We have reached the Quarter Final stage at the tournaments being played this week and the following are my picks from the Friday action.
Richard Gasquet - 3.5 games v Julien Benneteau: There is no doubt that Julien Benneteau is a player that can cause Richard Gasquet plenty of problems in a match, but I would definitely favour the higher ranked Frenchman to have just a little too much for him in a straight sets win.
Gasquet beat Gael Monfils yesterday to get into this Quarter Final and has to be the favourite to come through the 'easier' half of the draw. He played well against Monfils and created plenty of chances to break serve and should have won even easier than the final set score indicated.
My issue is that Benneteau has always been an effective indoor hard court player, but I think Gasquet has opened 2013 in a good place mentally and that is what will see him over the hump.
Over the last couple of seasons, Gasquet has also seemed very confident against players ranked below him and I think that is another edge for him in this match, while beating Benneteau in their only 2 professional matches without dropping a set will just build the belief.
I wouldn't be surprised to see a 6-3, 6-4 win for Gasquet and I had thought this match would have a 4.5 game spread so taking the 3.5 game spread at odds against is the pick.
Jurgen Melzer v Lukas Rosol: Jurgen Melzer let me down yesterday having dropped the opening set 6-1 to Somdev Devvarman before winning the match, but I am still not sure why this has been set as a 'pick em' match.
Lukas Rosol will always be remembered for a fantastic performance to beat Rafael Nadal at Wimbledon in 2012, but he has shown little else to think he is going to make significant strides up the rankings from his current position of 70. He has also shown little for indoor hard court tennis in his career even if he did win a Challenger on the surface last season.
The Czech player hasn't faced stellar opposition so far this week in Zagreb either and while Jurgen Melzer is definitely on a slide down the rankings, the Austrian remains significantly tough to beat on these types of courts.
I am going to back Melzer with the belief that his performance yesterday in the first set could be down to the change in surface from the Davis Cup tie in Kazakhstan and that a player that won an ATP Tour title on the indoor hard courts last season is still good enough to beat Rosol.
Mikhail Youzhny - 2.5 games v Ivan Dodig: I just feel Ivan Dodig might be rated a tad too highly for this match and that Mikhail Youzhny has the craftiness to keep alive his defence of his title from a year ago.
Actually, both of these players are former winners of the event and Dodig has actually been playing well this week in his wins over Benjamin Becker and Ivo Karlovic. While the indoor hard courts certainly suit Dodig's game to the ground, I just feel he will have to hit a lot of flashy shots to knock off Youzhny who can still play very solid tennis.
The problem for Youzhny is that he can throw in a couple of shocking performances which does temper my enthusiasm for this pick. However, I do feel the Russian can create chances and it will come down to being a little more efficient than he was when beating Igor Sijsling in the Second Round.
If Youzhny is a little more clinical, he should be able to knock Dodig off in a tight two setter.
Marin Cilic - 5.5 games v Blaz Kavcic: The first issue for Blaz Kavcic to overcome is putting the win over Marcos Baghdatis to the back of his mind. The second will be facing a partisan crowd that will be cheering on their Croatian star. The third is facing the Number 1 seeded Marin Cilic who is 14-1 at this event and looking to win it for a third time.
It all bodes for a tough day for Kavcic, especially as Cilic is one of the most improved return of servers that I have seen on the Tour over the last year. He seems to be playing with a lot more aggression on the return and it will be tough for Kavcic to hold him off in this one as far as I am concerned.
I also think Kavcic has come up short when playing some of the really good players on the Tour and while the win over Baghdatis is impressive, playing someone like Cilic is a step up in class even compared with the enigmatic Cypriot.
I just believe that Cilic will create a lot of chances on the Kavcic serve and, if he is serving as effectively as he was in his Second Round match, I think Cilic should be able to hang on enough service games to cover this spread.
Jerzy Janowicz disposed of Kavcic fairly comfortably on an indoor hard court in a Davis Cup tie last weekend and I wouldn't be surprised if Cilic gets through with a 6-3, 6-3 win or perhaps the same scoreline he beat Grega Zemlja (6-2, 6-3) in the Second Round.
Albert Ramos - 1.5 games v Horacio Zaballos: I had factored Albert Ramos to be a 3.5 game favourite in this one and am a little surprised that the layers think the match will be a lot closer than I do.
Horacio Zaballos should be very confident having won a Challenger tournament to open the 2013 season while finishing 2012 on back to back tournament wins in Challenger tournaments that were played on the clay courts. However, he hasn't really transferred that form to the main ATP events and even the two matches he has won this week have been against players that are not as good as the one he plays today.
While Albert Ramos isn't much higher in the rankings, he has the better wins this week in my opinion and he has also been mixing at the higher level than Challenger events that Zaballos has been taking part in.
This could be close, but I think Ramos shows a little more composure at the key time and will come through 7-6, 6-4.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 3.5 Games @ 2.07 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jurgen Melzer @ 1.94 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Mikhail Youzhny - 2.5 Games @ 1.96 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Albert Ramos - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-3, - 0.68 Units (9 Units Staked, - 7.56% Yield)
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Friday, 8 February 2013
Thursday, 7 February 2013
Tennis Picks (February 7th)
The big news yesterday was clearly the return of Rafael Nadal to play his first Singles match since Wimbledon last year and it might have been slightly concerning for the Spaniard when he lost 10 of the first 11 points played and found himself 0-2, 0-30 down.
That was as bad as it got for Nadal as I am guessing nervousness took hold of him for a while to open that match, understandably of course, but he was commanding after that start.
It doesn't say much to be honest as he is playing in a tournament where I believe one, maybe two, players would have been seeded at a Grand Slam event. Even the exit of Juan Monaco has made it a lot easier for Nadal and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the title home, although I won't be ready to proclaim the Spaniard capable of winning a big event until I see him perform at Indian Wells and Miami next month.
