NFL Week 3 Picks 2024 (Thursday 19th September-Monday 23rd September)

It has been a very tough couple of weeks as the NFL season has gotten underway and so you have to appreciate being able to put a two positive weeks together.

Upsets have been rife early in the season and we are still getting to grips with the teams that we are seeing.

Some have lived up to billing- the Buffalo Bills, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Houston Texans are all sitting at 2-0 and looking like they will be taking part in the post-season as long as they can steer clear of injuries.

Others have been about as poor as expected, most notably the Carolina Panthers and New York Giants, but it is the surprising teams, both good and bad, that have made it tough for all picking games from week to week.

The Baltimore Ravens, Los Angeles Rams have been really disappointing in opening up at 2-0, while not many would have predicted what we have seen from the 2-0 New Orleans Saints.

It is still very early in the season and overreacting to what we have seen so far can be a mistake, especially with such a small sample size in front of us. More information will be learned in Week 3 and Week 4 and by then you will really begin to have a better idea about where teams are and what their prospects for the season could be.

Injuries have been the major talking point early in the season and those are going to have a big impact on the prospects for teams around the League.

Tua Tagovailoa took a nasty hit towards the end of the Miami Dolphins loss to the Buffalo Bills and it has led to another concussion and talk about whether he should be calling time on his career rather than risking long-term issues. For now the Dolphins are trying to give their Quarter Back time and as much support as he needs, but this could be a team that will need a new starter rather than relying on what they have in the building, especially if Tagovailoa is forced to sit out for the rest of the season.

The Green Bay Packers have also suffered an injury to their starting Quarter Back, but Jordan Love is expected back sooner than later- they may be able to give him more time if they can play as they did in the win over the Indianapolis Colts in Week 2.

It isn't just Quarter Backs, but there have been injuries at key positions up and down the NFL early in the season and those are going to have an impact on the abilities of teams, which makes its an early minefield to negotiate.

Some are hoping that the New York Giants will be ready to sit Daniel Jones and move on from him at Quarter Back, but it was a surprise to see the Panthers decide to sit Bryce Young after just two weeks of play under his new Head Coach.

You cannot disguise how bad Young has been, but it feels like a massive move from the Panthers who had selected him with the first overall NFL Draft Pick just eighteen months ago. Bryce Young has not had much support around him, but the Quarter Back does not look fit for purpose from what he has put on tape.

Even then, you would think the Panthers would want to give the Number 1 Draft Pick as many as the reps as possible just to make sure they are convinced about what Young can, or cannot, do going forward. Worst case would be that the Panthers get the Number 1 Pick again if Bryce Young continued to play badly, but the feeling of Head Coach Dave Canales is that Andy Dalton gives his team the best chance to win and there is now every chance that Young will go down as arguably the biggest bust of a generation.

Week 3 gets underway with a Thursday Night Football game between two AFC East teams with 1-1 records.

There are teams under pressure to avoid falling into 0-3 holes and others will be looking to bounce back from disappointing Week 2 outings.

Big underdogs have been thriving early in the season with plenty of those winning outright, never mind covering with the points in the pocket, and it does feel like the season is still settling down somewhat and so largely keeping stakes to a minimum may be the plan for now.

Two good weeks are in the books to open the season, but it is just an open and there is a long way to go between now and the Super Bowl in February 2025.

New England Patriots @ New York Jets Pick: There will be a lot of 'Survivor' players cursing the New England Patriots (1-1) were upsetting the odds in Week 1 of the regular season, but Jerod Mayo and the organisation bounced back down to earth with a bang in Week 2.

A home loss to the Seattle Seahawks will have hurt, especially as the Patriots had a chance to win that game before giving up a drive that ended with a late Field Goal to require Overtime. And this Thursday Night Football scheduled game in Week 3 might be coming up at a poor time for New England who have been hit hard by the early injury bug.

They are facing a Divisional rival on a short week when heading to the Meadowlands to take on the New York Jets (1-1) who recovered from an opening loss to the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Tennessee Titans. One or two poor decisions from Will Levis cost the Titans and helped Aaron Rodgers win his first game in the Jets uniform having recovered from an injury that cost him all but four plays in the 2023 season.

There will be some mental obstacles to overcome considering that injury occurred in this Stadium, but Aaron Rodgers will be keen to make up for missing last season and by making a statement in this opening game of Week 3.

