College Football Week 10 Picks 2016 (November 5th)

Last week was a really poor one for my picks from the College Football Week 9 and I was a little frustrated with the way things went down. Teams losing when they win the battle in terms of yardage will do that, while I had a couple of backdoor covers go against me which didn't help the mood.

These things happen, but I do want to turn around that form in Week 10 having made my shortlist and eventually finished with the teams I have picked below.

The first Play Off bracket of the season was released this past week too and it wasn't a surprise that two SEC teams had been picked in the top four. The Alabama Crimson Tide are unlikely to be knocked out of those spots, but I find it hard to imagine the Texas A&M Aggies are able to keep hold of their position.

The Big 12 Conference effectively killed itself by losing both unbeaten teams in Week 9, but the Washington Huskies shouldn't panic as an unbeaten season and winning the Pac-12 Championship Game will surely be enough to move them up. It is Clemson and Michigan who hold the the middle two positions of the four teams and both would likely be comfortable Play Off teams if they can win their respective Conferences with unbeaten records.

The Tigers look in a position to do that having won at Florida State in a tight one in Week 9 and previously knocked off the Louisville Cardinals, but the Michigan road still has one huge test in the Ohio State Buckeyes to come. There are plenty of twists and turns to come before those Play Off Rankings are confirmed for the Bowl Games at the end of the year, so teams should be concentrating on each game as they come and try and earn some style points for those who are just outside the top four positions.

In my opinion any team that wins a Conference Championship Game and remains unbeaten will be in, especially from the Power 5 Conferences, so Alabama, Michigan, Clemson and Washington are in complete control of their own destinies.


Navy Midshipmen v Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: The Navy Midshipmen are in a position to play in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game but this week they are in non-Conference action. The Notre Dame Fighting Irish are simply trying to earn a Bowl bid in what has been an underachieving year and they need three wins from their final four games to be in a position to do that.

Failing to make a Bowl would be a real blow for Brian Kelly and his team that were expected to perhaps even challenge for a Play Off spot. The schedule is always going to be difficult as an Independent, but a 3-5 record would not have been expected at all going into Week 10, but they still have four winnable games on slate to make sure they are playing in December.

The Fighting Irish have dominated the head to head between these teams with five straight wins in the series and their win over the Miami Hurricanes last week when they barely held on might give them some confidence. The opponent this week marks a chance for Notre Dame to record back to back wins for the first time in the 2016 season, but they have to find a way to slow the triple option.

To that end the Notre Dame Defensive Line have played well and they should have some success limiting the damage Navy are able to do on the ground. When you face a team like Navy, limiting the ground attack is about the best you can hope to do and then force them into unfamiliar systems where they need to throw the ball although Will Worth showed last week that he is capable of doing that.

Unfortunately for Worth, he is not facing the UCF Knights this week but a Notre Dame Secondary who have show improvement as the year has gone on and who played relatively well against Brad Kaaya last week. The Navy passing Offense has been inconsistent and you would think the Fighting Irish can make some big stops at key moments to give themselves a chance of the win and of the cover.

One of the issues the Fighting Irish have had this season is DeShone Kizer at Quarter Back who has perhaps not looked after the ball in the manner they would have liked. He didn't throw a pick last week though and Kizer can build on that against a Navy Secondary that has allowed over 300 passing yards per game in their last three games.

The key to the whole outcome of this game could be getting Josh Adams established running the ball as that has been an issue for Notre Dame all season. The Navy Defensive Line has allowed some big gaps as they have perhaps focused on stopping teams throwing all over them and that will be important for Notre Dame to slow down the pass rush and keep Kizer in a position to make plays without forcing it from third and long.

I do think Notre Dame can move the ball effectively in this one, while the spot might not be a good one for Navy. No one overlooks a storied team like the Fighting Irish, but there is no doubt that Navy's game against Tulsa next week is far more important when it comes to who will be representing the American Athletic West Division in the Championship Game with Navy at 4-1 in the Division and Tulsa at 3-1.

Schools like Navy are very disciplined which means I don't expect too many mistakes, but they are also human and there is no doubt next week is the bigger game. Notre Dame certainly look the team who can move the ball with more consistency and I think they can win this one by a Touchdown at least with four of their last five wins over Navy coming by ten points or more.


Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: The North Carolina Tar Heels have real ambitions of playing in the ACC Championship Game but they need help having lost the tiebreaker to the Virginia Tech Hokies. The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets might be 2-3 in the Conference, but they play both the leaders of the Coastal Division and they are still searching for one more win to make them Bowl eligible for the season.

Both teams have put some solid wins on the board but the North Carolina Tar Heels definitely have the 'better' wins behind them. That won't mean anything in Week 10 when they come up against the triple option being run by Georgia Tech which should give the Yellow Jackets chances to make plays.

The Tar Heels do face the option every season being in the same Division as the Yellow Jackets so they should be familiar with what they are going to see. The Defensive unit have picked up their play in recent games as the Tar Heels look to keep up with the Virginia Tech Hokies and that has made life a little more comfortable for Mitch Trubisky at Quarter Back who is getting some admiring glances from NFL scouts to the point that he could easily be a First Round Draft Pick.

The Defensive unit has held teams to 13.5 points per game in their last two games since the loss to the Hokies and it is the Defensive Line which has picked up their play to hold teams to 3.1 yards per carry. That will be tested by Justin Thomas and the Yellow Jackets who are coming in off a huge day Offensively against the Duke Blue Devils and who have scored at least 34 points in their last three games.

With an Offense like the one Georgia Tech will run, Thomas will get his numbers, but it won't be as easy as it seemed to be against the Blue Devils. The North Carolina Secondary have given up less than 150 passing yards per game in their last three games despite facing Virginia Tech and Miami and they can at least slow down the Yellow Jackets and give the Offense a chance to score enough points to win this game,

Trubisky is the star of the Tar Heels Offense, but it might be Elijah Hood who has the big day statistically as he should find some running lanes against this Defensive Line. The Yellow Jackets have allowed almost 5 yards per carry in their last three games and Hood is coming off a solid performance and can keep the team in manageable down and distance.

Georgia Tech have been able to generate limited pressure on the Quarter Back anyway, so running the ball effectively should mean Trubisky has time to make plays against this Secondary. It should also mean North Carolina can get back to some of the higher scoring they produced earlier in the season as they face a team allowing 35 points or more in three of their last four games.

