Copa America 2016 Final Pick (June 25-26)

Copa America 2016 Final Pick- Argentina vs Chile

The Copa America has been a fantastic tournament this year, even accounting for some of the controversies that have affected the results, and it is coming to an end this weekend.

The Final is the one most Argentinian fans would likely have wanted as they look for the ultimate revenge over Chile for their Copa America defeat last year. That came via penalties in the Final and even the two wins Argentina have since posted over Chile won't have done enough to erase the memory of yet another defeat in a Final.

It is an important game for Argentina.

Going twenty-three years without a trophy in which time Brazil have won two World Cups and reached the Final of another is not good enough considering the talent Argentina have been able to call upon. Some may argue this is the most talented squad of that time, although I tend to favour the 2002 and 2006 teams that should have done better at those World Cup Finals.


The Final is played on Sunday, but before that we have the Third/Fourth Place Play Off between the United States and Colombia. I am not a big fan of this game simply because you have to try and read between the lines regarding the motivation of players who have missed the big prom and are being consoled with a one person party in their own bedroom.

However it is perhaps a big game for the hosts to underline a successful tournament and show they are ready to prepare for the World Cup in two years time and go into that event as a genuine threat.


Saturday 25th June
United States v Colombia Pick: The third/fourth place Play Off in any tournament is perhaps one of the harder games to work out as you simply don't know what kind of motivation teams are bringing into that match. For the United States as the hosts there has to be a little more behind them to right the wrongs of the performance in the loss to Argentina in the Semi Final, while a third place finish would be a big achievement for Jurgen Klinsmann and his squad.

On the other side of the field will be the disappointed Colombia team who are still in touch of their best finish at a Copa America since winning the competition in 2001. That is a consolation prize at best for Colombia who expected to reach the Final following a positive start to the Copa America and they also have to pick themselves up from the manner in which they lost the Semi Final.

Going behind 0-2 after eleven minutes would be a huge mental blow for Colombia who will feel a better start might have paid off in that Semi Final with Chile. They dominated much of the rest of the game, but Colombia also had to put in a lot of physical work on a heavy pitch which may affect their performance here.

How much energy have the Colombian team got left against a United States team that will have a number of suspended players back in the starting line up?

I am leaning towards the United States to win this game with a little more motivation behind them, but the bigger lean is towards goals, or a lack of them anyway.

The layers are expecting an attacking game, and that may be the case, but I do wonder if Colombia have had a lot of energy sapped in their last game. The United States should look to be a lot more solid at the back than they were in their defeat to Argentina and so this might be a game that has chances but perhaps not the finishing of earlier in the tournament.

4 of the last 6 between these nations has seen under three goals shared out, while one of the exceptions saw the third goal scored in the 87th minute. Earlier in the Group we saw Colombia beat the United States 0-2 and odds against quotes for fewer than three goals looks tempting enough.


Sunday 26th June
Argentina v Chile Pick: Revenge might be on the mind of some of the fans on Sunday as Argentina take on Chile in the Copa America Final for the second time in the last twelve months. The players are likely to be more focused on winning their first major international trophy since 1993 having already earned 'revenge' twice over Chile since that defeat in the Final last year.

The 2-1 win in the Group doesn't highlight the dominance Argentina had in that game, although Chile will say they are more confident now. That defeat meant Chile had lost 5 of 6 games, but they have won their last 4 in the Copa America and have beaten both Mexico and Colombia in the last two Rounds.

Those wins look better than the Argentina wins over Venezuela and the United States, and Chile might feel they are more prepared for the Final.

However Argentina have looked like a team on a mission through the last month and this is a team that missed Lionel Messi in the first win over Chile. Messi is on fire and Argentina have scored at least twice in every game in the Copa America and will feel they have the physical edge having played a day before Chile and the latter also had to deal with a heavy pitch in their Semi Final.

Chile were given a bit of a chasing in that game against Colombia and I am a little worried that they might not have the legs to stay with Argentina. Going forward they should have chances against this backline and I am expecting a better Final than we saw in the 2015 Copa America which ended goalless.

The edge has to be given to Argentina to win this time around though and I think they can do that in normal time. They are scoring plenty of goals and I think the team are focused and relaxed while also winning on the schedule to earn an extra day of rest. As long as Argentina can hold back the mental pressure of winning their first trophy since 1993, I like their chances of doing that in this Centenario competition.

MY PICKS: United States-Colombia Under 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Argentina to Win @ 1.80 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Semi Final Final: 1-1, + 0.10 Units
Quarter Final Final: 2-2, + 0.20 Units
Group Stage Final: 11-12, + 3.45 Units

Copa America 2016 Semi Final Picks (June 21-22)

Copa America 2016 Semi Final Picks

The Copa America tournament is coming to a close in the next few days and by the end of Wednesday we will know which two teams will be competing for the trophy on Sunday.

The favourites to do that are Argentina and Chile, the Finalists from the 2015 edition of the tournament, but both the United States and Colombia are sure to have a lot to say about that.

It has been a very good tournament to date, even if most in Europe are perhaps missing a lot of the games due to broadcasting rights on a subscription channel or the Euro 2016 tournament taking up the attention. That shouldn't detract from what has been a good display of attacking football for the most part and the goals have been flowing at a regular rate.

The main talking point out of the Quarter Finals have to be the United States achieving their goal of reaching the Semi Final and Chile's total dismantling of Mexico in their 7-0 win.

Only Colombia failed to win in the ninety minutes, but these matches go straight to penalties before the Final so I am not anticipating fatigue being a big issue for them. Instead I am looking forward to what should be two very good Semi Final games heading into the final two games of the tournament which will be played this weekend.

