College Football Week 15 Picks 2024- Conference Championship Games (Friday 6th December-Saturday 7th December)

The release of the penultimate College Football Rankings have caused some controversy with the ACC feeling very much disrespected for a second season in a row after Alabama came out ahead of the Miami Hurricanes, despite the latter having fewer defeats on the record.

Things may yet get even worse for the Conference if the SMU Mustangs are beaten in the Championship Game and 'punished' for having the chance to compete for a Championship. Plenty of people believe a loss for the Mustangs would see them also drop behind the Crimson Tide in the final Rankings which are due out next week and the case will soon be made for another expansion of the Playoff.

Teams like the Mississippi Rebels and South Carolina Gamecocks have been lobbying for their own spot in the twelve team Playoff, but they are both set to miss out despite the talented teams they have put together.

In reality we will go into the Championship Weekend knowing virtually all but three of the teams that are expected to make the Playoffs- the winner of Boise State vs UNLV will be in, the winner of SMU vs Clemson will be in, and the winner of the Big 12 Championship will be through. The losers in all three of those Championship Games are expected to miss out with the feeling being that the nine teams that have booked spot in the Playoffs being Texas, Georgia, Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Notre Dame, Tennessee, Indiana and Alabama.

Perhaps there will be a surprise or two next week, but that looks unlikely, while a a win for SMU means the Committee will be under far less pressure.

Tulane Green Wave @ Army Black Knights Pick: There may have been an outside chance for the American Athletic Conference Champion to have earned a place in the College Football Playoff, but recent losses have ended that push.

The final regular season game saw the Tulane Green Wave (9-3) lose to the Memphis Tigers as a big favourite, which ended any lingering hopes of making the twelve team Playoff. Winning a Conference Championship is still a huge achievement for any team that begins the season and that is going to be the motivation for the Green Wave who have to travel to West Point for the Championship Game.

Hosting is the surprising Army Black Knights (11-1) who bounced back from a crushing loss to the Notre Dame Fighting Irish by beating UTSA and earning home advantage for the American Athletic Championship Game. This is not the last game on the schedule for the Black Knights who have their big rivalry game against Navy coming up next week, but the focus right now is for Army to win the Championship in their first season in this Conference.

The loss to the Fighting Irish served as a big reminder to the Black Knights that they still have a considerable gap to bridge to the very best teams in College Football. For much of this season there has not been a big respect for the Army achievements because of the level of opponents they have faced, but they can change all that by becoming Champions on Friday.

Much like the majority of fans, the Green Wave Defensive unit have to know what to expect when the Black Knights line up with the ball in their hands.

Everything begins and ends with the running game and the concern for Army is that they have not been at their most efficient best in recent games. The key for the team is to make sure they are always in front of the chains, but this is going to be another challenging game for the Army Offensive Line against a Tulane team that have found a way to clamp down on the run.

With more investment in stopping Army up front, the Green Wave may feel they can at least force their opponent to become a little uncomfortable and have to take to the air to keep the ball moving. Bryson Daily, the Army Quarter Back, has shown he can have success with his arm rather than just his legs, but there will be pressure around him if he is throwing out of third and long spots, while the Tulane Secondary have played the pass pretty well.

Running the ball will also be a big part of the game plan for Tulane Offensive unit, but the edge may be with the road team because of the balance they have had between the air and ground attack. In recent games the Army Defensive Line have had some difficulty in shutting down the run so there is every chance to believe the Green Wave will be able to keep themselves in third and manageable spots on the field.

Motivation will be easy for Tulane having struggled to get Makhi Hughes going in the defeat to Memphis, but this may be a better match up for the Running Back and the team.

Darian Mensah should have time playing as the Tulane Quarter Back and being in front of the chains would be a huge bonus for him as he attacks this Army Secondary. Interceptions can be an issue for Mensah and he will have to be cautious about the ability of this Army team in turning the ball over, but the mistakes can be easier to avoid without the pass rush pressure and not having to take too many risks to keep the team moving.

The balance Offensively is going to make a difference and you can understand why Tulane have been set as the road favourite, especially as they can be considered the second best team that Army have faced this season.

Army will be motivated to show they are as good as the record would suggest and to show they can compete with better teams after being crushed by the Fighting Irish. They will be disciplined, which makes them a tough out, but the Tulane Green Wave are experienced at taking part in the American Athletic Championship Game and that can help them on their way to a win and a cover.

UNLV Rebels @ Boise State Broncos Pick: They begun the season with three straight wins and there was a lot of excitement around the UNLV Rebels (10-2) before a surprising announcement that Quarter Back Matthew Sluka was going to leave the team. The decision was made regarding payments that was owed to him and Sluka has ensured that he can play for another College Footbal team next season.

In his place, Hajj-Malik Williams should be given a lot of credit for the performances at Quarter Back that have steadied the ship for the Rebels and now offered them one more big opportunity to make 2024 a season that the fans could not have imagined.

Hajj-Malik Williams has over 1700 passing yards with 17 Touchdowns and 4 Interceptions on the season and has led the Revels to a 7-2 record. He will be looking to help UNLV earn some revenge on Friday in the Mountain West Championship Game in this rematch with the Boise State Broncos (11-1) having been beaten at home by then in a tight, competitive game at the end of October.

Ten straight wins has put Boise State on the brink of not only making the College Footbal Playoff, but to earn a Bye through to the Quarter Final. They are the favourites to beat the Rebels again and win the Mountain West Championship, but the Broncos will also have a big respect for what is in front of them.