This is a big number when you think the Yellow Jackets might be able to control the time of possession and keep the clock rolling. However I think North Carolina are playing well enough Defensively to make some big plays which gives the ball back to their Offense who should have a solid outing.

North Carolina are off a bye so should have had the time to prepare for the triple option and I am backing them to come out with a win by two Touchdowns and keep the pressure on the Hokies in the Division.


Oregon State Beavers @ Stanford Cardinal Pick: For a team that has won at least eleven games in four of the five years under Head Coach David Shaw, this has to be seen as a really disappointing season for the Stanford Cardinal. There won't be any pressure on Shaw to lose his job, but Stanford are only 3-3 in the Conference and even winning every game for the remainder of the season would see Stanford get up to ten wins.

Now for most schools a double digit win season would be seen as a big success, but Stanford have raised expectations in recent seasons and would have been looking to try and earn a spot in the Play Offs. Instead they can become Bowl eligible this week with a victory over the Oregon State Beavers who have a chance to surpass last season's two wins in Gary Andersen's second year as Head Coach.

The Beavers can certainly test the Stanford Defensive Line which has not been as stout as in recent years, especially with Ryan Nall back after injury. He has helped the Beavers average 5.5 yards per carry and Andersen is a run first Head Coach which should see Oregon State in favourable down and distance in this game.

You have to think that most teams know this is the way Oregon State want to get their Offense going, so I expect Stanford will look to load the line of scrimmage and force the Beavers to try and beat them through the air. That has been more difficult even if Nall is a decent pass catcher out of the backfield, and Marcus McMaryion is going to have a real test on his hands against this Secondary which has allowed 135 passing yards per game in their last three as they have looked to clamp down on Offenses.

The Cardinal generate a fierce pass rush too so McMaryion will need the Beavers to run the ball effectively or find himself in some trouble when it comes to obvious passing situations.

Stanford themselves will be focused in getting the ball to Christian McCaffrey as much as possible after the banged up Running Back looked healthier than he has in weeks last time out. He is the key to the entire Stanford Offense as he is capable running the ball as well as lining up in Receiving positions and making plays there.

It will be his running skills that are on show on Saturday against an Oregon State Defensive Line which has allowed 5.2 yards per carry on the season. Being able to run the ball is all important for Stanford who have had inconsistent performances from the Quarter Back position with Keller Chryst expected to have his second start in a row this week.

The Cardinal have only thrown for 135 yards per game in their last three games as they have looked for the Defensive unit to keep them in games. Stanford have allowed 30 points in their last three games combined, but the return of McCaffrey gives them an Offensive output which can see them pull away from Oregon State in the second half.

Stanford have covered in their last six games against Oregon State and are facing a team off an emotional loss in Week 9 on Homecoming. I can see them using their strong Defensive showings of late to help come through with a win by around 17 points in this one and I will back the Cardinal to cover.


Florida Gators @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: The SEC East looks significantly weaker than the SEC West, but one of these teams has to make it through to the Conference Championship Game and the Florida Gators are in prime spot to do that. Their one loss on the season to Tennessee won't matter unless they are to lose both of their remaining games in the Conference and a win this week might be enough to book their plane tickets in December.

The Gators don't want to be looking too far ahead though as they face an Arkansas Razorbacks squad that are going to be desperate to make up for their humiliation against the Auburn Tigers. The Razorbacks have been on a bye week so have had time to stew on things and this is not an easy place to visit as the Alabama Crimson Tide would testify.

Importantly for Arkansas they should have Austin Allen available at Quarter Back but this is going to be a significant challenge for him against this Florida Defensive unit which has been strong all season. Even the recent issues against the run shouldn't be an issue for Florida because the Razorbacks have not been able to produce the same kind of stuff that Alex Collins could so it might be down to Allen to make the plays with his arm.

Being banged up doesn't help the Quarter Back when you think of the pass rush pressure he is going to face in this one although Arkansas will have had the bye week to try and fix the issues on the Offensive Line. That might not matter much with Florida being very strong against the pass and it is the Gators Defensive unit that can set them up for a big day.

Running the ball is not likely to be a big issue for the Florida Gators with both Jordan Scarlett and Mark Thompson capable of setting them up against this Arkansas Defensive Line. The bye week might have given the Razorbacks the chance to rest some weary bodies which had allowed 7.8 yards per carry in their last three games, but stopping the run has been a problem all season for them.

That should give Luke Del Rio the chance to manage the game out of third and short situations and I do think the Gators are going to have more success moving the chains in this one. Del Rio has been well protected and Arkansas haven't really been able to get to the Quarter Back thanks to issues defending the run and it could be a tough day for them.

A key for the Gators is to avoid losing the turnover battle as that can give any team life in a game. If they can do that I think they will be too good for Arkansas and can win by a Touchdown at least against a school they have beaten four times in a row.


Missouri Tigers @ South Carolina Gamecocks Pick: When you have a Head Coach as long as Gary Pinkel was in charge of the Missouri Tigers, it is perhaps no surprise that there has been a slip in the way they have played this season. Missouri reached the SEC Championship Game in 2013 and 2014 but they slipped to a losing record in 2015 and they need to win all four games remaining in 2016 if they are going to be Bowl eligible.

Over the last two years they are now 1-11 in SEC games and it is no surprise that the public are backing the South Carolina Gamecocks to beat them and cover this weekend. Will Muschamp has come in and got the team playing better than expected and they are just two wins from returning to a Bowl game having missed out last season and deciding to part ways with Steve Spurrier.

All credit has to be given to Muschamp who has been known for his Defensive work and his Gamecocks have not allowed more than 28 points in any game this season. It happened four times in 2015 and has been a key to their 4-4 record with the Offensive side of the ball still a work in progress.

Rico Dowdle had a good game running the ball for the Gamecocks in Week 9 and he has a good match up against the Missouri Defensive Line which has struggled all season. They've regressed in recent games as teams have managed to produce over 320 yards per game on the ground alone, and even the Gamecocks might be able to make hay with those ugly numbers for Missouri to deal with.

That should ease any pressure on Quarter Back Jake Bentley who has played well in his two starts for South Carolina including in the upset win over Tennessee last week. The Offensive Line has had some issues in pass protection, but Bentley might be kept in third and manageable spots thanks to Dowdle's numbers on the ground and that is key for South Carolina to find a way to keep the chains moving even through the inconsistent performances from the Offense.

