College Football Pick- National Championship 2025 (Monday 20th January)

The new College Football Playoff has changed the way we lead up into the National Championship Game, but we have got here and it looks like a decent game between two schools that have overcome some adversity during the course of the season.

The off-season is going to bring changes in College Football and we might even here about any extension to the Playoff format, while all eyes will be on North Carolina and whether they can retain Bill Belichick as Head Coach.

It has been a fun season for the fans to enjoy, but all comes to a conclusion with a new Champion set to be crowned when the Buckeyes and Fighting Irish face off.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: The new College Football Playoff format will be considered a success, although there maybe some tweaks and an expansion over the coming years.

The first twelve team Playoff ends on Monday with the National Championship Game and it looks a good one.

Both the Ohio State Buckeyes (13-2) and Notre Dame Fighting Irish (14-1) played in the First Round of the post-season and they have each beaten three opponents.

The Buckeyes crushed Tennessee Volunteers at home before earning revenge over the Oregon Ducks, the Big Ten Champions, in the Quarter Final. They were not as dominant, despite the score, in the win over the Texas Longhorns, but the Ohio State Buckeyes will feel they are pretty well tested ahead of the National Championship as a talented group peak at just the right time.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish have beaten two Big Ten opponents on their way to the National Championship Game and that will give them plenty of confidence that this season can end with a trophy to parade. The blowout of the Indiana Hoosiers was expected, but the tough, battling win over the Penn State Nittany Lions just underlined the belief in this Fighting Irish team.

Beating the SEC Champions Georgia, albeit with a backup Quarter Back, will have deepened that belief and Notre Dame have to be respected for gritting their way through to the National Championship Game. Injuries have piled up, which is something those in the Playoff Committee will have noted, but the Fighting Irish continue to rally together and 'next man up' mentality is helping them.

This is the hardest of tests for Notre Dame with the Buckeyes finally looking like they are playing at the level that most expected from them before a ball had been kicked off, and it may not be the best match up Offensively.

The Fighting Irish want to lean on the Offensive Line, but the Playoff performances have been more challenging for them as they have opened up holes for 4.1 yards per carry. However, Notre Dame are not going to want to move too far away from the plan, and that is a problem when going up against this Ohio State Defensive Line, which has played at a really high level in the post-season.

Riley Leonard would love to throw the ball to open the running lanes, but the Notre Dame Fighting Irish Quarter Back has not really been as consistent with the step up in level of competition. There has been some success throwing the ball against the Buckeyes, but that is because teams have needed to take risks and Leonard and company may get into a vicious cycle if they have to move away from the run.

It would also mean trying to stop the fierce Ohio State pass rush that has penetrated the backfield and Riley Leonard has been put under duress during the Notre Dame run to the National Championship Game. That pressure has led to some turnovers and the Ohio State Buckeyes have to be very confident about what they can do when the Fighting Irish have the ball, especially with further injuries on the Notre Dame Offensive Line.

In saying that, Notre Dame are going to be confident they can make enough plays on the Defensive side of the ball to keep this one competitive and give them a chance of earning the upset.

Extra preparation time should mean the Fighting Irish are ready to challenge this very productive Ohio State Offense, which has found considerable balance.

Moving the ball on the ground against the Fighting Irish Defensive Line with any consistency will not be easy, but this Ohio State team will be confident they can rip open some big plays to keep the team balanced, which is so important in these potentially tight, competitive Defensive battles.

Will Howard is certainly the stronger passer of the two Quarter Backs taking to the field and he has some hugely talented playmakers around him. Assuming the Fighting Irish are going to try and limit the impact of Jeremiah Smith, others have shown they can step up for their Quarter Back and make the plays that keep the chains moving down the field.

There are some big injuries on this side of the ball for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish to deal with and even Head Coach Marcus Freeman's strong record when having time to prepare looks like it may not be good enough to keep his team within the spread.

He will make sure Notre Dame remain competitive, but the likelihood is that the Ohio State Buckeyes use their talent to wear down a Notre Dame team missing a lot of important players on both sides of the ball. Head Coach Ryan Day is under some pressure to bring home the National Championship, but his Buckeyes team look to have peaked at the right time and they can cover on their way to a very successful season, a loss to Michigan aside.

MY PICK: Ohio State Buckeyes - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Playoff Semi Final: 1-1, - 0.09 Units (2 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Playoff Quarter Final: 2-2, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Playoff First Round: 3-1, + 1.72 Units (4 Units Staked, + 43% Yield)

Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)

Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2025 (Tuesday 21st January)

The Quarter Finals are set to begin on Day 10 at the Australian Open and there is little doubt that the last match heading out onto the court is the one that most fans will be looking forward to seeing.

That doesn't mean the rest of the schedule can be ignored and there are players in the current World's top three who are looking to back up their Seeding by booking a spot in the final four.

The selections from Day 10 can be read below and there is also the update to the tournament totals after another decent day to keep the number ticking in a positive direction.

Coco Gauff - 4.5 games v Paula Badosa: The winner of this one will be expecting two time defending Australian Open Champion to be waiting in the Semi Final, but this is a tough Quarter Final for both Coco Gauff and Paula Badosa and deserves full focus.

It helps that they are going on before the other Quarter Final scheduled for Day 10 at the 2025 tournament and any match featuring two of the current top 12 in the World Rankings should bring in plenty of fans.

In the live WTA Rankings, Coco Gauff is pretty well set as the World Number 3, but Paula Badosa will almost certainly end the tournament as a top 10 Ranked player if she can reach the Semi Final. That brings extra motivation to the court for the Spaniard, who has had a difficult twelve months in terms of consistency and remaining healthy, but Paula Badosa is looking stronger on the court right now.

There wasn't much encouragement from the performances in the warm up events, but Paula Badosa has played well through the first four Rounds in Melbourne. The run includes a win over World Number 18 Marta Kostyuk, albeit in her toughest match of the tournament so far, and the Ukrainian is the highest Ranked player either of these Quarter Finalists have had to face.

It should give Paula Badosa confidence, but Coco Gauff is one of the stronger hard court players on the WTA Tour and the American looks to be peaking at the right time.

The first serve is very effective, when it lands, and Coco Gauff has the edge between these two players when it comes to the return. The key to the match may actually be the Paula Badosa second serve, which has been really well looked after at the Australian Open this year, and it may be the battle on those points that determines the direction of the match.

These players are very familiar with one another and this is the seventh match on the Tour with the most recent won in three sets by Coco Gauff on the hard courts of Beijing. The World Number 3's second serve has been exploited by Paula Badosa, but it is also telling that Coco Gauff has been able to really get her teeth into the Badosa service games and that may be the difference between them here.

Where Coco Gauff may expect to get a few more cheaper points behind the first serve, Paula Badosa may have to battle to protect her serve regardless of whether the first or second serve is in play. In that match in Beijing, Coco Gauff created 20 Break Points compared with 10 for Paula Badosa and the feeling is that the higher Ranked player can build scoreboard pressure in this Quarter Final too.

Credit has to be given to Paula Badosa for pushing that match in Beijing into a deciding set and she is a very capable performer on the hard courts.

