French Open Tennis Day 2 Picks 2019 (May 27th)

The first day of any Grand Slam tournament is not going to determine how the rest of the event is going to go, but of course it does feel much better getting off to a strong start.

Eight of the ten picks that were selected on Sunday came back as winners to get the French Open Tennis Picks going in the way I would have wanted. I have a feeling that Monday could be the busiest day of the tournament for my selections though as fourteen more First Round matches have hit the criteria that has proven to be successful so far in 2019 following on from a positive 2018.

On Tuesday the remaining First Round matches will be played, although the weather expected to be in the Paris area may have been a reason there are so many scheduled to be played on Monday. I have already managed to run through the remainder of the First Round so the selections for Tuesday should be ready to be posted earlier than this one for the Day 2 Picks.

The opening day of the French Open saw the majority of the expected names moving through the draw, but the Women's Tournament lost Angelique Kerber. While it was an upset, I was not expecting a deep run from Kerber who will be looking forward to having a couple more weeks to recover from injuries that have been affecting her before the grass court season gets underway.

A number of players will be out there on Monday looking to avoid the early exit like Kerber suffered and I am also hoping to avoid the pitfalls of giving back too much after a strong opening to the tournament. Since my research of the First Round was completed there have been one or two matches that have fallen off my shortlist as the spreads have moved to numbers that I am not comfortable with, but there are plenty that remain of interest which you can see below.

Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 sets v Juan Ignacio Londero: This First Round match opens up Court 9 on Monday and Nikoloz Basilashvili is the favourite to see off Juan Ignacio Londero. The overall numbers suggest that should not be the case, but Basilashvili has been in the superior form over the last two months and I think that is going to make the difference in his favour here.

Over that time Basilasvili has reached the Quarter Final of one tournament on the clay courts and last week was a Semi Finalist in Lyon. The Georgian will feel he could have got the better of Felix Auger Aliassime in the Semi Final, but he failed to come through a second set tie-breaker although the two wins on the way to the final four will have just helped with the confidence.

Basilashvili has been holding 76% of his service games played on the clay courts and he has broken in 22% of return games played on the surface. Those numbers have proven to be very similar to 2018 and this is a player who has found himself capable of winning matches on the clay courts without necessarily dominating opponents.

However I do think Basilashvili will have enough of an edge to get the better of Juan Ignacio Londero who performed admirably during the South American Golden Swing earlier this season. Those performances saw him reach a career best World Ranking in early March, but Londero has not been able to bring his form to the European clay courts over the last couple of months.

The service numbers have just slipped a little bit in the last two months compared to earlier this season, but the bigger concern has to be the returning numbers. During that time Londero has only broken in 16% of return games and that is putting more pressure on him to hold his own serve even though he has a decent 77% hold percentage since the move to the European clay courts.

I would not be massively surprised if Londero was to take a set in this one, but Basilashvili has been playing the better tennis. The Argentinian is just 1-4 against top 100 Ranked players on the clay courts since April and his numbers have taken a big decline in that time. With that in mind I am expecting Nikoloz Basilashvili to win this one in three or four sets as he makes his way through to the Second Round.

Borna Coric - 6.5 games v Aljaz Bedene: One of the players that could be a dark horse in the men's draw at the French Open is Borna Coric and he gets to open his campaign on Monday. The draw has paired him with Aljaz Bedene and Coric will have to be careful with this match up and make sure he is close to his best to make his way through to the Second Round.

In recent years Bedene has been someone who is capable of playing some of his better tennis on the clay courts, but 2019 has proven to be a difficult time for him. He didn't play badly during the South American Golden Swing, but the last couple of months have been more difficult for a player who is not Ranked high enough to be given a spot in either of the Masters events that were played on the clay courts of Madrid and Rome.

Aljaz Bedene remains someone who can cause problems with his return of serve, but he is just 1-3 on the clay courts since early April. The main point of concern for Bedene has to be the serve having held just 65% of the service games played on the clay courts since April compared with a 75% mark during the South American portion of the Tour.

That decline in numbers has been hard to make up by the fact that Bedene is breaking in 24% of return games since April compared with the 33% number he had produced earlier in the year. Now Bedene has to play against Borna Coric who looks to be playing at a significantly higher level and pushed some quality players like Fabio Fognini and Roger Federer.

Coric did lose both of those matches, but he could have easily got the better of them with a little more luck at key times. His 82% service hold number on the clay courts look like it will give him a serious edge in this match, while the Croatian is breaking in 24% of the return games played.

This match certainly feels like one in which Coric can earn a couple of breaks of serve within a set on at least one and perhaps two different times in this match. It should give Coric a chance of being in a position to cover this handicap mark during the course of this best of five set match, although Bedene will have his moments and will need to be respected.

Astra Sharma - 2.5 games v Shelby Rogers: One of the improving players on the Tour looks to take another step in her career when Astra Sharma looks for her second Grand Slam win. Back in January Sharma reached the Second Round of the Australian Open in her home Grand Slam and the run to the Final in the Mixed Doubles will have given her some confidence.

Even coming up short in that Final has not been a setback for Sharma who has moved inside the top 100 of the World Rankings for the first time at the end of April. A good run at the French Open will give Sharma a chance to enter the upcoming Grand Slams without having to be forced into the Qualifiers and the performances on the clay courts suggest she can get the better of Shelby Rogers who is on the road back from a long-term injury.

Astra Sharma reached the Final of the tournament in Bogota and she has won plenty of matches on the clay courts in 2019. It can't be ignored that Sharma has mainly taken advantage of kind draws to produce the wins she has and there is room for improvement, but the draw here at the French Open has not been a bad one to open up for the Aussie either.

As I have mentioned, Shelby Rogers is recovering from a long-term injury and that has seen her just struggle for consistency within matches. You have to respect the fact that Rogers has pushed Jelena Ostapenko, a former French Open Champion, and Caroline Garcia on the clay courts over the last two months, but there is also a defeat to Sharma on this surface that should give the favourite an edge.

On that day in Bogota, Sharma was much more comfortable behind her serve and that could be the case again with the likelihood of the conditions allowing the higher Ranked player to get enough balls in play to frustrate Rogers. The latter did take a set off of Sharma in her defeat in April, but she has not really played at the kind of level to think this one is going to be much different.

In this First Round match the player who can have the most success in winning points behind the second serve is going to have the edge to go through. So far on the clay courts it has felt like Sharma is playing well enough to edge out Rogers and the win over her should aid her mentally as she moves through to the Second Round with a cover of the spread.