For all the plaudits I have to give Muschamp for the turnaround for South Carolina, one aspect he will clearly be looking to improve is the rushing numbers against his team. That is going to be tested to the absolute fullest in Week 10 because the Missouri Tigers have begun to run the ball effectively through Damarea Crockett and Ish Witter and there should be some lanes for them to penetrate against a South Carolina Defensive Line that has allowed over 200 yards per game on the ground over their last three games.

Missouri have established the run effectively which does give them a shot in this one despite the point spread offered by Vegas. Drew Lock has to play smartly at Quarter Back as he throws into a Secondary that hasn't given up big numbers of late and who also have turned the ball over, but doing that from third and manageable down and distance could give Lock the chance to have a solid outing.

Lock has been well protected so I think he can help move the chains even when they are not doing that with their rushing Offense. That should give the Tigers opportunities here and they have beaten South Carolina the last two times they have played including as a 6.5 point underdog in their last visit to Columbia. I am going to back them with the same number of points in Week 10 and look for Missouri to do enough damage with their running game to keep this one close.

Despite the public money on the home favourite, the spread has actually come down from the key number 7, but I still like the Tigers in this spot.


Florida State Seminoles @ NC State Wolfpack Pick: Instead of challenging the Clemson Tigers for a place in the ACC Championship Game, this has been a really difficult season for the Florida State Seminoles who are just 2-3 in Conference games. They are coming in off a narrow loss to the Clemson Tigers at home after it looked like they were going to knock their opponents from the ranks of the unbeatens, but now the Seminoles have to pick themselves up for the remainder of the season.

In Week 10 Florida State head to the NC State Wolfpack who have had three really tough weeks and dropped all three games against Clemson, Louisville and Boston College. Playing at home against Florida State will give the Wolfpack plenty of motivation while they still need two more wins to earn a Bowl bid.

The Seminoles haven't had too many issues on the Offensive side of the ball and you have to think they will be able to score points in this one. Deondre Francois was beaten up at Quarter Back last week which is a concern when you think of the pass rush the Wolfpack have been able to generate even during their tough three game stretch, but Francois is also throwing into a Secondary which have still given up over 325 yards per game through the air in that stretch.

Francois also has the benefit of playing with one of the best Running Backs in College Football as Dalvin Cook has shown he can rip off big gains even against the stoutest of Defensive Lines. The Wolfpack do have a very good Defensive Line, but that might not be enough against Cook and that will only set up Francois to make some big plays from Quarter Back against the NC State Defense.

With the Offense likely able to make some solid plays in this game, the question is whether the Defensive unit can continue to make the improvements after starting off pretty badly. The Seminoles have begun to make life very difficult to run the ball against them and might become the latest team to shut down Matthew Dayes who has struggled the last two weeks.

Keeping NC State in third and long will at least put some pressure on Ryan Finley at Quarter Back and give the Florida State pass rush a chance to pin back their ears and get after him. That has been a problem for Finley in the last three games as the opposition have strengthened compared with earlier in the season and has also led to mistakes from the Quarter Back.

Finley has thrown two picks in each of his last three games and giving Florida State extra possessions is not going to be productive for the Wolfpack. The Seminoles have given up some big numbers through the air, but they have a penchant for turning the ball over too in recent weeks which could be a key to this game.

Coming off a close loss to the Clemson Tigers might be an emotional blow for Florida State, but they have faced NC State in the game immediately after the Tigers the last three seasons and won each by at least 15 points per game. That includes blowing them out last season when losing to the Clemson Tigers on the road, and I think the Seminoles can earn a couple of Interceptions which helps them pull away from the Wolfpack and win this one by at least seven points.


Oregon Ducks @ USC Trojans Pick: The USC Trojans are not likely to have enough to get into the College Football Play Off bracket even if they win the Pac-12 Championship Game, but they do have a chance to get into that game and win the Conference. The Trojans hold the tiebreaker over the Colorado Buffaloes who have been exceeding any expectations by leading the Pac-12 South, but they do need Colorado to drop a game and also to run the table.

That looks a big ask for the Trojans who follow this game with the Oregon Ducks by visiting the Washington Huskies and UCLA Bruins in back to back weeks. The Ducks might be the 'easiest' team they face in that run as Oregon have slipped again under Mark Helfrich who might be on the hot seat going forward.

Last season saw Oregon snap a run of 7 seasons with at least double digit wins and this year they are struggling to make it to a Bowl game with their current 3-5 record. Oregon did snap a 5 game losing run in Week 9 and they might be catching the USC Trojans perhaps not completely focused on them with those big games to come.

It looks like the Trojans will keep out Justin Davis who has been banged up at Running Back, but that hasn't bothered USC who should have another strong outing behind this Offensive Line this week. Ronald Jones will once again have the bulk of the carries, and he is going up against an Oregon Defensive Line that has been worn down and giving up over 275 yards per game on the ground in recent weeks at a horrible 6 yards per carry.

This all means Sam Darnold can continue his progress at Quarter Back and he should be able to have a decent day against a Secondary that has really struggled to slow the pass. With little pressure around him, Darnold should be able to use the fact that the Trojans are running the ball effectively to have play-action passes down the field and USC should be able to score plenty of points.

The Oregon Ducks are being given a lot of points to start off and the feeling that the USC Trojans are going to score on most possessions might mean it is not enough. However the Oregon Ducks have also been able to move the ball effectively enough and even the improved Trojans Defensive unit is going to be challenged in this one.

The rare blowout loss to the Washington Huskies can be forgiven for Oregon who are facing a Defense that has also struggled to stop the run this week. The Trojans have not played to the level of the Huskies on that side of the ball and I think the Ducks can establish the run against a Defensive Line that has allowed 4.3 yards per carry.

It will be helpful enough for Justin Herbert who has been given the keys to the Offense at Quarter Back despite being a Freshman like Darnold. This could be invaluable experience for Herbert who is coming in off a huge game and could have some similar success in this one against a USC Secondary allowing 250 passing yards per game in the last three games. The importance for Herbert is to avoid the Interceptions which can be a killer in games like this one and that means facing up to the pass rush pressure and making plays.

Being helped by the run is very important for Herbert and I do think the Oregon Ducks can score points in this one. While USC need to keep winning, it wouldn't be a huge surprise if this is a tight game with the focus perhaps taken away by the upcoming game with the unbeaten Washington Huskies.

There seems to be enough points here for the Oregon Ducks to keep this one close although I don't like being on the same side as the public on this one. Oregon have been horrible against the spread this season, but I will back them here.