However, the consistency of Coco Gauff may just prove to be too much and she may end up finding the breaks of serve that put her in a position to reach yet another Grand Slam Semi Final and with a cover of this spread too.

Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 sets v Novak Djokovic: As soon as the draw was made for the Men's Singles event at the Australian Open, fans would have immediately have been thinking ahead to this potential Quarter Final.

Both Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz have produced some very strong tennis to make their way through the Australian Open draw with little fuss and that should mean there are no excuses at either side of the net when it comes to the final outcome of this big match.

Barring a win, Novak Djokovic is in danger of actually dropping in the World Rankings, but that is a number that no longer concerns the Serb. The only number of note for Novak Djokovic is 25 as he looks to move ahead of every single player who has played previously in numbers of Grand Slam titles won.

A ten time Champion in Australia, some believe this tournament and Wimbledon remain Djokovic's most likely places to add to his amazing Grand Slam total. He may believe differently, but Novak Djokovic has something to prove after failing to win a Grand Slam in 2024 and only making one Final over the course of the year, even if he did win Olympic Gold in Paris.

He has never been beaten on the hard courts by Carlos Alcaraz having won their two matches in 2023, but the 21 year old is getting stronger all the time.

Confidence is not an issue for Carlos Alcaraz who has made it clear how much he wants to win the Australian Open to complete his Grand Slam set and preparation looks to have been perfect for him. Wins have been achieved over Novak Djokovic in the very biggest spots- two Wimbledon Finals- but there is still a massive test in facing the former World Number 1 and especially here in Melbourne.

Last year Jannik Sinner swatted away the Novak Djokovic challenge in four sets in the Semi Final here at the Australian Open, but this match is expected to be much tougher for Carlos Alcaraz with Djokovic looking stronger than he did twelve months ago.

Both are serving at an incredible level in the tournament and there is no doubt the importance of maintaining those numbers, while Carlos Alcaraz may feel he has the edge as far as the return goes. That might be the difference when you look at the numbers at the Australian Open, but also a look at how Novak Djokovic has performed behind his strongest shot over the last twelve months on this surface.

Novak Djokovic only facing a top 10 Ranked opponent for the third time on the hard courts over the last twelve months and it should be noted that he has struggled on his return in the other two matches. That is obviously a ridiculously small sample from which to make sweeping statements, but the feeling is that Andy Murray has been employed as a Coach to perhaps help improve that.

Over the same time span, Carlos Alcaraz has played top 10 Ranked opponents nine times on the hard courts and he has won seven of those matches. The two defeats were at the Tour Finals when Alcaraz admitted he was suffering with some kind of illness, but overall he has shown himself capable of stepping up against the elite of the Tour and winning more often than not on this surface.

In those matches, the service numbers dip slightly, which is not a surprise, but Carlos Alcaraz has maintained a very strong return game.

This is a big Quarter Final from a mental point of view for the current World Number 3, but Carlos Alcaraz has shown he has the strength to pass the test and he may just do so in impressive fashion against a dominant former Champion.

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 sets v Tommy Paul: The World Number 2 Alexander Zverev has made his way through the Australian Open without too many issues and he will be quite glad with the way has worked out for him. Of course there are still tougher tests ahead, but the focus for Alexander Zverev will be trying to win this match without exerting all of his energy and then hoping Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz drag each other into a battle that lasts hours.

Overlooking Tommy Paul and believing the World Number 11 can be beaten without full focus would be a mistake, but Alexander Zverev should not lack focus having been beaten by this opponent in both previous matches on the Tour.

Both have been victories for Tommy Paul on the hard courts too, while he was Ranked at Number 66 and Number 39 when winning those matches.

He is a much more confident player in 2025 than he was in March 2022 when last facing Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul has looked strong at the Australian Open after a battle to win his First Round match. After dropping the opening set in the Second Round, Tommy Paul has won nine straight sets in the tournament and he has dropped more than two games within any of those sets twice.

Tommy Paul will want to have a more consistent impact at the Grand Slams to really push on and this is just his third Quarter Final- he was a Semi Finalist in Melbourne two years ago and reached the Wimbledon Quarter Final last year, but it has been a chore for the American to merely make the second week at a Slam.

The level being produced by Tommy Paul is impressive and he is going to be dangerous if he continues to be as productive on the return as he has been in the tournament. Solid movement and an ability to turn defence into attack has made Tommy Paul one of the better return players on the hard courts, but he will be well aware of the kind of serving that Alexander Zverev is putting together at this opening Grand Slam of 2025.

The German has been dominant behind the shot, although he has been broken twice in each of the last two Rounds. Despite that, Alexander Zverev is winning almost 73% of the points played behind serve, which has led to 92% of service games being held and it could be that shot that contains the threat posed by the lower Ranked opponent.

It is a Quarter Final that looks like it will be a battle and the numbers produced by Alexander Zverev and Tommy Paul against top ten Ranked opponents over the last twelve months on the hard courts have been similar. The World Number 2 has been the better server in those matches, but Tommy Paul has been the superior returner and it does feel like the Alexander Zverev games will be where this match is one or lost.

If Alexander Zverev is serving as he has throughout this tournament, it could be tough for Tommy Paul who is perhaps not as battle tested as he would have liked. The American deserves a lot of respect for his abilities on the court, but the feeling is that Alexander Zverev may just edge some of the most important points with an ability to get out of a jam behind big serving and that can lead him through to the Semi Final with a win in likely four sets.

MY PICKS: Coco Gauff - 4.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 1.5 Sets @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 23-8, + 20.42 Units (59 Units Staked, + 34.61% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2025 (Monday 20th January)

Since the beginning of this tournament, I have constantly looked back on the Australian Open 2024 as the low point of the Tennis Picks and the focus of making sure something that like that does not happen again.

The selection process has been a bit tighter in January 2025, but there were enough positives from the remaining three Grand Slam tournaments and the Tour Finals to believe that there was not a lot wrong with the processes taken before making the Picks.

I've always said you need some luck with the tight margins that represent any tennis match on the Tour.

In most cases it comes down to one or two points in a set to really dictate the final score- that may be taking a single Break Point or saving multiple Break Points, or as simple as a net cord changing the momentum within a match.

With that in mind, the Australian Open 2024 will long live in the memory as the absolute worst performance and it is something I will be looking to avoid happening again.

The New Year and the first Grand Slam of the season has really been the opposite of the tournament in 2024 and four winners from four selections on Day 8 has kept the total moving in a positive direction. The only pick that didn't return was when Jack Draper called it quits in his match with Carlos Alcaraz as the Spaniard was closing in on a win and a cover too, something that the British player is perhaps earning a reputation for doing when things are not going his way.

However, the win includes a couple of odds against prices, which can build the momentum and it would be a real disappointment if this is not a tournament that kicks off the 2025 Tennis Picks with a positive return.

In saying that, this is not the time to pat yourself on the back and instead the focus is to try and win every day.

On Day 9 the Fourth Round is completed as we reach the business end of the tournament with some top names and favourites still involved with real ambitions of winning this Grand Slam.

There are some tight, competitive matches that look too tight to call one way or the other, but the there are three selections which can be read below.