Danielle Collins - 4.5 games v Tatjana Maria: I am not sure the French Open crowd are really going to get behind Danielle Collins who can be an abrasive personality on a tennis court. That could be an issue for someone who wears their heart on their sleeve and who wants to challenge opponents, but I am not anticipating Collins to have too many concerns on the court in this First Round match.

Some may not like the way Collins carries herself and the kind of confidence she has in herself, but I am a fan. A strong run at the Australian Open announced Collins to a lot of tennis fans out there, but it does feel like the clay courts are going to be the weakest surface for her.

The results have borne that out somewhat and she has had to deal with a couple of really disappointing results on the surface. However recent losses to Ashleigh Barty and Garbine Muguruza could have gone Collins way with a little more luck at critical times and I do think this is a player in superior form to her opponent Tatjana Maria.

The German has had a couple of tough years on the clay courts and Maria's struggles on the second serve as well as the return of serve have really let her down. Those declining numbers are a factor in Maria producing a 1-5 run on the clay courts heading into the French Open and the real disappointment will be that four of those five defeats have come to players Ranked 61 or lower.

It is Collins who has the superior serving numbers and she has also shown a stronger ability on the return of serve while also playing higher Ranked opponents than what Maria has tended to deal with. The spread is still one you have to respect as it could need as many as three or four breaks of serve for Collins to cover it, but I think it is possible.

The American has been winning at least 45% of return points played on the clay courts despite her 5-4 record and she should have some real joy against the Maria serve. When these players met in Sydney on the hard courts earlier this season Collins earned eight break points in a straight sets win and I think she will be able to create a similar number here which should give her every chance of covering the handicap.

Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: In the last couple of weeks Dayana Yastremska has just turned 19 years old, but she has long been touted as one of the players that could be a leading light on the WTA Tour. After winning the title in Strasbourg last week, the Ukrainian will be heading into the French Open hoping to match the run to the Third Round she put together at the Australian Open.

Before winning five matches to take the title home in Strasbourg, Yastremska had lost all three matches played on the clay courts. While on most occasions that would put me off in selecting her as a short favourite, Yastremska was very competitive in defeats to Kristina Mladenovic, Karolina Pliskova and First Round opponent Carla Suarez Navarro.

When these two players met in Rome, Yastremska came up short against Suarez Navarro despite winning more points in the match. There was very little between them and the run of wins put together by the younger player could easily see things switched around.

Carla Suarez Navarro is going to be dangerous having always been a solid clay court performer, but there are signs of decline that can't be ignored. She is still very capable of putting a strong performance together, but Suarez Navarro is not returning as well as she once did on the surface.

That could be a problem against a talented performer like Yastremska who has won 44% of return points against Suarez Navarro in both of their meetings in 2019. The match at the Australian Open was won by Yastremska and in both matches played between these two opponents the young Ukrainian has won at least one set with a 6-1 scoreline.

Playing the week before a Slam can be tough work for players, especially if they win the title as Yastremska did. She has had a day to rest between travelling from Strasbourg to Paris, and I think at the age she is I would expect Yastremska to have recovered about as well as you can.

Momentum could be important after putting the run together in Strasbourg and I will look for Yastremska to beat the veteran Spaniard and cover this number of games.

Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 games v Marie Bouzkova: I am backing one 19 year old to have a successful First Round match and I am also prepared to back an 18 year old who is soon turning 19 herself. Bianca Andreescu has already raised her profile on the Tour by winning a Premier Event in Indian Wells this season as she has moved up to Number 22 in the World Rankings.

That Ranking may have been even more impressive if not for an injury suffered in Miami which has basically kept Andreescu out of the clay court season. The Canadian has made it clear she is ready to compete having decided to practice at Rafael Nadal's Academy in Mallorca rather than take in a tournament while recovering.

It does raise some questions as to how Andreescu will be feeling going into her first competitive match on the clay courts. Last season she failed to actually Qualify for the French Open having been beaten in the Third Qualifying Round, but I think the confidence earned earlier this season will see Andreescu produce some of her better tennis.

She has a chance to get her teeth into the tournament when taking on a Lucky Loser in the First Round. Maria Bouzkova has played three matches in Paris which may aid her, but the Czech player has not really produced a lot of top performances on this surface in the last couple of years.

Back in January Andreescu destroyed Bouzkova on a hard court in a match where she dropped just three games. The lack of tennis is a concern when backing Andreescu here, but she is someone who should be able to have enough success on the return to break down the Bouzkova game.

It should be enough for Andreescu to find a way to win this match and cover the handicap as she begins to turn the screw in the second set once the initial match rustiness wears off.

Serena Williams - 5.5 games v Vitalia Diatchenko: This is a quick hit to explain why I am backing Serena Williams despite the photos that surfaced of her time at Disneyland Paris earlier this week.

On that day the American was pictured in a wheelchair, but it sounds like it was more of a precaution rather than anything much more serious than that. There is no doubt that Williams is suffering with a leg injury considering how many tournaments she had to pull out from in 2019, but she looked ok hitting the ball in practice in the last couple of days.

If Serena Williams takes to the court I think she will be ready to go and she did beat Rebecca Peterson by enough games to cover this spread in her only clay court match so far in 2019. Now she plays Vitalia Diatchenko who has not been performing that well on the surface and whose last three French Open's have seen her crushed without winning more than five games in any of the matches in which she was defeated.

When fit Serena Williams is still very difficult to beat and I think she will be able to pull away in this First Round match as she looks to move through to the Second Round as quickly as possible.

MY PICKS: Nikoloz Basilashvili - 1.5 Sets @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Borna Coric - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Astra Sharma - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Danielle Collins - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Dayana Yastremska - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Bianca Andreescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Serena Williams - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Mihaela Buzarnescu - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Joao Sousa @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Corentin Moutet - 1.5 Sets @ 2.20 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)

Jaume Munar - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)

Tennys Sandgren + 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Pablo Cuevas - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Jan-Lennard Struff - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

French Open Update: 8-2, + 10.12 Units (20 Units Staked, + 50.60% Yield)

French Open Tennis Day 1 Picks 2019 (May 26th)

The second Grand Slam of the 2019 season is unique in that it begins on a Sunday and the First Round is played across three days rather than the traditional two used by the other three Slams. The French Open concludes the clay court season for most players on the main Tour, although there are gong to be plenty of clay court events for players to get into between Wimbledon and the hard court season beginning as well as for those on the Challenger Tour.

Nick Kyrgios may not be a fan, but I have always enjoyed the French Open and I am looking forward to revisiting to see the revamped grounds.

The new settings look very nice from the pictures we are getting from those already at Roland Garros, but some things have yet to change with Rafael Nadal going into the tournament as a strong favourite having finally won a title on the red dirt in Rome seven days ago.

