Shanghai Tennis Picks 2016 (October 10th)

I have to say that the last couple of weeks have been highly frustrating for the picks after a strong US Open gave me a shot at ending this season by at least avoiding back to back losing seasons. That is looking increasingly likely now in the final six weeks of the 2016 season which is irritating to say the least.

The bigger tournaments have mainly been successful but getting married during the clay court season didn't help as I took a month off from the picks during the time that I seem to enjoy the most. I am hoping to end the next few weeks with a winning record which at least will give me some momentum to take into the 2017 season and there isn't a long 'off-season' for the players before they all go again and the Australian Open begins.


This week is a big one for players on both Tours as players chase the points that can see them play in the Tour Finals. The WTA Finals in Singapore are only a couple of weeks away from beginning, but there is a bit more time for the players chasing a place in the ATP World Tour Finals in London and plenty of points up for grabs in the coming weeks.

The players chasing the WTA elite eight have a little more pressing matters to attend to and there really isn't a lot of points that separate Garbine Muguruza in Number 6 and Svetlana Kuznetsova in Number 11 and that makes this a big week. In all honesty, it would take something special for Muguruza to not find the points to make it through, while Kuznetsova needs a lot to go for her to keep her alive including perhaps seeing Serena Williams withdraw from Singapore.

Madison Keys, Johanna Konta, Dominika Cibulkova and Carla Suarez Navarro are the four players who are most likely battling out for two players. All of those players are in action this week and I think it is going to be interesting to see how it pans out although I am sure these players will all be taking Wild Cards into the final events of the season next week to try and pick up the points they need to enter the tournament in Singapore.


Federico Delbonis + 3.5 games v Kyle Edmund: The British Number 2 Kyle Edmund came through the Qualifiers after a really strong week in Beijing and he is a big favourite to see off Federico Delbonis in this First Round match in Shanghai. I can't help feel he is too big a favourite against a player who is going to be trying to impress so he can represent Argentina in the Davis Cup Final and who has a game that can be very effective on the hard courts.

There is a lot to like about the Edmund game although it is no surprise that some of the 'experts' in the United Kingdom seem to be much higher on him than I am at this moment in time. While I see the positives in his game, I also have seen the negative side with shot selection sometimes not being the best and his serve can also be a little vulnerable.

The forehand is a huge weapon and will be going into the Delbonis backhand naturally, but it is the Argentinian's forehand going into the Edmund backhand that could cause problems. The Delbonis serve can also be very effective when he is feeling his game and I think he is capable of making this a very tough opening match for Edmund.

One real area of concern has to be the fact that Delbonis has lost ten of his last eleven matches and is facing a confident Edmund. However the youngster has been playing a lot of tennis of late and Delbonis is capable of winning a set which makes this an appealing number of games as long as that doesn't come in a tie-breaker win and I will take those games.


Mikhail Youzhny - 2.5 games v Nicolas Almagro: These two players are veterans of the ATP Tour who have seen better days, but you have to respect the fact that both Mikhail Youzhny and Nicolas Almagro still want to compete. Neither is going to be hungry in their retirement, but clearly enjoy the competitiveness of playing tennis and you are a long time retired as an athlete so credit to both players.

I have been particularly impressed with Youzhny who looked like he had finally slipped too far to compete on the main ATP Tour in 2015. He has bounced back very effectively in 2016 and while not likely to ever hit the heights of his peak, Youzhny is a dangerous player when he is feeling his tennis.

Youzhny has won two Qualifiers to get into the main draw in Shanghai and he has a 5-0 head to head record over Almagro although the last of those matches was back in 2013. Both players have had some poor losses to their names but I think Youzhny has at least won a few more matches on the hard courts recently and that could give him the edge.

The backhand to backhand rallies are going to be beautiful to watch, but I think Youzhny is the mentally stronger player and can find a way to edge out Almagro who is just 5-6 in hard court matches in 2016. It might be a match where both players have some issues when it comes to holding serve, but Youzhny can come through with a 46, 63, 64 win.


Laura Siegemund - 2.5 games v Viktorija Golubic: This is an interesting First Round match between two players who have had some decent results in 2016 but are not really threatening the very best players. For Laura Siegemund it has been a career year in terms of wins and her World Ranking, but Viktorija Golubic will also look back fondly having won a title on the main Tour.

In recent weeks we have seen Golubic win more matches compared with Siegemund, but it has to be noted that they have been competing at different levels. While Siegemund has played in big events in Wuhan and Beijing where it took losses from good quality opponents to prevent her having a deep run, Golubic was playing in Osaka and Guangzhou where she didn't really meet the very best players on the WTA Tour.

There is going to be chances for both players in this match with the way they play- I do think Golubic arguably has more talent, but Siegemund is not someone who will throw away matches but will give all she has to try and turn things in her favour.

That makes it a tight match, but I do think Siegemund has played at a higher level for the majority of the season and that should make her a little more tested at critical moments. That can be a key difference maker when the big points are played in this one although Golubic should have the power edge and can take the racquet out of Siegemund's hands.

I do think that Siegemund can have enough success with her defensive ability and able to turn the points from defence to attack to win this match. I think that leads to a 63, 46, 75 win for the German and a place through to the Second Round.


Sorana Cirstea + 3.5 games v Kiki Bertens: It feels a long time since Sorana Cirstea was seen as one of the bright prospects on the WTA Tour and he has struggled over the last three seasons to find her consistency. When you think Cirstea won over 60 matches on the main Tour in 2012 and 2013, it is hard to imagine she has won just 20 matches between 2014 and 2016.

There are still things you can like about the Cirstea game which has seen her serve well and use plenty of power to penetrate defences of opponents. However the inconsistency has really hurt her chances to get back amongst the best players on the WTA Tour and it is no surprise she is an underdog in this First Round match.

In saying that I am not sure Kiki Bertens can really be as big a favourite to win any match at the moment when you think she has lost 6 matches in a row since losing in the Final in Gstaad. This is the first time Bertens is back on the Tour since losing in the First Round at the US Open and I do wonder if there is some sort of physical ailment that has prevented the Dutchwoman from ending 2016 in really strong fashion.

