It has been a frustrating week for the picks with a lot of early winners followed by poor afternoon results.
The same happened again on Wednesday with the first two picks coming in as winners before the final three picks circled the drain. It is a little annoying, but that is the way it goes sometimes and it can quickly be turned around over the last four days of the events taking place this week.
Like the majority of the rest of the picks that I have made this week, I am going to be sticking with the event in Wuhan which has reached the Quarter Final stage. One of those Quarter Final matches are yet to be set thanks to the rain in the area, but all four will be played on Thursday as this tournament reaches the final couple of days.
Simona Halep - 3.5 games v Madison Keys: These players met in the Final of the Canadian Premier Event and Simona Halep was not as favoured to win that Final as she is in winning this Quarter Final against Madison Keys. A part of the reason was the form that Keys had shown that week in reaching the Final and Halep had also had a very difficult Semi Final against Angelique Kerber, but I think the Romanian is much fresher for this match and so the layers are asking her to cover an additional game.
I do think Halep is able to do that against a player she has beaten twice already this season including on the grass courts of Wimbledon where most would have expected Keys to come through. In both wins Halep has been able to cover this number with her superior movement and ability to make Keys play more balls than normal has helped her break down the power of the American.
Halep is capable of putting Keys in some really awkward positions on the court and I am still not convinced Keys has enough planning in her game to win a really big title. We know what we are going to get from Keys and that is some big time tennis beginning with a powerful serve and followed by heavy groundstrokes.
When that is a tactic that isn't working as effectively as usual, Keys can struggle to move to Plan B and I do think that is why Halep has got the better of her in their recent matches. Halep will know that her serve can be attacked by someone with the power Keys has, but she won't get too down on herself and will try to drag Keys into the longer rallies that Halep will expect to win more often than not.
Both wins have seen Halep cover this number against Keys and I also think she has shown much more consistent form over the last couple of months so I will back the World Number 4 to have a little too much in her locker in this one.
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: This Quarter Final looks to be a very good one between Svetlana Kuznetsova and Agnieszka Radwanska and I think it is going to be a close and competitive match.
Picking a winner is difficult with Kuznetsova having a clear edge on the head to head, but the last of those matches taking place last year. Going back to 2009, Kuznetsova has won seven of the last eight matches between these players, but Radwanska might feel she is the better form over the last couple of months which will give her the edge.
The match up is going to be Kuznetsova's power and aggression against Radwanska's ability to get around the court and make plenty of defensive plays and try and extract errors from the Kuznetsova game. There will be times when the Pole is very successful at doing that, but I think at other times it will be Kuznetsova dominating rallies and forcing breaks of serve.
I got it wrong yesterday when backing Caroline Wozniacki as the underdog with the games against Radwanska. However Wozniacki might not have been at 100% and had plenty of chances to get ahead in the match and Kuznetsova is in stronger physical condition at this moment with a solid couple of wins behind her.
Taking the games in this one should be important if Kuznetsova can win a set as I think that can inspire her to win this one outright too.
Johanna Konta v Petra Kvitova: Johanna Konta is the slight underdog in this match against Petra Kvitova and that has got to have something to do with the fact the latter was playing for over three hours in an epic match with Angelique Kerber on Wednesday. While Kvitova has been given twenty-four hours to get ready for this match, I can't help but feel that something has been taken away from Kvitova from that Third Round win.
This is a player that has won big tournaments before so I know Kvitova won't be unfamiliar with the situation of back to back matches, but she won't have spent that time on court too often. Kvitova has to be feeling it physically and mentally having come from a set down to beat the World Number 1 and I do think Konta has a chance to 'pick the bones' of the player that does come out to face her on court.
Konta can't just think she has to turn up to win this game as a tired player might be more likely to hit out when the short ball comes their way. A player like Kvitova is happy to play with that aggression in mind and she is more than capable of blasting off anyone when on her day so Konta will have to be smart with the way she plays this match.
If she can put together a game plan where Konta executes by serving well and forcing Kvitova to move from side to side I think she has a great chance of winning this match. That should open up the drop shot that Konta loves to play and she has to play tight and not give away too many unforced errors to make Kvitova feel the match pressurising her from a mental point of view as well as extending the rallies to physically wear her out.
I do think Konta is able to do that and move into the Semi Final where she is earning the Ranking points to challenge for a top eight place in Singapore at the end of October.
MY PICKS: Simona Halep - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Johanna Konta @ 2.00 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 6-7, - 3.98 Units (26 Units Staked, - 15.31% Yield)
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Thursday, 29 September 2016
Wednesday, 28 September 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (September 28th)
It was another frustrating day for the tennis picks with the matches on Tuesday going 2-2 for the second time in a row.
A 50% hit rate is no good for the picks and keeping the momentum rolling from the US Open as I look to end 2016 with positive results and try to get the season totals back into a positive position.
On Wednesday the tournaments are beginning to move into the later stages of the events being held in Asia, but the majority of my picks will once again come from the tournament being held in Wuhan where the top WTA players have been taking part.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: This has been a very good year for Daria Kasatkina but the feeling is that she might have hit the wall that many youngsters do in their breakthrough on the main Tour. She had been in poor form prior to the tournament in Wuhan, but Kasatkina should have earned some confidence having come through the Qualifiers and then won two matches in the main draw.
Kasatkina has been a pretty strong favourite in every match she has played so far this week, but that won't be the case when she faces Madison Keys in the Third Round. The American is still trying to find the consistency that will see her take the next step in her career, but she has the power to make life very difficult for Kasatkina.
When they played at the Olympic Games, it was Keys' extra ability to hit through a slow court that hurt Kasatkina in the straight sets win and I think something similar will develop here.
The Keys serve has to be firing because that builds the confidence in her entire game and her power makes her a dangerous returner on the Tour. I do think she served well enough against Caroline Garcia to suggest she will have a little too much for Kasatkina and I expect Keys will earn at least three breaks of serve in this one which should lead to a 64, 64 win for the American.
Johanna Konta - 1.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: It will take a couple of really big tournaments for Johanna Konta to work her way through to the top eight in the Race to Singapore, but she did make a good start to that with a comfortable win in the Second Round in Wuhan.
Finishing in the top eight places in the Race to Singapore will begin this week for Konta who faces Carla Suarez Navarro in the Third Round, the player who currently is 8th in the leaderboard. This is a big test for Konta because Suarez Navarro is capable of beating the best players on the Tour when she is finding her best tennis, although the serve remains the big hindrance to her winning a really big tournament.
When on top form, Suarez Navarro is capable of looking after the serve even if it isn't going to produce too many cheap points from that shot. She is very capable off the ground and Konta can't afford to give up too many unforced errors to the Spaniard if she is going to avoid defeat in this one.
The backhand to backhand battles are going to be beautiful to watch with both players more comfortable from that wing. There won't be much between them, but I think Konta's stronger groundstrokes and first serve can be the difference maker in this one as long as she stays emotionally and physically invested in the match. It might need three sets, but Konta can battle through to the Quarter Final behind a 63, 46, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: After winning the Australian Open back in January, Angelique Kerber struggled with the new expectation of being a Grand Slam Champion going into any tournament she played. The German didn't have the same struggles after reaching the Final at Wimbledon, perhaps showing Kerber was ready to play at those levels consistently.
Now she comes into Wuhan as a two time Grand Slam winner following her success at the US Open, but also a new pressure of being the current World Number 1 having overtaken Serena Williams in New York City. Kerber came back from a set down to beat Kristina Mladenovic in her first match here in Wuhan and I think she is going to have a strong end to the season although her match with Petra Kvitova is going to be a real test for her.
It has been an impressive tournament for Kvitova so far which has followed some strong runs over the last couple of months. However she is still trying to find the confidence you need when taking on the very best players on the Tour and I think that is where Kvitova has fallen short more often than not.
These players met at the US Open and it was Kerber's superiority in the rallies that proved to be the difference maker on the day. If Kerber can take advantage of the second serves she will see in this one, I think the new World Number 1 can stamp her authority on the women's game with an impressive win against a big name on the Tour.
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: There is no doubt we are going to see plenty of breaks of serve when Caroline Wozniacki and Agnieszka Radwanska play one another in the Third Round in Wuhan. They combined for 13 breaks of serve when they played in the Semi Final in Tokyo last week and it was Wozniacki who got the better of Radwanska on that occasion.
It has been a match up that Wozniacki has enjoyed with nine wins to four and she has won the last four matches between the players over the last two years. Out of the two players, I do think Wozniacki has a little more pop in her shots which can help her wear down Radwanska and this is a match that has the potential of going into a third set where the Pole has not been at her best.
The confidence has been flowing through Wozniacki who has had three really good tournaments in a row to keep her World Ranking moving back in the positive direction she would be expecting. That confidence makes her a dangerous player this week although she has had more tennis over the last couple of weeks than most others left in the draw.
One of those is not Radwanska though and I think the mental edge belongs to Wozniacki in this one. It could easily be another match that goes the distance and that makes this number of games very appealing to back the underdog and I think Wozniacki can keep within the number even if she is on the wrong end of the final result this week.
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: Both of these players are much more comfortable on the clay courts than the hard courts, but I think the veteran Italian Paolo Lorenzi can get the better of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in this one. While both are happier on the clay, Lorenzi has at least put some more wins together on the hard courts and he did reach the Quarter Final on an indoor hard court event in St Petersburg last week.
It is also Lorenzi that has two wins over Schwartzman under his belt in the 2016 season, although both of those have come on the clay courts, and that can give him another mental edge in this Second Round match.
Even though this match is being played on the hard courts, I do think there will be plenty of long rallies and chances to break for both players. However I think Lorenzi is the more confident player on this surface at the moment and the wins he has over Schwartzman will make him believe he can win this one when the big moments come along.
There is a chance this will need three sets to separate the players, but Lorenzi is capable of winning one of the sets with a couple of breaks of serve more than Schwartzman manages. That should help him cover this number in a winning effort even over three sets and I will back Lorenzi to do that.
MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, - 7.88% Yield)
A 50% hit rate is no good for the picks and keeping the momentum rolling from the US Open as I look to end 2016 with positive results and try to get the season totals back into a positive position.
On Wednesday the tournaments are beginning to move into the later stages of the events being held in Asia, but the majority of my picks will once again come from the tournament being held in Wuhan where the top WTA players have been taking part.
Madison Keys - 3.5 games v Daria Kasatkina: This has been a very good year for Daria Kasatkina but the feeling is that she might have hit the wall that many youngsters do in their breakthrough on the main Tour. She had been in poor form prior to the tournament in Wuhan, but Kasatkina should have earned some confidence having come through the Qualifiers and then won two matches in the main draw.
Kasatkina has been a pretty strong favourite in every match she has played so far this week, but that won't be the case when she faces Madison Keys in the Third Round. The American is still trying to find the consistency that will see her take the next step in her career, but she has the power to make life very difficult for Kasatkina.
When they played at the Olympic Games, it was Keys' extra ability to hit through a slow court that hurt Kasatkina in the straight sets win and I think something similar will develop here.
The Keys serve has to be firing because that builds the confidence in her entire game and her power makes her a dangerous returner on the Tour. I do think she served well enough against Caroline Garcia to suggest she will have a little too much for Kasatkina and I expect Keys will earn at least three breaks of serve in this one which should lead to a 64, 64 win for the American.
Johanna Konta - 1.5 games v Carla Suarez Navarro: It will take a couple of really big tournaments for Johanna Konta to work her way through to the top eight in the Race to Singapore, but she did make a good start to that with a comfortable win in the Second Round in Wuhan.
Finishing in the top eight places in the Race to Singapore will begin this week for Konta who faces Carla Suarez Navarro in the Third Round, the player who currently is 8th in the leaderboard. This is a big test for Konta because Suarez Navarro is capable of beating the best players on the Tour when she is finding her best tennis, although the serve remains the big hindrance to her winning a really big tournament.
When on top form, Suarez Navarro is capable of looking after the serve even if it isn't going to produce too many cheap points from that shot. She is very capable off the ground and Konta can't afford to give up too many unforced errors to the Spaniard if she is going to avoid defeat in this one.
The backhand to backhand battles are going to be beautiful to watch with both players more comfortable from that wing. There won't be much between them, but I think Konta's stronger groundstrokes and first serve can be the difference maker in this one as long as she stays emotionally and physically invested in the match. It might need three sets, but Konta can battle through to the Quarter Final behind a 63, 46, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Petra Kvitova: After winning the Australian Open back in January, Angelique Kerber struggled with the new expectation of being a Grand Slam Champion going into any tournament she played. The German didn't have the same struggles after reaching the Final at Wimbledon, perhaps showing Kerber was ready to play at those levels consistently.
Now she comes into Wuhan as a two time Grand Slam winner following her success at the US Open, but also a new pressure of being the current World Number 1 having overtaken Serena Williams in New York City. Kerber came back from a set down to beat Kristina Mladenovic in her first match here in Wuhan and I think she is going to have a strong end to the season although her match with Petra Kvitova is going to be a real test for her.
It has been an impressive tournament for Kvitova so far which has followed some strong runs over the last couple of months. However she is still trying to find the confidence you need when taking on the very best players on the Tour and I think that is where Kvitova has fallen short more often than not.
These players met at the US Open and it was Kerber's superiority in the rallies that proved to be the difference maker on the day. If Kerber can take advantage of the second serves she will see in this one, I think the new World Number 1 can stamp her authority on the women's game with an impressive win against a big name on the Tour.
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 games v Agnieszka Radwanska: There is no doubt we are going to see plenty of breaks of serve when Caroline Wozniacki and Agnieszka Radwanska play one another in the Third Round in Wuhan. They combined for 13 breaks of serve when they played in the Semi Final in Tokyo last week and it was Wozniacki who got the better of Radwanska on that occasion.
It has been a match up that Wozniacki has enjoyed with nine wins to four and she has won the last four matches between the players over the last two years. Out of the two players, I do think Wozniacki has a little more pop in her shots which can help her wear down Radwanska and this is a match that has the potential of going into a third set where the Pole has not been at her best.
The confidence has been flowing through Wozniacki who has had three really good tournaments in a row to keep her World Ranking moving back in the positive direction she would be expecting. That confidence makes her a dangerous player this week although she has had more tennis over the last couple of weeks than most others left in the draw.
One of those is not Radwanska though and I think the mental edge belongs to Wozniacki in this one. It could easily be another match that goes the distance and that makes this number of games very appealing to back the underdog and I think Wozniacki can keep within the number even if she is on the wrong end of the final result this week.
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 games v Diego Sebastian Schwartzman: Both of these players are much more comfortable on the clay courts than the hard courts, but I think the veteran Italian Paolo Lorenzi can get the better of Diego Sebastian Schwartzman in this one. While both are happier on the clay, Lorenzi has at least put some more wins together on the hard courts and he did reach the Quarter Final on an indoor hard court event in St Petersburg last week.
It is also Lorenzi that has two wins over Schwartzman under his belt in the 2016 season, although both of those have come on the clay courts, and that can give him another mental edge in this Second Round match.
Even though this match is being played on the hard courts, I do think there will be plenty of long rallies and chances to break for both players. However I think Lorenzi is the more confident player on this surface at the moment and the wins he has over Schwartzman will make him believe he can win this one when the big moments come along.
There is a chance this will need three sets to separate the players, but Lorenzi is capable of winning one of the sets with a couple of breaks of serve more than Schwartzman manages. That should help him cover this number in a winning effort even over three sets and I will back Lorenzi to do that.
MY PICKS: Madison Keys - 3.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Paolo Lorenzi - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 4-4, - 1.26 Units (16 Units Staked, - 7.88% Yield)
Tuesday, 27 September 2016
Midweek Football Picks 2016 (September 27-29)
The next international break is fast approaching, but before that we have Match Day 2 of the European competitions and then a final round of domestic football to play this weekend.
At least the next set of World Cup Qualifiers are a double header, but I can't help feel the break in the domestic season is as frustrating for the players and managers as it is for the fans. Momentum can be blocked, plus you never know what kind of condition players will return in.
This time around the two week break will be followed by a huge Liverpool vs Manchester United clash on Monday Night Football after the last one was followed by the Manchester derby, but it is a shame there has to be a break between the fixtures this weekend and the ones that will follow.
Match Day 2 won't make or break any team's chances of moving through to the Knock Out Stage of the Champions League and Europa League, but there are a couple of the English teams in a tough position right now. Neither Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United can afford another loss already having been beaten in Match Day 1 and I think it is the former who have the tougher test, but Manchester United have the difficulty of Match Day 3 landing in a really awkward spot between fixtures at Liverpool and Chelsea so the pressure is on to win this week.
September has proven to be a very good month for the picks which has put the season totals in a strong place. There are still three important days to go in the month (I am putting Friday's games with the October totals) and I am just looking for a strong end to make sure nothing is given back now.
CSKA Moscow v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a pretty big Champions League game for both CSKA Moscow and Tottenham Hotspur considering it is only Match Day 2, but both teams will be looking at the fixture as one they need to get something from. A draw probably doesn't do either team that good, although I imagine Tottenham Hotspur would take that outcome right now, but for CSKA Moscow the importance of winning their home games will not have been lost on them.
That could make this a very interesting game of football as Tottenham Hotspur are likely to earn some space on the counter attack, while CSKA Moscow will get forward looking for goals.
I am anticipating goals in this one, especially when you consider CSKA Moscow had played 6 straight Champions League games here where both teams had scored before the 0-2 defeat to Wolfsburg. That includes a 1-1 draw with Manchester United last season and I do think Tottenham Hotspur can score goals even in the absence of Harry Kane.
Tottenham Hotspur have not looked as strong defensively in the early going of this season as they did last season and I think CSKA Moscow will be urged to get forward by the fans. That should mean there being chances at both ends with Tottenham Hotspur very comfortable countering teams that are coming onto them while CSKA Moscow have scored in all 13 home games since their loss to Wolfsburg in the Champions League.
I am looking for at least three goals to be shared out in this one as both clubs look for the first win in the competition and it looks a big price at odds against for three goals to be seen.
Copenhagen v Club Brugge Pick: After earning a 1-1 draw in Porto, Copenhagen will know that was a wasted effort if they cannot back it up by beating Club Brugge. Doing that will mean the double header with Leicester City will give Copenhagen a great chance of making it through to the Last 16 if they can earn four points from those two games too and I am backing Copenhagen to earn the three points from this game.
I thought Club Brugge may be the weakest team in the section when the draw was made, but not many would have tipped Leicester City to win as easily in Belgium as they did. The 0-3 home loss means Club Brugge are already battling for third place in the Group and a place in the Europa League Knock Out, but they have had a difficult start to the new season.
They might be the reigning Belgian Champions, but Club Brugge have opened the season in poor form and had lost 3 in a row away from home before the 0-3 win at Royal Excel Mouscron. Club Brugge will now face the Danish Champions who have won 12 of 13 at home in all competitions and Copenhagen have also won all 3 home games in the Qualifiers for the Champions League Group Stage.
Both teams do have goals in the side and Copenhagen have shortened in the markets over the last few days, but they still look worthy of being backed to win this game. Copenhagen have beaten the likes of Astra and APOEL already at home this season in the Champions League and I do think they will be slightly stronger than Club Brugge and I will back the home side to take the very important three points on offer.
Leicester City v Porto Pick: Being Champions of England meant Leicester City benefited by being a First Seed in the Champions League Group Stage despite their low co-efficient. The Group came out pretty nicely for Leicester City and a win on Tuesday would put them in a very strong position to quality for the Last 16 as potential winners of the section.