Michael Llodra v Janko Tipsarevic: Michael Llodra continues to play his best tennis on the fast indoor hard courts and I think he may just surprise the Number 2 seeded Janko Tipsarevic who is coming off a heel injury.
That forced Tipsarevic to retire at the Australian Open and also caused him to miss Serbia's Davis Cup tie against Belgium, so there is no real telling how comfortable he is feeling.
Llodra does save his best tennis for his home crowd at these smaller events and will look back at beating Tipsarevic at the indoor hard court event held in Marseille. With the conditions being similar, I think a small interest in him picking up the win is warranted.
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Somdev Devvarman: There is no doubt that the best of Jurgen Melzer is behind the Austrian these days, but he remains a very dangerous player on the indoor hard courts and that should be enough to see off the Somdev Devvarman threat.
Melzer reached the Quarter Final at this event last season and also won a title on the indoor hard courts of Memphis while reaching the Semi Final in Valencia. In what was an otherwise disappointing season, Melzer has shown the last remnants of his game are best suited to these quicker surfaces.
He is also facing a player that has never really produced deep runs on the indoor hard courts and one that is still trying to feel his way back onto the Tour having missed the first six months of last season. Devvarman doesn't have much match practice under his belt just yet and I think Melzer will be too good for him when this one is over.
MY PICKS: Michael Llodra @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0.12 Units (6 Units Staked, + 0.02% Yield)
That was as bad as it got for Nadal as I am guessing nervousness took hold of him for a while to open that match, understandably of course, but he was commanding after that start.
It doesn't say much to be honest as he is playing in a tournament where I believe one, maybe two, players would have been seeded at a Grand Slam event. Even the exit of Juan Monaco has made it a lot easier for Nadal and I wouldn't be surprised if he takes the title home, although I won't be ready to proclaim the Spaniard capable of winning a big event until I see him perform at Indian Wells and Miami next month.
Michael Llodra v Janko Tipsarevic: Michael Llodra continues to play his best tennis on the fast indoor hard courts and I think he may just surprise the Number 2 seeded Janko Tipsarevic who is coming off a heel injury.
That forced Tipsarevic to retire at the Australian Open and also caused him to miss Serbia's Davis Cup tie against Belgium, so there is no real telling how comfortable he is feeling.
Llodra does save his best tennis for his home crowd at these smaller events and will look back at beating Tipsarevic at the indoor hard court event held in Marseille. With the conditions being similar, I think a small interest in him picking up the win is warranted.
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 games v Somdev Devvarman: There is no doubt that the best of Jurgen Melzer is behind the Austrian these days, but he remains a very dangerous player on the indoor hard courts and that should be enough to see off the Somdev Devvarman threat.
Melzer reached the Quarter Final at this event last season and also won a title on the indoor hard courts of Memphis while reaching the Semi Final in Valencia. In what was an otherwise disappointing season, Melzer has shown the last remnants of his game are best suited to these quicker surfaces.
He is also facing a player that has never really produced deep runs on the indoor hard courts and one that is still trying to feel his way back onto the Tour having missed the first six months of last season. Devvarman doesn't have much match practice under his belt just yet and I think Melzer will be too good for him when this one is over.
MY PICKS: Michael Llodra @ 2.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Jurgen Melzer - 2.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, + 0.12 Units (6 Units Staked, + 0.02% Yield)
Wednesday, 6 February 2013
Tennis Picks (February 6th)
The outright picks had one piece of good fortune during the week with Tomas Berdych pulling out of the tournament at Montpellier, although Richard Gasquet will still have to take out Gael Monfils in his first match to get himself going.
Other big news from the tennis world was the return of Rafael Nadal who played his first match back on Tour when he took part in a Doubles match with Juan Monaco, one the pair won comfortably. I haven't seen how he looked just yet, but won't have long to wait as his first Singles match is scheduled for today.
I am not expecting huge things from Nadal, but we don't have long to wait to see whether the Spaniard is going to be back fighting for the Grand Slams sooner, later or never at all.
Nikolay Davydenko - 3.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: Tomas Berdych's pull out from the tournament in Montpellier meant Nikolay Davydenko was given a bye in the First Round, although he is playing against the same opponent he would have met in that Round.
Davydenko is not the same player of three years ago, but he did show some solid signs at Doha to open the season and a defeat to Roger Federer at the Australian Open is hardly something that should be seen as a negative. He seems to be a little happier with his own surroundings and meets a player in Jarkko Nieminen that he has dominated in recent meetings.
Since winning the first two matches between the players, Nieminen has now lost four in a row and won just one set in that run. The Finn is a solid player, but he doesn't have the same groundstrokes as Davydenko and I just feel the Russian will be too strong for him.
Kenny De Scheppers + 2.5 games v Michael Llodra: This has all the makings of a close match, although I am wary that Michael Llodra seems to save his best tennis for when he is playing in front of his home support.
Anyone who hasn't seen Kenny De Scheppers before will be surprised- he is a monster of a man that has a booming serve which should be very effective on the indoor hard courts. Facing Michael Llodra is a tough test as the Frenchman is also very effective on these courts, but the Belgian won a meeting on the indoor hard courts against Llodra last season.
I would not be surprised if we see at least two tie-breaks in this one and that may be enough to help De Scheppers cover the spread and that is why I am taking the games in this one. As long as De Scheppers hasn't left too much on the court when he was beaten in the final Qualifying Round, I think he can at least push Llodra in this one.
Ivan Dodig - 2.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Ivan Dodig comes back to Croatia having been involved in the Davis Cup team that were beaten by Italy, but he will feel he is in much more comfortable surroundings with the home support at an event that he won a couple of seasons ago.
He should have enough in his game to take care of Benjamin Becker who is a solid competitor that seems to throw in at least one bad service game per set which usually is the reason why he hasn't become a regular at the back end of tournaments.