When the Broncos have the ball, it is going to be a battle of wills at the Line of Scrimmage- Travis Hunter is the leading contender to win the Heisman, but the Broncos have been making plenty of noise about Running Back Ashton Jeunty who has dominated on the ground behind the Boise State Offensive Line.

Ashton Jeunty had 128 yards and a Touchdown on the ground in the first meeting with the Rebels, but it was a grind which is a testament to the strength that UNLV have shown on the Defensive Line. Down the stretch of the regular season, the Rebels have really been clamping down on the run and they will certainly feel having any kind of authority of Jeunty will give them a good chance of earning the upset.

Stopping him compltely is unlikely, but there may be a bit more pressure on Maddux Madsen to do a bit more out of the Quarter Back position than handing off to his star Running Back. He has been efficient with his play and Madsen had a solid outing in helping the Broncos edge past UNLV on the road earlier this season.

The Line of Scrimmage is going to be a big factor on the other side of the ball too and that is because the Rebels Offensive Line have a tough task in establishing the run against this Boise State Defensive Line. It was only the running ability of Hajj-Malik Williams that helped the Rebels get things going on the ground in the first meeting, but you have to believe Boise State will have a spy on the Quarter Back and the traditional run game may struggle.

In saying that, Williams might have a stronger game throwing the ball considering some of the holes that have been evident in the Broncos Secondary. The expectation is that the Quarter Back is going to have some time in the pocket and Hajj-Malik Williams will be confident having led the Rebels to as much success as he has in difficult circumstances.

Last season the Boise State Broncos did crush the UNLV Rebels in the Mountain West Championship Game and that was on the road, but there is a lot more on the line for the favourites in this one. Both teams know a win will take them into the College Football Playoff, but the expectation is on the shoulders of the home team and this UNLV Rebels team are competitive enough to keep this one close.

Can the Rebels earn the upset? They were only beaten by five points when the teams met at the end of October and the Offensive unit may be even more comfortable with their current Quarter Back. That should help, but the Broncos have home advantage and ultimately it may see them just about come out on top and book their place in the College Football Playoff.

Arizona State Sun Devils vs Iowa State Cyclones Pick: The expansion of the College Football Playoff meant every then Power 5 Conference would see their Champion make the final twelve teams. The collapse of the Pac-12 changed things a little bit, but the Big 12 Championship Game offers a big opportunity for the Arizona State Sun Devils (10-2) or the Iowa State Cyclones (10-2).

A Conference that has lost powerhouses like the Oklahoma Sooners and Texas Longhorns proved to be a fight until the end and the permutations left Colorado and BYU on the outside of the Championship Game, despite the top four all finishing with 7-2 Conference records.

That is not going to be something that bothers the two teams that will be playing in Dallas on Saturday with Iowa State and Arizona State both feeling pretty confident about their chances of making it through to the Playoff. Not many expected this kind of season from the Arizona State Sun Devils having moved from the Pac-12 after a disappointing 2023, but fight straight wins have gotten them into the Big 12 Championship Game.

It is three straight wins for the Iowa State Cyclones who have already made their mark on history having become the first team to ever win ten games in a single season for this school. They are now chasing a first Championship in over 110 years and a win for the Cyclones would see them earn a spot in the new look post-season, which would have been the aim when beginning the season with seven straight wins.

The Cyclones will be keen to establish the run against this Sun Devils Defensive Lie if only to give the team some balance Offensively, but the actual success of this Championship Game is going to come down to the performance of Quarter Back Rocco Becht who has played well enough to join Brock Purdy on an exclusive Iowa State list.

He has over 3000 passing yards for a second time in the Cyclones uniform, which is something that only Purdy had achieved previously, and Rocco Becht will be confident in his abilities having put up 20 Touchdown passes with 8 Interceptions. However, this Sun Devils Defensive unit is not just pretty good at stopping the run, but have played the pass well too and they are a team that will jump into routes and turn the ball over.

in a game that is expected to have tight margins, those turnovers could be key, although Arizona State will have a very healthy respect for the ability of the Wide Receivers that the Cyclones will trot out onto the field.

There will be some challenges for Iowa State when they have the ball, even with the strong passing game they have shown for much of the season. And there is certainly going to be a big test for the Cyclones on the other side of the ball where their character and grit will be tested by the Arizona State Offensive Line.

Cam Skattebo has been the star of the Arizona State Offense and has piled up almost 1400 yards on the ground with 17 Touchdowns rushed in. The Offensive Line is obviously a big help to those numbers and the Sun Devils could be very excited about facing the Cyclones Defensive Line which has struggled to deal with the ground attacks all season.

Controlling the clock and wearing down the Defense with power running is going to be the plan for the Arizona State Sun Devils, but don't ignore the passing game and the threat that Quarter Back Sam Leavitt offers. He has close to 2500 passing yards despite having to overcome a rib injury and the Sun Devils were making some big plays through the air down the stretch.

Iowa State's Secondary have decent numbers, but some of that is down to the fact that teams have been able to pound them on the ground, while Arizona State's top Receiver is out. That is going to be a blow to the narrow favourite, but the Sun Devils still look the most likely winner and College Football Playoff team out of the two competing.

Both are going to be feeling confident, but the feeling is that the Cyclones may be facing a tougher Defensive unit that matches up pretty well with them.