He should be able to have a good outing against the New England Patriots, even if this Defensive unit has begun the season in good form. A healthy Patriots Defense would be a challenge, but it is the injuries in the Linebacker position that suggests the Jets can have a strong outing on this side of the ball.

Aaron Rodgers has players who can make plays for him and exploit the holes in the middle of the New England Defensive scheme, while it may also be possible for the Jets to lean on the running game more than they have so far this season. The Offensive Line has only opened up running lanes that have led to 84.5 yards per game at 3.9 yards per carry, but there is every chance that Breece Hall and Braelon Allen can contribute both on the ground and catching the ball out of the backfield as they did in the win over the Titans.

This should put the New York Jets in a position to put up enough points to secure a cover of this point spread, although the one concern is the scheduling. Playing on Monday Night Football in Week 1 and having consecutive road games on both the East and West Coast is tough, but added to that is the fact that this Week 3 game is being played on Thursday.

It is a concern when you think of some of the Defensive problems the Jets have had early this season, which was supposed to be a strength of this team. However, you do have to question whether the New England Patriots can do enough with the ball in their hand to give the Jets something to think about, especially with the amount of injuries on this side of the ball.

The Offensive Line could be down a number of starters, or at least have starters who are limited.

In the first two games, New England have been able to pile up the yards on the ground and that would be important for them in this game to just keep Aaron Rodgers and company cooling off on the sidelines. Shortening the game will make it that much easier to cover with this many points in their pocket, but those injuries or limitations on the Offensive Line may make it that much tougher to run the ball.

It would also mean Jacoby Brissett could find himself constantly harassed by this Jets pass rush if they are behind the chains- Penalties on the backup Offensive Linemen will likely pile up and this should mean New York are keeping the Patriots behind the chains.

Hunter Henry will look to make plays for his Quarter Back, but the Patriots have struggled for consistency on this side of the ball already and now could be in a world of trouble with the injuries on the Offensive Line.

Jacoby Brissett has been able to look after the ball, but that might be more difficult if the onus is on him to make bigger plays and the edge has to be with the New York Jets.

It is a big point spread number and the big underdogs have been barking very loud through the first two weeks of the season.

However, the short week and playing after needing to go through Overtime works against the Patriots and also means they are going to struggle to suit up their injured players. This should see their Divisional rival work a way past the New England Patriots as Aaron Rodgers shows the home fans what might have been if he was available last season.

The Jets beat New England on the road in their last game in 2023 and they did that as the underdog- however, it has been a series that has recently been dominated by the favourite who had been 6-0 against the spread prior to that meeting in January and Aaron Rodgers and the Jets can win and cover here.

Philadelphia Eagles @ New Orleans Saints Pick: There are always going to be one or two teams that surprise early in the season and the New Orleans Saints (2-0) most definitely land in that category.

Blowing out the awful Carolina Panthers at home is one thing, but crushing the Dallas Cowboys on the road is a big statement and Head Coach Dennis Allen will just feel his seat cooling down having come into the season under significant pressure.

Another Head Coach on a short leash is Nick Sirianni who had his entire Coaching staff changed in the off-season, but who has held onto the top job with the Philadelphia Eagles (1-1). The Super Bowl loss is a little over eighteen months ago, but it feels a lot stronger and the Head Coach will be having nightmares about the Saquon Barkley dropped catch that would have effectively seen the team win their Monday Night Football game against the Atlanta Falcons.

Instead of running out the clock or scoring a Touchdown to move two scores clear, the Eagles had to settle for a Field Goal and ultimately that allowed the Falcons to drive down the field and win the game. Nick Sirianni will know that he is going to be facing a lot of criticism if his team falls below 0.500 early in the 2024 season after a miserable end to 2023 and so there is a lot of pressure on his team.

And with that in mind, Philadelphia could have asked for a much better opponent than having to go out on the road to face the New Orleans Saints.

Both teams have potentially distracting games on deck, but the Eagles are on a short week having played last in Week 2 and that may give the New Orleans Saints the edge.

Everything Nick Sirianni and his Eagles want to do on the Offensive side of the ball begins with their running game and the Offensive Line is playing well enough. Despite his costly drop, Saquon Barkley has fitted in nicely, but the Eagles are facing a Saints Defensive Line that have been able to clamp down on the run very well through their first two games.

This may be the toughest test the Saints have faced on the ground though and it has also helped the Defensive Line to have leads to protect which has forced teams away from testing them.