She is the rightful favourite considering how big the Bertens game is and the form she has generally shown over the last few months. My concern is that she is not quite at 100% and Cirstea is certainly a player that has the ability to expose any vulnerabilities and at least win a set by a wide margin which makes this number of games very appealing.

It is hard to really have faith in Cirstea considering her rather poor form on the main Tour since 2014, but Bertens might not have a lot left in the tank for 2016 so I will take the games.


Johanna Larsson - 1.5 games v Misaki Doi: The Asian swing probably means more to Misaki Doi than for many other players on the Tour and she might be a little disappointed by the lack of wins she had over the last month. Now she returns to Europe as the 2016 season comes to a close and takes on Johanna Larsson who already has the most wins on the main Tour in a single season in her entire career.

The edge in this match on the serve has to be given to Larsson who has a big kicker and can earn plenty of short balls from that which allows her to dictate the points. She is not as strong as Doi when it comes to the extended rallies so Larsson will have to make sure she can get in a big first strike on the return against a serve which is not one of the biggest on the Tour.

That serve has allowed players to really attack Doi and I am not surprised she has a 9-17 record on the hard courts in 2016 as it can be tougher to recover breaks on this surface. Being indoors should only aid Larsson a little more and I do think the layers have got it right by setting her as the favourite in this match.

Misaki Doi hasn't won a lot of matches on the Tour over the last couple of months and I think that has to be sapping some of the confidence. In this one I can see Larsson being a little too strong as the match goes on with an ability to get a few more cheaper points off the serve and I will back the Swedish player to cover the games in a win.

MY PICKS: Federico Delbonis + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Laura Siegemund - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Sorana Cirstea + 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Johanna Larsson - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Season 2016: - 28.58 Units (1739 Units Staked, - 1.64% Yield)

Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)

Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)

Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)

Season 2011: + 82.02 Units

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (October 9-11)

There are going to be two rounds of World Cup Qualifiers in October and the second round of those games begin on Sunday and are played through to Tuesday.

It will help start putting a shape to the Groups around the world as we begin to start getting nearer to knowing which nations will be participating in Russia in under two years time.

Most of the home nations here in the United Kingdom had a decent first round of Qualifiers in October, although Scotland will be disappointed with their home draw against Lithuania which leaves them two points short of where they should be. The Scots have back to back away Qualifiers over the next month which sees them visit Slovakia and England and you have to think they have find a surprise couple of results to get back on track with their goal of trying to snap their run without a major international tournament appearance.

All around the world there will be nations looking to bounce back or consolidate their positions over the next few days before we get back to domestic action next weekend.


The picks had a really poor opening to October, but results over the last three days has turned the month around. It is a long month and I am very keen to keep the momentum going from a strong September, but that will mean backing up the first set of World Cup Qualifiers in October with a successful second round.

Picks will come out over the next couple of days as the markets become settled out of the double header in the space of a few days.


Wales v Georgia Pick: After the successes at the Euro 2016 Finals, you just know all of the Welsh players and fans are desperate to find a way to get to the World Cup Finals in Russia. That would be the first appearance in the World Cup Finals since 1958 and Wales have made a very good start towards that goal having earned a big 2-2 draw at Austria a few days ago.

That means Wales are up to 4 points in the Group and they lead the way, but the top four teams have all earned 4 points from their opening two games in what is going to be a tight Group by the looks of things. It also means Wales cannot afford to miss out on the three points when they host Georgia who have already lost to Austria at home and at the Republic of Ireland just last week.

However the absence of Aaron Ramsey and Joe Allen is a big blow for the Wales creativity, although they do have a legitimate match winner in Gareth Bale. Those two absentees do make this game a little more difficult for Wales especially as Georgia have been a very tough team to overcome in their recent Qualifiers.

Georgia lost 1-0 at the Republic of Ireland, but even in the last Qualifiers they were only single goal margin losers in Ireland, Scotland and Germany. They will look to make life as difficult as possible for Wales, but I think the latter will do the same as Ireland and that is find a way to get to the three points.

Like I did a few days ago, I think there is every chance that Wales will have to settle for the same as the Republic of Ireland and win this one by a single goal margin. However a player like Bale gives Wales a chance to perhaps do a little better although this is a team that have rarely won home Qualifiers by more than two goals like they did against Moldova.

Prior to the 4-0 win over Moldova, Wales had not won a home Qualifier by more than two goals since 2007 when beating San Marino 3-0 so it is hard to see them blowing away a Georgia team that simply haven't been overrun much in recent Qualifiers. I do have to say that I think I respect Georgia enough to have a small interest in Wales to win this game, but perhaps have to settle for the same margin Ireland did a few days ago.


Macedonia v Italy Pick: There is no doubting that this World Cup Qualifying Group is going to be dominated by Italy and Spain and their 1-1 draw last week means both nations can concentrate on beating every other nation in the section to at least finish in the top two places.

With Albania having won both games in the Group, Italy will know they can't afford too many slip ups even if there was some disarray in the camp when Graziano Pelle was sent home. Pelle refused to shake hands with the staff after being substituted against Spain and was subsequently dismissed from the squad, but Italy still head to Macedonia as a healthy favourite to win.

They should be too good for a Macedonia team who were beaten 1-2 by Israel last week which means they have lost their last 5 home Qualifiers. They have conceded at least twice in 6 of their last 7 home Qualifiers and Macedonia are not going to win too many matches with those kind of stats behind them and that has to be an issue on Sunday.

Backing Italy to win Qualifiers isn't always the easiest thing to do but they know the importance of needing to win their games in this Group. Backing Italy to win by more than a single goal margin away from home is not going to make you rich, but they have the defence to keep Macedonia at bay and match the number that so many teams have managed here in recent Qualifiers.

Italy have won 6 of their last 11 away Qualifiers and 5 of those wins have come by at least two goals so I will back them here to cover the Asian Handicap against a Macedonia team that have struggled.


Kazakhstan v Romania Pick: With a Group containing Romania, Montenegro, Poland and Denmark, it is going to be key for the teams that want to make it to Russia to win the games against Armenia and Kazakhstan to do that.

Romania won 0-5 at Armenia on Saturday and they can back that up with another important three points here which may give them a slight edge over Poland who dropped two points here. Denmark play Montenegro later on Tuesday so Romania can put the pressure on those two rivals for the top two places in the Group by winning earlier in the day in Kazakhstan.

