World Cup Qualifier Picks (November 10-13)

The World Cup Qualifiers are being played over the next few days which represents the final international break in the domestic football calendar until the end of March. The UEFA section only has one more round of games, but the CONMEBOL Qualifiers will have two rounds of games which I will place in separate threads in the coming days.

This is the fourth round of games in Europe which will start shaping the Groups in those sections where only one team will make it through to the World Cup Finals in Russia while the second place teams head into the Play Offs and have more work to do.

Things will also be much clearer in South America as there looks to be some gaps developing between the top four and the chasing pack. Big results over the next few days may have a couple of the 'big name' nations perhaps feeling the pressure in that section too as we move to within eighteen months of the next World Cup kicking off in Russia.


The last set of picks were disappointing from the last weekend in the Premier League as late goals once again hit me and turned what could have been a slightly positive week into one that turned into another loss. It has hit the season totals now too so the next few days are important to start building the momentum back my way after five weeks with poor performances from myself when trying to pick the winning picks.

I would like to have a little more luck land on my side in the coming weeks to get this month turned back around but making better picks can make my own luck and get this season back on track.


Colombia v Chile Pick: Games in the South American World Cup Qualifiers tend to be fairly entertaining for the most part and I imagine this one between Colombia and Chile will be one that follows that trend. That has plenty to do with Chile whose away World Cup Qualifiers have featured plenty of goals as they have shown an attacking threat but poor defensive foundations in those games.

Colombia can play their part having scored at least twice in 5 of their last 6 home World Cup Qualifiers, while the two clean sheets in that time have come against poor travelling teams like Peru and Venezuela.

Chile might be considered a poor traveller with their record, and their defensive issues could be exposed here having conceded at least three times in 4 of their last 6 World Cup Qualifiers away from home. However, Chile might feel they can give Colombia something to think about with their own attacking threats like Arturo Vidal and Alexis Sanchez and it looks like a game that will see goals.

If Colombia had a better record against Chile I might be tempted to back them, but they look like they will need to score at least twice to win this game and backing three goals to be shared out looks the call.


Uruguay v Ecuador Pick: Uruguay and Ecuador have played some tight games in recent fixtures against one another, but this time home advantage might be a difference maker for Uruguay. They have not won their last 2 home World Cup Qualifiers against Ecuador who have come here and made things very difficult for the home team, but this is a Uruguay team who have found goals easier to come by.

They have been scoring plenty in their recent home World Cup Qualifiers and have to feel good about facing an Ecuador team who have conceded at least twice in each of their last 3 away games.

Uruguay are averaging almost three goals per game at home and have reached that mark in 4 of their 5 home World Cup Qualifiers while they have yet to concede a goal here.

It all makes it very hard to see anything other than a Uruguay win and I think Ecuador might just look to defend deep and look to counter with the hope they can nick a point. That looks a tough task when you think of the goals they have conceded in recent away games and I am backing Uruguay to win this one while covering the Asian Handicap.


Paraguay v Peru Pick: I was tempted in backing Paraguay to beat Peru in this set of World Cup Qualifiers at a price that was bigger than I anticipated when you think of how poor Peru have been away from home in World Cup Qualifiers. However Peru were close to a draw in Chile last time out and had ended a long run for an away win in these Qualifiers when beating Bolivia 0-3 in September.

That has to be respected and makes odds on quotes for Paraguay perhaps not as tempting as it may seem.

Paraguay have played well at home but they have only won 2 of their last 7 home World Cup Qualifiers, although they had scored twice in 3 consecutive games here before the 0-1 loss to Colombia last month.

This looks like it will be a tight match with Peru finding a way to score in their last couple of away games in the Qualifiers and being the sole team to head to Uruguay and lose by less than two goals. Paraguay might have won 3 in a row against Peru at home, but all have come by a single goal margin and they have not recorded a win by more than a single goal margin against Peru in sixteen years.

I do think being at home gives Paraguay enough of an edge to win this one, but I am going to have a small interest on them to do that by exactly one goal at a big price.


Brazil v Argentina Pick: There really isn't a lot between Brazil and Argentina and the tension in these games might be ramped up with the position Argentina find themselves in the Group.

Argentina simply cannot afford to lose here, but Brazil will be inspired by their home support to try and kick their rivals while they are down. The momentum is with Brazil who have won 4 straight World Cup Qualifiers although they haven't faced too many teams of the quality of Argentina in that run.

However, something isn't right with Argentina at the moment as only three nations have scored fewer goals than this team. With the quality in attacking areas Argentina have, that is hard to believe, and I think it might be a difference maker in a tight game.

Brazil have been scoring goals and have scored at least twice in every game they have played at home in the World Cup Qualifiers. That includes when they hosted the likes of Uruguay and Colombia and Brazil will be a big favourite to win this game if they can reach two goals in this one.

It is a tempting price to back Brazil when you see the momentum they have and being at home and backing them to inflict Argentina's first away defeat in this World Cup Qualifying Group at odds against looks a big price. Argentina have conceded twice in Venezuela and Peru recently and it will be much tougher to recover that kind of position against Brazil so I will back the home team to come away with a big three points to leave Argentina in a precarious position in the Group.


England v Scotland Pick: This might be played on an international level, but England versus Scotland could easily develop into a 'Premier League' style fixture between teams who spend time and the top and bottom of that section. That means Scotland have a chance for the upset, but it would be a fairly big upset if they were to leave Wembley Stadium with a win.

England have home advantage and the better quality of players but that alone isn't always enough to make the difference. That gives England a considerable edge in this match, but the other big factor might be Gordon Strachan's position as manager of Scotland which looks on the brink of ending.

I am not sure the players are buying everything Strachan is doing to improve Scotland and the 3-0 capitulation at Slovakia has to be a big concern just last month. However the players will know exactly what this means to Scotland and so I expect a much better and fuller effort given than the one they produced in Slovakia in October.

While that result is having some influence on the markets, Scotland can't be underestimated having earned draws in Poland and the Republic of Ireland in the last set of Qualifiers and only narrowly losing in Germany. They also won in Croatia in the last set of World Cup Qualifiers and scored in all of those games so Scotland can come down south and cause some problems.

England have only conceded twice in their last 10 home Qualifiers, but the two friendly games between these teams in 2013 and 2014 has shown the kind of game this could develop into. With Scotland conceding twice in Germany and Poland and three times in France and Slovakia there is every chance England can cover the goals market on their own, but I also think a Scotland team that have scored in some away Qualifiers can play their part.