Jalen Hurts has an ability to move around the pocket and that has helped with his pass protection, although a big miss for the Quarter Back is AJ Brown who is set to return next month. There are still some decent options in the passing game, but it may give the Saints the chance to get their pass rush firing and this is another aspect of their Football that has impressed early in the season.

The likelihood is that the Saints will be tested much more on this side of the ball than they have so far this season, but there will be a confidence that New Orleans can put up enough points to still be able to win and cover.

Derek Carr has been dismissed at this stage of his career by many critics, but he has opened the season in confident mood with a new Offensive Co-Ordinator impressing.

It most certainly helps that Carr has not felt the pressure on his own shoulders to constantly make plays and that is down to the very strong New Orleans rushing attack through the first two weeks of the season. Alvin Kamara is another who looks revitalised in the new system and the Saints Offensive Line has opened up big running lanes, which is really not good news for this struggling Eagles Defensive Line.

The expectation is that the Saints will be playing in front of the chains through much of this Week 3 game and that makes life very comfortable for an experienced Quarter Back like Derek Carr. With the Eagles Defensive Line not only struggling to stop the run, but failing to really get an effective pass rush going, the Saints should be able to give Derek Carr all of the time he needs to find some young, improving Receivers.

Towards the end of last season, the Eagles struggled against the pass and there has been some early evidence of that in 2024, which can be exploited by the Saints.

New Orleans have won their last three home games against Philadelphia and they look to match up well enough with them to believe they can do the same here, while covering this mark.

Green Bay Packers @ Tennessee Titans Pick: There is always going to be a learning curve when starting a young Quarter Back, while the moves made by the Tennessee Titans (0-2) in the off-season suggests there is a little bit of a transitional feel about the team. Despite that, there will be huge frustrations that they have lost both games played in the 2024 season considering the Titans have been in a position to win before making huge mistakes.

Will Levis will hold his hands up at Quarter Back with the mistakes really coming down to poor decisions or executions on his behalf.

Even Head Coach Brian Callahan showed his irritation about the mistake made in the defeat to the New York Jets in Week 2 that prevented the Titans from really taking control of the game and those need to be cleared up.

They have been in a position to win games and that has to offer up some encouragement for the Titans as they prepare to host the Green Bay Packers (1-1).

Jordan Love was expected to miss a number of weeks after suffering an injury at the end of the Packers loss to the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 1, but he is pushing to return to the field on Sunday. It would remove a potentially big storyline in the NFL this week which would have been Malik Willis leading the Green Bay Packers into a game in Nashville against the team that Drafted him as recently as 2022.

While he was not expecting to be a starter in Tennessee, at least not at the start of the season, it was still a big surprise to Willis himself that he was traded and the motivation to prove the Titans wrong will be huge.

No matter who starts at Quarter Back, this is not going to be an easy game for the Green Bay Packers.

A limited Jordan Love would be an issue and it would be a surprise if the Packers risk their Quarter Back, especially not with a home game against Divisional rivals Minnesota Vikings next week. The Packers will lean on the Offensive Line to try and establish the run, but this is a Titans Defensive Line that has begun the season looking to clamp down on the run and then force teams to try and beat through the air.

You would have to expect Jordan Love to be a stronger passer, but the concern would be that he might be limited in his movement and any concern he has about his injury would make it tough to perform at a top level. Malik Willis will know a bit about the Titans having spent time with the team, but he is a work in progress and it could be tough for the Packers to move the chains with a lot of consistency on this side of the ball.

A case can be made that Will Levis is going to have a tough day passing the ball considering the amount of pressure he has faced when dropping back to throw. It has not helped that Levis feels he has to push the boat out, even when the scoreboard is in his favour, and it will be key for the Tennessee Titans to keep their Quarter Back focused and not continue to make poor decisions at important times.

It will help that the Titans Offensive Line have been grading the road very well and the Coaching staff have to make sure they keep faith in the run. Even when the team have been punishing opponents on the ground, the play-calling has moved away from just continuing to pound the rock and so improvements have to be made on the sidelines.

In a game like this one, Tennessee should be able to crack through the porous Green Bay Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run.

Putting Will Levis in front of the chains and asking him to throw from third and manageable should at least give the Quarter Back a chance to make plays that put in on a highlight reel rather than a blooper compilation. He will have to be aware that the Packers have given up plenty of yards, but they have gotten a decent pass rush pressure up front and the Interceptions have been a product of that up front.