It isn't a stretch to say Becker is more famous for being the player that ended Andre Agassi's professional career than for anything else and I think he may struggle against a player that can go through incredible hot streaks of hitting like Dodig can.
Both players have decent serves that should work well on the indoor hard court, but I think the Croatian will end up coming through 7-6, 6-4.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: There is no doubt that Mikhail Youzhny is on the downward curve of his career, but I am expecting the defending Champion to be too strong for Igor Sijsling here in this one.
Sijsling is not going to be an easy opponent to knock off for Youzhny, but I do think the Russian is a little too solid, even at this stage of his career.
Neither has made waves to open up 2013, but I just feel Youzhny still takes care of those players he is expected to beat and I think it'll be more of the same in this one. One set is likely to be incredibly close, but I like Youzhny finding a way through and recording a 7-5, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Nikolay Davydenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Kenny De Scheppers + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ivan Dodig - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Other big news from the tennis world was the return of Rafael Nadal who played his first match back on Tour when he took part in a Doubles match with Juan Monaco, one the pair won comfortably. I haven't seen how he looked just yet, but won't have long to wait as his first Singles match is scheduled for today.
I am not expecting huge things from Nadal, but we don't have long to wait to see whether the Spaniard is going to be back fighting for the Grand Slams sooner, later or never at all.
Nikolay Davydenko - 3.5 games v Jarkko Nieminen: Tomas Berdych's pull out from the tournament in Montpellier meant Nikolay Davydenko was given a bye in the First Round, although he is playing against the same opponent he would have met in that Round.
Davydenko is not the same player of three years ago, but he did show some solid signs at Doha to open the season and a defeat to Roger Federer at the Australian Open is hardly something that should be seen as a negative. He seems to be a little happier with his own surroundings and meets a player in Jarkko Nieminen that he has dominated in recent meetings.
Since winning the first two matches between the players, Nieminen has now lost four in a row and won just one set in that run. The Finn is a solid player, but he doesn't have the same groundstrokes as Davydenko and I just feel the Russian will be too strong for him.
Kenny De Scheppers + 2.5 games v Michael Llodra: This has all the makings of a close match, although I am wary that Michael Llodra seems to save his best tennis for when he is playing in front of his home support.
Anyone who hasn't seen Kenny De Scheppers before will be surprised- he is a monster of a man that has a booming serve which should be very effective on the indoor hard courts. Facing Michael Llodra is a tough test as the Frenchman is also very effective on these courts, but the Belgian won a meeting on the indoor hard courts against Llodra last season.
I would not be surprised if we see at least two tie-breaks in this one and that may be enough to help De Scheppers cover the spread and that is why I am taking the games in this one. As long as De Scheppers hasn't left too much on the court when he was beaten in the final Qualifying Round, I think he can at least push Llodra in this one.
Ivan Dodig - 2.5 games v Benjamin Becker: Ivan Dodig comes back to Croatia having been involved in the Davis Cup team that were beaten by Italy, but he will feel he is in much more comfortable surroundings with the home support at an event that he won a couple of seasons ago.
He should have enough in his game to take care of Benjamin Becker who is a solid competitor that seems to throw in at least one bad service game per set which usually is the reason why he hasn't become a regular at the back end of tournaments.
It isn't a stretch to say Becker is more famous for being the player that ended Andre Agassi's professional career than for anything else and I think he may struggle against a player that can go through incredible hot streaks of hitting like Dodig can.
Both players have decent serves that should work well on the indoor hard court, but I think the Croatian will end up coming through 7-6, 6-4.
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 games v Igor Sijsling: There is no doubt that Mikhail Youzhny is on the downward curve of his career, but I am expecting the defending Champion to be too strong for Igor Sijsling here in this one.
Sijsling is not going to be an easy opponent to knock off for Youzhny, but I do think the Russian is a little too solid, even at this stage of his career.
Neither has made waves to open up 2013, but I just feel Youzhny still takes care of those players he is expected to beat and I think it'll be more of the same in this one. One set is likely to be incredibly close, but I like Youzhny finding a way through and recording a 7-5, 6-4 win.
MY PICKS: Nikolay Davydenko - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Kenny De Scheppers + 2.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Ivan Dodig - 2.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Mikhail Youzhny - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Sunday, 3 February 2013
Tennis Outright Picks (February 4-10)
After the first Grand Slam of the season, the ATP Tour took a week break for the First Round of the Davis Cup, which means we have three tournaments taking place this week in France, Croatia and Chile.
You can read a few of my thoughts on Andy Murray and the new up and coming WTA players after the Australian Open here
The big news is clearly the return of Rafa Nadal who has been given a Wild Card spot at the tournament in Chile- he has a bye in the First Round before we get to see the former World Number 1 play his first match since Wimbledon in June 2012. It is going to be very interesting to see how Nadal does as he takes in the South American clay court swing with stops in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil planned along with this one in Chile, but you have to believe he is ready.
Of course, Nadal has said the plan is not winning tournaments, but getting matches under his belt in preparation for the rest of the season, but playing on his favourite surface is going to be intimidating for anyone facing him.
Other top ten players in action this week include Tomas Berdych, Janko Tipsarevic and Richard Gasquet, all of whom are taking in the action in France on an indoor hard court.
ATP Open Sud de France (Montpellier)
This is the tournament with most of the big names taking part this week and it follows on the heels on Davis Cup action for a few of the players.
It is said Davis Cup action that has me thinking Tomas Berdych, the number 1 seed and the reigning defending Champion, is far too short in the market to be considered for retaining his title. Berdych was involved in the epic 7 hour Doubles match on Saturday and then had to negotiate a 4 hour win over Stanislas Wawrinka on Sunday and even getting a bye into the Second Round may be enough for him to recover health to win through the tournament.