Odds against quotes for at least three goals to be scored in this one looks a little too big for me and I will back that to happen on Friday night.


France v Sweden Pick: This is a big game for Sweden if they have genuine ambitions to win this Group and earn an automatic spot at the next World Cup. In a tough Group which contains France and the Netherlands, home results are going to be important so Sweden may feel they have dropped 2 points already in the 1-1 draw with Holland.

That might mean they feel they can't really afford a loss here but it is a big test for them to head to France and come away with a positive result. France have been scoring plenty of goals at home and their 0-1 win in Amsterdam last month will have boosted the confidence in a squad that is loaded with talent.

This is the second home game they have played since losing the Euro 2016 Final to Portugal and France crushed Bulgaria 4-1 in their first Qualifier at home. Those goals means France have scored at least twice in 13 of their last 15 games and it might be difficult for this Sweden team to stay with them.

I do think a lack of goals is a concern for Sweden going forward and did consider backing France to win to nil considering how difficult the Swedes can make life when they defend in numbers. However instead I am backing France to become the first team in over twelve months to beat Sweden by a couple of goals as I can see France breaking them down and pulling away.

Sweden potentially could play their part, but pushing forward might open things up for France on the counter and I will back them to win by two goals or more on Friday in this last Qualifier until 2017.


Malta v Slovenia Pick: There aren't any easy games in international football and I am going to buy into that cliche with this pick because I think Malta can keep things very competitive with Slovenia when they host them in their latest World Cup Qualifier.

I know Malta were crushed by Scotland in their first home Qualifier in this Group, but they've looked more competitive in narrow losses in England and Lithuania. That loss to Scotland was also in a game that was very close before Malta were reduced to ten men and their opponents were able to kick on and win that game with a level of comfort.

Before that defeat to Scotland only 3 of 10 home World Cup Qualifiers had seen Malta lose by two or more goals. That includes a narrow 0-1 losses to Italy and Croatia and they can make life tough for Slovenia who have had to battle hard for wins at San Marino, Faroe Islands and Estonia in recent years and who could only force a 2-2 draw in Lithuania earlier in this Group.

This Asian Handicap needs Malta to lose by three goals or more to come back as a losing pick, while half the stake will be returned if they lose by two goals. However a one goal loss or earning a result will offer a full payout and I do think Malta are capable of keeping this close against a team who have only scored three times in 1 of their last 18 away Qualifiers.

Backing Malta in an international game is perhaps not for everyone, but I will take them on the Asian Handicap in this Qualifier.


Ukraine v Finland Pick: The winner and runner up in this Group is likely going to be the team that can perform best at home and also not drop too many points against the likes of Finland and Kosovo. Ukraine have managed to beat Kosovo here already and need to back that up against a Finland team that have yet to win a game in the Group and who have been beaten by Iceland and Croatia in the section.

The top two teams play one another this week and Ukraine have to look to take advantage by closing the 2 points to those teams with a victory in their own game. They have managed to win their home Qualifiers against the teams they have been expected to beat and even the draw with Iceland might not be a fatal blow for Ukraine.

This is a team that have scored goals at home and Finland are going to be tested. I do have to respect the fact that Finland can make life difficult and were leading 1-2 at Iceland before conceding two injury time goals to lose that game. Finland have tended to find a way to avoid heavy defeats away from home in these Qualifiers and only 1 of their last 10 away Qualifiers has seen the side defeated by more than a single goal margin.

However I think the Ukraine can become another team to do that with their team scoring goals and likely to have plenty of the pressure in and around the Finland goal. It will be tight, but I can see Ukraine finishing off the Finnish late in the game and securing a killer goal on the counter attack which can help them win and cover the Asian Handicap on Saturday.


Wales v Serbia Pick: When these nations met in the 2014 World Cup Qualifiers it was Serbia who were considered the stronger team and more likely to reach the World Cup Finals. They proved that on that occasion with two heavy wins over Wales, but this time around it is Wales who are considered the more likely team that will play in the next World Cup Finals.

This is a big game for both teams though and the winner is going to feel much better going into the next few months with a strong looking position in the Group. For Wales it is almost a must not lose game having dropped home points against Georgia and a defeat here would mean being 5 points behind Serbia despite playing 3 of their 4 games at home.

Both Aaron Ramsey and Gareth Bale are available for Wales for this game and Chris Coleman will hope they can show more in the final third when Serbia defend in numbers. The counter attacking threat is still there if Wales are away from home or if they are leading, but Serbia won't commit too much going forward in this one as they force Wales to try and break them down.

That should lead to space for the visitors on the counter attack, although Serbia have conceded four goals in two games against the Republic of Ireland and Austria already in the Group. On the other hand they have shown they can score goals with 8 scored in the Qualifiers in their opening three games and I think they definitely bring a threat to Wales.

Wales have to show more going forward too and this has the makings of a entertaining game where goals might not be an issue. It should be noted that Wales' home games in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers were generally very tight, but this feels like one where both teams can score and the need for the home team might make it a more open game than some imagine.

The big price might have something to do with how the Wales home Qualifiers went in the Euro 2016 Qualifying Group, but that is a tempting price in a game that could easily end 2-1 to either team.


Austria v Republic of Ireland Pick: A wide open Group might find some separation in the coming days especially if the Republic of Ireland can head back from Austria with three points in the bag. If both Ireland and Serbia can win their World Cup Qualifiers on Saturday then this Group really will begin to feel it could be a two horse race for top spot even though we are yet to reach the halfway point of the section.

Things are likely to be tighter than that over the next twelve months as these nations fight it out for places in Russia and this is the kind of game that Martin O'Neill and Roy Keane would happily take a point from. That would mean they have visited both Serbia and Austria and remained unbeaten which would be huge for the Republic of Ireland.

After Austria lost in Serbia to follow up a 2-2 home draw with Wales, one of the disappointing dark horses in Euro 2016 have been put in a difficult spot in the Group. The pressure is on to get on the front foot and win this game, but defensively they do look like a team that will concede goals.

You can understand why the layers have suggested it will be a tight game when you think of how Austria home Qualifiers and Republic of Ireland away Qualifiers developed in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers. However this feels a game where both nations will have their chances to score goals and I think that potentially makes it a more exciting game than they imagine.

