NFL Week 11 Picks 2022 (November 17-21)

I will add a few more paragraphs to this Week 11 thread before the Sunday games, but for now you can read my Thursday Night Football Pick.

Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers Pick: A two Touchdown deficit looked to be the start of the end of the season for the Green Bay Packers (4-6), but a Fourth Quarter rally followed by an Overtime win over the Dallas Cowboys may just have saved the year. It is going to take a monumental change of fortunes for the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings for Green Bay to get back into the NFC North Divisional race, but the victory in Week 10 means the Wild Card positions are still very much in reach.

A short week is perhaps not ideal for the Green Bay Packers having put in a huge emotional and physical effort to beat the Dallas Cowboys.

They are also going to be very much aware of the physical effort needed to take on the Tennessee Titans (6-3) who have won six of their last seven games having beaten the Denver Broncos on Sunday. It is a victory which keeps the Titans in a position of control in the AFC South, but this is another team that would have preferred having a usual week building up to a Sunday game rather than being scheduled to play on Thursday Night Football.

Injuries to key players on both sides of the ball will hurt the Titans, but this is a team that is built in the image of their Head Coach Mike Vrabel meaning they will always put in a full effort. Having Ryan Tannehill back at Quarter Back in Week 10 was a boost, but the game plan remains very clear for the Titans and that is giving the ball to Derrick Henry and looking for the big Running Back to crash through the Defensive Line that is in front of him.

Despite the fact that most Defensive Co-Ordinators will be spending time trying to stop the run, the Titans Offensive Line has been able to bully opponents up front and open the door for Derrick Henry to do the damage on the ground. A couple of players are missing from that Line on Thursday Night Football, but the Green Bay Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run all season and I am not sure things will be much different in Week 11.

Keeping the Tennessee Titans in third and manageable spots is important to Tannehill and the Offensive unit and I do think the Quarter Back will have enough protection to try and keep the chains moving. The Titans will not want to ask too much of Tannehill, but the veteran can do enough to make sure he does not give the game away and handing the ball off to Derrick Henry should be the first and foremost plan as long as Tennessee remain competitive.

They should be able to do that thanks to a Defensive unit that have overcome the absence of key players to continue to make big plays as the 'next man up' philosophy shines through.

Despite having Aaron Rodgers at Quarter Back, the Green Bay Packers have been much better running the ball than throwing this season as a young Receiving corps have struggled to make up for the loss of Davante Adams to the Las Vegas Raiders. Both Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon have been in strong form for the Packers and were key to their comeback against the Dallas Cowboys last time out, but they are not expected to get a lot of change out of the Tennessee Defensive Line.

In recent games the Titans Defensive Line have held teams to 3 yards per carry and they will feel they can control the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball, which is very important. Jeffery Simmons has been a huge part of the Defensive Line, although he could be missing this week, but even then the Tennessee Titans will feel they can clamp down on the rush and then turn to a pass rushing team that can pressurise Aaron Rodgers.

The veteran Quarter Back has to be much happier with the impact Christian Watson was able to make in the win over the Dallas Cowboys, and there are some holes in the Tennessee Secondary that can be exploited. However, there is still an inconsistency to the passing game in Green Bay that is hard to ignore and I do think the Tennessee Titans look worthy of backing with the points being given to them.

I am not a big fan of going against a quality Quarter Back like Aaron Rodgers and the short weeks can play havoc with preparation for all involved. That may be a factor against the Tennessee Titans in this one simply because of the amount of injuries they are dealing with, but I do think Derrick Henry will provide enough of an Offensive spark to back up the strong performances being produced by the Tennessee Defense.

The Packers have a strong record on Thursday Night with a 6-1-1 record against the spread in their last eight in that situation, but they are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven following a win.

Tennessee have some very strong recent trends and have been a covering machine in their last seven games and this really feels like enough points given to the road underdog to be worth backing in this one.

New York Jets @ New England Patriots Pick: There is only one Division in the NFL which has all four teams holding a winning record going into Week 11 of the 2022 season.

The AFC East is going to produce a tough path into the PlayOffs with all four teams looking and feeling pretty good, but that also means the importance of the Divisional games increases tenfold.

Both the New York Jets (6-3) and the New England Patriots (5-4) went into their Bye Week behind a strong win and they are two well Coached teams that should be perfectly prepared for this big Week 11 game. The Patriots do hold a win over the Jets from just three weeks ago, but Robert Saleh will feel his team made some very bad mistakes that day, which ultimately proved costly in the 5 point loss at home.

It might not sound perfect, but the Jets need to make this game much more manageable for Zach Wilson who threw three Interceptions in the defeat at home to New England. He is more experienced, but playing a Bill Belichick Defensive unit has proven to be very difficult for Wilson and the Jets will know they need to make sure this game is competitive and they do not have to over-rely on the arm of the young signal caller.

He did throw for over 350 yards and added two Touchdown passes in the defeat, but the game plan for the road team has to be to establish the run against this New England Defensive Line. You have to believe that Bill Belichick is firmly aware of that plan and will be loading the box and daring Wilson to beat them with his arm, but the Patriots Defensive Line has given up some big yards outside of that first game with the Jets and Zach Wilson could open things up if he is able to avoid mistakes.

Overall the Jets have been a team that can run the ball effectively and I do think they will be better in this one than the first meeting with the Patriots. I expect the Coaching staff would have spent the last couple of weeks working on a few creases to manage the game on the ground and keep their Quarter Back in a position where he isn't pushing to move the chains.

Avoiding mistakes is a key for the New York Jets because they have a Defensive unit that is very capable of shutting down some of the best Offenses in the NFL. They showed that in their last game when holding the powerful Buffalo Bills to 17 points and the overall numbers being produced by the Jets is very impressive.

As long as they are not having to defend short fields, the New York Jets won't feel they have a lot to fear from the New England Offense having held them to under 300 total yards in the home defeat. Mac Jones has yet to really prove he can be a franchise Quarter Back for the New England Patriots, who have not been the same since Tom Brady left, and the Jets do look to match up pretty well with this AFC East rival.

Running the ball is the main ambition for the Patriots, like it is for the Jets, and that is important to keep Mac Jones in a position to have success. However, it has been a real challenge to run the ball against the New York Jets Defensive Line all season, while the Patriots Offensive Line has not been playing as well as they would have liked in recent games.

If the Jets can put the Patriots in a position of third and long, New York will feel they can have the edge in this game and rely on a strong Secondary to make some big plays. It will also unleash what has been a strong Jets pass rush and I expect they could pressure Mac Jones into some mistakes.

One concern is that the Jets have had a poor record against the New England Patriots in recent seasons, while they were blown out off a Bye Week by the Patriots in 2021. However, New England have not covered in their last couple of games when playing out of a Bye Week, while the Jets have covered in their last four on the road.

Having a little more than 3 points looks a value play with the New York Jets who should be able to keep this one close as long as they don't have Zach Wilson giving it away again. This feels like a game that will offer the Jets an opportunity of a backdoor cover at the least, while the New York Jets Defense can contain the Patriots and limit the point output.

Detroit Lions @ New York Giants Pick: Two teams who are going to be playing on Thanksgiving Day in a few days time are playing one another in Week 11 and you have to wonder whether the short week coming up is a distraction. The Detroit Lions (3-6) earned a vital win over the Chicago Bears last week and they are used to playing on Thanksgiving Day, but it is different for the New York Giants (7-2).

They continue to overcome the numbers and the Giants beat the Houston Texans in Week 11, which has taken them to a game behind the NFC East leading Philadelphia Eagles. While the team are going to try and concentrate on this game, you cannot discount the fact they are playing in an unfamiliar spot on Thanksgiving Day and they are facing the Dallas Cowboys in a huge Divisional game.

That game could be a distraction for the Giants, while the simple Offensive game plan means they are not likely to blow teams away. Shortened games are the norm with the New York Giants who are very much a team that will pound the rock through Saquon Barkley and look to wear down the opponents in front of them.

Strong play from the Offensive Line has helped Barkley in his bounce back year, while Quarter Back Daniel Jones is someone who is very comfortable moving the ball with his legs rather than his arm. The Giants should be able to get things going on the ground against the Detroit Defensive Line that has been giving up 5.5 yards per carry and who were pounded on the ground by the Chicago Bears and their dual-threat Quarter Back last week.

Injuries in the Receiving corps have been an issue for the Giants, but Darius Slayton has stepped up for the team and there are holes in this Lions Secondary which can be exploited. As long as the Giants are in third and manageable spots, Daniel Jones won't have to push too hard to keep the ball moving and the New York Giants should be able to produce a positive Offensive return.

As much as the New York Giants are going to be comfortable with the ball in their hands, the Detroit Lions have been pretty strong Offensively even through a difficult season. The Lions Offensive Line should be able to bully the Giants up front and they can establish the run in this game to keep the team in front of the chains and put Jared Goff in a winning position.

There has been a touch of inconsistency with the way the Lions have been running the ball and that is partly down to the fact that D'Andre Swift has not been used as many would have hoped. Injury hasn't helped him, but it may mean Jared Goff has to step back and make some plays down the field, but Amon-Ra St. Brown has been a huge feature of the Receiving corps and he has piled up the yards in the last three games.

