On Friday 20th June, we are going to see the Wimbledon draw for the first time as the third Grand Slam of the season is just days away from getting underway. That will be the biggest story from the tennis world over the next twenty-four hours, but there are also some big matches to be played as the tournaments from this week reach the final four stage.
Unfortunately, both Eastbourne and Hertogenbosch have been affected by rain meaning they have some Quarter Finals to be completed on Friday and that means double duty for those winners with the Semi Finals scheduled for later in the day.
I was particularly surprised that the schedulers at Eastbourne decided to switch another WTA match before the Feliciano Lopez match against Jeremy Chardy, particularly as they did have a court free for the other match and that left the defending Champion waiting until Friday to play his Quarter Final and potential Semi Final.
Richard Gasquet - 2.5 games v Denis Istomin: Richard Gasquet has been struggling with an injury heading into the French Open, but clearly must be feeling a little better having competed at Halle and now in Eastbourne ahead of the tournament at Wimbledon.
Gasquet has played well in his two wins this week and I think his game is well suited to the grass courts and may give him an edge against Denis Istomin.
However, I have to respect Istomin for the fact that he has a decent serve that can give him some cheap points and put the pressure on Gasquet. That makes this Semi Final a little more difficult to judge, but I do think the Frenchman is the better grass court player and will come through with a 76, 64 win.
Angelique Kerber - 1.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: Angelique Kerber has gotten the better of Caroline Wozniacki in four of their last five matches and I think she is the better grass court player of the two and can win this Semi Final.
Kerber has a decent serve, moves well on the grass courts and has penetrating groundstrokes which makes her a very dangerous opponent on these courts.
The movement is something that not all players really feel comfortable with on grass, but Kerber has enjoyed success in the past and was a dominant winner over Ekaterina Makarova in the Quarter Finals.
On the other hand, Caroline Wozniacki is going to have to work hard to hold serve in this match and has come off a long Quarter Final which had to be mentally and physically draining. Recent successes for Kerber will give her more confidence and I like her to move into the Final at Eastbourne.
MY PICKS: Richard Gasquet - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 1.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units) Already advised and postponed due to rain.
Nicolas Mahut @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units) Already advised but match postponed due to rain.
Weekly Update: 4-9, - 10.94 Units (26 Units Staked, - 42.08% Yield)
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Friday, 20 June 2014
Thursday, 19 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 19th)
The Wimbledon draw is only a day away now after the seedings were announced and there weren't any surprises that the likes of Andy Murray were moved up from their current World Ranking. Wimbledon is the only Slam that takes surface results into consideration and that also meant Novak Djokovic, despite losing the French Open Final, will be at the top of the draw and Rafael Nadal, the current World Number 1, is going to be the Number 2 Seed.
Djokovic admitted his surprise at that change between the two top players in the world, but it made sense when considering the recent grass court success of the two players- Rafael Nadal hasn't made a strong run at Wimbledon since 2011 and has been beaten in the Second Round in 2012 and the First Round last season so his recent performances on grass cost him the top Seed.
Andy Murray's move up the seeding wasn't a real surprise considering he has arguably been the best grass court player over the last two years, and it could be a key to whether he can defend the Wimbledon title he won twelve months ago. Instead of having to face possibly three out of Stan Wawrinka/Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic/Rafael Nadal, the Number 3 Seed gives Murray the opportunity to move through the draw with one less major obstacle to beat if the seedings hold up.
It has been another tough week for the picks and I am not sure what has gone wrong to be honest- I have felt a little exhausted seeing results going the wrong way, and it has been a ridiculously poor seven days with bad breaks coupled with bad breaks. Every time I have felt I have hit a low, another day goes by with another loss and I am at pains to work it out.
The tournaments in Eastbourne and Hertogenbosch have both reached the Quarter Final round as players begin to look towards the next Grand Slam of the season, although the majority of names left in the draws are unlikely to be major threats next week.
Sam Querrey v Julien Benneteau: Sam Querrey has fallen far from his best over the last twelve months, but the grass courts have usually been where he has had success and I can see him progressing to the Semi Final.
He is facing the always tough Julien Benneteau who has given Roger Federer all he can handle on the surface and has the solid game that could pose plenty of problems for Querrey if the American is not on his game.
Querrey's serve should give him some easier points of the two players, but the conditions in Eastbourne are not as warm as in London last week so he will need to do more than simply relying on a big serve. However, he should get a few opportunities to break serve if the scoreboard pressure pays off, but Querrey hasn't been a source of reliance when it comes to winning matches.
In saying that, I don't think he should be the underdog in this match and I will back him to win in possibly three sets.
Jeremy Chardy v Feliciano Lopez: Credit to Feliciano Lopez for battling through his Second Round match against Tobias Kamke, but it was a long match for the defending Champion at Eastbourne as he comes off the success of reaching the Final at Queens last week. Coming off a long week and with Wimbledon coming up fast, there is every chance that someone like Jeremy Chardy could take away whatever Lopez has left in the tank.