Winning the turnover battle will give the Green Bay Packers a real chance of springing the 'upset', but the Titans have perhaps played better than the results suggest. Even if Jordan Love is able to start for the Packers, the Titans may have the edge in the trenches on both sides of the ball and that can see them end their winless beginning to 2024.

Chicago Bears @ Indianapolis Colts Pick: Expectations are hard to manage, but it is clear that the Indianapolis Colts (0-2) are a little behind their Divisional rivals the Houston Texans. Both have second year Quarter Backs leading their teams, but CJ Stroud has had a lot more pro Football experience compared with Anthony Richardson and so a bit more patience is needed with the latter.

His season ended prematurely twelve months ago and Richardson has just been trying to find his feet on his return.

The Colts are expecting big things of their Quarter Back and there is plenty of hype around Caleb Williams and where he can take the Chicago Bears (1-1). Some even believed that the Bears could be a potential PlayOff team with the Number 1 Draft Pick named the starting Quarter Back, but Williams is another who will need time.

Chicago have won a game, but that was down to the strong Defensive and Special Teams moments against the Tennessee Titans and they were second best in their defeat to the Houston Texans.

At the moment, the key for Caleb Williams is to just focus on his own development rather than concerning himself with big Quarter Back numbers. He will be reminded that he can lean on the Defensive unit to back him up and ultimately the Bears just need Williams to not make too many mistakes.

One of the concerns going into the season was the lack of investment on the Offensive Line, who are tasked with protecting the future of the franchise, and that has been holding Caleb Williams back. His personal numbers were better in Week 2 compared with Week 1 and Williams looked to have already learned plenty in his limited time in the NFL, but the mistakes made against the Houston Texans were costly.

The Offensive Line have not only struggled in pass protection, but they have not really helped their young Quarter Back by helping the Bears establish the run. There looks to be a bit of room to exploit against a struggling Indianapolis Defensive Line and that may give the Bears the opportunities to move the ball when they have it in the hands of the Offense.

Keeping the team in front of the chains is key considering the early struggles throwing the ball and this Colts Secondary have made some big plays for the team. And any time the Bears are behind the chains, expect the Colts to put Caleb Williams under some pressure, which is likely going to lead to some stalled drives.

The Bears will be looking to control the clock on the ground and to give their young Quarter Back a chance to make plays and a similar game plan is likely going to be used by the Indianapolis Colts.

Indianapolis have an Offensive Line that have really helped the team pound the rock effectively, while Anthony Richardson is a dual-threat at Quarter Back to help the team move the chains. Being able to stay with the run is important for the Colts, and, like Chicago, it will mean their Quarter Back is given every chance to earn a victory for his team.

Anthony Richardson may be offered a bit more protection compared with Caleb Williams when he drops back to throw, although he will have to be careful with this Bears pass rush. He will also be well aware that the Bears Secondary are playing at a strong level and this is going to be a game that may be over in the blink of an eye with the amount of rushing we are expecting to see.

It just feels like the Offensive Line play of the Colts is slightly stronger than the Bears and that could see the home team come away with a first victory of the season.

The Colts will need Anthony Richardson to just play a slightly cleaner game to achieve that and the motivation of trying to avoid falling into an early 0-3 hole may just see the home team do enough to win this one.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Buffalo Bills Pick: There was a genuine hope that the off-season would allow the Jacksonville Jaguars (0-2) to reset and just get back to the stronger Football they had been playing. Five losses in six games at the end of the 2023 cost the Jaguars a place in the post-season, and it is a real concern that they have lost both games played this season.

Now they have to travel to the Buffalo Bills (2-0) on Monday Night Football, a team that has made some changes in the off-season, but who are well rested having beaten the Miami Dolphins on Thursday Night Football in Week 2. Big tests are coming up for the Bills with road games against what could be some of their big AFC rivals when it comes to finally returning to the Super Bowl.

Looking past the Jacksonville Jaguars would be a mistake, but players can sometimes lose a bit of focus and at 2-0, the Bills are going to be feeling pretty good.

At the same time the Jaguars are desperate to get back on track having lost a couple of close games and there is some pressure on Head Coach Doug Pederson.

He will be well aware that the Offense has to be improved and more is needed from Trevor Lawrence if the Head Coach is going to extend his time at the helm. A big money contract is in his pocket, but Lawrence has not played nearly as well as the Jaguars need and he sounds pretty honest about his own level right now.