There is much on the line for both teams heading into this game and that might make the managers a little nervous and cautious. The problem is that both don't look solid enough defensively to sit back and I do think both will score in this one.

With the onus on Austria to attack and try and win this game, I think there might be opportunities for both teams in the final third and the price looks a touch big for goals in this fixture. A high-scoring draw, like their respective games against Wales and in Serbia, can not be ruled out, but 2-1 either way wouldn't surprise either and backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against looks the call.


Switzerland v Faroe Islands Pick: Anything other than a Switzerland win would not only be a huge surprise in this World Cup Qualifier, but it might erase the positives for the home team when they beat Portugal to open the Group. That 2-0 win gives Switzerland a big chance to win this Group and move through to the World Cup Finals in Russia, but they can't afford to slip up in games like this.

I can't see that happening despite the Faroe Islands looking much improved in recent years and definitely not the pushovers they perhaps used to be. They don't lose too many games heavily these days but goals remain a problem for them and that is the angle I am playing here.

Faroe Islands have failed to score in 7 of their last 11 away Qualifiers and the goals have come against the likes of Greece, Hungary, Kazakhstan and Latvia. The goal in Hungary came in the last minute of that game and scoring in Switzerland will be tough for them.

10 of the last 11 home Switzerland wins in the Qualifiers have come with a clean sheet and the goals they have conceded have generally come against the better nations in European football. The layers are perhaps offering enough of a price to back Switzerland to win with a clean sheet in this one and I will back that to happen.


Belgium v Estonia Pick: The last time Belgium and Estonia played in the Qualifiers came eight years ago and suffice to say that Belgium are much improved since winning that home game 3-2.

This current Belgium squad look to be one filled with goals and they have shown that by averaging more than four goals per game in their opening three World Cup Qualifiers. The crushing of Bosnia and Herzegovina at home shows what Belgium are capable of in a weak section and Roberto Martinez will not shackle the attacking intentions of this side even if they are in a commanding lead.

That has to be a worry for Estonia who have conceded 7 at Portugal and 5 at Bosnia and Herzegovina in their last two away games. They have also lost 8 of their last 9 away Qualifiers and I can only see a fairly comfortable home win for Belgium in this one.

It is a big number that Belgium are being asked to cover, but they have scored at least three times in their last 4 home Qualifiers and I think their attacking threat will show up here. I do think Belgium will likely win this one by at least three goals and I will back them to win by that margin or more.

MY PICKS: Colombia-Chile Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Uruguay - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paraguay to Win by One Goal @ 3.50 William Hill (1 Unit)
Brazil @ 2.10 William Hill (2 Units)
England-Scotland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
France - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Malta + 1.75 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ukraine - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Stan James (2 Units)
Wales-Serbia Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.38 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Austria-Republic of Ireland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Switzerland Win to Nil @ 1.67 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Belgium - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.77 Bet Victor (2 Units)

November Update: 7-14, - 14.56 Units (42 Units Staked, - 34.67% Yield)

October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 102-107-5, + 4.94 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.25% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NBA November Picks 2016 (November 7-13)

I decided to take a few days off from the NBA Picks as I had been hit with a poor run where the teams I had picked had decided to find special ways not to cover. The Cleveland Cavaliers had been up by almost twenty points before allowing the Boston Celtics back into things last Thursday and I decided that would be the last pick from the first week of November with little luck landing on my side and in a long season there will be moments like that.

You can't get too disheartened when those moments are hit, but I do want to limit the damage at that point and this is a new week now in which I am looking to put a winning record together. There are going to be plenty of chances to do that with this thread beginning on Monday and covering games up until next Sunday, but finding those right spots is the key.

I've had some issues with that early in the season, which has led to picking against teams who've been able to be competitive in those situations but only to then play poorly in their next game. I'm not going to beat myself up too much for results in a two week stretch of a nine month season though even if I am expecting much more positive results this week.


Monday 7th November
The NBA season always seems to be play second fiddle to the NFL and College Football seasons at this stage with the majority not really paying for attention to the NBA until the Super Bowl is in the books. Players have also been accused of not really putting in their best until after the All Star Game, but I don't think anyone needs to be peaking in November when the Play Offs don't begin until next April so it isn't a surprising situation.

We have seen the Golden State Warriors struggle to find their consistency as they integrate Kevin Durant into the five man starting team, while this early point of the season has shown off some surprise teams at the top and bottom of the NBA.

Things will settle into shape in the coming weeks and months and so watch out for some erratic results at this stage of the season.

Indiana Pacers @ Charlotte Hornets Pick: It is early in the season but both the Charlotte Hornets and Indiana Pacers are expected to be amongst the Eastern Conference Play Off picture and both have made moves to earn a higher Seed than last season. Both ended up narrow First Round losers and it is the Charlotte Hornets who come into this game with the winning record.

The Pacers might have had the same if they were able to take their home form on the road, but that has not been possible so far with some poor Defensive efforts in those road games. That has seen Indiana give up an average of 115 points per game on the road and they have had issues in their new era away from the Frank Vogel time as Head Coach when Defense was the main foundation for the Pacers success.

Strong Defensive foundations have helped the Hornets to their 4-1 record to begin the season although they have been given a hand by the schedule which has seen Charlotte take on some of the weaker teams in the NBA. Their sole loss came to the Boston Celtics at home, but they have been solid Defensively and winning the rebound battle will likely give them an edge in this game.

The Hornets have also produced decent numbers coming off the bench which is another key element to the NBA games and Indiana have had issues when they have brought their starters out. Paul George will likely avoid a suspension for being ejected from the last game when he accidentally kicked the ball into a spectator's face, but I think Charlotte might match up well with the Pacers at this moment and I like them to cover this number.

Charlotte are 7-1-1 against the spread in the last nine against Indiana and I like them to extend that number.


Miami Heat @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: I am not sure where I really stand with the Oklahoma City Thunder as a team considering they have an impressive win over the LA Clippers and a blow out loss to the Golden State Warriors under their belt. It does look clear that they will go as far as Russell Westbrook will take them, but perhaps the Thunder have a little more about them than the losses of Kevin Durant and Serge Ibaka might have suggested.

They are facing another team that have been in the Championship mix in recent years, but one that is most definitely in a transitional period. It is only three years since the Miami Heat would have been able to roll out Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and LeBron James here, but all three players are no longer active for them with two moved on.