Jannik Sinner - 6.5 games v Holger Rune: Winning both Grand Slam tournaments played on the hard courts, the ATP Tour Finals and plenty of other Masters events on the surface means Jannik Sinner is the player to beat in the men's draw in Melbourne.

He benefits from being on the other side of the draw to the likes of Novak Djokovic, Carlos Alcaraz and Alexander Zverev, but there is still a cloud hanging over the World Number 1 due to a failed drugs test from last year which has yet to be completely cleared up.

The fact that Sinner is able to focus on his tennis is testament to his mental resiliency, especially as he was faced with plenty of criticism ahead of the US Open, which he ended up winning.

Three wins at the Australian Open have come in routine fashion and Jannik Sinner will go into this Fourth Round match as a considerable favourite.

Of course Jannik Sinner will have a real respect for Holger Rune, the World Number 13 who was as high as World Number 4 eighteen months ago and looks to be coming out of a difficult patch of form. The Dane is still only 21 years old and has massive potential for big successes on the Tour, but Rune perhaps hit an early wall in his career and early losses at both the Australian Open and US Open last year would have stung.

Winning this match would push Holger Rune back into the top ten of the World Rankings, but he has not been the most convincing player entering the Fourth Round. Putting three wins on the board will build some confidence, but Holger Rune has been edging some fine margins and he has played fourteen of fifteen potential sets to move through the draw.

The time spent on the court is not a massive concern, but the mental effort to get through a couple of five setters, including in the Third Round, has to take a toll.

This is also a big step up for Holger Rune, who will be motivated by the challenge, and Jannik Sinner has won their last two matches on the Tour. Neither has been comfortable, but the last match was in April 2024 and the World Number 1 continues to grow his aura on the court.

Both are serving well, although the edge is with the top Seed, but the big difference may be the ability on the return and that is where Jannik Sinner looks the stronger player.

Make no mistake, this is a big spread and Holger Rune is capable of testing Jannik Sinner.

However, the feeling is that Sinner is fresher and looks to be just increasing his level as we move into the second week of this Grand Slam and he may end up pulling away from Holger Rune over the course of a three or four set match. One of those sets could be won with a couple of breaks of serve, and that may be enough to push Jannik Sinner past the line set.

Daria Kasatkina v Emma Navarro: Only two places separated these two top ten Ranked players ahead of the tournament and the layers are finding it hard to put much more between them when it comes to the prices for this Fourth Round match.

It is Emma Navarro who is the higher Ranked of the two players, but the American has not really impressed in Melbourne.

The heart is not going to be criticised though and Emma Navarro has found a way through in matches where she has been struggling and that will give her plenty of confidence. We are moving into the second week at this Grand Slam, which means the competition is expected to increase, so there is some pressure on Navarro to lift her level.

Next up is Daria Kasatkina, the World Number 10 and a player who is going to hold onto one of those spots barring an upset and Madison Keys winning the event.

She has been a dominant winner in all three matches in Melbourne, but Daria Kasatkina has not played anyone inside the top 20 of the World Rankings and that has to be factored in. Take nothing away from the performances, but it should be pointed out that Daria Kasatkina has a 4-4 record against top 20 opponents over the last twelve months and is just 0-2 when it comes to facing fellow top ten opponents on this surface.

Emma Navarro has needed three sets in each of her victories in Melbourne, and it is the slightly better returning numbers compared to her overall numbers in that category which have helped her through to the Fourth Round.

It will certainly give the American hope, especially as she is facing an opponent in Daria Kasatkina who does not have the most intimidating of serves.

The World Number 10 is a very good return player though and Emma Navarro has not really been getting enough out of her serve to ever think she will be comfortable.

Expect plenty of rallies and breaks galore, but the feeling is that Daria Kasatkina's current level may just see her outlast an opponent who has already played a lot of tennis over the last week.

Iga Swiatek - 7.5 games v Eva Lys: She is only 23 years old, but Eva Lys would have arrived in Australia hoping to have an impact at a warm up event and then earn a place in the main draw at the Australian Open to earn some valuable Ranking points.

She would have admitted some disappointment having been beaten in Brisbane in the opening Qualifying Round before Eva Lys was able to make it through two matches in the Australian Open Qualifiers. It was not to be as the German was beaten in the Third Qualifying Round and Eva Lys admitted that she had booked a flight out of the country and back onto the slog of the Tour.

The World Number 128 was given a reprieve by earning a Lucky Loser spot in the main draw in Melbourne and Lys has taken full advantage.

Fortune has been on her side having faced a Qualifier in the First Round of the main draw and Eva Lys has won two more matches, but against opponents Ranked 69 or lower. She still had to win the matches though and Eva Lys will be entering the top 100 for the first time at the end of this tournament, which means direct entry into further Grand Slam tournaments and an opportunity to play bigger events than she has been fighting through.

It has been all positive for Eva Lys, but she is going to have to raise her level significantly in this Fourth Round match on Monday when taking on World Number 2 Iga Swiatek.

A flawless performance saw Iga Swiatek drop just a single game in her crushing win over former US Open Champion Emma Raducanu and the Polish player has admitted that she feels much stronger than when preparing at the United Cup.

Iga Swiatek has to be really happy with her level having beaten three opponents Ranked 61 or higher, and she has dominated behind serve. In the last two matches she has not even faced a Break Point, while Swiatek has won 53% of return points played in the Australian Open.

Her level is considerably higher than someone like Eva Lys and Iga Swiatek looks to be really focused right now.

As long as that continues to be the case, Iga Swiatek should dominate this match and there is every chance she can avoid giving too much away to her opponent. This is a massive line, one that is more along the lines that the men are asked to cover in a best of five set match, not a best of three, but Iga Swiatek is playing at such a standard that she may just have the capabilities of securing another one-sided victory in the tournament.

Their sole previous meeting was on Iga Swiatek's favoured clay courts in 2022 and Eva Lys was able to win just two games on the day- she may double that total here, but even that may not be enough to prevent the Number 2 Seed from easing through to the Quarter Final.

MY PICKS: Jannik Sinner - 6.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Daria Kasatkina @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 7.5 Games @ 2.20 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 21-7, + 18.98 Units (53 Units Staked, + 35.81% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 8 Picks 2025 (Sunday 19th January)

Four winners from five selections have to be welcomed to conclude the first week at the Australian Open and it has been a much stronger start to the event than twelve months ago.

There is still plenty of work to do with the Fourth Round beginning on Day 8 in Melbourne and the matches are getting tougher to call.

However, there are five selections below from the Singles matches scheduled to be played and hopefully the second week picks up from where the first left off.

Novak Djokovic - 4.5 games v Jiri Leheckha: There looks to be an absolute plan for Novak Djokovic to not overexert himself early at the Australian Open and especially not with some the way the draw has lined up in front of him.

Arguably the greatest player of all time, Novak Djokovic is fallen to World Number 7 over the last twelve months and that is because the player is focusing almost completely on finding his best form at Grand Slam events. Last year there was also plenty of stock placed into winning an Olympic Gold Medal, which Novak Djokovic did earn in Paris, but it cannot be ignored that he only reached one Grand Slam Final and failed to win another big title to move past all that have come before him in terms of Singles Grand Slam titles won.