Tuesday 21st June

United States v Argentina Pick: The two Copa America Semi Finals look like they could provide some fireworks this week and the first between the United States and Argentina will pull in some big viewing numbers. The hosts USA have really taken to the Copa America so it is no surprise that there have been some suggestions they could become a permanent host of the event, and the side have not failed to impress on the field.

The 0-2 defeat to to Colombia looks long forgotten as the United States have won 3 straight games including impressing against Paraguay and Ecuador. Of course this has to be considered a test along the lines of what Colombia provided as Argentina will be bringing in a team that has scored plenty of goals in their four wins here.

Games between the nations have been tight the last couple of times, but those were international friendly games and the last of those came back in 2011.

Now the United States have to show they can contain Argentina as they will be put under pressure for long periods. The Venezuela Quarter Final would have encouraged the United States that if they can defend well, they will have chances against this Argentina backline and Jurgen Klinsmann has a chance to become a national here in his adopted country if he can lead the USA to the Final.

That just looks a big ask for me and I think Argentina are scoring too many goals for the United States to really look to contain them. I expect this to be competitive, but I can see a situation where a late Argentina break finishes off the Semi Final.

The Argentina defence does look vulnerable at times, but the attacking talent more than make up for that and I think Argentina win this by the same margin as Colombia did over the United States in the opening game of the tournament. The United States may have an impact in the scoreboard in this one, but Argentina to win by a couple of goals is my pick.


Wednesday 22nd June
Colombia v Chile Pick: The first Semi Final between the United States and Argentina will be played the day before this one, but Chile are favoured to make it a repeat of the 2015 Copa America Final.

That looks a big reaction to the 7-0 thumping of Mexico in the Quarter Final as Chile look to be rounding into form at just the right time, but Colombia might be another step up in competition.

There is a fear that Colombia might have peaked too early with an impressive win over the United States to open the tournament, but I wouldn't read too much into the goalless draw with Peru or the defeat to Costa Rica. Peru showed little desire to come out and play football, but Colombia were still unfortunate not to win that one in normal time, while the defeat to Costa Rica came against a second string Colombia team.

Colombia will find more space against Chile whose intention is to get forward and score goals and I can't see how these teams don't create chances against one another. Penalties will decide the winner if this match is tied after ninety minutes, but I can't see either side settling for that and I am looking for an attacking display from both Chile and Colombia.

Goals have been a feature of games between these nations with 5 of the last 7 seeing at least three goals shared out. At odds against, I am backing at least three goals to be shared out in the second of the Copa America Semi Finals.

MY PICKS: Argentina - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Colombia-Chile Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)

Quarter Final Final: 2-2, + 0.20 Units
Group Stage Final: 11-12, + 3.45 Units

Copa America 2016 Quarter Final Picks (June 16-18)

Copa America Quarter Final Picks
The expanded Copa America tournament has been positive and I think I much prefer the idea that the top two teams in each Group making the Quarter Finals compared with the previous format that saw four of twelve teams out of the competition after eighteen games are played.

Not many would have expected Brazil to make up one of the eight teams that were not making it through the Group Stage this time around, but that goal I have imaged above cost them their place. It was a clear handball from Peru and it was shocking the goal was allowed to stand, although the dismissal of Dunga after the tournament was no surprise.

Most of the other nations aside from Uruguay, whose failure has been covered up by Brazil's surprise defeat in the Groups, have made it through to the last eight. We should have four solid looking games to look forward to as we go forward and I am looking forward to the games this week.


Thursday 16th June
United States v Ecuador Pick: Any time you get to the Quarter Final of a major international tournament, the tension in the matches tends to rise with so much on the line. For both the United States and Ecuador, this game represents a big chance for one of these nations to perhaps become a surprise Semi Finalist and I am convinced both teams are very satisfied with the opposition they face in the last eight.

I wouldn't read too much into the narrow 1-0 win the United States had over Ecuador in the friendly games in preparation for Euro 2016. Friendlies usually have a lot of subs to take away some of the flow of the game and you have to think both teams will be more confident now with three games behind them in the Copa America.

One thing it does point to is a tight game and I would be surprised if we see something different to that. The United States have back to back clean sheets and Ecuador kept clean sheets in 2 of their 3 Group games and I don't think either will want to give too much away.

The layers are also expecting a tight game and have shrunk those prices, but I think they have underestimated the chance of one, or both, of these teams not scoring in regular time. Neither team will want to give anything away and both have shown they are very good defensively and the prices look tempting enough to back that to be the outcome of the first Copa America Quarter Final.


Friday 17th June
Peru v Colombia Pick: This is a difficult Quarter Final to read because I can't help think Colombia are a little short in the win-draw-win market to win this one in normal time. That might be down to how impressive Peru have looked in the tournament, and they have previous with two Semi Finals in the previous two Copa America tournaments.

The win over Brazil was more than a little controversial though for Peru and they surprised Ecuador early in that match before being pegged back to a 2-2 draw. It would be a surprise if Colombia came in without focus knowing a run to the Final is a real possibility with the way the draw has shaped up and you also can't ignore the goals that Colombia are scoring.

They have managed to score at least twice in 6 straight games which makes them a big threat to a Peru team that look to defend properly and hope for goals on the counter.

In this one, like many of these Knock Out ties, the first goal is going to be critical. You do have to feel that Colombia will be able to control the match if they are in that position, and their recent record against Peru is very strong with 3 wins from the last 5, although they haven't won any of their last 3 against them in the Copa America.

I just think Colombia are scoring plenty of goals at the moment and it might be difficult for Peru to match that output over the course of ninety minutes. A late goal for Colombia should produce the final nail in the Peru coffin and I will look for Colombia to win by two goals and cover the Asian Handicap.


