Australian Open Tennis Day 13 Picks- Women's Final 2021 (February 20th)

The Women's Final takes centre stage as the Australian Open draws to a close over the next two days.

I will have a fuller thread for the Men's Final ahead of the Sunday completion of the tournament.

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Jennifer Brady: She may be the younger player, but Naomi Osaka will be the one with the experience edge when the Women's Final is played at the Australian Open. This is not only the fourth Grand Slam Final that Naomi Osaka has played, but she has won the previous three (two at the US Open and once here in Melbourne), while her opponent Jennifer Brady is in her maiden Grand Slam Final and has only just played in her second Slam Semi Final.

Both of these players are big hitters and the serve is going to be a key weapon for both on the day, but it does feel like Naomi Osaka has peaked in time for the Final while we have seen the best tennis from Jennifer Brady earlier in the tournament. The American was a little fortunate to come through her Semi Final against Karolina Muchova who was unable to complete the fightback despite being the stronger player in the match and Jennifer Brady will know she needs to be a lot better if she is going to beat someone as good as Naomi Osaka.

In the last two matches Brady has had to spend three and a half hours on the court compared with Osaka rattling through her two matches in over an hour less time. That is a potential factor considering the majority of those matches would have played in hot conditions and only furthers the edge towards the Japanese former World Number 1 who is likely going to cement her place at the top of the WTA Tour with a victory, even if the World Rankings don't reflect her status.

It also has to be noted that this is considerably the toughest challenge that Jennifer Brady has had to face at the Australian Open and the first player Ranked inside the top 20 she would have played. None of her previous six matches have come against anyone Ranked higher than Number 27 and the struggles in the last Round is a particular concern.

Jennifer Brady was not able to get her teeth into the Karolina Muchova serve, but took the chances when they came up. Ultimately if she has struggled in her return game in that match, this one is going to be a real problem for her although I do think the evening conditions will just make things a touch easier for the underdog.

Those conditions should slow up the ball enough for Jennifer Brady to see the ball a little better on the return, but there is a counter downside to that and that is her biggest weapon, the serve, may not be as effective as she would like. In the last couple of matches here, opponents have been able to create break point chances against the Jennifer Brady serve and Naomi Osaka just took the game to Serena Williams and has continued to have plenty of returning success.

The American has just struggled with her first serve percentage over the last week and I think that will only add pressure on her. You know Naomi Osaka will look to attack the second serve and I do think she has a big enough advantage in this match to secure another Grand Slam title and likely with a relatively comfortable win produced.

Naomi Osaka has room for improvement in her first serve percentage, but she has looked after her second serve a lot better than Jennifer Brady.

These two players met at the US Open in the Semi Final and it was Naomi Osaka who came through a tight three setter. However, the higher Ranked player had a considerable advantage on the return of serve that day in what was a relatively tight match, and I think that is likely to be the case again in the Final on Saturday.

If Brady serves at her best she can keep this close, but she may be tiring and will have to be a lot better than she has been in the last two matches here. There is some real pressure on Naomi Osaka as a big favourite, but she is in the better form and looks to be playing with the kind of belief that may see her dominate this Final.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (February 19-23)

The European competitions have resumed during the week and I am not entirely convinced with UEFA's decision to have teams playing 'home' Legs on neutral fields. Personally I prefer the two Leg approach to the Knock Out Rounds through to the Final rather than the neutral site one Leg tournament we have to deal with last summer, but the Covid-19 pandemic continues to play havoc with the schedule.

The same is likely to happen in the March World Cup Qualifiers which are due to commence, while UEFA also have a big decision to make about the upcoming Euro 2020 tournament. I have no doubt the tournament will be played and completed as they want, but whether all twelve Cities will host and whether fans are going to be allowed in, even in limited numbers, is yet to be clarified.

I do commend any organisation which is trying to keep competitions going at this time through the various sports and so many have proved they can run their events effectively even when people have criticised those events taking place. Unlike some, I absolutely believe Euro 2020 can be played and manage the bubbles efficiently, but I would perhaps limit some of the travelling that is currently scheduled to take place.

Instead of twelve Cities you could use four, but UEFA will likely be breaching contracts and that is a big factor to take into consideration.

While those decisions are coming up, the club football continues and this is still a very busy time of the season with games being played every few days. I will get into the Fantasy Football outlook for GameWeek 25 after running through my thoughts of the Premier League fixtures to be played this weekend and the make up fixture to come during the week.

Wolves v Leeds United Pick: Friday Night Football comes from Molineux this week to open the Premier League latest round of fixtures and both Wolves and Leeds United will feel they can still secure a top half finish this season. European Football is perhaps beyond both considering the lack of consistency that has been shown and this is a difficult fixture to predict.

There have been times where both have looked really good, but they are also never that far away from a poorer showing and the first goal is likely going to be important.

Wolves came from behind to win at Southampton last weekend and did the same when hosting Arsenal, while they did create some decent openings against Leicester City in a goalless draw. The absence of Raul Jimenez has really prevented Wolves turning a few close games into wins and they still lack the consistent threat in the final third without their talismanic centre forward.

However, Nuno Espirito Santo will be pleased by some of the build up play his Wolves team have put together and the manager has to be confident they can create chances against this Leeds United team. Even through some of their better results, Leeds United have a style which leaves them wide open and Wolves have some quality wide players who can use pace and skill to expose those areas.

In saying that, the Leeds United style is also one that will create chances and they showed that off in their 1-3 win at Leicester City recently. They have scored at least twice in 3 away games in a row in the Premier League, but Leeds United have not kept a clean sheet in any of those and have conceded in 8 of their last 10 away games in all competitions.

Leeds United lost 0-1 to Wolves at Elland Road, but they created the better chances on the day. They are playing with some confidence even as results remain inconsistent and I think this is a fixture that is likely to feature at least three goals, especially as Wolves have found some attacking threat in recent games.

Both teams scoring wouldn't be a surprise when involving Leeds United, while neither team is likely to settle for a point as they bid to move up the Premier League standings. If the game gets bogged down it could end up being a tight one, but Leeds United don't seem to allow that to happen too often and I would expect at least three goals to be shared out this evening.

Southampton v Chelsea Pick: The Champions League has already resumed, but Chelsea will be playing their Last 16 First Leg against Spanish leaders Atletico Madrid in the coming days. That is a competition that will always be a distraction to players and managers, but Thomas Tuchel can't afford to take his eye off the ball in the Premier League as Chelsea look for a top four finish and a return to the Champions League next season too.

In reality everything you hear about Tuchel suggests he will do anything but focus on the next game on deck and he will be looking to prepare his Chelsea team to the best of ability. Changes are likely to be made as he keeps the squad fresh, but his team look to be responding in the manner the manager will appreciate and the 5 game winning run will give Chelsea real confidence.

I do think Tuchel has been fortunate with the way the fixture list panned out in his first few weeks in charge of Chelsea and he may also be going up against Southampton at the right time.

Injuries have hurt the hosts and confidence has been dented which has seen Southampton lose their last 6 Premier League games including the last 3 in a row at St Mary's. However 2 of those defeats have come in games Southampton have taken the lead and the defensive issues are a problem for Ralph Hasenhuttl that he has yet to resolve.

His team are not completely out of form as they have progressed to the FA Cup Quarter Final through this poor League run, but Southampton have not always been consistent in the final third. Coupled with the defensive worries which has seen Southampton concede at least two goals in 5 of their last 6 games in the Premier League and I think there is every chance that Chelsea can extend their winning run at least one more game.

The Blues have shown an attacking threat in recent games, but they have also been organised defensively and I think that gives them a real edge. Chelsea have also won 5 in a row at St Mary's and I think they are capable of adding another three points here and keeping the pressure on the teams in and around the top four race to stay with them.

Burnley v West Brom Pick: If you are being honest you have to say that both West Brom and Sheffield United are almost certainly heading for Championship Football in the 2021/22 season as both have looked cut off at the bottom of the Premier League table.

Sam Allardyce has plenty of experience to pull teams out of trouble in the Premier League, but he has not had the kind of impact West Brom have wanted and this is a team struggling for results. 2 points from a possible 18 since beating Wolves in the Midlands derby suggests there isn't the confidence in the squad to avoid the drop and West Brom are continuing to concede far too many goals.