New York have been a team that have bent without breaking Defensively, but I do think Jared Goff will be able to get St. Brown rolling in this one.

The Lions did put in a huge effort to beat the Chicago Bears in Week 10 and they had to fight back from a big deficit to do that and I think that is potentially going to catch them out here. I do like the way they have been competing, but the New York Giants have shown they contain opponents in what has been a surprising season and I do think the Giants will have a touch more balance Offensively that makes the difference on the day.

Both have some solid trends behind them, but playing on the road on back to back weeks is a tough task for any team in the NFL. Head Coach Dan Campbell has always gotten the best out of his team and that makes the Lions dangerous, but I do think they could come up short emotionally in this one with the New York Giants improving their 4-1 record against the spread in their last five games at home.

I am of the mind that the New York Giants hold an over-inflated record, but I think they will be able to control the clock and ultimately do enough to beat the Lions by around a Touchdown mark, assuming the Giants won't blow a big lead like the Chicago Bears did.

Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This was a game supposed to be hosted by the Buffalo Bills (6-3), but extreme weather conditions have led to the relatively extreme decision to move this game to Detroit. The fact that the Bills are on the short week with a Thanksgiving Day game coming up on Thursday meant it wasn't really feasible for the game to be hosted by Buffalo on Monday or Tuesday and so the decision was made to relocate in Week 11.

In a quirk in the schedule, Buffalo will now be playing back to back games in Detroit with a game against the Lions following this one with the Cleveland Browns (3-6). However, Sean McDermott and the Bills will be travelling back and forth between Detroit and home for the next few days in a bid to try and keep their routine as consistent as possible.

This is a big game for Buffalo who have lost back to back games to fall to third in the AFC East as well as falling a game behind the Kansas City Chiefs who hold the current Number 1 Seed in the Conference. After winning on the road in Kansas City, the Bills Mafia would have been hoping to see their team secure home field through the PlayOffs, but work has to be done to turn things around.

Josh Allen has admitted that he needs to take care of his arm having picked up an injury that had him questionable to suit up last week- that means practice sessions are perhaps not as tough as they would be for the franchise Quarter Back. I don't think that is the reason he has been guilty of throwing some really bad Interceptions in the last couple of defeats to the New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings, but Allen admits he needs to clean up his game to get the Bills back on track.

Playing indoors is expected to suit this Buffalo Offensive unit right down to the ground and they are facing a Browns Defense that was mercilessly torched by the Miami Dolphins last week. Coming out of their Bye Week, Cleveland disappointed and they may not have left enough time for Deashaun Watson to bail them out when he returns in a couple of weeks time.

After giving up almost 500 yards of total Offense last week, I do have to believe the Cleveland Browns will be much stronger this time around. A problem for them has been the struggle to stop the run and I have little doubt that Buffalo can rip off some big gains in this one through Devin Singletary and the ability of Josh Allen to tuck the ball and make huge plays on the ground.

It does open up the Secondary to be attacked, while also making sure the Cleveland pass rush cannot disrupt the game, and last week the Browns struggled to slow down the Miami Dolphins. I still think the Buffalo Bills are the top Offensive team in the AFC and I think they can pick up where their Divisional rivals left off by establishing the run and then having Josh Allen throw to the likes of Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs down the field.

A more pertinent question for the Browns is whether they can find the Offensive success this week to try and stay with the Buffalo Bills.

They are being given a lot more points than they were on the road against the Miami Dolphins in Week 10, but Jacoby Brissett is going to have to make more plays than he did in that defeat. First and foremost the game plan for the Browns is to establish the run and to control the clock doing so, but they showed last week it is much tougher for them when they are behind by a couple of scores and things can quickly slip away from them.

Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt can have success in this one when you think of the recent struggles the Buffalo Defensive Line have had in stopping the run. In their last three games, the Bills have almost given up 6 yards per carry with the likes of the Green Bay Packers, New York Jets and Minnesota Vikings racking up big numbers on the ground.

That will be music to the ears of the Browns as long as this game is close, but the Offensive Line have not been as productive when it comes to protecting Jacoby Brissett when he drops back to throw compared with their ability to pave the road for the Running Backs. If the Browns are behind the chains, Brissett will be under pressure from the pass rush, while his inconsistencies throwing the ball could be a problem against this injury-hit, but still productive Buffalo Secondary.

Unlike the Vikings, Cleveland don't really have the same all around threat when it comes to throwing the ball. However, Amari Cooper may feel he can offer his Quarter Back plenty of support as Justin Jefferson did for Kirk Cousins in Week 10, and it may give the Browns the chance for a backdoor cover.

I do think Cleveland could be dangerous, but the indoor conditions should suit Buffalo right down to the ground.

Josh Allen has not had the best record against the spread when suffering back to back losses, but the Bills did cover in that lone situation in 2021 and I think this is a team that will be focused in putting in a big performance.

You do have to expect a reaction to the blow out loss suffered last week, but Kevin Stefanski has only guided Cleveland to a 1-5 record against the spread in the last six games after a double digit defeat. The Browns are also just 4-9 against the spread in their last thirteen against AFC opponents.

Buffalo have a 4-1-1 record against the spread in their last six against the Cleveland Browns and I think they have the Offensive firepower to get into a double digit lead and then force a few mistakes out of Jacoby Brissett on their way to getting back on track here.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos Pick: There is a huge AFC West game taking place in Week 11 with the two top teams in the Division facing off in Los Angeles, but the other Divisional game is not really going to be attracting the same sort of attention. Two new Head Coaches are already under pressure after what has been underwhelming seasons at the Denver Broncos (3-6) and the Las Vegas Raiders (2-7).

Last season, the Las Vegas Raiders finished with ten regular season wins which took them into the PlayOffs, but Josh McDaniels has struggled in his second Head Coaching role. He did not perform as expected when he was the Head Coach of the Denver Broncos either and fans are already calling on the Raiders to end this experiment before the end of McDaniels' first season in charge.

The losses have been piling up, but owner Mark Davis has suggested he is going to stick with the under pressure Head Coach, although that decision could come under the microscope even further if the Raiders keep losing. One of their rare successes in 2022 was the win over the Denver Broncos in Week 4, but the performances have not taken much inspiration from that victory and the Raiders have lost three in a row.

Things have not been much better for Nathaniel Hackett in charge of the Denver Broncos as the big trade for Russell Wilson has proven to be a dud. The Offense has struggled with Wilson at Quarter Back and the defeat to the Tennessee Titans in Week 10 means the loser of this game can begin thinking about next season.

Russell Wilson has been a big disappointment and the Denver Broncos have not been helped with some key injuries to skill players around him. Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler are expected to be missing for the Broncos this week so the team will lean on the Defensive Line and hope they can open up some holes up front for the likes of Melvin Gordon and Latavius Murray.

Denver could not run the ball effectively against the Tennessee Titans, but that Defensive Line is considerably stronger than the one the Raiders will run onto the field and I think the Broncos could at least have a bit more success in this game. Regardless, they also need much more efficient play from Russell Wilson, who could finally have a little bit more time in the pocket than he has become used to and that should see the veteran Quarter Back put up some decent numbers when throwing the ball.

Finding a consistent Receiver is the bigger challenge for Russell Wilson as he looks to prove to the upper management that his deal is not one that the Broncos should regret going forward. A strong end to the season will at least offer that encouragement as Denver look for Wilson to make enough plays that the Defensive unit can back them up.

There has been nothing wrong with Denver on this side of the ball, but the one big weakness has been stopping the run and Josh Jacobs could have another big game against them. The Raiders Offensive Line have not been at their best in recent games, but they should be able to establish the run against the Denver Defensive Line which allowed Jacobs to pile up 144 yards in their first meeting and have allowed the last three opponents to average 5.2 yards per carry.

In recent games the Raiders Offensive Line have struggled to open holes for Jacobs, but this is a chance to bounce back.

This is so important for Las Vegas as Derek Carr continues to voice his frustrations with the way the season has gone for his team. The trade for Davante Adams was supposed to open things up for the Raiders and give them a real balance Offensively, but Line issues have meant protection has broken down and the inconsistency of the Offense has cost Las Vegas.

Derek Carr may get a little more time if Josh Jacobs can run the ball efficiently, but throwing into this Denver Secondary will be difficult anyway. The inconsistent passing game is not really one that can be trusted and this has the makings of a low-scoring game, although you do wonder how much the players are willing to give for Josh McDaniels after all of the rumours about his future.

I do think that has to be a factor in this game as the Las Vegas Raiders look to improve their 1-5 record against the spread in their last six road games. The Raiders have tended to play well against their Divisional rivals, but they are also 1-7 against the spread in their last eight when playing a team with a losing record.

Denver are hardly pulling up trees at the window, but they are 5-1 against the spread in their last six when hosting a team with a losing record on the road and I think Russell Wilson may do just enough to lead his team to a win here. Both have issues on the Defensive Line, but the Raiders have one or two more holes in the Secondary which can be exploited by the Broncos and I think it will lead to a narrow win for Nathaniel Hackett and push Josh McDaniels a little closer to another early exit when Head Coach in the AFC West.

Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: You could see the visible frustration of Mike McCarthy on the sidelines, but everyone associated with the Dallas Cowboys (6-3) will know they blew a big opportunity to win at the Green Bay Packers in Week 10. A double digit lead and with the Defensive unit they have, the Cowboys could not have envisioned allowing a struggling Aaron Rodgers back into the game as they did, although the Week at least ended with the Philadelphia Eagles losing to keep the Cowboys 2 games behind the Division leaders.

With a big game looming on Thanksgiving Day against the New York Giants, the Dallas Cowboys head out on the road against another NFC North team this week in a bid to right the wrongs of the defeat to the Packers. This time the Dallas Cowboys have to face the Minnesota Vikings (8-1) who now have the joint best record in the NFC alongside the Eagles.

Last week the Vikings looked doomed after failing to score from the one yard line against the Buffalo Bills, but a mistake from the Center handing off to Josh Allen allowed them to somehow win in Overtime. No one will be bothered about how they win in Minnesota, but it is the latest victory from the jaws of defeat that have many questioning whether the Vikings are really as good as their record would say.

Like the Cowboys, the Minnesota Vikings are also set to play on Thanksgiving Day, but a healthy lead in the NFC North means they won't be overlooking any opponent on their way to trying to earn the Number 1 Seed in the Conference. That provides a huge boost to whichever team can earn it with the sole Bye through the Wild Card Round as well as home advantage through the PlayOffs.

The Vikings will likely turn to Dalvin Cook as their main source of Offensive firepower in this one as they look to expose the weakness on the Dallas Defensive unit. Throughout the 2022 regular season, it has been possible to run the ball right at the Dallas Cowboys and in recent games that weakness has been magnified so it would be worth the Vikings handing the ball to Cook and looking to stay in front of the chains.

This is vitally important to Kirk Cousins and the passing game as it will open up the passing game for the shots downfield that have been key to the success the Vikings have had. Adding TJ Hockenson to the passing game has been a boost, while Justin Jefferson is almost a player that cannot be guarded by any Defensive Back in the League.

However, this all works if the Vikings are in front of the chains.

Any third and long spot is likely going to see Kirk Cousins put under immense pressure from this Dallas pass rush and that has led to many issues for the Quarter Back throughout his career. After allowing Aaron Rodgers to connect with some big plays in the passing game, the Cowboys do have something to prove this week, but Kirk Cousins is someone who can be rattled into mistakes and that will be the key for the visiting team.

On the other side of the ball, the Dallas Cowboys will be looking to achieve the same as the Minnesota Vikings and that is to remain in a situation where they can hand the ball to Ezekiel Elliot and Tony Pollard and look for them to rip off some big games. Like the Cowboys, the Minnesota Defensive Line has struggled to stop the run and now face a strong Dallas Offensive Line which will feel can dominate the line of scrimmage.

Personally I would like to see Dallas give Pollard the majority of the carries with the speed he has and the momentum the younger Running Back has picked up in the absence of Elliot, although the latter's superior pass protection abilities could be useful when the Cowboys want to break out some play-action for Dak Prescott. Both Running Backs should be able to keep Dallas in front of the chains and there are some holes in the Minnesota Secondary that Dak Prescott can exploit as long as he improves his accuracy.

Unfortunately that has been a big problem for Prescott at times and leads to some ugly looking turnovers, but he is blessed with some solid Receiving options. Unlike Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott does receive some pass protection and I do think the Dallas running game could slow down the Minnesota pass rush to make things that much more comfortable for their own Quarter Back.

The Vikings have thrived in turning the ball over through the air and that has helped them win some close games so it is something Dak Prescott has to hope to avoid. His two Interceptions absolutely hurt the Dallas Cowboys last week, but I think Prescott and the Cowboys bounce back here and they can win this one on the road.

Dallas have covered in their last four after a straight up loss, while they are 10-3 against the spread in their last thirteen on the road.

You can't take anything away from any team that has an 8-1 record, but I do think the Vikings have benefited from a few breaks that have gone their way and that means they are a vulnerable team. The Vikings are also 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six against NFC opponents and I think the Dallas Cowboys can win this one on the road.

Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers Pick: The record may have the San Francisco 49ers (5-4) sitting in second place in the NFC West, but the trades made by the team and the roster as it is may be signs that this is the team to beat in the Conference. They are a half game behind the Seattle Seahawks in the Divisional lead, but the 49ers have won two in a row and injuries are also clearing up on both sides of the ball, which is key as we progress towards the end of the regular season.

Finishing with the top Seed in the NFC will be tough considering the records the Philadelphia Eagles and Minnesota Vikings have put together, but winning the Division will mean at least one home PlayOff game and potentially more. That is going to be the ambition of the San Francisco 49ers as they head to Mexico City for what is the final international game being played in the NFL in the 2022 season.

The 49ers will be playing Divisional rivals the Arizona Cardinals (4-6) in this one and the team will be sweating on the availability of Kyler Murray who missed the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10. It was an important win with Colt McCoy behind Center after the Cardinals had lost four of their previous five games, but they cannot afford too many more slip ups between now and the end of the regular season if the Cardinals have genuine hopes of returning to the post-season themselves.

Injuries have also been an issue for the Cardinals in building their losing record, but that is not likely going to keep Head Coach Kliff Kingsbury in a job unless he can turn things around. Some of the decisions made by the Coaching staff will have fans scratching their heads and it certainly will have upper management considering the direction the team are heading in.

There is no doubting how different the Arizona Offensive unit looks with Colt McCoy at Quarter Back and when Kyler Murray lines up in that spot. The athleticism of the former cannot be dismissed, but no one would accuse anyone of being disrespectful if they say Murray offers much more of a dual-threat and may have the San Francisco Defense thinking a little more.

Regardless, this is a very tough 49ers Defensive unit for any team to face and they have been strong along the Defensive Line with an ability to clamp down on the run. Having Kyler Murray may pose a few more problems, but the San Francisco Defensive Line will feel they can contain a Quarter Back who cannot be at full health and force him to beat them with his arm.

In recent games there have been one or two holes in a banged up Secondary, but whoever lines up at Quarter Back is likely going to be facing a fierce pass rush around them with the team expected to be operating out of third and long spots. Stopping DeAndre Hopkins won't be easy, but the 49ers have to feel they can win more often than not on this side of the ball and at least put themselves in a position to win this game.

Unlike the Cardinals, the 49ers have added Christian McCaffrey to their Running Back room and this is a team that will just throw in a few creases to establish the run. They should be able to do that against this Arizona Defensive Line and that only makes life that much more comfortable for Jimmy Garoppolo, even if the Quarter Back still feels like little more than a game-manager.

Running the ball may give Garoppolo more time to try and hit a vulnerable Secondary, while the Quarter Back also picks up big yards by shooting out short passes and letting his Receivers pile up the yards after the catch. That will be the key for the 49ers as they look to keep the chains moving and put the pressure on the Cardinals to keep up on the scoreboard, and I do think this could lead to a relatively strong win for San Francisco.

Arizona won both regular season meetings between these teams last season so there will be a huge amount of motivation in the 49ers locker room to get this right.

The 49ers have covered in their last five games against their Divisional rivals, while San Francisco are also 15-4 against the spread in their last nineteen Monday Night Football games.

On the other side, Arizona are now 1-6 against the spread in their last seven Divisional games, while they are 2-6 against the spread in their last eight against a team with a winning record. This is a big spread, but the feeling is that there will be one or two mistakes by the Arizona Cardinals, which allows San Francisco to have the extra possessions to come away with a victory and a cover.

MY PICKS: Tennessee Titans + 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

New York Giants - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Buffalo Bills - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)

College Football Week 11 Picks 2022 (November 12th)

There is no getting away from the fact that the College Football Picks have been poor this season, but the regular season still has a number of weeks to go before the conclusion and then we get into Championship Week.

That gives me time to turn things around, but I would like to see something positive in Week 11 as the season continues.

LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: After finishing with a 6-7 record in 2021, having eleven returning players on both sides of the ball and a new Head Coach in Brian Kelly, not many felt this would be the season in which the LSU Tigers (7-2) would be challenging in the SEC West. The loaded Division is filled with some of the best teams in the nation, but the Tigers earned a massive upset in Week 10 which has given them a 5-1 record in the Conference and an inside track to the SEC Championship Game.

Two tough road games are left within the Conference after Brian Kelly made the bold move of going for two in Overtime to upset the Alabama Crimson Tide and effectively end Nick Saban's hopes of reaching the College Football PlayOff. The LSU Tigers will likely have to win out, including a likely upset of the Georgia Bulldogs, to have any hope of becoming the first two loss team to reach the PlayOff, but the Head Coach is trying to keep the players focused and make sure they are not thinking too far ahead.

Let's face facts, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Tigers as the road favourite just one week after upsetting Alabama at home as an almost two Touchdown underdog. The Tigers are also facing the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) who are coming in off an upset defeat to the Liberty Flames and who are going to be well short of the nine wins recorded in 2021.