Saturday 18th June
Argentina v Venezuela Pick: Throughout this Copa America tournament Venezuela have been able to exceed expectations but this would be bigger than anything before if they can beat the favourites Argentina. They have defended well in their games, but keeping clean sheets against Jamaica and a Uruguay team missing Luis Suarez is not the same as facing an Argentina team that have scored ten goals in three games.

It would be a historical moment for Venezuela who only beat Argentina for the first time in the last set of World Cup Qualifiers. Beating Argentina in a major international tournament would be the biggest result in the history of Venezuela, but I simply can't see that happening here.

This Argentina squad have so much attacking talent that it is going to take something special for Venezuela to keep them from taking over this game.

If Argentina get their noses in front, it will be very difficult for Venezuela to find the right balance to get back into this one and I think the favourites will be able to dominate this game. I can see Argentina being in a position to kill off Venezuela on the counter attack late in this game once their opponents begin chasing in Knock Out football and I will back Argentina to win this by at least two goals.


Mexico v Chile Pick: This might be the most competitive and exciting of the four Quarter Finals at the Copa America as Mexico face off against Chile. Both teams are likely to put some attacking football together and I can see this being very good for the fans in attendance with a Semi Final place on the line.

That Semi Final place might create tension but I do think both teams will feel they are better going forward than backwards and so should give it a real go with the attacking players on display.

I do favour Mexico on the current form to perhaps have too much for Chile, but I think the defending Champions will play their part in this one and I think the layers might be wrong at pricing up at least three goals as big as they have.

I do fear a situation where it is 1-1 going into the final fifteen minutes which might see both teams begin to be a little cautious, but I am expecting attacking football through the game and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.

MY PICKS: United States-Ecuador Both NOT to Score @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Colombia - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet365 (2 Units)
Argentina - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)
Mexico-Chile Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)

Quarter Final Update: 2-2, + 0.20 Units
Group Stage Final: 11-12, + 3.45 Units

Copa America Picks 2016 (June 11-14)

Copa America Group Stage Update

The final round of Group games in the Copa America will be played in the next few days and some of the Quarter Finalists have already been decided. Colombia, Mexico, Venezuela and Argentina will make up half of the last eight and the remaining four teams will earn their places in the coming days.

There are some big games in this round of games as those places are decided. The USA play Paraguay and Chile play Panama with the winning teams making it through to the last eight and both should be very interesting games to watch.

Group B is the most open with three teams fighting for two places in the Quarter Finals, although Ecuador failing to beat Haiti in the early game will allow Brazil and Peru to move through. However, an Ecuador win will mean Peru are likely going to have to beat Brazil if they are going to get through which would make the last game in the Group very, very intriguing.


At the moment Argentina remain strong favourites to win the Copa America with two impressive wins behind them and the attacking talent to give anyone problems. The big question will always be if Argentina can hold themselves together from an emotional stand point having lost the World Cup Final in 2014 and the Copa America Final in 2015.


Saturday 11th June
Group A will come to a close on Saturday and the first match between the USA and Paraguay looks to be the one where most of the attention will be turned towards.

USA v Paraguay Pick: There really isn't a lot to say about this match as the Group A of the Copa America is concluded on Saturday.

The United States will make it through to the Quarter Final if they avoid defeat, while Paraguay will likely have enough to do the same if they win this game. With a 4-0 defeat to their name, it would take something special for Costa Rica to get involved in the second place finish so this looks a straight fight between the United States and Paraguay.

The travelling that Paraguay have endured over the last ten days is tiring and I do wonder if that will take it out of them as they chase this game. The pressure is on Paraguay to get the goals they need to progress to the Quarter Final and that might see the United States get into a position to pick them off late on.

Jurgen Klinsmann will likely look for his team to defend properly and use the counter attack to their advantage. That should lead to late chances as Paraguay try and score the winning goal and I will back the United States to win and move into the Quarter Final.


Colombia v Costa Rica Pick: This looked a very difficult Group from which to pick two Quarter Finalists, but Colombia won their first two games and have comfortably moved into the last eight. There will likely be changes to their starting eleven as they employ the squad and rest some of the star players, but I still believe they will be too strong for Costa Rica.

I am not sure how high the Costa Rica motivation will be considering they are out of the tournament after their 4-0 loss at the hands of the United States. Technically a draw in the other game will keep Costa Rica alive, but the goal difference is a huge blow and unlikely to be overturned in this one game.

If they are out of the tournament, I am not sure Costa Rica will be that interested in this game and that may allow Colombia to dictate things.

I even think a second string team might have a little too much for Costa Rica who have struggled for goals in the tournament. I think that is enough to think a small interest in Colombia winning with a clean sheet is the best way to manage this game.


Sunday 12th June
Group B was the most open Group left in the Copa America as we get through to the final round of games. The Quarter Final opponents have been set with the winner of the Group facing Colombia in the next Round and the Runners Up taking on the hosts USA.

Ecuador are up first and failing to win will mean Brazil and Peru are through to the Quarter Finals before their game, but a win for Ecuador by more than a single goal will put them through to the last eight. In that case it will be Brazil moving through if they avoid defeat and Peru needing to win to upset one of the favourites.

Ecuador v Haiti Pick: There is so much on the line for Ecuador and that has seen the layers shrink the margins on them winning this game. They look very short, but Haiti are one of the weaker teams in the tournament and it is hard to find an angle for this one.


Brazil v Peru Pick: An opening 0-0 draw with Ecuador was not well received by the Brazilian fans, but their team bounced back with a 7-1 hammering of Haiti in their second game. That results means they will be through if they can earn a point in this one and that is regardless of the Ecuador performance in the earlier game.