They should be able to do that against a team that had lost 4 home Qualifiers in a row before the 2-2 draw with Poland. Any confidence would have been severely dented by Kazakhstan's 5-0 loss in Montenegro and I think they will have a hard time staying with Romania who should be physically stronger than their opponents.

It won't be easy for Romania because this isn't a team blessed with goals, but they have managed to win 4 of their last 6 away Qualifiers and I think they can just about edge this contest for the important three points.


Slovakia v Scotland Pick: It might only be the third round of Qualifiers in the UEFA section out of ten, but it won't be lost on either Slovakia or Scotland the importance of this game. Both teams have had disappointing results to open their Qualifiers and will feel they are at least a couple points short of where they would have wanted to be going into this fixture.

Slovakia have been set as the favourite although they have been on the drift since Saturday following back to back Qualifier losses. They have now won just 3 of their last 9 home Qualifiers which has to be a big concern as they try and get back in the Group behind the big threats England and Slovenia who both hold a win over them.

For Scotland it is important they try and make up the two lost points against Lithuania when drawing with them 1-1 at home. The next two Qualifiers are both away from home at Slovakia and England, but they are a team that have showed some tremendous resolve on their travels and will feel a point is likely to be a good result for them.

It is likely to be a tight game considering Slovakia have not scored in their last 3 home Qualifiers and Scotland are trying to bounce back from a disappointing loss. I did consider backing Scotland with the start on the handicap as I don't think they will lose, but I am not sure the Scots have enough to win here.

Slovakia are better than their two results suggested and I think they will get off the board in this one, but it is Scotland who should be happiest leaving with a point and I will back the draw in this one.


Slovenia v England Pick: Even before the game against Malta, I thought England might have a really difficult test when they had to Slovenia and the results and performances on Saturday suggests that it will be the case. I am really surprised that England are as short a favourite to win here as they are, especially when you consider how strong Slovenia have been in home Qualifiers.

Yes, England did beat Slovenia twice in the Euro 2016 Qualifiers, but they needed a late goal to win here and were behind in both games. England were the superior team in their win in Slovenia, but this current side has a few questions to answer and the Wayne Rooney conundrum is surely having an affect on the entire squad.

Slovenia will know England have won 14 Qualifiers in a row and they have won 6 straight away Qualifiers which is why the layers have them as a very strong favourite to win here. However I think England showed they took their time to break down a ten man Slovakia team in their first away Qualifier and I think they have looked uncertain when teams have defended deep.

I don't doubt that Slovenia will look to do that and try and hit a vulnerable defence on the counter attack, but it is hard to see them winning the game. However they are strong enough to avoid a loss and getting the start on the Asian Handicap looks very appealing.

Southgate might have had a fairly easy afternoon at home against Malta, but this looks a much bigger test for England and I think they may come up short when it comes to the three points. A draw is not the worst result for England who would still be in a very strong position in the Group and I will take Slovenia with the start.


Bolivia v Ecuador Pick: The South American Qualifiers are generally good fun to watch with the nations in that Group all feeling more comfortable going forward than they are defending.

That could be the case on Tuesday when Bolivia host Ecuador in a game where both teams will be desperate for the three points. Bolivia have played well at home as they use the conditions to their advantage with visitors being sapped by playing in the altitude.

However they have conceded goals too and that makes Ecuador a threat who have scored a fair few goals, but have a habit of conceding too.

I do think both teams will likely score in this Qualifier and with the attacking intent that is expected to be on display, I can see them combining for another so backing yet another Ecuador game to finish with at least three goals is the call. Bolivia are good enough to play their part at home and the prices are just appealing enough to back goals being the outcome from this game.


Argentina v Paraguay Pick: This is one of the big World Cup Qualifiers taking place on Tuesday as Argentina try and put a gap between themselves and the teams chasing the top five places. Being without Lionel Messi is an issue, but Argentina have shown they have got goals in the team without him and you have to think they will be too strong for Paraguay this week.

The layers seem to think so with Argentina a big favourite to win this fixture, but I am not sure Paraguay should be disregarded so easily. Yes they were hammered in Uruguay last month, and they did suffer some big away losses in the last set of Qualifiers, but Argentina have not been blowing teams away at home.

Paraguay will look to defend deep and make life very difficult for Argentina and I think they can do that. A point would be more than a credible result for Paraguay and I think they will set out to do that, but eventually you have to feel that Argentina will have the quality in the final third to break them down.

I was contemplating picking Paraguay with a huge start on the Asian Handicap, but I think the most likely result is Argentina winning by a narrow margin. Backing the home team to win by a single goal margin looks a big price and worthy of a small interest.


Chile v Peru Pick: I really am struggling to determine what is going on with the Chile national team who have shown they are clearly one of the best in South America by winning the Copa America in 2015 and 2016. However they have not been able to produce that level of football in the World Cup Qualifiers and could be in a very bad position if they don't win this week.

Being 5 points behind the top 5 is manageable, but failing to win this game will see that gap increase and the pressure might just be insurmountable for Chile.

This is a good fixture for them having beaten Peru in 11 of their last 12 clashes including in 6 in a row at home. You can't ignore the fact that Peru have been a poor travelling team in South America with 24 losses in their last 25 World Cup Qualifiers and 17 of those losses have come by at least two goals.

Peru have lost all 4 away World Cup Qualifiers in this section to make it 8 straight losses away from home in these games and I think Chile can bounce back from some miserable losses. I think Peru could be a little tired from chasing the ball against Argentina a few days ago and Chile are far better than they have shown in their recent games.

With their dominance at home against Peru in recent games, I am backing Chile to win and cover the Asian Handicap this week.


Venezuela v Brazil Pick: Winning the Olympic Gold Medal might have inspired the Brazil senior squad who have been on a roll since then and can move into a commanding position in the Qualifying Group. They have been winning games by large margins and Brazil are now visiting Venezuela where they have proved to be too good in World Cup Qualifiers in the past.

Brazil don't just win here, but they win easily and have averaged over four goals per game in their 7 previous wins in Venezuela. With the home side conceding at least twice in their last 3 home World Cup Qualifiers and losing by at least two goals against Ecuador and Chile, it is a big ask for Venezuela to contain this Brazil team.

