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NBA Playoffs 2026- Conference Finals Game 1-4 (Monday 18th May-Monday 25th May)

We are going to be down to the final four teams in the NBA once Game 7 of the Second Round Series between the Detroit Pistons and Cleveland ...

Saturday, 21 December 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury II (Saturday 21st December)

The last big fight night of the year was supposed to take place in Tokyo on Christmas Eve, but Naoya Inoue's defence against Sam Goodman has been postponed for a month after the latter suffered a cut in one of his last sparring sessions that had been scheduled.

Instead we round out the Boxing season in Saudi Arabia where the top two Heavyweights of this generation meet for a second time.

This time it is not for 'Undisputed', but the winning fighter will be considered 'the man' in the Division and the flourishing Heavyweight scene has already got other big fights lined up in the first quarter of 2025.

The rematch between Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury is the headline, but there are some potential future Heavyweight Champions on the undercard.

Ultimately all eyes will be on the main event on Saturday and that is a fight that has captured the sporting headlines during the busy festive period of sports. Both Usyk and Fury have their legacies on the line and it should be another top fight after the original exceeded all expectations.


With the final card of the year set to take place, it has proven to be a decent year for the Boxing Picks.

After the disappointment of 2023, it was important to put a solid year together, even if there remains some for improvement going into 2025 and what is expected to be another big season for the sport.

There are some big cards already in place for next year and more to be announced with the Saudi backers still firmly invested in Boxing.



Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury II

There is little doubt that the Heavyweight Division has really thrived thanks to the huge amount of investment made in the sport of Boxing over the last fifteen months.

Having an Undisputed Fight to determine the King of the Division is clearly something the fans had been demanding for a long time before Riyadh Season managed to put it together back in May.

Now we get to see Oleksandr Usyk and Tyson Fury prepare for the Thirteenth Round of their rivalry, albeit without all of the Heavyweight Titles on the line as they were the first time around.

Activity has been key to keeping the Division going while the top two have been preparing to meet again and there have been a lot of fights that have been made that may not have without the Saudi investment.

When these two Heavyweights met the first time around, I ended up sitting on the fence with the prediction even if my narrow lean had been with Tyson Fury.

And the feeling is that this could be another razor-thin Decision either way.

It is hard to ignore the sight of Tyson Fury being battered around the ring from pillar to post in the Ninth Round of the first fight, but it has perhaps overshadowed the fact that he had been looking like the stronger fighter through the first Eight Rounds. That is not to say he was winning the fight, but Fury looked pretty comfortable with his approach and he did win the Twelfth Round to just remind everyone of his powers of recovery.

Without the Knock Down Tyson Fury might have been the one to edge to the Decision win and he was certainly hurting Oleksandr Usyk at times. The latter showed he has perhaps got the stronger ability to take the punches coming his way compared with Fury, but there is going to be very little between them again and Tyson Fury has previously shown how much he can grow when entering a rematch.

Having that experience of facing Oleksandr Usyk the first time around should help Fury as he looks to turn things around, and it should be noted that Anthony Joshua performed better in the rematch than the original bout with the Ukrainian. Tyson Fury is an overall better boxer than AJ, although the miles on the clock do make you wonder if The Gypsy King is far beyond his peak.

Adjustments make it more difficult to know what to expect from Fury compared with the Champion who will look to pick up from where he left off in May.

Oleksandr Usyk's motivation levels have to be questioned having achieved all he has set out to do, while he may have to be even better than the first match if only to avoid falling victim to a narrow defeat that may set up a lucrative trilogy.

There are simply too many uncertainties to really be confident about this rematch and it is one where I will just sit back and watch the two best Heavyweights since the end of the Klitschko era try to prove they deserve to be called Number 1.


On February 22nd there is a hugely loaded card being put together in Saudi Arabia, but this one for the Heavyweight rematch is perhaps not as deep or as intriguing.

Instead there are a number of younger fighters looking to progress in their own development before headlining big cards of their own and a couple of crossroads bouts.

With the investment being put into the sport, it is a big opportunity for all on the card to impress the organisers and earn further chances in the weeks, months and perhaps years ahead.

One of the expected early bouts features Tyson Fury's friend Isaac Lowe, but he has not really been mixing in top company since losing back to back fights.

Lee McGregor is still on the road back from his first professional defeat, but might just have the edge in this one and can break down his opponent with a potential late Stoppage in his favour.

The two Heavyweight contests on the undercard feature young, up and coming potential Champions taking on opponents who are another notch on their development.

It would be an upset if either Johnny Fisher or Moses Itauma were to be beaten and the likelihood is that both overcome their opponents, Dave Allen and Dempsey McKean respectively, through the first half of the scheduled Ten Rounds.

The same can be said for Peter McGrail and Serhii Bohachuk who take on late replacements for different reasons- the former is in a new fight because of Dennis McCann's VADA failure, while Bohachuk's original opponent, Israel Madrimov, said he was ill having already signed on for a 'bigger' opportunity in February.

A Stoppage for both is expected with Serhii Bohachuk likely to get through his bout before the Seventh Round bell is rung.

MY PICKS: Lee McGregor to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Johnny Fisher to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Moses Itauma to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Peter McGrail to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Serhii Bohachuk to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.25 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 34-61, + 8.59 Units (121 Units Staked, + 7.10% Yield)

Friday, 20 December 2024

College Football Picks- Playoff First Round 2024 (Friday 20th December-Saturday 21st December)

The first twelve team College Football Playoff Bracket will begin on Friday with the First Round games being played across a couple of days.

It is a new situation for teams involved in home games just days before Christmas, but the television companies are expecting big viewing numbers before moving into the Quarter Final and beyond.

The excitement is that the new expanded format will offer more teams an opportunity to play and the twelve teams selected all deserve their spot, even if the likes of Alabama are going to be hugely disappointed in missing out. They would have made it if SMU had won the ACC Championship Game, but that was not to be and the Mustangs were offered the final spot in the Playoff after losing narrowly to the Clemson Tigers.

Fans are looking forward to the Playoff and the new format and the Picks from the First Round games can be read below.

A new thread will be created for each Round of the Playoff through to the National Championship Game next month.


Indiana Hoosiers @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: The new look College Football Playoff kicks off on Friday evening in South Bend with the First Round played over the next couple of days.

We will then move into the Quarter Final around New Year's Day before the Semi Finals and National Championship Game are played in January. The twelve team Playoff is likely to be expanded further in the years ahead, but this is a new era for College Football team and there will not have been many complaints about the twelve that are set to embark on a run towards being crowned National Champions.

That is not to say that there are not surprising schools involved and that is the case on Friday when the Indiana Hoosiers (11-1) make the 200 mile journey to South Bend to take on hosts Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-1). Teams coming out of the Big Ten to compete for National honours is not the surprise, but the Hoosiers were not expected to be one of those names and have put together a special season to earn their spot.

However, there is still something for the Hoosiers to prove having come through a relatively weak schedule with the biggest game being the blowout loss to the Ohio State Buckeyes. Wins over defending Champions Michigan Wolverines and last year's Finalists Washington Huskies deserve some respect, but both of those schools have fallen off the standards set in the 2023 season and so Indiana have arguably not beaten any team of note.

This is a chance to change that narrative against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish who have overcome an upset earlier in the season to take their place in the post-season. Most impressive has been the fact that the Fighting Irish have not only beaten teams, but beaten teams convincingly and they look a real threat to have a very deep run in the Playoff.

Winning this First Round game will move the team onto a date with the Georgia Bulldogs, the SEC Champions, and the Fighting Irish are deserving favourites in this First Round match up.

It is the Defensive unit that have sparked things for the Fighting Irish, while the Offensive Line continues to bully opponents up front and that is going to be the challenge for the Indiana Hoosiers.

Credit has to be given to the Hoosiers Defensive Line for the standard of play they have set all season and even the Ohio State Buckeyes were limited to 4 yards per carry in their big win over Indiana. The Line of Scrimmage is going to see both teams looking to impose themselves when Notre Dame have the ball and a duel-threat Quarter Back in Riley Leonard can help the Fighting Irish to at least play in front of the chains.

The Quarter Back will be asked to manage the game at times and avoid the turnovers that can be such a big part of a tight match up like this one. Riley Leonard has been well protected by this powerful Notre Dame Offensive Line and he will have noted the Will Howard performance for Ohio State, although the fact is that the Indiana Secondary have played well and it will not be a game in which the Fighting Irish can expect to have sustained success.

That will mean looking to lean on the strong Defensive unit that has ground down Offenses that have struggled to find a way to move the ball with any consistency against the Fighting Irish.