Playing for a draw is not really the way Brazil approach games even with the pragmatic Dunga in the managerial seat. Dunga was not the flashiest player in his days, but he can't afford for Brazil to fail to impress with the pressure beginning to build on him after a poor last twelve months.

The Copa America might be taking second place in priorities behind the Olympic Games, but Brazil will still be expected to have an impact in the tournament. A potential Quarter Final with Colombia looks a tough one, but for now Brazil should have too much for a Peru team who perhaps were fortunate to earn a 2-2 draw with Ecuador in their last game.

That result means Peru will likely need a win in this game as Ecuador should have enough to surpass the one goal by which Peru beat Haiti and overtake Peru on goal difference even if they can manage a draw in this match. I expect that to open things up in this match as both teams will likely leave plenty of spaces if they are chasing the game and both have looked vulnerable defensively at times.

Last year they met in the Group Stage of the Copa America and Brazil were 2-1 winners and the last three games have featured at least three goals being shared out. With the Quarter Final place up for grabs, I can see one of the teams needing to chase and that resulting in at least three goals to be scored in the match.


Monday 13th June
It is time for Group C to be decided between Mexico and Venezuela as both teams have already moved in the Quarter Finals behind two wins from two games. That has seen Uruguay, surprisingly, and Jamaica, unsurprisingly out of the Copa America.

Mexico v Venezuela Pick: The winners of Group C, and avoiding Argentina, will be decided on Monday as Mexico take on Venezuela. With an out of sorts Chile looking most likely to finish second, there is a real motivation to win the Group and Mexico have the edge as they can avoid defeat to finish above Venezuela.

With a strong defensive record in recent games, Mexico have to be thinking they have enough to keep Venezuela from getting on the scoreboard. I have to say that Venezuela have been a little fortunate to have two wins from two in the Group and Mexico have looked a much better side than them, but the confidence in the Venezuela squad has to be in a very good place at this moment in time.

They are still one of the poorer teams from South America though and I don't think Venezuela will be able to keep Mexico at bay in this one. Ten man Jamaica gave Venezuela plenty to think about and the feeling is that Mexico will catch them if they have to push on later in the match in a bid to avoid Argentina in the Quarter Final.

The Mexicans have a very strong record against Venezuela with nines win from the last eleven games against them, and I like them to win this one with a clean sheet.


Uruguay v Jamaica Pick: Luis Suarez was visibly upset that he wasn't able to anything to aid his country in their 0-1 loss to Venezuela which put Uruguay out of the tournament. It is unlikely he will be risked in this 'dead rubber' but I still think the South American nation can end their Copa America with a win under their belt.

They are up against a Jamaica team who have also been eliminated and who have lost all five games they have played in the Copa America in 2015 and 2016. Jamaica have not scored in any of those games either and I am not sure how much motivation is left with the tournament already at a close.

You can easily say the same when it comes to Uruguay, but I think there is more quality at their disposal and look to be worth backing to win with a clean sheet. I would keep stakes to a minimum though with neither team having much to play for, but Uruguay have the firepower to earn a narrow win against a Jamaica team that haven't been able to bridge the gap to the extra quality in the Copa America over the last twelve months.


Tuesday 14th June
The final Group will put together the final two Quarter Final matches as Chile look to avoid a surprise exit of the Copa America in the Group Stage just twelve months after winning the competition at home.

Chile v Panama Pick: A controversial penalty deep into injury time helped Chile beat Bolivia and get into a position where a draw on Tuesday should be enough to see them through to the Quarter Final. That luxury may be all important for Chile who have looked like they are struggling to pick up their play so far in this tournament and have been a little short of ideas in the final third.

They should have more room in this one as Panama will have to win if they are going to follow Argentina through to the last eight. That means there is going to be times when they perhaps push forward and leave spaces behind them, while Panama have also had to play for a long period with ten men in the loss to Argentina which will have tired out some legs.

Panama did survive for a while until Lionel Messi took the game over, but they will have physical issues if they are chasing this game. They also have the longer journey to make between games two and three compared with Chile and I think there is enough quality in the Chile team to hit Panama on the counter and get over this Asian Handicap.

With the quality in their ranks, Chile will expect to at least match the Brazil 2-0 win over Panama in the friendly games prior to the Copa America. As there is more onus on Panama to get forward, this looks like being a game where Chile can perhaps finish the contest late on.


Argentina v Bolivia Pick: Argentina have beaten Chile and Panama in their first couple of games and underlined their status as favourites to win the Copa America in the process of doing that. Now they are looking to confirm their place in the Quarter Finals as Group winners and then push on to the rest of the tournament.

They have looked far too good for the three teams in the Group and I think it will be tough for Bolivia to pick themselves up from a really disappointing defeat to Chile. They must be feeling hard done by as Bolivia had a penalty controversially given against them in injury time in that loss which put them out of the tournament and now they have little to play for.

It is going to be difficult for Bolivia having played their last game on the East Coast in New England and now travelling to the Seattle on the West Coast to close their tournament. There will likely be changes to the Argentina team with top spot close to being assured through the first two games, but this is a team with plenty of depth and Bolivia can't rely on that to help them to a surprise result.

Personally I can't see that happening and I don't think Argentina will take their eye off the prize just yet. While it will be tougher for them as the tournament goes on, this is the time Argentina can keep the fans believing with a fourth straight win over Bolivia. The previous three have come with clean sheets and it took a very late goal from Chile to prevent Argentina having back to back clean sheets in the Group Stage.

I think Bolivia will need a special moment to score their goal here and I will back Argentina to win with a clean sheet.