Claudio Ranieri is unlikely to allow his team to look too far ahead though and no one will be taking Porto for granted even if they do have The Dragon Slayer in their ranks in Islam Slimani. His knowledge of the visitors will help, and I think Leicester City are going to cause Porto problems considering they have scored at least twice in 6 of their last 7 games at the King Power Stadium including the last 3 in a row.
This might not be the Porto side to rival the one that won the Champions League in 2004, but they are not one to be underestimated as they showed in an impressive 0-3 win in Roma in the Qualifiers. They have scored in 9 of their last 10 away games in the Champions League, but Porto have also conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 on their travels.
I can see both teams combining for goals in this one too as there will likely be times when both Leicester City and Porto are in control of this match. A draw isn't the worst result for either team, but the win would help put up a crucial three points and that reward should encourage attacking football.
Both teams have been scoring goals and conceding goals and 6 of the last 9 Porto away games in the Champions League have produced at least three goals. At odds against, I am backing Leicester City and Porto to combine for at least three goals in this one and I am leaning towards the home team earning another three points to move into a strong position to qualify for the Second Round.
Monaco v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: There are very few times when you really don't understand what the layers are thinking when they price up their markets. For the life of me, I cannot understand why Monaco are the home underdog against Bayer Leverkusen and I think the French side are worthy of a small interest to win this one.
Monaco have made a strong start to their domestic campaign and they have won 4 in a row at home in all competitions. They have also beaten Fenerbahce and Villarreal in the Champions League Qualifiers and two seasons ago beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 here in the Group Stage.
It does have to be noted that Bayer Leverkusen had a solid 2-3 win at Mainz last weekend, but that snapped a run of consecutive away defeats. Bayer Leverkusen have now failed to win any of their last 6 away games in the Champions League and they had lost 4 in a row before the 1-1 draw at BATE Borisov in the Group last season.
The German side do have goals in the side which makes them dangerous as Monaco are not likely to score too many themselves, but I think the odds are the wrong way around.
I thought Monaco would come in as the more likely winner and I am going to have a small interest in them keeping the home winning run going with another Champions League win to put themselves in a strong position to move into the Second Round for the second time in three seasons.
Arsenal v Basel Pick: Manchester City and Liverpool might be taking all of the headlines in England, but Arsenal have quietly moved into a decent position in the Premier League. The fixture list should see them continue their run through the international break and into late October, but first they would like to get their Champions League Group commitments moving in the right direction.
A solid point was earned in Paris, but it won't mean anything if Arsenal can't win this home game against Basel. They have lost 3 of their last 5 Champions League games at The Emirates Stadium, but Arsenal are in very strong form and been scoring goals for fun with 11 goals scored in 3 games.
With the talent in the squad, Arsenal are the right favourites in this game, but they can't overlook Basel who have won 11 of 12 games in all competitions. The 1-1 draw with Ludogorets in the Champions League was a big disappointment for Basel, but Arsenal fans have to be aware that this is a club that has had plenty of success against English clubs in recent years.
Basel have lost just 1 of their last 5 away games against English clubs in Europe which includes draws at Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur and a win over Chelsea. That makes them more than capable of current form of upsetting the home team in this one, but I think Arsenal are flying at the moment and are clearly a superior team.
The confidence from the 3-0 win over Chelsea at the weekend should see Arsenal come into this one with some momentum and I think they may break down Basel early and then pull away. There are still some questions about Arsenal from a defensive standpoint, but I fancy them to be too good for Basel on Wednesday and I will back The Gunners to cover the Asian Handicap.
Celtic v Manchester City Pick: This fixture will be described as a 'Battle of Britain' and it seems fair with both Celtic and Manchester City favourites to win the titles in Scotland and England respectively. That is where the similarity ends though as Manchester City can bring in some of the biggest names in world football compared with Celtic who have to try and build their squad in a much different manner.
The layers are expecting that to show up on the pitch on Wednesday especially in the light of the Celtic hammering at Barcelona on Match Day 1. To be fair, anything but a Manchester City win would be a surprise, but losing the talents of Kevin De Bruyne is a blow that can't be underestimated.
On the other hand, Manchester City played and beat Manchester United without Sergio Aguero so they are clearly buying into what Pep Guardiola is selling. They should have too much going forward for Celtic, but I also think the latter are going to be inspired by the home crowd and I expect they can cause one or two problems for a team that has not defended that well.
Celtic have been better at home than on their travels in European football and just months after Guardiola left Barcelona they were beating them 2-1 here. It would be a big surprise if they could do that to his current Manchester City team, but I do think Celtic will score in this one.
With the talent in the away squad even without De Bruyne, I can't imagine they don't score in this one and I am going to back both teams to get on the scoreboard.
Rostov v PSV Eindhoven Pick: This is a Champions League game that might only really have an impact as to which of the clubs gets into the Europa League. Both Rostov and PSV Eindhoven are not really expected to challenge Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid in the Group and their opening losses to those clubs has suggested that is not likely to change.
I will have to say I am surprised that Rostov are the underdog at home against PSV Eindhoven and probably has much to do with the experience the latter have compared with Rostov in European football. However Rostov hammered Ajax here in the Champions League Qualifiers and I like their chances of getting something from this game.
Rostov also managed to avoid defeat against Anderlecht in the Qualifiers and you can't ignore the fact that PSV Eindhoven have failed to win any of their last 6 away European games. They were also beaten in Russia by CSKA Moscow in the Group Stage last season and I simply can't have PSV Eindhoven as a favourite to win here despite their strong away results to open this season.
While PSV Eindhoven have a strong run of away results, Rostov are unbeaten in 24 at home in all competitions which includes the win over Ajax in the Qualifiers. Having a chance to back them with a start on the Asian Handicap looks very tempting and I do think they are the more likely winners in this match.
I will back Rostov to at least find a way to avoid defeat in this one and keep alive their chances of at least finishing third in the Group.
Fiorentina v Qarabag Pick: When you look at these teams on paper you would have to think the Italian side would be stronger than the one from Azerbaijan especially on home soil.
However Fiorentina have just been having a difficult time of late in turning draws into wins while they have also struggled at home in the Europa League despite getting to the later stages of the competition. The likes of Lech Poznan and Basel have won in Florence so Qarabag won't feel overawed especially as the latter have had tight losses in Tottenham Hotspur, Anderlecht and Monaco last season.
I do think Qarabag will sit back and try to make life as difficult for Fiorentina for as long as possible and perhaps nick a goal on the counter attack. The problem they will have is that Fiorentina have defended well at home in recent games and are yet to concede a goal here this season.
That should give Fiorentina enough of an edge to earn a narrow win in this one and I will back them to win this game by a single goal margin.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Southampton Pick: Both Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Southampton made winning starts to their Europa League Group and you have to say that a draw would likely suit both on Match Day 2. However I don't think either will settle for a point knowing that Inter Milan look an improved line up under Frank de Boer and so the three points on offer in this one could give the winner a real chance of progressing through to the Last 32.
There are likely to be some changes to the Southampton line up, but they can't take Hapoel Be'er Sheva for granted after the Israeli Champions won in Milan and also came close to beating Celtic in the Champions League Play Off Round.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva have scored at least twice in their last 4 home games in all competitions, although they will have to penetrate a Southampton team that have kept 4 clean sheets in a row. Most of those games have come at St Mary's though and I think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will cause problems for their visitors, although Charlie Austin is in the kind of form to punish any mistakes the home team may make.
It should be a fun game to watch and I think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will drag Southampton into an intense match. They have shown they can create chances against any team they face at home and I think the home team have every chance of winning this game. The recent Southampton form means I think they play a part in this one too and I will back at least three goals to be shared out by them this week.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting Braga Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting Braga look to be the strongest teams in this Europa League Group, but only the former proved that in the first round of games in the Group. That means the pressure is on Sporting Braga to earn some sort of result in their visit to the Ukraine, but that might be a tough ask for a team that were beaten 6-1 on aggregate against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Quarter Final of the Europa League a few months ago.
Shakhtar Donetsk are looking to show they are the best team in Ukraine and have made a very strong start to their domestic League. They might not be as strong as recent teams that Shakhtar Donetsk have been able to put out, but they look more than capable at this level rather than the Champions League and have won plenty of games in the Ukraine.
Compare that to Sporting Braga's relatively poor away record in recent European games and I have to favour the home team to beat them for the third time in the space of a few months.
I can't imagine Shakhtar Donetsk are able to rip through Sporting Braga as they did in the 4-0 home win in the Quarter Final, but I do expect them to win with some comfort. I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap and win by a couple of goals at least.
Sparta Prague v Inter Milan Pick: Both Sparta Prague and Inter Milan were beaten on Match Day 1 and that means neither team can afford another loss at this moment if they are going to challenge for one of the top two positions in the Group.
That pressure might suggest we are going to see a tight game where the teams are almost more afraid to lose than to risk winning the game, but I actually believe it might develop into a fixture that produces at least three goals at a big price.
Inter Milan have scored twice in their last couple of away games and Sparta Prague have been conceding goals at home at an alarming rate. In fact 4 of the last 5 Sparta Prague home games has seen them conceded at least twice, but they had also scored two or more in 4 straight games before the 0-2 defeat to Slavia Prague.
Goals have flowed in the last couple of home Sparta Prague games in the Europa League too and I am anticipating both teams trying to earn what could be a vital three points in this one with some attacking football being used. It feels like this could be a 2-1 scoreline either way for me and so backing goals at the prices looks the call.
Genk v Sassuolo Pick: This might be one of the more entertaining games in the Europa League on Thursday on Match Day 2 as both Genk and Sassuolo are likely to take an attacking approach to their game against one another. Sassuolo already have an important three points on the board thanks to an impressive win over Athletic Bilbao, but they can't expect it to get easier against Genk who were unfortunate to lose two weeks ago.