Add in the struggles to stop the run all season and it is hard to see how that changes in the Big 12 Championship Game, which should mean the Sun Devils are moving the ball with plenty of consistency. That could be key to this big game for both teams as they push for their place in the College Football Playoff, and Arizona State may just edge it to cement what has been a special, unexpected season with more to come in December.

Texas Longhorns vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: A couple of weeks ago it was suggested that some of the top SEC teams that had already suffered multiple defeats would be better off missing out on the Championship Game. However, the Alabama Crimson Tide and their three losses have been slotted into a position where they look certain to take part in the Playoff and so the concern about falling out of the twelve team post-season is not going to be a factor in this one.

Instead the Texas Longhorns (11-1) and Georgia Bulldogs (10-2) can play for the SEC Championship knowing they will have a big achievement in being crowned Champions and will also earn a Bye through to the College Football Playoff Quarter Final.

The losing team will be involved in the First Round, but neither team will be thinking about losing in a rematch of a regular season game that was won on the road by the Georgia Bulldogs.

It was a game that saw too many errors from both Offensive units and the feeling is that the one that cleans up those mistakes the best will come out on top.

Georgia won their final regular season game against rivals Georgia Tech, but needed EIGHT Overtimes to do that and you do have to wonder what kind of impact that is going to have on their performance just several days later. It really is an unprecedented circumstance, even if winning means they will have a spring in their step, and the Bulldogs will be well aware that this is a much tougher test all around.

Carson Beck is in good form at Quarter Back, but he will have a lot to prove having thrown 3 Interceptions in the win over the Longhorns two months ago. He was well protected by his Offensive Line, which is going to be tested by the Longhorns pass rush, but Beck was inefficient having thrown the ball 41 times for the 175 passing yards produced.

The Quarter Back would love the Offensive Line to find a way to establish the run and leave him in third and manageable spots, but running against the Texas Defensive Line has been difficult all season. The Bulldogs did pretty well on the ground in the first game against Texas and they will be hoping they can replicate that and keep Carson Beck out of situations where he has to test this Secondary by holding onto the ball longer than usual.

The Bulldogs will feel they showed enough in the first game to have the confidence to take on the Longhorns again, especially if Carson Beck plays a cleaner game. They will look to run the ball and just keep things grinding out and making sure the Texas Offensive unit is left to cool off on the sidelines.

Running the ball is also going to be important for the Texas Longhorns, especially seeing the successes that the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets were able to have on the ground last week. In the game hosted by the Longhorns, the Offensive Line were not able to exploit the Bulldogs, but they may feel they are playing them a better time now and keeping Quinn Ewers in third and manageable is just as important for them as it is for Carson Beck and the Bulldogs.

For some of the issues the Bulldogs have had in controlling the run, the Secondary continues to play at a decent level and there has been an underwhelming passing game in Texas in recent games. Quinn Ewers is trying to be a little more careful with the ball, which is very important in these huge SEC games, and you have to believe that Texas will not want to give too much away if they can help it.

Instead the plan may be to have the team operating out of third and manageable and for the Quarter Back to get the ball out of his hands and to his playmakers as soon as possible.

Picking a winner is difficult, especially after the way the regular season ended for the Georgia Bulldogs and what kind of energy has been sapped. However, the win in the regular season gives them confidence and this could end up being a game where the teams are looking to avoid giving much away to the other.

The lean will be on the rushing attack and that could end up shortening the game, which has made the total line look a touch on the high side.

It is much lower than when the teams met in October and they combined for 45 points that day- you have to feel that the focus is to limit mistakes this time and both teams will want to pound the rock rather than looking for the Quarter Back to make quick strike throws down the field.

With the College Football Playoffs coming up pretty quickly, the focus could quickly turn to that if a team falls too far behind and then it will be about limiting injuries and not giving away plays that can be used to surprise opponents. The SEC Championship Game does look a good one on paper, but one that may not offer up as many points as this total would suggest.

SMU Mustangs vs Clemson Tigers Pick: The upset suffered by the Miami Hurricanes in Week 14 has cost them not only a place in the ACC Championship Game, but also the College Football Playoff if the latest Rankings are anything to go by.

It leaves the SMU Mustangs (11-1) and Clemson Tigers (9-3) fighting it out for the Championship and a place in the twelve team Playoff.

Controversy could perhaps strike if the Mustangs were to lose- there is a real feeling that the team that loses this one will be left out of the Playoff and that despite the fact that SMU finished the regular season with two fewer losses than the Alabama Crimson Tide. There is plenty of lobbying happening behind the scenes by the ACC, a Conference that feels let down already having seen the unbeaten Florida State Seminoles left out of the four team Playoff last season.

That disappointment was furthered by seeing where the Hurricanes were Ranked following a second loss of the season and having the Mustangs punished for losing in the Conference Championship Game when Alabama failed to make the SEC Championship Game would sting.

Fans of the Mustangs will be hoping that their team can focus on simply winning and crowning themselves ACC Champions. They have not had the most taxing of schedules, which is something the Committee may hold against them if losing to the dangerous Clemson Tigers, especially with Clemson way down the Rankings after losing to South Carolina in their last regular season game.

Dabo Swinney has guided the Tigers to National Championship success before and the opportunity to reach the Playoff will be one that they will be very keen on taking. The upset of the Hurricanes opened the door for Clemson and they have a team that will feel they have 'nothing to lose' having expected the season to be almost over in terms of their major goals.

This is going to be one of the toughest tests that the Mustangs Defensive unit have faced all season, but SMU have plenty of motivation to prove how good they are. The Defensive Line has been one that has clamped down on the run and the Line of Scrimmage looks like being a big part of what will happen on this side of the ball.

