Super Bowl LIV NFL Pick 2020 (Sunday 2nd February)

The Super Bowl looks like it could be an epic one with the two best teams in each Conference playing for the biggest prize in American Football.

I wanted the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers to meet in Miami as soon as the Championship Games were set as I do think they will make for the most competitive game. The line suggests the layers believe the same with the Chiefs down as a very narrow favourite, but I don't think this is going to be a blow out and I can't wait to round off the 2019 season.

The only disappointment is that we have to wait seven months before we get to see another meaningful snap in either College or the Pro ranks.


At this time of the season I think it is cool to look back to early September and the kind of predictions I had for the year and how wrong I got it.

I only managed to pick five of the twelve PlayOff teams, and some of the worse have to be Cleveland Browns, Jacksonville Jaguars and the Los Angeles Chargers. Injuries hurt the Pittsburgh Steelers, while I did not foresee the Baltimore Ravens or San Francisco 49ers having the seasons they did.

However my prediction of the Kansas City Chiefs winning the Super Bowl is still alive (I had them over the Philadelphia Eagles so at least managed to pick another PlayOff team).

San Francisco 49ers vs Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The Number 1 Seed from the NFC meets the Number 2 Seed from the AFC in Super Bowl LIV coming from Miami this Sunday.

The San Francisco 49ers played in the Super Bowl as recently as February 2013, but they last won the big prize in January 1995 when this Stadium was still called the Joe Robbie Stadium. On the other side of the field is the Kansas City Chiefs who will be looking to mark the 50th Anniversary of their last Super Bowl success with another.

Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan both have Super Bowl heartbreaks to deal with- the former has Coached in seven Championship Games and is yet to pick up the Vince Lombardi Trophy, while the latter was the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the Atlanta Falcons when they blew a 28-3 lead over the New England Patriots three years ago.

Those previous experiences may be fuelling the Head Coaches, but they both know they are with different teams now and the 2019 season has gone very well for both. The 49ers finished with a slightly superior record at 13-3 compared with Kansas City's 12-4, but both have largely dominated in the PlayOffs.

The main storyline going into the Super Bowl is going to be how the San Francisco Defensive unit can stand up to the Kansas City Offense, but it has long been said that Defenses win Championships. The Super Bowl of recent years that has reminded me most of this narrative is the one where the Seattle Seahawks throttled Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos, but I do think this 49ers Defensive unit is not as strong as the 'Legion of Boom', while Patrick Mahomes is arguably playing at a better level than Manning at the end of the 2013 season.

Some are already describing Mahomes as potentially the best Quarter Back of all time and you do have to say he has all the throws. He is backed by some massive speed and big time playmakers in this Offensive scheme run by Andy Reid, but Mahomes is the key and it is going to be his performance which is going to determine whether the Chiefs can score enough points in this one.

You have to expect Andy Reid to have something up his sleeve to try and establish the run in this one after seeing the 49ers shut down the Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers on the ground. They have given up just 3.7 yards per carry in their last three games, but the Kansas City Chiefs do have a solid Running Back in Damien Williams and will also use their Receivers to run the ball by giving the 49ers something different to look at.

Damien Williams is likely to be a bigger threat in the passing game and has proven to be a good check down for Patrick Mahomes, while another important factor the San Francisco 49ers have to recognise is the ability of the Quarter Back to scramble for big runs himself.

That is going to be important for the Chiefs as it may be a big way to slow down the San Francisco pass rush which has been special for much of the season. They look to be fully healthy on the Line and even the strong Kansas City Offensive Line will be having one or two difficult moments against Nick Bosa and Dee Ford, but Patrick Mahomes being able to get out of the pocket will be important.

If the 49ers have to put a spy on Mahomes it may mean a little more space in the Secondary when the speedy Receivers get down the field, although Richard Sherman is still playing at a very high level for the 49ers. He was part of that Seattle team that crushed Peyton Manning and will be reminding his team-mates of what is possible behind a very strong Defensive unit, but there are one or two holes that can be exploited by Patrick Mahomes in this San Francisco team.

I think he is perhaps the most capable Quarter Back in the NFL to be able to do that consistently and I do think Patrick Mahomes will be difficult to contain. Instead the San Francisco 49ers will likely look for their own Offensive game-plan to be one that keeps Mahomes cooling off on the sidelines for long periods.

All season San Francisco have shown they can control the clock behind their very strong running game and it was underlined in their win over the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship Game. Raheem Mostert has seemingly come out of left field to take over as the hot hand at Running Back for San Francisco and he racked up 220 yards on the ground in the NFC Championship Game.