Tiredness has to be a factor while Jeremy Chardy has a decent serve and the groundstrokes to be a tough competitor to play on the faster surfaces including the grass courts.
If the Frenchman can serve well, Chardy will put a lot of pressure on Lopez who has to be feeling things physically and mentally after his recent exertions. He is a very strong grass court player, but the week has to take its toll eventually and I do think Chardy is in a position to take advantage.
Chardy has to find a way to push this match into a third set at the very least as that could be enough to see him through against a player that begins to feel all the tennis he has played and I think the Frenchman can come through.
Nicolas Mahut v Roberto Bautista-Agut: Nicolas Mahut is the defending Champion in Hertogenbosch and he can take another step towards winning the title again here if he can get past Roberto Bautista-Agut.
The dying art of the serve-volley is still the staple of Mahut's game and it works very effectively on the grass courts when the Frenchman really comes into his own. He should be able to keep the pressure on Bautista-Agut who is able to defend very well, but could be under the cosh as he tries to pass Mahut at the net and also to ensure that he isn't on the front foot in the match.
Bautista-Agut has had a couple of good wins already this week, but hasn't had a lot of success on the grass courts and doesn't have the big shot to quickly end the points on this kind of surface.
I do believe Mahut has enough to keep Bautista-Agut concentrating on what he is doing rather than letting the Spaniard play his own game and that might be enough for Mahut to come through.
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: There has been a couple of good wins put into the books by Caroline Wozniacki who may just have needed the early exit at Roland Garros so she could get away and recharge the batteries.
The break up with Rory McIlroy had brought a lot of unwanted media attention while Wozniacki also had a lingering knee injury to deal with, but her wins over Sam Stosur and Sloane Stephens would have built some confidence.
Now she takes on Camila Giorgi who backed up her win over Victoria Azarenka by coming from a set behind to beat British Number 3 Johanna Konta in the Second Round. Giorgi has a big game, although her serve can let her down when she goes for too much and that leads to double faults and mistakes in her game.
Giorgi will attack the Wozniacki serve and I think she will earn breaks in this one and will win the match if she can keep her composure behind her own serve. The grass courts seem to work with the Giorgi game and I do think she can be inspired taking on the big names of the WTA Tour and I expect this to go three sets which should lead to the young Italian covering.
MY PICKS: Sam Querrey @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-8, - 11.04 Units (22 Units Staked, - 50.18% Yield)
Djokovic admitted his surprise at that change between the two top players in the world, but it made sense when considering the recent grass court success of the two players- Rafael Nadal hasn't made a strong run at Wimbledon since 2011 and has been beaten in the Second Round in 2012 and the First Round last season so his recent performances on grass cost him the top Seed.
Andy Murray's move up the seeding wasn't a real surprise considering he has arguably been the best grass court player over the last two years, and it could be a key to whether he can defend the Wimbledon title he won twelve months ago. Instead of having to face possibly three out of Stan Wawrinka/Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic/Rafael Nadal, the Number 3 Seed gives Murray the opportunity to move through the draw with one less major obstacle to beat if the seedings hold up.
It has been another tough week for the picks and I am not sure what has gone wrong to be honest- I have felt a little exhausted seeing results going the wrong way, and it has been a ridiculously poor seven days with bad breaks coupled with bad breaks. Every time I have felt I have hit a low, another day goes by with another loss and I am at pains to work it out.
The tournaments in Eastbourne and Hertogenbosch have both reached the Quarter Final round as players begin to look towards the next Grand Slam of the season, although the majority of names left in the draws are unlikely to be major threats next week.
Sam Querrey v Julien Benneteau: Sam Querrey has fallen far from his best over the last twelve months, but the grass courts have usually been where he has had success and I can see him progressing to the Semi Final.
He is facing the always tough Julien Benneteau who has given Roger Federer all he can handle on the surface and has the solid game that could pose plenty of problems for Querrey if the American is not on his game.
Querrey's serve should give him some easier points of the two players, but the conditions in Eastbourne are not as warm as in London last week so he will need to do more than simply relying on a big serve. However, he should get a few opportunities to break serve if the scoreboard pressure pays off, but Querrey hasn't been a source of reliance when it comes to winning matches.
In saying that, I don't think he should be the underdog in this match and I will back him to win in possibly three sets.
Jeremy Chardy v Feliciano Lopez: Credit to Feliciano Lopez for battling through his Second Round match against Tobias Kamke, but it was a long match for the defending Champion at Eastbourne as he comes off the success of reaching the Final at Queens last week. Coming off a long week and with Wimbledon coming up fast, there is every chance that someone like Jeremy Chardy could take away whatever Lopez has left in the tank.
Tiredness has to be a factor while Jeremy Chardy has a decent serve and the groundstrokes to be a tough competitor to play on the faster surfaces including the grass courts.
If the Frenchman can serve well, Chardy will put a lot of pressure on Lopez who has to be feeling things physically and mentally after his recent exertions. He is a very strong grass court player, but the week has to take its toll eventually and I do think Chardy is in a position to take advantage.