His comfortable win over Novak Djokovic makes Nadal the man to beat in Paris yet again and I would not dissuade anyone who wants to back him to win the title in two weeks time. However it is hard to ignore the fact that Nadal's level has not been nearly as good as what he has been able to produce in the last couple of years and players like Dominic Thiem and Fabio Fognini have shown Nadal is beatable over the last couple of months.

However the Spaniard could not have asked for a much better draw and the majority of his main rivals are in the top half of the draw. It could mean Nadal is in a very good position to pick off whoever he meets in the Final in two weeks time and I'll say again that I really can't see anything but more of the same in Paris as Nadal wins yet another title here.


We will see Roger Federer back in Paris for the first time since he reached the Quarter Final in 2015. He has looked pretty comfortable on the clay courts considering the time Federer has spent away from this surface, but a slight injury issue is a concern. Roger Federer could be the person to oppose in his section of the draw, but the layers have also cottoned onto that fact judging by the prices on players to come out of the Third Quarter of the draw.

Novak Djokovic will be there or thereabouts, but the heavy loss to Rafael Nadal in the Rome Final makes it hard to believe he is going to hold all four Grand Slams at the same time for the second time in his career. I still think he is most likely to be opposing Nadal in two weeks time, but there are plenty of threats in the top half and his path looks much more difficult than the World Number 2's path through the draw.


Once again the women's event looks wide open in Paris and there are a number of players you could make a serious case for. The situation is a little more clouded because there are a host of leading names who are dealing with injuries including Serena Williams who is still searching for her 24th Grand Slam title to tie Margaret Court's record.

I still think the best we are going to see from Petra Kvitova will be at Wimbledon and the US Open, while Karolina Pliskova's results are better than her numbers and I think that may balance out.

My leans have to be with defending Champion Simona Halep and Kiki Bertens, but I can make a case to oppose both too. In such a wide open market I do think it makes most sense to avoid any outright selections here and I would not be massively surprised if at least one of the Finalists is a name that comes through the draw at a big price.


One piece of news that grabbed my attention early on Friday which seems to be growing as the day wore on was the Katie Boulter decision to withdraw from the French Open. It was a massive surprise when she was actually in the draw considering she has an injury which had ruled her out of the clay court season three weeks ago, but of course signing in and then withdrawing means she was entitled to £20,000 in terms of prize money from the event.

If you are unaware, last year a decision was made that those who entered a tournament but had to withdraw with an injury or an illness could receive half the amount they would have received for completing a First Round match at a Grand Slam. The decision was made to stop players who know they can't last a full match from taking to the court and then withdrawing which was the only way they could earn the prize money.

Splitting the prize money with a 'Lucky Loser' seemed a much better policy to ensure spectators were not short-changed too, but the Boulter situation has seen her come off in poor light.

It has grown as a story because of Boulter's insistence in saying that she thought she could compete in the tournament and that is why she entered her name into the draw. Everyone who follows tennis knows there was no way she could have actually played, but instead she has made the short trip to Paris to sign in and get signed out onsite to earn half the prize money as mentioned.

I tweeted on Friday I can understand the players feeling they are entitled to the money, but that it didn't feel right to me and I stand by that. To the average person this is going to look like a greedy decision and it does make a mockery of the rules when there is absolutely NO intention to play, which is most certainly the case here.

At the worst Boulter's image would have taken a PR knock, but I am not sure how the rules can be changed to protect the integrity of the sport. It's not a good look for the player as it stands though and I think Boulter is going to need to really repair what is fast becoming a damaging story for her.


The Tennis Picks have been in good shape for 2019, but last week was a disappointing one. I have updated the season total below.

With the huge amounts of early Round matches to get through, my plan is to write down a few thoughts for some of those and then add the remaining selections for the day in the 'MY PICKS' section below. Hopefully Sunday and Day 1 of the French Open is the beginning of a really strong tournament to add to the numbers for the season before the Tour shifts to the grass court season and the run up to Wimbledon 2019.


Roger Federer - 6.5 games v Lorenzo Sonego: The French Open is unique amongst the four Grand Slams in that it begins on a Sunday and the First Round is played across three rather than the usual two days. With that in mind the organisers were always going to put a couple of the standout matches and the big names out on the courts on Sunday and it is Roger Federer's return to Roland Garros that will have the fans most excited.

In recent years Federer has decided it was best for his durability on the Tour that he skips the clay court season, but he has been back out there battling in 2019. The results have been pretty decent, but Federer may feel he could have achieved more if not for an injury that saw him pull out of the Rome Masters and with better draws considering four of his five clay court matches have come against top 50 Ranked players.

Unsurprisingly that won't be the case when Federer begins his French Open tournament as he looks to win a second title here ten years after completing the career Grand Slam in Paris. However Federer is facing an improving player in Lorenzo Sonego who is very comfortable on the clay courts and who reached the Quarter Final of the Monte Carlo Masters.

The Italian's serve has been a big weapon for him on the clay as he has held 84% of the games played behind the serve in 2019. It is the returning numbers that have taken a serious dent when you only consider the Sonego performances in main ATP Tour matches, but the serve has remained pretty consistent in his eight matches against top 50 Ranked opponents even though Sonego has lost the last four of those.

Sonego's last three losses have been close defeats in that situation which suggests he can give Federer something to think about here. However I am not expecting Sonego to have a lot of success against the Federer serve which is being held in 87% of service games played on the clay in 2019.

I think it could take Federer a bit of time to get to grips with the Sonego game, but he should be good enough to break down the Italian over the course of a best of five set match. While the Sonego serve could keep him competitive, four of the last five top 50 Ranked players he has faced on the clay courts have created seven or more break points and I would expect Federer to turn the screw once he moves in front.

In recent years Federer has made a very strong start to Grand Slam tournaments and he has covered this line in ten of his last twelve completed First Round matches at this level. Lorenzo Sonego should be competitive, but it is a big challenge in front of him facing the aura of Roger Federer in only his second match against someone in the top 10 of the World Rankings.


Marin Cilic - 7.5 games v Thomas Fabbiano: It has been a really tough 2019 for Marin Cilic whose numbers are down across the board and that has seen him struggle to make an impact in any tournament he has entered. The Croatian has reached just one Quarter Final this year, although that did come in a clay court event played at the Madrid Masters earlier this month.

Food poisoning prevented Cilic from taking part in the Quarter Final on that occasion, but another relatively poor showing in the Rome Masters means there won't be a rush to back Cilic in being in the business end of the French Open.