I have also ruled out the number 2 seeded Janko Tipsarevic from my selections as he is just recovering from a heel injury that forced him to retire at the Australian Open and miss the Serbia Davis Cup tie and there is no telling whether he truly is ready to go deep into a tournament just yet.
Instead, I am going for a small interest in Richard Gasquet to come through a tough top half of the tournament and win this event for a second time after previously being a winner when it was held in Lyon.
Gasquet has started the 2013 season in pretty good form and already has a tournament win to his name in Doha. However, he has potentially the toughest of Second Round challenges in the form of Gael Monfils, but if Gasquet can negotiate that, he will have a real chance of going all the way. The Frenchman also has a winning record against Berdych and could make the home fans very happy next Sunday.
ATP PBZ Zagreb
This is a tournament that had been won three years in a row by a Croatian before Mikhail Youzhny took home the title last season, but I do think we may revert to type this season.
Marin Cilic had won the event back to back in 2009 and 2010 and I think he does look the stand out player at the tournament this season and I can see him winning for the third time off the back of a couple of tough Davis Cup wins for his country.
The number 1 seed has a bye through to the Second Round, but I don't think there are too many players that he would fear on his way to the Final with the likes of Marcos Baghdatis and defending Champion Mikhail Youzhny the expected opponents.
Even the other half of the draw doesn't really have the players that should be able to beat Cilic when he is playing his best so I'll take a small interest in the Croatian winning his home tournament for the third time.
I have decided to take a watching brief at the tournament in Chile as I want to see Rafa Nadal in action- while there are some good players on the other side of the draw, I think it is actually tougher finding out which one will get through, although I guess Juan Monaco would be the call.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet @ 7.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic @ 3.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
You can read a few of my thoughts on Andy Murray and the new up and coming WTA players after the Australian Open here
The big news is clearly the return of Rafa Nadal who has been given a Wild Card spot at the tournament in Chile- he has a bye in the First Round before we get to see the former World Number 1 play his first match since Wimbledon in June 2012. It is going to be very interesting to see how Nadal does as he takes in the South American clay court swing with stops in Argentina, Mexico and Brazil planned along with this one in Chile, but you have to believe he is ready.
Of course, Nadal has said the plan is not winning tournaments, but getting matches under his belt in preparation for the rest of the season, but playing on his favourite surface is going to be intimidating for anyone facing him.
Other top ten players in action this week include Tomas Berdych, Janko Tipsarevic and Richard Gasquet, all of whom are taking in the action in France on an indoor hard court.
ATP Open Sud de France (Montpellier)
This is the tournament with most of the big names taking part this week and it follows on the heels on Davis Cup action for a few of the players.
It is said Davis Cup action that has me thinking Tomas Berdych, the number 1 seed and the reigning defending Champion, is far too short in the market to be considered for retaining his title. Berdych was involved in the epic 7 hour Doubles match on Saturday and then had to negotiate a 4 hour win over Stanislas Wawrinka on Sunday and even getting a bye into the Second Round may be enough for him to recover health to win through the tournament.
I have also ruled out the number 2 seeded Janko Tipsarevic from my selections as he is just recovering from a heel injury that forced him to retire at the Australian Open and miss the Serbia Davis Cup tie and there is no telling whether he truly is ready to go deep into a tournament just yet.
Instead, I am going for a small interest in Richard Gasquet to come through a tough top half of the tournament and win this event for a second time after previously being a winner when it was held in Lyon.
Gasquet has started the 2013 season in pretty good form and already has a tournament win to his name in Doha. However, he has potentially the toughest of Second Round challenges in the form of Gael Monfils, but if Gasquet can negotiate that, he will have a real chance of going all the way. The Frenchman also has a winning record against Berdych and could make the home fans very happy next Sunday.
ATP PBZ Zagreb
This is a tournament that had been won three years in a row by a Croatian before Mikhail Youzhny took home the title last season, but I do think we may revert to type this season.
Marin Cilic had won the event back to back in 2009 and 2010 and I think he does look the stand out player at the tournament this season and I can see him winning for the third time off the back of a couple of tough Davis Cup wins for his country.
The number 1 seed has a bye through to the Second Round, but I don't think there are too many players that he would fear on his way to the Final with the likes of Marcos Baghdatis and defending Champion Mikhail Youzhny the expected opponents.
Even the other half of the draw doesn't really have the players that should be able to beat Cilic when he is playing his best so I'll take a small interest in the Croatian winning his home tournament for the third time.
I have decided to take a watching brief at the tournament in Chile as I want to see Rafa Nadal in action- while there are some good players on the other side of the draw, I think it is actually tougher finding out which one will get through, although I guess Juan Monaco would be the call.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet @ 7.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Marin Cilic @ 3.75 Stan James (1 Unit)
Australian Open 2013 Recap
The first Grand Slam of the season finished less than a week ago and it has already given us a taste of what is to come as far as I am concerned. Some things haven't changed in the last twelve months with both the defending Champions retaining their titles, but there were some breakthrough performances and it does whet the appetite for the coming season.
In terms of the tournament from the picks point of view, it was the worst Grand Slam performance since this blog has been started and am hoping that isn't the start of things to come. It could have been a lot worse if it hadn't been for the final few days of the tournament with winning picks from both the Women's and Men's Finals.
Andy Murray is the second best player in the World, but winning another Grand Slam won't come easy to him: I said at the US Open that I wouldn't have expected Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic if he had played the second Semi Final as the scheduling at that Grand Slam for the Men's tournament have always put the winner of the second Semi Final in a tough spot.
Before I go on, I don't want anyone thinking I don't like Andy Murray... In fact, I am a big fan of the Scot.
But I do think there is something still not quite right with his performances to add another Grand Slam to his name, especially not with the upcoming return of Rafael Nadal.