It won't surprise anyone that the Heat have had some mixed results to open the season, but the concern in recent games has to be losing the rebounding battle. Hassan Whiteside can't do it all himself and is going to have a big match up with Steven Adams which decide so much about this game, and it does look like the Thunder are comfortable enough running their Offense through Russell Westbrook compared with Miami who are a little inconsistent.

The key to this game could be Oklahoma City's Defense against the three point shot and their ability to win the rebound battle. They've also managed to get something from the bench play and I think the Thunder are going to be too good for the Heat who could easily be looking ahead to the return of Dwyane Wade with the Chicago Bulls which is next up on deck.

The Thunder have covered as the favourite in three of the last four against Miami and I will back them to win this one by at least six points.


Tuesday 8th November
Monday was a good start to the week with the two picks coming in as winners, but I've had that start in a week already this season but only to have a few issues keeping that momentum together. Avoiding those pitfalls will be key in the coming days to get this month turned back around after a poor opening week.

Atlanta Hawks @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: For all the years that LeBron James has been part of some of the best teams in the NBA, this is the first time his team have ever begun a season 6-0. The schedule suggests that this run can continue for some time to come and the Cavaliers will be favoured to make it through the rest of the month unbeaten, although they are likely to be resting James at some points with the real key keeping him fresh for the Play Offs.

They are facing one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference on Tuesday when the Atlanta Hawks visit, although I am not sure exactly how good the Hawks are going to be. The Hawks are transitioning from the likes of Al Horford and Jeff Teague and Atlanta do come into this one with a winning record.

There have been a couple of surprising slips for the Hawks, but they dominated the Houston Rockets in a back to back last time out. Dwight Howard has fitted in with his home town team, and his presence is going to be important for Atlanta to try and challenge the Cleveland Cavaliers who have been solid when it comes to the rebounding.

Defensively Atlanta have been solid this season outside of the horrendous effort against the LA Lakers at home. The Hawks held a strong Houston team to fewer than 100 points in a win over them so they can challenge Cleveland, but the Cavaliers have been able to get going from beyond the arc which could be important for them to try and pull away in this one.

Atlanta should be very motivated having been swept out of the Play Offs by Cleveland last season, but they are 0-5 against the spread in their last five games here. Cleveland have won those games by at least 11 points per game and I like the Cavaliers to cover for the first time in five games.


Denver Nuggets @ Memphis Grizzlies Pick: The Memphis Grizzlies have a solid starting roster, but this is a team that has lacked the depth of previous seasons and one that cannot afford to struggle through injuries. That has been a problem early in this season and Memphis could be without the likes of Tony Allen and Mike Conley in this game.

Both have been dealing with injuries and I am not sure it would make much sense to risk them with a few days off before the Grizzlies are due to take the court again. Chandler Parsons was a big money acquisition during the off season and made his debut for Memphis in their last game, but it will take time coming off a big knee injury for him to find his best.

There just seems to be a bit of inconsistency for the Grizzlies at both ends of the court and the Denver Nuggets have shown they are a feisty group that will perhaps exceed expectations this season. Getting into the Play Offs looks a long shot in a tough Western Conference but the Denver Nuggets have been competitive in all but one game they have played this season and all three wins produced has come as the underdog on the road.

The key for Denver in this game is going to be the way they have managed to dominate the glass in their games so far. Getting second chance opportunities and preventing the same at the other end of the court is huge for the Nuggets and my only concern is that they look past the Grizzlies at the home game against the Golden State Warriors which is scheduled for tomorrow.

It looks like the public are very much behind the Grizzlies in this one, but I like the Nuggets who look the more confident team and I will take the points in this one.


Phoenix Suns @ Portland Trail Blazers Pick: There should be plenty of motivation for the Portland Trail Blazers in this one as they look for a bit of revenge for a last second loss to the Phoenix Suns last week. That defeat came in Overtime, but the Trail Blazers have bounced back with two wins in a row and they will be feeling confident they can beat one of the poorer teams in the NBA.

That might be the case for the Phoenix Suns, but they have been a competitive team so they clearly don't feel they should be labelled as one of the weaker teams in the NBA. The Suns have been blown out a couple of times, but they have also been involved in narrow losses to the Golden State Warriors and Oklahoma City Thunder (9 points combined) against two of the best teams in the Western Conference.

Phoenix might feel they are catching the Portland Trail Blazers at the right time here as this is the first of a back to back set for the Trail Blazers. While they will want to avenge the defeat to the Suns from last week, the Portland Trail Blazers take on the LA Clippers on Wednesday who defeated them at The Rose Garden in their opening game.

A rivalry has developed there and it is easy to see Portland overlooking Phoenix, especially with Damian Lillard a little banged up. Lillard is looking for an MVP kind of season so can't afford to take any nights off, but it is only human to want to save your best for some of the best teams and the Clippers are certainly looking like one of those.

Portland have not quite been at the races Defensively which should give Phoenix a chance to keep this one close and the Suns are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven here. Being able to win the rebounding battle should give Phoenix a chance to stay with an Offensively powerful Portland team and this looks like enough points to keep the Suns competitive.


Wednesday 9th November
On a crazy night when Donald Trump was elected the next President of the United States the picks moved to 4-1 for the week and I am looking to keep the run going. I have slipped to 0-4 in Cleveland Cavaliers games though and that means I won't back either team in their games for the rest of the month as I try and start reading their games better than I have.

It's funny to think Cleveland are 2-5 against the spread as the favourite this season, but they have gone 2-0 when I have backed their opponent... If I didn't think I was reading their games wrong before, I think that kind of sums up that fact!

Minnesota Timberwolves @ Orlando Magic Pick: These two teams might be in the bottom half of the NBA in terms of what kind of quality they have on the roster, but both the Orlando Magic and Minnesota Timberwolves are expecting big improvements this season. They have made some moves to show improvement, but at the moment inconsistent results have been the feature of their early season form.

Orlando have employed Frank Vogel to improve their results and Minnesota employed Tom Thibodeau and both of those Head Coaches have had success previously with the Indiana Pacers and Chicago Bulls respectively. Both are known for their Defensive Coaching but it will take time for their new teams to really understand what the new voices in the locker room are going to want from them.