Obviously it is never easy to play away from home and winning games comfortably, but Brazil did beat Ecuador 0-3 last month. They are coming off a very easy win over Bolivia and I think the confidence is flowing through them.

Give Venezuela respect for earning a draw with Argentina here last month, but I will back Brazil to win by a couple of goals and cover the Asian Handicap on their current form and historical record in Merida.

MY PICKS: Wales to Win by One Goal @ 3.70 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Italy - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Romania @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
Slovakia-Scotland Draw @ 3.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Slovenia + 0.75 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bolivia-Ecuador Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Argentina to Win by One Goal @ 3.75 William Hill (1 Unit)
Chile - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Brazil - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.97 Bet Victor (2 Units)

October Update: 6-9, - 4.29 Units (29 Units Staked, - 14.79% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 73-66-3, + 26.17 Units (257 Units Staked, + 10.18% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

NFL Week 5 Picks 2016 (October 6-10)

The first month of the regular season has been very interesting with some teams massively underachieving and others looking stronger than most would have tipped for them.

Things will clear up over the next month from the contenders to those teams who have simply overachieved, while it is a big month for teams who have started badly and don't have too many losses they can afford.

Week 4 turned out to be a winning week for the picks after a poor start to the week, but I will take a winning week when I can get one. I do want one where I have a very, very strong week, but obviously winning every week from here to the end of the season will produce a winning result over the course of the season.

My picks from Week 5 will begin with the Sunday games because I wanted no part of the Arizona Cardinals visiting the San Francisco 49ers with injuries meaning it was Drew Stanton versus Blaine Gabbert at Quarter Back. There is a real chance that neither will be the starting Quarter Back for those teams the next time they come out to play with Carson Palmer likely to be out of the concussion protocol and Colin Kaepernick expected to take over from Gabbert to spark Chip Kelly's Offense which has stagnated over the last three weeks.

There are some big games in Week 5 and the return of Tom Brady for the New England Patriots will produce plenty of headlines too as I look for a fourth winning week in five to open the NFL 2016 season.


New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The New England Patriots will have Tom Brady back under Center on Sunday after his four game suspension came to a close. It didn't affect the team in the manner they would have expected as the Patriots finished 3-1 in those four games and now head to the terrible Cleveland Browns who are at 0-4.

The Browns have been so bad that some in Ohio actually think they would not be able to beat College Football Ohio State Buckeyes, although that is unlikely. They have had some competitive losses though and Cleveland might have been in a much better position if they had an ability to close games effectively in the Fourth Quarter rather than the production they have produced.

Cody Kessler is going to get another start at Quarter Back having started the season behind Robert Griffin III and Josh McCown, but injuries have knocked both of those players out of games. Kessler is a rookie but has played well for the most part, although a key has been the success that the Browns have had in running the ball.

Cleveland have averaged almost 150 yards per game at 5.7 yards per carry and they should be able to establish the run against the New England Defensive Line. However we all know that Bill Belichick is a genius when it comes to taking away the strength of an opponent and I think the Patriots will dare Kessler to beat them through the air.

There is a possibility that Kessler will be able to open up the running lanes with his arm as the New England Secondary have not been at their best. That might be down to the limited pressure they have gotten up front, although Rob Ninkovich is also back from suspension this week and can help give them another push to get after Kessler who is playing behind an Offensive Line that has been better opening running lanes than protecting the Quarter Back.

The Patriots are coming off a loss this week but the return of Brady is all that anyone will be talking about. They look one of the best teams in the AFC and Brady is hard to back against when he is in a 'bad mood' and you have to think he is going to have been itching to get back on the field and take out his anger on every opponent he will face.

Brady is going to be well protected, but the concern is that both Julian Edelman and Rob Gronkowski have been a little banged up. Martellus Bennett is a new weapon for Brady who should have time to make plays with his arm against a Cleveland team that haven't gotten to the Quarter Back effectively all season.

Tom Brady should also be able to hand the ball to LeGarrette Blount to churn out some yards on the ground and wear down Cleveland up front. Blount has been banged up too, but should be able to go and has a decent match up against the Browns who have to be trying to make sure Brady is not able to do what he wants when looking to throw the ball.

The layers do think New England will come out and put the foot down on Offense with Brady looking to show he is back in the only way he knows how. They are coming off a loss too so motivation should be high, but you can't discount the month without football that Brady has had to endure and it should take some time to get on the same page with some of his new weapons on the Offense.

New England were also only 1-2 against the spread coming off a loss as a favourite last season and they are 0-2 against the spread as the double digit road favourite in recent seasons. I do have to say Cleveland have been in a number of games and a better finish can make these points tell while Kessler and the running game have a chance of controlling the clock and not giving the Patriots enough possessions to cover this number.

Turnovers are a worry as this rookie Quarter Back takes on the Belichick Defense which can bamboozle the best out there. However this is still a lot of points and I will back the Cleveland Browns to cover in Week 5.


Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: At this point of the season there is no point sugarcoating things- the Chicago Bears (1-3) and the Indianapolis Colts (1-3) are two really bad teams. At least the Bears can say they got their first win on the board last week over Divisional rivals the Detroit Lions, but the Colts came up short in London against the winless Jacksonville Jaguars.

They also become the first team that won't take a 'bye week' following the trip to London and it will be interesting to see how Indianapolis cope in that spot. They can't afford another loss this week as they face the Bears back at home, but failing to protect Andrew Luck has been a big problem for Indianapolis.

You simply cannot allow your franchise Quarter Back to take the beating that Luck has been in the opening weeks of the 2016 season, especially when you think his 2015 season was ended early thanks to a lacerated kidney. Luck was under constant pressure last week against the Jaguars and is on pace for a 60 Sack season which is incredible when you take into consideration his ability to move the pocket.

The Offensive Line has been bad in pass protection which limits the big plays Luck can make, while his Receivers outside of TY Hilton have struggled for consistency. Indianapolis might at least benefit from the fact they are not going to be facing a team with the pass rush pressure of previous teams as Chicago have struggled to get to the Quarter Back. Unfortunately for the Colts, Chicago are coming in after limiting what Matthew Stafford could do with the Lions Offense having finally been able to get some pressure on the Quarter Back.