On the 2019 season numbers you would have to think San Francisco will be able to establish the run very well in this one, but Chris Jones looks healthy and he has helped Kansas City's Defensive Line stiffen somewhat. Over the last three games they have allowed 4.2 yards per carry and the Chiefs are definitely much stronger with Jones in the line up than without, although stopping San Francisco completely will not be easy.

The key will be to try and get Jimmy Garoppolo into third and long spots and see whether they can rattle him into mistakes- for the most part this season he has been careful enough, but Garoppolo is more than a game manager like some have suggested. He has had big performances, none more so than in the road win at the New Orleans Saints, and Garoppolo has some decent Receivers with George Kittle and Deebo Samuel the stand outs for the 49ers.

However the Kansas City Chiefs will believe the pass rush can rattle the San Francisco Quarter Back if they can get their opponent's into obvious passing situations. While the San Francisco Offensive Line has been very good in run blocking, they have not been as competent holding off the pass rush and Kansas City have playmakers up front which can rattle Jimmy Garoppolo.

Even with that in mind I do think Garoppolo will have success as the Kansas City Secondary have given up some big yards. A part of that is down to the points being put up by the Offensive unit which has opponents chasing by throwing the ball, but I do think San Francisco are capable of having solid Offensive success in this game too and both teams can enjoy the game when they have the ball in their hands.

This Super Bowl has all the makings of a very close and competitive one and I do think the teams match up very well with each other. I think the Kansas City Defensive unit is strong enough to at least contain the San Francisco run to some extent, while I also think the Kansas City Chiefs will have some Offensive success thanks to the playmaking talents of Patrick Mahomes and the Andy Reid schemes that he will have been working on for two weeks.

Andy Reid off a Bye Week has long been a good way to make some money and I am leaning towards the Kansas City Chiefs who were my pre-season pick to win it all.

I have no doubt this will be a close game, but Patrick Mahomes might be able to make one or two bigger players than Jimmy Garoppolo which ends up proving to be the difference on the day.

The higher PlayOff Seed in the Super Bowl has a miserable record against the spread over the last few years and the team with the better record has lost nine of the last ten in the big game.

In recent Super Bowls the underdog has been the team to back with a 9-3 record against the spread in the last twelve, but this is a virtual pick 'em game.

I will be looking for the superior Quarter Back to help his team come out, while I also believe Andy Reid might just have one or two creases for Kyle Shanahan that haven't been seen so far. It might be a Super Bowl that comes down to the final play to decide the outcome, but I am going to back Kansas City to come out on top thanks to a big pass from Patrick Mahomes that helps hm win the MVP Award.

MY PICK: Kansas City Chiefs - 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Championship: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)
Divisional: 1-3, - 4.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 52.25% Yield)
Wild Card: 2-2, - 0.20 Units (8 Units Staked, - 2.5% Yield)
Week 17: 2-4, - 3.98 Units (12 Units Staked, - 33.17% Yield)
Week 16: 7-4, + 5.04 Units (22 Units Staked, + 22.91% Yield)
Week 15: 1-7-1, - 12.28 Units (18 Units Staked, - 68.22% Yield)
Week 14: 2-5, - 6.36 Units (14 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 13: 5-3, + 3.26 Units (16 Units Staked, + 20.38% Yield)
Week 12: 4-2, + 3.20 Units (12 Units Staked, + 26.67% Yield)
Week 11: 4-3-1, + 1.48 Units (16 Units Staked, + 9.25% Yield)
Week 10: 4-3, + 1.10 Units (14 Units Staked, + 7.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-4, - 0.64 Units (16 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 4.20 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35% Yield)
Week 7: 2-4, - 4.10 Units (12 Units Staked, - 34.17% Yield)
Week 6: 6-3, + 4.84 Units (18 Units Staked, + 26.89% Yield)
Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 65-70-2, - 21.54 Units (271 Units Staked, - 7.94% Yield)

NFL Super Bowl XLVIII Pick (February 3 2013)

It is almost time to close the NFL season as everybody is getting ready to watch the Baltimore Ravens take on the San Francisco 49ers in New Orleans.

The season as a whole looked to be going pretty well for me until Week 12-17 when I couldn't pick the winner in a one horse race and it was those weeks that have effectively ensure a losing season. However, thanks to a very effective Play Off campaign, the season will at least end of a more positive note and take a large chunk out of the losses that were incurred, particularly those in Week 14.

Anyway, below you can see my breakdown of the big game and my pick for the winner of the NFL this season.


Baltimore Ravens v San Francisco 49ers Pick: Both of these teams have come in with plenty of momentum and this is a game that has had me going back and forth over the last couple of weeks with my pick initially going to be the San Francisco 49ers, but now I have changed my mind and I like Baltimore with the points in what could be a close SuperBowl.