It is the younger Minnesota roster which is taking a little more time getting to grips with what Thibodeau wants from them and they have only held one team under 100 points so far this season. The Timberwolves have particularly struggled on the road and are playing in a back to back spot which is difficult especially as they heading home after this one.

Orlando can take advantage of that spot and they have played better at home for the most part. The concern has to be that the Magic are 0-2 against the spread as the favourite this season, but they are 5-1 against the spread against Minnesota at home and I do think Orlando are catching them at the right time in this one.


Chicago Bulls @ Atlanta Hawks Pick: The Atlanta Hawks came out fired up and motivated when they visited the Cleveland Cavaliers on Tuesday and they came away with an upset win on a night where Donald Trump had one of the biggest upset wins of the year.

Backing up emotional wins on a back to back is tough, but when you've invested as much as Atlanta have had into that win then it is even more difficult without the rest between games. They will have to bring the same intensity into this game as they take on the Chicago Bulls who have been inconsistent behind their new look roster.

The Bulls have a big game on Thursday night when they visit the Miami Heat for Dwyane Wade's big homecoming, but you have to think they will come out in this one with something to prove. Chicago have had a couple of big wins at home, but the motivation has to be to show they can take that toughness on the road and take on one of the quality teams in the Eastern Conference.

They don't have a good record in Atlanta in recent years, but Chicago can challenge the Hawks on the boards and that will give them a chance in this one. With the Hawks likely to struggle to bring the same intensity to the court as they had in Cleveland I can see the Bulls keeping this one close and taking the points looks to be the play.

The bench could be important for Chicago in this one and I like the Bulls here.


Thursday 10th November
That was not a good day for the picks with both the Orlando Magic and Chicago Bulls letting me down, the Magic in particular going on my blacklist for a couple of weeks at least.

It is still a positive week but I want better from the Thursday picks.

New Orleans Pelicans @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: The New Orleans Pelicans have not started the season 0-9 since moving here, but they look like they are about to break that record having gone 0-8. They have a huge superstart in Anthony Davis, but injuries to starters and a limited bench has meant the Pelicans have struggled despite the numbers Davis has been putting up.

They have already been beaten once by the Milwaukee Bucks this season and now travel to the Bradley Center before returning home at the end of this three game road trip. One of the problems for the Pelicans has been the struggles on the Defensive side of the ball which has prevented them making the stops when they have needed them most and they will be challenged on that side of the court.

This is a Milwaukee team which has averaged 112 points per game in their four home games and they have won three in a row. The Bucks are looking to bounce back from a defeat on the road at Dallas which saw them struggle Offensively and snap a three game winning run, but I expect they can do that against a Pelicans team who have allowed at least 102 points in each of their last three games.

Despite the presence of Davis, I expect Milwaukee to win the rebounding battle and also make a few more shots from the three point arc. The Bucks should have an edge from the bench too and I like them to win this one by at least five points.


Golden State Warriors @ Denver Nuggets Pick: They are not going to reach the record for NBA wins in a single season as some suggested when the Golden State Warriors brought in Kevin Durant, but there are signs this team is finding its groove. Both Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson perhaps needed some time to work Durant into the rotation, but both the Splash Brothers have been knocking down the Field Goals for fun in the last couple of games.

That has helped the Golden State Warriors beat New Orleans and Dallas fairly comfortably, but this might be a bigger test as they head on the road to take on the competitive Denver Nuggets.

The Nuggets are coming off a five game road trip which means they are playing on their second home game of the season. They might have lost three of those games, but Denver could easily have gone 4-1 with a little more clutch performers down the stretch although only a couple of the teams they faced would be considered in the top ten of the NBA.

It is a challenge for Denver to take on Golden State, but they did beat them in their last game against each other in January. However this is a Warriors team that is hot from the three point line as they have hit at almost 40% over their last five games which gives them the ability to pull away from opponents.

Denver will likely win the rebounding battle which will give them a chance, but I am not sure they have the shooting to stay with Golden State and are coming off a highly emotional loss to the Memphis Grizzlies. I imagine this will be tight for a while but I can see Curry, who should be healthy enough to play after hurting an ankle on Wednesday, Thompson and Kevin Durant making some big second half shots to win this one by around ten points.


LA Lakers @ Sacramento Kings Pick: The LA Lakers were expected to face another transitional season in the shadow of the LA Clippers, but the hiring of Luke Walton as Head Coach looked a great acquisition for them. Walton made his name with the Golden State Warriors as an Assistant, but also led the Warriors to an incredible start last season when Steve Kerr was away from the team and had a number of suitors before going back to the LA Lakers.

It was still expected to be a season where he needed time to get his young players understanding what Walton expects from them, but the Lakers have responded with a surprising 4-4 start. The win at the Atlanta Hawks looks incredibly good at this moment considering how Atlanta have opened the season, but there will be inconsistencies as shown in their home loss to the Dallas Mavericks which snapped the Lakers three game winning run.

This is a big test for the Lakers as they head to the Sacramento Kings who have won their last two home games and have begun to show the effort on the Defensive side of the court which has been demanded of them. They have held their last two opponents to 94 points or fewer having had six games in a row where they had given up triple digits and DeMarcus Cousins knows the importance of continuing to show strong effort Defensively.

The Lakers have the edge when it comes to the bench play and have rebounded well to open the season but playing on the road is much more difficult. The Sacramento Kings have been better at home and I do think the return of Darren Collison has given them an Offensive boost outside of Cousins.

The Kings have won seven in a row in the series and they are 5-1-1 against the spread in those games. I respect what Walton has got out of the Lakers so far this season, but I like the Kings to make enough big Defensive plays to win this one by between eight and ten points and I will back them to cover this number.


Friday 11th November
There are a number of games scheduled for Friday and I got down to a shortlist of four teams but couldn't really pull the trigger on any of those with any confidence. I will hopefully have something for Saturday but I will avoid making any picks I am not confident about on Friday.


Saturday 12th November
So how did the Friday shortlist go? Not very well actually with those going 2-2, but I am glad I held off without feeling the confidence behind those picks and prevented this week turning incredibly sour.

There are plenty more games to be played on Saturday and this time I do have two picks from the games that are scheduled to be played.

LA Lakers @ New Orleans Pelicans Pick: The LA Lakers continue to play with the heart and determination which is helping them exceed all expectations. It was expected to be a season where Luke Walton introduces his ideas to a young roster, but the players have bought into what Walton wants and that has seen them produce a 5-4 record to open the season.