At least this weekend they are not facing a top attacking unit and West Brom did restrict Manchester United to a single strike last week.

However Burnley have created a lot of chances in their recent 1-1 home draws against Brighton and Fulham at Turf Moor and only some poor finishing has let them down. They have not been helped by gifting leads to both of those visitors, but Burnley have not offered out a lot of chances to the relegation rivals they have faced and Sean Dyche will have Ben Mee back for this one too.

With the goals that West Brom are conceding I do think Burnley deserve the edge in this match and I think they will find a way to the maximum points. It will be close and another draw can't be ruled out, but that is no good to West Brom and I feel they may have to take the risks which will open spaces for Burnley who have been creating enough to produce one more goal than they concede.

Liverpool v Everton Pick: In recent years the Merseyside derby has become a pattern depending on where the game is played- those at Goodison Park have tended to finish up as draws, while Liverpool have dominated the victories at Anfield and the feeling is that the midweek results have once again given Liverpool the momentum to take into the latest derby.

While Liverpool were bouncing back from their latest Premier League setback with a win over Leipzig in the Champions League, Everton have lost back to back home games against Fulham and Manchester City. They played much better in the second of those games than the first, but Everton will have had some confidence dented.

Dominic Calvert-Lewin could return and that is a boost for Everton, while they have been better away from home than at Goodison Park. In fact Everton are unbeaten in 7 away games in the Premier League and they have scored at least twice in 5 of those fixtures so they won't be worried about taking on a Liverpool backline which is still leaking chances.

At the same time Everton have not looked that convincing at the back themselves and there are signs Liverpool are returning to form in the final third. They created chances against Leicester City and perhaps should have gotten a lot more out of that game than they eventually did, while Sadio Mane and Mohamed Salah both scored during the week to give themselves some belief.

Goals at Anfield have not been easy to come by, but Liverpool will feel they can get after an Everton team which has conceded three or more goals in 3 of their last 4 overall. Everton haven't had a clean sheet in the Premier League since Boxing Day and this feels like a derby that could see both teams hitting the back of the net with the strengths being in the final third compared with the defensive third.

Only 3 of the last 9 Merseyside derby games have finished with at least three goals shared out, but that includes the last Premier League game at Anfield which ended 5-2 in favour of the home team. This feels like a game in which both teams will have to use attack as the best form of defence and I think they are likely to be involved in a higher-scoring derby than we are used to seeing.

Fulham v Sheffield United Pick: Two clubs inside the bottom three of the Premier League meeting in late February is clearly going to be a very important fixture and that is the case for Fulham and Sheffield United.

However, I do think this game should mean more to Fulham because they have a much more realistic path to get themselves out of relegation trouble compared with Sheffield United. That doesn't mean the visitors will roll over for Fulham, but the feeling is that even a win for The Blades will only be postponing what looks like an inevitable relegation and so the three points are much crucial to Scott Parker's team.

If Fulham can win they will move to within 3 points of safety having earned 4 points over the last week, while they also hold the goal difference edge over Newcastle United. The victory will give this Fulham team a huge jolt of confidence, but they have not played as well at home as they have away from Craven Cottage and you can't ignore the fact that Fulham are the lowest home scorers in the Division.

At the same time Sheffield United are the only club in the Premier League that have lost at least 10 away League games this season. The Blades have not been sharp enough in the final third having scored just 6 away goals this season and defensively they are liable to a mistake or two which will give teams a chance.

Fulham have been playing better defensively, but this is a team who have been lacking goals. They have been inconsistent in the final third all season, but there have been one or two signs they are finding their feet and Fulham may have a very slight edge in the fixture.

It won't be easy for either team and there will be some tense moments, while a mistake could prove to be the difference on the day. The home team have just shown a little more at both ends of the pitch compared with Sheffield United and I do think Fulham have an opportunity for a big three points to keep the momentum going before fixtures look to be getting a little tougher.

You can't really rule out the draw with confidence, but Sheffield United have not been as solid as their results may indicate and were fortunate not to be beaten by West Brom at home. Fulham are playing a little better than the two teams that are below them in the Premier League table and I think they earn a narrow victory in this game.

West Ham United v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: The extra days off should really favour West Ham United in this Premier League fixture and they have to take advantage of that if they are going to continue their unexpected challenge for Champions League Football next season.

It is not just the extra days of recovery, but the form has been decent too and that has to be encouragement to David Moyes and his players.

Michail Antonio's absence would be a blow, but West Ham United have continued to create chances without him and I think they are a dangerous team as long as they have belief in their own game. That was not the case in their home defeat to Liverpool last month, but you have to think the players will have learned from that and they should not be in awe of a Tottenham Hotspur team that have been struggling for form.

A big win in the First Leg of the Europa League Last 32 means there is little pressure on the Second Leg and Jose Mourinho can turn his attention to the Premier League. The position looks precarious, but Tottenham Hotspur could be right back in the top four mix with a win at the London Stadium and they have won their last 4 away games at West Ham United.

Tottenham Hotspur have struggled away from home in the Premier League in recent weeks with a single win in their last 7 on their travels. They should have a fresh Harry Kane ready to go, but Tottenham Hotspur will have to be better defensively if they are going to finish in the Champions League spots, which has to be the minimum aim for Jose Mourinho at the end of this season.

Both teams should be strong in the final third with the recent performances they have produced, but neither has looked convincing at the back.

Games between these rivals have tended to be high-scoring and that includes the 3-3 draw at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this season. I have also noted that there are plenty of recent games where the losing team has made late comebacks which have either been completed or come up a little short so neither will feel comfortable until the final whistle is blown and the points are secured.

In 2 of the last 3 Premier League games here, West Ham United have fallen 0-3 down and then almost fully recovered in 2-3 defeats. David Moyes will want a stronger start in this one though, but I do think goals are likely to be the outcome between these teams with at least three expected on Sunday lunchtime.

Aston Villa v Leicester City Pick: This is really a fixture that could develop in a couple of different ways and I am of the feeling that an early goal could open things up.

Neither Aston Villa nor Leicester City will want to give too much away as they both look for a surprising spot in the top four at the end of this season, but Dean Smith's men do have a few more days to rest and prepare for this one. While Leicester City have played in Europe on Thursday, Aston Villa have not been in action since last Saturday evening and they should be ready to go.

They are facing a Leicester City team with some key injuries in the back, but Aston Villa will also be well aware of how good Leicester City have been away from home. Brendan Rodgers will set his team up to counter the spaces Aston Villa do leave and the injury to Matty Cash at right back will be a disruption for the hosts.

Aston Villa have been giving up some massive opportunities of late and this Leicester City team have a very good front line that should be more clinical than the likes of Southampton and Brighton have been. The goalkeeper has been important, but Aston Villa will need to get on the front foot in this one with attack being the best form of defence at times and I do think this will be a decent fixture.

3 of the last 5 between these clubs have finished up with at least three goals shared out and I do think an early goal opens this fixture up.

Both teams should be looking for the maximum points and that should keep the intensity up, but much will depend on a first half goal to prevent the teams from perhaps becoming more and more cautious as they begin to fear defeat than think about the positives of a victory.

Arsenal v Manchester City Pick: The Champions League resumes during the week and Manchester City's focus will turn to that shortly, but Pep Guardiola has made it clear to his players to ignore the schedule and play matches as they come. He will rotate his first eleven to keep players fresh as Manchester City remain in contention for all four competitions they entered back in August and Manchester City are playing with real confidence.

A 17th win in a row in all competitions is keeping the momentum going and Manchester City have won 10 away games in succession. They have scored at least two goals in their last 9 and many of those fixtures have ended in comfortable wins for Manchester City with the strong defence now being backed up by a motivated forward line.

They will feel they can hurt this Arsenal team who have been conceding goals and who have been giving up some chances even when going through a period of better results. Mikel Arteta will be pleased by the progress he is seeing, but his Arsenal team are still lacking consistency and they have not had much success against this Manchester City team.

The last 5 at the Emirates Stadium have not only ended in defeats, but defeats by two or more goal margins. That includes a thumping defeat in the League Cup Quarter Final and Arsenal have also allowed some big chances to Manchester United in a recent goalless draw here.

Ultimately they are now taking on the best team in England and a team that looks to have overcome any injuries that have affected them. This weekend it looks like Manchester City have a much stronger squad all around with the returns of Kevin De Bruyne and Ilkay Gundogan expected and I simply don't think Arsenal will be able to stay with their visitors.