Clemson will want to run the ball and keep Cade Klubnik in third and manageable spots and they have been pretty good at getting the Offensive Line to push forward and create running lanes. This will be very important to negate the powerful pass rush that the Mustangs have put together in recent games and just ensure the Quarter Back is not having to allow routes to develop down the field.

Over the course of the season there have bene opportunities to throw well against this SMU Secondary so Klubnik is going to be confident he can have another big game. However, the Mustangs are playing with a different confidence level now and you have to believe they can rattle Cade Klubnik with the pressure up front and that could lead to stray passes to stall drives.

The Mustangs will also want to show they belong in the Playoff with a big performance from the Offensive unit, one that may make up for any defeat they could potentially suffer. The Committee have made it clear that the ACC is not seen as strong as the SEC and so the 8-0 regular season record means little when it has not been build on teams that are Ranked highly by the Playoff Committee.

Losing to a team significantly lower in the Rankings will hurt SMU, but they will want to show they can compete with a school that has regularly played in the post-season and won National Championships.

Kevin Jennings has had a strong year at Quarter Back and his dual-threat capabilities are going to be important for the Mustangs- they have not run the ball as well in recent games, but they are facing a Clemson Defensive Line that has not played Quarter Backs with Jennings' ability all that well and who have struggled to deal with the rush.

Playing in front of the chains is going to be massive advantage for the SMU Offensive unit and there are one or two holes in this Tigers Secondary that can be exploited. It will just force the Tigers to slow the pass rush a touch, while the SMU Offensive Line have been good enough to give Kevin Jennings enough time to find spaces down the field.

Turnovers will be important in this game, but there is a feeling that the SMU Mustangs are better than some people are willing to give them credit for. They have come through all of their challenges in the ACC and even the narrow defeat to the BYU Cougars is not that bad considering how close they came to playing in the Big 12 Championship Game and potentially making the Playoffs themselves.

You know the experience of the Clemson Coaching staff is going to make this a real test, but it is one that SMU can come through and book their place in the College Football Playoff for the first time.

Oregon Ducks vs Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The move from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten looked to be a big test for the Oregon Ducks (12-0), especially with the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and defending National Champions Michigan Wolverines involved. However, internally, the Ducks felt confident about playing with the teams in this Conference, one that is likely going to be sending four teams to the twelve team College Football Playoff.

The Ducks would love to move into the Playoff as the unbeaten Big Ten Champion, which would come with the Number 1 Seed and a Bye through to the Quarter Final.

They face the Penn State Nittany Lions (11-1) in Indianapolis in the Conference Championship Game, a surprise after the Ohio State Buckeyes were upset by the Michigan Wolverines in Week 14.

All credit to James Franklin and his Nittany Lions who have four straight games since losing to the Buckeyes and who are going to be playing in the College Football Playoff for the first time, even if they were to lose this Championship Game.

The Nittany Lions will not be thinking about losing with the players seeing the chance to perhaps steal the top Seed for themselves as the Big Ten Champion.

It is also a big 'prove it' moment for James Franklin who has a really poor record Coaching Penn State against top 10 Ranked teams. And make no mistake, this is going to be a huge challenge for the Nittany Lions Offensive unit that scored 13 points against the Ohio State Buckeyes and now take on an Oregon Defense that has played at a consistent, high level all season.

Running the ball against the Ducks Defensive Line has proven to be a tough task for most opponents they have faced this season and the Nittany Lions will know how important it is to try and establish the run. In the main it will be to make things easier for Drew Allar at Quarter Back and not have him behind the chains and then trying to allow Receivers to make their way down the field while trying to avoid a fierce Oregon pass rush.

Throwing against the Oregon Secondary would be challenging without the pressure, but it becomes all the tougher if in third and long and the Ducks knowing what to expect. Drew Allar has perhaps not been as strong at Quarter Back as Penn State may have hoped with just shy of 2700 passing yards and 18 Touchdown passes thrown, and so the key for the Nittany Lions is to not put him under the kind of pressure where he feels he needs to make the big plays to keep things moving.

At the same time, it will also be a big test for the Oregon Offensive unit when going up against the Penn State Defense that has been Ranked amongst the very best in College Football.

There is a similar challenge set for the Oregon Offensive Line, which has been very good at establishing the run but which will have rarely faced a Defensive Line like the one that the Nittany Lions bring onto the field. Winning at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball is going to be the key to the outcome of this Big Ten Championship Game.

Even if the Ducks are behind the chains, they may have a bit more belief in Dillon Gabriel at Quarter Back compared with how the Nittany Lions feel about Drew Allar.

This is a very experienced Quarter Back and Gabriel has over 3200 passing yards with 24 Touchdown passes to his name and it does feel there are one or two holes that he could exploit with the talented playmakers around him. Once again, throwing out of third and long will be challenging considering the pass rush pressure that Penn State have generated and a ball-hawking Secondary that loves to pick off passes, but Gabriel's experience has been key for Oregon.

This does look like a good Big Ten Championship Game and the Conference is going to be sending some quality teams to the College Football Playoff with every chance that one goes all the way to become National Champions. Right now the most likely is the Oregon Ducks and they can wrap up an unbeaten season to become Big Ten Champions before moving into the Playoff with a bit more consistent play coming from the Quarter Back.