The problem I have with Murray is that out of the top four players, he is the one that seems to have a really 'low' period in the big matches, a period when he seems to fall away. While Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer are a lot more consistent with their level, Murray does seem to lapse and this why some of his Grand Slam defeats haven't been the heartbreaking losses that the likes of Federer have suffered, but more a fall away.
I know some will blame his body breaking down at a critical moment, but I am not buying that, nor am I buying the fact that he had to play the second Semi Final as there is still a day rest and he had been in a 'short' five-setter.
As I say, Murray is still the second best player in the World in my opinion, and his lapses won't affect him in the majority of tournaments he plays, but winning a Grand Slam with that still happening is unlikely to happen twice, barring real scheduling help.
New breed of players on the WTA Tour: The Woman's game has evolved in recent years into bringing a lot of power onto the Tour and that has meant that players are making their big breakthrough as they get older and the teenage sensations are likely a thing of the past.
However, the performances of Heather Watson, Laura Robson and Sloane Stephens has shown that there are some very good players coming up as the Woman's game is being replenished. The veterans like Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams remain at the top of the game, while Na Li had another sensational tournament, but the youngsters are starting to make inroads.
The big question is which of the trio I mentioned is going to win a Grand Slam tournament? I think Stephens and Robson will find a way to win one of the Majors, but I am not sure Heather Watson will be able to avoid playing someone that will eventually be strong enough and consistent enough to knock her over before she completes a Major win.
If I was going to compare the players with some of the top ones in the World, I would say Stephens is a little like Victoria Azarenka (I don't mean she will definitely reach that level, but her game is similar), Robson reminds me of Petra Kvitova and Watson could perhaps have a career like Caroline Wozniacki.
However, these players are young and development is still the key for them.
Serena Williams is still the best female player on Tour, but can be vulnerable in Grand Slam tournaments: Over the last 14 months, Serena Williams has been pretty much the favourite for every Grand Slam tournament she has played and rightly so.
However, the Australian Open proved yet again that Serena plays one poor match a tournament and thus is likely going to be too short for the majority of occasions when she is priced at less than 2.20 to win a tournament.
Over the last 5 Grand Slams, Ekaterina Makarova, Virginie Razzano and now Sloane Stephens have been able to do enough to knock out Serena, while Jie Zheng pushed her all the way at Wimbledon last year.
That should be a bit of caution for those that like the American in the outright markets going forward, particularly at her worst Major which is the French Open.
Australian Open Final: 18-26, - 8.59 Units (87 Units Staked, - 9.87% Yield)
Season 2013: - 2.62 Units (133 Units Staked, - 1.97% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
In terms of the tournament from the picks point of view, it was the worst Grand Slam performance since this blog has been started and am hoping that isn't the start of things to come. It could have been a lot worse if it hadn't been for the final few days of the tournament with winning picks from both the Women's and Men's Finals.
Andy Murray is the second best player in the World, but winning another Grand Slam won't come easy to him: I said at the US Open that I wouldn't have expected Andy Murray to beat Novak Djokovic if he had played the second Semi Final as the scheduling at that Grand Slam for the Men's tournament have always put the winner of the second Semi Final in a tough spot.
Before I go on, I don't want anyone thinking I don't like Andy Murray... In fact, I am a big fan of the Scot.
But I do think there is something still not quite right with his performances to add another Grand Slam to his name, especially not with the upcoming return of Rafael Nadal.
The problem I have with Murray is that out of the top four players, he is the one that seems to have a really 'low' period in the big matches, a period when he seems to fall away. While Novak Djokovic, Nadal and Roger Federer are a lot more consistent with their level, Murray does seem to lapse and this why some of his Grand Slam defeats haven't been the heartbreaking losses that the likes of Federer have suffered, but more a fall away.
I know some will blame his body breaking down at a critical moment, but I am not buying that, nor am I buying the fact that he had to play the second Semi Final as there is still a day rest and he had been in a 'short' five-setter.
As I say, Murray is still the second best player in the World in my opinion, and his lapses won't affect him in the majority of tournaments he plays, but winning a Grand Slam with that still happening is unlikely to happen twice, barring real scheduling help.
New breed of players on the WTA Tour: The Woman's game has evolved in recent years into bringing a lot of power onto the Tour and that has meant that players are making their big breakthrough as they get older and the teenage sensations are likely a thing of the past.
However, the performances of Heather Watson, Laura Robson and Sloane Stephens has shown that there are some very good players coming up as the Woman's game is being replenished. The veterans like Maria Sharapova and Serena Williams remain at the top of the game, while Na Li had another sensational tournament, but the youngsters are starting to make inroads.
The big question is which of the trio I mentioned is going to win a Grand Slam tournament? I think Stephens and Robson will find a way to win one of the Majors, but I am not sure Heather Watson will be able to avoid playing someone that will eventually be strong enough and consistent enough to knock her over before she completes a Major win.
If I was going to compare the players with some of the top ones in the World, I would say Stephens is a little like Victoria Azarenka (I don't mean she will definitely reach that level, but her game is similar), Robson reminds me of Petra Kvitova and Watson could perhaps have a career like Caroline Wozniacki.
However, these players are young and development is still the key for them.
Serena Williams is still the best female player on Tour, but can be vulnerable in Grand Slam tournaments: Over the last 14 months, Serena Williams has been pretty much the favourite for every Grand Slam tournament she has played and rightly so.
However, the Australian Open proved yet again that Serena plays one poor match a tournament and thus is likely going to be too short for the majority of occasions when she is priced at less than 2.20 to win a tournament.
Over the last 5 Grand Slams, Ekaterina Makarova, Virginie Razzano and now Sloane Stephens have been able to do enough to knock out Serena, while Jie Zheng pushed her all the way at Wimbledon last year.
That should be a bit of caution for those that like the American in the outright markets going forward, particularly at her worst Major which is the French Open.
