes the Frenchwoman dangerous, but that run to the Final ended in a relatively comfortable loss against Tsurenko. Mladenovic was also a little fortunate to come through her Second Round match here and it can't be denied that Tsurenko has looked much stronger so far this week.

The Tsurenko wins have come in the manner that would have been expected and she can be hard to really trust when you think how erratic she can be. However the confidence of having won five of six previous matches against Mladenovic including here in Acapulco last year should also put Tsurenko in a good place.

I think Tsurenko will be able to work her way past Mladenovic in this Quarter Final and I will back her to win and cover the number of games being asked.


Shuai Zhang - 2.5 games v Rebecca Peterson: Any time a player is able to come through the Qualifiers and produce a couple of dominant wins in the main draw they have to be respected for being in very strong form. Rebecca Peterson has yet to drop a set in Acapulco in her four wins and she has dominated the four opponents she has met which makes her a real threat in this Quarter Final.

Beating up both Monica Puig and Alize Cornet are impressive performances from Peterson, but she will have to maintain standards against Shuai Zhang.

Zhang has not been as convincing in her wins as Peterson, but generally she plays at a much higher level than the Swedish player. The erratic nature of Zhang's performances have to be taken on board, but I think she will challenge Peterson more than her last two opponents have been able to do and I like the chances of her winning this one.

These two met a few months ago and it resulted in a comfortable win for Zhang, but I would be surprised if that happens again with Peterson playing the way she is.

However I do think Zhang can get the better of the key moments in this match which should give her every chance of moving into her first Semi Final in 2018 and also cover the number of games being asked of her.

MY PICKS: Feliciano Lopez @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Alexander Zverev - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Kevin Anderson @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lesia Tsurenko - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Shuai Zhang - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 7-10, - 7.10 Units (34 Units Staked, - 20.88% Yield)