Melbourne and London might be the best opportunities that Novak Djokovic will have to add to the 24 Grand Slam titles won, but this year he is likely going to have to beat the top three Ranked players in the World to secure yet another trophy at the Australian Open.

With that in mind, Novak Djokovic is doing what he needs to in order to win matches, but we are now entering the second week of the tournament. This should sharpen focus and it should not be overlooked that Novak Djokovic has been playing at a decent level.

Next up is Jiri Lehecka who has quietly moved through the draw with very little pushback.

The Czechia World Number 29 is moving ever closer to cracking the top 20 of the World Rankings for the first time and an upset over Djokovic will likely push Jiri Lehecka into the elite company.

The serve is a big weapon for Jiri Lehecka, but he will be well aware that is facing perhaps the greatest return player of all time in this Fourth Round match and at a venue where Novak Djokovic has had considerable success. Failing to be able to serve as effectively as he had previously would put a lot of pressure on the Lehecka return and that has not really been up to the standard needed to really expect deep runs in these big Grand Slam events.

Eight straight wins will give Jiri Lehecka all of the confidence he needs to take on a legend of the sport, but this is a big step up compared with those previous opponents. He has beaten World Number 13 Holger Rune and World Number 10 Grigor Dimitrov this season, but Lehecka will have to be a lot better than when he was beaten in the United Cup by Novak Djokovic in January 2024 and the expectation is that the ten time former Australian Open Champion will be able to find the tennis needed to cover this spread set.

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 games v Jack Draper: Neither of these players took in an official warm up event in preparation for the Australian Open, but both have backed up their Seeding to earn this spot in the Fourth Round.

The manner of reaching this Round could not have been much different though and it is fitting that Carlos Alcaraz is such a big favourite to beat Jack Draper.

If this match was played next week, you would actually give Jack Draper an opportunity to challenge the World Number 3, but it has already been a very long week for the British player. The three wins will have helped Jack Draper just cement his place in the top 20 of the World Rankings, but it is far from ideal preparation for a match like this one that he has needed to play all fifteen possible sets at Melbourne Park to earn passage into the Fourth Round.

You could make a bit more of a case for Draper if he had not spent well over 12 hours on the court already and there has to be some real concerns about fatigue issues.

In reality this would have been a tough match no matter when it was played and Carlos Alcaraz has made serene progress through the draw and been on the court for half the time that Jack Draper has had.

The Spaniard has made his intentions very clear this week as he looks to complete the career Grand Slam before he turns 22 years old and the level produced by Carlos Alcaraz makes it very difficult to oppose him.

And it is not as if Carlos Alcaraz has benefited from an easy draw having faced the highest Rank opponent that either himself or Jack Draper have overcome.

The serve has been a big weapon for Carlos Alcaraz on the hard courts and he has maintained that level in the three wins this week. Jack Draper will believe in his own serving ability, but that potential fatigue factor could see the British player weaken behind that shot, while Carlos Alcaraz will feel he is the superior return player and that should put him in a position to win, and win well.

Jack Draper did reach the US Open Semi Final in September, and he gave Jannik Sinner plenty to think about even in a straight sets defeat. However, Draper made much easier progress into that Semi Final and would have had a lot more to give, but that looks unlikely on Day 8 at the Australian Open after the amount of tennis he has already played.

This is a monster spread for a Fourth Round match, but Carlos Alcaraz is capable of wearing down his opponent and eventually pulling clear for the cover.

Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Belinda Bencic: This is not a surprising Fourth Round match at a Grand Slam in terms of names, but you have to give Belinda Bencic a lot of credit for earning her spot in the second week of the Australian Open.

She has only recently returned from maternity leave and Belinda Bencic has already made it clear that it was something of a late decision for her to even travel to Australia.

After coming through Qualifying in Adelaide and playing a couple of matches at the United Cup, Belinda Bencic may have entered the draw believing one or two wins could be earned. An upset of Seeded Jelena Ostapenko in the First Round will have given the former World Number 4 a real boost in confidence, but Belinda Bencic has not played this much tennis in a short space of time and you do have to wonder if a build of fatigue is going to be a factor.

It is also a Fourth Round match against one of the favourites to win the title in Melbourne and Coco Gauff was a very confident winner in the Third Round. The American looks like she is building up her intensity and levels as Gauff looks to peak next Saturday and there is no doubting the strength of her tennis on a hard court.

There have been one or two frustrations with her serving, but Coco Gauff's numbers have been impressive and she is really getting her teeth into the return.

Belinda Bencic is a very effective hard court player in her own right, but the long absence of playing at this level and the three matches already played this week might end up working against her. She can be tough to beat, but Jasmine Paolini was a very comfortable winner over Belinda Bencic at the United Cup and this is the toughest test the Swiss player will have had since returning to the Tour.

It will also not be lost on Belinda Bencic that the last time she faced Coco Gauff, she was able to win just three games on the hard courts of Washington and it may be tough to contain the favourite in this one.

The spread is a big line considering the ability of Belinda Bencic, but Coco Gauff can use her serve to build scoreboard pressure that eventually wears down an opponent making a return to the Tour.

MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Carlos Alcaraz - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 17-7, + 11.60 Units (45 Units Staked, + 25.78% Yield)

NFL Playoff Picks- Divisional Round 2025 (Saturday 18th January-Sunday 19th January)

The home teams dominated the Wild Card Round of the NFL Playoffs and there are three big favourites hosting in the Divisional Round.

However, two of those are playing after Bye Weeks and so the road underdogs travelling to Kansas City and Detroit may hope that their own rhythm gives them a chance for the upset.

In reality it is going to be tough for any of the first three road teams going up, but the last game of the Divisional Round between Buffalo and Baltimore could be an epic... It is the game of the weekend and one that all are looking forward to as we finalise the last four teams standing ahead of the Championship Sunday coming up.

The NFL Picks moved back in a positive direction with a 4-2 return last week, but there is some frustration with the way the Tampa Bay Buccaneers blew their chances to beat the Washington Commanders.

That was the sole home defeat in the Round, but it is still always nice to return a positive number and the hope is to kick on through the Divisional Round as we move into that time of the season when there are just seven games left until September.

Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: The two top Seeds in the AFC and NFC might be heading into the Divisional Round of the Playoff after a Bye Week, but they will both be playing on Saturday.

First up is the AFC Number 1 Seed the Kansas City Chiefs (15-2) who are looking to make history over the coming weeks.

There is no doubt that the Kansas City Chiefs are in the midst of their dynasty with three Super Bowl rings in the last of the five seasons. However, they can really cement their names in the history of the NFL by winning the Super Bowl for a third year in a row, something that has never been done before despite some of the top teams that have been around.

Even winning consecutive Super Bowl Championships has placed Kansas City amongst some of the very best teams in history. All credit has to be given to Head Coach Andy Reid and Quarter Back Patrick Mahomes for continuing to motivate themselves for more, but this season there has to be a lot of credit given to the Chiefs Defensive unit for the incredible record put together.

The Chiefs have rode their luck at times, but they are going to be very tough to beat with Arrowhead behind them.