That loss in Week 10 at home will have really hurt and it also means the Razorbacks are still searching for one more win to become Bowl eligible for a third season in a row. Head Coach Sam Pittman will have been really disappointed with the defeat to Liberty, but he is expecting starting Quarter Back KJ Jefferson to be much healthier this week compared to where he was in that defeat.

Brian Kelly has made it clear that his Tigers team should be well aware that they have the inside track to the SEC Championship Game, but a defeat will open the door to Alabama or the Mississippi Rebels to sneak through. He has also been reminding his team of the fact they were beaten by the Razorbacks in 2021 and so would be foolish to overlook the potential of the home team and I do think that motivational factor should cover the letdown spot.

Controlling the line of scrimmage will be the key for both the Tigers and Razorbacks in this game as it will mean establishing the run and giving their Quarter Back an opportunity to attack vulnerable Secondaries. It will also ease the pass rush that both LSU and Arkansas have been able to produce in recent games, but a telling difference could be the ailments that KJ Jefferson is dealing with compared with Jayden Daniels who has looked healthy at Quarter Back for the Tigers.

Both should be able to have strong outings, but if Jefferson is still not at 100%, we saw last week that he can be guilty of making some bad mistakes against the Liberty Flames and this LSU Tigers team may be bouncing a little more.

Jayden Daniels has been careful with the ball in recent games and that has helped the LSU Tigers win three games in a row since their blowout loss to the Tennessee Volunteers. The Tigers have also won road games at Auburn and Florida within the SEC this season and that should at least mean the team is confident in performing in Fayetteville.

Arkansas have to be respected as they have performed well as the home underdog with Sam Pittman at Head Coach, but they were blown out by the Alabama Crimson Tide here.

The poor scheduling spot is a real concern for the LSU Tigers, but this is a team who have been very good playing with revenge and I think they will do enough in this one to win and cover.

Missouri Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: A defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs likely means there is no opportunity to play for the SEC Championship this season, but 2022 could still be a very successful year for the Tennessee Volunteers (8-1). The unbeaten run is over, but the way the College Football scene is breaking down, the Volunteers can finish off very strongly through their remaining three regular season games and hope that is enough to make the PlayOff as a one loss, non-Conference Champion.

Make no mistake, the Volunteers will be upset with the defeat to the Bulldogs, but it was not a blow out and they will feel a second crack at the defending Champions could see a different result. That loss is also one that will hold a lot of weight with the PlayOff Committee if the Georgia Bulldogs go on and finish the regular season unbeaten and then win the SEC Championship Game as they are favoured to do.

The Clemson Tigers losing last week has opened the door for a non-Conference Champion to push into the top four and it says everything you need to know that Tennessee only slipped to Number 5 following the defeat in Week 10. Two of the teams ahead of them have to play one another before all is said and done (Ohio State and Michigan) and so style points may end up being very important for the Volunteers if there are three unbeaten Conference Champions.

I still think that is a long shot with the feeling being the SEC and Big Ten will have the only unbeaten Champions and so Tennessee have plenty of motivation to take into Week 11 as they look to bounce back.

This is a tough test for the Volunteers as they play their final home game of the season against the Missouri Tigers (4-5) who have yet to have a winning season under Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz. However, the Tigers are happy with the Coaching and an extension has been agreed with Drinkwitz as Missouri look for two more wins to make them Bowl eligible.

Missouri have won at least six games in four of their last five seasons, but the narrow loss to the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 10 has left them in a difficult position. The remaining two games following this one are both being played in Columbia so the Tigers will still be confident, while they have challenged every opponent they have faced since the Week 2 blow out at the hands of the Kansas State Wildcats.

The run includes an Overtime loss at Auburn, a 4 point loss to the Georgia Bulldogs and a 7 point loss at the Florida Gators so many may feel the Missouri Tigers are receiving plenty of points in this one. I have to feel the same, although the motivation of the Tennessee Volunteers and the strong record playing following a loss under Josh Heupel does lean me towards a big win for the home team in Knoxville.

After seeing the Offensive unit slowed down by the Bulldogs last week, I am expecting Hendon Hooker to come out and lead the Volunteers to strong drives through much of this game. They are facing a tough Missouri Defensive unit that can be strong at the line of scrimmage, but the Tigers have not really run into too many Offenses like the one the Volunteers will be bringing onto the field.

The Tennessee Offensive Line have something to prove as they have not really helped the team establish the run as well as they would have liked in recent games, while the pass protection has not been as good as it should be either. However, I think Hendon Hooker and the Receiving corps can win enough battles on the outside to keep the chains moving when they take to the air and the Quarter Back has largely been very careful with the ball to avoid the turnovers that proved fatal last week.

While I am expecting Missouri to make some plays with their Defensive unit, stopping the Volunteers after the way the Bulldogs managed it will be much more difficult. I expect the home team to add a few more creases to the game plan to try and keep the Tigers off-balance and that may see them get back to the kind of output we had been used to seeing before Week 10.

Covering the spread won't be easy unless the Volunteers Defensive unit play their part and they showed against the Georgia Bulldogs that Tennessee are pretty good on this side of the ball. The Offensive unit will always generate the headlines, but Tennessee will feel they can clamp down at the line of scrimmage and make the Missouri Tigers pretty one-dimensional Offensively.

Brady Cook has needed more support from his running game and the Quarter Back has thrown more Interceptions than Touchdown passes this season. He has been averaging less than 200 passing yards per game in the last three and I do think this game could get away from Missouri if they have to rely on their passing game to stay with the Volunteers.

The Quarter Back will be throwing into a Tennessee Secondary that have played well in recent games and I do think the Tigers could have issues sustaining drives. The backdoor cover could b open here with the number of points on the spread, but the Volunteers will be looking to match the Michigan Wolverines in putting up style points to convince the Committee that one loss does not define who they are.

Tennessee are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a loss, while the last two wins over the Missouri Tigers have been by 23 points or more. I expect the spread will come down to the last couple of possessions, but I am looking for the Volunteers to bounce back in strong fashion and cover this mark against this Divisional rival.

Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: Ruling out any Nick Saban team to make the College Football PlayOff in mid-November has been a mistake more often than not, but we have yet to see a two loss team reach the final four and it would be a massive surprise if the Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) are the first. Losses to the Tennessee Volunteers and LSU Tigers means they are very unlikely to make the SEC Championship Game and it will be far from easy for the Head Coach to lift the players.

Both losses have been very close and the LSU Tigers going for two in Overtime last week will have stung the confidence of the Alabama players. They need significant help to win the SEC West now, but all the Crimson Tide can do is try and win out and see where the chips lie.

Alabama will head to Oxford to take on the Mississippi Rebels (8-1) in Week 11, another SEC West team needing some help if they are going to reach the Championship Game. The Rebels have one fewer Conference defeats than the Crimson Tide, but that loss was also to the LSU Tigers and means Mississippi need to win out and hope LSU lose one of their remaining two SEC games.

With that in mind, there is everything to play for in this huge SEC game and the Alabama Crimson Tide are a pretty big favourite all things considered. They have had a tendency to bounce back from losses, although the one suffered last week to the Tigers and the manner in which the game ended will be a real test of the mental strength of the Alabama players.

Heavy reliance on the Bryce Young arm at Quarter Back has proven to be a mistake from Alabama and you have to imagine they are going to try and go back to basics this week. I still expect Young to throw plenty, but Alabama's Offensive Line should be tasked with establishing the run more effectively than they were last week and especially against this Rebels Defensive Line which has struggled at the line of scrimmage.

In the last three games, Alabama have been surprisingly poor running the ball with just 3.2 yards per carry put together by the team. However, I think the Offensive Co-Ordinator needs to take some of the blame for moving away from the run and this is an Alabama team who are still averaging almost 6 yards per carry over the course of the season.

Establishing the run will only make things that much more comfortable for Bryce Young and the passing game and the Rebels have struggled to stop teams both on the ground and through the air. Slowing down the pass rush would be a bonus for the Quarter Back and the feeling is that Alabama will have a big game on this side of the ball.

The question in relation to the spread is whether the Mississippi Rebels are playing well enough Offensively to keep up on the scoreboard?

Much will depend on the line of scrimmage when the Mississippi Rebels have the ball with the team hammering teams on the ground in recent games, but now having to face an Alabama Defensive Line which is still pretty stout. Both LSU and Tennessee have been able to have enough success on the ground to find the balance in their Offensive play, but the Crimson Tide may not believe Ole Miss can throw the ball as well as Hendon Hooker and Jayden Daniels and that may see Alabama sell out to stop the run.

Jaxson Dart has not been as efficient as those two Quarter Backs mentioned and he could be facing an Alabama pass rush that puts him under enough duress to extract a mistake or two from his game. I do think Dart and the Rebels Offensive unit will have some success considering the likely letdown spot for the Crimson Tide who are going to come up way short of expectations, but the Rebels were blown out in their loss to the LSU Tigers and I do think they will struggle to keep up on the scoreboard.