The Oregon Offensive and Defensive Line may have narrow advantages against their opposite number in this one and James Franklin's poor record against top opponents in College Football cannot be ignored. It may not be a really high-scoring game with the Defenses that are heading onto the field in Indianapolis, but the Ducks have the edge and may have enough to match the Buckeyes margin of victory against Penn State.

MY PICKS: Tulane Green Wave - 4.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)

UNLV Rebels + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Arizona State Sun Devils - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns-Georgia Bulldogs Under 50.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

SMU Mustangs - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 14: 6-2, + 3.50 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)

Week 13: 4-4, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)

Week 12: 3-6, - 3.23 Units (9 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)

Week 11: 1-5, - 4.15 Units (6 Units Staked, - 69.17% Yield)

Week 10: 1-6, - 4.05 Units (7 Units Staked, - 57.86% Yield)

Week 9: 4-2, + 1.82 Units (6 Units Staked, + 30.33% Yield)

Week 8: 2-4, - 2.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.17% Yield)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)

Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)

Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)

Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)

Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)

Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)

Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

College Football Week 15 Picks 2019 (December 6-7)

The Championship Week in College Football begins on Friday 6th December and will be completed on Saturday 7th December and it is a big moment for those teams chasing a spot in the College Football PlayOffs.

Four teams are firmly in control of their own destiny- the Ohio State Buckeyes and Clemson Tigers are huge favourites to win the Big Ten and ACC Championship Games respectively and I do think any upset could potentially knock them out of the top four. The Tigers are more vulnerable to that as they don't have a very good schedule, but I would be very surprised if either team was to lose on Saturday.

The LSU Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs also know a win will get them in... The difference between those two teams and the first two I mentioned is simple- the Tigers and Bulldogs meet for the SEC Championship in Atlanta this week. Out of the two teams I would hazard a guess that LSU can afford a loss a little more, but even then they would be left vulnerable, while I think a lot of things would need to break Georgia's way to be invited into the top four as a non-Champion with two losses on the record.

A defeat for Georgia is what the likes of the Utah Utes, Oklahoma Sooners and Baylor Bears will be hoping to see as long as they can win their own Championship. Utah are up first in the Pac-12 Championship Game against the Oregon Ducks, while Baylor and Oklahoma will meet in Dallas knowing the Big 12 Champion will be a one loss Champion. I would hazard a guess that the winner of the Big 12 would be moved above Utah even if both are Champions and that they are more likely to be the beneficiary of a Georgia loss.


Things would certainly get more cloudy if Georgia were to beat LSU and win the SEC Championship. In that case I think my feeling is that the Tigers would edge out the Pac-12 and Big 12 Champion even without a SEC Championship to their name with the Tigers schedule looking stronger than the other teams involved.

At this moment I think Ohio State, Clemson and Georgia all winning would present the most problems for the PlayOff Committee to deal with so they must be all hoping for a Tigers win this week. If that happens the most troubling decision would likely be a straight shoot out between the Pac-12 Champion and Big 12 Champion, although a Utah loss on Friday night will only make things easier for them.

Personally I can't really second guess the Committee with any confidence, but if Oregon and LSU are to win this weekend I would think the Big 12 Champion (with only one loss on their resume) would be edging out a two loss Georgia for a top four place.

And then it will be the Seeding that is going to be argued with a likely blockbuster 'Semi Final' between two of Ohio State, Clemson and LSU being set.


Four straight winning weeks came to an end in the College Football Picks as I went 4-5 in Week 14.

That isn't how I wanted to finish the regular season and it has erased some of the positive numbers I had built for the season in that winning run. There is still Week 15 to get through to try and position a solid return to at least have some positive momentum to take into the Bowl Season which begins later this month and that has to be the target through the Championship Games coming up.


Oregon Ducks vs Utah Utes Pick: Two weeks ago this might have been seen as a potential Championship Game that could decide one of the College Football PlayOff places. The Oregon Ducks were upset by the Arizona State Sun Devils and finished the regular season with an unconvincing win over their rivals Oregon State Beavers to earn a 10-2 record in 2019.

For the most part that is a very healthy record for the Ducks who have made it back to the Pac-12 Championship Game, but the two losses means they are not going to be considered for the College Football PlayOffs win or lose on Friday evening. That doesn't mean motivation will be any less as teams don't have a lot of chances to win a Conference Championship, but it is not the play-in game they would have wanted and what it looked like being before the loss at Arizona State.

There is more than a potential Championship on the line for the Utah Utes who will believe they have a chance of pushing into the top four with a win. My feeling is they are going to have to impress to edge out any Big 12 Champion and so there is some added pressure on the Utes even if they are going to try and focus on what they can control which is this Pac-12 Championship Game.

Utah have experience having lost the Pac-12 Championship Game in 2018 when going down to the Washington Huskies in a low-scoring game. However they were banged up twelve months ago and I think Utah come into this game in much better shape and it is no surprise they are favoured, even if the number looks a touch on the high side as far as I am concerned.

The Utes have been pummelling opponents since losing their one game to the USC Trojans and they have finished the season with an 11-1 record. One concern I would have for the Utes is that they have not really played too many teams with winning records this season and the Pac-12 has largely been a weak Conference and, while the same can be labelled at Oregon, this is the toughest team for each team to face.

Oregon and Utah are both going to be leaning on their Defensive units to make the big plays in the Championship Game and conditions at Levi's Stadium should double down on that. Wind and rain is expected which may make throwing the ball very difficult despite the two Quarter Backs in the game and that means the team that shows most desire in the trenches on both sides of the ball is going to be the one that has the edge in this one.