MY PICKS: USA to Win @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Colombia Win to Nil @ 2.63 Coral (1 Unit)
Brazil-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Mexico Win to Nil @ 2.70 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Uruguay Win to Nil @ 2.75 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Chile - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Argentina Win to Nil @ 1.73 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Copa America Match Day 3 Update: 4-3, + 3.21 Units
Copa America Match Day 2 Final: 4-4, - 0.36 Units
Copa America Match Day 1 Final: 3-5, + 0.60 Units

Copa America Picks 2016 (June 7-10)

Copa America Centenario Group Stage Update

The first round of fixtures have been completed in the Copa America and it has been a slow start to the competition.

The defeat for the United States in the opening game might have dented some of the enthusiasm of the fans, but they are far from out of the tournament. Mexico have a huge following here and could easily generate plenty of interest at their games, while the fans might be hoping the star players like Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi are back sooner rather than later.

For the likes of Uruguay, Brazil and Chile, there is plenty of room for improvement to show there are going to be some legitimate challengers to Champions elect Argentina. They all have big second games in the Copa America to keep their dream alive of getting through and winning this tournament and the next few days could start eliminating teams and setting up the Quarter Finals.


Tuesday 7th June
United States v Costa Rica Pick: Group A begins the second round of fixtures in the section on Tuesday and the hosts are in a very tough position having been the only team to fall to a defeat in the first round of games. However the United States will have been pleased to see Costa Rica and Paraguay share the points as they will know two wins from their remaining games will see them through to the Quarter Finals.

Games against Costa Rica have generally been very competitive and I think the tension that is going to surround the match is likely to make this one a similar case.

A defeat for the United States ends their interest in the Copa America and so they will likely be a little more cautious so they don't end in a big first half hole as they were in against Colombia. For Costa Rica avoiding defeat would likely leave them in a position where they control their own destiny in the final round of games, although that would come against Colombia.

As I've said, the United States versus Costa Rica tends to be a tight contest with these teams amongst the best in the CONCACAF region. It has to be noted that 4 of the last 5 games between these teams have ended with a 1-0 scoreline for one of these teams and goals could be at a premium in this match too.

Picking a winner is tough but the United States look very short at odds on to win this one considering the performance in the first game. Costa Rica have proven tough to beat in major international tournament matches with 7 straight draws after the result with Paraguay so I do think the draw is a big player, the first between these teams since October 2009.

However, that draw would likely be another goalless one and I will back under 1.5 goals to be scored in the match as this could easily be another 1-0 scoreline for one of these teams.


Colombia v Paraguay Pick: I did predict a tight start to Group A with all four teams looking fairly evenly matched, but Colombia did surprise me with their win over the United States. That means Colombia have control of the Group and a win on Tuesday would virtually assure them of winning the section and earn an 'easier' Quarter Final.

The 0-2 win over the USA coupled with Costa Rica and Paraguay playing out a goalless draw means Colombia are not under as much pressure as Paraguay to win this game. That pressure could be increased if there is a winner in the other game in the Group which is played ahead of this one and forcing the tempo has not really worked too much for Paraguay.

They have shown they are tough to beat though and Colombia do have their hands full with them in this one. Colombia might have won 3 in a row against Paraguay, but the latter have saved their best performances for the Copa America and have to be respected as Finalists and Semi Finalists in the last two editions of the competition.

I do think Paraguay will make this a tough game for Colombia as they play a very physical game which can break up the flow of a game. However I think Colombia have had a morale boosting win over the United States that they can build upon and they might be able to pick off Paraguay late if the latter are chasing a winning goal.

At just under odds against, I will back Colombia to beat Paraguay for a fourth time in a row in this one.


Wednesday 8th June
Brazil v Haiti Pick: The Brazil team were booed off on Saturday as they failed to break down Ecuador, but were perhaps lucky to come away with a draw in that opening game of Group B. Brazil might have left some big names out of the squad, but this was a Group they were expected to win and so the pressure is on Dunga to achieve a much more positive result in the second round of games.

He can't complain about the opponents as Brazil face Haiti who have lost 5 of their last 7 games and who have scored just two goals in that run. With a win over Panama in preparation for the Copa America, Brazil will come into this game as the big favourites to win, but they have to show more in the final third.

A Brazil team lacking creativity is a sad sight for football fans but that is what the current crop are producing and they look a little blunt without Neymar leading the line.

If Haiti can defend properly through the ninety minutes, there is a chance they can keep Brazil at bay but it looks a long shot and I expect Brazil to win. They are being asked to cover a very big Asian Handicap which I would not trust Brazil to do at this moment of time when a win is the most important element.

Instead I will back the Haiti struggles to continue in front of goal and I will back Brazil to win this game with a clean sheet.


Ecuador v Peru Pick: The second round of fixtures in these Group Stages are usually the key ones when it comes to deciding the two teams that come out of a four team Group. For Peru avoiding defeat might give them the edge over Ecuador and Brazil when it comes to potential Quarter Final spots, although there is still plenty of motivation to record the win that would put them through to the last eight in the Copa America again.

It is a much easier situation for Ecuador who will feel they should have three points on the board already having been denied a winner by the linesman against Brazil.

If Ecuador lose they will be on the brink of exiting this tournament, while a draw would only be helpful if they can assure they have a better goal difference than their rivals for a last eight place in their last game against Haiti. That is a risk to take, but Ecuador do look the stronger team and will expect they can win their remaining two games.

Their poor performances in the Copa America have to be a concern despite Qualifying for the World Cup in 2002, 2006 and 2014. In that time Ecuador have failed to make it through to the Quarter Final of the Copa America even during a time when only four teams would be knocked out in the Group Stage and I do have to be a little worried about that record.