Alabama have won six in a row against the Mississippi Rebels and the last five have all come by at least 15 points per game.

The Crimson Tide have also covered in their last five games following a straight up loss, while Mississippi are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven home games and just 1-4 against the spread in their last five following a Bye Week.

Disappointment will be hard to shift for the road team, but I am also expecting an angry Alabama with a point to prove after all the criticism they have been facing over the last week. This could show up on the scoreboard with the Crimson Tide producing a rare big road win against an SEC rival as I look for them to win this one by a couple of Touchdowns when all is said and done in Oxford.

MY PICKS: LSU Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tennessee Volunteers - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Michigan State Spartans - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Penn State Nittany Lions - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Alabama Crimson Tide - 11.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Washington State Cougars - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

North Carolina Tar Heels + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 10: 4-5, - 1.33 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.78% Yield)

Week 9: 3-4, - 1.33 Units (7 Units Staked, - 19% Yield)

Week 8: 3-5, - 2.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.88% Yield)

Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)

Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)

NFL Week 10 Picks 2022 (November 10-14)

There is no getting away from how much Week 5 and Week 6 stung with some horrific results, but the bounce back has been a positive and means the season totals are now very much back in the black thanks to another strong outing last week.

Once again, I will say this is not the time to be getting carried away and there are plenty of tough moments to negotiate between now and the Super Bowl, but it is good to have put an end to those horrible two weeks and move the winning selections over the line.

Keeping that momentum going is the only focus I have as we enter Week 10 of the 2022 season.

I haven't really been able to write out full threads for the Weekly Picks in a while, but in this thread I have my updated top five in the NFL:

1) Philadelphia Eagles (8-0): The last remaining unbeaten team who look to have the balance on both sides of the ball. However, I still feel the Eagles have yet to be fully tested.

2) Buffalo Bills (6-2): Yes, they lost last week, but the bigger concern is Josh Allen's injury status. If his throwing arm is going to be limited going forward, the Buffalo Bills will sink in the AFC.

3) Dallas Cowboys (6-2): I am probably higher on the Cowboys than most, but I really think this could be the year for Dallas to have the PlayOff run that their long suffering fanbase has been hoping for since the mid 1990s.

4) Kansas City Chiefs (6-2): Patrick Mahomes will always make the Chiefs dangerous, although I do wonder if the Defensive unit and the Offensive Line will hold up.

5) Miami Dolphins (6-3): Another surprising team perhaps? As a Dolphins fan I have become used to disappointment, but this teams feels different. Oh, and they have yet to suffer a loss in a game that Tua Tagovailoa has started and finished.

That may be my current top five, but I am expecting the San Francisco 49ers to soon break through as I have them, the Eagles and the Dallas Cowboys as my three favourites in the NFC. Barring injury, I would say those three teams are most likely to make the PlayOffs and it is hard to see which other team in the NFC would really fancy their chances of knocking those off.

The Buffalo Bills have looked the best team in the AFC, but the Josh Allen injury is a massive concern. If he was to worsen and miss the rest of the season, the whole Conference opens up and I think there would be a host of teams who believe they could go all the way to the Super Bowl and potentially win it all too.

Week 10 begins with a NFC South game on Thursday Night Football.

Further Picks from the games to be played on Sunday and Monday will be placed in the thread in the coming days.

Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The AFC East is the only Division in the NFL that has four teams with winning records competing within it, but the NFC South is in a completely situation. All four of the teams in this Division have losing records and all four are still very much competing for a PlayOff spot, but things can begin to take shape when two of those meet in Week 10 of the 2022 season on Thursday Night Football.

This is the second meeting between the Atlanta Falcons (4-5) and the Carolina Panthers (2-7) in three weeks after a very, very close, competitive meeting between the teams in Atlanta in Week 8. That was a game that needed Overtime, although the Carolina Panthers have to be feeling pretty sick with the way they blew the end of the regulation time with the game looking to be firmly in their control.

The efforts in Week 8 clearly took their toll on the struggling Carolina Panthers who were almost expectedly blown out by the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9. It may also have contributed to the Atlanta Falcons late loss to the Los Angeles Chargers, although the feeling is that Atlanta will have invested a lot more into that Week 9 effort than the Panthers seemed to do.

Despite being two games out of the Divisional lead, some may feel the Panthers are already thinking about tanking and trying to finish with a top five Draft Pick after the capitulation at the Cincinnati Bengals. However, I do think this Thursday Night Football scheduled game was a distraction for them and I am expecting a much stronger effort all around from the home team.

They will need to put in a stronger effort in their bid to snap their two game losing run than they produced in the defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals, but my feeling is that the Divisional rivalry will see that happen. PJ Walker is getting the call again at Quarter Back, even though Baker Mayfield gave the Offensive unit a spark on Sunday, but this should be a more comfortable day in the office for the unit on this side of the ball.

Carolina couldn't really lean on D'Onta Foreman last week, but I expect the Running Back to have a much stronger outing on Thursday Night Football and especially against this Falcons Defensive Line. In the game between these NFC South rivals two weeks ago, Foreman was able to pile up over 100 yards on the ground and added three Touchdowns and I do think he will put the Panthers in a position ahead of the chains.

With little pass rush pressure around him and being in third and manageable, PJ Walker should be able to hurt the Panthers Secondary much like he was able to do in Week 8. Avoiding turnovers will be key for the Quarter Back, but he is throwing into an Atlanta Secondary that has given up an average of 337 passing yards per game across their last three games and who allowed Walker to throw for 317 passing yards in Week 8 too.

I do think the Carolina Panthers will be able to move the ball and score their points, but the Atlanta Falcons will feel they are stronger than they were in Week 8 now that Cordarrelle Patterson is back in the line up. The Falcons were able to run the ball very effectively against the Carolina Panthers in their first meeting and I think Patterson will be able to pick up from where Caleb Huntley left off.

This should make the life of Marcus Mariota pretty comfortable at Quarter Back as the Falcons establish the run and open up play-action passes. Being in third and manageable is also much better for any Quarter Back in the NFL and Marcus Mariota should have time to make some big plays with his arm.

He has not been as consistent as he may have liked, but Marcus Mariota played well against the Carolina Panthers two weeks ago and will feel he can put up some solid numbers for his team again. The two Interceptions on the day were almost fatal for the Atlanta chances to win the game, but Marcus Mariota should have time in the pocket when he does step back to throw.

It feels like it is going to be another close game between these NFC South rivals, although the short week does raise a few more uncertainties.

I backed the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 9 against the Carolina Panthers and that was largely down to the feeling that the latter may not be focused in that game. After putting in a huge effort to come up short in Week 8, it was perhaps no surprise that the Panthers were lacking energy last Sunday, but I am also expecting a much more motivated Carolina team to come out in this one.

They can move the ball with a bit more balance than the Atlanta Falcons and the Carolina Panthers can improve the 5-0 run the underdog is on in this series when it comes to the spread.

It is difficult to back the Panthers with a lot of confidence considering some of the truly terrible trends they have produced in recent years, but the Atlanta Falcons are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Thursday games. I would have loved to have gotten the hook over the Field Goal number, but the Carolina Panthers can do enough on home field to make even this number of points count.

Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: First things first, this is the last international game the NFL are sending to Europe this season as they play in Munich, Germany to expand onto the continent. In previous years, London has been the sole host of the European games, but the NFL is absolutely massive in the Netherlands and Germany and the quick sell-out shows the appetite for the regular season to be played in those venues.

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-5) and the Seattle Seahawks (6-3) head to Munich as the current NFC South and NFC West Divisional leaders, although there have been a lot more questions about the former this season. The Buccaneers have been one of the big disappointments so far, but the win over the Los Angeles Rams in Week 9 may be the spark the whole team has needed.

On the other side, the Seattle Seahawks are arguably the biggest surprise in the NFL this season having traded away Russell Wilson in the off-season and decided to go with veteran Geno Smith at Quarter Back. The Geno Smith career has not reached the heights he would have hoped, but he has looked more than a serviceable starter in 2022 and has been a key leader for the young Seahawks who have shown an improvement in each passing week.

They will lean on Smith at Quarter Back, but the main game plan for the Seahawks has to be establishing Kenneth Walker III and the run. The Seahawks Offensive Line have been very happy when the call is made to grade the road and Walker III has been one of the top Running Backs in the NFL with a burst to break through the Line and hit the Secondary very hard.

In recent games the Tampa Bay Defensive Line have struggled to stop the run and I do think Seattle will be in a position to take advantage.

That makes it much easier for Geno Smith if the Seahawks are in third and manageable for much of the afternoon. It should mean having a bit more time to make his throws with some quality Receivers like DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett making his plays for him, and I think the Seahawks will be able to move the chains even in this tough scheduling spot.

Tom Brady and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers will be looking forward to the Bye Week that follows this one and they will have been pleased to have seen the Atlanta Falcons already beaten in Week 10. They remain banged up in a number of areas on both sides of the ball, and Brady has yet to really get on the same page as the Offensive Line which is much changed from the one that helped the Buccaneers win the Super Bowl a couple of years ago.