Having had one day less than Manchester City to prepare and travelling back from Italy are other factors going against Arsenal and I think the away team produce an 11th win in a row away from the Etihad Stadium. Like the previous 9, I think Manchester City will win by a good margin too if showing the clinical finishing they have been of late.

Manchester United v Newcastle United Pick: The big win in Italy on Thursday afternoon has set Manchester United up for a comfortable passage to the Last 16 of the Europa League and the hope will be that the result can spark the Premier League form.

A poor 1-1 draw at West Brom last weekend has ended any real hopes of challenging Manchester City for the title, but Manchester United cannot expect to coast into the top four. They have to pick up their form and there will be some pressure on them depending on how their top four rivals have performed in earlier games played this weekend.

Even that won't be an excuse for Manchester United when they host a slumping Newcastle United team. Steve Bruce's men are edging closer and closer towards the bottom three with 7 losses in their last 9 Premier League games, but recent wins at Everton and Southampton have just about kept The Magpies clear of the relegation zone.

However the gap may be as close as 3 points if Fulham have beaten Sheffield United earlier this weekend and that will put pressure on Newcastle United. Despite the bid to play improved attacking football, Steve Bruce's men are struggling in the final third and the injury to Callum Wilson does not help at all.

They have not scored in 5 of their last 6 away games and Manchester United, for all their mistakes at the back, have not given up a huge amount of chances in recent games. It feels like Manchester United will be punished whenever they make mistakes at the moment, but their visitors are without their best striker and I would expect a relatively comfortable evening for the hosts.

Manchester United should have enough attacking threat to break down this Newcastle United team that is likely without Federico Fernandez and I think they can win with what has been a rare clean sheet of late.

Brighton v Crystal Palace Pick: The M23 derby is played on Monday Night Football this week and Brighton look plenty short to win the game at odds on.

They are playing well and Brighton are unbeaten in 6 Premier League games, but last weekend was further evidence of the issues that have dragged them into the relegation battle. Namely they don't score enough goals despite the really good chances they are able to create and I imagine purchasing a striker will be a big request Graham Potter has of the board in the summer.

His team are still churning out results without a consistency in the final third and that is because Brighton have found a really good balance defensively. It has seen them restricting the threat teams are posing against them and Brighton have been able to edge away from the bottom three.

A win on Monday will see them take a big step towards maintaining their Premier League status for another season and Brighton have to be confident they can restrict a Crystal Palace team missing Wilfred Zaha. Without that magic from their best player, Crystal Palace have looked short of ideas and confidence and it has seen them lose back to back games without scoring a goal.

Any derby can produce some strange results though when the form guide may be pointing in one direction, while Crystal Palace did win here last season and were minutes away from beating Brighton at home earlier this season. Roy Hodgson has had plenty of time to work with the players he has available and, despite a long injury list, he will be looking for a much better performance than has been seen in the last 2 League games.

At odds on it is hard to back Brighton, but Crystal Palace can't be trusted without Wilfred Zaha either. Both defences will feel they can get on top of what has been inconsistent attacks to say the least and I would not be surprised if one of these teams fails to score.

Crystal Palace have not scored in 5 of their last 6 away games in all competitions, while Brighton have conceded once in their last 6 Premier League games. During the same run, The Seagulls have only scored 4 goals themselves and have had goalless draws with the likes of Fulham, Newcastle United and Burnley here already this season and so the feeling is we are going to see at least one clean sheet on the scoreboard at the end of this one.

Leeds United v Southampton Pick: The European Football will take most of the headlines during the week, but there are games to be made up in the Premier League and Leeds United and Southampton have found a slot for one of the fixtures they have to complete.

Both teams were involved early this past weekend so they should have had time to prepare, although both Leeds United and Southampton are stretched through injury. It means there are unlikely to be wholesale changes as both clubs look to earn the points to confirm Premier League Football for another season as soon as possible.

That might sound like weak ambitions, but I think it would be the makings of a strong season for a newly promoted club and another who have been involved in too many relegation battles in recent years. Both will have more convincing aims of trying to finish in the top half of the table, while Southampton have the bonus of a FA Cup Quarter Final to be played next month.

Neither team has shown much consistency of late, but Leeds United look to have the edge being at home and with more wins over the last few weeks. The 1-1 draw for Southampton against Chelsea snapped a 6 game losing run in the Premier League and it should be noted that Leeds United look to be the more creative of the two taking part in this one.

You can't really rely on Leeds United to produce a big defensive effort, but they controlled Wolves in the 1-0 defeat on Friday and it was only a ridiculously poor piece of luck which cost them a result. In the last home game Leeds United kept a clean sheet against Crystal Palace too and I do lean towards them earning the victory here.

It won't be easy as Southampton have been a team that can be very good on their day and have attacking players that can cause problems, but containing Leeds United may be beyond them.

Both teams have had inconsistent results over the last month, but the feeling is that Leeds United have been creating more chances than their visitors. With a little more composure in the final third, I think Leeds United will edge to the three points.

MY PICKS: Wolves-Leeds United Over 2.5 Goals

Chelsea

Burnley - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Liverpool-Everton Over 2.5 Goals
Fulham - 0.25 Asian Handicap

Fantasy Football GameWeek 25

It was a solid week for the Fantasy Football team in GW24 with almost 100 points earned and that is without using a Chip.

As I am writing this most in the Community are still waiting to see which fixtures are going to be placed in GameWeek 26 which looks like being the biggest Double GameWeek remaining this season. The comments made by Pep Guardiola before the match against Everton suggests Manchester City will be playing Wolves in GW26 as an addition to the home match against West Ham United, while they will then be facing Southampton the following week.

However it may mean having to wait until close to the GW25 deadline, which is Friday evening, before we get an idea as to how the March calendar is going to look.

That is an issue for my team with the idea that the Bench Boost Chip is best to be employed in DGW26 and with two free transfers to use this week. Both Leeds United and Southampton are on a double this week so I don't really want to touch those assets, but I do have to make use of one and then keep two for the following week when I can shape my squad to cover as many Doubles as possible.

It is causing problems and I am wondering whether Everton and Southampton will be the teams with most DGWs remaining this season if their match scheduled for Monday 1st March is not moved/swapped with another earlier that weekend. If it isn't, they won't be involved in a DGW in 26, but will have at least two matches each that need to be re-scheduled and that is after the Southampton match at Manchester City is already likely to be played in GW27.

By the time most read this we should have a release of the fixtures for GW26, but I would not be surprised if Aston Villa vs Everton is set for a DGW27.

I still believe there will be twelve teams on a DGW, but the irritation would be if Southampton are not one of those teams. It would mean I have as many as six players missing the double, which loses some of the impact of the Bench Boost. That means I will be making my Free Transfer this week as late as possible to the Friday 6:30pm deadline, although I won't be touching the four players in the squad that are scheduled to play twice this week (Che Adams seemingly has been dropped from the starting eleven for Southampton which is a blow, but I will keep him in as he may get at least one full game and a sub appearance in the other).

The most likely transfer will involve Aaron Cresswell as someone who is guaranteed to be playing only one fixture in DGW26 and that coming at Manchester City no less. A bigger decision may be which teams to target to replace him, but much will depend on the fixtures released for March which I am hopeful will be out before the deadline as I have mentioned before.

I will update my team on Twitter around the deadline.

Australian Open Tennis Day 12 Picks 2021 (February 19th)

The end of the latest run in a Grand Slam for Serena Williams looked a little more final than we have seen in previous years and you do have to wonder if she is considering calling time on her career. I am not entirely surprised even if Williams looked as strong as ever in Melbourne this past two weeks, but time doesn't stop for any player and there are some major threats in the Women's game these days and I am not sure Serena will ever be able to win the Singles Grand Slam title she needs to match Margaret Court.

Wimbledon and the US Open offers big opportunities, but time is running out and I think there will be other names that start as favourites at both of those Grand Slams later this year.

It has been a spectacular career if this is indeed the final year on the Tour for Serena Williams, and she looks to have passed the torch to someone who idolised her growing up. Naomi Osaka can become the dominant force on the WTA Tour for years to come if she so wishes, although there are some quality players at the top of that Tour who will believe they can get the better of a player that has to show improvement on the clay and grass courts.