One problem for Indiana is that their Offensive Line were not able to establish the run with the same kind of efficiency as they would have hoped when the quality of opponent picked up down the stretch in the regular season. Establishing the run against Notre Dame will be challenging, but the Hoosiers cannot become one-dimensional if they are going to give Kurtis Rourke the opportunity to show off his talents to the nation in a big spot.

Kurtis Rourke might have a bit more time than usual when he steps back to throw the ball down the field, even if the Indiana Offensive Line have had issues in pass protection, and that will give him some chances to make big plays. This is not an easy Secondary to face, especially with Notre Dame's ability to turn the ball over through the air, but Rourke has had a big season and can help his team.

However, it has to be noted that the Quarter Back really struggled when facing the intensity of the Ohio State Defensive unit and this is arguably the second toughest Defense he will have seen this season. It is a potential concern for Indiana and the edge in this one has to be with the home team in a Playoff setting in their tough environment created in South Bend.

An in-State rivalry will be in play here, but Notre Dame look to be the stronger team all around and they may just win at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides to earn the edge in the contest. Covering will not be easy with the line where it is, but the Fighting Irish can make some big Defensive plays to do that and move onto a date with the Georgia Bulldogs in a couple of weeks time.


SMU Mustangs @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The new College Football Playoff format means there is unfamiliar mid-December home games to be played.

It looks like being a cold day at Beaver Stadium, which could impact the teams, but the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-2) and SMU Mustangs (11-2) have plenty of motivation as they look to move through to the Quarter Final Round.

In the days of the four team Playoff, neither of these teams would have expected to be involved having failed to win a Conference Championship and with two defeats on the board, but the twelve team Playoff offers another opportunity for the teams.

The Penn State Nittany Lions have been beaten by fellow Playoff teams Oregon and Ohio State in the Big Ten this season, but those are quality defeats and home advantage looks to be important for them. Having a deep impact in the Playoff is possible with the winner heading into a Quarter Final with the Boise State Broncos, but the Nittany Lions will not want to overlook the SMU Mustangs.

They finished without the Conference Championship after losing to the Clemson Tigers, but the Playoff Committee gave the Mustangs deserved respect as they edged out the Alabama Crimson Tide for a spot in the bracket. Motivation will be easy for the players when they note they are set as a pretty big underdog for this First Round game and the Mustangs may have the Offensive power to at least keep this one competitive.

Being perfectly honest, the Mustangs do still have something to prove having competed in arguably the weakest of the four Power Conferences. There are not a lot of standout wins and the loss to Clemson will have stung as they prepare to face a tough Penn State Defensive Line.

Both teams will be challenged at the Line of Scrimmage by the Defensive Lines that the other will have on the field and that will mean the pressure is on the Quarter Backs that take to the field.

Kevin Jennings has had a strong season for the Mustangs and he has been well protected by the Offensive Line, which will offer him time to make throws into the Secondary. There are not a lot of holes to exploit, but Jennings has to be encouraged by what Oregon were able to do against Penn State in the Big Ten Championship Game.

After announcing his retrun to Penn State for 2025, Drew Allar might just have a bit more support from his Offensive Line as they look to push Penn State into third and manageable spots. The Quarter Back has enjoyed a nice season and establishing the run will be key to just easing the SMU pass rush and give Allar the chance to enjoy another strong day in a big spot.

Interceptions were costly in the defeat against Oregon in the Big Ten Championship Game, but Drew Allar also had over 200 passing yards with three Touchdown passes and that is encouraging for the Nittany Lions. The Quarter Back will have studied the tape from the ACC Championship Game and the successes Cade Klubnik had against the SMU Secondary and it may just see this game lean in favour of Penn State.

The spread is going to be a tough one to overcome, but being at home might just see the Nittany Lions have the edge in this First Round game. The Mustangs should be able to keep things competitive, but the feeling is that Penn State will have the stronger Defensive unit on the field and ultimately they can make a play or two to just push clear in the Fourth Quarter and narrowly overcome this mark.


Clemson Tigers @ Texas Longhorns Pick: There are two losses on the record for the Texas Longhorns (11-2) and that meant failure to win the SEC Championship. Both defeats were to the Georgia Bulldogs and ultimately that has dropped the Longhorns into the Playoff First Round, while the Bulldogs have earned the Bye through to the Quarter Final.

Despite that, and some shaky Offensive play, the Longhorns have the opportunity to host the ACC Champions and Texas are a big favourite to progress past the Clemson Tigers (9-3).

Without the upset over the SMU Mustangs to win the Conference, the Clemson Tigers would not have earned a spot in the Playoff and most will believe that the the likes of the South Carolina Gamecocks, Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi Rebels deserved the place instead. Head Coach Dabo Swinney is not going to be interested in all that and his team have an opportunity to play in the Playoff and try and win another National Championship in Clemson.

There is no doubt that this is a huge test for the Tigers to move the ball against the Texas Defensive unit that has been amongst the very best in College Football.

Against weaker opponents, Clemson have had Offensive success, although the Tigers will point to the performance against the South Carolina Gamecocks. They did only score 14 points in that defeat, but Cade Klubnik had 280 passing yards with an Interception and facing that SEC team will offer some encouragement for the team.

However, Texas have a stronger team than the Gamecocks and they have a Defensive Line that will make it very tough for Clemson to establish the run and thus shift the pressure onto Quarter Back Cade Klubnik. Being behind the chains would mean dealing with a Texas pass rush that has harassed Quarter Backs and that only increases the pressure on Klubnik when it comes to throwing against an elite Secondary.

Avoiding turnovers will be key for the Tigers and they will also hope that the Texas Offensive inconsistency has not been resolved in the time since the SEC Championship Game.

Quinn Ewers will hope his College Football Playoff experiences can helo, but there is some pressure on the Quarter Back who has not been playing at the level that Texas expected. He is going to be healthier with the two week break between games, but the fans are going to look for Ewers to start this game efficiently.

However, the Quarter Back will be happy to have Kelvin Banks returning to the Offensive Line to offer stronger pass protection. A fully healthy Offensive Line will also mean the Longhorns can push the Tigers around up front and establish the run very effectively and this is where the Longhorns can win the game.

Moving the ball on the ground against this Clemson team that has struggled to clamp down on teams up front will just makes things that much more comfortable for Quinn Ewers and the passing game. It should mean a clean pocket for Quinn Ewers and the Tigers Secondary may not be able to force the stops if the Quarter Back does not have to throw too far to keep the chains moving.

It may eventually open things up for the deep shots and the expectation is that the Texas Longhorns will show off their gap in quality compared to the ACC Champions that have lost three games this season. The spread is pretty big and Cade Klubnik could engineer a backdoor cover, but you have to believe the Longhorns Defensive unit can make the big plays to help Texas have pushed clear enough to cover deep into the Fourth Quarter.


Tennessee Volunteers @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: Winning the National Championship would make up for the awful home loss to the Michigan Wolverines, but anything less than that may raise questions about the direction Ohio State Buckeyes (10-2) are going under Head Coach Ryan Day.

Despite that defeat to the Wolverines as a three score favourite, the Buckeyes were locked into a Playoff spot and they will be looking to make amends for the defeat. If they had won, Ohio State might have played for the Big Ten Championship and the chance to earn a Bye through to the Quarter Final, but the team are hoping to move past the defeat to Michigan.

First up in the expanded Playoff is a game against the Tennessee Volunteers (10-2) who had a strong season in the SEC, but who will need more from the Offense if they are going to really challenge for a National Championship.

Defensively they have to believe they can produce similar to the Wolverines in largely keeping Ohio State out of sync and that is likely going to be key to the outcome of the game outright and especially against the spread.

There have been injuries that have impacted the Buckeyes Offensive Line and they struggled to get things going on the ground against the Michigan Wolverines. Even with the break between games, Ohio State might be asking too much to move the ball on the ground against a Volunteers Defensive Line that have been amongst the very best in College Football and so the pressure is likely going to be on veteran Quarter Back Will Howard.

Despite the injuries up front, the Buckeyes Offensive Line have given Will Howard some time to make his throws down the field and there are some very skilful playmakers around the Quarter Back. This will help, but the Volunteers are tough at all three levels of their Defense and Tennessee will certainly feel they can avoid giving up a lot of points.

It is important to do that and not force their young Quarter Back and the Offense to try and keep up on the scoreboard.

Once again the Line of Scrimmage is going to be massively important and the Volunteers would love to find a way to establish the run. The Volunteers Offensive Line have played well this season, but this is another big test for them against Ohio State who have plenty of talent on the Defensive Line.