They have been very tough to play at home and Genk will give Sassuolo some issues when they get forward. Recent form is not the best and Genk have looked poor defensively, but Sassuolo have conceded in 4 of their 5 away games in all competitions themselves.
I do think both teams can score in this one with the opportunities they are likely to create and the 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous one for my pick.
However I do think both Genk and Sassuolo will know the importance of winning this game and what it could mean for them and so I am not anticipating either settles for that score. I do see a situation where one of these teams will score a second goal and a 2-1 win either way is likely to be the outcome of this one so backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against.
MY PICKS: CSKA Moscow-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Copenhagen @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Leicester City-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Monaco @ 3.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celtic-Manchester City BTTS @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Rostov + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fiorentina to Win by One Goal @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sparta Prague-Inter Milan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)
Genk-Sassuolo Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
At least the next set of World Cup Qualifiers are a double header, but I can't help feel the break in the domestic season is as frustrating for the players and managers as it is for the fans. Momentum can be blocked, plus you never know what kind of condition players will return in.
This time around the two week break will be followed by a huge Liverpool vs Manchester United clash on Monday Night Football after the last one was followed by the Manchester derby, but it is a shame there has to be a break between the fixtures this weekend and the ones that will follow.
Match Day 2 won't make or break any team's chances of moving through to the Knock Out Stage of the Champions League and Europa League, but there are a couple of the English teams in a tough position right now. Neither Tottenham Hotspur or Manchester United can afford another loss already having been beaten in Match Day 1 and I think it is the former who have the tougher test, but Manchester United have the difficulty of Match Day 3 landing in a really awkward spot between fixtures at Liverpool and Chelsea so the pressure is on to win this week.
September has proven to be a very good month for the picks which has put the season totals in a strong place. There are still three important days to go in the month (I am putting Friday's games with the October totals) and I am just looking for a strong end to make sure nothing is given back now.
CSKA Moscow v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: This is a pretty big Champions League game for both CSKA Moscow and Tottenham Hotspur considering it is only Match Day 2, but both teams will be looking at the fixture as one they need to get something from. A draw probably doesn't do either team that good, although I imagine Tottenham Hotspur would take that outcome right now, but for CSKA Moscow the importance of winning their home games will not have been lost on them.
That could make this a very interesting game of football as Tottenham Hotspur are likely to earn some space on the counter attack, while CSKA Moscow will get forward looking for goals.
I am anticipating goals in this one, especially when you consider CSKA Moscow had played 6 straight Champions League games here where both teams had scored before the 0-2 defeat to Wolfsburg. That includes a 1-1 draw with Manchester United last season and I do think Tottenham Hotspur can score goals even in the absence of Harry Kane.
Tottenham Hotspur have not looked as strong defensively in the early going of this season as they did last season and I think CSKA Moscow will be urged to get forward by the fans. That should mean there being chances at both ends with Tottenham Hotspur very comfortable countering teams that are coming onto them while CSKA Moscow have scored in all 13 home games since their loss to Wolfsburg in the Champions League.
I am looking for at least three goals to be shared out in this one as both clubs look for the first win in the competition and it looks a big price at odds against for three goals to be seen.
Copenhagen v Club Brugge Pick: After earning a 1-1 draw in Porto, Copenhagen will know that was a wasted effort if they cannot back it up by beating Club Brugge. Doing that will mean the double header with Leicester City will give Copenhagen a great chance of making it through to the Last 16 if they can earn four points from those two games too and I am backing Copenhagen to earn the three points from this game.
I thought Club Brugge may be the weakest team in the section when the draw was made, but not many would have tipped Leicester City to win as easily in Belgium as they did. The 0-3 home loss means Club Brugge are already battling for third place in the Group and a place in the Europa League Knock Out, but they have had a difficult start to the new season.
They might be the reigning Belgian Champions, but Club Brugge have opened the season in poor form and had lost 3 in a row away from home before the 0-3 win at Royal Excel Mouscron. Club Brugge will now face the Danish Champions who have won 12 of 13 at home in all competitions and Copenhagen have also won all 3 home games in the Qualifiers for the Champions League Group Stage.
Both teams do have goals in the side and Copenhagen have shortened in the markets over the last few days, but they still look worthy of being backed to win this game. Copenhagen have beaten the likes of Astra and APOEL already at home this season in the Champions League and I do think they will be slightly stronger than Club Brugge and I will back the home side to take the very important three points on offer.
Leicester City v Porto Pick: Being Champions of England meant Leicester City benefited by being a First Seed in the Champions League Group Stage despite their low co-efficient. The Group came out pretty nicely for Leicester City and a win on Tuesday would put them in a very strong position to quality for the Last 16 as potential winners of the section.
Claudio Ranieri is unlikely to allow his team to look too far ahead though and no one will be taking Porto for granted even if they do have The Dragon Slayer in their ranks in Islam Slimani. His knowledge of the visitors will help, and I think Leicester City are going to cause Porto problems considering they have scored at least twice in 6 of their last 7 games at the King Power Stadium including the last 3 in a row.
This might not be the Porto side to rival the one that won the Champions League in 2004, but they are not one to be underestimated as they showed in an impressive 0-3 win in Roma in the Qualifiers. They have scored in 9 of their last 10 away games in the Champions League, but Porto have also conceded at least twice in 3 of their last 5 on their travels.
I can see both teams combining for goals in this one too as there will likely be times when both Leicester City and Porto are in control of this match. A draw isn't the worst result for either team, but the win would help put up a crucial three points and that reward should encourage attacking football.
Both teams have been scoring goals and conceding goals and 6 of the last 9 Porto away games in the Champions League have produced at least three goals. At odds against, I am backing Leicester City and Porto to combine for at least three goals in this one and I am leaning towards the home team earning another three points to move into a strong position to qualify for the Second Round.
Monaco v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: There are very few times when you really don't understand what the layers are thinking when they price up their markets. For the life of me, I cannot understand why Monaco are the home underdog against Bayer Leverkusen and I think the French side are worthy of a small interest to win this one.
Monaco have made a strong start to their domestic campaign and they have won 4 in a row at home in all competitions. They have also beaten Fenerbahce and Villarreal in the Champions League Qualifiers and two seasons ago beat Bayer Leverkusen 1-0 here in the Group Stage.
It does have to be noted that Bayer Leverkusen had a solid 2-3 win at Mainz last weekend, but that snapped a run of consecutive away defeats. Bayer Leverkusen have now failed to win any of their last 6 away games in the Champions League and they had lost 4 in a row before the 1-1 draw at BATE Borisov in the Group last season.
The German side do have goals in the side which makes them dangerous as Monaco are not likely to score too many themselves, but I think the odds are the wrong way around.
I thought Monaco would come in as the more likely winner and I am going to have a small interest in them keeping the home winning run going with another Champions League win to put themselves in a strong position to move into the Second Round for the second time in three seasons.
Arsenal v Basel Pick: Manchester City and Liverpool might be taking all of the headlines in England, but Arsenal have quietly moved into a decent position in the Premier League. The fixture list should see them continue their run through the international break and into late October, but first they would like to get their Champions League Group commitments moving in the right direction.
A solid point was earned in Paris, but it won't mean anything if Arsenal can't win this home game against Basel. They have lost 3 of their last 5 Champions League games at The Emirates Stadium, but Arsenal are in very strong form and been scoring goals for fun with 11 goals scored in 3 games.
With the talent in the squad, Arsenal are the right favourites in this game, but they can't overlook Basel who have won 11 of 12 games in all competitions. The 1-1 draw with Ludogorets in the Champions League was a big disappointment for Basel, but Arsenal fans have to be aware that this is a club that has had plenty of success against English clubs in recent years.
Basel have lost just 1 of their last 5 away games against English clubs in Europe which includes draws at Liverpool, Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur and a win over Chelsea. That makes them more than capable of current form of upsetting the home team in this one, but I think Arsenal are flying at the moment and are clearly a superior team.
The confidence from the 3-0 win over Chelsea at the weekend should see Arsenal come into this one with some momentum and I think they may break down Basel early and then pull away. There are still some questions about Arsenal from a defensive standpoint, but I fancy them to be too good for Basel on Wednesday and I will back The Gunners to cover the Asian Handicap.
Celtic v Manchester City Pick: This fixture will be described as a 'Battle of Britain' and it seems fair with both Celtic and Manchester City favourites to win the titles in Scotland and England respectively. That is where the similarity ends though as Manchester City can bring in some of the biggest names in world football compared with Celtic who have to try and build their squad in a much different manner.
The layers are expecting that to show up on the pitch on Wednesday especially in the light of the Celtic hammering at Barcelona on Match Day 1. To be fair, anything but a Manchester City win would be a surprise, but losing the talents of Kevin De Bruyne is a blow that can't be underestimated.
On the other hand, Manchester City played and beat Manchester United without Sergio Aguero so they are clearly buying into what Pep Guardiola is selling. They should have too much going forward for Celtic, but I also think the latter are going to be inspired by the home crowd and I expect they can cause one or two problems for a team that has not defended that well.
Celtic have been better at home than on their travels in European football and just months after Guardiola left Barcelona they were beating them 2-1 here. It would be a big surprise if they could do that to his current Manchester City team, but I do think Celtic will score in this one.
With the talent in the away squad even without De Bruyne, I can't imagine they don't score in this one and I am going to back both teams to get on the scoreboard.
Rostov v PSV Eindhoven Pick: This is a Champions League game that might only really have an impact as to which of the clubs gets into the Europa League. Both Rostov and PSV Eindhoven are not really expected to challenge Bayern Munich and Atletico Madrid in the Group and their opening losses to those clubs has suggested that is not likely to change.
I will have to say I am surprised that Rostov are the underdog at home against PSV Eindhoven and probably has much to do with the experience the latter have compared with Rostov in European football. However Rostov hammered Ajax here in the Champions League Qualifiers and I like their chances of getting something from this game.