However I think Ecuador are better than Peru and I will be looking for them to prove that if they can get close to the level they produced against Brazil in their opening game in the United States. It will likely be a close game with Peru happy to have another point on the board, but I think Ecuador will have a couple of chances and can win this one.


Thursday 9th June
Uruguay v Venezuela Pick: This is a difficult spot for Uruguay to be in having conceded two goals late on in their 3-1 defeat to Mexico in the opening game of the Group. That defeat coupled with Venezuela's win over Jamaica means Uruguay have to really believe they need to win this second game if they are going to make it through to the Quarter Final.

A draw would leave their destiny in the hands of Mexico and Venezuela who will meet in the final game in the section and that could easily result in a convenient result to make sure both teams are through to the Quarter Final. Uruguay can't really allow for that to happen and I can see them coming out with a purpose in this one to secure the three points.

Venezuela have not played well against their South American rivals in recent months and their 1-0 win over Jamaica was fortunate despite having a man advantage for close to 70 minutes of the game. They will have to be a lot better to prevent Uruguay from taking the chances they offered to Jamaica and Venezuela had won 1 of their last 15 games before that victory to open this Copa America tournament.

It would obviously be a lot better for Uruguay if they had Luis Suarez back for this game, but even without their superstar they should have too much for Venezuela. I will back them to get their Copa America tournament back on track with a win in this second game and move back alongside Venezuela in the Group.


Mexico v Jamaica Pick: This looked a strong Mexico squad that had been put together for the Copa America compared with the one that went to Chile last year and the momentum they had going into the tournament had them down as a 'dark horse'. More of their fans might have the belief they can go far in the tournament having beaten Uruguay in the first game in the tournament and Mexico will be expected to have almost secured a Quarter Final place by the end of this one.

A win would virtually eliminate Jamaica so you have to think they will give this a go, but Mexico are very much aware of their strengths and will be expected to be too good. They showed the difference in their 3-1 win over Jamaica in the Gold Cup Final last year and I think Mexico will be too good for them again.

I did consider Mexico to win this one with a clean sheet having put together so many of those over the last few weeks, but the goal conceded to Jamaica in their Final last year is a concern. Add in the chances Jamaica created in their first game and the Reggae Boys could be a tough match for Mexico.

However they can't afford to lose and that is where I think Mexico will take advantage as they showed some quality counter attacking against Uruguay. I can see a position where Mexico are leading this match going into the final fifteen minutes and scoring another goal late on to cover the Asian Handicap and that is what I will be backing.

Only Colombia's win over the United States has been won by more than a single goal margin up to the time of writing, but I can see Mexico doing that here.


Friday 10th June
Chile v Bolivia Pick: The 2-1 loss to Argentina is a big blow to Chile, but they should still be good enough to get out of the Group and from there the defending Champions will be dangerous. They have to pick up their form and rediscover what got them through to the Copa America title last year, but I think facing a team like Bolivia will aid Chile in that regards.

This is a team they have dominated for the most part in recent games and Chile hammered Bolivia in the Group Stage last year. While I do think Bolivia will give Chile more to think about than in their 5-0 loss last year, it would be a big surprise if Chile were not able to win this game and then follow that with a victory over Panama.

We know where Bolivia stand having lost to Panama and a loss here ends their tournament so you have to think there will be that pressure to push forward if they are behind. They are conceding goals at an alarming rate though and Chile have the firepower to expose those vulnerabilities so it is no surprise the layers are asking them to cover more than two goals on the Asian Handicap.

Instead of looking for Chile to do that, considering their own defensive issues in recent games, I will back these teams to combine for at least three goals in this second game of the Group.


Argentina v Panama Pick: Lionel Messi might just be rested for the rest of the Group Stage after Argentina beat Chile without him even if the fans might not be the happiest about that. For the long term goals of winning this tournament, resting Messi and getting him fit for the Quarter Final and beyond would make the most sense for Argentina.

There is enough attacking talent at their disposal to win this game without Messi and Argentina go into the match as the big favourite to win. It would be a huge upset if they were to be beaten by Panama, but Argentina will need to be at their flowing best in the final third to break down a team that will defend deep.

Panama might even feel this is a 'shot to nothing' for them to make it through to the Quarter Final as they will likely have that decided in a final game with Chile even if they lose this one. They can then take it to Argentina but I can't see how this will be much different from their 2-0 loss to Brazil in the friendly games prior to the Copa America.

With the players in the forward areas, I expect Argentina to win this one by a couple of goals and book their place in the last eight.

MY PICKS: USA-Costa Rica Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.80 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Colombia @ 2.00 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Brazil Win to Nil @ 1.53 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Ecuador @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)
Uruguay @ 1.67 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Mexico - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chile-Bolivia Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.67 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Argentina - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.60 Bet365 (2 Units)

Copa America Match Day 2 Update: 4-4, - 0.36 Units
Copa America Match Day 1 Final: 3-5, + 0.60 Units

Copa America 2016 Picks (June 3-6)

Copa America Centenario 2016

The focus in Europe is clearly on the European Championships which will begin a week after the Copa America, but you can't fall asleep on this competition.

I think it is unfortunate that Premier Sports have earned the rights to show the entire tournament as that is yet another subscription channel in the United Kingdom and it could have the Copa America flying under the radar somewhat.

This has always been one of those competitions that I have enjoyed and while the expanded edition this year has introduced a few more nations, I do think the big hitters from South America are going to dominate proceedings.

It does look a very good opportunity for Argentina to end their twenty-three year wait for a major international tournament, although this is a team that has been beaten at the business end of both of the last two big tournaments they have played. Germany beat Argentina in extra time of the World Cup Final and Chile were too good in a penalty shoot out in the Copa America last year so there are some mental scars for them to overcome.