Alabama Crimson Tide @ LSU Tigers Pick: The Alabama Crimson Tide are the defending National Champions and their start to the 2016 season has seen them go unbeaten and unsurprisingly the Number 1 Seed in the first College Football Play Off bracket. With that in mind, it is no wonder the public are fully behind the Crimson Tide as they head to Death Valley for a night game against the LSU Tigers who can throw this SEC West Division wide open by winning at home.

A win would give the Tigers a chance to win the Division but this looks like being a big task for them, even at home, but I can't help think this is still too many points for the Crimson Tide to be covering.

Alabama are 6-2 against the spread this season and they have cashed the last three times they have faced SEC opponents as they continue progressing for a spot back in the Play Offs. They still have to face the improving Auburn Tigers in the Iron Bowl which is another issue for them, while they are facing a LSU team that has been much better since Ed Orgeron took over from Les Miles who had lost his way here.

Both Defensive units will feel they have the edge, although the Defensive Lines are facing some of the best run blocking teams in the nation. That is an area Alabama will feel they have an edge as they have found a way to limit what Leonard Fournette has been able to do against them in previous games despite Fournette looking like a player who is going to have a huge impact at the NFL level.

Things might be a little different this time with Orgeron capable of giving Defenses different looks than the predictable Les Miles Offense was offering. That might find Fournette have more room than usual, but running the ball against either of these Defensive Lines is a huge challenge.

Games like this could easily come down to which of the teams has more faith in their passing game and Danny Etling has looked more comfortable with Orgeron as Head Coach. However Jalen Hurts is not going to be in on the same kind of pressure that Etling will be facing when he is on the field and that can see the Freshman Alabama Quarter Back have some success throwing, although the LSU Secondary have been better than the Crimson Tide Secondary.

Hurts has to look after the ball though because turnovers are going to be huge in this game, while Etling has to be told that he doesn't need to force things when under pressure and 'punting' is not a loss in this game. It just feels like it is going to be a tight one with both teams more than capable of making the plays to win this game, although Alabama's experience and past success at shutting down Fournette likely means they have the edge.

Winning in Baton Rouge under the lights is very difficult for the road team and this has all the makings of a really tight game. Alabama have covered in four of their last five against the Tigers, but the last four games in Death Valley have been decided by seven points or fewer. LSU as the home underdog looks hard to ignore especially when getting more than a converted Touchdown worth of points and I like the Tigers in this spot.

MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels - 10 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 14.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Florida Gators - 4 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
Missouri Tigers + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks + 17.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week9: 3-8, - 5.23 Units (11 Units Staked, - 47.55% Yield)
Week 8: 4-5, - 1.27 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.11% Yield)
Week 7: 4-5, - 1.28 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.22% Yield)
Week 6: 7-1-1, + 5.35 Units (9 Units Staked, + 59.44% Yield)

Week 5: 2-7-1, - 5.14 Units (10 Units Staked, - 51.40% Yield)

Week 4: 6-3, + 2.59 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.78% Yield)

Week 3: 4-6, - 2.23 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)

Week 2: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)

Week 1: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)

Season 2016: 40-45-2, - 7.95 Units (87 Units Staked, - 3.57% Yield)

Season 2015: 87-77-2, + 2.77 Units (166 Units Staked, + 1.67% Yield)

Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)

Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)

Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 4th)

The ATP World Tour Finals will begin a week on Sunday and we now have a seventh name who will be playing in London after Marin Cilic beat David Goffin to earn his place for the second time in his career.

One place is left as we head into the Quarter Finals in Paris, while the final two Semi Finalists at the WTA Elite Trophy will also be decided on Friday. While it won't be as busy a day as we have had over the last few days with the matches scheduled, it will be a day with plenty of big tennis matches to be played before we get to the final couple of days of the 2016 season for most players on the Tour.

The race to finish as World Number 1 also continues on Friday with both Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray making their way through to the Quarter Finals. Two more wins will also mean Djokovic keeps that position going into the World Tour Finals, while Murray will be hoping Djokovic is perhaps upset in this Round and that will give him a chance to take over if he can go on and win the title here.

Petra Kvitova - 4.5 games v Barbora Strycova: These two are Fed Cup team-mates but Petra Kvitova and Barbora Strycova will try and put that to the back of the mind as they play for a Semi Final spot at the WTA Elite Trophy. Both players have beaten Roberta Vinci in this Group so the winner is going to move through to the next Round which will be played on Saturday.

Kvitova and Strycova have been named in a strong Czech Republic team that will be contesting the Fed Cup Final against France next weekend. I don't think either player will be looking that far ahead and instead will be focused on playing one another, although Strycova needs to find a way to challenge Kvitova who has won six of their previous seven matches.

Their last match was a tight one in Doha, but that had more to do with Kvitova not taking her chances on the break points compared with Strycova who was very efficient. Generally this has been a match up that Kvitova has enjoyed having a significant edge when it comes to the power off the ground and her serve is also a much bigger weapon which can make all the difference in matches like this one.

The higher Ranked Czech player also loves playing in Asia and ended the regular season in solid form which she took into crushing Vinci in her first match in the Group. Kvitova has been playing well enough to think she will have a break more in each set in this one and that can see her come through with a 64, 63 win to make it through to the Semi Final.

Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Caroline Garcia: Caroline Garcia is another player who will be competing in the Fed Cup Final next weekend, but for now she is trying to build some confidence on the Singles Tour as she pushes for a place in the Semi Final at the WTA Elite Trophy. She has to beat Johanna Konta to do that after both players were comfortable winners over Sam Stosur.

It hadn't been the best end to 2016 for Garcia prior to that win over Stosur and she will know that she needs to serve at her best if she is going to beat Konta to reach the Semi Final. The British player has been able to really put her aggressive style to good use and I think she is going to be the better one on the court as she is also getting more out of her own serve.

The motivation at the WTA Elite Trophy has to be very high as Konta looks to underline how good her 2016 has been and she doesn't have the same fluctuations in form as Garcia does within a match. While I do think there will be moments where Garcia plays the tennis that saw her tipped to reach the World Number 1 Ranking, I also think there will be others when she starts committing too many errors as the Konta pressure breaks her down.

That could easily see Garcia drop a set by a couple of breaks of serve difference and might just lead to a 63, 63 kind of win for Johanna Konta who can move into the Semi Final.

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Marin Cilic: Marin Cilic beat David Goffin and confirmed his place in the ATP World Tour Finals which means 2016 is going to end in very strong fashion for the former US Open Champion. Playing in London will be followed by the Davis Cup Final and Marin Cilic might be in a position to add a couple of big trophies to that US Open he won in 2014.