In their defeat to the Wolverines, the Buckeyes did hold the team to 4.1 yards per carry, but Michigan were allowed to stick with the run in a close game and that is something that the Volunteers will look to do and avoid putting Nick Iamaleava under the scrutiny to make plays against the Ohio State Secondary.

The Tennessee Offensive Line has been much happier when it comes to run blocking than pass protection so they will want to avoid obvious passing situations.

Ohio State have a Secondary that have really played well down the stretch and you would worry for the underdog if they were to fall a couple of scores behind.

However, it is the Tennessee Defensive unit that have the capabilities of keeping this game close and it makes the points being offered to the road underdog appealing. The cold weather is a concern, but that should not prevent the Volunteers from sticking with the game plan and they can keep this one competitive in a hostile environment.

MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 8.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 15: 3-3, - 0.28 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4.67% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Thursday, 12 December 2024

NFL Week 15 Picks 2024 (Thursday 12th December-Monday 16th December)

There may only be four regular season weeks left in the 2024 NFL campaign, but there is little doubt that the biggest news story leading into the latest round of games actually involves College Football.

The Playoff Bracket was set, but even that has been overshadowed by the very surprising decision made by Bill Belichick to become the new Head Coach of the North Carolina Tar Heels.

Most anticipated that Belichick would join a NFL team in the off-season as he looks to pass Don Shula in the list for all-time wins, but apparently there has not been enough interest in the former New England Head Coach to persuade Belichick to wait for offers and ignore the approach from North Carolina.

It is a coup for the Tar Heels and the rumour is that Bill Belichick has only accepted this job with the succession plan in place that would see son Steve take over as Head Coach when his father steps down. The younger Belichick is expected to leave the Washington Huskies and join up with Bill in what has to be one of the most surprising moves made by a College Football school in recent times.

There is no doubting that it is a huge boost for the Tar Heels, who have underachieved and who are looking to join the elite schools in becoming a regular that plays in the College Football Playoff, especially with the new expanded format set to only get wider in the years ahead. And some are still suggesting that there will be some break in the contract that allows Belichick to think again about returning to the professional ranks at the end of the 2025 season.


A lot of the talking heads will place their own opinion on the record during Week 15 of the regular season, but the players are only focusing on a strong end to the season and the chance to play for a Championship.

Some things did clear up after Week 14- the Kansas City Chiefs look like they have a clear edge to the Number 1 Seed in the AFC, while the NFC North might be down to a two-way battle for the Divisional Championship after the Lions edged past the Green Bay Packers.

The margin for error has certainly lessened a bit more with four games left and there are some big games on slate in Week 15 which is going to have an impact on both Conference Playoff pictures.


After a really strong start to the season for the NFL Picks, the fine margins have just turned and it was another tough week for the selections made.

In another week we could have easily finished 4-2, but it was a 2-4 record when all was said and done and that has just extended the poor run a little too long for my liking.

Week 15 offers another chance to bounce back with the selections kicking off on Thursday Night Football with a big NFC West Divisional battle.


Los Angeles Rams @ San Francisco 49ers Pick: Four weeks remain in the regular season and the tightest Division in the NFL will kick things off on Thursday Night Football in Week 15.

All four teams in the NFC West can still see a pathway through to the Playoffs by winning the Division, although time is a factor now. It does also mean that the Divisional games left on the schedule are hugely important for all four teams and you would say exceptionally so for the San Francisco 49ers (6-7) who are propping up the Division and who have a 1-3 record against fellow NFC West rivals.

That means tie-breakers are another factor that could come into play against the 49ers, a team that reached the Super Bowl several months ago and were considered the team to beat in the NFC in some quarters. Injury has made it very difficult for San Francisco, but the blowout win over the Chicago Bears on Sunday has snapped a three game losing run and this is a team that still believes, despite the adversity faced.

Next up is game against the Los Angeles Rams (7-6) who are a game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the NFC West, but who have won two in a row including the back and forth with the Buffalo Bills. The Rams also hold a road victory over the Seahawks and look to have plenty of momentum in their bid to return to the Playoffs, despite playing with some inconsistency for much of the season.

Matthew Stafford's experience at Quarter Back has been hugely important for the Rams and helped them come through games even playing with third or fourth string Receiving options. Going into Week 15, Stafford will be very comfortable with the top names back and there could be another boost for the Offensive unit if Tyler Higbee is activated having recovered from a serious knee injury that has kept him out all year.

The Rams make the relatively short journey on a short week, but there will be confidence coursing through the team after the way they held off the Buffalo Bills in Week 14. There was a stubbornness to persist with Kyren Williams on the ground and the Running Back did have a couple of Touchdowns while working up to 87 yards, although it took 29 carries to reach that mark.

Once again the game plan has to be to attack the 49ers on the ground and there have been one or two holes up front that has prevented the Defensive Line from clamping down on the run nearly as well as they would have liked. Running the ball is key to the while Offensive plan that the Rams have so they will look for Williams to continue to pound the rock and see if that leaves their talented Receivers to find spaces to break into out of the play-action.

An experienced Super Bowl winning Quarter Back is obviously going to help, but Cooper Kuup continues to make things easier for Matthew Stafford. He also has an improving Puka Nacua fresh off a day in which he caught 162 passing yards, and the potential return of Tyler Higbee will be a huge boost too.

However, they will be throwing against a 49ers Secondary that can make plays as long as they are able to get some pressure up front from the pass rush. Nick Bosa looks set to miss out on the short week, which will impact that pressure, but the 49ers may still feel they can rush Matthew Stafford and try and stall drives.

Injuries to the likes of Bosa have impacted the Defensive unit, but it is the other side of the ball where San Francisco have really suffered and look to continue to suffer. Already down to a third string Running Back, Kyle Shanahan is only hopeful that Isaac Guerendo is able to go after seeing both Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason ruled out for the season.

Running the ball has proven to be a very effective way of attacking the Los Angeles Rams, but being down to a potential fourth string Running Back is one probelm. Arguably a bigger one for the 49ers is the continued absence of Trent Williams on the Offensive Line, a player that has paved the way for the run, and it has just made things a little tougher all around for the 49ers.

Patrick Taylor Jr would be next up for San Francisco at Running Back and had decent numbers in limited appearances for the Green Bay Packers before signing with the 49ers. He did have a Touchdown last week and the 49ers will believe the system allows them to plug in a Running Back that can exploit some of the weaknesses on the Rams Defensive Line.

It certainly helps with Brock Purdy back at Quarter Back and he is likely going to have a bit of time to make his plays down the field with the limited pass rush pressure the Rams have produced in recent games. There are key players out in the Receiving department too, but Purdy has decent chemistry with those that are going to suit up and he can help the 49ers keep the chains moving.

Los Angeles somehow won the first meeting between the Divisional rivals and they have won two in a row overall against San Francisco.

However, you do have to wonder how much intensity they can bring after putting a huge emotional effort into beating the Buffalo Bills on Sunday in Week 14. They are looking healthier at a good time, but San Francisco are desperate and the win over Chicago has just reminded the team what they can still achieve.

It could be a close, competitive game, but the feeling is that the 49ers will find a way to establish the more effective running game and ultimately Brock Purdy makes a play or two more than Matthew Stafford to help the home team pick up a very important win to keep their Playoff hopes alive.


Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans Pick: They return from the Bye Week in a really strong position in the AFC South, but the Houston Texans (8-5) would love to wrap up the Division as soon as possible.

They do hold the tie-breaker over their nearest challengers, the Indianapolis Colts, but the Texans face the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens next with both on relative short weeks and the team will be keen to enter those contests with some momentum.

It is only the second year with DeMeco Ryans as Head Coach and CJ Stroud at Quarter Back, but expectations have been raised by reaching the Divisional Round of the Playoffs last season. 2024 has been tough in terms of consistency with injuries perhaps contributing to the feeling of underachievement, but the Texans are pretty much where they would want to be with the Division close to being secured, which would mean at least one home Playoff game coming up.

They have been hit with a couple of key injuries, but the Texans should be rested and ready to go with the run towards the Super Bowl beginning in Week 15.

Next up is a home game with the Miami Dolphins (6-7) who barely kept their own post-season hopes alive in Week 14 with an Overtime win over AFC East rivals New York Jets. Even then, it is going to likely need the Dolphins to win out and hope one of the Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers or Baltimore Ravens slip up in their remaining four games with the Dolphins still two games out of the Wild Card spots.