It makes Women's Tennis appealing to fans with some uncertainty as to how a tournament will develop, but it is also important to have a star like Naomi Osaka beginning to build her own legacy in the sport and be able to take over from the 'legends' when they are ready to be moved aside.

It has been a long-term issue in the Men's game with the Big Three dominating over the years, but finally we may be seeing other players ready to challenge the elite. If either Daniil Medvedev or Stefanos Tsitsipas are able to win the title, they will become the youngest first time Grand Slam Winner in a little under twelve years and could see that player going on to superstar status.

Novak Djokovic will be waiting for the winner though and beating him here is as big a challenge as knocking off Roger Federer at Wimbledon and Rafael Nadal at the French Open. With an extra day of recovery under his belt and looking like he is firmly over whatever injury plagued him in the Third Round, Novak Djokovic is going to be a big favourite on Sunday and it will be up to the winner of the second Semi Final to have to dig deep and try and knock off one of the top names in the sport on their favourite Grand Slam surface.

Daniil Medvedev-Stefanos Tsitsipas over 38.5 games: For a long time fans of the ATP have been waiting for the 'Next Gen' of stars to make their impact at the Grand Slam level and we have seen some of those players getting closer and closer to doing so. One of the 'Big Three' is already waiting in the Final of the 2021 Australian Open, but both Daniil Medvedev and Stefanos Tsitsipas are much improved young players and they meet in a big Semi Final with every confidence that the winning player will have the belief to go on and win a maiden Grand Slam title.

Daniil Medvedev has celebrated his 25th birthday during the Australian Open, while Stefanos Tsitsipas is 22 years old- if either goes on to win the title here this week, they would be the youngest first time Men's Grand Slam Champion since Juan Martin Del Potro won the 2009 US Open as a 20 year old.

That underlines some of the development of sports science which means Tennis players can extend their careers longer than they would, but also the weight of expectation that fans have had on younger players as they look for them to announce themselves at the highest level.

Both of these players are operating at elite level and the match being played under the lights will help with the physical issues that both will likely have been dealing with. Daniil Medvedev was cramping right after his Quarter Final win over compatriot Andrey Rublev with both players suffering in the heat, while Stefanos Tsitsipas was on the court for over four hours two days ago as he became the second player to recover from two sets down to beat Rafael Nadal at a Grand Slam tournament.

Earlier in the tournament Stefanos Tsitsipas benefited from a walkover too so he has played one fewer match than his rival, but he has twice needed over four hours to win matches. There is also the emotional and physical energy needed to come from two sets down to win a match at any time which has to be a factor in this one and I think it is going to be a big test for Stefanos Tsitsipas.

The layers seem to believe the same with Daniil Medvedev going in as the favourite, but the raw numbers from the tournament suggests it will be a close match. Unsurprisingly the Russian has the superior return numbers, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has shown off stronger returning than we have come to expect of him in the early stages of his career and the Greek top tenner also has been serving at a higher level than his opponent.

Despite playing one match fewer, Stefanos Tsitsipas has actually spent more time on court than his opponent and the head to head is heavily in favour of Daniil Medvedev. The latter has won five of their previous six matches and leads on the hard courts 4-1, while Medvedev will extract some confidence from the fact he has never been beaten outdoors by Stefanos Tsitsipas.

However, there has been a clear sign that Medvedev has had more issues facing the Tsitsipas serve in the last few meetings- in each of the last three hard court matches, Daniil Medvedev has won 33%, 31% and then 30% of return points played and the break points created have slipped from five to three to zero in those matches too.

It has to be encouragement for the improving Greek star, although he has had a tough time dealing with the Daniil Medvedev serve too and I think the performances in the Australian Open suggest this is going to be a tight match. I would be surprised if either player is able to run through in straight sets, although my edge goes with Daniil Medvedev because of the emotional and physical effort Stefanos Tsitsipas has had to put into his Quarter Final win over Rafael Nadal.

The serving is going to be key for both players on the faster courts in Melbourne this year and I think the two players can combine for enough games to cover this total line set as long as we see at least four sets. Tie-breakers won't be a surprise and they played out a tight match on a fast court in Shanghai eighteen months ago which was eventually won 7-6, 7-5 by Daniil Medvedev.

The only concern for the selection is that Daniil Medvedev is able to win the first two sets- I think that could see a flat Stefanos Tsitsipas beaten, but anything else should make this a very competitive match with both players serving at a really strong level. It could be the kind of match that Novak Djokovic will enjoy as much as the fans with the winner being drained for the Final in two days time, but it should be a memorable Semi Final and I will look for the two players to produce some excellent tennis in a tight match.

MY PICKS: Daniil Medvedev-Stefanos Tsitsipas Over 38.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 46-42, - 3.22 Units (176 Units Staked, - 1.83% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 11 Picks 2021 (February 18th)

The Australian Open is the only Grand Slam I can think of that plays three Semi Final matches in the Singles tournament on one day and the other one the following day.

It has long felt like it might not be ideal for the Men's tournament with the winner of one half of the draw being given a day less to prepare for the Sunday Final, although at least it is better than what the US Open used to do with the Final played a day after the Semi Finals.

This also means Day 11 is the last really busy one at the Australian Open and for us over in the United Kingdom there will be no more night tennis after this day is completed and placed in the books. The two Women's Semi Finals are played during the day, with the remainder of the Men's tournament now going to be completed in the Night Sessions at Melbourne Park.

And importantly the fans are back!

I can't help but imagine how good the atmosphere would have been during the Day 10 Quarter Finals with Stefanos Tsitsipas fighting back from 0-2 down in sets to beat Rafael Nadal. The Greek youngster gets a huge amount of support in Melbourne and he will be looking forward to playing in front of the fans on Friday and hopefully Sunday too.

Ashleigh Barty could have done with the fans too after blowing a set and a break lead in her Quarter Final defeat, but there are still some big matches to come and there will be a presence in the stands. The atmosphere in Melbourne does tend to be amongst the best you will see on the Tour and I think it will only add to the spectacle of the Semi Finals and Finals to be played over the next four days.

Naomi Osaka - 2.5 games v Serena Williams: The draw has panned out in such a way that many will consider this the de facto Women's Final when Naomi Osaka takes on Serena Williams in the first of the three Semi Finals to be played on Day 11 at the Australian Open. Both are the two remaining Grand Slam Champions in the draw and they are guaranteed to meet a first time Finalist which will only increase the edge in the favour of one of these two players.

Whoever wins will almost certainly be going into the Final as a relatively big favourite, but this is a tough Semi Final for both Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams. There is pressure on the shoulders of both players and their previous three matches have tended to have very little rhythm broken up with all of those finishing in straight sets for the winning player.

Those three matches have barely been competitive once the player getting on top has gotten into that position- Naomi Osaka leads the head to head 2-1, including that famous win in the 2018 US Open Final, but their most recent match came the following year in Canada which was won by Serena Williams without facing a single break point on the day.

Serving is going to be absolutely massive in this Semi Final and the player who can get the higher percentage of first serves in play will feel they can control the match. During the tournament it is Serena Williams who has had the edge in first serve percentage made, but it is a narrow edge and Naomi Osaka has been able to protect the second serve more effectively of the two players.

The return edge is with Serena Williams too as she chases down Margaret Court's record for Grand Slam Singles titles won, and that is something that Naomi Osaka will have to be aware of as she looks to play first strike tennis against her idol. The American has won over 50% of points on the return in four of her five matches so far this week, while Naomi Osaka has not managed to do the same since the First Round against Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova.

However Naomi Osaka has found the right moments to go on the attack on the return and has actually created more break points than Serena Williams in the last two Rounds combined. That shows her game is more than healthy enough to take on this challenge, while the match is scheduled at a time when the court conditions should be quick to make the serve the key shot for both players.

I have been impressed with the Serena Williams fitness in the tournament so far, but this is not a match that is really going to test that. I expect plenty of short rallies, big hitting and both players hitting through a fast court and much is going to come down to the fine margins.

Overall it does feel like this is going to be competitive, but Naomi Osaka may have the slight edge with the superior second serve, although much of the match is going to be played between the ears. The fans are going to back in attendance as far as the plans have been made, and that should make this a vibrant atmosphere for the players to perform in and it is very hard to oppose Serena Williams with the kind of form she has displayed.