Cilic can't just be happy to get to London but surely wants to head to that tournament by winning his second Masters event of the season having done that in Cincinnati in the summer. However that means snapping a 14 match losing run to Novak Djokovic who looks highly motivated to retain his World Number 1 spot for another week.

Motivation is one thing, but Djokovic's execution has mainly been very good although there are still signs he is not completely happy with his serve. He dropped the first set to Grigor Dimitrov who also had chances in the second set, but the Bulgarian slipped away in a manner that the in-form Cilic is less likely to do.

However it is the second long week in a row for the Basel Champion which is a concern, although Cilic won't have forgotten his humiliation at the hands of Djokovic in the 2015 US Open as the defending Champion. Unfortunately that was the way matches between these players have gone more often than not and I am going to back Djokovic to find a way to a 63, 64 win if Cilic is serving as erratically as he did against David Goffin on Thursday.


Andy Murray - 4.5 games v Tomas Berdych: The head to head between Andy Murray and Tomas Berdych is 'only' 9-6 in favour of Murray, but the last five matches have been dominated by the World Number 2 since Dani Vallverdu decided to offer Berdych some advice. The relationship between Berdych and Vallverdu has concluded, but Murray's dominance of recent matches continues and I can only see one winner in this Quarter Final.

It isn't easy to dismiss the chances of a regular name in the top ten of the World Rankings, but Berdych has not been in the greatest form of late and he has lost the last 12 sets played against Murray. Add in the fact that he hasn't won more than three games in any of the last 7 sets and you begin to worry about his chances in this one.

I do think he may have a couple of big chances in this one to break serve and remain competitive as Murray has not been firing at his best this week. He has played a lot of tennis of late and that has to wear down on a player from a mental and physical perspective, but Berdych has also not been as convincing behind serve as he usually is.

A player like Murray is going to get plenty of the big first serves not only back in play, but back in play in awkward positions which begins the rally from scratch and I would expect him to win plenty of those. Murray had an easy day in the office on Thursday which should have allowed him to keep some of the energy required in store for this one and I think he is going to come through with a relatively straight-forward 63, 64 win.

MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 14-8, + 10.94 Units (44 Units Staked, + 24.86% Yield)

NFL Week 9 Picks 2016 (November 3-7)

The NFL season is progressing at the rate of knots it feels and we are over half way through the 2016 season in Week 9. That means we are through the trade deadline and not many would have seen Jamie Collins being moved from the New England Patriots to the Cleveland Browns, although the majority of the big names that were rumoured to be on the trading block didn't make any moves.

Teams are now set as they are going through to the post-season and beyond and Las Vegas has tipped up the New England Patriots versus the Dallas Cowboys as the most likely Super Bowl. There is still plenty of Football to be played before we get to that point, but those two teams do look the best in their respective Conferences at this moment in time.

However I have seen teams get hot in December too often to pay too much attention to form in October and there is always a couple of dangerous teams floating close to the top of the standings that have to be looked out for. I expect the Pittsburgh Steelers to be much better than they showed in the home loss to the Patriots, while the NFC could see a team like the Green Bay Packers get hot once their Defensive players are back from injury especially with Aaron Rodgers beginning to look more like his old self.

Week 8 was a second good one for the NFL Picks and that has turned a losing record into a winning one for the season. I've gone 10-5 over the last two weeks to get things moving in the right direction, but again there is a lot of Football to be played before the 2016 season is finished and I just hope I can keep finding the right games on the weekly schedule.


Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: The NFC South takes centre stage on Thursday Night Football to open up Week 9 of the NFL season as the Atlanta Falcons visit the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Falcons edged over the Green Bay Packers last Sunday and are in complete control of the Division, but a defeat to the Buccaneers would open things back up for the likes of the Carolina Panthers who can get hot at this time of the season.

The Falcons have lost some close games this season, but the most disappointing one might be the home loss to the Buccaneers in Week 1. They were favoured to win that game and are favoured to win again as the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew the chance to beat the Oakland Raiders in Week 8 and have put themselves in a spot of bother.

Matt Ryan has been in solid form for Atlanta and showed that is capable of playing without Julio Jones at full tilt. It looks like Jones might not be a big factor in this one either, but Ryan can still have a solid day throwing the ball against a Tampa Bay Secondary who have given up close to 300 passing yards per game in their last three games.

They have been able to get some pressure up front and the Atlanta Offensive Line has had their problems, but Ryan is mobile enough to get out of the pocket and look to make his plays downfield. Also Ryan has shown an ability to run for First Downs when teams have lined up in man coverage so he should have a strong game statistically.

It won't be all about Ryan though as the Tampa Bay Defensive Line have really been a problem in recent weeks as they have given up 5.5 yards per carry in their last three games. Devonta Freeman has been banged up a little of late, but he is able to make some plays running the ball, while is also a threat catching the ball out of the backfield which should help the Falcons make some consistent plays Offensively throughout the sixty minutes of this game.

The Buccaneers will need to match them score for score and it does have to be said that Jameis Winston has enjoyed playing this team in his career. However Winston has just been having some issues connecting with Mike Evans and Cameron Brate in the passing game on a consistent basis although playing this Atlanta Secondary might help him get over those.

Atalanta have been able to show they can get to the Quarter Back though and that might stall some of the drives while Tampa Bay have plenty of injuries on the Running Back unit which might prevent them having much joy establishing the run. The Falcons have just knuckled down on the Defensive Line to slow the running yards that they are giving up which means it will be up to Winston to make the plays to keep the team moving forward.

There have just been a few more issues for Tampa Bay in recent weeks and it is hard to ignore the fact they have given up almost 100 more yards in three of their last four games. Doing that against the Falcons is only going to lead to one winner in my mind and I like the Falcons to do that here.

The potential for a shoot out could mean a backdoor cover for Tampa Bay which would be a concern for my pick, but I think the Falcons are the better team and can get revenge for their home loss in Week 1. Winston might have won each time he has played this Divisional rival, but it can be Matt Ryan's day who should be backed by the stronger running game and that can help the Falcons win a high-scoring game by at least seven points.


I've had a busy week so not been able to do the usual breakdown of games from the Sunday NFL games, but I have the picks in the 'MY PICKS' section.