It is a big ask, but the team and the Head Coach have spoken about focusing only on this Week 15 game with the Dolphins feeling in Playoff mode already. The 1-3 run without Tua Tagovailoa looks like being fatal to their hopes of making the Playoffs and there will be some big decisions that need to be made in the off-season with plenty of Miami fans feeling the window to win a Super Bowl may already be closed for the current roster.

Tua Tagovailoa led the Dolphins to the Touchdown drive to beat the Jets in Overtime last week, and the feeling is that the pressure will be on his shoulders again. In recent weeks the Miami Offensive Line have simply not been able to help establish the run as effectively as they would have hoped and they are not expected to get a lot of change out of this Texans Defensive Line.

Quick passes have been used in lieu of a traditional running game and that has helped Miami, while Tua Tagovailoa may feel there are holes in this Houston Secondary that can be exploited. Those may look a bit bigger after news that the Texans have lost Jalen Pitre for the remainder of the season, but much is going to depend on how much time the Dolphins Offensive Line can give Tagovailoa when he steps back to throw.

If in obvious passing situations, the Houston pass rush has the potential to disrupt drives as long as they can come up and tackle efficiently when the Miami Quarter Back decides to use quick passes to negate that rush.

Miami will feel they can drive the ball up and down the field, but the Houston pass rush might be key if the team are not able to run the ball and become one-dimensional in their play-calling.

That should not be an issue for the Texans who have found a decent balance on the Offensive side of the ball, even if CJ Stroud has perhaps not been as strong as his Quarter Back year. He has not been helped with Nico Collins missing time, but the top Wide Receiver is back for Houston and Joe Mixon has shown there is plenty left in the tank at Running Back.

Unlike Miami, Houston are going to be confident in being able to hand the ball to Mixon and have him keep the team in third and manageable spots, which also means the play-action becomes a real advantage for the Texans.

This should just offer CJ Stroud the time to attack a Miami Secondary that made Aaron Rodgers look more like the Green Bay version of the Quarter Back rather than the one that has been playing for the Jets this season. With Collins and Tank Dell around, the Texans may just be able to sustain drives that much easier than the Miami Dolphins and it may end up giving the home team the edge.

There is a desperation about the Dolphins that can inspire, but it has long been said that 'needing' to win games is not exactly a glowing recommendation about strength of the team involved. Coming out of a Bye Week, the Houston Texans should be healthy and ready to compete and they may just have the balance on the Offensive side of the ball that forces Miami into positions where they have to throw.

This is where the Houston pass rush could come into their own and they can win this game and just move a step closer to locking down the Number 4 Seed in the AFC.


Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints Pick: They return from a late Bye Week and the Washington Commanders (8-5) remain in a very strong position to earn a Wild Card spot into the Playoffs.

Winning the NFC East looks a long shot with four weeks left of the regular season and it would need Washington to win out and hope the Philadelphia Eagles slip up. The top two teams in the Division meet in Week 16, but the Commanders have to be focused on putting some momentum behind themselves rather than any real belief in winning the Division from their current position.

The Commanders could have Marshon Lattimore suiting up for the first time since his trade from the New Orleans Saints (5-8) and they are also facing a team that has lost their starting Quarter Back again. A decision has been made to give Jake Haener his first start for the Saints, and three wins in four have not really been enough to get back into the Wild Card mix.

In saying that, New Orleans are only 2 games out of the lead in the NFC South and so there is still some hope for the Saints.

They will need a couple of upsets if they are going to surprise and win the Division and that has to begin in Week 15 against the Washington Commanders.

An inexperienced Quarter Back can be potentially problematic, but the Saints have to lean on the Offensive Line and hope they can churn out the yards on the ground. Alvin Kamara is going to be the key to their hopes, especially as a safety blanket for Jake Haener in the passing game too, but the absence of Taysom Hill is another blow for this team.

Stopping the run has been an issue for the Commanders all season and they will need to strengthen up if they are going to have a deep Playoff run. However, in this game they may not have the same respect for the passing game as they would if Derek Carr was behind Center, and creeping up to stop the run and leave the young Quarter Back in third and long has to be game plan.

Jake Haener should be well protected, which will help, but you have to believe there will be some inconsistency in the passing game with the inexperience there.

The Commanders are not exactly bringing out a Quarter Back with a host of experiences at the NFL level, but Jayden Daniels came into the League with plenty of expectations and he has largely met those.

It certainly helps playing with this Washington Offensive Line that have helped open up some big running lanes for Brian Robinson Jr. They also know that Daniels is capable of picking up chunks of yards with his legs and the recent problems the Saints have had in stopping the run may be shown up.

Jayden Daniels will be under a bit more pressure when he steps back to throw, but establishing the run should make things a bit more comfortable. The Quarter Back will also be throwing into a New Orleans Secondary that have given up some significant yards through the air in recent games and it should mean a balanced approach to the Offensive side of the ball.

This should be the key to the game and Washington should be ready to compete after the Bye Week following a crushing win over the Tennessee Titans.

It is a big spread, but the Commanders might be able to rattle the New Orleans Quarter Back into a couple of mistakes and that can see them pull clear. There is a big game on deck for the Commanders, but the focus should still be on this one as they look to keep in touch with the Philadelphia Eagles before facing them in Week 16 and that should see the road team come through with a double digit win.


New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: Two of the most disappointing teams in the AFC meet in Week 15 of the 2024 season and with elimination already confirmed.

The New York Jets (3-10) and Jacksonville Jaguars (3-10) will have big decisions to make in the off-season, although the two teams did play hard in Week 14 and that will offer the fans some encouragement.

Some, but ultimately very little encouragement in a disappointing year.

Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets have lost four in a row, but there is no suggestion that the Quarter Back will be shut down for the season. His longer-term plans are a bit more uncertain with many reports suggesting that Rodgers does not want to retire, but also does not want to continue playing for the Jets, but there were some positive signs in the defeat to the Miami Dolphins.

Facing a struggling Jacksonville team will help and the Jets should be able to get something going on the ground, even if Breece Hall is not able to suit up. While the Offensive Line has had problems in pass protection, the Jets are not going to be facing up to the fiercest of pass rushes from the Jaguars and it should give the road team a chance to sustain drives.

The Jets fans have not really had the spark at Quarter Back that they would have hoped when Aaron Rodgers returned, but he had a decent showing against the Dolphins. There is every chance that Rodgers can exploit the issues the Jaguars have had in the Secondary and that gives the road team an edge.

New York will have their first choice Quarter Back on the field, but the Jacksonville Jaguars will have to go with Mac Jones ahead of Trevor Lawrence again. The latter is out for the season, and it has been tough work Offensively without their starter.

It all begins on the Offensive Line and the issues that the Jaguars have had in trying to establish the run, something that will be very challenging against this Jets Defensive Line. This has forced Mac Jones into trying to make plays from third and long, which has been a big ask, and it has meant inconsistent Offensive play.

One of the big disappointments for the Jets has been the play of the Secondary so there may be opportunities for Mac Jones to hit some of his Receivers down the field. However, it should be noted the inconsistency displayed by the backup Quarter Back and Interceptions have been a real trouble for him, which could just give the Jets another edge.

Backing bad teams to win games is never much fun, but the Jaguars look weaker than the New York Jets and Aaron Rodgers can out-duel Mac Jones to lead his team to a rare win.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans Pick: Four losses in five games have likely ended any real hopes of working their way into the Playoffs, but the Cincinnati Bengals (5-8) kept faint dreams alive with the late win at the Dallas Cowboys.

They have to win out and hope for a lot of help from above them, but time is running out rapidly.

Next up is another road game on a short week, but the Bengals are facing a Tennessee Titans (3-10) team that have lost two in a row and who many not be massively focused on this game. That is down to the fact they finish the season with three straight Divisional games and playing spoilers for their rivals might be more important than putting in the effort needed to beat the Bengals.

The Titans will be given a boost by facing this Cincinnati Defensive unit that have struggled to make stops all season. It should allow Tennessee to establish the run and just ease the pressure on Will Levis at Quarter Back by keeping him in third and manageable spots on the field.

The jury remains out when it comes to making a verdict about Will Levis and his long-term prospects of being a franchise Quarter Back for the Titans. Will Levis will definitely appreciate the massive holes that the Bengals have continued to display in the Secondary, although the Quarter Back is expected to be under some duress at times when he steps back to throw and that could be the key to stalling some of the drives.

Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Offensive unit have not had too many issues when it comes to their performance level on this side of the ball and they should be able to keep things going against this Titans team. In recent weeks the Titans Defensive Line have just allowed teams to get something going on the ground and that can only aid the Bengals with Chase Brown hitting the Line hard and making gains on the ground.