It has been tough for Luck as the Offensive Line have not only struggled in pass protection, but they have not been able to open consistent holes for Frank Gore which means the team are stuck in obvious passing situations. At least this week the Colts take on a Defense that had a big game last week, but who also have a number of injuries on that side of the ball.

Chicago will have to try and match some of the Offensive production that Andrew Luck will produce through his sheer talent alone. Brian Hoyer will get the start at Quarter Back again having had a decent outing against Detroit, although more problems with their Field Goal unit, particularly Connor Barth, has limited their output. Hoyer should be able to have a decent game this week too against a Colts team that cut two starting Defensive players this week and who have struggled against the pass all season.

Kevin White is missing with yet another injury for the Bears, but Hoyer should have Zach Miller overcome his injury issues having scored 3 Touchdowns already. The Quarter Back should also be backed up by Jordan Howard who had a strong game running the ball in the absence of Jeremy Langford and that should keep Chicago in third and manageable situations where Hoyer won't be asked to do too much and make the mistakes that have blighted him at times.

Both teams should have their chances moving the chains and that makes this spread look too big. No one can tell how the Colts will react playing the week after being in London as they are the first team in that spot since the games began to be played at Wembley Stadium, but at this moment they should not be favoured by this many points against any team.

This is not a great spot with two Divisional games to come after this one for Indianapolis too and they are just 3-5 against the spread as the home favourite since the beginning of the 2015 season. Even the cover against San Diego came in very fortunate circumstances and I think the Bears can be backed to keep this one close enough to cover.


Tennessee Titans @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Hurricane Matthew has been battering the East Coast of the United States over the last couple of days, but the NFL have announced that this game will go on as scheduled. It should still be a very windy day in Miami, but the majority of the storm front would have moved further up north although the conditions could make it a very difficult to throw the ball with consistency.

That might suit the Tennessee Titans who have one of the stronger rushing Offenses in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season. DeMarco Murray has rediscovered his form after a poor season with the Philadelphia Eagles and has helped the Titans average almost 130 yards per game on the ground with Quarter Back Marcus Mariota able to make some plays with his legs.

Mariota has been a little disappointing when it comes to throwing the ball though and that is where the Miami Defense have really struggled although the conditions might mean neither team is taking too many chances through the air. He should be using a few screens though because the money has been invested on the Miami Defensive Line and they have at least been able to slow the run somewhat.

The Dolphins are giving up almost 130 yards per game on the ground but they are doing that at 3.7 yards per carry and have shown they can at least limit the damage done on the ground. Unfortunately the Secondary troubles means they can't get off the field and might be worn down over the course of a game as the Defense struggles to prevent sustained drives being made against them.

With the team being behind more often than not, Miami have not really been able to get the rushing Offense going as they would want and instead have Ryan Tannehill throwing the ball too much. There is little doubt in my mind that Tannehill is not a serviceable Quarter Back at the NFL level with his mistakes being too much to overcome and his numbers much more to do with the new rules in the NFL than any actual skill he possesses.

Tannehill will at least be forced to rely on his Running Backs more than usual in the conditions and Jay Ajayi should be able to have some success. Miami have opened the running lanes for 4.2 yards per carry but have only averaged 77 yards per game as they have been forced to play catch up in New England and Cincinnati so have had to rely on throwing the ball.

I expect Miami to establish the run too and that should open things up for Tannehill to make some plays with his arm. He has two very good Receivers and Tannehill should have time to make plays with Tennessee struggling to get consistent pressure on the Quarter Back through the first four months of the season. That should mean the Dolphins can have success too, but the kicking game could be important on a day like this Sunday is expected to be and there doesn't look a lot between these teams.

Certainly not enough for Miami to be favoured by more than a Field Goal despite their crushing win over Tennessee here last season. This time it should be a shortened game with both running games eating the clock and I think the Titans have a chance for the upset outright.

The Dolphins are just 5-12 against the spread as the home favourite since Ryan Tannehill was drafted and I think I want to oppose them more than I have a lot of faith in Tennessee. I just can't ignore the fact that Miami have been outgained in every game they have played this season and the conditions might even the field enough with more faith in Murray running the ball for the Titans than Ajayi for the Dolphins. Again I will take the points in this game this week.


Washington Redskins @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: They might not play in the same Conference, but that won't mean there is less of a rivalry between the Baltimore Orioles (3-1) and the Washington Redskins (2-2). There isn't much travel time between these two teams and that means there is bragging rights at stake, plus the importance of this game cannot be lost on either team.

The Redskins have bounced back from their 0-2 start and rumours that the players were not happy with Quarter Back Kirk Cousins and they come into this one with back to back wins behind them. However you have to consider they have been actually outgained in both of their last two wins and I am not sure Washington are as good as their record might suggest.

Cousins has had two decent games for Washington since a horrific Interception against the Dallas Cowboys which effectively cost them that game. He has been helped by a strong running game, but things might be much more difficult this week against the Baltimore Ravens who have the the top ranked Defense in the NFL.

Matt Jones is unlikely to have the same running lanes in this one against the Baltimore Ravens Defensive Line which has only given up 80 yards per game on the ground. Keeping Washington in third and long will put the pressure on Cousins at Quarter Back who should have some time to make his plays, but who is throwing into a Secondary that have given up less than 180 passing yards per game in 2016.

Cousins has big targets, most notably Jordan Reed, but he has to look after the ball against this Secondary who have made a point of creating Interceptions as Washington will have to try and keep up with Baltimore.

The Ravens have not been happy with their own Offensive performances but this is a big chance to turn things around for them. Joe Flacco was critical of the way they failed to produce the big plays last week in a narrow loss to the Oakland Raiders, but this week the Quarter Back is facing a Secondary that have struggled outside of Josh Norman.

It could be a chance for Mike Wallace to stretch his legs and get behind a Secondary that have plenty of injuries and are allowing 280 passing yards per game. This week Flacco will also benefit from getting his first experience of playing with Kenneth Dixon in the regular season with the Running Back returning from an injury and a big threat as a pass catching Back coming out of the backfield.

Dixon is likely to take some carries off of Terrance West, but the latter had a really strong day against Oakland last week and should have another big showing in this one. The Redskins have not been able to slow the run effectively and have given up 133 yards per game on the ground at 4.9 yards per carry so both West and Dixon should help open up the big play for Flacco.

