World Cup Final 2018 Pick- France vs Croatia (July 15th)

I can't believe a month at the World Cup is about o come to a close on Sunday and I have to say the tournament has been about as good as any going back to Italia 90.

The England run was magnificent and united a country at a difficult time, while there have been a couple of truly memorable World Cup matches notably Portugal vs Spain and Brazil vs Belgium.

Hopefully there are two more quality matches to come with the unwanted Third/Fourth Play Off coming on Saturday before the Final between France and Croatia kicks off on Sunday.

And then it will be all eyes turned to Qatar in four and a half years time.

Belgium vs England

Some would consider this the most meaningless game in international football as the two losing Semi Finalists at the World Cup Finals meet for the right to say they finished third at the event. No player is going to be that interested about parading a bronze medal around, but there is an edge to Belgium versus England which could mean another high-scoring game.

High-scoring games is what the Third/Fourth Play Off has become known for as teams are perhaps using changed line ups and there isn't anything to lose so attacking football comes to the fore.

Both Belgium and England will feel they can get at what can be considered vulnerable defences and the attacking players will have their chances in this one.

The edge between the teams comes from the fact that so many of them will be familiar with one another with a huge amount of the Belgium players currently plying their trade in the English Premier League. While the likes of Kevin De Bruyne, Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku were not featured in the Group Stage win over England, I imagine they will be urging Roberto Martinez to allow them to play this game.

Martinez himself has insisted Belgium are looking for their best ever World Cup Finals and they can do that by winning this game and surpassing the efforts made by the 1986 squad. It is also important to Martinez to give the team some momentum for the UEFA Nations League and moving through to Euro 2020 in two years time after an improved Belgium performance at this World Cup.

Gareth Southgate has suggested the same for England, but injuries are adding up and England have had less time to get over their disappointment of missing out on a World Cup Finals place. They have also had to play an additional thirty minutes before going out of the tournament and I think a fresher Belgium with arguably a stronger starting eleven will be too good for England.

This may not be the game that either team wanted to be playing this weekend but I think the players will be keen to get one over on club team-mates and that makes for a good looking game of football.


I have to give the edge to Belgium who have the stronger attacking approach and what looks like a defence with a few less mistakes in them than their England counterparts. Having an extra day to recover for this game will help and I think Belgium are worth backing on the Asian Handicap to earn the win.

France vs Croatia

This may not be a World Cup Final that a lot of people would have predicted at the start of the tournament but it could be argued the two best teams have made it through to contest the biggest prize in football.

Teams like Belgium may argue against that, and some have even suggested the Semi Final between France and Belgium was effectively the 'real Final', but France will need to be reminded of how things can go wrong if you overlook an opponent.

Just look back two years- France beat World Cup Champions Germany 2-0 in the Euro 2016 Semi Final and most expected them to get past Portugal and even more so when Cristiano Ronaldo had to leave very early with an injury. Even then things did not work out as they would have expected as they were beaten 0-1 in their home Final and I think Didier Deschamps will make sure the players are reminded of needing to be focused.

I do think the players would have learned from those mistakes though and I don't think France will make those again.

That isn't underestimating Croatia, but there has to be an accumulated fatigue building up to the levels which will make it tough for them to perform at their best. For forty-five minutes against England Croatia were clearly second best and it was only a couple of big missed opportunities that prevented England from taking complete control of that Semi Final.

France may be a cautious side by nature under Deschamps, but they have been looking pretty tight defensively and they have the midfield to disrupt the power of the Croatian side in the middle of the park. That is key for France and doing that should mean they can expose what has looked a vulnerable Croatia defence and I very much think France win this Final.

They are the fresher team who have had longer to prepare for the Final and the experience of Euro 2016 should really help the players focus for this one. France have enough quality in the final third to create chances and are a threat at set pieces, while the last couple of games have seen them defend very well.

It all adds up to a simple selection for me and that is backing France to win this game. If they score first, as they have in their three Knock Out ties and Croatia have conceded first in all three Knock Out ties, I think France will be very tough to peg back and have the counter attack to finish off what will be tired opponents.


All credit to Croatia for making the Final, but all the additional football needed will have added up physically and emotionally and I will back France to win a second World Cup title twenty years after the first.

MY PICKS: Belgium - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
France @ 1.95 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Semi Final Final: 1-1, + 0.20 Units (4 Units Staked, + 5% Yield)
Quarter Final Final: 2-2, + 2.70 Units (8 Units, + 33.75% Yield)
Last 16 Final: 2-6, - 7.20 Units (16 Units Staked, - 45% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin Three Final: 8-8, + 3.53 Units (27.50 Units Staked, + 12.84% Yield)
Group Stage Round Robin Two Final: 8-7-1, + 1.09 Units (31 Units Staked, + 3.52% Yield)


Group Stage Round Robin One Final: 8-8, + 5.24 Units (28 Units Staked, + 18.71% Yield)

Copa America 2016 Final Pick (June 25-26)

Copa America 2016 Final Pick- Argentina vs Chile

The Copa America has been a fantastic tournament this year, even accounting for some of the controversies that have affected the results, and it is coming to an end this weekend.