MY PICKS: Atlanta Falcons - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cleveland Browns + 7 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Stan James (2 Units)
New York Jets + 4 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Indianapolis Colts + 7 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Week 8: 5-2, + 5.34 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)
Week 7: 5-3, + 3.36 Units (16 Units Staked, + 21% Yield)
Week 6: 3-3, - 0.46 Units (12 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 5: 2-3-1, - 2.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 19.67% Yield)
Week 4: 5-5, + 0.26 Units (19 Units Staked, + 1.37% Yield)
Week 3: 2-3-1, - 2.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)

Week 1: 4-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)

Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 3rd)

Last Wednesday has been the worst day I've had picking tennis matches for weeks, but I have to say the turn around since then has been very encouraging.

It has come full circle with the Wednesday picks from this week completely different to last week at the same time. Back then the picks went 1-6 on a difficult day, but yesterday it was a 6-1 record which has produced a lot of positive numbers and put this week in a very strong position.

I want to push on from Wednesday and make sure this week finishes with more positive results before the week away from the tennis picks before the ATP World Tour Finals begin.


There are some important matches to be played on Thursday as the WTA Elite Trophy starts moving towards the Semi Finals, while the Paris Masters has a few big matches that could determine which players can make it through to the World Tour Finals. Dominic Thiem's early exit means the door has been opened for players to make the top eight and the key match of the day might be Marin Cilic taking on David Goffin with those players currently in Number 8 and Number 10 in the Race for London.

Tomas Berdych and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga might feel they've been given opportunities by the early loss for Thiem and so Thursday should be a very interesting day for the players involved.

The race for the World Number 1 position will also continue after Novak Djokovic and Andy Murray came through awkward Second Round matches. The Murray match in particularly was surprising considering how Fernando Verdasco has been finishing his 2016 season, but he did get through and it is Djokovic who has the more difficult match on paper in the Third Round.

However it is Djokovic who gets to go on court first, although I don't think that is a big issue, and the current World Number 1 has admitted he is not thinking about Murray but worrying about making sure his own 'A' game is being taken to the court.


Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Elena Vesnina: After winning her opening match in the Group, Elina Svitolina can book her place in the Semi Final by beating Elena Vesnina. The Russian does come into the match having had the confidence boosted by winning the Doubles title at the WTA Finals in Singapore last week, but her Singles performances have not really been up to that standard in the latter part of 2016.

Vesnina has lost every match she has played since the US Open on the Singles side of things and a couple of the three losses have come in one sided fashion. Playing in the WTA Elite Trophy tournament should give her motivation to end 2016 on a high, but she is coming up against a player who might have been in the best form of anyone entering this tournament.

After taking some time to settle in, Svitolina proved to be too strong for Kiki Bertens in her first match and my only concern in ever backing her to cover these wide number of games has to be the inconsistent play from set to set. There are times when I really struggle to know how Svitolina has come as high as she has in the World Rankings, but others when I think she should be a comfortable top ten player.

It was Vesnina who won the first two matches between these players, but Svitolina crushed her in New Haven and I think she will be more comfortable with a match under her belt here. I do think Vesnina can be a solid Singles player, but Svitolina is in the better form on the Singles court and I like her to find her way to a 63, 64 win.


David Goffin + 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: This is an absolutely huge match for both David Goffin and Marin Cilic when it comes to fighting for the places at the World Tour Finals in London. A win for Cilic would actually be enough, if my maths are correct, to move ahead of Dominic Thiem and also knock out a main rival for the top eight places which would mean a place in the World Tour Finals.

That is a bit of pressure on Cilic's shoulders whereas David Goffin knows he needs to go very deep into the tournament in Paris to have a chance of making it into the top eight rather than as an alternate. The Belgian player had a solid win in the Second Round, but he will have to raise his game even more when he takes on Cilic, although Goffin holds the mental edge having won all three previous matches against Cilic in 2016.

It is similar to the way Kei Nishikori can give Cilic some problems, although the Croatian is in very strong form and won the title in Basel by crushing Nishikori who he had under constant pressure with his aggressive return of serve. Cilic is certainly capable of crushing the Goffin serve if the latter is serving as poorly as he was on Wednesday, but fatigue could be an issue after the long week in Basel.

This has all the makings of a real fight between these players and I would be surprised if Cilic is as easy a winner as the layers seem to think. I have been impressed with how Cilic has performed the last few weeks, but he was beaten in Tokyo by Goffin who made life awkward enough by getting plenty of first serves back in play. The head to head can't be ignored with the matches all coming in 2016 and each time it is the factor of Goffin getting the Cilic first serve back which has been so important for his success.

Taking a set will make it difficult for Cilic to cover this number, but there is every chance Goffin can win outright again and I will take the games on offer.


Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: I might be a fool opposing the World Number 1 for the second time in consecutive days, especially as backing Gilles Muller with the games was the only pick I got wrong on Wednesday. Novak Djokovic has been speaking with more confidence than I have heard for some time and he is clearly motivated or irked by the suggestions Andy Murray could take over the Number 1 mantle at the end of the week.

The first set against Muller was impressive from Djokovic who only lost one point against the serve in legitimate ways (the other two points came from double faults), but the second set saw Muller get closer. I remain convinced that Djokovic is not all that confident behind the serve and I do think the second serve is a concern for him, while Grigor Dimitrov looks to have his chances dismissed too easily.

2016 has been difficult for Dimitrov but he has shown improvement over the last three months and I definitely think he is on the right path back up the World Rankings. I don't think he will ever fulfil the 'Baby Fed' moniker he was given but Dimitrov is capable of hanging with the best players on the Tour and should be relishing the chance to take on a Djokovic who hasn't played a lot of tennis recently.

Since Dimitrov was humiliated at the US Open in a heavy loss to Andy Murray he has played Murray, Rafael Nadal and Juan Martin Del Potro. While he has lost two of those big matches, Dimitrov would have covered with this number of games each time which suggests he is being competitive and Dimitrov has the quality to hurt Djokovic if the latter has lost faith in the second serve's ability.

The bigger problem for Dimitrov might be holding onto his own serve, but another odds against quote with a fair few games on the board is hard to ignore for me.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 1.5 games v Kei Nishikori: Both Kei Nishikori and Jo-Wilfried Tsonga ended up as Runners Up in Basel and Vienna respectively last week, but both seem to have rounded into some nice form to close out 2016. The wins they have earned on Wednesday looked in impressive fashion and that makes this a very good Third Round match for those who will be watching.

It is Nishikori who has gotten the better of Tsonga in previous matches including a really dominating win over the Frenchman at the Australian Open. However these courts might suit the Tsonga game a little more with the heavier serve and big forehand likely to find some penetration on a court which is still on the faster side of the Tour.