Brazil might be focusing on the Olympics which are played at home to erase the painful memories of their own World Cup campaign and the last two Copa America tournaments have both resulted in Quarter Final exits.

I do think the likes of Colombia, Ecuador and Uruguay would need the rub of the green to win the tournament so the big threat to Argentina may come from the defending Champions Chile. Those two teams meet in the Group Stage and that could potentially be the Final for a second year in a row in the Copa America.

Of the invited teams, the United States and Costa Rica may feel they have a very strong chance of a good showing, but it is the Mexicans who look like they could go deepest. However they are in Group C which means a Quarter Final against either Argentina or Chile and the feeling is that the latter two nations would prove too good in a Knock Out tie.

The USA and Costa Rica are in a very difficult Group A and there is no guarantee that either will make it through to the Quarter Finals, while surprise package at the Gold Cup in 2015, Jamaica, are in a very difficult Group C.

This tournament will actually come to a conclusion within the month of June having started a week before the Euro 2016 tournament, but it certainly could provide some very interesting late night viewing once people have had their fill of the action in France.

June looks like being a football fan's perfect month to fill the void before the return of domestic football in August.

I will be making picks from the Copa America through the tournament, but I am going to break down the Group Stage Picks into their 'Match Days'. So on this thread I will make picks from the opening games of the four Groups before setting up a new thread for the second round and third round of matches respectively.

Individual threads for the Quarter Finals, Semi Finals and the Final will also be created as it feels the best way to limit the information within one post and easier to access.

Hopefully June follows from a very positive 2016 to this point for the football picks after a pretty horrendous August-December.

Friday 3rd June

The hosts have the honour of opening up the Copa America 2016 on Friday 3rd June although the game won't be played until the early hours of Saturday morning for those of us in Europe.

United States v Colombia Pick: I can imagine most people in Europe are very much focused on the Euro 2016 tournament which is a week away from beginning, but in North and South America it is the Copa America which is king this month.

The United States have the honour of hosting the first ever tournament that is being played outside of South America and the competition is attracting plenty of interest. How long that lasts could be related to how far the United States are able to get into the tournament, although they will be challenged in a very strong looking Group.

Facing off against Colombia in the opening game is going to be a big test for the United States despite their winning run entering the Copa America. This does look the hardest game they will have in the Group even if I am not overlooking the damage Paraguay and Costa Rica could potentially cause in the section.

The Colombians are also on a winning run entering the tournament, but they have to be worried about the lack of playing time their star player James Rodriguez has had. Yes he will be fresh, but finding a rhythm could potentially take time too in unfamiliar conditions.

Group games where only the top two teams are going to make it through to the Knock Out Stages tend to be cautious in the first game. Neither team will want to lose and be put on the brink of elimination and so teams tend to lean towards the 'must not lose' side of things.

I can see this one playing out in that manner even if the quality does make me favour Colombia as the more likely winner. However I think I will begin this tournament by having a small interest in the opening game of the Copa America ending with both teams sharing a point and hoping to come through the Group against the other two teams in the section.


Saturday 4th June
The hosts might be opening the tournament on Friday, but Saturday will see the Copa America really get going as three games are scheduled back to back, including the Brazilian's getting their campaign going.

Costa Rica v Paraguay Pick: The opening game of Group A is going to be played on Friday night so this game comes the day after when both Costa Rica and Paraguay will know what is constituting a really good result.

I am not sure that both Costa Rica and Paraguay are looking at the other as the weakest team in the section and that usually will see a response from the players with a little more desire to secure the three points. This does look a Group that will go down to the wire though with the four teams all surely believing they can make it through to the Quarter Finals and can I see all of the games in Group A being fairly tight and competitive.

That goes for this one where neither team will want to lose and be left in a very difficult position when it comes to making it through to the last eight.

For all of the success that Paraguay have had in the Copa America in the last two editions of the tournament, it has to be noted that Paraguay have won 1 of their last 14 games in the Copa America. That is hard to imagine for a team that has reached a Final and a Semi Final in the last two tournaments, and 8 of those 14 games have ended in draws.

Even with that in mind, my slight lean does go towards Paraguay to make a winning start, but Costa Rica are a team that drew all 4 games at the Gold Cup last year and I think backing the draw for a small interest makes enough sense to do that.


Haiti v Peru Pick: While I have tended to think the opening games in the Group Stage of major international tournaments go towards the more cautious end of the spectrum, matches like this one could be a little different.

The reason is that both Haiti and Peru have to look at the other and think anything less than a win would likely result in their exit from the tournament. With Brazil and Ecuador to come, you have to think that is the right way of thinking and that might lead to a more open game than the early stages of a tournament usually dictate.

Peru have shown they have the beating of teams from Haiti's level having done that in friendly games against Trinidad & Tobago and El Salvador. Both of those wins saw Peru score at least three times and I expect them to look to get on the front foot in this one and put Haiti under pressure.

You have to respect the way Haiti performed at the Gold Cup last year so they have tournament experience, but the level they face here will be considerably better. Haiti did give Colombia some trouble in a recent friendly before being reduced to ten men, but they won't be overawed in this one and I think they will try and give it a go.

The edge should land in favour of Peru with the extra experience at this level of competition but I will look for the game to surprise the layers and back at least three goals to be shared out at odds against.


Brazil v Ecuador Pick: The depleted Brazil squad might not have the recognisable names that many would be looking for, but there is still plenty of quality retained by Dunga for the Copa America. There will be a real expectation for Brazil to surpass the Quarter Final Stage which has done for them in back to back Copa America tournaments, but the first game in the United States will be a big test for them.