Resting their starters in Week 18 does mean it has been a considerable layoff for the Kansas City Chiefs, but this is a team that have become used to earning Byes in the post-season. Last year was very different and the Chiefs got hot at a very good time, while there won't be many rushing to back the Houston Texans (11-7) to earn a second upset in a row.

Winning as a home underdog in the Wild Card Round will have given the Texans a boost, but this is a very tough game for them on the road and in what is expected to be very cold temperatures at Arrowhead. CJ Stroud has shown his qualities since entering the NFL, but one of those has not been performing in these kind of cold weather temperatures and it will be tough for the Texans, a Dome team.

The Texans will need the Quarter Back and the Offensive unit to make some plays, but the Defensive unit have to pick up from where they left off against the Los Angeles Chargers. The Houston Defensive Line will feel they can contain the Kansas City Chiefs on the ground and put all of the pressure on the shoulders of Patrick Mahomes, although this is a Quarter Back who thrives when he has the game on his shoulders.

It has not been a vintage season for Patrick Mahomes and this Texans Secondary have played well behind some of the pressure they have generated up front. In saying all that, you know Mahomes is going to scramble and extend plays and he has a huge amount of trust in all of his Receivers that he will keep drives moving.

A key for the Texans is to try and generate pressure with the front four and see if they can leave when in coverage, but it will be tough to completely lock down Patrick Mahomes. Instead the Defensive unit have to try and give their Offense a chance in this one by at least stalling some Kansas City drives and keeping their team in the game.

Both Stefon Diggs and Tank Dell are out for the Houston Texans and so the play-calling has perhaps become more reliant on the run rather than CJ Stroud and the pass. Joe Mixon has been having a strong end to the season for Houston and the encouraging part, as far as they are concerned, is that the Chiefs Defensive Line has been allowing teams to move the chains.

They may try and strengthen up front to force CJ Stroud to have to take to the air with the main threat being Nico Collins, and there have been one or two holes that the Quarter Back may feel he can exploit in the Secondary.

Avoiding turnovers is absolutely key for Houston, who were beaten here at Arrowhead just days before Christmas. That was a game where Kansas City only had a little over 60 yards more than Houston and it was a competitive game for a long time, which is the expectation of this Divisional Round game.

You would think having the Bye has given the home teams a big advantage in the Divisional Round, but that has not been the case and those teams are 3-5 against the spread.

And for all of Patrick Mahomes' qualities, he is just 22-32-3 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 7 points. For a long time the Chiefs have done what is needed to win games, but blowing teams away is not really high on their list of agendas in each week and there is every chance they begin to look ahead to the AFC Championship Game if getting into a two score lead.

The cold weather continues to be a concern, but CJ Stroud is 10-6 against the spread as the underdog and the Texans can control the Line of Scrimmage, which should allow them to keep this close on the scoreboard at the very least.

Washington Commanders @ Detroit Lions Pick: In Week 18 the Detroit Lions (15-2) were able to get the better of Divisional rivals Minnesota for a second time in the regular season and that secured the NFC North and the Number 1 Seed in the Conference.

A Bye through to the Divisional Round has given the Lions an opportunity to rest and allow other players to recover from injuries so they can take part in what Detroit are hoping is a maiden run to the Super Bowl.

Home advantage is secured through to the Super Bowl, but there is some pressure on the Detroit Lions who have made it very clear that winning the Championship is their only ambition for the season.

Next up is the Washington Commanders (13-5) who upset the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road last week, although the mistakes made by the Buccaneers at the end of that Wild Card game will haunt them through the off-season.

Jayden Daniels made some big plays late on, as he has throughout his rookie season, but it has been tough for rookie Quarter Backs to string wins together in the Playoff. The Commanders feel they have a special player behind Center, but this is another big test for Jayden Daniels and against the team many feel has been the best in the Conference all season.

Even as injuries have piled up, credit has to be given to the Lions for finding a way to clamp down on Offenses they have been facing.

The bend, don't break concept has worked for the Lions, but the first port of call for Detroit will be for the Defensive Line to play the run a little better than they have in recent games. Trying to keep the Commanders in third and long will give the Lions an opportunity to try and rattle Jayden Daniels, although the young Quarter Back has shown a willingness to stand in the pocket and make his plays down the field even under pressure.

The Lions Secondary did give Sam Darnold problems in Week 18, but this is arguably a tougher test and they have given up enough yards through the air to offer Jayden Daniels and company plenty of encouragement.

Washington's own Defensive Line have played well in recent games and that is going to be key for them in this big road game in the Divisional Round. However, they have rarely been up against a powerful Offensive Line like the one that Detroit will be bringing onto the field.

David Montgomery is back and the 'Sonic and Knuckles' combination when coupled with Jahmyr Gibbs will make it very difficult for the Commanders to keep tabs on the Lions.

That same Offensive Line has offered plenty of pass protection for Jared Goff too and giving the Quarter Back a bit of time in the pocket could see the Lions make some big plays down the field. The ability to run the ball opens up play-action, quick strike Football and the Lions are going to be very confident behind Jared Goff.

The Quarter Back has a 34-13-1 record against the spread when playing indoors for the Detroit Lions, while the game plan for this one should be well executed for a Head Coach who has an 11-2 record against the spread when having preparation time.

Historically the Lions have not been a team you want to back to cover big spreads, especially when facing teams with a winning record. However they covered in the post-season last year against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers as a biggish favourite and Detroit might just show their talent edge in this one against the overachieving Washington Commanders.

This is a big line though and Jayden Daniels can do enough to secure a backdoor cover with his own ability at Quarter Back.

Road underdogs of between 3.5 and 9.5 points have a 26-17-1 record against the spread in this Divisional Round of the Playoffs and the Commanders can do enough to avoid the blowout. Teams that missed the Playoff the previous year have a 28-14 record against the spread in the Divisional Round and Washington may make use of this big number, even if it means opposing strong records that Jared Goff and Dan Campbell have put together.

Los Angeles Rams @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: When you have a Head Coach and a Quarter Back who have won the Super Bowl together, you will always have a chance to make an impact in the post-season.

Despite being set as the underdog, the Los Angeles Rams (11-7) crushed the fourteen win Minnesota Vikings and they have been rewarded with a trip across the country for this big Divisional Round game in the Playoff.

If the regular season game is anything to go by, the Rams will know how tough this assignment would be in perfect conditions. However, the Philadelphia Eagles (15-3) are going to be hosting in cold, snowy weather and that should suit the NFC East Champions who were able to beat Green Bay pretty comfortably here last week.

The conditions won't be something unfamiliar to the Eagles and that gives them a mental edge compared with the Los Angeles Rams who have to go through multiple time zones and play on the road, while also coming out of a warmer climate than what they have to play through in the Divisional Round.

Playing in wet, cold conditions also means a team will look to lean on the Offensive Line and the Philadelphia Eagles will have been keen to do that anyway. You can't blame the Eagles who have an Offensive Line that helped pile up 314 yards on the ground in the road win in Los Angeles.

Saquon Barkley has had a memorable season, but this is a smart player who will do the right thing for the team rather than for his own personal statistics. That really does make it easier for the Offensive Line to want to block for their Running Back, while Quarter Back Jalen Hurts is capable of tucking and running himself.