Offensive Line troubles have also affected Leonard Fournette and the Running Backs being used- the Buccaneers are only averaging 2.8 yards per carry in their last three games and this Seattle Defensive Line has been clamping down on the run in recent games as the entire Defensive unit continues to grow into the season.

An inability to run the ball has meant Tom Brady has been relying on his arm to keep the chains moving and he does have some big name Receivers that can make plays for him. The problem for one of the best of all time is that the Line has not protected him as well as he would like to allow time for his Receivers to get down the field and I would expect Tom Brady to be under pressure from what has been a powerful Seattle pass rush.

The pressure up front has really helped the young Seahawks Secondary and I do think they will feel they can do enough on this side of the ball to earn the upset.

It is far from an ideal start time for the West Coast based Seattle Seahawks, but they have the momentum and I do think they can dominate at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball. Tampa Bay will be over-rated by the layers knowing people will want to back Tom Brady, but the Buccaneers are 0-6-1 against the spread in their last seven games and I do think the Seahawks have every chance of winning this one outright.

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears Pick: The Minnesota Vikings have a healthy lead in the NFC North, but the Chicago Bears (3-6) and the Detroit Lions (2-7) may yet feel there is a potential Wild Card spot available with a strong end to the season. On the other hand, the trades made by both teams before the deadline are less encouraging for the fans when it comes to the 2022 prospects and instead this could be a season in which these teams continue to grow and look for much better next time around.

The Bears in particularly will be keen to develop Justin Fields at Quarter Back and the recent performances of the young player has to be exciting. Bringing in Chase Claypool gives the Quarter Back another Receiving option, while the Bears look to have decided to make full use of Justin Fields' attributes and got him moving the ball with his legs too.

Running the ball has been key for the Chicago Bears in recent games and I do think they will be able to hit the Detroit Defensive Line on the ground. A RPO line up will be even more difficult to stop after seeing Fields crush the Miami Dolphins on the ground in Week 9 and I do think the Bears Offensive Line will be strong enough at the line of scrimmage to keep the team in front of the chains.

From there, Justin Fields can throw the ball with some success against this Detroit Secondary and there has been a feeling that the Chicago Bears are finally feeling like they can have their Quarter Back throw more than they did earlier in the season. The Lions made some big plays in the passing game when Aaron Rodgers was trying to throw against them last week, but they bent plenty before the turnovers created in the End Zone and I do think the Chicago Bears will be balanced on the Offensive side of the ball to keep the Lions scrambling.

After trading away a couple of the leaders on the Defensive side of the ball, it is going to be a tough end of the season for the Chicago Bears and I do think the Lions will have plenty of successes in this one too. Jared Goff did not have to do a lot in the winning effort against the Green Bay Packers in Week 9, but the Quarter Back should be able to have a solid day in this Divisional battle.

He will be helped by the running game and the Detroit Lions should be able to keep themselves in front of the chains and that should give Goff the chance to have a stronger day throwing the ball. A limited Chicago pass rush is not expected to pressure the Quarter Back and so Jared Goff should be able to have a big game like his opposite number.

This should be a game featuring plenty of Offensive output, but I do lean to the home team.

The Detroit Lions put in a big effort to beat the Green Bay Packers and you do have to wonder if they can dig that deep again at Soldier Field where they have been beaten in three of their last four visits.

Over the last year and a half, the Bears have been a pretty good home favourite to back, while the Detroit Lions are 1-4 against the spread in their last five games. The Bears are also 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five at home and I think they can do enough at home to earn the victory with Justin Fields being let loose.

Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins Pick: A big win over a Divisional rival before going into the Bye Week will have given the Cleveland Browns (3-5) a boost as they continue to try and manage the situation before Deshaun Watson is able to return at Quarter Back. Three more games have to be negotiated before Watson can return, but it is a tough stretch for Cleveland out of the Bye.

First up is a trip to Florida to take on the streaking Miami Dolphins (6-3) who will be going into the Bye Week after this game. An injury to Josh Allen has potentially opened the AFC East up for a new Champion and the Miami Dolphins have yet to lose a game that has been started and finished by Tua Tagovailoa.

Back to back win road games at the Detroit Lions and Chicago Bears shows a motivated and concentrated Miami Dolphins team, but this may be a tougher challenge than the two Defensive units that have been faced in those wins. In recent games, the Cleveland Browns have remained competitive thanks to the level being produced by the Defense and they will feel they can give their Offense a chance to win this one in an upset on the road.

The Cleveland Defensive Line have been strong up front and they won't be too concerned with the Miami running game, even with the addition of Jeff Wilson Jr to the Running Back room. For all of the positives we have seen from the Dolphins this season, they have not yet found the right way to establish the run and have been very reliant on what looks like one of the stronger passing Offenses in the NFL.

This time Tua Tagovailoa will be tested by a Cleveland Secondary which has held their last three opponents to under 200 passing yards per game, although the Quarter Backs faced have not had the kind of Receiving threat that Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle will pose down the field. In saying that, the Browns have been able to get their pass rush going thanks to the ability to clamp down on the run and the Miami Offensive Line will not find it easy to give their Quarter Back the time to allow the Receivers to make their routes down the field.

Stopping Miami completely will be a test for any Defensive team in the NFL, but the Cleveland Browns have to believe they can at least restrict their hosts and give Jacoby Brissett and the Offensive unit a chance.

Jacoby Brissett will be well used to playing in this Stadium having been a member of the Miami Dolphins in 2021 and he has just been holding the keys for Deshaun Watson while the suspension is completed.

The reality is that the Cleveland Offensive Line will be tasked with opening up the running lanes for Kareem Hunt and Nick Chubb and they are certainly capable of doing that against this Dolphins Defensive Line. In recent games, the Dolphins have not really been able to stop teams picking up big yards on the ground, but the Offensive scoring power has forced a change in the game plan.

In this one the Cleveland Browns are likely going to stick with pounding the rock and trying to make things easier for Jacoby Brissett at Quarter Back. The Offensive Line have not been as strong in pass protection as they have in run blocking, but being in front of the chains should make things pretty comfortable for Brissett as it should ease the ability of Bradley Chubb to wreck plans up front.

Jacoby Brissett will also be throwing into a Secondary that will give up some big plays and I do think the Cleveland Browns can at least stay with the Miami Dolphins.

Cleveland have not been the best out of a Bye Week under Head Coach Kevin Stefanski who is in his third season here, while they have not been able to back up wins with a strong return at the window.

The Dolphins had been a team that were not only winning games, but covering regularly, but they are now just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games and I do think the Defensive issues means they will allow a potential backdoor cover here.

Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans Pick: You cannot ignore the kind of effort that the Tennessee Titans (5-3) put into their Week 9 loss at the Kansas City Chiefs and coming so close to a win, only to lose, is tough on the players. Derrick Henry continues to carry the AFC South leaders on his back, but the Titans may be bolstered by a returning Ryan Tannehill at Quarter Back.

Trading away AJ Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles has dented the passing game anyway, but Malik Willis has really not been asked to throw too many times in the two starts he has made for the team in place of Ryan Tannehill. It has made the Titans even more one-dimensional, not that the Houston Texans or the Kansas City Chiefs have had a lot of success slowing down Derrick Henry even knowing what is coming.

This week it will be tasked to the Denver Broncos (3-5) who are coming out of their Bye Week having last played in London in Week 8 and finding a win against the Jacksonville Jaguars. The victory may have been enough to keep Nathaniel Hackett in his role as Head Coach of the Broncos, but this is a team who have underachieved to the point that they were willing to trade away Bradley Chubb.

A decision to bring in Russell Wilson to spark the Offensive unit and back up the strong Defensive play we have seen in Denver has not paid off as the Broncos would have hoped. However, the Broncos are still in a position where a strong end to the season could see the team push their way into the PlayOff positions in the Conference.

One of the main problems on this side of the ball has been the inability to run the ball consistently, especially now Wilson is not the scrambling Quarter Back he once was in his time with the Seattle Seahawks. Trying to establish the run against the Tennessee Defensive Line is a huge challenge at the best of times, and I am not sure Denver are going to have much success in this one, which does shift the pressure onto the passing game.

Russell Wilson has been feeling the pass rush pressure all around him with the team left in third and long more often than not, and that is going to be a problem against the Titans. The home team have been disruptive when it comes to getting to the Quarter Back and Russell Wilson could find himself throwing under pressure, which can lead to big mistakes down the field.

Tennessee have seen the Defensive unit step up and make their plays to keep the team competitive even without much of a semblance of a passing Offense and that is likely to be the case here.

However, this time it looks like a returning Ryan Tannehill could be in the starting line up and that will force Denver to at least respect the fact that the veteran can throw the ball down the field and the Titans will allow him to do that. It will make stopping Derrick Henry that much more challenging and that is a concern for the Broncos Defensive Line which has left some big holes to be exploited up front.

The big Running Back will likely have another strong outing with plenty of touches and King Henry can put the Titans in a strong position to win and cover.

A Thursday Night Football slot in Week 11 can be a distraction for teams, but the Titans won't be too concerned about the Green Bay Packers after the way the season has gone for them. A Conference game is more important and I think the Titans game plan does not change much with their returning Quarter Back, but it is a plan that could be difficult for Denver to stop.