He is also an effective weapon coming out of the backfield, while the Wide Receivers continue to shine  in the system.

The Quarter Back has not always been given a lot of time in the pocket, which is one concern for the road team, but Joe Burrow has still found the big passes to keep things moving. With the team likely to be in third and manageable spots, Burrow may have more time than he has been used to and that should help the Cincinnati Bengals as they look to build up some head of steam before the end of the regular season.

It may already be too late to earn a Wild Card spot, but the Bengals can just keep their hopes alive through another week and they can beat a Tennessee team that might not be as focused as they need to be.


Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: The Week 14 performance at the San Francisco 49ers was extremely disappointing, but the Chicago Bears (4-9) are a team that know big changes are coming in the off-season with a new Head Coach to be appointed. That might have factored into the performance, while some players could have been looking ahead to Week 15 and Week 16 when the Bears have an opportunity to play spoiler for the two top teams in the Division.

They will also play the Packers, but there is perhaps more on the line for the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings (11-2).

On Monday Night Football it is the Minnesota Vikings who are hosting the Bears and they still have an opportunity to not only win the NFC North, but to finish the regular season with the top Seed in the Conference.

Merely making the Playoff would have been seen as an overachievement back in September, but the Vikings are here now and ambitions of the players will never have slackened.

Sam Darnold was supposed to be a placeholder at Quarter Back, but credit has to be given to the Coaching staff in Minnesota that he has looked the franchise Quarter Back that other teams had hoped for. He is still young, so at worst case scenario for Sam Darnold is that he is in line for a big contract somewhere.

He is helped by the Coaching staff, the Wide Receivers that Minnesota have and the Vikings Offensive Line that has given Aaron Jones the spaces to burst through on the ground. All of these elements of the Offense are going to be on display, but Darnold also has to be given credit for having the courage to make the plays down the field that has sparked the team.

The Vikings should be able to get things going on the ground, which is only going to open up the dangerous passing game.

In recent games the Bears have not looked the same Defensively as injuries have piled up and a long season moves into the final run. They have not had much success in stopping the run, while the Secondary is also suffering and you have to believe the Vikings will have considerable amounts of joy when they have the ball in the hands of the Offense.

However, we saw in the first game between these Divisional rivals that Caleb Williams and the Bears can move the ball pretty well too.

The Running Backs room is banged up so it may come down to the rookie Quarter Back, but Caleb Williams will note the amount of yards this Minnesota Secondary continue to give up. The one problem with not running the ball effectively is that Williams will left operating behind the Chicago Offensive Line that has not been very good at pass protection and it is always that much more difficult throwing when under duress.

Brian Flores will also know a bit more about this rookie Quarter Back and that may help him put a game plan together to just offer a few more unfamiliar looks. The Vikings may give up a lot of passing yards, but they have also picked up the Interceptions when needed and turning the ball over here might just give them the impetus to pull away for a solid win.

The Bears did force Overtime in the first game, but it should be remembered they were down 11 points with 22 seconds left so a lot went right for Chicago at the end of that game. Another backdoor cover cannot be ruled out, but the Minnesota Vikings have momentum and they may just be a bit more keen to wrap this one up at home without the same kind of drama and a turnover or two may be what it takes to do that.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Washington Commanders - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
New York Jets - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bengals - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 4 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Minnesota Vikings - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 14: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 13: 1-3, - 2.17 Units (4 Units Staked, - 54.25% Yield)
Week 12: 2-4, - 2.17 Units (6 Units Staked, - 36.17% Yield)
Week 11: 2-3, - 1.23 Units (5 Units Staked, - 24.60% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 5.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 72.14% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 8: 4-2, + 1.72 Units (6 Units Staked, + 28.67% Yield)
Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Saturday, 7 December 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez II (Saturday 7th December)

It has been a brilliant year for Boxing fans, although the only real criticism you may feel in the United Kingdom is the lack of really big cards here.

There have been some top nights, but it is clear that Matchroom, Queensberry and Boxxer promotions are all well aware that more nights are needed to keep fans engaged and attending events, especially if there is ever a moment that the Saudi Arabian authorities decide they are going to pull back from the sport.

For now that looks far from the case with another big night planned on Saturday 21st December to round out the year and with the Ring Magazine purchased, while other sources that are important to the sport have had offers, including Boxrec.

Those have been resisted for now, but it is clear there are no immediate plans for Turki Alalshikh to slip behind the scenes.

In fairness to the face of the Saudi promotion, Turki Alalshikh has been able to announce a hugely impressive card for Saturday 22nd February back in Riyadh- it is a card that features three or four fights that could be headline acts alone and with solid support around those, while Alalshikh admitted there are at least two other bouts that had to be removed to just ensure fans are not having to sit down for too long to take it all in.

Those bouts removed will be announced for a March card according to Turki Alalshikh and there are plenty of other big fights that he wants to put together, which can only be good news for fans.

And with Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren both joining forces on DAZN, an announcement for their first quarter fight nights in 2025 are also expected soon, which should only be further positive news.

In reality, by the time the Oleksandr Usyk vs Tyson Fury rematch rolls around later this month, the first quarter of the Boxing calendar for 2025 should have a few weekends filled out and there should be much to look forward to.


For now the concentration is on another big weekend with three decent cards across three different parts of the world.

World Titles are on the line, and World eliminators will be fought out and it all begins in the early evening in London before the action shifts to the United States and Puerto Rico.



Emanuel Navarrete vs Oscar Valdez II

There will be plenty of eyes on the main event in San Juan where Liam Paro defends his World Title against Richardson Hitchins, but the layers are not having an easy time separating the two.

In reality, a World Title may be on the line but it looks like a terrible match up and one that is only really designed to set the winner up for a big bout in 2025.

Liam Paro might have a slight edge, and the hope is that he comes through with a more attractive style compared with Richardson Hitchins, although the latter has plenty of attributes that could see him edge this one. My hope is to be pleasantly surprised by the quality of the fight, but it is not one where my expectatons are all that high.


Instead the main focus from the two late cards will be the one that Top Rank have put together.

The headline is a rematch between Emanuel Navarrete and Oscar Valdez and it really feels like a bout where the losing fighter may struggle to determine a good path back to relevancy.

It is easy to make the argument that this World Title bid means more to Oscar Valdez who lost the first fight with Emanuel Navarrete without really putting a dent in the Champion. The defeat was the second in three fights for Oscar Valdez against truly world class opponents, but he bounced back with a Stoppage of Liam Wilson earlier this season to earn a second crack at the WBO World Title.

Since that win, things have not been the same for Emanuel Navarrete, which has perhaps made this rematch a bit more intriguing considering the strong win he had in the first bout in August 2023.

A Majority Decision draw with Robson Conceicao to retain his title was followed by a very tight defeat to Denys Berinchyk in the Lightweight Division, which has forced Navarrete back to the Super Featherweight Ranks.

It was a poor night for Emanuel Navarrete and there is a concern that the miles on the clock have added up and perhaps put him on the decline in his career. Going back down to 130 Pounds will help, and Navarrete has admitted has work to do in order to improve his technique.

There is also a feeling that Emanuel Navarrete needs to work harder to achieve what he wants, but the power that did not carry up to Lightweight should be much more telling back at Super Featherweight. Some have suggested that ha had not put in the kind of effort you would expect in training camp, but a loss should just refocus the defending Champion and he might be all the better for that.

In their first meeting, Emanuel Navarrete took away some of the Oscar Valdez heart and a hand injury perhaps hindered his chances of pushing through and eventually Stopping the challenger who has come up in weight.

Oscar Valdez is definitely on the back nine of his own career and we will learn how much he still wants it when he has to come through some stormy moments.

The feeling is that Emanuel Navarrete has a bit more in the tank and his extra power should start to break down Oscar Valdez, whose time at this level feels much closer to the end than the Champion. He was getting a little beaten up in the first meeting and that was against a Navarrete with an injured hand with the suggestion that this time the power is a bit more telling and can force a Stoppage in the final quarter of the contest.


The co-main event on this card is another rematch when Rafael Espinoza defends his WBO World Featherweight Title against Robeisy Ramirez.

The defending Champion won the World Title in an upset of Ramirez almost exactly twelve months ago and Rafael Espinoza is tall and awkward for this Division. However, that has led to some suggestions that the unbeaten fighter is thinking of moving up to Super Featherweight and could have potentially had some issues making weight.

His work ethic saw Espinoza overcome a Fifth Round Knock Down and later put Robeisy Ramirez on the floor in taking a Split Decision win.