I was hoping that Baltimore might be a little more underrated this week having been beaten by Oakland and Washington coming in with back to back wins. They still look a little short as the favourite to win at home though and I think Baltimore are going to make some big plays that were missing last week and that should see their Defense take over the game and force Kirk Cousins into a couple of big mistakes.

It could develop into something of a shoot out between these teams, but I will look for the Ravens to make the big plays Defensively to lock the game out. I will back the Ravens to be one of the favourites to win and cover this week.


San Diego Chargers @ Oakland Raiders Pick: There won't be many teams after four weeks in the NFL who have actually scored more points than they have allowed, but are actually at 1-3 overall. One of those is the San Diego Chargers who have managed to find losses in games they should have won and more composure would have seen this team coming into the weekend at 4-0 instead.

This is a big game for the Chargers if they want to have any hope of making the Play Offs as they face Divisional rivals the Oakland Raiders who have a 3-1 record. With the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs rounding out this Division, San Diego can't afford to fall to 0-2 in the Division games having already blown a big lead at Arrowhead Stadium this season.

Despite the host of injuries on the Offensive side of the ball, San Diego still have one of the better Quarter Backs in the NFL in Philipp Rivers and he makes everyone better around him. He can make Receivers look better than they are and Rivers looks to have a very nice match up against the Oakland Raiders this weekend.

Rivers should have time to make his plays as Oakland have surprisingly struggled to get to the Quarter Back despite having Khalil Mack and investing in Bruce Irvin. They have also tried to use Free Agency to improve the Secondary, but Oakland are giving up 325 passing yards per game and you have to think Rivers is good enough to move the chains despite missing the likes of Keenan Allen from the line up.

Even if Rivers is not making all the throws, he should have some success giving the ball to Melvin Gordon as long as the Running Back doesn't make the costly mistakes of turning the ball over. It was turnovers which killed San Diego in their home loss to New Orleans last week, but Gordon has another good match up against the Raiders who gave up over 100 rushing yards to Terrance West last week.

While San Diego will be confident they can move the chains and score points, this could be yet another shoot out in which the Chargers are involved. That is because their own Defensive unit have struggled to contain teams, although they did restrict Drew Brees last week before mistakes meant they were trying to defend on their own goal line.

Derek Carr has been in fine form and has some big time Receivers on whom he can call and I think the Chargers have a tough time containing the passing game. They have struggled for much of the season and Carr is good enough to make the plays while also protecting himself with the speed in which he makes his throwing decision.

That ability has opened up the running lanes for Oakland although the San Diego Defensive Line has played the run very well. That might be more of an issue this week as they try to slow Oakland through the air and so the Raiders should be able to establish the run which brings in play-action passes to attack the Secondary.

The records of the two teams seem to be playing a big part in this spread and getting the hook with San Diego looks very difficult to ignore. The underdog has also gone 9-1 against the spread in this series between these Divisional rivals and the Chargers are 19-9 against the spread as the road underdog overall which becomes 10-2 against the spread when a road underdog at a Divisional rival.

You can't ignore the fact that Oakland have been outgained in every game they have played this season and are not used to being the home favourite as they have gone 0-3 against the spread in that spot over the last two seasons. The Raiders are improving, but San Diego have not been as bad as the 1-3 record suggests and I will take them with the points in what feels an underdog kind of week.


New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: At the start of the week, the spread came out with the New York Giants (2-2) briefly hitting over a Touchdown worth of points. That has since come back to the key number seven, but I still think the Giants can make a game of this on primetime when they visit the Green Bay Packers (2-1) who are coming off a bye week.

There are two Super Bowl winning Quarter Backs leading their teams this week on Sunday Night Football, but both have had to deal with questions. Aaron Rodgers at least silenced some of those with his performance in Green Bay's win over the Detroit Lions to move above 0.500 but he is still searching for a long awaited 300 day passing game, the last coming in the ninth game of the 2015 season.

Rodgers might need to get close to that mark to help the Packers win this one and he is facing a banged up Secondary having had another week to work Jordy Nelson back into the line up. With Randall Cobb, Richard Rodgers and DeVante Adams as other credible passing threats, Rodgers could have a huge game this week as a Quarter Back who loves playing in front of the national television cameras.

The other reason it will be down to Rodgers is that the New York Giants Defensive Line has actually played the run well and Eddie Lacy has still not looked completely up to speed. They have't always been able to get to the Quarter Back though even after signing Olivier Vernon from the Miami Dolphins, and that should mean Rodgers is able to make his plays from a clean enough pocket and downfield against this Secondary that have been banged up.

It will be up to Eli Manning to keep up with Rodgers but he has done that in the past with a big Play Off win at Lambeau Field most memorable. Manning has escaped some of the blame for his poor play in the loss to the Washington Redskins as the media have focused on Odell Beckham Jr and the fact he has perhaps not been at 100% mentally in games. This is still a star player though and OBJ might be ready to break out in the best manner possible by producing a big game on primetime.

There is a strong Receiving unit the Giants can trot out every week, but they have not had the balance they have wanted with their struggles to run the ball. Rashad Jennings looks set to be limited at best and Shane Vereen is a big loss as a safety valve for Manning coming out of the backfield, while they are up against a Defensive Line that haven't given up anything on the ground.

That has allowed the Green Bay pas rush to tee off on Quarter Backs and they have been able to pressure their opponent's Quarter Back all season. That has to be a concern for Manning in those obvious passing situations the Offense will be in because the Offensive Line struggled to give him much time against the Minnesota Vikings on Monday Night Football and the only reason Sacks didn't show up is because Manning kept throwing the ball away early.

It has the same effect of slowing down Offenses, but Manning is battling a Secondary which has struggled this season compared with Minnesota's which has locked down Offenses. Green Bay have allowed over 300 passing yards per game and Manning should be able to find OBJ, Victor Cruz and Sterling Shepard who are all very capable at Wide Receiver.

It should help the game develop into an exciting one but the chances of seeing both teams move the ball effectively makes the points appealing. I respect how well Aaron Rodgers has played in primetime and how well Green Bay have done coming out of a bye week, but the Giants might be underrated by their blow out loss to the Minnesota Vikings. I just don't think Green Bay can play the kind of Defense Minnesota did and the Giants have covered the last four times Manning and Rodgers have played one another.