However she was a touch fortunate to get past Aryna Sabalenk and I think Naomi Osaka is a better version of the Belarusian at this stage of their careers. The Japanese superstar has won three Grand Slam titles so I would be disappointed if nerves were to get the better of her and with the slightly superior serving numbers I think it will be Osaka who takes her place in the Final on Saturday and keep Serena waiting a little longer for her 24th Grand Slam Singles title.

Karolina Muchova-Jennifer Brady over 21.5 games: After reaching the Semi Final at the US Open back in September, the Jennifer Brady run to the Semi Final at the Australian Open is perhaps a less surprising one than the run Karolina Muchova has had in the tournament. Both players are looking to reach a Grand Slam Final for the first time and both came through difficult Quarter Final matches when they trailed by a set before tuning the match around in their own favour.

The Brady run has been much more impressive in terms of her performances, but Karolina Muchova has had three upset wins in a row when she has had to fight back from tough spots within those matches. Those wins can only build confidence, although not everyone was happy with the Medical TimeOut in her win over Ashleigh Barty on Wednesday even if it is something that is within the rules of the sport.

Without a doubt it changed the momentum of the match irreversibly having trailed by a set and a break at the time before Karolina Muchova was able to run through the next two sets with eleven games won out of fourteen played. Her opponent didn't complain, but it is clear that most feel it was a tactical decision rather than an actual medical issue and Muchova was able to use the time to clear her head.

She will feel she has the momentum with wins over Karolina Pliskova, Elise Mertens and Barty behind her, but this is not going to be an easier match. Nerves will be a factor in a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final, but Jennifer Brady experienced the spot just a few months ago and was able to push Naomi Osaka the distance before losing to the eventual Champion.

Her serve is a powerful weapon and Jennifer Brady has to believe it gives her a chance to win this match- in the last Round she did have some struggles on the serve, but the American still won over 80% of the first serve points played and that kind of number is one that will always give her a chance to win matches having started 2021 in strong form.

However it should be noted that Jennifer Brady has not had to beat a single opponent Ranked higher than World Number 33 in the tournament so far. At this stage Karolina Muchova has beaten three top 16 Ranked players and that difference is one that will give Muchova confidence that she is not such an underdog in the match.

There is no doubting that Karolina Muchova has not served as well as Jennifer Brady, but the fight and belief she has shown makes her dangerous. In their sole previous match on the Tour, Karolina Muchova deservedly beat Jennifer Brady, but it took three sets and was played on the clay and the latter is much improved from that meeting in April 2019.

This does feel like it is going to be a close match and one that could potentially go the distance- the conditions should favour Jennifer Brady, but it is hard to ignore the belief Karolina Muchova has had to turn matches back around in her favour. Players have had more success going after the Jennifer Brady second serve and that could be a good avenue for Muchova to have her own chances to win this match, but I don't think anyone would be surprised if this match goes the distance.

Even two tight, competitive sets could be enough to cover this total games line and I think both Jennifer Brady and Karolina Muchova are playing with enough confidence to not lose belief in their own game. My lean goes towards Brady, but Karolina Muchova has made it a habit to fight back from what looks like inevitable losing positions and this could be another close match.

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 games v Aslan Karatsev: I have little doubt that Novak Djokovic was shocked by whatever he pulled in his eventual Third Round win over Taylor Fritz, but his performances in the last two Rounds suggests he is more than coping with the situation. The eight time Australian Open is favourite to win another title in Melbourne and I think the fact that his remaining two matches will be played under the lights will only aid him.

Novak Djokovic would have been the favourite to beat most players on the Melbourne Park courts once he got to this stage of the tournament, but that position has been strengthened by the fact he is playing an unheralded opponent. No one could have really predicted the kind of run Aslan Karatsev has had at the Australian Open and he will be looking to match the likes of Marcos Baghdatis and Jo-Wilfred Tsonga who have made the Men's Final out of left field in recent times.

Make no mistake, an Aslan Karatsev appearance in the Final would be a much bigger surprise than either of those two players. The Qualifier has become only the second since 1977 to reach the Australian Open Semi Final after overcoming a clearly hobbled Grigor Dimitrov in the Quarter Final, while he is also the lowest Ranked player to reach the last four of a Major in thirty years too.

He has nothing to lose and Aslan Karatsev has shown remarkable poise even when he has been put under pressure, a real surprise considering he he has never played in the main draw of a Grand Slam before. No other debutant has managed to enjoy the kind of run the Russian has so far in Melbourne, and he has recovered from slow starts to win his last two matches.

So many records have tumbled, but Karatsev was fortunate to be playing an injured Dimitrov in the Quarter Final who couldn't serve or more as he would have hoped. Barring something similar happening to Novak Djokovic, it is hard to make a serious case for the underdog to upset the odds. He was two sets down against Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round and was being dominated in the match before turning things around, but again it is very hard to believe he can do that against the World Number 1 who has dominated the Australian Open over the years.

There has to be a little concern in the Russian's camp that the three sets he has lost in the tournament have come by 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3 scores and now he is going up a considerable level. Beating Felix Auger-Aliassime is a solid result, but it was a match that could have easily gone the other way, while a match against an injured Grigor Dimitrov is not the same as facing what has looked a relatively healthy Novak Djokovic.

The latter was fortunate to beat Alexander Zverev who had chances in three of the four sets played, but Novak Djokovic is very comfortable on this court. It is a surprise that two of the last three Djokovic opponents have earned more break points in the match than the World Number 1, but the same has happened to Aslan Karatsev and Novak Djokovic has had the superior serving numbers in the tournament.

Aslan Karatsev's run in the Australian Open has been a real Cinderella story, but the feeling is that the clock is going to strike midnight in this Semi Final. While I can see a couple of sets being competitive, I think Novak Djokovic is going to be a little more comfortable with more time to recover since the Third Round win last week and I believe his returning will eventually crack his opponent.

This is a big number for a Semi Final and Novak Djokovic has had one of his more difficult Australian Opens to this point, but he should have the returning skills to fashion the break points that an injured Dimitrov and Diego Sebastian Schwartzman managed against Aslan Karatsev. The evening conditions may also have an affect with this being the first time the underdog will have played in them in the tournament and I think Novak Djokovic earns his spot in Sunday's Final with a strong win when all is said and done.

MY PICKS: Naomi Osaka - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova-Jennifer Brady Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 7.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 43-42, - 8.36 Units (170 Units Staked, - 4.92% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 10 Picks 2021 (February 17th)

On Day 9 at the Australian Open two of the four Semi Final matches were put together and we will complete the line up on Day 10.

This tournament feels like it could be broken up into three pieces- first we had the fans, then we didn't, but news has come out that from Day 11 we will hopefully have fans for the remainder of the event. It is not an easy position for the players to deal with, but I do think the spectacle of the first Grand Slam of the season will be greatly improved with real life fan reactions rather than the piped in nonsense we have all had to accept for months.

Earlier in the tournament we have seen the kind of impact fans can have on live sporting events and the good news is that we are likely to be treated to some big matches in the remainder of the Australian Open. Those will only be improved with the atmosphere coming down from the stands and it will hopefully be a picture that is replicated at the other Slams to be played through the course of the season.

Most players don't really know what they are going to get out of the tournaments scheduled through the remainder of the year and the questions have come up about how other nations will deal with quarantine requirements. It has been suggested that players won't travel for the 'smaller' events that are played over the course of the season if they have to go through the kind of hard quarantine we saw in Australia, while Covid-19 is not going away any time soon which means there are likely to be further disruptions with players or close contacts testing positive in events.

For now it is something we have to deal with as fans, but it is much more difficult for players and it will be interesting to see how they cope with the travel and movement around the globe which is part of the Tour in normal times.

I am still hopeful that by the time the European clay court season rolls around that we will be in a much stronger position to handle these big tournaments, and the year should improve the longer it goes.

We have got two Semi Finals ready to go on Thursday and I have to say it is little surprise that Novak Djokovic is now the odds on favourite to win the title in Australia for the ninth time in his career. He looks to be over the injury that hindered him in the Third Round and the 'easier' path through to the Final could be important to the outcome of this tournament on Sunday, especially with an extra day of rest to prepare for the Final.