The former Champion has stated that he was not ready for the first fight and Robeisy Ramirez was perhaps looking past Rafael Espinoza at potentially bigger bouts that could have been ahead. Boxing is a sport where losing focus can end up with a real punishment and Ramirez will be very keen to make up for the defeat.

He can redeem himself, even set as the underdog and Rafael Espinoza's suggestion that he needs to move up in weight after this one could mean the body work is where the title can be reclaimed by Robeisy Ramirez.

The Cuban had Rafael Espinoza hurt the first time around, and the extra focus for this remaatch should see Robeisy Ramirez bounce back and reclaim his World Title with an impressive performance.


Over in London, Frank Warren and Queensberry Promotions have put together another of their 'Magnificent Seven' cards and there are a host of their potential stars in the making on show.

The headliner is a WBO World Title eliminator and there is a real feeling that Warren is hoping to set up a huge Unification between two British fighters at the back end of 2025 if the names on his roster can bring home World Titles over the next six months.

There is a decent undercard, which is expected, and the return of Lawrence Okolie under a third different promotional banner is intriguing, if only because the former Cruiserweight and Bridgerweight Champion has now officially entered the Heavyweight ranks.

It is tough to really have great expectations of Okolie in this Division, but he should get some big opportunities to prove a lot of people wrong over the next year.

He has come in very heavy, but should have too much for Hussein Muhamed and likely gets the job done before the second half of the fight.

Another Heavyweight is making a return from a fourteen month layoff (even though it feels a lot longer than that) and David Adeleye is looking to bounce back from the one-sided loss to Fabian Wardley in October 2023. He is with a new trainer now, Adam Booth, but Adeleye is not going to be entering a tune up.

Instead it is unbeaten Solomon Dacres in front of Adeleye, but the feeling is that the latter's power edge will prove to be telling.

Big things are expected of Sam Noakes who is in the chief support position on the card and he continues his progression towards the World level.

He has earned plenty of experience from his last two fights at European level and he is the naturally bigger man compared with Ryan Walsh, who has veteran experience and will feel he has nothing to lose as the B side.

However, it is far from ideal preparation to have just five Rounds under the belt since March 2022 and Ryan Walsh's record of never being Stopped in a professional ring will be under serious threat.

In reality, Ryan Walsh is unlikely to have been hit as hard and consistently as he will when facing Sam Noakes and this could be a real statement performance in an impressive 135 Pound Division.

The main event was mentioned above and both Denzel Bentley and Bradley Pauls have a massive opportunity in front of them with the winner becoming mandatory for the WBO World Title held by Janibek Alimkhanuly.

This is a rematch that Bentley has wanted ever since pushing the Champion to a defeat on the cards, but his stock dipped after losing his British Title to Nathan Heaney.

While trying not to make excuses, Denzel Bentley has made it clear that all was not right on that night and he has won two fights in a row to earn this opportunity to regain the British Title that was lost.

It is Bradley Pauls who holds it after beating Nathan Heaney in a Twelfth Round Stoppage in a rematch of a controversial draw between the two. Credit has to be given to Bradley Pauls after bouncing back from the defeat to Tyler Denny, but there is a feeling that Denzel Bentley at his best is a significant step up from the level of Pauls, Heaney and Denny.

The Londoner can be frustrated at times depending on the style, but this main event looks like it will mesh pretty well with Pauls looking to come forward.

Ultimately that could lead to his downfall against someone who hits very hard like Denzel Bentley and the feeling is that the former Champion can earn the British Title again and then push for the rematch with Alimkhanuly in the first half of 2025 with the hope that eventually there could be a Unification against Hamzah Sheeraz to be arranged.

MY PICKS: Emanuel Navarrete to Win by KO/TKO @ 3.75 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Robeisy Ramirez to Win by KO/TKO @ 4.50 William Hill (1 Unit)
Lawrence Okolie to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
David Adeleye to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Sam Noakes to Win Between 1-6 @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Denzel Bentley to Win By KO/TKO @ 2.62 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 31-58, + 5.74 Units (115 Units Staked, + 4.99% Yield)

Friday, 6 December 2024

College Football Week 15 Picks 2024- Conference Championship Games (Friday 6th December-Saturday 7th December)

The release of the penultimate College Football Rankings have caused some controversy with the ACC feeling very much disrespected for a second season in a row after Alabama came out ahead of the Miami Hurricanes, despite the latter having fewer defeats on the record.

Things may yet get even worse for the Conference if the SMU Mustangs are beaten in the Championship Game and 'punished' for having the chance to compete for a Championship. Plenty of people believe a loss for the Mustangs would see them also drop behind the Crimson Tide in the final Rankings which are due out next week and the case will soon be made for another expansion of the Playoff.

Teams like the Mississippi Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks have been lobbying for their own spot in the twelve team Playoff, but they are both set to miss out despite the talented teams they have put together.

In reality we will go into the Championship Weekend knowing virtually all but three of the teams that are expected to make the Playoffs- the winner of Boise State vs UNLV will be in, the winner of SMU vs Clemson will be in, and the winner of the Big 12 Championship will be through. The losers in all three of those Championship Games are expected to miss out with the feeling being that the nine teams that have booked spot in the Playoffs being Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and Alabama.

Perhaps there will be a surprise or two next week, but that looks unlikely, while a a win for SMU means the Committee will be under far less pressure.


Tulane Green Wave @ Army Black Knights Pick: There may have been an outside chance for the American Athletic Conference Champion to have earned a place in the College Football Playoff, but recent losses have ended that push.

The final regular season game saw the Tulane Green Wave (9-3) lose to the Memphis Tigers as a big favourite, which ended any lingering hopes of making the twelve team Playoff. Winning a Conference Championship is still a huge achievement for any team that begins the season and that is going to be the motivation for the Green Wave who have to travel to West Point for the Championship Game.

Hosting is the surprising Army Black Knights (11-1) who bounced back from a crushing loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by beating UTSA and earning home advantage for the American Athletic Championship Game. This is not the last game on the schedule for the Black Knights who have their big rivalry game against Navy coming up next week, but the focus right now is for Army to win the Championship in their first season in this Conference.

The loss to the Fighting Irish served as a big reminder to the Black Knights that they still have a considerable gap to bridge to the very best teams in College Football. For much of this season there has not been a big respect for the Army achievements because of the level of opponents they have faced, but they can change all that by becoming Champions on Friday.

Much like the majority of fans, the Green Wave Defensive unit have to know what to expect when the Black Knights line up with the ball in their hands.

Everything begins and ends with the running game and the concern for Army is that they have not been at their most efficient best in recent games. The key for the team is to make sure they are always in front of the chains, but this is going to be another challenging game for the Army Offensive Line against a Tulane team that have found a way to clamp down on the run.

With more investment in stopping Army up front, the Green Wave may feel they can at least force their opponent to become a little uncomfortable and have to take to the air to keep the ball moving. Bryson Daily, the Army Quarter Back, has shown he can have success with his arm rather than just his legs, but there will be pressure around him if he is throwing out of third and long spots, while the Tulane Secondary have played the pass pretty well.

Running the ball will also be a big part of the game plan for Tulane Offensive unit, but the edge may be with the road team because of the balance they have had between the air and ground attack. In recent games the Army Defensive Line have had some difficulty in shutting down the run so there is every chance to believe the Green Wave will be able to keep themselves in third and manageable spots on the field.

Motivation will be easy for Tulane having struggled to get Makhi Hughes going in the defeat to Memphis, but this may be a better match up for the Running Back and the team.

Darian Mensah should have time playing as the Tulane Quarter Back and being in front of the chains would be a huge bonus for him as he attacks this Army Secondary. Interceptions can be an issue for Mensah and he will have to be cautious about the ability of this Army team in turning the ball over, but the mistakes can be easier to avoid without the pass rush pressure and not having to take too many risks to keep the team moving.

The balance Offensively is going to make a difference and you can understand why Tulane have been set as the road favourite, especially as they can be considered the second best team that Army have faced this season.

Army will be motivated to show they are as good as the record would suggest and to show they can compete with better teams after being crushed by the Fighting Irish. They will be disciplined, which makes them a tough out, but the Tulane Green Wave are experienced at taking part in the American Athletic Championship Game and that can help them on their way to a win and a cover.


UNLV Rebels @ Boise State Broncos Pick: They begun the season with three straight wins and there was a lot of excitement around the UNLV Rebels (10-2) before a surprising announcement that Quarter Back Matthew Sluka was going to leave the team. The decision was made regarding payments that was owed to him and Sluka has ensured that he can play for another College Footbal team next season.