Australian Open Final: 18-26, - 8.59 Units (87 Units Staked, - 9.87% Yield)
Season 2013: - 2.62 Units (133 Units Staked, - 1.97% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
NFL Super Bowl XLVIII Pick (February 3 2013)
It is almost time to close the NFL season as everybody is getting ready to watch the Baltimore Ravens take on the San Francisco 49ers in New Orleans.
The season as a whole looked to be going pretty well for me until Week 12-17 when I couldn't pick the winner in a one horse race and it was those weeks that have effectively ensure a losing season. However, thanks to a very effective Play Off campaign, the season will at least end of a more positive note and take a large chunk out of the losses that were incurred, particularly those in Week 14.
Anyway, below you can see my breakdown of the big game and my pick for the winner of the NFL this season.
Baltimore Ravens v San Francisco 49ers Pick: Both of these teams have come in with plenty of momentum and this is a game that has had me going back and forth over the last couple of weeks with my pick initially going to be the San Francisco 49ers, but now I have changed my mind and I like Baltimore with the points in what could be a close SuperBowl.
Baltimore's Defense is playing better in the last month than they have at any point this season and I think they have enough in them to make life difficult for Colin Kaepernick after doing the same to both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the Play Offs. The imminent retirement of Ray Lewis has inspired this veteran unit to raise their level, while the youngsters are showing they are capable of playing in this League.
The mobile Quarter Back has hurt Baltimore earlier in the season with both Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III having big games against them, but Paul Kruger has come into the starting Defense since then and been a real handful for Offensive Lines, while Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata are healthier now than at any point.
At the start of the Play Offs, I would have considered the Baltimore run Defense to be a real problem for them, but they have improved on that front and I think they can keep Kaepernick and Frank Gore in relative check to make sure the young signal caller has to move the chains with his arm at times.
Both Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis should be able to make some plays, but the Baltimore Secondary has also been playing very well despite missing a key player in Ladarius Webb- however the Ravens have the Number 1 ranked pass Defense in the Play Offs despite playing Quarter Backs like Manning and Brady and they also have become very stout in the red zone despite letting teams move into that zone.
So while San Francisco should be able to move the ball, grabbing touchdowns instead of field goals is going to be the key for the Niners to pick up the win.
On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco has shown why he has been demanding the big money contract and he looks certain to get what he wants in the off-season. Flacco is a polarising Quarter Back, but he was one catch away from playing in the SuperBowl last season and seems to come alive in the post-season. The QB has thrown 8 touchdown passes in the last 3 games and he has also yet to throw an interception.
With the Offensive Line finally offering Flacco some real protection, he should be able to attack the San Francisco Secondary which remains vulnerable to the deep ball and I can see Baltimore moving the chains through Flacco in this one. Aldon Smith has struggled to make the same impact in the pass rush as he did in the regular season thanks to the injury suffered by Justin Smith and if Flacco gets time, this could be tough for the Niners to stop Baltimore through the air.
Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce will also still get a healthy dose of the ball and it will be interesting to see how the Niners Defense reacts to their presence. It has been tough to run on San Francisco all season, but if they are focused on stopping the deep ball, there could be some running lanes for Rice and Pierce to exploit. Ray Rice has been a particular disappointment in the post-season, especially since his 2 fumbles against Indianapolis, but this looks like the stage in which he could shine.
I don't expect Rice and Pierce to combine for 200 yards or anything like that on the ground, but I think they will have success as Atlanta did, especially considering the pair are better than Michael Turner in my opinion. However, they may be used in a lot of screen passes as well as running the ball to get the Niners cheating forward and give Flacco room to exploit the Secondary with Torrey Smith's speed.
As I said, I can make a serious case for both of these teams and that is why my pick has changed a couple of times over the last couple of weeks. I just can't help think that Baltimore are playing with a certain level of destiny behind them, particularly after the way they beat Denver with a 'Hail Mary' pass allowing the game to go to overtime.
There are also a couple of trends that I have read that favour Baltimore... The team that is seeded higher in the SuperBowl (where it happens) is 1-12-2 against the spread going back to 1996; Teams that have started in the Wild Card Round are 7-0 against the spread in the SuperBowl in the last ten seasons.
Baltimore fans will also tell you about the similarities between this and the New York Giants success in 2007 when Michael Strahan retired as Champion, while a much maligned Quarter Back won their first SuperBowl (Eli Manning)... I am not sure the Ravens win, but I am taking the more than a field goal head start in this one.
SuperBowl Pick: Baltimore Ravens 23-24 San Francisco 49ers
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Conference Round: 2-0, + 4 Units
Divisional Round: 2-0, + 2.90 Units
Wild Card Round: 4-0, + 7.68 Units
Week 17: 3-6, - 4.26 Units
Week 16: 6-4, + 6.68 Units
Week 15: 3-6, - 5 Units
Week 14: 1-8, - 12.16 Units
Week 13: 0-3. - 6 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 7.15 Units
Week 11: 8-1, + 12.99 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.74 Units
Week 9: 3-3, + 1.64 Units
Week 8: 4-3, + 2.58 Units
Week 7: 3-3-2, + 0.58 Units
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 52-59-4, - 6.07 Units
The season as a whole looked to be going pretty well for me until Week 12-17 when I couldn't pick the winner in a one horse race and it was those weeks that have effectively ensure a losing season. However, thanks to a very effective Play Off campaign, the season will at least end of a more positive note and take a large chunk out of the losses that were incurred, particularly those in Week 14.
Anyway, below you can see my breakdown of the big game and my pick for the winner of the NFL this season.
Baltimore Ravens v San Francisco 49ers Pick: Both of these teams have come in with plenty of momentum and this is a game that has had me going back and forth over the last couple of weeks with my pick initially going to be the San Francisco 49ers, but now I have changed my mind and I like Baltimore with the points in what could be a close SuperBowl.