At least the Quarter Back may have a chance to lean on the running game in this one to help the Offensive unit stay in front of the chains and that will makes things a little more comfortable for Trevor Lawrence. Giving the ball to Travis Etienne should see the Jaguars have some success on the ground considering the early form of the Buffalo Defensive Line, but there will also be pressure on Lawrence to show the Bills that they cannot take their eye off of this passing threat.

It is also vitally important for the Jaguars Offensive Line to not have to protect Trevor Lawrence for too long- if the team is throwing from third and long, the Buffalo pass rush pressure is likely to crash in around Trevor Lawrence, and that should help the Bills disguise some of the issues they may have in the Secondary.

There have been some positive moments for this Buffalo Defense, but the new look Offense is still finding its feet and that might be funny to say about a 2-0 team.

Josh Allen remains one of the top Quarter Backs in the NFL, but his Receiving corps looks very different and it is the short fields being created by some of the strong Defensive play which has really helped the Bills.

This game might be tougher considering the Jaguars have been playing with more confidence on the Defensive side of the ball, despite the 0-2 start. With the Receivers and Quarter Back still getting on the same page, the Bills would like to run the ball and that might be tough to do against this Jaguars Defensive Line.

A dual-threat at Quarter Back, Josh Allen should help the team in establishing the run, but it might be tough work on the ground and that will make it tough for Buffalo to cover this spread. There are definitely more holes in the Jaguars Secondary that can be exploited, although it might be early in the season for the Buffalo passing game to really get on track as chemistry is built on the field.

In recent years the Jacksonville Jaguars have matched up well with the Buffalo Bills and a desperate road team can keep this one competitive. Both teams have tough road games coming up in Week 4, but the home team are perhaps going to be slightly more distracted with a 2-0 start behind them and Jacksonville can keep this one close.

MY PICKS: New York Jets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

New Orleans Saints - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Tennessee Titans - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Indianapolis Colts - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 1.5 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 3 Picks 2019 (September 19-23)

A busy week has gotten on top of me with a couple of evenings needed to be set aside for personal events that meant I could not really produce the kind of NFL Week 3 thread that I wanted.

What was important to me was to write out the analysis for the Week 3 selections that I am going to back with the heavier units. I have added a couple of single unit selections to the 'MY PICKS' portion of the thread below.


Week 2 proved to be a tough one, but there isn't a lot I can do about yet another starting Quarter Back going down with an injury, although I had some late fortune on Sunday which helped prevent this being a really poor week.

It was still a losing one and I want to begin turning things around from Week 3 and getting this season back into a positive position after the successes in 2018. Hopefully injuries favour my selections this week and I can have a little fortune on my side to get into a winning week.

I have added the season totals to this thread too. Onto Week 3 Picks.


Oakland Raiders @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Once again you can point at Kirk Cousins and wonder whether he was worth all the money that Minnesota invested in him when he continues to make bonehead plays at key times in big games. The bigger the game, the more likely this is a Quarter Back who will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory and it was his poor play in the Fourth Quarter, including a back-breaking Interception thrown in the Green Bay End Zone, that cost the Minnesota Vikings and dropped them to 1-1.

Playing a non-Conference opponent between two Divisional games is usually a really poor spot to back a team and especially one favoured by as many points as the Vikings are in Week 3. However Mike Zimmer is a Head Coach who will be demanding a response and the fact his Vikings team are 21-9 against the spread coming in off a loss will make me feel more comfortable backing Minnesota here.

Kirk Cousins should be blamed for the defeat to Green Bay, but this is the kind of game in which he has usually thrived as there is no real pressure on him. The Quarter Back is playing behind an Offensive Line which has offered him plenty of protection and Cousins has some top Receiver threats which should give him a chance to have his best game of the season having averaged just 160 passing yards through the first two weeks of the season.

There is a lot of effort in the Oakland Defensive unit which will mean they can make some plays, but they won't be able to think about slowing the pass unless they can be the first team to get to grips with Dalvin Cook at Running Back. While the Raiders Defensive Line has opened the season looking pretty good, this is the toughest Offensive Line they would have faced and I think the Vikings will get Cook established and that should open things up for Cousins to attack a Secondary that is allowing 352 passing yards per game.

One way Oakland can remain competitive is by looking for their own Offense to keep the ball for long periods and control the clock. Both Josh Jacobs and Tyrell Williams are going to be ready to go in Week 3 and Derek Carr has shown he can keep the chains moving, although he will have to avoid the mistakes that cost the Raiders any chance of challenging the Kansas City Chiefs last week.