Chardy has to find a way to push this match into a third set at the very least as that could be enough to see him through against a player that begins to feel all the tennis he has played and I think the Frenchman can come through.
Nicolas Mahut v Roberto Bautista-Agut: Nicolas Mahut is the defending Champion in Hertogenbosch and he can take another step towards winning the title again here if he can get past Roberto Bautista-Agut.
The dying art of the serve-volley is still the staple of Mahut's game and it works very effectively on the grass courts when the Frenchman really comes into his own. He should be able to keep the pressure on Bautista-Agut who is able to defend very well, but could be under the cosh as he tries to pass Mahut at the net and also to ensure that he isn't on the front foot in the match.
Bautista-Agut has had a couple of good wins already this week, but hasn't had a lot of success on the grass courts and doesn't have the big shot to quickly end the points on this kind of surface.
I do believe Mahut has enough to keep Bautista-Agut concentrating on what he is doing rather than letting the Spaniard play his own game and that might be enough for Mahut to come through.
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 games v Caroline Wozniacki: There has been a couple of good wins put into the books by Caroline Wozniacki who may just have needed the early exit at Roland Garros so she could get away and recharge the batteries.
The break up with Rory McIlroy had brought a lot of unwanted media attention while Wozniacki also had a lingering knee injury to deal with, but her wins over Sam Stosur and Sloane Stephens would have built some confidence.
Now she takes on Camila Giorgi who backed up her win over Victoria Azarenka by coming from a set behind to beat British Number 3 Johanna Konta in the Second Round. Giorgi has a big game, although her serve can let her down when she goes for too much and that leads to double faults and mistakes in her game.
Giorgi will attack the Wozniacki serve and I think she will earn breaks in this one and will win the match if she can keep her composure behind her own serve. The grass courts seem to work with the Giorgi game and I do think she can be inspired taking on the big names of the WTA Tour and I expect this to go three sets which should lead to the young Italian covering.
MY PICKS: Sam Querrey @ 2.05 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Jeremy Chardy @ 2.33 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Camila Giorgi + 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 3-8, - 11.04 Units (22 Units Staked, - 50.18% Yield)
Wednesday, 18 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 18th)
Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 games v Carlos Berlocq: It was a somewhat surprising win for Jeremy Chardy in the First Round as he played very well against Ivo Karlovic to beat the big server in straight sets. He is a fairly heavy favourite to beat Carlos Berlocq and I still think Chardy should perhaps have been even shorter in the market to win.
Out of the two players, you would think Chardy would be the happier on the grass courts as Berlocq is much more used to the clay courts and the extended rallies that surface brings.
On the grass courts, the ball skids through that much lower, while Berlocq's serve is definitely the more vulnerable of the two players. Chardy should have enough to win this one with a break advantage in each set and I like him to win this 64, 63.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: Another match taking place on Wednesday where I believe there is a mismatch as to how the players take to the grass courts is the one between Alize Cornet and Angelique Kerber.
The German played really well in the First Round against a dangerous opponent in Alison Riske, but she came through in straight sets and should have covered this number but for a lapse in concentration when serving for the match.
Cornet has won matches on the grass courts before, but she hasn't had sustained success on the surface and I think Kerber's serve will give her a few cheap points. Kerber also moves well on the grass and I think she can frustrate Cornet to the point of recording a 75, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-7, - 10.7 Units (18 Units Staked, - 59.44% Yield)
Out of the two players, you would think Chardy would be the happier on the grass courts as Berlocq is much more used to the clay courts and the extended rallies that surface brings.
On the grass courts, the ball skids through that much lower, while Berlocq's serve is definitely the more vulnerable of the two players. Chardy should have enough to win this one with a break advantage in each set and I like him to win this 64, 63.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Alize Cornet: Another match taking place on Wednesday where I believe there is a mismatch as to how the players take to the grass courts is the one between Alize Cornet and Angelique Kerber.
The German played really well in the First Round against a dangerous opponent in Alison Riske, but she came through in straight sets and should have covered this number but for a lapse in concentration when serving for the match.
Cornet has won matches on the grass courts before, but she hasn't had sustained success on the surface and I think Kerber's serve will give her a few cheap points. Kerber also moves well on the grass and I think she can frustrate Cornet to the point of recording a 75, 64 win.
MY PICKS: Jeremy Chardy - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-7, - 10.7 Units (18 Units Staked, - 59.44% Yield)
Tuesday, 17 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 17th)
The build up to Wimbledon continues with qualifying taking place in Roehampton, but I was stupid enough to not realise that Tamira Paszek was going to be taking part and thus 'didn't care' about her final match at Eastbourne... Suffice to say that Paszek was beaten in two sets and it does raise the question as to why a tournament would allow someone to take part in their qualifiers if they have no intention to take part in the main draw at an event.