The serve has been a real issue for Cilic which is a surprise considering that is usually a strong part of his game. His numbers on the clay courts are significantly down behind the serve compared to the last couple of years as his hold percentage has dropped from a high 80% range to 73% in 2019. If it wasn't for some decent returning numbers Cilic's performances might have been even worse than what he has produced.

It does make it difficult to believe in him, but I do think Cilic has a decent First Round match to open the tournament.

Thomas Fabbiano has not really produced his best tennis on the clay courts and that could be a slight surprise considering the Italian would have likely grown up on that surface. Fabbiano has found it very difficult to look after his serve on the surface and he has consistently been below the 69% hold mark since the 2016 season.

In previous years the Italian has been able to rely on a strong return game, but he is breaking in just 18% of return games in 2019. That makes it much tougher on his own service game and is a big reason Fabbiano is just 1-4 on the clay courts this season.

Fabbiano is just 1-8 in his clay court matches against top 50 Ranked opponents in his career and breaks in just 15.5% of return games played against those opponents. In this match I think the Cilic return game is going to be one that puts Fabbiano under immense pressure and he might get out of a few more service games if the Italian continues to struggle on the return as he has when he faces the better players on the Tour.

There is no doubt this is a big number and Cilic could be someone to oppose sooner rather than later, but in this First Round match I think he will be able to come through at least one set with a couple of breaks of serve more than Fabbiano. That should set Cilic up for the cover and I will back him to do that.


Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 games v Janko Tipsarevic: When Grigor Dimitrov won the ATP Finals at the end of the 2017 season most thought it was finally going to be the time when the Bulgarian kicks on and challenges for Grand Slam titles. The last eighteen months have been much tougher than expected for Dimitrov who has slipped down to Number 47 in the World Rankings and has made more changes to his coaching staff.

There is definitely some sort of mental block in play at the moment for Dimitrov who has been playing some decent tennis during the clay court season, but who has had lapses within matches to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.

Both the service and return numbers have actually improved from his clay court performances twelve months ago. In 2019 Dimitrov has held 80% of his service games played on the clay and broken in 24% of return games, but it is difficult in backing a player who has struggled at key times within matches.

However Dimitrov looks to have a decent start to the French Open when he takes on Janko Tipsarevic who is making his way back from another injury lay off. The Serb was a very good player in his day, but Tipsarevic's peak Ranking came in April 2012 and in recent years he has struggled to put a full year together on the Tour.

So far Tipsarevic has been returning well enough to believe he can cause problems for Dimitrov, a player he took to four sets at the Australian Open back in January. On that day Dimitrov was clearly the superior player though and I still think he is playing well enough to see off Tipsarevic in the First Round here at the second Grand Slam of the season.

I would expect Dimitrov to have success returning serve against Tipsarevic who has held 76% of service games in 2019 on the clay courts, but that has come against players that have not been Ranked in the top 50. The step up is one that could be difficult for the Serb to make at this stage of his return to the Tour and I would expect Dimitrov to create the majority of break points and he can pull away from Tipsarevic as he did at the Australian Open.

Throughout his career Tipsarevic has had a tough time facing players Ranked in the top 50 on the clay courts. His numbers have backed that up and I think Dimitrov can come through what looks a more difficult match on paper than it may prove to be in reality.


Matteo Berrettini - 6.5 games v Pablo Andujar: Twelve months ago the Italian making waves at the French Open was Marco Cecchinato, but this time around it may be Matteo Berrettini who is looking to make a big impact at this level. The last twelve months has seen Berrettini come on leaps and bounds on the clay courts and I do think he is someone who could cause one or two problems for even the very best out there.

In the last twelve months Berrettini has produced a 21-6 record on the clay courts which includes his 11-3 record in 2019. All of those matches have been played on the main ATP Tour and Berrettini has won a couple of titles in that time, while all but a handful of those matches have come against top 100 Ranked opponents which underlines the improvements Berrettini has made.

The serve has been a huge weapon for Berrettini who has held 86% of his service games on the clay courts over the last twelve months. Those numbers have stayed steady throughout 2019, but the real improvement looks to have been made on the return of serve as the Italian has broken in one of four return games played on this surface during this season.

Matteo Berrettini is going to need to be at his best from the off in this one as he faces Pablo Andujar who has always played his best tennis on the clay courts. Pablo Andujar has some strong numbers on the clay courts over the last couple of years and that includes a 16-4 record on the surface in 2019, although it can't be forgotten that the majority of the matches have been played at Challenger level rather than on the main ATP Tour.

The Spaniard did reach the Final in Marrakech back in April, but his three losses on the main Tour have come by comfortable margins. Andujar has not won more than five games in the three losses suffered at the main ATP level on the clay courts and his service numbers have dipped from a 75% hold down to a 71% hold number.

The biggest impact has been on the return of serve as Andujar has broken in 22% of service games in main ATP Tour matches on the surface compared with his overall number of 34% in 2019. It highlights the level of opponents on which Andujar's record has been built and I do think he is going to find it tough to compete with Berrettini over a best of five set format if the latter is at his best.

I can't deny this is a pretty big number on the handicap, but I think Berrettini is capable of covering it. I would imagine Berrettini's strong serving will keep the pressure on Andujar who can't rely on protecting his serve as well as the Italian can. At some point I would expect Berrettini to win a set with a couple of breaks of serve more than Andujar and I think that will give him every chance of winning this match while covering this number.


Albert Ramos-Vinolas v Laslo Djere: It is only a couple of years since Albert Ramos-Vinolas reached the Quarter Final at the French Open, but his performances have been declining since then and he has slipped to the edge of the top 100 in the World Rankings. He is the underdog in this First Round match against the improving Laslo Djere who is close to becoming a Seed for future Grand Slam events and who has played some of his best tennis on the clay courts.

In each of the last five seasons Djere has been improving his numbers on the clay courts and in 2019 he has won a big title in Rio de Janeiro on the surface. It has to be a big reason he is favoured to win this First Round match, but I think Djere could be upset here.

During the year Djere has held 81% of the service games played on the clay courts and he has broken in 23% of return games. However I think those numbers have been inflated by the strong showings Djere had on the clay courts of South America during the Golden Swing following the Australian Open earlier this year.

Since the shift to the European clay courts Djere has seen his hold percentage drop down to 80, but the significant decline has been on the return impact. So while the hold percentage dropped from 83% during the Golden Swing portion of the season to 80% over the last two months, Djere's return numbers have swung from 30% of breaks in return games down to 18% and I think that makes him vulnerable in this First Round match.

Albert Ramos-Vinolas has been much more consistent across the course of 2019 on the surface, but his slight improvement on the return side of the game over the last two months has been crucial for him. It would have been nicer to back a player who had perhaps won more matches than Ramos-Vinolas has been able to do, but he looks to be playing at a better level than Djere going into this tournament.