It should be fun to watch when Utah have the ball as they have thrived on being able to pound the rock through Zack Moss who has cracked 1000 rushing yards for the third season in a row. The Utes Offensive Line has opened holes for 5 yards per carry on the season, but this Oregon Defensive Line has been much improved compared with even the strong standards of 2018.

They have remained consistently tough to run against and Oregon will likely be playing closer to the Line of Scrimmage knowing that Tyler Huntley is expected to be a threat running the ball rather than throwing in the conditions. Huntley at Quarter Back and Moss at Running Back can both have some success on the ground behind this Utah Offensive Line which has surprised some by how strong they have been in run blocking.

Even then it may be asking too much for Utah to have consistent success against the Oregon Defensive Line which has been the strength of this team on this side of the ball. Tyler Huntley could throw with some successes too, but I don't think the conditions will be ideal to exploit this Ducks Secondary and it could be a day of making sure you play field position without making a big mistake or two.

Justin Herbert would love to be able to showcase his talents to the watching nation on Friday, but the Quarter Back who is expected to be taken in the First Round of the NFL Draft will have to take what he can get in this Pac-12 Championship Game. Like Tyler Huntley, the conditions do not favour a big passing day from either Quarter Back, but it might not be the worst thing for the Ducks considering how the last two weeks have gone for Herbert.

Like the Utah Utes, Oregon are going to find it very difficult to establish the run against a Defensive Line that is about as good as any in the Conference. The Utes have been able to clamp down on Running Backs, but many expected Oregon to have the best Offensive Line in the Pac-12 and this is a team who have been abel to open some big running lanes.

The similarities between the teams can't be ignored and I really do think this game is going to come down to one or two big plays which decides the outcome. I would not want to be throwing or kicking in the expected conditions so the game could turn on a mistake or two as both Offensive Lines look to impose themselves against two tough Defensive Lines.

There is pressure on Utah who are looking to impress the PlayOff Committee, but any win will ultimately put some pressure on those who will decide the final four in College Football this season.

Utah have been a covering machines since losing to the Trojans and that has to be respected. I also have to take note of Oregon's poor record as an underdog, but this feels like having all the potential of being a low-scoring, tough, grind it out game with very little separating the teams. With that in mind it does make the amount of points being given to the Oregon Ducks look very appealing and that is going to be my play from the opening Championship Game being played in Week 15.


Baylor Bears vs Oklahoma Sooners Pick: The Big 12 Champion is going to have one loss on the record and whoever wins will be putting themselves in a very strong position to earn a spot in the College Football PlayOff too. The Baylor Bears have lost just one game this season and have a chance to redeem that in this Championship Game, while the Oklahoma Sooners can erase the memory of the loss to the Kansas State Wildcats by beating the Ranked Baylor Bears twice in very quick succession.

Whoever wins will also have a close eye on the SEC Championship Game which is going to begin after this Big 12 Championship Game is concluded and the winner will likely be looking for a Georgia loss to have a chance to edging into the PlayOff top four. Things might be even clearer if the Utah Utes have been beaten in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday evening, but Lincoln Riley and Matt Rhule will be urging the players to ignore outside distractions and bring home a Championship.

Playing in the Championship Game has become very familiar for the Oklahoma Sooners who are taking part again having played in each of the previous two since the Conference decided to give their Champion a boost in the eyes of the PlayOff Committee. That is not the case for the Baylor Bears who had been just 8-17 in the previous two years under this Head Coach, although they did leap from one win in Rhule's first season to seven wins in 2018.

Once again they had a bounce as the Bears produced a 11-1 record in 2019, but the Head Coach won't be looking for things to end here and he will also be confident the Bears can earn some revenge for the regular season loss to the Sooners. That defeat came in a game where the Bears blew a huge lead, but they also were the beneficiary of a number of turnovers and it is a factor that really can't be worked out before the game with the bounce of the ball always requiring a bit of luck.

I do think we are going to see a high-scoring game and both Baylor and Oklahoma should have plenty of success when it comes to running the ball. Neither Defensive Line has looked like it capable of clamping down on the Running Backs playing this game and I think that will see both teams move the chains, while the Head Coaches will be preaching a penalty-free game.

That looks to be especially important for Baylor whose players don't have the same type of experience as the Sooners. The latter are playing in a third Big 12 Championship Game in a row, but they also transferred in a Quarter Back in Jalen Hurts who has won a National Championship before.

Out of the two teams Oklahoma look to have a Secondary that can make one or two more plays and that might limit what Charlie Brewer is able to do in this game. I still think Brewer can have similar success to the first game between these teams when he threw two Touchdown passes and ran for two more, but he can't rely on being given some short fields like he was, while the second half collapse was as much to do with the Offensive unit getting stuck in neutral as it was the Defensive unit failing to make key stops.

I don't think Oklahoma will have a huge passing game, but Hurts has shown he can make the big plays at the right time. If the Sooners are running the ball like they can then I do think the Baylor pass rush can be slowed down enough to give the favourites the edge here.

Baylor have to be respected in what has been a very good season and one that has seen one or two teams perhaps looking at Matt Rhule as a potential Head Coach in a bigger job. However I do think the Sooners will play a better game overall and I don't think they will lose the ball as much as they did when these teams first met.

The Sooners have also covered in both Big 12 Championship Game victories and I think they will do that again here.