I understand that there is a need to pick up any kind of Ranking points, but it surely isn't a good thing for the paying public to know a player isn't going to really try and make a match and put in the necessary desire.
That was simply a poor bit of research by me, but I couldn't have picked Ivo Karlovic to serve as poorly as he did despite shortening in price right up until the point the match started. Agnieszka Radwanska has let me down for the last time for a while as a former 'machine' against players ranked lower than her has begun to make matches far more competitive than ever.
Just to really put the exclamation point on a poor day, Angelique Kerber had the 'Berdych's' as she created numerous break point chances against Alison Riske, but was broken serving for the handicap cover only to break and win the match in the very next game.
Edouard Roger-Vasselin - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Any time I notice someone coming through the qualifiers, I have to have some respect for the player simply because they must have some confidence after winning three matches in a row. Andrey Kuznetsov did the same in Halle last week, although he found Dustin Brown too good in the First Round before heading over to England for this tournament.
It's another tough opener for Kuznetsov as he has been drawn with Edouard Roger-Vasselin who had a respectable week at Queens and has the solid game that will work very well on grass. The Frenchman has a decent serve and consistent groundstrokes while also capable of attacking the net which makes him a tough prospect to face on the grass courts.
Roger-Vasselin also has had a few days to recover from the exertions that took him to the Doubles title at the French Open as well as the two wins he had at Queens, and he should prove a little too good for Kuznetsov.
He should have enough to also challenge the Russian serve to the extent of recording a 75, 64 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: Fernando Verdasco had a wonderful run to the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last year and even had a two set lead over Andy Murray in that match before running out of steam in a five set defeat.
It would have reminded the Spaniard that he still has something to offer on the Singles Tour and that grass is a surface that he can perform on- Verdasco has the big lefty serve and heavy groundstrokes that should zip through the grass, while his success on the Doubles Tour suggests volleying shouldn't be a concern either to end points that much quicker.
Verdasco does get Paul-Henri Mathieu up first who had a couple of matches on the grass last week in London, but that is also a player that the Spaniard has dominated through their matches.
You can see Mathieu frustrating Verdasco at times with his serve and ability to play big points, but I think Verdasco will have a little too much for the Frenchman and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Lukas Rosol v Jan-Lennard Struff: This has been set as a pick 'em match and I was surprised that Lukas Rosol is considered the underdog and can only put that down to a lack of grass court tennis for him this season.
Don't think I am just considering Rosol as the winner because of one match against Rafael Nadal two years ago, but I think he has a decent serve which should give him a chance to win this one. Rosol should also be a little more confident in his tennis having won a Challenger on the clay courts a couple of weeks ago, while Jan-Lennard Struff is a solid player but not had the grass court success in the past to think he can win a match like this.
Struff did reach the Second Round at Wimbledon last year after qualifying, but his defeat last week in Halle to Joao Sousa was a real disappointment, even if he does have the game that should translate onto the grass courts.
It might take a couple of tie-breakers to get the job done, but I don't agree with Rosol being the underdog and will back him to win.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: The former Wimbledon Champion Petra Kvitova should be able to make a good start to her grass court season against Lucie Safarova on Tuesday, especially as she has beaten her compatriot in all four previous matches on Tour. Kvitova has only lost one set in those matches too and I think she is more comfortable on the grass courts of the two players and that should give the higher Ranked Czech player the chance to move into the Second Round.
My biggest concern in backing Kvitova has been the amount of erratic tennis she plays within the same match- at some points she looks like the Wimbledon Champion she became a few years ago, but then suddenly she can't find any consistency off the ground.
That has led to a lot of three set matches for Kvitova which is preventing her from winning titles consistently, but I do think she will have the advantage in this match because of the surface.
Lucie Safarova has a strong serve, but I don't think she feels as comfortable moving on grass and she might just fall away if she loses a tight first set and I like Kvitova to win 76, 63.
Tsvetana Pironkova v Heather Watson: Another pick 'em match where I think the underdog has been under-rated is between the current British Number 1 Heather Watson and Tsvetana Pironkova.
Watson will receive plenty of support, but Pironkova is a player that clearly loves the grass courts with her most consistent success on the Tour coming on this surface. She seems to relish playing on the green stuff and I think it will be tough for Watson to repeat her 2010 win over the Bulgarian at Eastbourne from 2010.
This is the first match that Pironkova is playing on grass this season so there is a chance that she could be caught cold by Watson who has been getting ready for Wimbledon for a couple of weeks at least. However, Pironkova has reached the Quarter Finals in her last two warm up events the week before Wimbledon and I think her grass court pedigree makes her a very appealing back in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Edouard Roger-Vasselin - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tsevtana Pironkova @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-4, - 8 Units (8 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
I understand that there is a need to pick up any kind of Ranking points, but it surely isn't a good thing for the paying public to know a player isn't going to really try and make a match and put in the necessary desire.
That was simply a poor bit of research by me, but I couldn't have picked Ivo Karlovic to serve as poorly as he did despite shortening in price right up until the point the match started. Agnieszka Radwanska has let me down for the last time for a while as a former 'machine' against players ranked lower than her has begun to make matches far more competitive than ever.