In his place, Hajj-Malik Williams should be given a lot of credit for the performances at Quarter Back that have steadied the ship for the Rebels and now offered them one more big opportunity to make 2024 a season that the fans could not have imagined.

Hajj-Malik Williams has over 1700 passing yards with 17 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions on the season and has led the Revels to a 7-2 record. He will be looking to help UNLV earn some revenge on Friday in the Mountain West Championship Game in this rematch with the Boise State Broncos (11-1) having been beaten at home by then in a tight, competitive game at the end of October.

Ten straight wins has put Boise State on the brink of not only making the College Footbal Playoff, but to earn a Bye through to the Quarter Final. They are the favourites to beat the Rebels again and win the Mountain West Championship, but the Broncos will also have a big respect for what is in front of them.

When the Broncos have the ball, it is going to be a battle of wills at the Line of Scrimmage- Travis Hunter is the leading contender to win the Heisman, but the Broncos have been making plenty of noise about Running Back Ashton Jeunty who has dominated on the ground behind the Boise State Offensive Line.

Ashton Jeunty had 128 yards and a Touchdown on the ground in the first meeting with the Rebels, but it was a grind which is a testament to the strength that UNLV have shown on the Defensive Line. Down the stretch of the regular season, the Rebels have really been clamping down on the run and they will certainly feel having any kind of authority of Jeunty will give them a good chance of earning the upset.

Stopping him compltely is unlikely, but there may be a bit more pressure on Maddux Madsen to do a bit more out of the Quarter Back position than handing off to his star Running Back. He has been efficient with his play and Madsen had a solid outing in helping the Broncos edge past UNLV on the road earlier this season.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be a big factor on the other side of the ball too and that is because the Rebels Offensive Line have a tough task in establishing the run against this Boise State Defensive Line. It was only the running ability of Hajj-Malik Williams that helped the Rebels get things going on the ground in the first meeting, but you have to believe Boise State will have a spy on the Quarter Back and the traditional run game may struggle.

In saying that, Williams might have a stronger game throwing the ball considering some of the holes that have been evident in the Broncos Secondary. The expectation is that the Quarter Back is going to have some time in the pocket and Hajj-Malik Williams will be confident having led the Rebels to as much success as he has in difficult circumstances.

Last season the Boise State Broncos did crush the UNLV Rebels in the Mountain West Championship Game and that was on the road, but there is a lot more on the line for the favourites in this one. Both teams know a win will take them into the College Football Playoff, but the expectation is on the shoulders of the home team and this UNLV Rebels team are competitive enough to keep this one close.

Can the Rebels earn the upset? They were only beaten by five points when the teams met at the end of October and the Offensive unit may be even more comfortable with their current Quarter Back. That should help, but the Broncos have home advantage and ultimately it may see them just about come out on top and book their place in the College Football Playoff.


Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Pick: The expansion of the College Football Playoff meant every then Power 5 Conference would see their Champion make the final twelve teams. The collapse of the Pac-12 changed things a little bit, but the Big 12 Championship Game offers a big opportunity for the Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) or the Iowa State Cyclones (10-2).

A Conference that has lost powerhouses like the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns proved to be a fight until the end and the permutations left Colorado and BYU on the outside of the Championship Game, despite the top four all finishing with 7-2 Conference records.

That is not going to be something that bothers the two teams that will be playing in Dallas on Saturday with Iowa State and Arizona State both feeling pretty confident about their chances of making it through to the Playoff. Not many expected this kind of season from the Arizona State Sun Devils having moved from the Pac-12 after a disappointing 2023, but fight straight wins have gotten them into the Big 12 Championship Game.

It is three straight wins for the Iowa State Cyclones who have already made their mark on history having become the first team to ever win ten games in a single season for this school. They are now chasing a first Championship in over 110 years and a win for the Cyclones would see them earn a spot in the new look post-season, which would have been the aim when beginning the season with seven straight wins.

The Cyclones will be keen to establish the run against this Sun Devils Defensive Lie if only to give the team some balance Offensively, but the actual success of this Championship Game is going to come down to the performance of Quarter Back Rocco Becht who has played well enough to join Brock Purdy on an exclusive Iowa State list.

He has over 3000 passing yards for a second time in the Cyclones uniform, which is something that only Purdy had achieved previously, and Rocco Becht will be confident in his abilities having put up 20 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions. However, this Sun Devils Defensive unit is not just pretty good at stopping the run, but have played the pass well too and they are a team that will jump into routes and turn the ball over.

in a game that is expected to have tight margins, those turnovers could be key, although Arizona State will have a very healthy respect for the ability of the Wide Receivers that the Cyclones will trot out onto the field.

There will be some challenges for Iowa State when they have the ball, even with the strong passing game they have shown for much of the season. And there is certainly going to be a big test for the Cyclones on the other side of the ball where their character and grit will be tested by the Arizona State Offensive Line.

Cam Skattebo has been the star of the Arizona State Offense and has piled up almost 1400 yards on the ground with 17 Touchdowns rushed in. The Offensive Line is obviously a big help to those numbers and the Sun Devils could be very excited about facing the Cyclones Defensive Line which has struggled to deal with the ground attacks all season.

Controlling the clock and wearing down the Defense with power running is going to be the plan for the Arizona State Sun Devils, but don't ignore the passing game and the threat that Quarter Back Sam Leavitt offers. He has close to 2500 passing yards despite having to overcome a rib injury and the Sun Devils were making some big plays through the air down the stretch.

Iowa State's Secondary have decent numbers, but some of that is down to the fact that teams have been able to pound them on the ground, while Arizona State's top Receiver is out. That is going to be a blow to the narrow favourite, but the Sun Devils still look the most likely winner and College Football Playoff team out of the two competing.

Both are going to be feeling confident, but the feeling is that the Cyclones may be facing a tougher Defensive unit that matches up pretty well with them.

Add in the struggles to stop the run all season and it is hard to see how that changes in the Big 12 Championship Game, which should mean the Sun Devils are moving the ball with plenty of consistency. That could be key to this big game for both teams as they push for their place in the College Football Playoff, and Arizona State may just edge it to cement what has been a special, unexpected season with more to come in December.


Texas Longhorns vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: A couple of weeks ago it was suggested that some of the top SEC teams that had already suffered multiple defeats would be better off missing out on the Championship Game. However, the Alabama Crimson Tide and their three losses have been slotted into a position where they look certain to take part in the Playoff and so the concern about falling out of the twelve team post-season is not going to be a factor in this one.

Instead the Texas Longhorns (11-1) and Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) can play for the SEC Championship knowing they will have a big achievement in being crowned Champions and will also earn a Bye through to the College Football Playoff Quarter Final.

The losing team will be involved in the First Round, but neither team will be thinking about losing in a rematch of a regular season game that was won on the road by the Georgia Bulldogs.

It was a game that saw too many errors from both Offensive units and the feeling is that the one that cleans up those mistakes the best will come out on top.

Georgia won their final regular season game against rivals Georgia Tech, but needed EIGHT Overtimes to do that and you do have to wonder what kind of impact that is going to have on their performance just several days later. It really is an unprecedented circumstance, even if winning means they will have a spring in their step, and the Bulldogs will be well aware that this is a much tougher test all around.

Carson Beck is in good form at Quarter Back, but he will have a lot to prove having thrown 3 Interceptions in the win over the Longhorns two months ago. He was well protected by his Offensive Line, which is going to be tested by the Longhorns pass rush, but Beck was inefficient having thrown the ball 41 times for the 175 passing yards produced.

The Quarter Back would love the Offensive Line to find a way to establish the run and leave him in third and manageable spots, but running against the Texas Defensive Line has been difficult all season. The Bulldogs did pretty well on the ground in the first game against Texas and they will be hoping they can replicate that and keep Carson Beck out of situations where he has to test this Secondary by holding onto the ball longer than usual.

The Bulldogs will feel they showed enough in the first game to have the confidence to take on the Longhorns again, especially if Carson Beck plays a cleaner game. They will look to run the ball and just keep things grinding out and making sure the Texas Offensive unit is left to cool off on the sidelines.

Running the ball is also going to be important for the Texas Longhorns, especially seeing the successes that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were able to have on the ground last week. In the game hosted by the Longhorns, the Offensive Line were not able to exploit the Bulldogs, but they may feel they are playing them a better time now and keeping Quinn Ewers in third and manageable is just as important for them as it is for Carson Beck and the Bulldogs.