The Copa America hasn't agreed with Ecuador in recent years, but a strong start to the World Cup Qualifiers has them going into Group B as the second favourites to qualify for the Quarter Finals. Losing the first game would make it very difficult for Ecuador especially if there is a winner in the Haiti-Peru game, but both of those nations will be ones that Ecuador expect to beat.

You can imagine this first game being closely contested with neither team wanting to lose and being put into that difficult position in the Group. The big question for Ecuador will be how much belief they have to take on a Brazil squad missing Neymar but pushing too far could allow their more illustrious opponents to hit them hard on the counter attack.

I do think Brazil will have a slight edge in this one and I do think they can win this one, although it will be anything but easy.

Instead of backing Brazil at odds against, I think they can be backed to win this game by exactly one goal, a margin in which they won both games at the Copa America in 2015. That looks the most likely outcome for this first game for both of these nations and I will have a small interest in that occurring.


Sunday 5th June
The first two Groups will have gotten through their first round of games, but Sunday will move to Group C where Mexico and Uruguay are expected to dominate. However, if there is a winner when the two underdogs play one another in the opening game of the Group, that winner might be in a strong position to upset one of the two favourites to Qualify for the Quarter Finals.

Jamaica v Venezuela Pick: The layers have tabbed Venezuela as the favourites to win this opening game in Group C and I have to say I am not in agreement with them. While Venezuela are playing in the stronger continent, draws in friendly games against Galicia, Panama and Guatemala are hardly going to inspire confidence in their ability to perform in the United States.

They are also going up against a Jamaica team that shocked Chile in a friendly last week and have solid tournament experience with a run to the Gold Cup Final in 2015. The three losses in the Copa America last season in the Group came against Uruguay, Paraguay and Argentina and Jamaica lost each of those games 1-0 against better teams than this Venezuela one.

Neither team can really point to a deep run of form to back them with confidence but I can see Wes Morgan trying to inspire his team-mates to follow the Leicester City story. Getting out of the Group won't match up with winning the Premier League, but it would be a huge achievement for Jamaica and they can make a strong start to that end in this match in my opinion.

I just can't help feel the wrong team is being set as the favourite in this one with Jamaica likely to be a little more used to the conditions they will see in the United States. I did consider backing Jamaica to win this game at big odds, but instead will try the more cautious approach and simply look to back them in the 'Draw No Bet' market to at least avoid defeat if they can't quite win the game.

They are odds against in that market and I think Jamaica are worth chancing at that price against a Venezuela team that have been out of sorts for some time.


Mexico v Uruguay Pick: The expected absence of Luis Suarez for Uruguay coupled with the improved performances of Mexico have seen the price shrink on the Mexicans winning this opening game of Group C.

There is no doubt that the majority of the support in the stadiums in the United States will be for Mexico, unless the hosts are playing, and that should make it feel like a home game for the Mexican team. With a stronger squad than they brought to Chile for the Copa America last year and with a Gold Cup success behind them, Mexico can make a very strong start to this tournament.

Goals have been at a premium in the opening games of the Copa America and it might only take a single one to win this game. With Uruguay missing Suarez and Mexico having in-form Javier Hernandez leading the line, I will back Mexico to get that goal and move into a strong position in Group C to Qualify for the Quarter Finals.


Monday 6th June
Panama v Bolivia Pick: The layers are siding with Panama in this match and I think that has a lot to do with the run that Bolivia have been on with their 9 losses in 10 games. It has to be said that the majority of those games have been against better teams than Panama and it is hard to back a team that has failed to score in 4 of their last 5 games.

Defensively Bolivia have been poor too and Panama showed in the Gold Cup last season that they are a tough team to beat. Mexico and the United States both failed to do that in normal time and Panama did reach the Semi Final of that tournament, but this looks to be a match that could decide which of these sides finish 3rd in a very tough Group.

Goals have not exactly been flowing in the Copa America so far with a grand total of three goals in the first four games played at the tournament. This looks another that might need a single goal to decide the winner and I will have a small interest on this match featuring one or fewer goals on the day.

A single goal might be enough to win this game and both attacks have struggled so backing fewer than two goals looks the call.


Argentina v Chile Pick: There was a measure of revenge for Argentina over Chile for the Copa America Final loss last year when they beat them in a World Cup Qualifier in March this season. However, the Argentina fans have been starved of a major international tournament and will be looking for this extremely talented squad to end the twenty-three year wait between trophies.

The injury to Lionel Messi is a concern but Argentina would get through this Group even if they wanted to make sure Messi is fully fit before the Quarter Final against either Mexico or Uruguay who look the teams likely to come through Group C.

The positioning for Argentina in the Group could be decided by this game and Chile have the quality to really hurt them even if they have been in poor form recently.

I think the fact this is coming early in the Group Stage could see both teams give this a go knowing a win likely locks up top spot in the Group. Even a losing team would expect to beat Panama and Bolivia to make their way into the Quarter Final and that might lead to both Argentina and Chile perhaps being more adventurous than the majority of the early Group matches have been in the Copa America.

I will look for the teams to use their attacking talent to produce one of the better games in the opening round of Group matches and I will back these teams to provide at least three goals shared out.

MY PICKS: USA-Colombia Draw @ 3.20 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Costa Rica-Paraguay Draw @ 3.10 Betfair Sportsbook (1 Unit)
Haiti-Peru Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.30 Coral (2 Units)
Brazil to Win by One Goal @ 3.60 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Jamaica Draw No Bet @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Mexico @ 2.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Panama-Bolivia Under 1.5 Goals @ 2.63 William Hill (1 Unit)
Argentina-Chile Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Copa America Group Stage Match Day 1 Update: 3-5, + 0.60 Units