Stopping the run has been a problem for the Rams and what many believe is an undersized Defensive Line and they are not expected to have a lot of success at pushing back against this Eagles Offensive Line. With the conditions expected, the Eagles will be comfortable moving the ball on the ground and then using the pass intermittently to the big Receivers that are aiding Jalen Hurts.

Los Angeles would love to have Matthew Stafford throwing the ball around the Stadium, but that might be tough in these conditions.

Kyren Williams have been playing really well for the Rams, but he is going to have a tough day in the office if trying to establish the run against this Eagles Defensive Line. So much of the success that Philadelphia have had this season has been thanks to the massive improvements made on the Defensive side of the ball and the Secondary have really been able to clamp down on the passes to make it very tough to sustain drives against them.

Matthew Stafford will have some time in the pocket, but throwing in snowy conditions will not be easy and especially not against this Defensive unit and the Philadelphia Eagles may just roll on.

Jalen Hurts does have a 15-7 record against the spread when facing an opponent with a winning record, while he is 3-0 against the spread at home in the Playoff.

You have to respect Sean McVay and his abilities as a Head Coach, but those teams that have earned a blowout win in the regular season have been very good at covering in the Playoff rematch and the expectation is that the Eagles frank the road win they secured over the Los Angeles Rams in November.

Baltimore Ravens @ Buffalo Bills Pick: Most neutral fans will easily point to the final game of the Divisional Round as being the one they are looking forward to the most and both the Buffalo Bills (14-4) and Baltimore Ravens (13-5) hold genuine Super Bowl ambitions.

The two teams had been set as big favourites to win in the Wild Card Round when hosting, and the Bills and Ravens responded in kind. That has only increased the appetite to see this big Divisional Round game, which is a rematch of an early regular season meeting.

On that occasion it was the Baltimore Ravens hosting and they crushed the Buffalo Bills so will be confident in this rematch- as mentioned in the Rams-Eagles preview, teams that hold blowout wins in the regular season over a Playoff foe have actually performed really well in the second meeting.

On paper it does look like a tough match up for the Buffalo Bills, especially when they have the ball, and so there is going to be a lot of pressure on Quarter Back Josh Allen. The Bills would love to be able to run the ball, but the Offensive Line have not been playing with dominance down the stretch and running the ball against this Baltimore Defensive Line has proven to be tough throughout the 2024 season.

Josh Allen can tuck it and run, but the Ravens have their own dual-threat Quarter Back and so you have to believe the Defensive players understand how best to contain the Bills on the ground.

There are spaces in the Secondary to be exploited, even if the Baltimore Ravens Secondary have stepped up in recent games. However, this is Josh Allen at home and the confidence to spread the ball around means it will be tough for the Ravens to stop the Bills completely, even if they will have an edge keeping the home team in third and long spots.

Pushing around the Baltimore Defensive Line might not be something that the Buffalo Offensive Line can expect to do with consistency, but the bigger test may be in keeping Josh Allen upright and earning him the time to throw the ball down the field. The Bills have done that in recent games, but this time they may not be in front of the chains and the Ravens have a pass rush that have found a way to get home.

Baltimore will be expecting a bigger test from the Bills Offensively having restricted them to 10 points in the regular season game, while they may also believe this Buffalo team are going to be looking to prove themselves after losing 35-10. Derrick Henry and Lamar Jackson crushed the Bills on the ground and the Offensive Line showed that they are still very capable of wearing teams down up front as they proved against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card win.

The Bills Defensive Line have played well down the stretch, but this is a significant test for them and Buffalo have to win at the Line of Scrimmage. Winning in this sense means just forcing Lamar Jackson to have to throw out of Third and Six or Third and Seven and see if they can make plays through the air to change the momemtum.

Zay Flowers has been out of practice and remains Questionable for the Divisional Round game, but Lamar Jackson has others capable of filling the void as long as he is not expected to push the boat out with his passes. Much like Josh Allen, Lamar Jackson has been given a lot of protection from the Offensive Line and that has given him the time to attack teams through the air, although this Buffalo Secondary has played well.

It has all of the makings of a really good game, but the edge has to be with Baltimore who might just dominate the Line of Scrimmage. In close games that could make all of the difference to just flip the field, or create a turnover or two, and the Ravens can frank their big regular season win with another over Buffalo.

Lamar Jackson has had his issues in the post-season, but he won't mind being favoured after the Ravens had initially opened up as the road underdog. The Quarter Back has a perfect 6-0 record against the spread when that has happened previously, while Lamar Jackson has an impressive 26-9 record against the spread if the line is set between plus and minus 3 points.

You have to think that Josh Allen and the Bills will be very aware that they are the home underdog, despite having the better record, and that could inspire the home team. However, the match up looks to be in favour of the Baltimore Ravens and they can be the one that most likely has to travel to Arrowhead for the AFC Championship Game next weekend.

MY PICKS: Houston Texans + 9 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Washington Commanders + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 1 Point @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Wild Card: 4-2, + 1.69 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.17% Yield)

Week 18: 3-5, - 2.31 Units (8 Units Staked, - 28.88% Yield)

Week 17: 7-3, + 3.27 Units (10 Units Staked, + 32.70% Yield)

Week 16: 2-3, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)

Week 15: 6-2, + 3.37 Units (8 Units Staked, + 42.13% Yield)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)

Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)

Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)

Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Season 2024: + 5.99 Units

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2025 (Saturday 18th January)

The tournament keeps rolling ahead and there were some fabulous matches played on Day 6, which only bodes well for the rest of the Australian Open.

We have already seen some top Fourth Round matches put together, but the second week lineup is yet to be completed and that is the focus for Day 7 at the tournament.

A 2-2 record for the Tennis Picks was a little disappointing on Friday, but it could have been worse and the five selections from the matches to take place on Saturday can be read below.

Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Danielle Collins: A really good story usually revolves around a hero and a villain and both are needed.

There is little doubt that the villain in this Third Round match is going to be Danielle Collins after her Second Round celebrations angered an entire nation. Beating a home Qualifier is one thing, but Collins made sure she let the crowd know exactly what she thought of them and you just know those in attendance will be fired up to give some back.

It doesn't help that a popular and easy to like Madison Keys is standing on the other side of the net and the lower Ranked of the two American players begins as the favourite.

Madison Keys has always had the game to challenge for a Grand Slam title, but the mentality has perhaps not been as strong as needed to really get over the line. 2024 was also a tough year for Keys, on the court anyway, but the early form in 2025 is very positive and the World Number 14 has won nine of the ten matches played, including winning the title in Auckland.

Even the sole defeat to Clara Tauson has been franked considering how tough the latter played Aryna Sabalenka here in Melbourne and so Madison Keys will come into the match filled with confidence.

In saying that, Madison Keys might be the first to admit that she has not found her best level in her first two wins in this tournament and she is going to have to step up her tennis when facing Danielle Collins, the World Number 11.

Postponing her planned retirement, Danielle Collins arrives in Melbourne having as a former Australian Open Finalist.

She reached the Final in 2022, but the last two appearances at the Australian Open have been disappointing and Collins has made heavy work of beating two players Ranked well outside the top 100. The serve is not working quite as well as Danielle Collins would hope and that has put pressure on her return, which can be a problem for this American player on the hard courts.