For some of the issues the Bulldogs have had in controlling the run, the Secondary continues to play at a decent level and there has been an underwhelming passing game in Texas in recent games. Quinn Ewers is trying to be a little more careful with the ball, which is very important in these huge SEC games, and you have to believe that Texas will not want to give too much away if they can help it.

Instead the plan may be to have the team operating out of third and manageable and for the Quarter Back to get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers as soon as possible.

Picking a winner is difficult, especially after the way the regular season ended for the Georgia Bulldogs and what kind of energy has been sapped. However, the win in the regular season gives them confidence and this could end up being a game where the teams are looking to avoid giving much away to the other.

The lean will be on the rushing attack and that could end up shortening the game, which has made the total line look a touch on the high side.

It is much lower than when the teams met in October and they combined for 45 points that day- you have to feel that the focus is to limit mistakes this time and both teams will want to pound the rock rather than looking for the Quarter Back to make quick strike throws down the field.

With the College Football Playoffs coming up pretty quickly, the focus could quickly turn to that if a team falls too far behind and then it will be about limiting injuries and not giving away plays that can be used to surprise opponents. The SEC Championship Game does look a good one on paper, but one that may not offer up as many points as this total would suggest.


SMU Mustangs vs Clemson Tigers Pick: The upset suffered by the Miami Hurricanes in Week 14 has cost them not only a place in the ACC Championship Game, but also the College Football Playoff if the latest Rankings are anything to go by.

It leaves the SMU Mustangs (11-1) and Clemson Tigers (9-3) fighting it out for the Championship and a place in the twelve team Playoff.

Controversy could perhaps strike if the Mustangs were to lose- there is a real feeling that the team that loses this one will be left out of the Playoff and that despite the fact that SMU finished the regular season with two fewer losses than the Alabama Crimson Tide. There is plenty of lobbying happening behind the scenes by the ACC, a Conference that feels let down already having seen the unbeaten Florida State Seminoles left out of the four team Playoff last season.

That disappointment was furthered by seeing where the Hurricanes were Ranked following a second loss of the season and having the Mustangs punished for losing in the Conference Championship Game when Alabama failed to make the SEC Championship Game would sting.

Fans of the Mustangs will be hoping that their team can focus on simply winning and crowning themselves ACC Champions. They have not had the most taxing of schedules, which is something the Committee may hold against them if losing to the dangerous Clemson Tigers, especially with Clemson way down the Rankings after losing to South Carolina in their last regular season game.

Dabo Swinney has guided the Tigers to National Championship success before and the opportunity to reach the Playoff will be one that they will be very keen on taking. The upset of the Hurricanes opened the door for Clemson and they have a team that will feel they have 'nothing to lose' having expected the season to be almost over in terms of their major goals.

This is going to be one of the toughest tests that the Mustangs Defensive unit have faced all season, but SMU have plenty of motivation to prove how good they are. The Defensive Line has been one that has clamped down on the run and the Line of Scrimmage looks like being a big part of what will happen on this side of the ball.

Clemson will want to run the ball and keep Cade Klubnik in third and manageable spots and they have been pretty good at getting the Offensive Line to push forward and create running lanes. This will be very important to negate the powerful pass rush that the Mustangs have put together in recent games and just ensure the Quarter Back is not having to allow routes to develop down the field.

Over the course of the season there have bene opportunities to throw well against this SMU Secondary so Klubnik is going to be confident he can have another big game. However, the Mustangs are playing with a different confidence level now and you have to believe they can rattle Cade Klubnik with the pressure up front and that could lead to stray passes to stall drives.

The Mustangs will also want to show they belong in the Playoff with a big performance from the Offensive unit, one that may make up for any defeat they could potentially suffer. The Committee have made it clear that the ACC is not seen as strong as the SEC and so the 8-0 regular season record means little when it has not been build on teams that are Ranked highly by the Playoff Committee.

Losing to a team significantly lower in the Rankings will hurt SMU, but they will want to show they can compete with a school that has regularly played in the post-season and won National Championships.

Kevin Jennings has had a strong year at Quarter Back and his dual-threat capabilities are going to be important for the Mustangs- they have not run the ball as well in recent games, but they are facing a Clemson Defensive Line that has not played Quarter Backs with Jennings' ability all that well and who have struggled to deal with the rush.

Playing in front of the chains is going to be massive advantage for the SMU Offensive unit and there are one or two holes in this Tigers Secondary that can be exploited. It will just force the Tigers to slow the pass rush a touch, while the SMU Offensive Line have been good enough to give Kevin Jennings enough time to find spaces down the field.

Turnovers will be important in this game, but there is a feeling that the SMU Mustangs are better than some people are willing to give them credit for. They have come through all of their challenges in the ACC and even the narrow defeat to the BYU Cougars is not that bad considering how close they came to playing in the Big 12 Championship Game and potentially making the Playoffs themselves.

You know the experience of the Clemson Coaching staff is going to make this a real test, but it is one that SMU can come through and book their place in the College Football Playoff for the first time.


Oregon Ducks vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The move from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten looked to be a big test for the Oregon Ducks (12-0), especially with the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and defending National Champions Michigan Wolverines involved. However, internally, the Ducks felt confident about playing with the teams in this Conference, one that is likely going to be sending four teams to the twelve team College Football Playoff.

The Ducks would love to move into the Playoff as the unbeaten Big Ten Champion, which would come with the Number 1 Seed and a Bye through to the Quarter Final.

They face the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) in Indianapolis in the Conference Championship Game, a surprise after the Ohio State Buckeyes were upset by the Michigan Wolverines in Week 14.

All credit to James Franklin and his Nittany Lions who have four straight games since losing to the Buckeyes and who are going to be playing in the College Football Playoff for the first time, even if they were to lose this Championship Game.

The Nittany Lions will not be thinking about losing with the players seeing the chance to perhaps steal the top Seed for themselves as the Big Ten Champion.

It is also a big 'prove it' moment for James Franklin who has a really poor record Coaching Penn State against top 10 Ranked teams. And make no mistake, this is going to be a huge challenge for the Nittany Lions Offensive unit that scored 13 points against the Ohio State Buckeyes and now take on an Oregon Defense that has played at a consistent, high level all season.

Running the ball against the Ducks Defensive Line has proven to be a tough task for most opponents they have faced this season and the Nittany Lions will know how important it is to try and establish the run. In the main it will be to make things easier for Drew Allar at Quarter Back and not have him behind the chains and then trying to allow Receivers to make their way down the field while trying to avoid a fierce Oregon pass rush.

Throwing against the Oregon Secondary would be challenging without the pressure, but it becomes all the tougher if in third and long and the Ducks knowing what to expect. Drew Allar has perhaps not been as strong at Quarter Back as Penn State may have hoped with just shy of 2700 passing yards and 18 Touchdown passes thrown, and so the key for the Nittany Lions is to not put him under the kind of pressure where he feels he needs to make the big plays to keep things moving.

At the same time, it will also be a big test for the Oregon Offensive unit when going up against the Penn State Defense that has been Ranked amongst the very best in College Football.

There is a similar challenge set for the Oregon Offensive Line, which has been very good at establishing the run but which will have rarely faced a Defensive Line like the one that the Nittany Lions bring onto the field. Winning at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball is going to be the key to the outcome of this Big Ten Championship Game.

Even if the Ducks are behind the chains, they may have a bit more belief in Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back compared with how the Nittany Lions feel about Drew Allar.

This is a very experienced Quarter Back and Gabriel has over 3200 passing yards with 24 Touchdown passes to his name and it does feel there are one or two holes that he could exploit with the talented playmakers around him. Once again, throwing out of third and long will be challenging considering the pass rush pressure that Penn State have generated and a ball-hawking Secondary that loves to pick off passes, but Gabriel's experience has been key for Oregon.

This does look like a good Big Ten Championship Game and the Conference is going to be sending some quality teams to the College Football Playoff with every chance that one goes all the way to become National Champions. Right now the most likely is the Oregon Ducks and they can wrap up an unbeaten season to become Big Ten Champions before moving into the Playoff with a bit more consistent play coming from the Quarter Back.

The Oregon Offensive and Defensive Line may have narrow advantages against their opposite number in this one and James Franklin's poor record against top opponents in College Football cannot be ignored. It may not be a really high-scoring game with the Defenses that are heading onto the field in Indianapolis, but the Ducks have the edge and may have enough to match the Buckeyes margin of victory against Penn State.

MY PICKS: Tulane Green Wave - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
UNLV Rebels + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Arizona State Sun Devils - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns-Georgia Bulldogs Under 50.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
SMU Mustangs - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)
Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)
Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)
Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)
Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)