Just to really put the exclamation point on a poor day, Angelique Kerber had the 'Berdych's' as she created numerous break point chances against Alison Riske, but was broken serving for the handicap cover only to break and win the match in the very next game.
Edouard Roger-Vasselin - 2.5 games v Andrey Kuznetsov: Any time I notice someone coming through the qualifiers, I have to have some respect for the player simply because they must have some confidence after winning three matches in a row. Andrey Kuznetsov did the same in Halle last week, although he found Dustin Brown too good in the First Round before heading over to England for this tournament.
It's another tough opener for Kuznetsov as he has been drawn with Edouard Roger-Vasselin who had a respectable week at Queens and has the solid game that will work very well on grass. The Frenchman has a decent serve and consistent groundstrokes while also capable of attacking the net which makes him a tough prospect to face on the grass courts.
Roger-Vasselin also has had a few days to recover from the exertions that took him to the Doubles title at the French Open as well as the two wins he had at Queens, and he should prove a little too good for Kuznetsov.
He should have enough to also challenge the Russian serve to the extent of recording a 75, 64 win.
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 games v Paul-Henri Mathieu: Fernando Verdasco had a wonderful run to the Quarter Final at Wimbledon last year and even had a two set lead over Andy Murray in that match before running out of steam in a five set defeat.
It would have reminded the Spaniard that he still has something to offer on the Singles Tour and that grass is a surface that he can perform on- Verdasco has the big lefty serve and heavy groundstrokes that should zip through the grass, while his success on the Doubles Tour suggests volleying shouldn't be a concern either to end points that much quicker.
Verdasco does get Paul-Henri Mathieu up first who had a couple of matches on the grass last week in London, but that is also a player that the Spaniard has dominated through their matches.
You can see Mathieu frustrating Verdasco at times with his serve and ability to play big points, but I think Verdasco will have a little too much for the Frenchman and come through with a 76, 63 win.
Lukas Rosol v Jan-Lennard Struff: This has been set as a pick 'em match and I was surprised that Lukas Rosol is considered the underdog and can only put that down to a lack of grass court tennis for him this season.
Don't think I am just considering Rosol as the winner because of one match against Rafael Nadal two years ago, but I think he has a decent serve which should give him a chance to win this one. Rosol should also be a little more confident in his tennis having won a Challenger on the clay courts a couple of weeks ago, while Jan-Lennard Struff is a solid player but not had the grass court success in the past to think he can win a match like this.
Struff did reach the Second Round at Wimbledon last year after qualifying, but his defeat last week in Halle to Joao Sousa was a real disappointment, even if he does have the game that should translate onto the grass courts.
It might take a couple of tie-breakers to get the job done, but I don't agree with Rosol being the underdog and will back him to win.
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 games v Lucie Safarova: The former Wimbledon Champion Petra Kvitova should be able to make a good start to her grass court season against Lucie Safarova on Tuesday, especially as she has beaten her compatriot in all four previous matches on Tour. Kvitova has only lost one set in those matches too and I think she is more comfortable on the grass courts of the two players and that should give the higher Ranked Czech player the chance to move into the Second Round.
My biggest concern in backing Kvitova has been the amount of erratic tennis she plays within the same match- at some points she looks like the Wimbledon Champion she became a few years ago, but then suddenly she can't find any consistency off the ground.
That has led to a lot of three set matches for Kvitova which is preventing her from winning titles consistently, but I do think she will have the advantage in this match because of the surface.
Lucie Safarova has a strong serve, but I don't think she feels as comfortable moving on grass and she might just fall away if she loses a tight first set and I like Kvitova to win 76, 63.
Tsvetana Pironkova v Heather Watson: Another pick 'em match where I think the underdog has been under-rated is between the current British Number 1 Heather Watson and Tsvetana Pironkova.
Watson will receive plenty of support, but Pironkova is a player that clearly loves the grass courts with her most consistent success on the Tour coming on this surface. She seems to relish playing on the green stuff and I think it will be tough for Watson to repeat her 2010 win over the Bulgarian at Eastbourne from 2010.
This is the first match that Pironkova is playing on grass this season so there is a chance that she could be caught cold by Watson who has been getting ready for Wimbledon for a couple of weeks at least. However, Pironkova has reached the Quarter Finals in her last two warm up events the week before Wimbledon and I think her grass court pedigree makes her a very appealing back in this First Round match.
MY PICKS: Edouard Roger-Vasselin - 2.5 Games @ 1.73 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Fernando Verdasco - 3.5 Games @ 2.17 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Lukas Rosol @ 2.00 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Petra Kvitova - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tsevtana Pironkova @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 0-4, - 8 Units (8 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Monday, 16 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 16th)
Last week is usually the time when the big names from the men's game take to the court for their sole preparation for Wimbledon in competitive grass court action and this week it is the biggest names in the women's game that get going. Aside from Serena Williams, Na Li and Maria Sharapova, most of the stars of the WTA Tour head down to Eastbourne including Victoria Azarenka who has recovered from an injury that saw her miss out on the French Open.