The two players know each other well, which should just help settle any nerves, and knowing what to expect from the other side of the court makes planning that much easier.

Both will be relying on the serve to set up the whole direction of the match, but Madison Keys looks to have a slight advantage in her current level behind that shot.

She has also won the last two professional matches between herself and Danielle Collins and both of those victories have been in dominant fashion. A fast start could really help Madison Keys with the crowd likely to get on top of Danielle Collins and make things uncomfortable as they can be on the court and it could end up seeing the World Number 11 just fall away, allowing Madison Keys to win and cover the line set for this Third Round match.

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 games v Emma Raducanu: The popularity she enjoys amongst the tennis fanbase has certainly helped Iga Swiatek move past a controversial one month suspension for failing a drugs test. The authorities accepted it was an accidental failure, but many of the players around the World Number 2 have voiced their criticism as to what they feel is lenient punishment and arguably a lot less than so many others have had to face.

Some even believe it is Iga Swiatek's status as one of the top female players in the world that has almost forced the authorities to want to sweep things under the carpet, much like the criticism the ATP have faced for their handling of Jannik Sinner's case.

That is actually being challenged by those who conduct the testing, but Iga Swiatek's case sounds like it has been decided, even if some are very disappointed by the outcome.

The Number 2 Seed at the Australian Open is the dominant player on the clay courts, but Iga Swiatek has only ever made one Semi Final in Melbourne. She is clearly capable of performing very well on the hard courts having won the US Open and she has won hard court titles at the Masters level, but Iga Swiatek will know her overall Grand Slam record outside of the French Open needs to be improved.

Iga Swiatek's hard court numbers certainly suggest she has been underachieving at the two Slams played on the surface and the Pole has made another strong start on the surface. A defeat to Coco Gauff at the United Cup is the sole defeat Iga Swiatek has faced this season and her two wins in Melbourne have been solid enough to put her in a deserved favouritism spot for this Third Round match.

Another US Open Champion is standing in the way, but suffice to say Emma Raducanu has not been able to reach those heights again as injury and a loss of form has held her back. The British player had climbed up to World Number 10 eleven months after winning the US Open as a Qualifier, but Emma Raducanu has fallen to 61 in the years since and really struggled for a consistent impact on the Tour.

Underlining the statement is the fact that this is only the second time Emma Raducanu has made the Third Round of a Grand Slam since her shocking success in New York City and she has made the second week just once.

That was at Wimbledon in July 2024, but this is the first time Emma Raducanu will be playing in the Third Round at either the US Open or Australian Open since winning the former in September 2021.

Returning has been the key to her two wins in Melbourne this week, but Raducanu has been struggling with her serve and it is going to be very tough to contain the Number 2 Seed in the draw. She may feel she can return well enough to challenge Iga Swiatek, but failing to protect her own serve will keep the pressure on the lower Ranked player and this has all of the makings of a relatively serene win for the Polish player.

Fending off a host of Break Points helped Emma Raducanu to a competitive straight sets loss to Iga Swiatek on the clay courts of Stuttgart last year, but the last two meetings have seen the higher Ranked player dominate the returning numbers. Emma Raducanu is going to have to save a lot of Break Points to keep this one competitive and the likelihood is that Iga Swiatek will wear her down thanks to her consistency and that may see her pull away for a comfortable scoreboard victory.

Beatriz Haddad Maia v Veronika Kudermetova: Three losses to open 2025 and then dropping the first set at the Australian Open may have left World Number 17 Beatriz Haddad Maia in a vulnerable position as she looked to avoid an early exit.

She rallied against Julia Riera and has now won four sets in a row to rebuild some confidence.

Strong performances at the US Open warm up events and then a Quarter Final run at the Grand Slam would have bolstered Beatriz Haddad Maia and she won the title in Seoul. This made her start to the 2025 season feel disappointing, but the left hander is back on track and has been a solid hard court players in recent seasons.

In the Third Round Beatriz Haddad Maia faces the improving Veronika Kudermetova, a player who had been in the top ten of the World Rankings not so long ago, but who has had a difficult twelve months on the Tour.

Entering the tournament as the World Number 75 may have allowed Veronika Kudermetova to play without a sense of expectation, especially after a relatively mixed build up to the Australian Open. A solid First Round win has been followed by an upset of Katie Boulter, a Seeded player, in the Second Round and so there will be some renewed confidence in her play.

In 2022, Veronika Kudermetova had a very solid year on the hard courts, but she has lost some of her consistency over the last couple of years. It has really been evident when Kudermetova has played against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and over the last twelve months she has a 5-9 record in that setting and that dips to 1-3 whn only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents.

More worrying in this match up is that two of those defeats have been to Beatriz Haddad Maia at the back end of the 2024 season during the hard court swing through Asia.

In those matches in Seoul and Wuhan, it is the World Number 17 who has won all four sets competed and Beatriz Haddad Maia has been able to win 50% of the points played on the Veronika Kudermetova serve. Getting close to that mark again will give the southpaw a huge advantage and likely keep the lower Ranked player under the pump.

Backing it to secure the victories was the Beatriz Haddad Maia serve and she was broken 4 times in those two matches compared with the 9 Break Points converted herself.

A poor start to 2025 prior to the Australian Open may be raising some doubts, but this looks a spot where Beatriz Haddad Maia can be picked to get the better of this 'pick 'em' contest.

MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Iga Swiatek - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Beatriz Haddad Maia @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Eva Lys @ 1.66 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Jannik Sinner - 8.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 13-6, + 7.80 Units (35 Units Staked, + 22.29% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2025 (Friday 17th January)

Learning from past mistakes is key to improving results, but the overriding feeling after the Australian Open in 2024 was that things that could go wrong had gone wrong.

Making up for the tremendously poor tournament was always going to be difficult without having a lot of luck, and so the 2024 season was a really poor one for the Tennis Picks having never recovered from January.

Perhaps the one change made for this year is going with a much stricter selection process- there have been some misses already in the first five days of the Australian Open with the likes of Naomi Osaka winning matches that were on the borderline of being selected.

Ultimately there can be no complaints about eleven winners from fifteen selections and the positive number returned through the first two Rounds of the tournament are welcomed.

However, there are still ten days left in Melbourne and so this has to be seen as a positive start, but just a start.

Third Round matches begin on Friday with the temperatures expecting to be much higher in Melbourne than they have been in the previous two days and that is going to be challenging for players.

So far the upsets have largely been avoided in both the men's and women's tournament, but Daniil Medvedev has joined Qinwen Zheng in being former Australian Open Finalists that have failed to make the Third Round.

Both will feel tremendously disappointed, but plenty of the big names are still going and looking strong.

We have not really seen all four of the top women's Seeds going well at the same Grand Slam, but all look in great shape heading into the Third Round, while the top men's names are still involved outside of Medvedev.

The lineup for the second week of the tournament will begin to be put together on Friday and there are some top Third Round matches set to head out onto the Melbourne Park courts.

Selections from the opening Third Round matches can be read below as we look to push the positive returns further forward.