No one will take Aslan Karatsev for granted, but it would be a massive upset if the Qualifier is able to beat the eight time Australian Open Champion. He benefited from a major Grigor Dimitrov injury in the Quarter Final and may need that kind of fortune to get through this Semi Final, although Karatsev will become a familiar name on the main Tour for at least the next twelve months thanks to the run here.

The first of the Women's Semi Finals has also been confirmed and I think both Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams will be confident in their chances of winning that match on Thursday. I think it could be a really good match to watch in the form both have displayed and the winner will certainly feel they have enough to go on and win the title on Saturday.

Before that we have to complete the Semi Final line up and that means there are four more Quarter Finals to be played on Day 10 at the tournament.

Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 games v Karolina Muchova: When the draw for the Australian Open was made there would have been plenty that thought a Karolina from the Czech Republic would be line to have a good tournament. The large majority of those people would have figured that would be Pliskova rather than Muchova though, but it is the latter who has made her way through to the Quarter Final after yet another successful recovery to earn a straight sets win.

All credit has to be given to Karolina Muchova for the belief she seemingly has in her own game having come from 5-0 down to beat compatriot Karolina Pliskova 7-5 in the Third Round and then recovering from 4-0 and 5-2 down to win a pivotal first set against Elise Mertens in the Fourth Round. It does mean Muchova has yet to drop a set at the Australian Open and her surprising run has continued as she is set to be placed as the underdog again.

I am a fan of any player that is willing to lay it all on the line and refuse to give up in sets, even if Karolina Muchova has hurt a couple of my selections in the last few days, but it also should be pointed out that she seems to be on the right side of inches. In Tennis those inches can mean the difference between a win and a loss and it says plenty that Karolina Muchova has only earned more break points in one of the four matches she has played in Melbourne over the last ten days.

Her service numbers have been pretty average and it is a shot that can be attacked, but it is the Muchova return which has sparked her run to the Quarter Final. That is going to be a key shot again when she takes on home hope Ashleigh Barty who will have hoped the fans could be in attendance to support her in her bid to finally produce another home winner at this Grand Slam.

Ashleigh Barty coped in her Fourth Round win over Shelby Rogers and like Karolina Muchova she is yet to drop a set at the Australian Open. The difference has been that the Australian has tended to win her sets more routinely than Karolina Muchova and that is highlighted by the fact that Barty has only won a single set where her opponent has won more than four games, while Muchova has only won two sets where her opponent has won less than four games.

The serve looks like being a real difference maker between the two players in this Quarter Final and it says something that Ashleigh Barty has faced six break points across her last two matches which is the same number as Karolina Muchova faced in her last match alone. The first serve is a big weapon for Barty and she is actually producing stronger returning numbers than her opponent while backing up her title win in the warm up event that was played here.

The time that Karolina Muchova is having to spend on the court is beginning to add up too and I think this is all going to factor in to favour the home player who reached the Quarter Final in Melbourne in 2019 and the Semi Final in 2020. Ashleigh Barty will feel she can go one better this time around and I think she will not be as likely to blow a lead against Karolina Muchova as the latter's last two opponents have done.

These two players met at the US Open in 2018 in the Third Round and it was a competitive match that Ashleigh Barty deserved to win. I think she will be able to do the same here despite the improvements being made by Karolina Muchova and I think Ashleigh Barty will be a little too good on the serve and return which leads to her getting the better of this handicap mark.

Jennifer Brady-Jessica Pegula over 20.5 games: When you think of American female players that might make it to the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam the Williams sisters will likely be the first names that enter the mind. In more recent times the likes of Sofia Kenin have shown they can go deep into draws, but Jennifer Brady may be ready to become a more familiar name at the business end of tournaments having reached the Semi Final at the US Open and now having this run in Melbourne.

She is faced up with a compatriot in the form of Jessica Pegula who is beginning to make her own name in the sports world and not simply be known as one of the daughters of Terry Pegula, the owner of the Buffalo Bills. An upset win over Elina Svitolina has taken Jessica Pegula into the Quarter Final of a Grand Slam for the first time and she looks set to earn a new career high World Ranking in the weeks ahead.

The underdog in this Quarter Final did drop a set for the first time in the win over Svitolina, but she has to be feeling very comfortable about her level and Jessica Pegula has long shown she is a solid hard court player. The numbers have largely been better than that in this run to the Quarter Final and it is the serve that has given her a spark with just thirteen break points faced in the first four matches in the tournament.

It is a strong number, especially in the WTA side of the Singles draw, and one that has given Pegula the chance to tee off on the return where she has won almost 49% of points played. She has broken at least four times in every match in the Australian Open and Jessica Pegula has created at least seven break points in each Round, numbers that will certainly make her feel pretty confident about her chances of earning another upset in this Quarter Final.

Nerves could be an issue for Pegula, but she will also be well aware of the kind of serving she is going to be facing from Jennifer Brady who has yet to drop a set in the tournament and has given up more than three games in one of the eight sets she has won this week. So much of that is down to the Brady serve which has produced some of the strongest numbers in the Women's draw this week and which has seen her face fewer break points than Jessica Pegala (Jennifer Brady has faced twelve break points).

Jennifer Brady has bene broken twice in the tournament compared with Jessica Pegula losing serve six times and you can understand why the former is the favourite. Having a serve that is giving very little away has also allowed Brady to win 51% of the return points played and I think she may have a bit too much for Pegula in this Quarter Final.

Like her opponent, Jennifer Brady has broken at least four times in each Round at the Australian Open and I do think she is going to feel she can earn a measure of revenge for losing the sole pro Tour meeting these two have had. That came in Cincinnati last August and saw Jessica Pegula win a tight match 7-6, 6-4 as both players were able to break the other at least four times with the serves not being as effective as you might have imagined.

It may be the conditions in Melbourne which are helping both get through their games a bit easier here, and I do think this is likely to be another competitive match between them. If one of the players is slightly off their best level on the serve it could end up being a one-sided match, but I think they are both playing well enough to push the other all the way and I really would not be that surprised if this match goes the distance.

Playing without a crowd may actually aid the nerves without the feeling coming down from the stands if things start slowly, while I think the two serves could see Jennifer Brady and Jessica Pegula run through some service games. Both have returned well enough to believe they can at least challenge the other more than most have so far this week, while I think picking a winner is not so easy as the odds may suggest.

My lean is that Jennifer Brady will find the big serves to just herself up for a few more 'easy' holds and that may prove to be the reason she is able to push through to the Semi Final. However I also think Jessica Pegula is playing at a strong level and will have the mental boost of knowing she beat Brady not long ago which will keep her competitive and the two players may have enough service juice to see them combine and cover this total games line.

Even two tight sets could get over the line here and I think we may see at least one tie-breaker which could set them well on the way to doing that even if the match is concluded in straight sets.

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 sets v Andrey Rublev: Playing each other in the Quarter Final of a tournament has become familiar to these two top 10 Ranked compatriots who are good friends on and off the court. The two Russians have really put the nation back on the map as they have taken over from the void left by the likes of Marat Safin and Nikolay Davydenko in recent years and the winner of this match will be confident they can go on and perhaps even become the first Men's player from the country to win a Grand Slam in sixteen years.

The last was won by Safin at the Australian Open in 2005, but Daniil Medvedev and Andrey Rublev won't be as surprising a winner as the charismatic Safin was that year. Over the last six to nine months, Medvedev and Rublev have been right up there as the very best hard court players in the world and they have both opened 2021 with eight straight wins and producing some eye-catching numbers which can only impress.

In this tournament both are holding over 90% of the service games played, but the real difference between the two can be seen in the returning numbers with Daniil Medvedev breaking in 41% of return games played compared with Andrey Rublev's 27% mark. There is also around a 7% edge in favour of the higher Ranked Medvedev when it comes to return points won and I do think that could end up being the reason why Andrey Rublev has to wait a little longer for a maiden Grand Slam Semi Final.

He is experienced with this being a fourth Quarter Final in the Majors, but Daniil Medvedev may hold a slight advantage having won both previous Quarter Finals in Grand Slams. Both have come at the US Open though and this is the first time, surprisingly, that Medvedev has reached the Quarter Final in one of the other three Grand Slams, although the conditions in Melbourne look much more up his street this year than previous years.