I tend to stay away from the outright picks in the final week before a Grand Slam tournament because I do feel that factor alone makes it hard to get a total read on motivation for players. That is especially the case if a player is down a set and how much desire they have to fight back and expend energy they might want to reserve for the next big tournament which begins in seven days time.
Last week also looked to be a terrible one for the picks as I just couldn't seem to catch a break from the picks I was making, but both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer won tournaments as they helped recover the losses and actually end the week with some more positive results to add to the season. Hopefully this week won't see my picks having such a torrid time, especially with no outright picks to save the week, but it is a new game and will bring some momentum into the third Grand Slam of the season.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Alison Riske: The grass courts have certainly been a surface that Alison Riske has enjoyed with her decent serve and power shots really skidding off the court and enabling her to win plenty of matches.
She had a run to the Third Round in Birmingham last week and should give Angelique Kerber plenty to think about, although I do think the German's defence will extract enough errors from Riske's game to help her move through to the Second Round.
Kerber isn't solely a defensive player as she too also has a decent serve and penetrating groundstrokes, so it is something of a surprise to me that so many breaks of serve were achieved when they met at the Australian Open back in January.
I am guessing the grass courts will mean we don't see as many breaks as in that match, but I still think Kerber can win another one against Riske and come through 64, 64.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: After reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon last season, and previously also playing in her sole Grand Slam Final on the grass courts, Agnieszka Radwanska should be feeling confident she can have another big run at the next Grand Slam beginning next week.
It would be nice for Radwanska to get some tennis under her feet on the surface, although her early exit didn't bother her a year ago in Easbourne, and I do think the match up with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is a good one for the Pole.
Radwanska can frustrate Pavlyuchenkova and that leads to errors with the Russian trying to play that much closer to the lines. I also think the grass courts can expose some of the limited movement of Pavlyuchenkova and I really don't think she is as comfortable on this surface as the other ones we see on the Tour during the season.
With that in mind, I expect a tight first set to be won by Radwanska who can then pull away in the match for a 64, 62 win.
Tamira Paszek v Su-Wei Hsieh: Tamira Paszek still loves playing on the grass and she has come through the qualifiers in Eastbourne which should just help her feel a little more confident of winning this First Round match against fellow qualifier Su-Wei Hsieh.
Out of the two players, you would have to say that Paszek has the better grass court pedigree as this is probably her favourite portion of the season and I was surprised that the layers only make a small favourite to win the match outright.
Hsieh has also qualified for the event so can't be totally disregarded, but Paszek should have too much in the locker to move through to the Second Round.
Ivo Karlovic v Jeremy Chardy: This isn't a match that I would be predicting to see too many breaks of serve, but Eastbourne is a venue where Ivo Karlovic has won the title before and he has been playing some good tennis over the last couple of months.
The conditions should favour the big serving of Karlovic and we all saw how Jeremy Chardy couldn't hand that when losing to Sam Querrey at Queens last week. The Frenchman is a solid player on grass, but his return game can be erratic and it may be tough for him to really get involved if Karlovic is serving to the level he has been of late.
Karlovic did suffer a loss in Halle in straight sets when losing two tie-breakers, but I think his serve is 'safer' than Chardy's and that may make the difference in critical moments in the match.
We could see three tie-breakers in this one, but Ivo Karlovic's ability to get to the net may win the match for him.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.81 Unibet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.81 Unibet (2 Units)
Tamira Paszek @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Daily Final: 10-19, - 18.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 32.31% Yield)
Weekly Outright Final: 2-2, + 23 Units (11 Units Staked, + 209% Yield)
Season 2014: + 51.86 Units (876.5 Units Staked, + 5.92% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
I tend to stay away from the outright picks in the final week before a Grand Slam tournament because I do feel that factor alone makes it hard to get a total read on motivation for players. That is especially the case if a player is down a set and how much desire they have to fight back and expend energy they might want to reserve for the next big tournament which begins in seven days time.
Last week also looked to be a terrible one for the picks as I just couldn't seem to catch a break from the picks I was making, but both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer won tournaments as they helped recover the losses and actually end the week with some more positive results to add to the season. Hopefully this week won't see my picks having such a torrid time, especially with no outright picks to save the week, but it is a new game and will bring some momentum into the third Grand Slam of the season.
Angelique Kerber - 3.5 games v Alison Riske: The grass courts have certainly been a surface that Alison Riske has enjoyed with her decent serve and power shots really skidding off the court and enabling her to win plenty of matches.
She had a run to the Third Round in Birmingham last week and should give Angelique Kerber plenty to think about, although I do think the German's defence will extract enough errors from Riske's game to help her move through to the Second Round.
Kerber isn't solely a defensive player as she too also has a decent serve and penetrating groundstrokes, so it is something of a surprise to me that so many breaks of serve were achieved when they met at the Australian Open back in January.