Last weekend was a difficult loss for Tennessee to take, but Head Coach Mike Vrabel is very strong at getting his team refocused and they are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven following a loss. Tennessee are also 5-2 against the spread in their last seven at home, while the Denver Broncos are just 2-5 against the spread in their last seven on the road.

I expect a heavy does of Derrick Henry on one side and a fierce pass rush on the other to help the Titans move onto six wins of the season and remain in firm control of the AFC South Division race.

MY PICKS: Carolina Panthers + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Seattle Seahawks + 2.5 Points @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Chicago Bears - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Dallas Cowboys - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

San Francisco 49ers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 9: 4-1-2, + 5.36 Units (14 Units Staked, + 38.29% Yield)

Week 8: 5-2, + 5.16 Units (14 Units Staked, + 36.86% Yield)

Week 7: 5-3, + 3.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)

Week 6: 2-6, - 8.34 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.13% Yield)

Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

NFL Week 9 Picks 2022 (November 3-7)

Another Week in the 2022 NFL season and things have become clear about ambitions of teams with the trade deadline passed.

Some have clearly rolled the dice and some have perhaps begun to think about 2023 already, but we have just about reached the halfway mark of the year and with so much still to play for.

Minnesota Vikings @ Washington Commanders Pick: One of the more surprising records in the NFL as we approach the halfway stage of the season has to be one the held by the Minnesota Vikings (6-1) who have a healthy lead in the NFC North. Missing the PlayOffs from this position would be a massive blow, but the Vikings are a team that has a record which is perhaps not completely indicative of how they have actually played.

They are a road favourite this week at the Washington Commanders (4-4) who have won four in a row to move back to 0.500, although they are in a very strong NFC East where the team immediately above them have won six games.

It may have been an enforced decision, but having Taylor Heinecke back at Quarter Back has sparked the Commanders and given them a boost on this side of the ball after Carson Wentz had struggled in his first few games for Washington. A big game is on deck for the Commanders as they are set to play the Philadelphia Eagles on Monday Night Football in Week 10, but they cannot afford to overlook any opponent having started the season with four losses in five games.

Taylor Heinecke may not be a Quarter Back on which a franchise will be built, but he is a strong game manager and his team-mates clearly believe in him. This is a game that should give him an opportunity to showcase more of his ability to throw down the field against this Vikings Secondary, who have given up plenty of yards in recent games, and Heinecke has some solid Receiving options that will give the Commanders confidence.

The Commanders may need their Quarter Back and the passing game to be working at full capacity because they are not likely to have a lot of joy establishing the run. In recent games, the Vikings Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run up front, while playing with a lead has forced teams to try and throw their way back into games.

Either way, it will be important for the Vikings to try and put Washington in obvious passing situations as they will be able to unleash their pass rush to try and get to Taylor Heinecke. The Commanders Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection as well as run blocking and it could be the key to helping Minnesota set their Offensive unit up in short field situations.

And that could spell trouble for Washington considering how well Kirk Cousins and the Vikings Offensive unit have been playing for much of the season. Playing against his former team will only give Kirk Cousins more of a motivation, although he may be able to hand the ball off to Dalvin Cook and allow the Running Back to pick up significant yards on the ground.

Establishing the run opens up the playbook for Kirk Cousins, who is blessed with some real quality Receiving options and been given an early Christmas present with the addition of TJ Hockenson. Add the Tight End to Adam Thielen and Justin Jefferson and the Vikings have an Offensive unit that will feel they can score plenty of points whoever they play, especially with Dalvin Cook giving them a genuine running threat.

Rain is expected and that could be a decisive factor, but I do think the Vikings have the edge running the ball and it should give them an opportunity to win and cover on the road.

The Vikings are not easy to trust as a road favourite, and this feels like a square selection, but I do think the Washington Commanders have been dealing with a fortunate schedule to put up their three wins in succession. This is a much tougher game and the balance of the Vikings may be too much for a Washington team that may not match up that well with Minnesota and who have a 1-4 record against the spread in their last five games facing a team with a winning record.

Turnovers could be crucial on the day with the wet conditions expected, but I will look for Kirk Cousins to remind the home faithful of what they could have had at Quarter Back.

Dalvin Cook can pile up the yards on the ground to keep Minnesota comfortable and the Vikings Defensive Line may make one or two big plays to ensure the cover.

Miami Dolphins @ Chicago Bears Pick: The weather in the Windy City can be an equaliser at this time of the year, but conditions look relatively comfortable in Week 9 of the 2022 season. That may not be good news for the Chicago Bears (3-5) as they prepare to face the exciting Miami Dolphins (5-3) after contrasting trade deadline approaches from the two teams.

There is no doubt that the Miami Dolphins feel there is a window to have some major successes with the team they have put together.

Prior to the trade deadline, the Dolphins had looked strong in every game that Tua Tagovailoa had started and finished at Quarter Back and now they have added Jeff Wilson at Running Back to give the team more options. A bigger move was trading for Bradley Chubb from the Denver Broncos to give the Dolphins a strong presence when it comes to rushing the passer and the Miami Dolphins have a chance to prove themselves over the remainder of this season.

While the Dolphins are adding players, the Chicago Bears have traded away Robert Quinn and Roquan Smith, which is a major blow to what had been a solid Defensive unit. In something of a surprise, the Bears did bring in Chase Claypool to give Justin Fields another Receiving weapon, but the Bears certainly don't look as strong as they could have done if they had kept those Defensive pieces in the building.

Justin Fields may be given a bit more of a chance to showcase his arm talent as he looks to convince the management team and the fans that he can be the franchise Quarter Back for the Bears. Some have suggested that Fields is not trusted to throw the ball, but the bigger problem has been the Offensive Line who have struggled to give him any time and now have to deal with the addition of Bradley Chubb for the road team.

At least Fields can offer some threat with his legs and they should be able to have some success pounding the ball on the ground as long as this game is close. Both David Montgomery and Khalil Herbert will benefit from being given the ball, although the Dolphins Defensive Line are capable of making some big plays in the run game to try and force the Bears into throwing the ball.

I do think the Bears will be able to get in front of the chains with their power running, but the Miami Dolphins are also going to be confident thanks to an improving Raheem Mostert and the addition of Jeff Wilson in the backfield. Both of those players are very familiar with Mike McDaniel's philosophy so I don't think it will take Wilson too long to get into the groove for the Dolphins, while both benefit from playing a Chicago Defensive Line which will be weaker at stopping the run without Smith at Linebacker.

In recent games it has been possible to establish the run against the Bears and this should make things more comfortable for Tua Tagovailoa who is making a mockery of some of the criticism he has faced since turning professional.

The Bears Secondary has to be respected, but some of the numbers may have been boosted by the fact that teams feel they don't need to throw on them. The likes of Jayden Waddle, Mike Gesicki and Tyreek Hill will certainly test out the Defensive Backs and Safeties more than most and I do think Tua Tagovailoa will have time to make his plays down the field.

Playing on the road in the NFL is never easy and covering as a favourite on the road is tough.

Miami did do that last week at Detroit and back to back road games is another difficult spot, but the Chicago Bears are just 2-6-1 against the spread in their last nine home games.

The Bears are also 1-5 against the spread in their last six games against a team with a winning record, and I do think the Miami Dolphins will have too much scoring for the Bears to keep up on the scoreboard here.

Carolina Panthers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The AFC North is a competitive Division, but the Cincinnati Bengals (4-4) have to be frustrated that they still can't seem to get the better of the Cleveland Browns. They were beaten pretty convincingly on Monday Night Football and that has dropped the Bengals back down to 0.500 for the season, while the team are going to be without Ja'Marr Chase for a few more games.

His absence clearly would have hurt Joe Burrow, but the bigger problems are the Offensive Line and injuries suffered in the Secondary. In the Week 8 loss at Cleveland, Joe Burrow was seemingly under pressure every time he dropped back to throw and his own Receivers did not have the time to break free down the field.

Things should be cooler in the pocket for the Quarter Back when the Carolina Panthers (2-6) roll into town off the back of a pretty stunning defeat to the Atlanta Falcons. A Hail Mary pass seemed to have given the Panthers the win in Week 8, which would have gotten them firmly back in the mix in the weak NFC South, but DJ Moore was flagged after grabbing the Touchdown and the Extra Point was missed.

Another missed kick in Overtime proved costly for the Panthers who were beaten and this is a team that may already be thinking ahead to the 2023 season. Christian McCaffrey is now playing in San Francisco, while Baker Mayfield looks to have been benched behind PJ Walker.

An interim Head Coach is in charge, while Robby Anderson is another who has been traded away from the Panthers as they perhaps turn their thoughts to a high Draft place. This game also feels in a remarkably tough scheduling spot as the Panthers are due to play the Atlanta Falcons again on Thursday Night Football in Week 10 with revenge firmly on the mind considering how the game ended last week.