Rostov also managed to avoid defeat against Anderlecht in the Qualifiers and you can't ignore the fact that PSV Eindhoven have failed to win any of their last 6 away European games. They were also beaten in Russia by CSKA Moscow in the Group Stage last season and I simply can't have PSV Eindhoven as a favourite to win here despite their strong away results to open this season.
While PSV Eindhoven have a strong run of away results, Rostov are unbeaten in 24 at home in all competitions which includes the win over Ajax in the Qualifiers. Having a chance to back them with a start on the Asian Handicap looks very tempting and I do think they are the more likely winners in this match.
I will back Rostov to at least find a way to avoid defeat in this one and keep alive their chances of at least finishing third in the Group.
Fiorentina v Qarabag Pick: When you look at these teams on paper you would have to think the Italian side would be stronger than the one from Azerbaijan especially on home soil.
However Fiorentina have just been having a difficult time of late in turning draws into wins while they have also struggled at home in the Europa League despite getting to the later stages of the competition. The likes of Lech Poznan and Basel have won in Florence so Qarabag won't feel overawed especially as the latter have had tight losses in Tottenham Hotspur, Anderlecht and Monaco last season.
I do think Qarabag will sit back and try to make life as difficult for Fiorentina for as long as possible and perhaps nick a goal on the counter attack. The problem they will have is that Fiorentina have defended well at home in recent games and are yet to concede a goal here this season.
That should give Fiorentina enough of an edge to earn a narrow win in this one and I will back them to win this game by a single goal margin.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva v Southampton Pick: Both Hapoel Be'er Sheva and Southampton made winning starts to their Europa League Group and you have to say that a draw would likely suit both on Match Day 2. However I don't think either will settle for a point knowing that Inter Milan look an improved line up under Frank de Boer and so the three points on offer in this one could give the winner a real chance of progressing through to the Last 32.
There are likely to be some changes to the Southampton line up, but they can't take Hapoel Be'er Sheva for granted after the Israeli Champions won in Milan and also came close to beating Celtic in the Champions League Play Off Round.
Hapoel Be'er Sheva have scored at least twice in their last 4 home games in all competitions, although they will have to penetrate a Southampton team that have kept 4 clean sheets in a row. Most of those games have come at St Mary's though and I think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will cause problems for their visitors, although Charlie Austin is in the kind of form to punish any mistakes the home team may make.
It should be a fun game to watch and I think Hapoel Be'er Sheva will drag Southampton into an intense match. They have shown they can create chances against any team they face at home and I think the home team have every chance of winning this game. The recent Southampton form means I think they play a part in this one too and I will back at least three goals to be shared out by them this week.
Shakhtar Donetsk v Sporting Braga Pick: Both Shakhtar Donetsk and Sporting Braga look to be the strongest teams in this Europa League Group, but only the former proved that in the first round of games in the Group. That means the pressure is on Sporting Braga to earn some sort of result in their visit to the Ukraine, but that might be a tough ask for a team that were beaten 6-1 on aggregate against Shakhtar Donetsk in the Quarter Final of the Europa League a few months ago.
Shakhtar Donetsk are looking to show they are the best team in Ukraine and have made a very strong start to their domestic League. They might not be as strong as recent teams that Shakhtar Donetsk have been able to put out, but they look more than capable at this level rather than the Champions League and have won plenty of games in the Ukraine.
Compare that to Sporting Braga's relatively poor away record in recent European games and I have to favour the home team to beat them for the third time in the space of a few months.
I can't imagine Shakhtar Donetsk are able to rip through Sporting Braga as they did in the 4-0 home win in the Quarter Final, but I do expect them to win with some comfort. I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap and win by a couple of goals at least.
Sparta Prague v Inter Milan Pick: Both Sparta Prague and Inter Milan were beaten on Match Day 1 and that means neither team can afford another loss at this moment if they are going to challenge for one of the top two positions in the Group.
That pressure might suggest we are going to see a tight game where the teams are almost more afraid to lose than to risk winning the game, but I actually believe it might develop into a fixture that produces at least three goals at a big price.
Inter Milan have scored twice in their last couple of away games and Sparta Prague have been conceding goals at home at an alarming rate. In fact 4 of the last 5 Sparta Prague home games has seen them conceded at least twice, but they had also scored two or more in 4 straight games before the 0-2 defeat to Slavia Prague.
Goals have flowed in the last couple of home Sparta Prague games in the Europa League too and I am anticipating both teams trying to earn what could be a vital three points in this one with some attacking football being used. It feels like this could be a 2-1 scoreline either way for me and so backing goals at the prices looks the call.
Genk v Sassuolo Pick: This might be one of the more entertaining games in the Europa League on Thursday on Match Day 2 as both Genk and Sassuolo are likely to take an attacking approach to their game against one another. Sassuolo already have an important three points on the board thanks to an impressive win over Athletic Bilbao, but they can't expect it to get easier against Genk who were unfortunate to lose two weeks ago.
They have been very tough to play at home and Genk will give Sassuolo some issues when they get forward. Recent form is not the best and Genk have looked poor defensively, but Sassuolo have conceded in 4 of their 5 away games in all competitions themselves.
I do think both teams can score in this one with the opportunities they are likely to create and the 1-1 scoreline is perhaps the most dangerous one for my pick.
However I do think both Genk and Sassuolo will know the importance of winning this game and what it could mean for them and so I am not anticipating either settles for that score. I do see a situation where one of these teams will score a second goal and a 2-1 win either way is likely to be the outcome of this one so backing at least three goals to be shared out at odds against.
MY PICKS: CSKA Moscow-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Copenhagen @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)
Leicester City-Porto Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Monaco @ 3.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arsenal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.73 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Celtic-Manchester City BTTS @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Rostov + 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.81 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Fiorentina to Win by One Goal @ 3.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Hapoel Be'er Sheva-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Coral (2 Units)
Shakhtar Donetsk - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.06 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sparta Prague-Inter Milan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)
Genk-Sassuolo Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
September Update: 36-23-1, + 30.98 Units (111 Units Staked, + 27.91% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)
Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)
Tennis Picks 2016 (September 27th)
It was a mixed bag of results on Monday with the picks going 2-2, but I am disappointed Lucie Safarova couldn't stay within the number by making some critical mistakes in the big moments of that match.
This is only the start of the week with the tournaments picking up some pace from now, but I am sticking with the event in Wuhan for my picks on Tuesday.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: With a strong end to the season, Petra Kvitova could end 2016 with the most Tour wins in a single season since 2013. Inconsistent results have blighted her throughout the year, but I do think Kvitova can come through another match with Elina Svitolina and earn her third win against her in the last six weeks.
The wins came in big events at the Olympic Games and the US Open and Kvitova won both fairly comfortably as they came in straight sets. There were a number of break points for both players in the match at the US Open, but the difference was the power that Kvitova could get from the first serve which was making life easier for her in shortening the points.
Svitolina has some form behind her by getting to the Semi Final last week in Tokyo and she did have three really good wins under her belt in that tournament. Going deep into that event does mean that Kvitova is likely to have an edge when it comes to the physical fitness in this match and I do think she is the superior player on the court.
You never know if Kvitova is going to throw in a really poor performance, but she seemingly enjoys the match up with Svitolina and I will look for the Czech player to move into the next Round behind a 64, 64 win.
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: It isn't that long ago since Caroline Wozniacki was rumoured to be thinking about retirement as the World Ranking plummeted. A strong showing at the US Open was unexpected, but Wozniacki has backed that up by winning the title in Tokyo last week and a strong run this week would see her back into the top 20 in the Rankings.
A solid win over Samantha Stosur in the First Round has kept the positive run going, but this is going to be a test for Wozniacki when she takes on Katerina Siniakova who has won three matches here in Wuhan already. Siniakova also reached the Final in Osaka since the US Open before falling short.
However it has been a memorable season for Siniakova already in 2016 and she has some under-rated power off the ground that might surprise Wozniacki at times. I think the key to this match will be the fact that Wozniacki can get enough balls back in play which will frustrate a young player that perhaps isn't used to having to hit so close to the lines as often as Wozniacki will force her to.
That will lead to errors and Wozniacki is playing a little more aggressive which should see her get into a position where she can keep the winning run going behind a 64, 63 success.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: I would love to see Johanna Konta finish in the top 10 of the World Rankings to end 2016, but I am sure the British player has bigger aims and that is playing in the End of Year Championships. Both will only be achieved with some big runs over the next month and this tournament in Wuhan is providing plenty of Ranking points for her to pick up the rest of the week.
Konta hasn't played a lot of tennis since the US Open and her win over Annika Beck in the First Round is the only competitive match she has had since a surprising loss in the Fourth Round at Flushing Meadows. That is in complete contrast to Shuai Zhang who has reached two Semi Finals in back to back weeks before coming from a set down to beat Shuai Peng on Monday.
If Zhang is serving well, she can be a real threat on the tennis court as the rest of her game seems to pick up confidence from that shot. However she is going to have some issues dealing with Konta who is fairly solid off both wings and has a very good serve of her own which sets up plenty of cheap points.
When they played at the Australian Open, Zhang's run of wins got the better of her physically, but I do think Konta is the better player. I think Zhang can fall away mentally when things start getting a little challenging on the court while Konta is a much more emotionally secure player these days and I think she moves through 64, 63 in this one.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Winning the French Open was a huge achievement for Garbine Muguruza and will always make 2016 a memorable year for her personally. However I am looking at the cold hard results and this looks set to be the fewest number of wins on the Tour for her in a single season since 2013.
Muguruza is just 26-15 on the season and has won at least 35 matches on the Tour in each of the last two seasons. The Spaniard may still reach that mark with some good performances, but she is just 8-6 since winning the French Open as Muguruza has struggled mentally with the tag of being a Grand Slam Champion.
Even with that in mind, I do think Muguruza is going to have too much for Jelena Jankovic who I consider to be on a downward trend in her own career. The recent form shows Jankovic reached the Final in Guangzhou last week and has already won a match here, but she has struggled in 2016 for consistency and this looks set to be the fewest number of wins she has had on the Tour since 2003.