Carr could be helped in this game if the Minnesota Vikings are not able to play better Defensively than what we have seen through the first two games. While they looked better in the second half against the Green Bay Packers, the Vikings Defensive Line has allowed 4.8 yards per carry so far this season so it might be a chance for Oakland to give the ball to the rookie Jacobs and hope he can keep the team in third and manageable spots.

That is important for Carr who is going to want to use quick passes to keep the Minnesota pass rush quiet- any time he is in third and long spots, Minnesota will feel their pass rush will be able to get the Raiders off the field, but it will all start up front as they bid to clamp down on Jacobs and show that they are the elite Defense that many thought it was before the season began.

There have been some bend, but not being broken, about the Defensive unit in the Secondary, but I am not sure Oakland will be looking to hit Minnesota down the field. Instead they will look to play short passes to keep the chains moving, but it could be difficult to keep up when Derek Carr is asked to do more if they fall a couple of scores behind as we saw with the mistakes made in the second half of the game against Kansas City.

I do think Minnesota will bounce back this week and I am expecting Cousins to have a big week at Quarter Back. I mentioned the record Mike Zimmer has coming in off a loss and the Head Coach has also led his team to a 17-2 record against the spread as a home favourite against a non-Divisional opponent.

The spread has continued to tick upwards despite the wagers being pretty even in Vegas and I want to be with the sharps who seem to like the Vikings here. If the spread ticks over into double digits I would be less keen and would definitely drop a unit, but at this number I am backing Minnesota to get back above 0.500 for the season and give themselves some momentum to take into a huge Week 4 game against the Chicago Bears.


Denver Broncos @ Green Bay Packers Pick: Winning the opening two games of the 2019 season and both against Divisional rivals have given the Green Bay Packers a strong leg up as they bid to return to the PlayOffs. Matt LaFleur is the rookie Head Coach making the headlines as he bids to restore the Green Bay Packers to relevance in the NFC having finished back to back seasons with losing records.

The wins over the Chicago Bears and the Minnesota Vikings have been fuelled by the new look Green Bay Defensive unit which may be amongst the very best in the NFL. Neither team faced has been able to find consistency against them although the Packers had to hold on for the win over the Vikings in Week 2 having Intercepted a terrible Kirk Cousins throw in their own End Zone while leading by just 5 points.

The 2-0 start may also be covering up some of the issues the Packers are having Offensively and Aaron Rodgers is in for another test in Week 3 as he faces the Denver Broncos Defense which almost did enough to help the team win their first game of the season. Instead the Broncos have been left at 0-2 with Joe Flacco yet to really show why Denver picked him up and it could be a situation where the veteran is soon replaced to see what the Broncos have on the roster as far as a Quarter Back of the future is concerned.

It is too early to think about making that move now, but Flacco and the Broncos have to be feeling pretty sick that they were not able to score more than 16 points in either game played so far this season. They had chances against the Chicago Bears in Week 2, but Flacco threw a terrible pass which was Intercepted on the goal-line and I have no doubt the veteran has to be better if Denver are going to get back on track.

A big part of the problem is the Offensive Line which was called for far too many penalties in the defeat to Chicago last week. Holding calls have made it very difficult for Denver to run the ball effectively and they are not going to have a lot of joy against the Green Bay Packers, even if the numbers have been skewed by one huge run by Dalvin Cook last week.

Phillip Lindsay has not been as effective this season with those issues on the Offensive Line and it is going to be hard for Denver to sustain drives if they are not playing a cleaner game up front. If not they are going to be stuck in third and long spots and Joe Flacco is going to find himself under significant pressure from the Green Bay pass rush which looks revitalised this season, while Denver also have to respect the Packers Secondary which is making big plays.

The key to the spread is clearly going to be the Green Bay Offensive unit which is yet to sparkle in 2019. I think the problems Aaron Rodgers and the team have had to really understand what Matt LaFleur wants from them is giving them a few teething issues and Green Bay are now facing a Denver Defense which is underrated to say the least.

The Broncos Defensive Line has been strong enough to believe they can at least limit the impact the Packers have through Aaron Jones and Julian Williams on the ground. Both players could be influential in the passing game, but Denver will be looking to remain stout up front and then rely on a strong Secondary to make the plays they need to get off the field.

Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay passing game is averaging less than 180 yards through the air in the opening two weeks of the season. You would certainly expect that number to change over the months ahead, but Rodgers is facing a Denver Secondary that has held teams to under 200 passing yards per game, although those have been against Quarter Backs that don't match up to the standards Rodgers has set.