There are still some doubts about the Lakers as evidenced by the fact they head to the 1-8 New Orleans Pelicans as the underdog on Saturday. I am not sure that is fair in this case even if the Pelicans are off their first win of the season and the way the Lakers have been going about their business even when in deep holes suggests their belief will still be in a better place than the Pelicans.

It is also harder to trust the New Orleans Pelicans' role players to keep making the plays they have in the win over Milwaukee. They are struggling Defensively and the Lakers have been big on the boards which should give them a chance to earn the win on the road.

The Lakers have made enough Defensive stops to think they can do the same to New Orleans and they have just dealt with DeMarcus Cousins in preparation for Anthony Davis. That should mean they have the right plans in place and I like the Lakers with the point.


Boston Celtics @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The Indiana Pacers cannot escape the Jekyll and Hyde personality at home and on the road and that continues to be the case for them. After narrowly beating the Philadelphia 76ers at home in Overtime, the Pacers lost to the previously winless team on the road on Friday.

Now they have to host one of the better teams in the Eastern Conference on Saturday as the Boston Celtics arrive off the back of a blow out home win over the New York Knicks. Al Horford potentially returns for the Celtics in this one too to give them a boost and I do like Boston as the underdog on Saturday.

Boston have lost three of their four road games this season and against some of the best teams in the East which is a concern. However they have covered in both games against a team with a winning record and Indiana have not really hosted any of the top teams so this is a completely different level of test for them.

The Celtics have yet to cover as the small underdog, but I do think they can win this one outright against an Indiana team still finding its feet. They have won their four home games, but the Pacers haven't hosted teams of this quality too often just yet and I will take the points with another underdog on Saturday.


Sunday 13th November
Yes I was aided by the absence of Paul George for the Indiana Pacers, but I have had some tough setbacks too this past week so two winners from two is a positive to take into the final day of this thread. I have only one pick from the Sunday offering which means the week will end with a positive result regardless, but I would love to add a winner and get this month close to back into a positive position.

LA Lakers @ Minnesota Timberwolves Pick: The LA Lakers didn't just cover as the underdog yesterday but they blew out the New Orleans Pelicans and now head to the Minnesota Timberwolves on this back to back. The Timberwolves weren't resting on Saturday as they were beaten at home by the other team from Los Angeles and I will absolutely admit that I am surprised the home team are being asked to cover as many points as they are.

The Lakers have been a surprise team to open 2016, but that doesn't mean they should be given this many points when you think Minnesota have lost four of their last five games. Winning the battle on the boards continues to drive the Lakers forward but they are also getting a huge boost from the bench and that should give them a chance for another upset on the road.

Minnesota are only 1-3 against the spread as the favourite this season while the Lakers are 3-0 against the spread when considered the underdog being given fewer than seven points. You have to admire the fight that the Lakers have shown and I do think they are not being respected in this one.

The underdog is 4-1 against the spread in the last five in this series and I am taking the points with the road Lakers in this one.

MY PICKS: 07/11 Charlotte Hornets - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
07/11 Oklahoma City Thunder - 5 Points @ 1.95 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
08/11 Cleveland Cavaliers - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
08/11 Denver Nuggets + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
08/11 Phoenix Suns + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/11 Orlando Magic - 3 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
09/11 Chicago Bulls + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
10/11 Milwaukee Bucks - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
10/11 Golden State Warriors - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
10/11 Sacramento Kings - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
12/11 LA Lakers + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
12/11 Boston Celtics + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
13/11 LA Lakers + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

November 7-13 Update: 7-6, + 0.49 Units
November 1-6 Final: 2-5, - 3.18 Units

November Update: 2-5, - 3.18 Units
October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

Weekend Football Picks 2016 (November 5-6)

October proved to be a pretty crappy month for the picks and the opening of November hasn't been much better with some poor picks coupled with bad luck not helping my cause. I had a really poor start to the 2015/16 season which I have been hoping to avoid, but I need to start putting the winners on the board.

This is the final week before the international break which is the last one until March. For teams in England it also means the last break before the really busy festive period which is fast approaching, while the remainder of November has some huge matches to be played too.

I am concentrating on the Premier League alone this weekend to try and get the November totals turned back around and I am looking to put some winners on the board although the majority of the matches won't be played until Sunday.


Manchester City v Middlesbrough Pick: I did say I thought Manchester City's defeat to Barcelona in Spain two weeks ago was by a scoreline that flattered the home team, but there was nothing flattering about Manchester City's 3-1 win over them here during the week. That was a deserved result and Manchester City had chances for more goals while coming back from a 0-1 deficit to win that game shows the Champions League Semi Finalists from last season are a threat to win it all this time around.

There is a lot of football to be played before then and Manchester City are going to have to refocus on the Premier League where they have had some mixed results of late. Having a full attacking squad at their call is huge for Pep Guardiola who should be able to pick a starting eleven which should be far too good for Middlesbrough.

The problem for Middlesbrough is that they don't seem to have a lot of goals in the side and Manchester City are unlikely to come out as flat as Arsenal did in a home game against Middlesbrough a couple of weeks ago. Clean sheets have been a problem for Manchester City, but that might not be the case this weekend and they have been stronger at home as long as they can avoid the big mistakes that have allowed the likes of West Ham United, Everton and Southampton to score here.

With the possession that Manchester City are likely to have and Gaston Ramirez being ruled out for Middlesbrough it is hard to see how the away team will score in this one. This Manchester City side don't look like they will go too many games without scoring and I think backing them to win this one with a clean sheet is the call.


Chelsea v Everton Pick: Chelsea have been producing some impressive results since Antonio Conte resorted to his favoured formation and they have been scoring goals for fun in that time. That has impressed the layers who have set Chelsea as a short favourite to beat Everton at home, but I am still not fully convinced about the home team and feel the more managers have seen of them will have them work out the best way to attack them.

Some of the results have been flattering with early goals against Manchester United and Southampton changing the way the game might have developed. Getting in front allows Chelsea to play with the counter attacking they prefer and both Eden Hazard and Diego Costa are in magnificent form which has to be respected.

However they are going up against one of the better managers in the Premier League who should have Everton well organised like they were at Manchester City where they frustrated the home team. Romelu Lukaku would love to get one over on his former team and Everton have matched up well with Chelsea over the last twelve months.