I feel this is a lot of points in favour of the Giants and will take those this week having backed them to fail to cover on Monday Night Football in Minneapolis.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Chicago Bears + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Baltimore Ravens - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
New York Giants + 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 4: 5-5, + 0.26 Units (19 Units Staked, + 1.37% Yield)
Week 3: 2-3-1, - 2.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.70% Yield)
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)

Week 1: 4-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 8th)

The tournaments have reached the Semi Final stage this week and I have to say the last couple of days have been really poor for the tennis picks. Judging by my twitter feed, I am not the only one who has been struggling this week, but I am still in a position to get things turned around before we head to the Shanghai Masters.

This is the time of the season when players begin to focus on the remaining Ranking points in a bid to get into the elite eight of either Tour and a place in the Tour Finals. Things will definitely begin to feel a little clearer on the WTA side of things as their Tour Finals are now a little over two weeks from beginning so there really isn't a lot more places players can turn to earn the points to get into the Singapore tournament.

The Semi Final between Madison Keys and Johanna Konta is going to be huge in that regards on Saturday as the winner could pick up huge points here in Beijing- it is more important for Konta than Keys, but both players will be keen to give their all for a big win.

Saturday should be a very good day of tennis as the tournaments begin to wind down in Beijing and Tokyo.


Madison Keys - 1.5 games v Johanna Konta: The one element that is hard to ignore is the fact that Madison Keys had to spent almost three hours on court to beat the in form Petra Kvitova on Friday. She has less than twenty-four hours to get ready for this very big Semi Final against Johanna Konta who made short work of Shuai Zhang after giving up the first four games of that Quarter Final.

Physical tiredness at this time of the season is an issue after a long year on the Tour and I wonder how much Madison Keys has left after that tough encounter with Kvitova. Winning will have given her a boost in confidence, but Keys still needs a few more points to make sure she can reach Singapore and I like the fact that her serve can make life a little easier for herself.

The big forehand is a huge weapon and she definitely has an edge over Konta in that regards, although the British player has a decent serve of her own and also has the superior backhand. Konta was playing with real aggression towards the end of her match with Zhang in the Quarter Final and that is going to be important for her in this one because she can't give Keys the chance to wind up on her big shots.

I imagine this is going to be a close match, but Konta has shown she can be overpowered at times and Keys is certainly capable of doing that. Tiredness could be a factor after that win over Kvitova, but I think Keys has enough to play for to put together her game and come out with a 63, 57, 64 win.


Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I don't really rate Agnieszka Radwanska has some people do because I think she is a little more than a 'pusher' who just tries to outlast players with a little less consistency than she brings. That is the kind of match up that might work against someone like Elina Svitolina who is having a very big week in Beijing with some impressive wins behind her.

Neither player has dropped a set this week and both should be very fresh for this Semi Final having not been spending that long on the court. They have won matches impressively and so it should be a good match that both expect they can win.

I think the real key to the match is the ability Radwanska has to try and outlast players and I am not sure Svitolina can penetrate her defences consistently to break down the Pole. That has been a problem in their previous matches which have all been won by Radwanska and she has not dropped a set in the last couple of matches between them.

Svitolina is playing well enough to give Radwanska problems at times in this one, but I think the latter is capable of coming through those difficult moments. That might be enough for Radwanska to battle through to a 64, 63 win and a place in the Final in Beijing this week.


David Goffin + 2.5 games v Marin Cilic: There is still a chance for either Marin Cilic or David Goffin to get into the mix for a place in the World Tour Finals in London and winning the tournament in Tokyo is a big part of that. The winner of this Semi Final will be keeping their hopes alive before heading to Shanghai next week and this should be a really fascinating match when those motivations are in play.

The layers have tipped up Marin Cilic as the more likely winner and you can understand why they have done that. He is a former Grand Slam Champion who has plenty of aggression and a solid first serve which should give him a chance to win any match, while Cilic's returning game should find some joy from the David Goffin service games.

However you can't easily dismiss the fact that Goffin has won both of their matches played in 2016 and both times as a similar kind of underdog as he is going into this match. His own return game can punish the Cilic second serve while Goffin's movement can force Cilic to hit closer to the lines and force his forehand to break down at big moments.

In all honesty Cilic missed a host of chances in his loss to Goffin at Indian Wells back in March and taking those could see him turn the result around. Even with that in mind though, I do think Goffin can make the games he is being given count and find a way to at least cover in this one even in a losing effort and I am going to back him to do that.


Gael Monfils - 1.5 games v Nick Kyrgios: You are going to be a lucky person if you have a ticket to Semi Final day in Tokyo because I think both matches look like they could be excellent ones to watch. Nick Kyrgios and Gael Monfils are two of the bigger entertainers on the Tour and I think they are going to combine for some fine points when the rallies develop.

Both players will be looking to their first serve to set up the points in this one and the one who serves best is likely going to win the match. However that is where Gael Monfils has shown more consistency in recent months and I think the Frenchman is in a better place mentally which is going to give him the edge.

Monfils is still in a very good position to make the World Tour Finals for the first time in his career and winning this tournament will put him right on the brink of doing that. He will need to find a way to make sure he can frustrate Kyrgios by getting enough balls in play to extract errors and not allow the Australian to dictate behind his big serve.

It has been a good week for Kyrgios and he is dangerous when he is in the form he has displayed. That can see him use the momentum to go all the way to the title but I think Monfils will find a way to blunt his aggression and come through with a win and a cover in this second Semi Final.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 10-13, - 6.56 Units (46 Units Staked, - 14.26% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2016 (October 7th)

Thursday proved to be a really poor day for the tennis picks with all three I made coming back on the wrong side. That can happen and it has also meant a turn in the weekly results from a profit to a loss, although there is still time to get this turned around.

Hopefully Friday will be a much stronger day after the way Thursday went as the Quarter Final matches are played.


Grigor Dimitrov + 3.5 games v Rafael Nadal: This is a very interesting Quarter Final between two players who have something to prove in the final weeks of the 2016 season that can give them some momentum to take into the 2017 season. Both Grigor Dimitrov and Rafael Nadal will feel they should be achieving more than they have in 2016 and will be hoping a return to form and overcoming injuries makes 2017 a much more memorable season.