That makes him appealing as the underdog especially as Djere is also trying to make his first impact at a Grand Slam. The Serbian is 1-6 in Grand Slam matches in his career and has lost both previous matches at the French Open. With the experience Ramos-Vinolas has at this event and the recent performances of the two players, I am going to back the veteran Spaniard to upset Djere as the underdog even if Ramos-Vinolas' best days are now behind him.

Remember there are some layers who are offering to payout if your player goes 2-0 up in sets in the men's singles event at the French Open. You can get a decent price from Bet365 for this selection with that policy in play and that is why I am recommending them here.


Alison Van Uytvanck - 2.5 games v Sara Sorribes Tormo: This is one of the matches being played on the outer courts on the opening day of the French Open, but it piqued my interest. I had Alison Van Uytvanck down as a healthy favourite to beat Sara Sorribes Tormo, but the layers are making this a closer match than that.

In terms of the games market, I would have expected Van Uytvanck to be asked to cover at least one more game than the spread which has been laid out. I am not suggesting she is a top quality clay court player, but Van Uytvanck is capable of performing on this surface and generally operates at a higher level than her opponent.

Losses to Belinda Bencic and Maria Sakkari on the clay courts are not ones to be overly concerned about. There has also been a real improvement in the return numbers being produced by the Belgian and I think that is going to be put some serious pressure on Sorribes Tormo.

Of course the Spaniard is going to be very comfortable on the clay courts and the majority of her wins do come on this surface. However it should be noted that Sorribes Tormo has made hay when playing against players that are not Ranked inside the top 100 and her career record of 10-30 against those players on the clay courts has to be a real concern.

In 2019 Sorribes Tormo has pushed Naomi Osaka and Sloane Stephens on the clay which is very respectable, but she has also suffered comfortable losses to Andrea Petkovic and Ons Jabeur. The Spaniard has also failed to win a main draw match at the French Open with this being the third attempt to do so, and I do believe Van Uytvanck is playing with enough quality to beat her here.

It could take three sets to do that, but even then I do think the Belgian can cover the number on the level she is able to reach and I will back her to do that here.

MY PICKS: Roger Federer - 6.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Marin Cilic - 7.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Matteo Berrettini - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas @ 2.20 Bet365 (2 Units)
Alison Van Uytvanck - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Kei Nishikori - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics-Diego Sebastian Schwartzman Over 35.5 Games @ 1.85 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Season 2019: + 65.06 Units (737 Units Staked, + 8.83% Yield)

NBA Conference Finals Picks 2019 (May 23-27)

NBA PlayOffs 2019- Conference Finals Picks Game 5-7 (May 23-27)

The Western Conference Finals saw the Golden State Warriors recover from huge deficits on three straight occasions to sweep the Portland Trail Blazers out of the post-season. That has given them plenty of time to rest while the Milwaukee Bucks and Toronto Raptors are forced to play at least two more games before the NBA Finals begin at the end of the month.

It is an important time for the Warriors as they hope that time will allow Kevin Durant and DeMarcus Cousins to both return to the rotation having missed the last six games for the team. They haven't been missed as much as you might have expected considering the Warriors have won all of those games, although I would expect the NBA Finals to be a much tougher proposition than what the Trail Blazers were able to produce against Golden State.

Even the Warriors have admitted they are going to need at least Durant and maybe even Cousins if they are going to win the NBA Championship for a third year in a row and for the fourth time in five seasons. It will take a brave person to bet against them doing that, although my feeling is that the Milwaukee Bucks will pose a lot more questions than the Toronto Raptors.

However right now the Eastern Conference Finals are finely balance at 2-2 with both teams having won a dominant game and perhaps a shaky one at home to hold serve. A best of three should favour the Bucks who host two of those games, but the Raptors have momentum and Game 5 is going to be huge.

Thursday 23rd May

Toronto Raptors @ Milwaukee Bucks Game 5 Pick: Throughout this season the Milwaukee Bucks have responded to setbacks by bouncing back and setting the record straight in their next game. It was a big reason they went into Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals as the favourite having dropped Game 3 to the Toronto Raptors as the underdog, but it was Toronto who came out on top to level the Series at 2-2.

Game 5 moves back to Milwaukee and there is no doubting the importance of this one in what has become a best of three game Series. The Bucks need to stem the momentum the Raptors have been able to build up after winning Game 3 in Double Overtime and then crushing Milwaukee in Game 4 which was never really competitive.

It is now up to the Bucks to make the adjustments they need as they have not really been able to show off the depth that many thought gave them an edge in this match up with Toronto. While the Raptors might not have the same amounts of rotations to keep key players on decent minutes, their role players have stepped up massively in the last couple of games and it is their performances which have led to a tied Series.

Kawhi Leonard may be one of the best players in the NBA, but he was held to 19 points in Game 4 and yet the Raptors were still able to dominate throughout. Leonard is still looking a little gimpy having suffered an injury in Game 3, while Kyle Lowry is also dealing with an undisclosed issue but both are going to suit up and give all they can to help the Raptors reach a first ever NBA Finals.

While Leonard and Lowry have done enough to open things up for the rest of the team, Pascal Siakam continues to have his own struggles. Fortunately others have been in fine form and now it is up to the likes of Giannis Antetokounmpo to return to the kind of level that makes him a leading contender for regular season MVP.

Antetokounmpo will not be heckled by Canadian idiot, I mean rapper, Drake in Game 5, but he can't use that as an excuse for two average performances in Toronto. He will need Khris Middleton to step up with him, while Eric Bledsoe's post-season struggles have stretched on and his lack of Offensive productivity is hurting the strong Defensive effort he is trying to produce for the team.

Milwaukee should be much more comfortable in home surroundings having covered in their last four here. They are also 6-0 against the spread when playing off a double digit defeat and the Bucks are 21-5 against the spread when playing off a loss.

They have only once lost back to back games in the 2018/19 season and they crushed the Indiana Pacers by 19 points as a double digit favourite at home after those consecutive losses. The home team has covered in all four Eastern Conference Finals Games and Toronto are 1-4 against the spread in their last five road PlayOff Games.

I have yet to really lose faith in Milwaukee as they could have easily won Game 3. The Game 4 performance was perhaps the worst they have produced in the post-season, but Milwaukee have shown they can bounce back from defeats and this team will be much better being back at home.

The public money looks to be going down on the Raptors, but Milwaukee will be looking to improve a recent trend that has developed in the NBA PlayOffs. Home teams at 2-2 have improved to 6-2 against the spread in Game 5 of the PlayOffs since the beginning of the 2018 NBA PlayOffs and I think the Bucks are a team who can rally from their losses and show the NBA they are still the team to beat in the Eastern Conference.