You have to imagine Denver will look to make someone other than Davante Adams beat them through the air and the Broncos have played well enough on this side of the ball to believe they can limit the amount of points the home team score. It certainly makes getting more than a converted Touchdown worth of points that much more appealing and I do like the Broncos when you think of the tough spot Green Bay are in.

The Packers have won back to back Divisional games and face a Conference rival on Thursday Night Football in Week 4 so I can imagine a situation where a 0-2 non-Conference opponent is not one they take as seriously as other games. Green Bay do have one very favourable trend that has to be respected, but they are 0-4 against the spread in their last four games following a game against the Minnesota Vikings and plenty was invested in last week's game.

Denver do have a poor recent record against the spread, but they should be desperate after the 0-2 start to the season. With the Thursday Night Football game coming up for the Packers, I will look for the Denver Broncos to earn just enough points to get within this number.


Detroit Lions @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: From the moment Doug Pederson and the Philadelphia Eagles announced regular Wednesday practice would be cancelled because of the amount of injuries in the Eagles locker room this spread began moving. The sharp players were very much behind the Detroit Lions who had opened up as a full 7 point underdog, but that mark is much shorter now.

We have gone through a couple of key numbers so some of the value has gone, but I do think the Detroit Lions are still a decent team to get behind in Week 3 of the 2019 NFL season as they look to improve their 1-0-1 record. They upset the Los Angeles Chargers at home last week and are facing a Philadelphia Eagles team who were dropped to 1-1 after losing to the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday Night Football.

Some key players are expected to be missing for the Eagles on Sunday or at least they are going to be limited. Philadelphia have been very strong at home under Doug Pederson so they have to be respected and you can't ignore the fact that the Eagles are favourites, but Carson Wentz and those that take to the field are going to have to dig deep ahead of a Thursday Night Football game at the Green Bay Packers.

The Quarter Back could have more success if the Eagles are able to establish the run against a Detroit team that have given up some huge plays on the ground. Much will depend on the Philadelphia Offensive Line getting back on track having had some problems both opening running lanes and also in pass protection.

Some of the issues might be down to the inconsistent Running Back committee that have yet to see one player really take over the majority of the carries. I do think the Eagles can have some successes in this one, and that may help Carson Wentz who is otherwise going to be under pressure from the Detroit pass rush.

There are holes in the Detroit Secondary which Wentz can expose, but I do think you would be more comfortable doing that if the likes of DeSean Jackson and Alshon Jeffrey are missing or limited. I expect some positive plays from the Eagles at home, but there may be some inconsistent drives with the backup Receivers perhaps struggling to make the same kind of plays as Jackson and Jeffrey.

It will certainly be important for the Eagles to get into a position to score points as they may struggle to get the better of the Detroit Offensive unit. Like the Eagles, Detroit have struggled to run the ball and I don't think they are going to have a lot of joy against this Philadelphia Defensive Line that has held teams to 2.8 yards per carry.

However Matthew Stafford has shown he is feeling comfortable with the Offensive plays being called and I expect the Quarter Back to have success against this struggling Eagles Secondary. Philadelphia have given up 340 passing yards per game on the season so far and the pass rush has not been as effective as they would have liked so you have to believe Stafford and the Lions can have a strong day through the air.

Avoiding Interceptions is the key for Matt Stafford if the Lions are going to remain unbeaten and keep tabs on the NFC North leading Green Bay Packers. The Lions have to also avoid some of the narrative around the Philadelphia Eagles and remind themselves they are still big underdogs despite their hosts being banged up and that has to be motivation for Detroit to play a big game.

Detroit are 11-1 against the spread when playing a non-Division opponent off a straight up loss as the favourite so they should be able to handle the emotion that Philadelphia may have after losing in Atlanta last week. The Eagles are also 0-6 against the spread at home when playing a team who are off an underdog win like the Detroit Lions are.

As much as Matt Patricia is under pressure as the Head Coach of the Lions, his team is 6-3 against the spread on the road and I still believe this is enough points to be receiving with the underdog.


Houston Texans @ Los Angeles Chargers Pick: Two teams who would have been targeting the NFL PlayOffs in January meet in Week 3 with both the Houston Texans and Los Angeles Chargers at 1-1. The Texans are in the weaker Division which looks up for grabs, but the Chargers won't want the Kansas City Chiefs getting too far away and this is also a game which could have huge PlayOff implications in terms of tie-breakers later in the season.