Baltimore's Defense is playing better in the last month than they have at any point this season and I think they have enough in them to make life difficult for Colin Kaepernick after doing the same to both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the Play Offs. The imminent retirement of Ray Lewis has inspired this veteran unit to raise their level, while the youngsters are showing they are capable of playing in this League.
The mobile Quarter Back has hurt Baltimore earlier in the season with both Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III having big games against them, but Paul Kruger has come into the starting Defense since then and been a real handful for Offensive Lines, while Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata are healthier now than at any point.
At the start of the Play Offs, I would have considered the Baltimore run Defense to be a real problem for them, but they have improved on that front and I think they can keep Kaepernick and Frank Gore in relative check to make sure the young signal caller has to move the chains with his arm at times.
Both Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis should be able to make some plays, but the Baltimore Secondary has also been playing very well despite missing a key player in Ladarius Webb- however the Ravens have the Number 1 ranked pass Defense in the Play Offs despite playing Quarter Backs like Manning and Brady and they also have become very stout in the red zone despite letting teams move into that zone.
So while San Francisco should be able to move the ball, grabbing touchdowns instead of field goals is going to be the key for the Niners to pick up the win.
On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco has shown why he has been demanding the big money contract and he looks certain to get what he wants in the off-season. Flacco is a polarising Quarter Back, but he was one catch away from playing in the SuperBowl last season and seems to come alive in the post-season. The QB has thrown 8 touchdown passes in the last 3 games and he has also yet to throw an interception.
With the Offensive Line finally offering Flacco some real protection, he should be able to attack the San Francisco Secondary which remains vulnerable to the deep ball and I can see Baltimore moving the chains through Flacco in this one. Aldon Smith has struggled to make the same impact in the pass rush as he did in the regular season thanks to the injury suffered by Justin Smith and if Flacco gets time, this could be tough for the Niners to stop Baltimore through the air.
Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce will also still get a healthy dose of the ball and it will be interesting to see how the Niners Defense reacts to their presence. It has been tough to run on San Francisco all season, but if they are focused on stopping the deep ball, there could be some running lanes for Rice and Pierce to exploit. Ray Rice has been a particular disappointment in the post-season, especially since his 2 fumbles against Indianapolis, but this looks like the stage in which he could shine.
I don't expect Rice and Pierce to combine for 200 yards or anything like that on the ground, but I think they will have success as Atlanta did, especially considering the pair are better than Michael Turner in my opinion. However, they may be used in a lot of screen passes as well as running the ball to get the Niners cheating forward and give Flacco room to exploit the Secondary with Torrey Smith's speed.
As I said, I can make a serious case for both of these teams and that is why my pick has changed a couple of times over the last couple of weeks. I just can't help think that Baltimore are playing with a certain level of destiny behind them, particularly after the way they beat Denver with a 'Hail Mary' pass allowing the game to go to overtime.
There are also a couple of trends that I have read that favour Baltimore... The team that is seeded higher in the SuperBowl (where it happens) is 1-12-2 against the spread going back to 1996; Teams that have started in the Wild Card Round are 7-0 against the spread in the SuperBowl in the last ten seasons.
Baltimore fans will also tell you about the similarities between this and the New York Giants success in 2007 when Michael Strahan retired as Champion, while a much maligned Quarter Back won their first SuperBowl (Eli Manning)... I am not sure the Ravens win, but I am taking the more than a field goal head start in this one.
SuperBowl Pick: Baltimore Ravens 23-24 San Francisco 49ers
MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Conference Round: 2-0, + 4 Units
Divisional Round: 2-0, + 2.90 Units
Wild Card Round: 4-0, + 7.68 Units
Week 17: 3-6, - 4.26 Units
Week 16: 6-4, + 6.68 Units
Week 15: 3-6, - 5 Units
Week 14: 1-8, - 12.16 Units
Week 13: 0-3. - 6 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 7.15 Units
Week 11: 8-1, + 12.99 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.74 Units
Week 9: 3-3, + 1.64 Units
Week 8: 4-3, + 2.58 Units
Week 7: 3-3-2, + 0.58 Units
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units
Season 2012: 52-59-4, - 6.07 Units
Saturday, 2 February 2013
Weekend Football Picks (February 2-3)
January turned out to be a total crappy month, especially the last week of the season when a number of late goals screwed a lot of the picks. Take away the last five minutes of games and the month would have finished in profit thanks to Manchester City, Everton and Reading scoring game changing goals in the final few minutes of games.
Oh well, hopefully a change of month also means a change of fortunes in what has actually been a pretty terrible last three months after all the positives of the first three months of the season.
Queens Park Rangers v Norwich City Pick: It wasn't as productive a January transfer window for Queens Park Rangers as I imagined it would be and late bids for Peter Odemwingie and Peter Crouch fell through. However, the signing of Loic Remy and the return of Bobby Zamora is a boost to the squad, while I do think bringing in Chris Samba to replace Ryan Nelson looks a smart move.
All of that will be a moot point if they don't start picking up points in the Premier League with 4 points separating Rangers from the positions of safety. This is a game they would have absolutely circled as one they have to win if they are to avoid the drop, and I think they are catching Norwich City at just the right time to do so.
Norwich did grab a draw with Tottenham during the week, but they have not been playing well of late and they have lost their last three away games in the Premier League. They are capable of scoring goals, but they face a QPR team that has focused on locking down their opponents in recent games.
It is likely to be a close one, but I can see the home side doing just enough to win, although I am keeping this to a minimum as I don't particularly trust QPR if I am honest.
Arsenal v Stoke City Pick: Arsenal have regularly struggled at the Brittania Stadium in recent seasons, but it has almost always been a different story when they have hosted Stoke City in London and I think this game is going to go the same way.
The Arsenal defence will always give their opponents chances, but the early season form of the Stoke defence, which had some lauding them as the 'best in Europe' has disappeared in recent games and they have been conceding goals for fun.