Tsonga has plenty of motivation this week as he tries for one last ditch attempt to make it to the World Tour Finals, especially in light of Dominic Thiem potentially being another player who has to withdraw from the event in London. That can be coupled with the court they are playing on as to give Tsonga a chance for the upset win here, although Nishikori's movement and ability to rally into the backhand is part of the reason he has been able to get the better of this opponent in the past.

Nishikori also holds two wins over Tsonga at the Paris Masters, but both have been incredibly close matches that have needed final set deciders. Those matches were played in 2013 and 2014 and while Nishikori is improved, I think Tsonga might show a little more fight to turn things in his favour and I will back the underdog with the games.


Tomas Berdych - 1.5 games v Gilles Simon: There are some head to head match ups that surprise you when you see which player is winning- one of the ones that always comes to mind is the way Fabrice Santoro used to baffle Marat Safin and ended with a 7-2 head to head against him. While not to the same level of dominance, Gilles Simon having a 7-5 record over Tomas Berdych has to be considered a surprise.

You would think Berdych would be able to overpower Simon, but the Frenchman has to be one of the most irritating defenders on the Tour with an insane ability to make hundreds of balls without seemingly tiring. Someone like Berdych wants to hit out and having to make that many shots sees him break down and eventually make too many mistakes.

Berdych will have to serve a lot better than he did on Tuesday, but that day off could be crucial as Simon was battling in the evening on Wednesday. We know Berdych will have chances to break serve with even an average returning day, but he didn't play well in the win over Joao Sousa for long periods and that has to be a concern for him.

I think Berdych is better than he showed on Tuesday and having more time to recover than Simon could be critical as the Czech player tries to extend his run of reaching the World Tour Finals. This will be a battle as it always in when Simon is playing but I can see Berdych getting the better of him over three sets and coming through with a 63, 46, 76 win.


Andy Murray - 5.5 games v Lucas Pouille: There is plenty of motivation for Andy Murray heading into this tournament, but you cannot ignore the huge amount of tennis he has played in recent weeks to get into a position to earn the World Number 1 Ranking. Murray was pushed to the limit by Fernando Verdasco in the Second Round on Wednesday, but you can see how strong he is still feeling by coming through against an opponent who was playing close to his best tennis.

Murray will be battling the fans and Lucas Pouille on Thursday in the Third Round but this has been a good match up for him and I expect the same in Paris when they meet. For all of the improvement made by Pouille over the course of 2016 to finish in the top 20 of the World Rankings, I still think the Frenchman is trying to find the consistency in his game to take the next step forward.

He has particular trouble against Andy Murray in their two previous matches this season and the most games Pouille has won in a set is three games, although that only happened once in four sets competed. The problem for Pouille is that he is not going to get a lot of cheap points from Murray and has some difficulty penetrating the Brit's defences.

That forces Pouille to go closer and closer to the lines and ends up with some errors in his games that only helps Murray keep control of the match. With Murray's serve working effectively enough, it is no surprise he has been able to dominate the rallies and Murray has broken the Pouille serve four times in both matches. Doing that here should give him every chance to win this one 64, 62 and I will back Murray to cover the games.


John Isner - 2.5 games v Jan-Lennard Struff: This is the second time in consecutive weeks that John Isner and Jan-Lennard Struff are playing one another on the Tour and I backed Isner to win and cover last week. This week he is being asked to cover a game less than last week which isn't a surprise when you consider how close Struff came to beating the American in Vienna.

However I think it might be a difficult spot for Struff to get over the hump this time because of the emotional win he had on Wednesday evening over Stan Wawrinka. That match came late into the Paris evening and Struff had to come from a set down to win two tough tiebreakers and that has to have taken something from the tank.

His problem remains avoiding the sloppy service games that can cost him sets and matches and I think that will be an issue here. Struff might have some joy from the Isner serve because the latter is not serving up to his standards and having seen this shot at first hand just a week ago, but I think it will be difficult to break the serve with his limited return game.

Backing up a first win over a top ten opponent is going to be tough for Struff and I think Isner is able to get the better of him again and I will back him to win this one 76, 64 nd move into the Quarter Final in Paris.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov + 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga + 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 1.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Andy Murray - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
John Isner - 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-5, + 8.54 Units (30 Units Staked, + 28.47% Yield)

Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 2nd)

Tomas Berdych escaped with a win on Wednesday to become the first of the players chasing the final spots at the World Tour Finals to make it through to the Third Round. He can have a rest on Wednesday and allow his rivals for those places to battle it out, while both Andy Murray and Novak Djokovic get their events underway as they battle it out for the World Number 1 spot in the World Ranking.

The WTA Elite Trophy moves onto the second day as the four Groups begin to take shape too on what is a very busy Wednesday in terms of amount of matches to get through on a full day of action.


David Goffin - 3.5 games v Nicolas Mahut: There are four players who are battling for the remaining two spots at the World Tour Finals this week in Paris and David Goffin is the one who needs most help. He is in a good position to at least reach London as an alternate and Goffin may also feel he needs to finish as high as possible with Gael Monfils withdrawing this week from Paris with an injury he wants to rest.

Goffin will need at least two of the players above him to fall early on this week so he won't have been happy seeing Tomas Berdych sneak through to the Third Round, but he can only concentrate on his own matches. Playing a home favourite is always going to be tough, but Nicolas Mahut needs to improve his performance significantly if he is going to beat a player Ranked as highly as Goffin is.

They have met recently on the Tour and Goffin was dominant in the match and Mahut has struggled for form since then. Even his win over Martin Klizan came from a position where Mahut trailed by a set and a break and falling into that kind of hole against Goffin is going to be very much more difficult to recover.

The key for Mahut is getting enough first serves in play to earn cheap points and short balls because his second serve will be attacked by Goffin and the latter is the superior player from the back of the court. Goffin should be playing with plenty of motivation and he can take care of Mahut where Klizan failed and come through with a 63, 75 win.


Kei Nishikori - 4.5 games v Victor Troicki: This is not the final week of the season for Kei Nishikori who will be playing in the World Tour Finals in London, so there is a question as to how much motivation he has for a big week. Nishikori is coming off a strong week where he reached the Final in Basel and there is a week between the end of the tournament in Paris and the beginning of the World Tour Finals in London so concerns about motivation have perhaps been able to be put to the back of the mind.