Ugo Humbert-Arthur Fils over 39.5 games: The chance to play in the second week of any Grand Slam can only build the confidence of those players to reach Fourth Round of the any of the four tournaments played across the calendar year. Being able to do that in Melbourne sets the standard for a long season ahead though and both Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils are very likely to be top 20 Ranked players when the new Rankings are released at the conclusion of the Australian Open.

Those marks means there is also an expectation around the two players to be a part of the Last 16 of any Grand Slam they play and so this is a big Third Round match between two compatriots looking to lead the next generation of French players forward.

Gael Monfils continues to defy his age, but the majority of those that made the headlines in French tennis have moved into retirement and new stars are needed, especially for a nation that hosts one of the four Slams.

After reaching the Final of the Paris Masters at the conclusion of 2024, Ugo Humbert is looking to take the next step his career over the coming eleven months. He has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open where the serve continues to be a big weapon, but Humbert will be well aware that he has not been tested having faced opponents Ranked 145 or lower.

There is no doubt that Arthur Fils will bring a test and there are arguably more expectations on his shoulders than the higher Ranked Frenchman. Part of the reason for that is Fils is still only 20 years old and is set to reach a new career high World Ranking inside the top 20 at the end of this tournament.

Inexperience has been an issue at times, but there is a lot to like about the Arthur Fils game- he can lose focus at moments, which is perhaps why he has needed four sets in each of his two wins in Melbourne, but Arthur Fils has beaten two players inside the top 100 of the World Rankings and that may make him feel he is more 'ready' to compete.

Sometimes in tennis matches between compatriots, it can be hard for the lower Ranked and younger player to deal with facing someone they have perhaps 'looked up to' as they make their own journey onto the professional Tour. So early in the careers you can see some one-sided head to head contest and that is the same for Ugo Humbert and Arthur Fils.

The older of the two Frenchmen had won four in a row against Arthur Fils, culminating in a crushing 6-2, 6-2 win on the hard courts of Canada in August 2024. However, it was Arthur Fils who snapped the losing run against Ugo Humbert by beating him for the first time in Tokyo later in 2024 and that was for the title so a big occasion to come through.

It was also the first time Arthur Fils has been able to have consistent success against the Ugo Humbert serve and he may have the edge in this Third Round match.

Even if he is to come through, the expectation is that we will see at least four sets needed to determine a winner and that may give the players enough time to play the games needed to surpass this total line set.

In a three set win in the Tokyo Final, there were 34 games played in total and both have served well enough in Melbourne through the first two Rounds to expect a competitive and perhaps long Third Round match.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Jacob Fearnley: Andy Murray has retired and Cameron Norrie has taken a big tumble in the World Rankings meaning the pressure is on Jack Draper to become the next big star for British tennis.

At 23 years old, Jack Draper is a top 20 Ranked player and there are big expectations being carried on his shoulders as he prepares for a Third Round match at the Australian Open.

However, the British player making the headlines is less well known.

Jacob Fearnley has taken the American College route towards the professional Tour that many others have trodden before and there will be a maturity about those players when they play on the Tour that much younger players may not necessarily have. Of course there are exceptions to every statement, but Fearnley has played some big time tennis in College, including helping TCU win the National Championship, and that experience looks to stand this British player in good stead going forward.

He is a top 100 Ranked player and is set to make a big jump in the World Rankings having upset Nick Kyrgios and Arthur Cazaux in the first couple of Rounds in Melbourne. The confidence will not be lacking, but Jacob Fearnley will also be well aware that he is facing one of the favourites to win the title in this Third Round match.

Playing on a big court is not going to be an issue after the win over Nick Kyrgios in the First Round, but Alexander Zverev is a player operating at a much higher level than the injury hit Australian.

After making a full recovery from a serious injury, Alexander Zverev has put plenty of wins on the board over the last twelve months and is playing as the World Number 2. The German is still only 27 years old so the chance to win a Grand Slam has not passed him by, and the hard courts might be the domain on which Alexander Zverev could have his best chance to do that.

No one will doubt his capabilities on the clay of Roland Garros either, but the focus is on a strong Australian Open and Alexander Zverev has been untroubled through the first two Rounds. The serve is always going to be a big weapon for the Number 2 Seed, but it is the return that has been catching the eye in the first two Rounds and maintaining those levels will make him very hard to beat.

That is unlikely if you look at the historical returning numbers, but Alexander Zverev will put Jacob Fearnley under some pressure, even if the British number is currently playing very well behind that shot. The service numbers have dipped to holding at around 80% of service games played when facing top 100 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and this is far and away the highest Ranked player Jacob Fearnley has faced on the surface.

He is clearly a player that needs respect and Jacob Fearnley did raise interest last summer when taking a set from the great Novak Djokovic in the Second Round at Wimbledon. That may give Alexander Zverev the nudge to be that much more focused on the player rather than the World Ranking and the World Number 2 can find a way to cover this spread behind a solid straight sets win.

Coco Gauff - 5.5 games v Leylah Fernandez: Both of these players are Seeded at the Australian Open and both are former US Open Finalists- the difference is that World Number 3 Coco Gauff was able to win the title in Flushing Meadows, while World Number 29 Leylah Fernandez came up short in 2021 against Emma Raducanu.

After reaching her career best World Ranking in August 2022 with all of the points picked up from that US Open run, Leylah Fernandez has slipped back to be in and around the top 30 mark.

There is plenty of potential still to fulfil for the 22 year old Canadian, but Fernandez will need to find more consistency if she is going to become a regular feature in the top 20 or even better.

The hard court numbers kind of back that up with Leylah Fernandez a solid, but unspectacular player on the surface. There has also been a clear split in her capabilities against players that are Ranked higher or lower than her with Leylah Fernandez 15-6 against those she is expected to beat, and 6-10 against those she is perhaps not.

Leylah Fernandez feels like a momentum player and four of those six wins against higher Ranked players have come in the same two tournaments. Confidence clearly improves after an upset and Fernandez can keep things going, but there have been a lot of losses to the top players on the Tour and that includes a relatively one-sided defeat to Coco Gauff at the United Cup in the warm up to the Australian Open.

The World Number 3 has been pretty comfortable in her opening two matches in Melbourne and at 20 years old Coco Gauff is one of the stars of the sport.

Five wins at the United Cup means Coco Gauff comes into this event as one of the favourites and she is still one of the top hard court players on the WTA Tour. Her numbers at this event have been solid, but there is still more to come from Coco Gauff and the feeling is that she is playing a little within herself to ensure there is plenty left in the tank at the business end of the event.

A match like this should inspire Coco Gauff to be closer to her best knowing the kind of challenges that Leylah Fernandez could present if the higher Ranked player is not quite as focused as she should be.

It is not much of a concern for that to happen and Coco Gauff might be the player who gets a few more cheaper points behind the serve, which will put her in a strong position to move through to the Fourth Round. The serve was the key to the win over the Canadian at the United Cup and there is marked difference between the returning numbers of the two players on this surface over the last twelve months.

Covering this spread will be tough, but Coco Gauff is capable of finding the breaks of serve to do that and she can be backed here.

MY PICKS: Ugo Humbert-Arthur Fils Over 39.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Coco Gauff - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mirra Andeeva - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 11-4, + 8.48 Units (27 Units Staked, + 31.41% Yield)