Saturday 25th May
Milwaukee Bucks @ Toronto Raptors Game 6 Pick: The Golden State Warriors have already been enjoying a few days off to recover from their post-season exploits to reach the NBA Finals, but they could learn their opponent for the Championship as soon as Saturday night. The Toronto Raptors have overcome some big odds to beat the Milwaukee Bucks for a third time in a row to take a 3-2 lead in the Eastern Conference Finals and one more win in front of their own fans will see them through to a first ever NBA Finals appearance.

It is a stunning turnaround in this Series after the Bucks won the first two games. They had only suffered back to back defeats once in the regular season and this is the first time Milwaukee have lost three in a row all year which makes the Toronto recovery all the more remarkable.

In Game 5 the Raptors rallied from big deficits on a couple of occasions to weather the Milwaukee storm and take a lead in the Series. It is making the Game 3 win in Double Overtime looking all the more key for Toronto who have earned some momentum from the manner of their win and continue to roll with it.

Milwaukee have not lost faith in their own ability, but Giannis Antetokounmpo is struggling at the Free Throw line at the wrong time as his team-mates have not stepped up to the plate. One of the big factors in the last three games is the deteriorating number of three point shots being taken by the Bucks as Milwaukee have continued to struggle to shoot the ball from downtown while their overall success from the field has been well down on their season numbers.

Energy on the Defensive side of the court has bled into the Toronto Offense too as Kawhi Leonard continues to dominate the Series. He bounced back from a tough Game 4 to score 35 points in Game 5 to lead the Raptors, but it has been the contribution of the role players that has really caught the eye and put Toronto in a position to finish the Finals.

I would be stunned if Milwaukee were to lose for a fourth game in a row, but they are not really a team I can back with any confidence after the way the last three games have gone. If they were to win Game 6 I would make the Bucks strong favourites to win the Series, but there is a lot of pressure on them and the layers have placed a spread that is impossible for me to judge.

If Milwaukee are going to win here, they need to do better from the field whether that is attacking the paint and getting to the Free Throw line or someone stepping up and getting hot from the three point line. The Raptors have shown they have players who can put the three ball together and they have scored plenty of points in this Series, but I do think Milwaukee are going to respond before it is too late.

After a lower than expected scoring Game 5 I am not surprised that so many have been quick to back the 'under' in this one. However the last eight between Toronto and Milwaukee in Canada have seen six of them finish with an 'over' and I think the Bucks are better than they have shown Offensively to think they can contribute to a high-scoring Game 6.

The 'over' is also 8-1 in the Milwaukee's last nine road games, while it is 14-3 when the Bucks are playing a team with a winning record at home. The 'over' has also been the play in Toronto games when facing a team with a winning record of at least 60% as that side of the market has improved to 4-1 in their last five at home.

The emotion is going to be high in this building on Saturday night, but I can see both teams looking to provide a heavy dose of three point shooting which can lead to Game 6 surpassing the number set.

MY PICKS: 23/05 Milwaukee Bucks - 6.5 Points @ 1.83 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
25/05 Toronto Raptors-Milwaukee Bucks Over 212 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

NBA Conference Finals: 4-5, - 1.36 Units (9 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)

Second Round: 12-11, - 0.04 Units (23 Units Staked, - 0% Yield)

First Round: 23-17, + 4.02 Units (40 Units Staked, + 10.05% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (May 22nd)

The Tennis continues in the lead up to the French Open which begins on Sunday, but the tournaments being played this week will be hoping the weather settles down to ensure they are finished on Saturday as scheduled.

I've placed the Second Round Picks being played on Wednesday in this thread.

This should be the last time I am not able to write out any analysis for the Tennis Picks between now and the end of the French Open. Things have been a little hectic to prevent that happening over the last couple of weeks, but that should be cleared up going forward.

MY PICKS: Roberto Bautista Agut - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Nikoloz Basilashvili - 4.5 Games @ 2.05 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Marton Fucsovics @ 1.83 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Christian Garin - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-2, - 1.80 Units (6 Units Staked, - 30% Yield)

Tennis Picks 2019 (May 21st)

I was hoping a few things would have been cleared up in my personal life that would have given me the time to write out fuller Tennis Pick threads over the last week.

However that is yet to be the case and I am expecting a couple more shortened threads this week, but all should be back in line by the time we get round to the start of the French Open on Sunday.

I will update the season totals in the Wednesday Tennis Picks thread, while the tournaments being played this week have to be hoping the rain disappears having seen Monday badly affected. The two WTA events look to have another wet day in front of them, but the two ATP tournaments should be back on track after today.

With days to go before the second Grand Slam of the season begins it is much harder to expect players to want to dig deep and invest a lot of energy playing twice in the same day as they would have done at the Rome Masters. That means selections may not be so easy to make in those spots and it could mean this week is ended earlier for the Tennis Picks as I begin to concentrate on the French Open instead.


MY PICKS: Albert Ramos-Vinolas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Leonardo Mayer @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Grigor Dimitrov - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Ashleigh Barty - 5.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Monica Puig - 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Boxing Picks 2019- Deontay Wilder vs Dominic Breazeale (May 18th)

The last weekend might not have offered the kind of Boxing that had the casuals engrossed, but whenever two belts are being defended in a Division like the Light-Middleweight one you have got to stand up and take notice.

Jarrett Hurd might have been the big favourite, but Julian Williams deserved his win in what has to be the best fight I have watched in 2019. Neither man took a backwards step, but Williams showed he has learned plenty from his sole loss to Jermall Charlo and he deserves to be set amongst the very best in the Division.

A rematch has to be next on the agenda for both, although it may depend on what happens in the already scheduled rematch between Tony Harrison and Jermell Charlo coming up next month. If Charlo wins there is every chance we get to see a third fight between those two, although there is an easy story to put together if a Unification with Williams is made having seen twin brother already beat J-Rock.

Emanuel Navarrette and Miguel Bercholt both made good on their first wins over Isaac Dogboe and Francisco Vargas by stopping those opponents faster than they did in the initial bouts. Both are moving on looking for big names in and around their Divisions, while Dogboe's bubble may have burst even at 24 years old.

He is talking about moving up a Division, but Dogboe is blessed with a big heart and not the same stature and that makes it hard to see how he is really competitive when moving up weights.

This Saturday we have some decent looking fights on paper and one exceptional one in Glasgow.

I am very high on Josh Taylor so am looking forward to seeing if he can become a World Champion in the World Boxing Super Series Semi Final against Ivan Baranchyk which takes place in Scotland. On the same night Billy Joe Saunders is hoping to pick up the WBO Super Middleweight Title which has been left vacant since Gilberto Ramirez made it clear he is moving to Light Heavyweight.