You do have to question the kind of motivation that the Panthers will have for a non-Conference game on the road, although they have found something in D'Onta Foreman at Running Back since he has taken over for the traded McCaffrey. He may not be the same pass catching kind of threat, but Foreman will put his head down and power between the Tackles and has given the Panthers a genuine running game.

I think he will have a strong game as long as this game is close and he is facing a Cincinnati Defensive Line which struggled to put the clamps down on Nick Chubb last week.

Passing from a position ahead of the chains is going to make things easier for PJ Walker at Quarter Back and he should have success against the banged up Cincinnati Secondary. However, the passing game is still a work in progress and Walker is still learning how to get the ball to his Receivers as efficiently as possible, something that could be much tougher to do if the Panthers are down a couple of scores.

Overall you have to believe the Panthers will have Offensive successes, but the same can be said for the Cincinnati Bengals. I mentioned the Offensive Line issues against the Cleveland Browns, but the Panthers are not generating as much pressure up front and so Joe Burrow and the passing game should be in much better sync all around than they were in the defeat to their Divisional rivals.

The Quarter Back should be helped by Joe Mixon, who should have a few more spaces to try and exploit up front, and I do think the Carolina Secondary will have a tough test stopping this Cincinnati passing game.

Losing Ja'Marr Chase is a blow, but the likes of Tee Higgins and Tyler Boyd can make up for the absence with a few more days working as top options for Joe Burrow.

I don't think the Panthers will roll over for the Cincinnati Bengals, but I do think the game coming up on Thursday Night Football will be a distraction for a 2-6 team. It is that much more of a distraction when you think of the way the Panthers were beaten by the Atlanta Falcons in Week 8 and this has to be factor on Sunday.

This is a lot of points to cover, but the Carolina Panthers are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven road games to add to the potential for being unfocused.

Cincinnati have a solid Quarter Back looking to bounce back from a loss and Joe Burrow is 12-4 against the spread following a defeat.

Playing after a blow out on Monday Night Football can be tough, but the Cincinnati Bengals should be able to exert their authority to move back above 0.500 ahead of their Bye Week.

Indianapolis Colts @ New England Patriots Pick: Despite the record, the Indianapolis Colts (3-4-1) are still in a position where you would think the PlayOffs has to be a goal they feel that can be achieved at the end of the 2022 regular season. However, Frank Reich is under some pressure in his fifth year with the Colts having not overseen one PlayOff win since 2018 after being well backed by the team.

The early retirement of Andrew Luck was clearly a blow, but Frank Reich has been given Carson Wentz and then Matt Ryan at Quarter Back, but both veterans have underperformed. Perhaps it is the last throw of the dice for the Head Coach, but benching Ryan in favour of youngster Sam Ehlinger has been a surprising move.

It isn't the only one with the Offensive Co-Ordinator out and a decision to trade away a Running Back who can have an impact for the Colts surprising many.

This is a big game for the Colts as they travel to face the New England Patriots (4-4) who won last week to ensure that every team in the AFC East has won at least four games. Unfortunately for the Patriots, they are currently propping up the Division, but a win in Week 9 ahead of their Bye Week will certainly have the players believing the PlayOffs are more than a possibility.

Mac Jones will continue to get the call at Quarter Back, although he is under pressure to make sure he keeps delivering. His backup, Bailey Zappe, showed how good he can be for the Patriots when relieving an injured Jones earlier in the season and some Patriots fans would prefer to see him behind Center, so Mac Jones has to make sure he manages the game without making the critical mistakes that saw New England embarrassed by the Chicago Bears on Monday Night Football a couple of weeks ago.

This is not an easy match up for Jones at Quarter Back, who has been playing behind an Offensive Line that is a little banged up and struggling in pass protection. This Indianapolis Secondary have shown they can make big plays for the team and so the Patriots have to find a way to establish the run and see if they can control the clock.

Rhamondre Stevenson has been able to break some big runs for the Patriots and this may be a good game for him, especially as Damien Harris is expected to miss out. It has felt like Stevenson is the superior Running Back anyway and he is facing an Indianapolis Defensive Line which has had issues trying to contain the run in recent games.

There are still challenges for the Patriots on the Offensive side of the ball, but Bill Belichick can make things easier for them by confusing the young Quarter Back playing for the Colts.

Setting his Offense up in strong field position thanks to strong efforts from his Defensive unit will be the plan for the Patriots and I do think Belichick has a strong history of making things very difficult for inexperienced Quarter Backs like Sam Ehlinger. Usually you would expect the Colts to run the ball a lot in order to give Ehlinger the best possible chance of moving the chains, but they are likely without Jonathan Taylor and you have to imagine the Patriots are going to force the Colts to have to take to the air to move the chains.

I would be confident in someone like Matt Ryan being able to make the plays to hurt the Patriots in the Secondary, even after looking way short of the standards he had previously set while with the Atlanta Falcons, but it is harder to expect Sam Ehlinger to be able to do that. He is likely going to be faced up by a solid New England pass rush and you have to expect Bill Belichick to set his team up to take away the first passing option and force Ehlinger to have to go through his progressions.

That will be a real challenge for Sam Ehlinger, who also has to be aware of the ball-hawking nature of the New England Secondary.

I expect an Interception or two to be the difference for the home team and it is hard to ignore how effective Bill Belichick has been at confusing young Quarter Backs. That could help the New England Patriots pull clear in the second half in this one and help them record a vital win before going into the Bye Week and I do think New England can cover.

It is difficult to ignore the blow out loss suffered by the Patriots in their last home game, but they are facing a Colts team that is 1-4 against the spread in their last five on the road. Some may think the Patriots may not be focused after a Divisional win in Week 8, but they have a solid 9-2 record against the spread in their last eleven following a game against the New York Jets and I think the home team will back up that victory with another to stay in touch in what looks a loaded AFC East.

Tennessee Titans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: There is a rivalry between these two AFC rivals, but it is a surprise to see the Tennessee Titans (5-2) dominating the series as much as they have in recent years. They have won five in a row overall to take over the lead in the AFC South, but the Tennessee Titans are a massive underdog at the Kansas City Chiefs (5-2) who top the AFC West.

Some of that is down to the fact that Ryan Tannehill is still a doubt for the Titans at Quarter Back and last week they showed they don't really have a lot of trust in Malik Willis just yet. The rookie may be the future of the Titans passing game, but Head Coach Mike Vrabel wants to win now and the best chance is with Ryan Tannehill who will be a game-time decision.

Ultimately it doesn't matter who the Titans start at Quarter Back with the Offensive unit leaning on Derrick Henry.

The Running Back crushed the Houston Texans in Week 8 and he has calmed any suggestions that he is dealing with an injury that could see him ruled out of this big game. His numbers were huge in the win over the Texans, but Derrick Henry made it clear that the Offensive Line deserves a lot of the credit for opening the holes they have and I do think they can impose themselves on this Kansas City Defensive Line.

Of course if the Chiefs feel there is no risk in Willis beating them in the air, they can bring in more men to shut down Derrick Henry and that is where a returning Ryan Tannehill would be a big upgrade for the road team. The veteran Quarter Back is not asked to do much more than manage the game having seen AJ Brown traded away to the Philadelphia Eagles in the off-season, but his presence may keep the running lanes open for Henry as the Titans look to control the clock, limit possessions and keep the hot Kansas City Offensive unit cooling down on the sidelines.

Kansas City are coming out of a Bye Week and Andy Reid has long been considered one of the best Head Coaches when it comes to getting his players to perform after a rest. They comfortable beat the Denver Broncos out of a Bye Week last year, but Reid is now just 2-2 against the spread in the last four seasons out of the rest.

Any team that has Patrick Mahomes is going to be dangerous, but the Tennessee Titans may feel they can at least find a way to slow down this Offensive unit. After blowing out the San Francisco 49ers on the road, Kansas City will be playing with confidence, but they may not be able to establish the run against the Titans Defensive Line and so the focus will be on Mahomes at Quarter Back and his ability to find targets down the field.

Keeping Patrick Mahomes in third and somewhat long will at least give the Titans a chance to get their pass rush ramped up and get after the Quarter Back. That is absolutely essential if the Titans are going to earn the upset, but stopping the Chiefs completely is going to be almost impossible.

The Receiving corps has been bolstered by a trade for Kadarius Toney and the Chiefs have shown how efficient they can be when crushing the 49ers a couple of weeks ago. It certainly makes it very difficult to oppose them with any real confidence, but I do think the Titans can do enough at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to keep this one within a very big number.

As good as the Kansas City Chiefs are, they have failed to cover in their last four at home and their last five against the AFC overall.

At the same time, the Titans are 12-4 against the spread in their last sixteen games against a team with a winning record at home and I think Derrick Henry can pound the rock well enough to help them cover here.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Miami Dolphins - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New England Patriots - 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Detroit Lions + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Atlanta Falcons + 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tennessee Titans + 12.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Week 8: 5-2, + 5.16 Units (14 Units Staked, + 36.86% Yield)

Week 7: 5-3, + 3.04 Units (16 Units Staked, + 19% Yield)

Week 6: 2-6, - 8.34 Units (16 Units Staked, - 52.13% Yield)

Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)