The Final is the one most Argentinian fans would likely have wanted as they look for the ultimate revenge over Chile for their Copa America defeat last year. That came via penalties in the Final and even the two wins Argentina have since posted over Chile won't have done enough to erase the memory of yet another defeat in a Final.

It is an important game for Argentina.

Going twenty-three years without a trophy in which time Brazil have won two World Cups and reached the Final of another is not good enough considering the talent Argentina have been able to call upon. Some may argue this is the most talented squad of that time, although I tend to favour the 2002 and 2006 teams that should have done better at those World Cup Finals.


The Final is played on Sunday, but before that we have the Third/Fourth Place Play Off between the United States and Colombia. I am not a big fan of this game simply because you have to try and read between the lines regarding the motivation of players who have missed the big prom and are being consoled with a one person party in their own bedroom.

However it is perhaps a big game for the hosts to underline a successful tournament and show they are ready to prepare for the World Cup in two years time and go into that event as a genuine threat.


Saturday 25th June
United States v Colombia Pick: The third/fourth place Play Off in any tournament is perhaps one of the harder games to work out as you simply don't know what kind of motivation teams are bringing into that match. For the United States as the hosts there has to be a little more behind them to right the wrongs of the performance in the loss to Argentina in the Semi Final, while a third place finish would be a big achievement for Jurgen Klinsmann and his squad.

On the other side of the field will be the disappointed Colombia team who are still in touch of their best finish at a Copa America since winning the competition in 2001. That is a consolation prize at best for Colombia who expected to reach the Final following a positive start to the Copa America and they also have to pick themselves up from the manner in which they lost the Semi Final.

Going behind 0-2 after eleven minutes would be a huge mental blow for Colombia who will feel a better start might have paid off in that Semi Final with Chile. They dominated much of the rest of the game, but Colombia also had to put in a lot of physical work on a heavy pitch which may affect their performance here.

How much energy have the Colombian team got left against a United States team that will have a number of suspended players back in the starting line up?

I am leaning towards the United States to win this game with a little more motivation behind them, but the bigger lean is towards goals, or a lack of them anyway.

The layers are expecting an attacking game, and that may be the case, but I do wonder if Colombia have had a lot of energy sapped in their last game. The United States should look to be a lot more solid at the back than they were in their defeat to Argentina and so this might be a game that has chances but perhaps not the finishing of earlier in the tournament.

4 of the last 6 between these nations has seen under three goals shared out, while one of the exceptions saw the third goal scored in the 87th minute. Earlier in the Group we saw Colombia beat the United States 0-2 and odds against quotes for fewer than three goals looks tempting enough.


Sunday 26th June
Argentina v Chile Pick: Revenge might be on the mind of some of the fans on Sunday as Argentina take on Chile in the Copa America Final for the second time in the last twelve months. The players are likely to be more focused on winning their first major international trophy since 1993 having already earned 'revenge' twice over Chile since that defeat in the Final last year.

The 2-1 win in the Group doesn't highlight the dominance Argentina had in that game, although Chile will say they are more confident now. That defeat meant Chile had lost 5 of 6 games, but they have won their last 4 in the Copa America and have beaten both Mexico and Colombia in the last two Rounds.

Those wins look better than the Argentina wins over Venezuela and the United States, and Chile might feel they are more prepared for the Final.

However Argentina have looked like a team on a mission through the last month and this is a team that missed Lionel Messi in the first win over Chile. Messi is on fire and Argentina have scored at least twice in every game in the Copa America and will feel they have the physical edge having played a day before Chile and the latter also had to deal with a heavy pitch in their Semi Final.

Chile were given a bit of a chasing in that game against Colombia and I am a little worried that they might not have the legs to stay with Argentina. Going forward they should have chances against this backline and I am expecting a better Final than we saw in the 2015 Copa America which ended goalless.

The edge has to be given to Argentina to win this time around though and I think they can do that in normal time. They are scoring plenty of goals and I think the team are focused and relaxed while also winning on the schedule to earn an extra day of rest. As long as Argentina can hold back the mental pressure of winning their first trophy since 1993, I like their chances of doing that in this Centenario competition.

MY PICKS: United States-Colombia Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Argentina to Win @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Semi Final Final: 1-1, + 0.10 Units
Quarter Final Final: 2-2, + 0.20 Units
Group Stage Final: 11-12, + 3.45 Units