Later on is the WBC Heavyweight Title fight between Deontay Wilder and Dominic Breazeale- I've had my say on the farcical nature of the top of the Heavyweight Division after what has been a solid eighteen months to reinvigorate interest up to the Wilder vs Tyson Fury fight last December. As I have said before, I am not sure any of the top three will be facing each other in 2019 and to be fair to Wilder this may be the best of the fights the three have lined up over the next month.

Last week the Boxing Picks went 1-2, but once again a slight profit can be added to the numbers which continue to be turned around after a poor start to 2019. Not for the first time I was one more second from a winner as a fighter was retired in the corner between Rounds, but I do think I  am on the right road.

One Pick was pretty shoddy and very quickly looked to be the wrong choice so I am not going to complain about that one at all.

Joe Joyce vs Alexander Ustinov

There hasn't been a lot of exciting news from the very top of the Heavyweight Division, but there are a number of UK fighters who are trying to position themselves into a spot where they could be tasked with fighting one of the top three names out there.

One of those who has seemingly spoken about being in a rush to get to the top is Joe Joyce who was late to the professional game after having a decent amateur career. At 32 years old time is not on the side of Joyce who wants to fight for big titles, while I have to say I am not sold on him at all as being capable of challenging the best in this Division.

And not for the first time Joyce seems to be someone that promoters are struggling to know what to do with. Now he has aligned with Frank Warren and it sounds like he is hoping to go the WBA route by picking up their Regular Title and then perhaps facing Anthony Joshua for the 'Super Champion' Belt.

The fact he keeps moving promoters and trainers is a concern, but Joyce has continued winning and that means he is in a good position to at least give himself a shot at winning a World Title. I can't see him beating those top guys as I have said, but I think he will be matched up well and that begins with this fight against Alexander Ustinov.

A couple of fights ago Ustinov fought for what was then the vacant WBA Regular Title, but he was beaten by Manual Charr and was dropped in that fight. His last outing saw the 42 year old battered for nine Rounds before Michael Hunter was able to force the stoppage and I think the fact that Joyce is basically the same size means Ustinov is going to take more of a beating in this one than he did against Hunter.

Joe Joyce doesn't have the speed of Hunter, but this shouldn't be anything more than a showcase fight for the Brit who is out for a second time in 2019. He is expected back out in July on the big Daniel Dubois vs Nathan Gormon card that Frank Warren is putting together so Joyce won't want to be overly taxed in this one.

He doesn't hit as hard as his eight Knock Outs from eight fights may suggest, but I don't think Ustinov will be hard to find. It took Joyce Six Rounds to finish of Bermane Stiverne, but I think this one might be slightly quicker and backing him to get the job done in the first half of the fight is the pick.

Billy Joe Saunders vs Shefat Isufi

When you boil things down to the bottom line you can't help but be disappointed with Billy Joe Saunders' career so far.

No one can dispute the obvious talent Saunders has, but he has had too many long lay-offs and losing his WBO Middleweight Belt without fighting thanks to a failure of a drugs test only adds to the frustrations.

So much more was expected of Saunders, but that talent I mentioned means promoters are not ready to give up on him. He can become a real player at 160 and 168 if he can knuckle down and become a two weight World Champion, although Saunders may have to wait in line to get his crack at some of the biggest names out there like he wants to.

He is a big favourite to beat Shefat Isufi on Saturday and there is nothing Isufi has done in his career to really think he is going to upset the odds. The Serbian born German fighter might show some toughness and he will want to demonstrate he belongs at this level, but his skills shouldn't really be a match for Saunders who has beaten much better company than the one he is facing on Saturday.

The layers seem to think it is going to be an early night for Saunders, but I think Isufi might show a little more desire to compete than it is believed. He has three losses on his resume, but only one of those came in a stoppage when the corner pulled him out and so Isufi has to be respected in this one.

Only thirteen of Saunders' twenty-seven wins have come by stoppage and it does feel like this could be a fight that sees him coasting to a comfortable win on the cards. I can see Isufi demonstrating enough heart to keep going, but Saunders should be winning the Rounds and I think the question then becomes how much the visiting fighter will want it.

If he is down by a healthy margin going into the Tenth or Eleventh Round there is a chance the corner will want to shut it down. However I think Isufi's team may feel going the distance is a win for their man and I am going to have a small interest on the visitor hearing the bell, but Billy Joe Saunders ending the night as a two weight World Champion.

The new partnership with Ben Davison has seen Saunders get into fantastic shape for this fight and I think he will be pushing to finish this fight where he can. But Davison is also showing off his tactical nous as a Head Trainer and I think he will keep Saunders grounded and make sure he is not chasing a KO but winning every Round and showing the rest of the Division, and those below at Middleweight, that his man is ready for the big fights as soon as September.

Naoya Inoue vs Emmanuel Rodriguez

I have been critical of some of the cards that have been offered to the UK fans in 2019, but this one in Glasgow from the World Boxing Super Series deserves all the credit it is given.

It is not often that we can get to see a special fighter like Naoya Inoue on these shores and especially not when he is going up against a non-British opponent. 'The Monster' is on most pound for pound top ten lists and some would have him much higher than that as he continues to wreak havoc in the lower weight Divisions.

He came up to Bantamweight and ripped the WBA World Title from Jamie McDonnell and then defended it impressively in the Quarter Final of this tournament. Now Inoue has the chance to become a Unified Bantamweight World Champion and there are some major doors opening to the Japanese star.

Remaining focused is the key for Inoue who will know those same doors will be slammed shut if he is upset in this Semi Final. He is fighting an unbeaten World Champion in Emmanuel Rodriguez as they both chase to Unify the WBA Belt with the IBF one the Puerto Rican holds, but Inoue is a strong favourite and has been speaking with a lot of confidence this week.

Rodriguez has the confidence of being unbeaten, but there have been one or two signs that he is also appreciating the size of the task in front of him. It was a tougher than expected Quarter Final win for Rodriguez against Jason Moloney and I do think the early Rounds are going to be tough for him as he has to deal with the kind of power that he won't have seen too often even though Inoue has come up to this weight.

Most have not been able to keep Inoue off them and many have struggled to get out of the first half of fights. It would be a stunner if Inoue is able to make it three straight First Round stoppages, but I do think Rodriguez may be in a tough spot here and Inoue is capable of finding the stoppage in the first half of the bout.