The other mental aspect that favours Daniil Medvedev is the 4-0 head to head record he holds against his friend Andrey Rublev which includes beating him in three hard court Quarter Finals. All four wins have come on this surface and the most recent was last September at the US Open in a match Medvedev won in straight sets.

It was a day of big serving with only one break point played in the entirety of the two and a half hours they spent on court that day. That came in favour of Daniil Medvedev who dominated behind serve and it has been a feature of their head to heads that the return of serve has favoured Medvedev.

Daniil Medvedev has held 91% of service games played against Andrey Rublev across those four previous matches and that is compared to the 70% mark held by the latter. There is also the marked difference between the two players when it comes to service points won and I do think Daniil Medvedev is going to get the better of things again with both operating at a really high level in the tournament.

We may even see Andrey Rublev win his first set against Daniil Medvedev on the pro Tour, but you have to favour the higher Ranked Russian and his superior return game. There hasn't been much to separate these players on the pure numbers over the last twelve months on the hard courts, but the head to head and the clear edge Daniil Medvedev has had on the return of serve can see him win another tough Quarter Final against his compatriot at a Grand Slam.

I would expect him to be able to do that in three or four sets with the slight edges he holds.

Rafael Nadal - 1.5 sets v Stefanos Tsitsipas: Getting through the first week of the Grand Slam without expending too much energy is always important for players and Stefanos Tsitsipas has also benefited from a walkover in this tournament. That is only strengthened by the strong performances the Greek star has put up in the first three Rounds of the Australian Open and the ATP Cup that was played in the lead up to the event and it will offer a lot of encouragement for the young man who is looking to earn a maiden Grand Slam title this season.

He has yet to reach a Major Final, but Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached two Semi Finals, one here and one at the French Open, while he has not lost a Quarter Final before. A win over Roger Federer at the Australian Open will also give Tsitsipas belief that he has the tools to down the best players in the world, while the returning in 2021 has been at an extremely high level from the small sample of matches we have seen over the last month.

That will offer plenty of encouragement to Stefanos Tsitsipas, but he will also be well aware of the man standing in his way to make it back to Grand Slam Semi Finals.

Rafael Nadal has shown little sign that the cautionary withdrawal from the ATP Cup to rest his back has hindered him in this tournament and he has won all four matches here without dropping a set and barely being troubled. Granted this is a big step up in level compared with the four players he has beaten so far, but Rafael Nadal is going to be feeling very pleased with where his game is at right now and that makes the Spaniard dangerous as he looks for the Grand Slam title which would see him surpass Roger Federer for most Majors won by a Men's player.

There is still a long way to go though and Nadal will be all too aware of his Quarter Final record in Melbourne compared with his performances at the other Grand Slams. Rafael Nadal has lost six Quarter Finals at the Australian Open, including his defeat to Dominic Thiem last year, and that is compared with just two Quarter Final losses at the other three Grand Slams combined.

Conditions in Melbourne don't seem to sit well with Nadal and he might be a touch disappointed this match is taking place in the Night Session having made it clear he likes the faster day conditions at the tournament. The remainder of the tournament will be played in the evening so there won't be excuses for Rafael Nadal, although it may be a reason he has had so many Quarter Final defeats here in the past.

The numbers are really strong for Rafael Nadal in the tournament with 92% of service games held and 40% of return games played leading to breaks of serve. That will be encouraging, but he is up against Stefanos Tsitsipas who has won all five matches played in 2021 and has been able to hold 98% of service games played in the Australian Open with breaks in 39% of return games played.

I have mentioned before I am not sure whether Stefanos Tsitsipas has figured out his return game or whether that is just an outlandish number from a small sample considering his last two seasons have produced breaks in less than 20% of return games played on the hard courts. But either way it will be tested in this match against an opponent that has largely dominated their previous meetings.

Rafael Nadal has a 6-1 head to head record which becomes 4-0 when considering their hard court meetings alone and one of those wins came here in Australia two years ago. The Semi Final became a one-sided affair in favour of the Spaniard, and Rafael Nadal has held 94% of the service games played against Stefanos Tsitsipas on the hard courts compared with the 71% number for the younger player.

The most recent meeting saw Nadal beat Tsitsipas at the ATP World Tour Finals in London in November, and it was perhaps more comfortable for the former than the three set match implies.

I do think Stefanos Tsitsipas has been working hard to close the gap to the likes of Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic, but there may still be a gap. Closing those head to head numbers won't be easy even at one of the 'weaker' Slams for Rafael Nadal, but this should be far more competitive than the Semi Final between the players in 2019.

However the Spaniard World Number 2 looks to be on a very strong path through this draw and Stefanos Tsitsipas hasn't matched up well enough with him to believe he can upset the odds. The 2021 form will have his fans believing, but Rafael Nadal has looked really good in the first four matches here and I think he will find the right plays at the big moments to win this one in three or four sets.

MY PICKS: Ashleigh Barty - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jennifer Brady-Jessica Pegula Over 20.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Rafael Nadal - 1.5 Sets @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 41-40, - 7.30 Units (162 Units Staked, - 4.51% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 9 Picks 2021 (February 16th)

We are down to the final eight players in both the Men's and Women's draws at the Australian Open and there look to be some fantastic matches that are still in front of us.

The Men's draw have put together at least three top quality looking matches that would have made plenty of appeal before a ball had been tossed in the tournament, while the Women's draw has been a mix of the elite and those ready to break into that conversation.

With a few days left before we get to the end of the tournament, I think both titles look open to all of the remaining players and they should all have some belief they can go on and pick up the trophies on offer over the weekend. I am pretty comfortable with the positioning of the Outright Selections with only two of the players selected going out of the tournament before the Quarter Final, but there is still work for those to do if they are going to provide a positive return.

The Tennis Picks have yet to really recover from what was a terrible couple of days over the Second Round, but there is time to turn things around and produce a positive return. Momentum is trending in a relatively decent direction, but the next couple of days will be important as matches run down.

We have four Quarter Finals set to be played on Day 9 and four more on Day 10 and I think it is going to be very enjoyable for the viewers. All of the Singles matches will now be played on the Rod Laver Arena with a couple during the day and a couple in the Night Session and my thoughts on those four matches from Day 9 can be read below.

Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 sets v Aslan Karatsev: It looked like the dream run at the Australian Open was going to come to an end for Aslan Karatsev in the Fourth Round a couple of days ago, but the recovery from 2-0 down in sets to beat Felix Auger-Aliassime has given the rank outsider another few days in Melbourne.

A whole host of streaks have been ended by this run- Aslan Karatsev is the first Qualifier to reach the Quarter Final at the Australian Open since 1991 and also the first Qualifier to make the Quarter Final of any Grand Slam since 2011. Add in the fact that he is the first debutant to reach the last eight of a Grand Slam in twenty-five years and the Russian has made a new name for himself.

For tennis fans the name has largely been associated with the darker side of the sport and that is something that is going to have a light shone on it the longer Aslan Karatsev is in the main draw. It will also be a potential story that follows him around in the coming months when he will become a regular on the main ATP Tour, but the focus has to be continuing his 'nothing to lose' attitude on the court and his numbers in the Australian Open have been staggering.

So far in the tournament Aslan Karatsev has only dropped two sets and he has held 88% of service games played, while the return has been a real threat with 41% of return games ending in a break of serve. These are stunning numbers compared to his previous successes on the main Tour, but the Russian has used his run of wins on the Challenger Tour to pick up his level on this grand stage and I think it will be a tough match for Grigor Dimitrov.

The Bulgarian may have missed his best chance to win a Grand Slam, but Dimitrov won't believe that and his straight sets win over US Open Champion Dominic Thiem in the Fourth Round will be encouraging and confidence building. He has yet to drop a set in the tournament and Grigor Dimitrov has held just under 94% of service games played and broken in 43% of return games which gives him a slight edge over the underdog.

Much could depend on how much emotional energy Aslan Karatsev used up in his win over Felix Auger-Aliassime in the Fourth Round. It is never easy to back up a win in five sets when you have to come from 0-2 behind and Dominic Thiem found that out against Grigor Dimitrov in the last Round.

While the numbers are strong, I do think you have to factor in the amount of break points that Karatsev has faced in this tournament. Both of these players are creating plenty of chances, but Grigor Dimitrov has not faced as many as Aslan Karatsev across the last three Rounds and I do think his experience at this level could be crucial.