I am guessing the grass courts will mean we don't see as many breaks as in that match, but I still think Kerber can win another one against Riske and come through 64, 64.
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 games v Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova: After reaching the Semi Final at Wimbledon last season, and previously also playing in her sole Grand Slam Final on the grass courts, Agnieszka Radwanska should be feeling confident she can have another big run at the next Grand Slam beginning next week.
It would be nice for Radwanska to get some tennis under her feet on the surface, although her early exit didn't bother her a year ago in Easbourne, and I do think the match up with Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova is a good one for the Pole.
Radwanska can frustrate Pavlyuchenkova and that leads to errors with the Russian trying to play that much closer to the lines. I also think the grass courts can expose some of the limited movement of Pavlyuchenkova and I really don't think she is as comfortable on this surface as the other ones we see on the Tour during the season.
With that in mind, I expect a tight first set to be won by Radwanska who can then pull away in the match for a 64, 62 win.
Tamira Paszek v Su-Wei Hsieh: Tamira Paszek still loves playing on the grass and she has come through the qualifiers in Eastbourne which should just help her feel a little more confident of winning this First Round match against fellow qualifier Su-Wei Hsieh.
Out of the two players, you would have to say that Paszek has the better grass court pedigree as this is probably her favourite portion of the season and I was surprised that the layers only make a small favourite to win the match outright.
Hsieh has also qualified for the event so can't be totally disregarded, but Paszek should have too much in the locker to move through to the Second Round.
Ivo Karlovic v Jeremy Chardy: This isn't a match that I would be predicting to see too many breaks of serve, but Eastbourne is a venue where Ivo Karlovic has won the title before and he has been playing some good tennis over the last couple of months.
The conditions should favour the big serving of Karlovic and we all saw how Jeremy Chardy couldn't hand that when losing to Sam Querrey at Queens last week. The Frenchman is a solid player on grass, but his return game can be erratic and it may be tough for him to really get involved if Karlovic is serving to the level he has been of late.
Karlovic did suffer a loss in Halle in straight sets when losing two tie-breakers, but I think his serve is 'safer' than Chardy's and that may make the difference in critical moments in the match.
We could see three tie-breakers in this one, but Ivo Karlovic's ability to get to the net may win the match for him.
MY PICKS: Angelique Kerber - 3.5 Games @ 1.81 Unibet (2 Units)
Agnieszka Radwanska - 5.5 Games @ 1.81 Unibet (2 Units)
Tamira Paszek @ 1.83 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Ivo Karlovic @ 1.73 William Hill (2 Units)
Weekly Daily Final: 10-19, - 18.74 Units (58 Units Staked, - 32.31% Yield)
Weekly Outright Final: 2-2, + 23 Units (11 Units Staked, + 209% Yield)
Season 2014: + 51.86 Units (876.5 Units Staked, + 5.92% Yield)
Season 2013: + 21.74 Units (1251.5 Units Staked, + 1.73% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Sunday, 15 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 15th)
It hasn't been a lot of fun making picks over the last few days with a lot of poor picks and a little bad luck conspiring against me.
However, even a desperately poor week has every chance of ending with a smile as both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer made their respective Finals at Queens and Halle and both are favourites to win those events.
If that happens, it will actually make this a half decent week after all despite some of the negativity I had been feeling. I would expect Federer to come through and beat Alejandro Falla, but I still think Feliciano Lopez is a dangerous opponent for Dimitrov so will keep the fingers crossed in those matches.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Barbora Zahvalova Strycova: As much as I respect the run that Barbora Zahvalova Strycova has had to reach the Final this week, I do think she was given a couple of breaks yesterday that helped her through against Casey Dellacqua.
The first was the horrendous about of easy errors that the Australian made, and the second was the rain delay when Dellacqua had turned the first set around with three games in a row.
Still, as I said, you have to respect the form of a player reaching the Final, except I believe Ana Ivanovic is going to be prove to be far too good for her in this match.
Zahvalova Strycova has had to struggle through a few Rounds, but Ana Ivanovic has dominated through the week and it was more of the same from her in the Semi Final. It will be hard to see past another convincing Ivanovic win in the form she has displayed all week and I don't see that coming off at the most critical time.
The first set may be tight, but I can see Ivanovic running away with the match if she wins that set and force Zahvalova Strycova to feel the fatigue of the week and the Serb should pick up a title after a 63, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1,85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-19, - 20.44 Units (56 Units Staked, - 35.79% Yield)
However, even a desperately poor week has every chance of ending with a smile as both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer made their respective Finals at Queens and Halle and both are favourites to win those events.
If that happens, it will actually make this a half decent week after all despite some of the negativity I had been feeling. I would expect Federer to come through and beat Alejandro Falla, but I still think Feliciano Lopez is a dangerous opponent for Dimitrov so will keep the fingers crossed in those matches.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Barbora Zahvalova Strycova: As much as I respect the run that Barbora Zahvalova Strycova has had to reach the Final this week, I do think she was given a couple of breaks yesterday that helped her through against Casey Dellacqua.