There are new systems in place, but Everton are capable of making life difficult for the home team and better defending at set pieces should give them a chance to get something out of this game. Chelsea have been battering teams, but their clean sheets are something of a mirage with Southampton having a clear goal disallowed and Manchester United very close to breaking through against them too.

Ronald Koeman had a solid record with Southampton against Chelsea and Everton can get something from this game. It would surprise me if Chelsea are able to see them off easily this week despite winning 4 Premier League games in a row by at least two goals each time, and I think an Everton goal might give them a chance for a surprise result here. Backing Everton with a goal start on the Asian Handicap looks a big price.


Arsenal v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: For all the praise that Mauricio Pochettino gets for turning around Tottenham Hotspur and making them one of the better teams in England, he has to take the criticism that comes with the poor recent form. The side looked flat on Wednesday as they moved to the brink of exiting the Champions League and they are missing Harry Kane massively as they are without a goal in open play since the 1-1 draw at West Brom three weeks ago.

This looks a bad time for Tottenham Hotspur to visit The Emirates Stadium where Arsenal are playing with plenty of confidence and scoring plenty of goals. The 2-3 win in Bulgaria will only have bolstered the confidence and Arsenal look ready to snap their recent run of games without a win in this North London derby in the Premier League.

I 'Tweeted' on Wednesday that Tottenham Hotspur might take a battering if they defend as badly as they did on Wednesday against Bayer Leverkusen and I do fear for them. It looks like Toby Alderweireld will be unavailable, or at least not at 100%, while Harry Kane is another major doubt despite returning to training this week.

Both are hugely influential players and Tottenham Hotspur's only real hope is that Huge Lloris plays a worldly game in goal.

With Arsenal flowing with goals, I think they will have too much for their opponents and can win this at an attractive price.


Liverpool v Watford Pick: You have to respect the way Watford have been operating even when they dismiss managers in surprising fashion and yet still continue to move forward in a positive manner. Coming into November above Manchester United in the Premier League table will excite the fans, but recent weeks has seen them picking up points against teams that have been in the bottom half of the table.

Suffice to say that Liverpool are going to offer them a tough examination of their credentials in what is their toughest away test of the Premier League season so far. Watford struggled when they visited the top teams last season and they have played two of the current top four this season but been beaten at home by Chelsea and Arsenal.

Visiting Anfield is a much different test than hosting those big teams and Watford were beaten comfortably here last season. With the goals in the Liverpool side it is going to be very difficult for Watford to achieve much here this week, although there has to be some concerns with the amount of goals Liverpool keep conceding.

The fans might not like to hear it, but I see similarities with this Liverpool team and the one that came close to winning the title under Brendan Rodgers. Both don't have European competition to distract them, both were impressive going forward but both also had some defensive problems that ultimately cost them.

I can't see how Jurgen Klopp's style can be maintained over the course of the season, but for now the players should be fresh and able to keep their pressing going. I expect their attacking players to create chances against Watford who have conceded at least twice at Burnley and West Ham United and I think Liverpool will have a little too much for them this weekend.

The goals being conceded makes it hard to trust Liverpool to win games easily, but they have been 2-0 up in their last couple of home games and only some poor finishing has prevented them winning those games easily. Watford may score here, but Liverpool can win by a couple of goals this weekend to go into the international break with some confidence.


Swansea City v Manchester United Pick: It has been a tough run of games for Manchester United when performances have not been rewarded as much as they perhaps should have been. Those are mainly in games at Old Trafford against Stoke City and Burnley, but Manchester United couldn't point to poor fortunes costing them in Istanbul on Thursday when they were beaten at Fenerbahce.

The Europa League will recommence at the end of the month and Manchester United still have control of their own destiny, but the pressure is on in the Premier League as they try and close the gap to the top four. Two of those sides have very winnable home games this weekend while the other is a favourite in a derby game so the pressure is on Manchester United to win at The Liberty Stadium.

That won't be easy, but Swansea City have not been in great form themselves and have been conceding plenty of goals. Bob Bradley has come in as manager and the positives from the 3-2 loss at Arsenal have been replaced with two poorer performances as Swansea City continue to struggle defensively.

However Bradley has to think he can put together enough of an attacking game plan to challenge a makeshift Manchester United defence that were pulled around in Fenerbahce. The likes of Fernando Llorente and Borja Baston will feel they can finish off chances that Swansea City create in this game.

I am expecting goals at both ends of the field and Manchester United away games have continued to feature goals for the most part. Prior to the goalless draw with Watford, Swansea City had seen 4 straight games at home where three goals had been shared out and that looks the most likely outcome of this one.

7 of the last 8 between Manchester United and Swansea City have gone that way including the last 3 at The Liberty Stadium and I will back goals in this one.


Leicester City v West Brom Pick: It is a real surprise to me that Leicester City have such a poor recent home record against West Brom, but I do feel they can snap that this weekend as Claudio Ranieri looks to improve the Premier League form.

The Champions League has been taken care of for all extents and purposes and one more point sends Leicester City into the Last 16 of that competition. While some have suggested The Foxes are focusing on the Champions League, I simply think Leicester City have come back to their average form while also having a really difficult fixture list to this point.

They have been better at home though and I think being her will make a difference. Leicester City have won 3 of their last 4 games here in all competitions and they are much more comfortable at the King Power Stadium although West Brom are never a team that you can rule out easily.

Tony Pulis will make his team hard to beat and West Brom will look to restrict the space in which Leicester City thrive. Jamie Vardy is out of form and Kasper Schmeichel is out so West Brom might feel they have a chance, especially as Leicester City have been having issues defending set pieces.

However I think Leicester City being at home will work a way to break down this West Brom team who have not been keeping clean sheets and I will back them to win this one.

MY PICKS: Manchester City Win to Nil @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Everton + 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.02 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Liverpool - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Swansea City-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leicester City @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

November Update: 5-10, - 9.78 Units (30 Units Staked, - 32.60% Yield)

October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 102-107-5, + 4.94 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.25% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 5th)

Novak Djokovic was stunned in his Quarter Final match against Marin Cilic who he had never been beaten by on the main Tour and that has opened the door for Andy Murray to become the World Number 1.