LSU Tigers vs Georgia Bulldogs Pick: The winner of the SEC Championship Game is going to go on and play in the College Football PlayOff, but neither the LSU Tigers nor the Georgia Bulldogs are thinking of anything but winning this Championship. The Tigers have been the bigger surprise in 2019 having produced a 12-0 record in the regular season which includes a win at the Alabama Crimson Tide and it is going to be very difficult for them to slip out of the top four even in a loss.

Playing for the National Championship will be seen as a by-product of winning the SEC Championship so the Tigers main focus is heading to Atlanta and underline the progress they have made.

The Georgia Bulldogs are much more accustomed to being involved at this time of the season as they play for the SEC Championship for the third season in a row. A late collapse prevented Georgia from winning back to back Championships last season, but they head into the game with one of the top Defensive units in the nation and having a 10-1 record in the regular season.

Injuries on the Offensive side of the ball are going to be a problem for the Bulldogs as they will need to at least match the kind of production LSU are likely going to produce even against the much vaunted Georgia Defense.

D'Andre Swift is banged up at best and there is some suggestion that his fumbling issues might have something to do with that. He didn't even finish the game against rivals Georgia Tech in Week 14 and Georgia know they need their best skill player if they are going to have a chance in this one.

Swift is that player and that was underlined as soon as Lawrence Cager was lost for the season. Jake Fromm is not being helped by the suspension that George Pickens is going to have to deal with in the first half of this game too and it is not going to be easy for an inconsistent Georgia team to hurt the LSU Defensive unit that stepped up their play in the win over Texas A&M Aggies in Week 14.

Over the course of the season there has been a question mark about the LSU Defense which has struggled to stop the run and allowed some big plays through the air. However they look to be rounding into form judging by their more recent performances and I do think the inconsistent Bulldogs Offense is going to have a tough outing especially with injuries and suspensions building up.

Jake Fromm will have to look after the ball and at least play field position and make sure the Georgia Defense are given every chance to be successful.

In recent years the SEC team with the better Defensive unit have been able to come through and win the Championship, but the Georgia Defense are facing an extremely high-powered LSU Offensive unit. They have found a really good balance on the Offensive side of the ball and that balance is going to be important to challenge a Bulldogs team whose Defensive Line has been very stout which has also helped the Secondary hold teams to less than 200 passing yards per game in the last three games.

However Kirby Smart will be the first to tell you that Georgia have not played too many teams with the Offensive power that the Tigers bring to the table. Joe Burrow has played so well that he has leapt up the Draft Rankings for the NFL and is expected to be the Number 1 Overall Pick in April, while the Tigers have bullied teams with their Offensive Line to open up some big running lanes.

It is clearly going to be the key to the outcome of the game as Georgia have yet to allow more than 20 points this season. You do have to wonder if the Bulldogs can completely shut down the Tigers who have been hanging some big numbers on opponents all season and that then shifts the challenge to Jake Fromm and a banged up Offense to at least score enough points to keep this competitive.

I like the Georgia Bulldogs a lot, but I do think the Offensive unit was going to let them down at some point and I feel that happens this week. An improving Tigers Defense can make some big plays to turn the momentum in their favour and ultimately I believe the Offense scores enough points to take the game away from the underdog.

This is an interesting line and if you look around one or two 6.5 lines have popped up. That is the one that I am looking to get involved in as I back LSU to win and cover in the SEC Championship Game and I am happy to take some juice off the price to do that.


Clemson Tigers vs Virginia Cavaliers Pick: Dabo Swinney is far from a dummy and his statements about the lack of respect his Clemson Tigers team are getting from the PlayOff Committee are easy to read through. No one is disputing how good the defending National Champions are, but the Tigers have been playing in the weak ACC which has meant the Committee have taken time to finally place Clemson in a position they are expecting to be in.

Only a defeat would have cost the Tigers a spot in the top four, but only once this season have they even toyed with that idea. The single point win over North Carolina was not impressive, but Clemson have been playing with a chip on their shoulder in recent weeks and that has led to some crushing wins.

You know Swinney is trying to keep his team fired up by declaring how desperate the Committee are to drop Clemson out and bring Georgia in. Ultimately only a fool would believe the Tigers are going to miss the PlayOffs as ACC Champion and Swinney is far from that as he takes his team to a fifth straight ACC Championship Game.

The last two have been blow out wins for the Tigers and they are huge favourites to beat the Virginia Cavaliers who edged out rivals Virginia Tech Hokies to earn their spot in the Championship Game. Bronco Mendenhall deserves a lot of credit for the job he has done as Head Coach of the Cavaliers and they have now improved their number of wins within a single season in all four years under this Head Coach.

Mendenhall has done a fine job with Quarter Back Bryce Perkins who is one of the best dual-threat players in that position in the nation. That is going to give Clemson something to think about, especially as Perkins is a solid thrower and runner and you can't really focus on trying to stop him doing one because he is a lot weaker at the other.

Perkins is going to be challenged too though as Clemson have one of the best Defensive teams in College Football and they have not allowed more than 14 points since the single point win over North Carolina. The pressure is going to build on Perkins because the Clemson Defensive Line have been very difficult to run against and even the improvements of the Virginia Offensive Line are unlikely to make a real difference in this game.

The Tigers get enough out of their pass rush to expect to put Bryce Perkins under pressure if he is throwing from third and long spots, while the Clemson Secondary have held teams to 104 passing yards per game across the last three games.

Simply put it is very difficult to imagine Virginia having a lot of Offensive success in this game and that is going to heap the pressure on their own Defensive unit. For much of the season Virginia have played well on that side of the ball, but the last few games have seen things get tougher for them on that side of the ball and the Cavaliers are facing a top Quarter Back in Trevor Lawrence.