The first was the horrendous about of easy errors that the Australian made, and the second was the rain delay when Dellacqua had turned the first set around with three games in a row.
Still, as I said, you have to respect the form of a player reaching the Final, except I believe Ana Ivanovic is going to be prove to be far too good for her in this match.
Zahvalova Strycova has had to struggle through a few Rounds, but Ana Ivanovic has dominated through the week and it was more of the same from her in the Semi Final. It will be hard to see past another convincing Ivanovic win in the form she has displayed all week and I don't see that coming off at the most critical time.
The first set may be tight, but I can see Ivanovic running away with the match if she wins that set and force Zahvalova Strycova to feel the fatigue of the week and the Serb should pick up a title after a 63, 63 win.
MY PICKS: Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 1,85 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 9-19, - 20.44 Units (56 Units Staked, - 35.79% Yield)
Saturday, 14 June 2014
Tennis Picks 2014 (June 14th)
Once in a while, in a long season on the Tour and making picks on a weekly basis, I seem to enter the twilight zone and that is what it has felt like this week ever since Heather Watson blew a big lead in a losing effort on Tuesday. The last three days have been crazy with picks coming so close, but finishing so far from the winner's enclosure, and this is a damage limitation week on what has been a decent season to this point.
With that in mind, both Grigor Dimitrov and Roger Federer are both still running in their respective tournaments this week as we reach the Semi Finals. Both have tough Semi Finals, but would be considered the favourites to win the title if they can come through these matches, although that is far from straight-forward with Stan Wawrinka and Kei Nishikori standing in the way.
Wawrinka has played very solid tennis all week and Dimitrov has never beaten him, while Nishikori has beaten Federer the last two times they have met.
If, and it is a big if, Dimitrov can come through his Semi Final, the week might not be as tragic as it is looking, but the real way I can turn this around is if both players win the tournaments at Queens and Halle.
Radek Stepanek v Feliciano Lopez: Over the years, Radek Stepanek and Feliciano Lopez have both enjoyed plenty of success on the grass courts, but it is something of a surprise that they have never met on the surface despite that success.
However, it is not the first time that these players will have played one another and Stepanek has dominated the head to head with a 9-2 record, although the last four matches have been split between them. It has been around eighteen months since they last met when Stepanek recorded a surprising straight sets win over Lopez at the Australian Open.
I was critical of Tomas Berdych on Twitter that he wasn't making any adjustments to Lopez' game in the Quarter Final and I think that is where Stepanek will show off his on court clear thinking. The Czech player will slice and dice, while attacking the net to try and keep Lopez off guard, but he has to also hope the Spaniard's serving comes down a level from where it has been the last three days.
Lopez has had some long matches, but any fatigue is cancelled out by Stepanek participating in the Doubles here too and I think it will come to a couple of big points here and there.
On the face of it, Lopez is the right favourite, but I think Stepanek can addle the Spaniard's mind and that will give him a real chance of making the Final here.
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 games v Shuai Zhang: There are a lot of positives to say about Shuai Zhang off the ground with some of the accuracy and power she displayed in her win over Sloane Stephens in the Quarter Final, but she was also helped considerably by a poor performance from the American.
While Stephens is someone that I won't be backing again any time soon, especially outside of the Slams, Ana Ivanovic is unlikely to check out mentally as quickly as the American did. Ivanovic has been dominant all through the week and that has shown with the comfort she has won her first three matches in Birmingham.
The Serb hits the ball very well and she has generally been improving as she looks to find the form that took her to World Number 1 and the French Open title. Ivanovic can struggle with her serve at times and that may give Zhang an 'in' for the match, but Ivanovic is also likely to offer much more resistance on the serve she sees.
With the aggressive play and power that Ivanovic possesses, I expect her to be too strong for Zhang and come through with a 61, 64 win.
Casey Dellacqua - 3.5 games v Barbora Zahlavova Strycova: I don't think too many people would have had these two players as potential Semi Finalists in Birmingham this week, although both have a decent grass court pedigree to perhaps think it is less of a surprise as initially thought.
Both Casey Dellacqua and Barbora Zahlavova Strycova have performed well this week, but the latter has a lot more tennis in her legs having to go three sets in each of her first three matches before a more straight-forward win on Friday.
Dealing with a lefty serve is always an issue for players, while Dellacqua should also have the edge in terms of power, and the Australian is also having a career year to this point and would dearly love to reach the Final.
She'll have to stay mentally tough against Zahlavova Strycova who can frustrate her opponents with solid and consistent groundstrokes, but I do think Dellacqua will be able to find her way to a 64, 64 win if she can control her nerves.
MY PICKS: Radek Stepanek @ 2.25 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Ana Ivanovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.20 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Casey Dellacqua - 3.5 Games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 8-17, - 18.44 Units (50 Units Staked, - 36.88% Yield)
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