Emmanuel Rodriguez is a decent fighter, but this is a step up and so far this week he has not looked like someone who is as confidence as his words. Getting out of the first half of the fight may be difficult once he feels the power coming his way and I think Inoue can be backed to earn the early stoppage as he has become accustomed in doing.

Josh Taylor vs Ivan Baranchyk

The IBF World Champion may be Ivan Baranchyk, but Josh Taylor is the significant favourite in this World Boxing Super Series Semi Final and he was also Seeded higher in the 'draw'.

Most in the UK have been aware of the talent of Taylor and he has been the leading contender to join the World Champion list for some time. Entering the World Boxing Super Series has given Taylor the platform to really showcase his talents and prove he is one of the best fighters in Britain, but that ability may have increased tenfold with the news that Sky Sports will be offering this fight live to their subscribers.

For the most part Taylor has been fighting on channels that may not really be able to promote him the same way and I do think this is a coming out party for him.

The Semi Final being hosted in Glasgow upset the defending Champion though and Baranchyk is heading over to destroy the Scottish hero in front of his own fans. Anyone called 'The Beast' is going to be pretty easy to sell to the fans and Baranchyk's desire to get forward and pummel opponents is very pleasing on the eye.

I don't think he is going to want to box with Taylor who might be the superior talent as far as skills go, but Baranchyk will want to test the will of his opponent. Ultimately I think that is where he will come up short as I am expecting Taylor to outbox him for large periods of the fight, especially once he gets through the first couple of Rounds to figure out what Baranchyk is bringing to the table.

My opinion is that Taylor is going to take away some of the Baranchyk heart by doing that early enough to make his opponent become very one-dimensional. At that stage I expect Taylor to begin to pepper Baranchyk as he comes forward and there is enough spite in the Brit's shots to think he is going to be the one handing out some punishment the longer the fight goes.

In the second half I am going to expect Taylor to look comfortable on the cards and have slowed down Baranchyk far enough to feel very easy in the ring. From there I think Taylor will be the one dishing out the big shots and he will break the heart of the Champion who will then be saved by the referee or his corner.

The sensible play may be Taylor winning on the cards, especially at home, but I think there is going to be a bigger statement made as he stops a tough opponent in the second half of this one.

Gary Russell Jr vs Kiko Martinez

For the fifth year in a row we are going to be seeing WBC Featherweight Champion Gary Russell Jr in the ring in the first half of the year. In the last four years that has proven to be his one and only appearance in the ring which is a real shame considering the obvious talent the American has and in a Division where there are some big fights that could be made.

His only loss has to Vasyl Lomachenko looks better all the time and most would have been hoping Russell Jr would have been paired up with Leo Santa Cruz by now to recognise the best fighter in the Division and Unify two of the Belts.

There has been more of a suggestion that Russell Jr will be making at least two appearances in 2019 and that can only be good news for the fans. As I have said before, there is no doubting how good Russell Jr is and he has some fast hands that could be a problem for anyone to deal with.

He has to get through this fight to make the big fights with the likes of Santa Cruz, Josh Warrington, Oscar Valdez and Carl Frampton a reality. And in all honesty this should not be a difficult evening for Russell Jr when he faces Kiko Martinez who has regularly come up short when facing the best in this Division.

Since coming up to 126 Martinez has lost to both Santa Cruz and Warrington, while he has previously been beaten by both Frampton and Scott Quigg at 122. Both Quigg and Santa Cruz have stopped Martinez who now has a lot of miles on the clock ahead of facing Russell Jr.

He has been much more active than the American, but Martinez has also been operating at a much lower level. This is a fight in which the Spaniard is going to be facing some incredibly quick hands and I think Russell Jr will be keen to remind the rest of the Division of what he is capable of by not having to work overtime for the win.

Carl Frampton, Scott Quigg and Leo Santa Cruz all put Martinez down in the first half of their fights against him. Both Quigg and Santa Cruz managed to get him out in the Second and Fifth Round respectively and Russell Jr had won three in a row by stoppage before Joseph Diaz was able to go to the cards twelve months ago.

I think an early onslaught from Russell Jr may put Martinez down in this one and the speed of the combinations may be enough to get the referee to step in. With that in mind and with Russell Jr aiming to be back out in the ring again in 2019 I think this is just going to be a time to show he is still at the peak of his powers and backing him to produce a dominant win is the call.

Deontay Wilder vs Dominic Breazeale

There is some legit bad blood between these two fighters who had an altercation in a hotel lobby in Alabama following a night in which both had won in the ring.

Some of the words from Deontay Wilder in the build up to this one have been unsavoury, but Dominic Breazeale is keeping his cool for now and promising to hand out a punishing defeat to the WBC Heavyweight Champion.

It certainly would be a surprise if there is much of a feeling out process in this one with Breazeale not being as quick or slick as Tyson Fury to really believe he can outbox Wilder for long periods. The Champion will be looking to land his right hand on an opponent who has not always been able to get out of the way of big shots and he has been down enough times in his career to believe Breazeale is going to struggle with the power that Wilder brings to the table.

I also believe Wilder is one of the best finishers out there and if does get to Breazeale early and knock his compatriot down this could be a fight that does not go much beyond that.

Dominic Breazeale seems like a decent bloke to be perfectly honest, but I do think he is far too open defensively and I am not sure Virgil Hunter would have been able to tighten him up. A defeat makes it a long road back for Breazeale considering he has already lost to Anthony Joshua, although he does show plenty of heart in his fights to suggest he can bite down on the gum-shield and try and fight fire with fire.

He does hit hard enough to potentially cause problems for Wilder if the Champion is perhaps pushing too hard for the early Knock Out. I can imagine a situation where Breazeale perhaps rocks Wilder in the early exchanges, but I think the power of Wilder is going to be a telling factor in the potential shoot out between two massive fighters.

Anyone who saw Breazeale's effort against Joshua in a defeat and his heart in the win over Izuagbe Ugonoh will know this is not a fighter who will quit easily. He goes down, but refuses to stay down so this might be a fight with multiple Knock Downs, although I do think Wilder's athleticism is going to be tough to hold off if he does put Breazeale down.

We have seen Wilder outboxed by opponents before finding the leveller later in some of his recent bouts, but I think he beats Joshua by getting Breazeale out in the first half of a fun shoot out.

MY PICKS: Joe Joyce to Win Between 1-5 @ 2.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Billy Joe Saunders to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 4.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Naoya Inoue to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.75 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Josh Taylor to Win Between 7-12 @ 5.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Gary Russell Jr to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.60 William Hill (2 Units)
Deontay Wilder to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2019 Update: 8-20, - 6.20 Units (44 Units Staked, - 14.09% Yield)

Boxing 2018: + 5.14 Units (159 Units Staked, + 3.23% Yield)