Fatigue could potentially be an issue later in the week, but Nishikori has had a few days off and has enjoyed the match up with Troicki having beaten him the last four times they have played. Troicki is an up and down player, but he has had some notable wins on the Tour since the US Open against the likes of Rafael Nadal and Dominic Thiem.

The problem for Troicki is avoiding the losses that he simply shouldn't be having although he did manage to do that in the First Round here when beating Adrian Mannarino. The serve can be a big weapon, but Nishikori has to feel he can break down the Troicki forehand in the extended rallies and also use his superior movement and consistency to get the Serb moving side to side.

Troicki had a pretty long match on Tuesday and this may play a part in this match too. The courts here have tended to be on the faster side but Nishikori can get enough serves back in play to force errors from his opponent. After some moments where Nishikori will have to serve himself out of bad positions, I can see the Japanese player continuing his dominance over Troicki with a 75, 63 win.


Marin Cilic - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: Winning the title in Basel has put Marin Cilic in a position to qualify for the World Tour Finals in London, but he has to back that up this week and keep clear of Tomas Berdych and David Goffin. At this moment Cilic is only 40 points clear of Berdych in the final position in London and Cilic is also trying to build some form to take into the Davis Cup Final in a few weeks ago.

Getting to London will mean overcoming compatriot Ivo Karlovic who is a big obstacle to say the least. The serve makes Karlovic very dangerous and he has had some solid results over the second half of the season which suggests the veteran is showing very little sign of slowing down.

That has a lot to do with his game and the ease in which he can get through matches without the physical effort that other players might have to use. He might need more in this one though as Cilic's wingspan should mean he is able to get a few more balls in play that smaller players are unable to do.

Karlovic's ability to get to the net should mean a few problems for Cilic to get into a lot of the service games and Karlovic was an impressive winner over Cilic at the Canadian Masters this past summer. However Cilic has been able to return better than he did on that occasion and I think there is enough motivation for him to play well here to come away with a 76, 64 win.


Lucas Pouille - 1.5 games v Feliciano Lopez: I backed Lucas Pouille to beat Feliciano Lopez when these players met last week in Vienna and it was a very close match that the Frenchman might feel he should have won. With the home crowd behind him this week, I am backing Pouille to have a little more success at the big moments and get the better of Lopez who has already beaten one Frenchman this week.

They had very similar numbers when they played last week with Lopez having a bit more joy on the ace front, and Pouille having a couple more double faults which seemed to make all the difference. It did look like Pouille had built up the momentum to win that match and had the break points in the final set to do so before coming up just short.

It would be wrong of me to suddenly think Pouille shouldn't be the favourite in this match because of that close loss that could easily have gone his way. He has played with some real quality this season, but it will be important for him to try and take away the big Lopez first serve from what he has learned last week and having the crowd really behind him can give Pouille the motivation to dig in a little deeper.

I won't be surprised if we need three sets to separate the players again, but this time I think Pouille comes away with a 46, 63, 64 win.


Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 games v Albert Ramos-Vinolas: Losing the Final in Vienna means Jo-Wilfried Tsonga will miss out on a place at the World Tour Finals unless a number of withdrawals are made by players above him in the Race for London. Injuries have affected his 2016 season, but Tsonga can get the better of Albert Ramos-Vinolas again having beaten the Spaniard in the Quarter Final in Vienna last week.

Tsonga dominated the first set, but then began to struggle on serve with too many double faults giving Ramos-Vinolas confidence to try and get back into the match. At home Tsonga can play with a loud crowd behind him which is when he really thrives as a player and I think that can help him record a similar margin of victory as he had against him last week.

The problem for Ramos-Vinolas is that Tsonga should be able to get a very solid swing on the return against his first and second serve. There will be times the lefty serve is an issue for Tsonga whose weakest wing is the backhand, but I think the Frenchman can dominate the rallies with his first strike style and put Tsonga in a strong position in the match.

It would be easier for Tsonga if he is serving better than he was in Vienna, but even a similar level should help him come through with a 63, 64 win and a place in the Third Round.


Gilles Muller + 4.5 games v Novak Djokovic: For the first time since his surprising Semi Final loss in Shanghai, Novak Djokovic is back on the court as he looks to hold onto the World Number 1 Ranking he has had for a couple of years. Djokovic has to reach the Final at least this week if Andy Murray continues his fine form and does the same, but he could have hoped for an easier road into this tournament than the dangerous Gilles Muller.

It has been a solid few weeks for Muller who has reached the Semi Final in Basel and a Quarter Final in Tokyo, but he will need to be at his very best to challenge Djokovic. Two of their three previous matches have been very competitive and I do have to say that this is a Djokovic who might not be at his very best.

He has been speaking about the improvement he is feeling and it looks like Djokovic has been motivated by the fact that Murray has gotten so close to taking the World Number 1 spot. However there are some concerns about the Djokovic serve and whether it is going to be a shot that he can rely upon at big moments and Muller can hit out at times and make a few winners off the return which can help him force a break or two.

Muller has been serving well enough to challenge Djokovic with that shot too and this looks a lot of games to be given to the big serving lefty in this one. At odds against I have to back the games and look for Muller to keep this one competitive even if I am not sure he can actually complete the upset against what sounds like a newly motivated Djokovic.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Samantha Stosur: Even though Johanna Konta just missed out on a place at the WTA Finals, this is going to be remembered as a huge year for the British player as she has marched up the World Rankings. She has been given a berth at the WTA Elite Trophy tournament and Konta will look to underline her successes in 2016 with one more title.

I will admit I am a little concerned with her injury that meant Konta couldn't play in the last couple of tournaments which may have seen her finish in one of the positions to play at the WTA Finals. However she headed to Singapore prior to that tournament beginning and could easily have pulled out of the WTA Elite Trophy which suggest she is ready to compete.

Her match up with Samantha Stosur should be one that Konta can enjoy, especially when the rallies go from backhand to backhand where Konta is clearly stronger. Both have big serves, but Stosur did not end the season in great form and she has lost four matches in a row with the majority of them coming fairly easily.

A new coach is in place, but we might not see the best of that new partnership until 2017 after an off-season where Stosur can get the ideas right in her mind as to how to progress. Some of the losses suffered by the Australian were not very good down the stretch and Konta was playing well enough before her injury to win a match like this one. It might take Konta a little time to get to grips with things here, but she can eventually come through 75, 63 and move into a strong position in her Group.

MY PICKS: David Goffin - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucas Pouille - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Gilles Muller + 4.5 Games @ 2.25 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 4-4, - 0.70 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4.38% Yield)