Another win for Murray on Saturday will send Murray to the top of the World Rankings on Monday in what would be the final thing to check off in what has been a stunning career. He might never reach the level of the likes of Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer and Djokovic in terms of their historical positions, but Murray has to be given a lot of credit for winning majors and reaching the top of the World Rankings while those players are still around.

Murray has won Grand Slam titles, a number of Masters events, the Davis Cup, two Olympic Gold Medals and potentially reaches the World Number 1 spot on Saturday and I am sure he would have accepted that as a career when he began playing tennis. All credit to him if achieves that, and even if Murray misses out tomorrow you have to think it is only a matter of time before he does hit the top spot in the Rankings.

It is a testament to his consistency that he has will have potentially reached World Number 1 when you consider Novak Djokovic has won two of the four Grand Slam titles in 2016 and Murray won one. Both reached three Finals but Novak Djokovic has not been able to find his form over the last few months which has cost him his place compared with Murray who has been winning titles and plenty of matches.

I find it hard to imagine Murray will be a long-term Number 1 and I don't think he will be going into tournaments as the favourite despite his World Ranking, but no one will ever be able to take this achievement for him. There will be more calls for him to be Knighted from certain sections of the media, but I have never really thought simply being really good in your sport is another reason to be given that honour.

That is a different take on matters though and I just think the concentration should be on Murray's achievements in his career.


On Saturday we get to the Semi Final matches in Paris and at the WTA Elite Trophy. Next week we have no tennis of note before the Fed Cup begins at the end of the week and the World Tour Finals get going on Sunday. I am looking for two more good days for the picks to get this week ending on a strong note before the break of a few days going into the World Tour Finals.


Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: 2016 will always be looked back upon by Shuai Zhang as a memorable season for her and she has the chance to play for the WTA Elite Trophy if she can win this Semi Final. It is hard to think that it hasn't been that long since Zhang was considering her future in the game with results failing to be produced on the court despite the hard work off it.

This season that has paid off and Zhang won't want the 2016 season to come to an end just yet with the home fans fully behind her. However she is going to be facing a huge challenge in the form of Petra Kvitova who has played well in Asian in her career and who has been in dominant form in her two matches this week.

A lot of this match is going to be dictated by the Kvitova racquet as she has the power advantage and should be the stronger player if she can maintain some consistency. Zhang will try to fight fire with fire, but she doesn't get the same amount of cheap points from the serve as Kvitova does when she is serving well and that is an issue for her.

Both players have had some positive results to end the 2016 season, but Kvitova is trying to keep the momentum behind her with Fed Cup duties next week and she has been serving well enough to come through with a 63, 64 win in this Semi Final.


Elina Svitolina + 2.5 games v Johanna Konta: Another player who has had a memorable 2016 season is Johanna Konta and she is looking to end it with another title as she will be heading into the next season as a top ten player in the World Ranking. Any disappointment of missing out on a place in the WTA Finals has been forgotten by Konta who has had two very good wins this week.

Even with that in mind, I do think Elina Svitolina is the toughest player she would have met so far in the WTA Elite Trophy and this is a player who has been ending the season in strong form. The Ukrainian player might not want to go back to the tournament in Moscow due to off court issues, but she has won two matches this week to make the Semi Final as she bids to take the next step in her career in 2017.

The match up looks to be a good one and I can see both Konta and Svitolina having their moments in this one while I am giving Konta the edge when it comes to consistency with her play from the back of the court. However I do think Svitolina can perhaps reach a higher level when she begins to produce some unplayable tennis and that makes it hard to separate these players in this Semi Final.

I actually had this set as a pick 'em Semi Final so I am surprised that Svitolina is being given as many games as she has in this one. That has tempted me in, especially at odds against, and I think Svitolina can push Konta all the way in this one and I wouldn't be surprised if she is able to win this match outright so I will back the Ukrainian with the games.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v John Isner: After fourteen losses in a row, Marin Cilic finally beat Novak Djokovic when they met in the Quarter Final and that might be the win that knocks Djokovic from the top of the World Rankings. Marin Cilic isn't worrying about those matters but simply looking to end 2016 in the kind of form he can use early in 2017 at the Australian Open and he is well on the way to doing that.

He has yet to really recover the kind of form that took him to the US Open title in 2014, but Cilic has looked better the last few weeks and the win over Djokovic should be huge for his confidence. It can be hard to back up such impressive wins, but Cilic has a very strong 6-0 head to head advantage over John Isner and I think the Croatian can find the breaks of serve to win this match.

John Isner just hasn't looked right in the last few weeks of the season with his serve the only thing that is really working with consistency. But even the serve has let him down at times with players able to get that back in play and watch Isner implode behind it and Cilic has the big reach to make sure he gets enough balls back in play in this one.

With a win over Ivo Karlovic already this week, Cilic has recently experienced facing a big serve and he should be the stronger player as long as he plays smart and does not give up his own serve easily. Isner is a limited returner, but Cilic doesn't want to give him too many second serves to look at and preventing that should see him have the edge in this match.

I will be looking for Cilic to try and match the three breaks of serve Jack Sock had against John Isner on Friday and that should be good enough to win this match and cover the number.


Andy Murray - 3.5 games v Milos Raonic: Andy Murray admitted there were some nerves going into his Quarter Final with Tomas Berdych with the Number 1 spot on the line in the next couple of days, but he managed to get himself mentally ready to go. I am sure he will be feeling some nerves again, but Murray has to feel he can nullify the Milos Raonic serve and getting into the rallies will give him a big edge in this match.

There won't be any concern facing Raonic in terms of what to expect- Murray will be well aware that Raonic is going to try and dominate behind a big first serve and a heavy forehand to follow that up, but Murray will look to attack the second serve and also try and get most returns and shots into the backhand wing of the Canadian.

Murray will more than expect to win the majority of those rallies that last more than four or five shots and he has been serving well enough to prevent a limited returner from really getting into the match. Any belief that this is going to be an easy day in the office will be put to the back of the mind by remembering how close Raonic came to beating Murray at the Australian Open, but Murray has won all five matches played between them and that should give him the mental edge.

This has been a good week for Raonic, but he hadn't been in the kind of form Murray has brought into the tournament and I think the latter is going to be too good for him on the day. A couple of breaks of serve might be enough for Murray to come through with a 64, 64 win and I like the British player to become the World Number 1 on Saturday.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Elina Svitolina + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 16-10, + 10.76 Units (52 Units Staked, + 20.69% Yield)