The movement is not as strong as it once was and in turn Jankovic has taken some pretty heavy losses on the Singles Tour this season. Her serve can still be decent on its day, but Muguruza brings the power to the court and the conditions must suit having reached the Final here last year. I am anticipating a similar score to the one these players had when they played in the Fed Cup and that is Muguruza winning 63, 64 to move into the next Round.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.5% Yield)
This is only the start of the week with the tournaments picking up some pace from now, but I am sticking with the event in Wuhan for my picks on Tuesday.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Elina Svitolina: With a strong end to the season, Petra Kvitova could end 2016 with the most Tour wins in a single season since 2013. Inconsistent results have blighted her throughout the year, but I do think Kvitova can come through another match with Elina Svitolina and earn her third win against her in the last six weeks.
The wins came in big events at the Olympic Games and the US Open and Kvitova won both fairly comfortably as they came in straight sets. There were a number of break points for both players in the match at the US Open, but the difference was the power that Kvitova could get from the first serve which was making life easier for her in shortening the points.
Svitolina has some form behind her by getting to the Semi Final last week in Tokyo and she did have three really good wins under her belt in that tournament. Going deep into that event does mean that Kvitova is likely to have an edge when it comes to the physical fitness in this match and I do think she is the superior player on the court.
You never know if Kvitova is going to throw in a really poor performance, but she seemingly enjoys the match up with Svitolina and I will look for the Czech player to move into the next Round behind a 64, 64 win.
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 games v Katerina Siniakova: It isn't that long ago since Caroline Wozniacki was rumoured to be thinking about retirement as the World Ranking plummeted. A strong showing at the US Open was unexpected, but Wozniacki has backed that up by winning the title in Tokyo last week and a strong run this week would see her back into the top 20 in the Rankings.
A solid win over Samantha Stosur in the First Round has kept the positive run going, but this is going to be a test for Wozniacki when she takes on Katerina Siniakova who has won three matches here in Wuhan already. Siniakova also reached the Final in Osaka since the US Open before falling short.
However it has been a memorable season for Siniakova already in 2016 and she has some under-rated power off the ground that might surprise Wozniacki at times. I think the key to this match will be the fact that Wozniacki can get enough balls back in play which will frustrate a young player that perhaps isn't used to having to hit so close to the lines as often as Wozniacki will force her to.
That will lead to errors and Wozniacki is playing a little more aggressive which should see her get into a position where she can keep the winning run going behind a 64, 63 success.
Johanna Konta - 4.5 games v Shuai Zhang: I would love to see Johanna Konta finish in the top 10 of the World Rankings to end 2016, but I am sure the British player has bigger aims and that is playing in the End of Year Championships. Both will only be achieved with some big runs over the next month and this tournament in Wuhan is providing plenty of Ranking points for her to pick up the rest of the week.
Konta hasn't played a lot of tennis since the US Open and her win over Annika Beck in the First Round is the only competitive match she has had since a surprising loss in the Fourth Round at Flushing Meadows. That is in complete contrast to Shuai Zhang who has reached two Semi Finals in back to back weeks before coming from a set down to beat Shuai Peng on Monday.
If Zhang is serving well, she can be a real threat on the tennis court as the rest of her game seems to pick up confidence from that shot. However she is going to have some issues dealing with Konta who is fairly solid off both wings and has a very good serve of her own which sets up plenty of cheap points.
When they played at the Australian Open, Zhang's run of wins got the better of her physically, but I do think Konta is the better player. I think Zhang can fall away mentally when things start getting a little challenging on the court while Konta is a much more emotionally secure player these days and I think she moves through 64, 63 in this one.
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 games v Jelena Jankovic: Winning the French Open was a huge achievement for Garbine Muguruza and will always make 2016 a memorable year for her personally. However I am looking at the cold hard results and this looks set to be the fewest number of wins on the Tour for her in a single season since 2013.
Muguruza is just 26-15 on the season and has won at least 35 matches on the Tour in each of the last two seasons. The Spaniard may still reach that mark with some good performances, but she is just 8-6 since winning the French Open as Muguruza has struggled mentally with the tag of being a Grand Slam Champion.
Even with that in mind, I do think Muguruza is going to have too much for Jelena Jankovic who I consider to be on a downward trend in her own career. The recent form shows Jankovic reached the Final in Guangzhou last week and has already won a match here, but she has struggled in 2016 for consistency and this looks set to be the fewest number of wins she has had on the Tour since 2003.
The movement is not as strong as it once was and in turn Jankovic has taken some pretty heavy losses on the Singles Tour this season. Her serve can still be decent on its day, but Muguruza brings the power to the court and the conditions must suit having reached the Final here last year. I am anticipating a similar score to the one these players had when they played in the Fed Cup and that is Muguruza winning 63, 64 to move into the next Round.
MY PICKS: Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Wozniacki - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Johanna Konta - 4.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Garbine Muguruza - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-2, - 0.52 Units (8 Units Staked, - 6.5% Yield)
Monday, 26 September 2016
Tennis Picks 2016 (September 26th)
The tennis season enters the final six-eight weeks of the 2016 year and that means one final swing through Asia and Europe for the players on the two Tours. Most of the big names will make sure they continue playing as both the Tour Finals are upcoming, while this week we have one of the bigger events left on the schedule before that at the WTA Wuhan tournament.
Most of the big names on the WTA Tour are in action through the week in Wuhan, but there are three other tournaments that are also being played with two of those on the ATP Tour.
I will have picks through the week if I find any matches that are appealing.
Shuai Zhang - 3.5 games v Shuai Peng: Two compatriots will play one another in their home country in one of the bigger tournaments played in China. It is Shuai Zhang who is far higher in the World Rankings thanks to injuries suffered by Shuai Peng which has seen her own Ranking drop outside the top 200, but that is not reason enough for this pick.
Instead I will point out the superior form that Zhang has been showing since the US Open as she has recorded back to back tournaments with Semi Final runs. Her confidence is much stronger this year heading into the Asian swing thanks to some strong runs in 2016 and Zhang has put together some impressive wins over the last couple of weeks.
On the other hand, Peng has been playing at a lower level than her opponent and has been in a poor run since returning from injury. I do think Peng's movement around the court can extract some errors from the Zhang game, but she will have issues protecting the serve especially with the power she will need to absorb from the other side of the court.
While there will be some frustrating moments filled with mistakes from the Zhang racquet, I do think she will recover deficits in breaks and ultimately will prove a little too strong for her compatriot with a 64, 63 win.
Sara Errani + 2.5 games v Barbora Strycova: Simply reading the head to head record between players is not good enough when making a pick in a match, but there are some which are heavily slanted in one direction that it is hard to ignore. If you look at the way 2016 has gone for Sara Errani and Barbora Strycova, I am not surprised that the latter is the favourite in this First Round match.
However it is Errani who has won seven of their previous eight matches which includes both matches played in 2016. In those two matches, Strycova has won a grand total of SIX games and there has to be something about the Errani game that she can't get her head around.
We know the Italian can play with plenty of variation and is capable of getting to the net, while I think her movement around the court is still good enough to force Strycova to hit closer to the lines and force mistakes. Strycova has a similar style of play to Errani as she looks for opponents mistakes, but she simply hasn't been able to stay in the moment as much as Errani in the long, grinding rallies.
It might be the emotional factor at play here with Strycova more likely to lose her cool than Errani under pressure and I will take the games with the Italian to keep her dominance over Strycova moving through another match.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Mirjana Lucic-Baroni: There hasn't been much sign of either of these players since the US Open so you can't really point to too much recent form for either. Outside of the US Open performance, there hasn't been too much for either Caroline Garcia or Mirjana Lucic-Baroni to shout about as they begin their Asian swing on the Tour.
It is Garcia who has dominated the head to head thanks to an ability to get more out of the first serve than Lucic-Baroni and that might be a difference maker again in this one. It is the Frenchwoman who has won all four previous matches between the players and the majority of those matches has seen her win a significantly higher percentage of first serve points than Lucic-Baroni.
I am still waiting for Garcia to show the consistency that will see her get closer to fulfilling the potential that so many believe she has. When you watch Garcia play you see all of the tools to become a threat to win any tournament she enters, but she can sometimes wander away mentally which sees her opponents get back into matches.
If she does that here, she will be beaten by Lucic-Baroni, but I think the match up works well for Garcia. She should have the edge in power off the ground and also from behind the first serve which should see Garcia edge past Lucic-Baroni in two tough sets as she moves into the Second Round with a 75, 64 win.
Lucie Safarova + 3.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: There are a couple of Second Round matches to be played on Monday and one of those is between two compatriots from the Czech Republic. It isn't that long ago that Lucie Safarova would be coming into a match with Karolina Pliskova as the favourite to win, but that isn't the case in Wuhan and hasn't been the case in their last three matches.
However all of those matches have been competitive and it is Safarova who won the most recent one in Prague in the build up to the French Open. The Pliskova run to the Final at the US Open might have boosted her confidence levels, but backing up big performances in Grand Slam events can be hard for those having those experiences for the first time.
Unsurprisingly Pliskova was beaten in her first match since reaching the US Open Final, but she has a big serve and can cause problems when that shot is working alone. The hard courts in Asia tend to be a little slower than the North American ones that these players have been playing on, and I do think the slower court might give Safarova the edge in the match.
She too has a very good serve which can provide cheap points when on her game, but I think the slower courts will also take something away from Pliskova who likes to play a lot of short rallies. I am expecting this match to be very close and this looks like too many games for Safarova to be getting in this one.
MY PICKS: Shuai Zhang - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sara Errani + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Most of the big names on the WTA Tour are in action through the week in Wuhan, but there are three other tournaments that are also being played with two of those on the ATP Tour.