There is much motivation for both Dimitrov and Nadal going into this Quarter Final and I think the match is closer than the layers believe. Of course Nadal has a significant edge in the head to head having won all seven previous matches, but the last of those came twelve months ago and many of their matches have been competitive.

It is very important for Dimitrov to serve well as he won't want to be drawn into too many rallies where his one-handed backhand takes on the Nadal forehand. Over the years that proved to be the undoing of Roger Federer in matches against Nadal and the similar style of play does mean it is an area where Nadal can have some success.

Overall Dimitrov's game has to be close to his very best in this match to make it a close match, but he has been playing some solid tennis over the last few weeks. His manner of defeat against Andy Murray at the US Open is a concern, but Dimitrov has looked better in recent weeks and finally looks to be getting over the poor form that has been blighting his game for some time.

Nadal has been looking strong so far this week in Beijing but this is the biggest challenge he will have faced and I am still not convinced he is back to his very best. His opponent has been playing well enough to take a set in this one and that might be enough for Dimitrov to keep this close enough to stay within this number.


David Goffin - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: An injury prevented Kei Nishikori from being able to finish his match with Joao Sousa but the same thing I said about that match applies here. I made it clear that I think Joao Sousa is a little vulnerable whenever he plays matches against players like Nishikori and, in this case, David Goffin because his opponents look like they are the stronger players in the rallies.

With the first serve unlikely to provide too many easy points, Sousa has to try and out-rally these players and more often than not you would think someone like Goffin would be too good for him.

Their last match was very close, but Goffin had won two easy enough matches against him prior to that and the Belgian player is in good form this week with two impressive wins behind him. Sousa should be physically good to go having received the injury withdrawal through to the Quarter Final, but this is a player trying to end this inconsistent 2016 having lost early in a number of tournaments.

Sousa will have his moments against the Goffin serve too, but I think the latter will knuckle down at the big moments and come through with a 63, 64 win.


Gael Monfils - 2.5 games v Ivo Karlovic: There aren't too many players on the ATP Tour in better form than Gael Monfils when you put together his achievements in the summer and then at the US Open. He has looked very good this week in Tokyo as he makes his move towards a first appearance at the ATP World Tour Finals although this is a difficult match.

Monfils holds the head to head advantage over Ivo Karlovic, but there is no disguising how difficult it can be against the big serving Croatian. So much of the match is not on your own racquet and the key is making sure you remain mentally strong and are able to recognise the big moments when Karlovic looks vulnerable.

He has been in good form since Wimbledon but Karlovic has given up some chances of his own serve in this tournament although he has managed to put some returns together to make sure it hasn't cost him too many sets. Someone like Monfils is playing well enough to look after his own serve though and I like the Frenchman to cover this number.

One break may be enough for Monfils to do that and I think he can move into the Semi Final behind a 76, 64 win.


Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: This might be a blink and you miss it kind of match between Petra Kvitova and Madison Keys who are two of the biggest hitters on the WTA Tour. Both players have strong serves and heavy groundstrokes and the match is very much going to be about which of the two is able to get the first big strike in.

Both can do that behind their serve, but the form is most definitely pointing towards Kvitova who won the tournament in Wuhan and has brushed aside two opponents this week. That includes crushing Garbine Muguruza as Kvitova tries to keep alive her chances of playing in Singapore at the end of the month.

It won't be easy against Madison Keys who has a big first serve and has played well to get into the Quarter Final. She too is chasing a place in Singapore and the winner of this match might be going on to be the favourite to win the title and almost certainly make it to the WTA Finals at the end of the month.

While the Keys first serve is an incredible weapon, she has started slowly in matches and that won't cut it against Kvitova. Keys will also need to serve better than she has and I don't want to oppose Kvitova in the form she has been in over the last two weeks. There will be some big winners from both players, but I think Kvitova is in more consistent form and I can see her breaking the Keys serve late in the first set and then pulling through the second set with a 64, 63 win.


Daria Gavrilova + 2.5 games v Elina Svitolina: I am not sure where I stand with Elina Svitolina and what I am expecting of her through her career. There have been times I have watched and thought she is destined for the top, but others when I can't imagine how she ever reached the top 100 on the WTA Tour.

She has shown she can be a big match player with another win over a World Number 1 in 2016 when beating Angelique Kerber in the Third Round. Backing that up is the task for Svitolina who has failed to do that a few times in her career and now faces Daria Gavrilova who has won their last match.

That came in Cincinnati in August and the Australian only dropped four games in the match as Gavrilova dominated the Svitolina serve. She can take advantage of any emotions Svitolina may have from winning another big match in the last Round and Gavrilova has been playing well enough this week to give Svitolina plenty to think about.

The games being given to Gavrilova might not seem a lot, but I think she can win a set which will give her every chance of covering. The chances are that she will win that set with a couple of breaks of serve as Svitolina perhaps loses some focus, which is a negative about her game, and I like taking the games being given to the Australian.


Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: This is a match up that I thought Johanna Konta would enjoy when these players met in Wuhan and the British player didn't fail to cover this number. I think she can get the better of Shuai Zhang again in this Quarter Final in Beijing and once again I am going to back Konta to get the better of this number.

There were moments in the second set last week where Konta played a little too loosely behind her own serve which allowed Zhang to stay with her for a while. However she once again showed she has a clear edge when it comes to the serve and setting up her points compared with Zhang and I like the chances of Konta progressing in this one too.

You can't take anything away from Zhang who crushed Simona Halep in the Third Round, but Konta also had an impressive win when beating Karolina Pliskova. It has been some impressive serving from Zhang which has taken her through the draw this week, but she has struggled when trying to cope with the heavy shots Konta can produce from both sides of the court.

This could be a very big week for Konta who is trying to get into the WTA Finals elite eight and I think she enjoys the match up with Zhang. I am expecting her to be too strong for her for the third time in 2016 and I like Konta finding a way to a 64, 63 win in this one.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov + 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
David Goffin - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Gael Monfils - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Daria Gavrilova + 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 8-9, - 2.58 Units (34 Units Staked, - 7.59% Yield)