That has seen Stoke beaten easily at Manchester City and Swansea, while Wigan Athletic came from two down to earn a draw during the week. With the chances that Arsenal can create you have to believe they will score enough goals to win this one fairly comfortably and that is what I'll be looking for on Saturday afternoon.
Arsenal have a real chance to put some considerable pressure on rivals Tottenham in the final Champions League place and I like the home side to win this one by a couple of goals at least.
Reading v Sunderland Pick: I have read in many places that Reading are going to win this game thanks to some of their recent performances, but I am not really a fan of backing teams that have needed to produce a lot of late magic to earn results... As a Manchester United fan, that might sound funny, but I have not been convinced with the way Reading have gone about their business whereas I never think United are out of games.
Why is that? Well, Chelsea should have beaten Reading by a country mile and somehow conceded two goals in the last three minutes to let the Royals escape with a point, while I have no idea how West Brom blew a 0-2 lead to lose with three goals conceded in the last eight minutes.
And I also think people are ruling out Sunderland in this game far too easily, especially considering they have won at Fulham, Southampton and Wigan Athletic this season, three sides that are in the same bracket, or better, than Reading as far as I am concerned. The signing of Danny Graham will give them an additional attacking threat along with Steven Fletcher and I think the side will cause Reading some real problems here.
The game looks like one that could provide at least 3 goals as recent Reading home games have been high-scoring affairs and they clearly can get on the scoresheet as well as struggling defensively. With Sunderland being able to cause problems for those sides below them in the table, the over 2.5 goals looks a better option than trying to pick a winner.
Wigan Athletic v Southampton Pick: Another game that could see a few goals in it is this one at the DW Stadium, although the one concern is that the importance of the game for both teams could lead to a bit of stalemate as neither will want to lose the game.
However, I like the chances of goals after seeing the way Southampton played at Old Trafford during the week and the amount of chances they have created in their last couple of games with Mauricio Pochettino in charge. Those games were against better teams than Wigan Athletic so you have to think they will create opportunities in this one too.
Also, I do believe Wigan are beginning to play much tougher football and they have been much better at scoring goals against the weaker teams in the Division, with 2 scored against both Sunderland and Queens Park Rangers in their most recent home games against teams from the bottom half of the table. Wigan also scored twice at Stoke City during the week to pull the draw and both teams will surely want to win the game.
With the way both teams have defended at times, I do believe we will see at least 3 goals in this one.
Fulham v Manchester United Pick: It wasn't a great performance from Manchester United on Wednesday night, but the three points were earned and they now have a chance to extend their lead over Manchester City to ten points in the race for the Premier League title.
Playing Fulham away from home is a much different prospect, so I don't expect this will be as easy for United as it was in the FA Cup at Old Trafford last Saturday tea time, although they did come here and record a 0-5 win last season.
Dimitar Berbatov is a doubt for Fulham and that would be a big concern for them as the Bulgarian really is a pivotal player for them despite only being here since the start of the season. Without his presence, Fulham begin to look a lot more average and I think they are going to struggle to contain United in this one.
However, as I said before, I doubt this is as easy as it was last weekend and I can imagine some nervous moments with the way United have defended at times this season. I think United will win the game, but it could be thanks to an odd goal in three and that is what I'll be looking for.
West Brom v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The Peter Odemwingie saga has overshadowed anything West Brom have been doing over the last week, but his removal from training on Friday should have at least got them focused for this game as the Baggies look to stop a slump in form that has seen them slipping down the table.
Facing Tottenham Hotspur is not exactly the opposition required to get back to form as Spurs have been decent away from home for the most part this season and their pace on the counter can cause plenty of problems for sides.
However, they are also vulnerable at the back and there will be chances for West Brom in this one as far as I am concerned. The lack of form is a concern, but West Brom may be able to play without some pressure in this one as they will not be the favourites and thus no expectation of them getting a result.
Both teams look like they are capable of scoring goals in this one so the 1.95 on offer for at least 3 goals looks a touch generous to me.
Manchester City v Liverpool Pick: This is a big game for Manchester City who need to close the ten point gap that Manchester United opened up at the top of the Premier League with a win at Fulham on Sunday afternoon. The sale of Mario Balotelli has at least removed a distraction that had been given far too much press coverage, while there is still plenty of attacking talent available to Roberto Mancini.
City should be too strong for a Liverpool side that haven't beaten a side above them in the table and one that is coming off a big effort to hold off Arsenal in their last game on Wednesday night.
Liverpool are capable of causing problems on the counter attack for City, but I can imagine this game following a similar pattern to when they visited Old Trafford earlier last month- in that game, Liverpool were clearly second best for much of the game until a mistake from Manchester United defence gave them an avenue back into the game.
There has definitely been an improvement in form from the City side in recent weeks and only an inspired Julio Cesar prevented them beating Queens Park Rangers last time out. The absence of Vincent Kompany should give the away side a chance, but I like City to win this either 2-1 or 3-1.
MY PICKS: Queens Park Rangers @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.17 Ladbrokes (3 Units)
Reading-Sunderland Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Wigan Athletic-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Manchester United Win and 3 or 4 Total Goals in Match @ 3.40 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
West Brom-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)
Manchester City Win and 3 or 4 Total Goals in Match @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
January Final: 10-22, - 10.89 Units (45 Units Staked, - 24.2% Yield)
December Final: 17-24-1, - 0.83 Units (53 Units Staked, - 0.02 % Yield)
November Final: 8-21, - 8.25 Units (37 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
October Final: 9-9, + 5.44 Units (27 Units Staked, 20.1% Yield)
September Final: 17-11, + 21.19 Units (46 Units Staked, 46.1% Yield)
August Final: 12-13, + 1.29 Units (40 Units Staked, 3.22% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 7.95 Units (248 Units Staked, + 3.21 % Yield)
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