I will have picks through the week if I find any matches that are appealing.
Shuai Zhang - 3.5 games v Shuai Peng: Two compatriots will play one another in their home country in one of the bigger tournaments played in China. It is Shuai Zhang who is far higher in the World Rankings thanks to injuries suffered by Shuai Peng which has seen her own Ranking drop outside the top 200, but that is not reason enough for this pick.
Instead I will point out the superior form that Zhang has been showing since the US Open as she has recorded back to back tournaments with Semi Final runs. Her confidence is much stronger this year heading into the Asian swing thanks to some strong runs in 2016 and Zhang has put together some impressive wins over the last couple of weeks.
On the other hand, Peng has been playing at a lower level than her opponent and has been in a poor run since returning from injury. I do think Peng's movement around the court can extract some errors from the Zhang game, but she will have issues protecting the serve especially with the power she will need to absorb from the other side of the court.
While there will be some frustrating moments filled with mistakes from the Zhang racquet, I do think she will recover deficits in breaks and ultimately will prove a little too strong for her compatriot with a 64, 63 win.
Sara Errani + 2.5 games v Barbora Strycova: Simply reading the head to head record between players is not good enough when making a pick in a match, but there are some which are heavily slanted in one direction that it is hard to ignore. If you look at the way 2016 has gone for Sara Errani and Barbora Strycova, I am not surprised that the latter is the favourite in this First Round match.
However it is Errani who has won seven of their previous eight matches which includes both matches played in 2016. In those two matches, Strycova has won a grand total of SIX games and there has to be something about the Errani game that she can't get her head around.
We know the Italian can play with plenty of variation and is capable of getting to the net, while I think her movement around the court is still good enough to force Strycova to hit closer to the lines and force mistakes. Strycova has a similar style of play to Errani as she looks for opponents mistakes, but she simply hasn't been able to stay in the moment as much as Errani in the long, grinding rallies.
It might be the emotional factor at play here with Strycova more likely to lose her cool than Errani under pressure and I will take the games with the Italian to keep her dominance over Strycova moving through another match.
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 games v Mirjana Lucic-Baroni: There hasn't been much sign of either of these players since the US Open so you can't really point to too much recent form for either. Outside of the US Open performance, there hasn't been too much for either Caroline Garcia or Mirjana Lucic-Baroni to shout about as they begin their Asian swing on the Tour.
It is Garcia who has dominated the head to head thanks to an ability to get more out of the first serve than Lucic-Baroni and that might be a difference maker again in this one. It is the Frenchwoman who has won all four previous matches between the players and the majority of those matches has seen her win a significantly higher percentage of first serve points than Lucic-Baroni.
I am still waiting for Garcia to show the consistency that will see her get closer to fulfilling the potential that so many believe she has. When you watch Garcia play you see all of the tools to become a threat to win any tournament she enters, but she can sometimes wander away mentally which sees her opponents get back into matches.
If she does that here, she will be beaten by Lucic-Baroni, but I think the match up works well for Garcia. She should have the edge in power off the ground and also from behind the first serve which should see Garcia edge past Lucic-Baroni in two tough sets as she moves into the Second Round with a 75, 64 win.
Lucie Safarova + 3.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: There are a couple of Second Round matches to be played on Monday and one of those is between two compatriots from the Czech Republic. It isn't that long ago that Lucie Safarova would be coming into a match with Karolina Pliskova as the favourite to win, but that isn't the case in Wuhan and hasn't been the case in their last three matches.
However all of those matches have been competitive and it is Safarova who won the most recent one in Prague in the build up to the French Open. The Pliskova run to the Final at the US Open might have boosted her confidence levels, but backing up big performances in Grand Slam events can be hard for those having those experiences for the first time.
Unsurprisingly Pliskova was beaten in her first match since reaching the US Open Final, but she has a big serve and can cause problems when that shot is working alone. The hard courts in Asia tend to be a little slower than the North American ones that these players have been playing on, and I do think the slower court might give Safarova the edge in the match.
She too has a very good serve which can provide cheap points when on her game, but I think the slower courts will also take something away from Pliskova who likes to play a lot of short rallies. I am expecting this match to be very close and this looks like too many games for Safarova to be getting in this one.
MY PICKS: Shuai Zhang - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sara Errani + 2.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Caroline Garcia - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Lucie Safarova + 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Season 2016: - 12.56 Units (1643 Units Staked, - 0.01% Yield)
Season 2015: - 21.81 Units (1812 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2014: + 45.05 Units (1586.5 Units Staked, + 2.84% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Saturday, 24 September 2016
NFL Week 3 Picks 2016 (September 22-26)
Coming back from a holiday always gives me the blues, but you have to get back going with normal life. I will say it was great watching the NFL in Vegas even if the games start at 10am on a Sunday morning (Saturday nights in Vegas are unbelievably good).
The reaction of so many when Denver stripped Andrew Luck and scored a front door cover with less than two minutes on the clock was the same as mine as it cost me a second winning week. The Broncos had no right to cover against Indianapolis in what was a close game until the final two minutes and it was the Defensive unit that won the game for them.
Hopefully Week 3 won't see that kind of bad break and I can get back to winning ways.
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This spread looks a little smelly when you think of the way both the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills are perceived, but I can't help but buy it. I can't imagine how Arizona would be favoured by less than a Touchdown in this game when you consider how bad Buffalo have been on both sides of the ball even if the Bills have had a few more days to prepare for the game.
Greg Roman was surprisingly released as the Offensive Co-Ordinator in the wake of the loss to the New York Jets, especially when you think Buffalo scored 31 points in that game. The Defensive unit let them down and both Ryan brothers are on the hot seat coming into this game as the Bills continue to struggle.
Buffalo have been outplayed in both losses this season and they are going to have it tough again when you think they will struggle to run the ball. LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor have plenty of mobility behind Center, but Buffalo are averaging just 3.5 yards per rush attempt and the Cardinals Defensive Line has proven they can shut down teams in those situations.
This will be a game in which Taylor is going to need his legs to escape the pressure that Arizona bring up front, but he can't afford to make mistakes throwing the ball against this Secondary. Under pressure that can happen and Buffalo are missing Sammy Watkins too which is going to make it tough for them to move the ball with any consistency in this one.
Some out there have suggested that Carson Palmer is on the decline, but he didn't play that badly last week in the win over Tampa Bay at home. I still think Palmer has something in the tank for an Arizona team in win now mode, and I think Palmer will have a big game against Buffalo.
He might be under pressure up front, but the Buffalo Secondary has had some big holes and I think the Cardinals can make them pay with the Receivers they have. David Johnson is someone you can check down to coming out of the backfield and I think Arizona will have more success moving the chains on Sunday than their counterparts.
One concern will be trying to run the ball effectively and protecting Palmer is another, but Buffalo will need turnovers to win this game. They might get some chances with Arizona throwing the ball around, but Palmer should have a big enough game to come through.
The Cardinals are 12-1 against the spread in road games against teams with losing records and they are a strong road favourite under Bruce Arians going 8-3 against the spread in that spot since 2013. Being 0-2 will keep Buffalo focused rather than looking ahead to New England next week, and they are 9-3 against the spread as the home underdog since 2013, but they were beaten easily in that spot last week.
I am not sure that Buffalo might be falling out of love with Rex Ryan and I think Arizona can make them pay and move back into a winning record.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers Pick: How many other 2-0 teams would be considered such an underdog as the Minnesota Vikings are this week? However that is the case with Minnesota Vikings because of the injuries they have suffered in the first month of the season with a starting Quarter Back already out for the season and now joined by Adrian Peterson, the starting Running Back, and have some issues on the Offensive Line.
The fact they are taking on the NFC representative from the last Super Bowl, on the road no less, is also factoring into the spread this week.
Sam Bradford might only recently have come into the Vikings locker room, but he looked very comfortable with his new teammates in the win over the Green Bay Packers. Bradford made some big time throws and has locked in with Stefon Diggs, and he might have had a chance to follow that up IF Peterson had not been ruled out for some time.
Now the Panthers don't have to worry about loading the box and stopping Peterson which might have seen Bradford attack a Secondary which has underperformed so far. Instead the Panthers can concentrate on getting better results from the Secondary and feel they can slow down the rushing Offense with the Offensive Line already struggling to open holes for Peterson.
Carolina should be able to put plenty of pressure on Bradford, but they might have their own issues running the ball. Jonathan Stewart is out and Minnesota have shut down Tennessee and Green Bay from running the ball against mobile Quarter Backs so even Cam Newton might find himself bottled up in this one.
While the Panthers have some big Receivers who can make plays for them, Newton will have to be able to handle the pressure that Minnesota are likely to get on him. He has not been that clean in his play just yet, but Carolina have been playing well at home and I think the entire squad will be looking for a big performance after the troubles in Charlotte this week.
They have been a good home favourite to back of late as they are now 13-4-2 against the spread in that position since 2013. This Minnesota Defensive unit is more than legit, but I think they might struggle to score too many points themselves and I can see Carolina pulling away late thanks to some big plays from Cam Newton and I like them to cover this number.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: After losing a game to an injury-riddled Minnesota Vikings team in Week 2, the questions about the Green Bay Packers have been coming thick and fast. There is even some suggestion that Aaron Rodgers is on the decline with statistics from recent games not exactly flattering one of the best Quarter Backs in the NFL.
Now I am sure Rodgers will want you to 'R-E-L-A-X', but the questions about the Packers will only double if they were to fall to 1-2 this week. Injuries in the Detroit Lions Defensive unit could make things a little more comfortable for the Packers this week, but their Offensive unit has to find a way to earn more consistency.
Being back at home might help too, but it could all begin for Rodgers by Eddie Lacy and James Starks running the ball more efficiently than they have. They should have a chance to establish the run, especially as Detroit are giving up 5.1 yards per carry in their two games, and that might open things up for Rodgers.