The Australian Open has had a habit of finding a surprise player that can force their way through the draw, but I think this is where the Aslan Karatsev run will come to an end. Grigor Dimitrov will have to ride out some rough moments, but the feeling is that he will have the physical and emotional edge that can see him back up what have been stronger numbers so far in this tournament of the two players.

I think it will see Grigor Dimitrov to win this in either three or, more likely, four sets as he reaches a fourth Grand Slam Semi Final and the second time in Melbourne.

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 games v Alexander Zverev: After reaching the US Open Final in September and the Semi Final at the Australian Open last year, Alexander Zverev has made short work of the four opponents he has faced in the tournament this year. At 23 years old the German looks like he is ready to take the next step in his development, although we will see how Zverev responds to a much bigger challenge than he would have seen in the tournament so far.

None of the four wins have come against a player Ranked inside the top 20 of the World Rankings, but Alexander Zverev will still be feeling good about his chances, especially in light of some of the Novak Djokovic struggles.

An injury in the third set in the Third Round against Taylor Fritz meant Novak Djokovic had to bite down on the gum shield and come through in five sets, but there were all kinds of rumours and suggestions as to the seriousness of the injury. At the time Djokovic suggested he had torn a muscle which may have prevented him taking the court in the Fourth Round, but he didn't just play against Milos Raonic but also deservedly come through in four sets.

Since then he has refused to discuss the 'tear' any more, but there was nothing to suggest he was overly hindered in the Fourth Round and the feeling is that it was the shock and uncertainty which saw him limp over the line in the Third Round. Last time out Novak Djokovic was only broken once by Milos Raonic and he won a healthy amount of return points which has restored the World Number 1 and eight time Australian Open Champion to favouritism to win this tournament.

Both players have produced strong numbers in the tournament behind serve, but I have to be impressed with the Alexander Zverev returning compared with Novak Djokovic. However it would be foolish to ignore the kind of opponents each have faced and I do think the numbers would be flipped back over if these two swapped opponents.

Much depends on how Novak Djokovic is feeling- if he is close to 100% he will be leaning on the 5-2 head to head advantage he has over Alexander Zverev which becomes 4-1 when only considering their hard court meetings. One of those came in Melbourne last week as Djokovic deservedly beat Zverev in three sets at the ATP Cup where the World Number 1 faced a single break point compared with the six he created.

Their head to head numbers are heavily skewed in favour of Novak Djokovic who has held 90% of the service games played against Alexander Zverev on hard courts, while restricting his younger opponent to a 74% hold percentage in those matches. The only doubt is the injury from the Third Round, but Novak Djokovic has had some time to manage any pain he is still feeling and I think he is likely to win this one in four sets.

With the advantage Novak Djokovic has on the return of serve when these two have met on the hard courts, I think he can cover this handicap mark too on his way to yet another Semi Final at the Australian Open.

Su-Wei Hsieh-Naomi Osaka over 18.5 games: When you look at the style of the two players taking to the court you have to feel that Naomi Osaka is always going to overpower Su-Wei Hsieh and not allow the latter to even begin her bamboozling style which has earned many an upset win over the year. Su-Wei Hsieh has all of the shots, but ultimately Naomi Osaka can play first strike tennis and feel like she can take control of the match, although the aggressive approach is always a risky one if not feeling your best on the court.

The underdog has already beaten two top 20 Ranked players in this tournament, although one of those was against Bianca Andreescu who had not played in any competitive tournament since the end of 2019. Even then it was an impressive win for Su-Wei Hsieh who has only dropped a single set in her four wins so far in the tournament.

Unsurprisingly, Su-Wei Hsieh's returning numbers are the ones that catch the eye, but I have been pretty impressed with her serving for the most part too. While not as dominant as some of the big hitting players on the Tour, Hsieh has been looking after her serve to the extent that only Sara Errani has managed to earn more than six break points against her in the four matches played and that will be encouraging for the underdog.

Naomi Osaka is likely going to test that with 46% of return points won in the tournament and that despite playing opponents like Garbine Muguruza, Caroline Garcia and Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova who could all be considered solid servers. She has created at least seven break points in every match played in the tournament and she doubled that total in the win over Muguruza in the Fourth Round and now Naomi Osaka has to be feeling pretty confident with three Grand Slams won across the Australian and US Opens.

The conditions in Melbourne have felt faster than recent years and this match is being played in the middle of the day when the ball should move the quickest. That will be encouraging to Naomi Osaka who has produced some stunning service numbers at the Australian Open, although the last two opponents have had more success than the first two did.

Su-Wei Hsieh has lost four of the previous five matches against Naomi Osaka and they will be meeting each other for the first time since August 2019. However I do think it should be noted how close those previous matches have been despite Naomi Osaka getting the better of the majority of them and all three previous hard court matches have gone the distance.

The surprising numbers are how well Su-Wei Hsieh has served in those three matches and she has actually created more break points in two of those matches than Naomi Osaka has managed to create. She has won 40% of return points against the Osaka serve and Su-Wei Hsieh could make this a closer match than most anticipate if she can begin to get a read of where Naomi Osaka is targeting and drag her into some longer rallies.

Most are expecting a blow out for the Japanese player, but I think Hsieh can contribute to this match and it may go longer than most are predicting.

Serena Williams-Simona Halep over 21.5 games: There are some tremendous Quarter Final matches that are going to take place at the Australian Open over the next couple of days, but on Tuesday this Women's Quarter Final looks like the match of the day. Both Serena Williams and Simona Halep have won multiple Grand Slam titles, although the former has obviously dominated the sport to the point where she is one Slam away from matching Margaret Court's record number of Singles titles.

That has been the case since Serena Williams won the Australian Open in 2017 and while she has reached the Grand Slam Finals at Wimbledon and the US Open since then, her best run at Melbourne has been the Quarter Final in 2019. Last year she was upset in the Third Round and Serena Williams need to knuckle down and use all of her experience to beat Aryna Sabalenka in the Fourth Round over the weekend.

The experience is invaluable, but it won't be enough to see off Simona Halep who beat Serena Williams in their most recent meeting- Williams has a 9-2 head to head advantage, but it was the underdog Halep who won the Wimbledon Final when these two met in July 2019 and the former World Number 1 is someone who will play her game and try and dictate the direction the match takes rather than hoping Serena Williams is off her game.

Simona Halep also needed three sets to get through her Fourth Round match against Iga Swiatek and Halep has been serving well enough to only offer up seven break points across her last two wins. She hasn't been very good at saving them with four ending up being converted into breaks of serve, but Simona Halep also has a very effective return and she will be playing with some belief in her own game.

Returning has also been a strength for Serena Williams in this tournament with 49% of those played being won, and she will be well aware that she is going to see a lot more balls in this one compared to the last match against the big hitting Belarusian Sabalenka. That will give Williams a chance to get into attack mode and try and avoid the longer rallies which could see her wear down physically against someone like Halep.

For Simona Halep the key will be to try and get enough first serves in to prevent Williams from doing that, while she will also need to be effective against the second serves she is facing. In this tournament players have had successes attacking the Serena second serve and those two aspects for vital for the Romanian in her convincing win over Williams in the Wimbledon Final.

Serena Williams has won the last six between these two on a hard court and that includes wins at the US Open and Australian Open. However both matches have needed to go the distance and the match here in the Fourth Round two years ago was very close and could easily have ended up in a Simona Halep win on another day.

In both of those hard court Grand Slam matches, Simona Halep has served well enough to stay with Serena Williams and at this stage of her career I do think the former has a real chance. The layers feel the same with this being a pick 'em match, but regardless of the winner it would be a surprise if there aren't some twists and turns which could see the match going long in terms of the total games being played.

Even a competitive two setter could see the line covered and in the conditions and with the way both have been playing I think this will be a tight match. At the end of it all I think the Serena Williams first serve may prove to be the key to the outcome of the match, but I would not be surprised if this is another meeting between the two players that needs to go the distance to be decided in Melbourne and I will look for that to be the main outcome of the match.

MY PICKS: Grigor Dimitrov - 1.5 Sets @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Novak Djokovic - 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Su-Wei Hsieh-Naomi Osaka Over 18.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Serena Williams-Simona Halep Over 21.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open 2021: 40-37, - 3.30 Units (154 Units Staked, - 2.14% Yield)