Baltimore's Defense is playing better in the last month than they have at any point this season and I think they have enough in them to make life difficult for Colin Kaepernick after doing the same to both Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the Play Offs. The imminent retirement of Ray Lewis has inspired this veteran unit to raise their level, while the youngsters are showing they are capable of playing in this League.

The mobile Quarter Back has hurt Baltimore earlier in the season with both Michael Vick and Robert Griffin III having big games against them, but Paul Kruger has come into the starting Defense since then and been a real handful for Offensive Lines, while Terrell Suggs, Ray Lewis and Haloti Ngata are healthier now than at any point.

At the start of the Play Offs, I would have considered the Baltimore run Defense to be a real problem for them, but they have improved on that front and I think they can keep Kaepernick and Frank Gore in relative check to make sure the young signal caller has to move the chains with his arm at times.

Both Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis should be able to make some plays, but the Baltimore Secondary has also been playing very well despite missing a key player in Ladarius Webb- however the Ravens have the Number 1 ranked pass Defense in the Play Offs despite playing Quarter Backs like Manning and Brady and they also have become very stout in the red zone despite letting teams move into that zone.

So while San Francisco should be able to move the ball, grabbing touchdowns instead of field goals is going to be the key for the Niners to pick up the win.

On the other side of the ball, Joe Flacco has shown why he has been demanding the big money contract and he looks certain to get what he wants in the off-season. Flacco is a polarising Quarter Back, but he was one catch away from playing in the SuperBowl last season and seems to come alive in the post-season. The QB has thrown 8 touchdown passes in the last 3 games and he has also yet to throw an interception.

With the Offensive Line finally offering Flacco some real protection, he should be able to attack the San Francisco Secondary which remains vulnerable to the deep ball and I can see Baltimore moving the chains through Flacco in this one. Aldon Smith has struggled to make the same impact in the pass rush as he did in the regular season thanks to the injury suffered by Justin Smith and if Flacco gets time, this could be tough for the Niners to stop Baltimore through the air.

Ray Rice and Bernard Pierce will also still get a healthy dose of the ball and it will be interesting to see how the Niners Defense reacts to their presence. It has been tough to run on San Francisco all season, but if they are focused on stopping the deep ball, there could be some running lanes for Rice and Pierce to exploit. Ray Rice has been a particular disappointment in the post-season, especially since his 2 fumbles against Indianapolis, but this looks like the stage in which he could shine.

I don't expect Rice and Pierce to combine for 200 yards or anything like that on the ground, but I think they will have success as Atlanta did, especially considering the pair are better than Michael Turner in my opinion. However, they may be used in a lot of screen passes as well as running the ball to get the Niners cheating forward and give Flacco room to exploit the Secondary with Torrey Smith's speed.

As I said, I can make a serious case for both of these teams and that is why my pick has changed a couple of times over the last couple of weeks. I just can't help think that Baltimore are playing with a certain level of destiny behind them, particularly after the way they beat Denver with a 'Hail Mary' pass allowing the game to go to overtime.

There are also a couple of trends that I have read that favour Baltimore... The team that is seeded higher in the SuperBowl (where it happens) is 1-12-2 against the spread going back to 1996; Teams that have started in the Wild Card Round are 7-0 against the spread in the SuperBowl in the last ten seasons.

Baltimore fans will also tell you about the similarities between this and the New York Giants success in 2007 when Michael Strahan retired as Champion, while a much maligned Quarter Back won their first SuperBowl (Eli Manning)... I am not sure the Ravens win, but I am taking the more than a field goal head start in this one.

SuperBowl Pick: Baltimore Ravens 23-24 San Francisco 49ers


MY PICKS: Baltimore Ravens + 4 Points @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)


Conference Round: 2-0, + 4 Units
Divisional Round: 2-0, + 2.90 Units
Wild Card Round: 4-0, + 7.68 Units
Week 17: 3-6, - 4.26 Units
Week 16: 6-4, + 6.68 Units
Week 15: 3-6, - 5 Units
Week 14: 1-8, - 12.16 Units
Week 13: 0-3. - 6 Units
Week 12: 3-6, - 7.15 Units
Week 11: 8-1, + 12.99 Units
Week 10: 4-4, + 0.74 Units
Week 9: 3-3, + 1.64 Units
Week 8: 4-3, + 2.58 Units
Week 7: 3-3-2, + 0.58 Units
Week 6: 3-5, - 5.26 Units
Week 5: 2-5, - 6.24 Units
Week 4: 6-3, + 2.50 Units
Week 3: 4-3, + 0.95 Units
Week 2: 6-4, + 3.92 Units
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.76 Units

Season 2012: 52-59-4, - 6.07 Units