Ziggy Ansah is set to miss out and that takes away some of the pass rush pressure that Detroit would have been looking to get on Rodgers. Green Bay's Offensive Line have struggled in protection at times, but missing Ansah might mean the holes in the Secondary look wider than normal. However, Green Bay are yet to get on the same page when it comes to the passing game and failing to do that again will give the Lions a chance to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
It won't be easy for Detroit who can't expect to run the ball all too effectively against this Defensive Line which will put more pressure on Matt Stafford at Quarter Back. Ameer Abdullah is out, but Theo Riddick could still do some damage from out of the backfield which might be the best way any 'run' game is established for Detroit.
Stafford might not have a fit Clay Matthews to deal with which will be useful behind this Offensive Line which has not protected the Quarter Back as well as they would have liked. However giving Stafford time means he can hit big Receivers downfield as Green Bay have some issues in the Secondary which won't have been helped by Sam Shield having to pass concussion tests before he is allowed to play.
I think that will see Detroit moving the chains and this looks a lot of points for them to be given. The Packers have had a losing record as the home favourite in Division games in two of the last three years and they were beaten by Detroit here last season.
If the Offense is still struggling to find a way to consistently move the chains, I do think the Lions can make these points look very useful and I will back them to cover even in a losing effort.
MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 7 Points@ 1.83 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Oakland Raiders - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (2 Units)
San Diego Chargers + 1.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)
week 1: 4-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)
The reaction of so many when Denver stripped Andrew Luck and scored a front door cover with less than two minutes on the clock was the same as mine as it cost me a second winning week. The Broncos had no right to cover against Indianapolis in what was a close game until the final two minutes and it was the Defensive unit that won the game for them.
Hopefully Week 3 won't see that kind of bad break and I can get back to winning ways.
Arizona Cardinals @ Buffalo Bills Pick: This spread looks a little smelly when you think of the way both the Arizona Cardinals and Buffalo Bills are perceived, but I can't help but buy it. I can't imagine how Arizona would be favoured by less than a Touchdown in this game when you consider how bad Buffalo have been on both sides of the ball even if the Bills have had a few more days to prepare for the game.
Greg Roman was surprisingly released as the Offensive Co-Ordinator in the wake of the loss to the New York Jets, especially when you think Buffalo scored 31 points in that game. The Defensive unit let them down and both Ryan brothers are on the hot seat coming into this game as the Bills continue to struggle.
Buffalo have been outplayed in both losses this season and they are going to have it tough again when you think they will struggle to run the ball. LeSean McCoy and Tyrod Taylor have plenty of mobility behind Center, but Buffalo are averaging just 3.5 yards per rush attempt and the Cardinals Defensive Line has proven they can shut down teams in those situations.
This will be a game in which Taylor is going to need his legs to escape the pressure that Arizona bring up front, but he can't afford to make mistakes throwing the ball against this Secondary. Under pressure that can happen and Buffalo are missing Sammy Watkins too which is going to make it tough for them to move the ball with any consistency in this one.
Some out there have suggested that Carson Palmer is on the decline, but he didn't play that badly last week in the win over Tampa Bay at home. I still think Palmer has something in the tank for an Arizona team in win now mode, and I think Palmer will have a big game against Buffalo.
He might be under pressure up front, but the Buffalo Secondary has had some big holes and I think the Cardinals can make them pay with the Receivers they have. David Johnson is someone you can check down to coming out of the backfield and I think Arizona will have more success moving the chains on Sunday than their counterparts.
One concern will be trying to run the ball effectively and protecting Palmer is another, but Buffalo will need turnovers to win this game. They might get some chances with Arizona throwing the ball around, but Palmer should have a big enough game to come through.
The Cardinals are 12-1 against the spread in road games against teams with losing records and they are a strong road favourite under Bruce Arians going 8-3 against the spread in that spot since 2013. Being 0-2 will keep Buffalo focused rather than looking ahead to New England next week, and they are 9-3 against the spread as the home underdog since 2013, but they were beaten easily in that spot last week.
I am not sure that Buffalo might be falling out of love with Rex Ryan and I think Arizona can make them pay and move back into a winning record.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers Pick: How many other 2-0 teams would be considered such an underdog as the Minnesota Vikings are this week? However that is the case with Minnesota Vikings because of the injuries they have suffered in the first month of the season with a starting Quarter Back already out for the season and now joined by Adrian Peterson, the starting Running Back, and have some issues on the Offensive Line.
The fact they are taking on the NFC representative from the last Super Bowl, on the road no less, is also factoring into the spread this week.
Sam Bradford might only recently have come into the Vikings locker room, but he looked very comfortable with his new teammates in the win over the Green Bay Packers. Bradford made some big time throws and has locked in with Stefon Diggs, and he might have had a chance to follow that up IF Peterson had not been ruled out for some time.
Now the Panthers don't have to worry about loading the box and stopping Peterson which might have seen Bradford attack a Secondary which has underperformed so far. Instead the Panthers can concentrate on getting better results from the Secondary and feel they can slow down the rushing Offense with the Offensive Line already struggling to open holes for Peterson.
Carolina should be able to put plenty of pressure on Bradford, but they might have their own issues running the ball. Jonathan Stewart is out and Minnesota have shut down Tennessee and Green Bay from running the ball against mobile Quarter Backs so even Cam Newton might find himself bottled up in this one.
While the Panthers have some big Receivers who can make plays for them, Newton will have to be able to handle the pressure that Minnesota are likely to get on him. He has not been that clean in his play just yet, but Carolina have been playing well at home and I think the entire squad will be looking for a big performance after the troubles in Charlotte this week.
They have been a good home favourite to back of late as they are now 13-4-2 against the spread in that position since 2013. This Minnesota Defensive unit is more than legit, but I think they might struggle to score too many points themselves and I can see Carolina pulling away late thanks to some big plays from Cam Newton and I like them to cover this number.
Detroit Lions @ Green Bay Packers Pick: After losing a game to an injury-riddled Minnesota Vikings team in Week 2, the questions about the Green Bay Packers have been coming thick and fast. There is even some suggestion that Aaron Rodgers is on the decline with statistics from recent games not exactly flattering one of the best Quarter Backs in the NFL.
Now I am sure Rodgers will want you to 'R-E-L-A-X', but the questions about the Packers will only double if they were to fall to 1-2 this week. Injuries in the Detroit Lions Defensive unit could make things a little more comfortable for the Packers this week, but their Offensive unit has to find a way to earn more consistency.
Being back at home might help too, but it could all begin for Rodgers by Eddie Lacy and James Starks running the ball more efficiently than they have. They should have a chance to establish the run, especially as Detroit are giving up 5.1 yards per carry in their two games, and that might open things up for Rodgers.
Ziggy Ansah is set to miss out and that takes away some of the pass rush pressure that Detroit would have been looking to get on Rodgers. Green Bay's Offensive Line have struggled in protection at times, but missing Ansah might mean the holes in the Secondary look wider than normal. However, Green Bay are yet to get on the same page when it comes to the passing game and failing to do that again will give the Lions a chance to keep up with them on the scoreboard.
It won't be easy for Detroit who can't expect to run the ball all too effectively against this Defensive Line which will put more pressure on Matt Stafford at Quarter Back. Ameer Abdullah is out, but Theo Riddick could still do some damage from out of the backfield which might be the best way any 'run' game is established for Detroit.
Stafford might not have a fit Clay Matthews to deal with which will be useful behind this Offensive Line which has not protected the Quarter Back as well as they would have liked. However giving Stafford time means he can hit big Receivers downfield as Green Bay have some issues in the Secondary which won't have been helped by Sam Shield having to pass concussion tests before he is allowed to play.
I think that will see Detroit moving the chains and this looks a lot of points for them to be given. The Packers have had a losing record as the home favourite in Division games in two of the last three years and they were beaten by Detroit here last season.
If the Offense is still struggling to find a way to consistently move the chains, I do think the Lions can make these points look very useful and I will back them to cover even in a losing effort.
MY PICKS: Arizona Cardinals - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Carolina Panthers - 7 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 7 Points
Week 2: 5-5, - 0.70 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.50% Yield)
week 1: 4-3-1, + 0.29 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.93% Yield)
College Football Week 4 Picks 2016 (September 24th)
I can't believe we have already reached Week 4 of the College Football season.
This week I am going to simply put up the picks I have from the games to be played through Saturday as I've just come back from my trip to the West Coast of the United States. Week 5's thread will be back to the usual breakdowns of the picks and why I have made them.
The last two weeks have been tough with little luck and poor picks mixed in to make it a poor start to the season. Hopefully I can begin to get that turned around in Week 4.
MY PICKS: Mississippi Rebels - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys + 8 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 3 Points @ 1.87 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 3: 4-6, - 2.23 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)
Week 1: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Season 2016: 14-16, - 2.97 Units (30 Units Staked, - 9.9% Yield)
This week I am going to simply put up the picks I have from the games to be played through Saturday as I've just come back from my trip to the West Coast of the United States. Week 5's thread will be back to the usual breakdowns of the picks and why I have made them.
The last two weeks have been tough with little luck and poor picks mixed in to make it a poor start to the season. Hopefully I can begin to get that turned around in Week 4.
MY PICKS: Mississippi Rebels - 7 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines - 17.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
LSU Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Oklahoma State Cowboys + 8 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
South Carolina Gamecocks + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Nebraska Cornhuskers - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Stanford Cardinal - 3 Points @ 1.87 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Week 3: 4-6, - 2.23 Units (10 Units Staked, - 22.3% Yield)
Week 2: 4-5, - 1.32 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.67% Yield)
Week 1: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)
Season 2016: 14-16, - 2.97 Units (30 Units Staked, - 9.9% Yield)
Season 2015: 87-77-2, + 2.77 Units (166 Units Staked, + 1.67% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)
Season 2014: 75-82-2, - 13.39 Units (172 Units Staked, - 7.78% Yield)
Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)
Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)
Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)
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