The expectation is that Trevor Lawrence will be the Number 1 Overall Pick in the NFL Draft when he is eligible to be Drafted and his has sixteen Touchdown passes in his last five games. Lawrence has been much more careful with the ball compared with earlier this season, and the Cavaliers have almost allowed 285 passing yards per game over their last three games.

Travis Etienne has given Clemson some real balance on the Offensive unit and I do think he will find some running lanes even against this Cavaliers Defensive Line holding teams to 3.9 yards per carry in recent games. The reasoning for that is that Virginia won't be able to do anything but try and prevent Lawrence from throwing all over them and it might mean the pass opens up the run for Etienne who can have a big game here.

The spread is a huge one, you can't deny that, but Clemson have been blowing out teams as they look to make a point to the rest of the College Football competitors that they are ready to defend their National Championship. The Head Coach has been speaking with an attitude of being disrespected and his players have followed, so it is hard to see anything but a big win for Clemson again.

Clemson's last seven wins have come by margins of 31, 35, 52, 45, 45, 49 and 35 points. While there is a chance of a backdoor cover scuppering the selection, the Tigers did win the 2017 ACC Championship Game by 35 points and in 2018 it was a 32 point margin and I am looking for another big win in 2019.


Wisconsin Badgers vs Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: For much of this season the Ohio State Buckeyes have been the consensus Number 1 team in College Football and they are going to earn that Seed in the PlayOffs if they can win the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday. The Buckeyes are going up against the Wisconsin Badgers and these teams are meeting for the second time in 2019 after Ohio State blew them out in the regular season.

Ohio State finished 13-1 last season and they have won the Big Ten Championship in back to back years, but many expected them to take a step back in 2019 with only 4 returning starters Offensively. However transfer Justin Fields has been far better than most expected and that has sparked the Buckeyes to a 12-0 record in the regular season and with a place in the College Football PlayOff in front of them if they can win this Championship Game.

They will have to handle a Wisconsin Badgers team who have won at least ten games for the fourth time in five seasons and are back in the Championship Game thanks to a blow out of the Minnesota Golden Gophers on the road. The Badgers have won four in a row since losing consecutive games to Illinois and Ohio State and they have looked very impressive in the last three albeit against opponents who are not of the same level as the Buckeyes.

Everything the Badgers do Offensively is placed on the foundation of a strong running game and the challenge for them is to impose themselves on the Buckeyes Defensive Line. Jonathan Taylor has had another strong season for Wisconsin, but Ohio State held him firmly in check when beating them in the regular season and it is up to the Badgers to make the adjustments to get him on track.

If the Badgers are not able to run the ball it is going to be very difficult for Jack Coan the rest of the Offensive unit to get on track in this one. The Quarter Back has been well protected, but Coan is not going to see a lot of spaces in the Ohio State Secondary and those spaces will look a lot tighter if trying to make plays from third and long spots and facing the Buckeyes pass rush pressure.

I do think Wisconsin will be better than in the regular season, but it is still very difficult to see them being consistent. The spread might be a big one for a neutral field game, but Ohio State hold the keys to the cover as long as Justin Fields is at least semi-mobile at Quarter Back.

Fields has been really good all season, but he has banged up his knee and may have to play with a brace and that does change the perception of the Quarter Back. JK Dobbins should still have the chance for another big day running the ball for the Buckeyes especially as Wisconsin have shown signs of wear and tear on the Defensive Line. As long as Justin Fields can at least produce a couple of runs it will keep the Badgers honest and allow the Buckeyes to run the ball and keep the team in third and manageable spots in this game.

The big concern for Wisconsin is that they have also been struggling to defend the pass and I really do think the Buckeyes will have consistent success in moving the ball in this game. Even if Fields is not completely at 100%, he showed how good he is in helping the Buckeyes dominate Michigan on the road in Week 14 and I fully expect them to be the stronger force throughout much of this game too.

Beating the same team twice in a single season is not an easy task for any either professionally or in College Football. The Buckeyes do look considerably stronger than Wisconsin though and while they won't match the 31 point from the regular season meeting, Ohio State should have enough to cover this spread. They held Wisconsin to under 200 total yards in the first game and the Buckeyes Defensive unit can step up and make the big plays in this one too.

MY PICKS: Oregon Ducks + 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 9 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 6.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 28.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Ohio State Buckeyes - 15.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
Louisiana Rajun Cajuns + 6.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Florida Atlantic Owls - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Boise State Broncos - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Week 14: 4-5, - 1.22 Units (9 Units Staked, - 13.56% Yield)
Week 13: 4-3, + 0.64 Units (7 Units Staked, + 9.14% Yield)
Week 12: 6-3, + 2.53 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.11% Yield)
Week 11: 5-3, + 1.55 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.38% Yield)
Week 10: 4-1, + 2.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 54.60% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 8: 4-4-1, - 0.47 Units (9 Units Staked, - 5.22% Yield)
Week 7: 3-3, - 0.24 Units (6 Units Staked, - 4% Yield)
Week 6: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.42% Yield)
Week 5: 6-1, + 4.40 Units (7 Units Staked, + 62.86% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.25% Yield)
Week 2: 5-7, - 2.57 Units (12 Units Staked, - 21.42% Yield)
Week 1: 3-2, + 0.67 Units (5 Units Staked, + 13.40% Yield)

Season 2019: 54-49-1, + 0.21 Units (104 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)