I do think there are some similarities with the way these two teams have performed in the first two weeks of the season. Both could be 0-2, but the more positive fans will be looking at the performances and suggesting the Texans and Chargers should be at 2-0.

I think that is the feeling the players will have, but they are looking to clean up some of the poorer play which has cost them. Injuries are not helping either, but the Chargers and Texans should be confident going into Week 3.

This is not exactly a strong home field advantage for the Chargers, but they have bounced back from losses under Anthony Lynn. Philip Rivers has been playing well for the team, but the Offensive Line has not played as well as the Quarter Back would have liked and that has stalled some drives despite the strong numbers produced.

In each of the two games played in 2019 the Chargers have actually earned more yards than their opponent, but mistakes have been costly including a late Interception when it looked like Los Angeles would have a chance to at least tie the game in their defeat in Detroit in Week 2.

Los Angeles will feel they can have a good Offensive outing against the Houston Texans even though they are going to have some pressure put on them by the pass rush that their visitors can generate. Austin Ekeler has stepped up in the continued absence of Melvin Gordon and the Chargers have run the ball very well which is a strong way to slow down the pass rush.

Ekeler and the Chargers are putting up 5.7 yards per carry and I think the Offensive Line is much happier when being able to get downhill and open holes for the Los Angeles Backs. It has been a surprisingly poor start from the Houston Texans when it comes to stopping the run so the feeling is that Los Angeles can establish the ground game which is going to make life all the more comfortable for Rivers to hurt Houston through the air.

Philip Rivers has some very strong numbers and he should be happy with the play-action and short yardage spots he will be put into. Houston have a Defensive unit that is still finding its feet in 2019 and I do think the Chargers will be able to move the ball with a lot of consistency in this game which will give them a very good chance of winning this game.

Houston should have a successful Offensive day too having seen Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson having established the run with some big plays on the ground. They should have a chance to get something going against the Los Angeles Defensive Line and that will be important to give this Offensive Line a chance perform better when it comes to protecting Deshaun Watson.

The Quarter Back is capable of running RPOs which can help Houston move into third and manageable spots and that should be important in helping an Offensive Line that have not protected Watson when he drops back to pass. Any time they get into third and long, I would expect the powerful Los Angeles pass rush to pressurise Watson, although he should still be able to make plays to the likes of Will Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins.

We haven't seen the Chargers pass rush at full tilt yet, but I think they have the players to at least get around Watson and force some mistakes from the young signal caller. There are some injuries in the Los Angeles Secondary which can be exploited by Watson who can extend plays and look to hit big passes down the field, but I do think there won't be the same type of consistency that the Chargers can produce when they have the ball in the hands of the Offense.

The Texans only just held on for a Divisional win in Week 3, but they are 1-6 against the spread in the following game in that situation over their last seven attempts. Home advantage is not huge for the Los Angeles Chargers, but they have been very good at covering when hosting teams from the AFC South and the Chargers have covered in six in a row against the Texans.

As I mentioned above, the Chargers have bounced back well off losses under Head Coach Anthony Lynn and they are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight games they have faced that situation. Being able to lay a Field Goal worth of points is a good enough spot for me here and I will back the Los Angeles Chargers to have enough firepower to edge out the Houston Texans at home.


New Orleans Saints @ Seattle Seahawks Pick: Dropping to 1-1 is the least of the concerns that the New Orleans Saints will have out of Week 2 of the 2019 season. The bigger issue was the injury suffered by Drew Brees which is going to keep him out of the team for a few weeks and that means Sean Payton is going to ask Teddy Bridgewater to keep the Saints afloat before their Hall of Famer returns.

It won't only be Bridgewater but Payton has made it clear that Taysom Hill will also be given plenty of snaps as the Saints look to find a way to deal with how the cards have fallen for them. New Orleans have been so close to reaching the Super Bowl in each of the last couple of seasons so the loss of Brees is going to really sting.

At least New Orleans are playing in a Division where none of the teams look like they are going to be capable of running away with it. The schedule could be problematic for the Saints and this game in Seattle looks a very difficult one against the Seahawks who moved to 2-0 after beating an opponent who were missing their starting Quarter Back in Week 2.

Playing another team with a backup Quarter Back has made the Seahawks big favourites to win this game, but I do think the Saints Defensive unit can at least give their team a chance in this one. There are still some areas you would like to see New Orleans improve, but they do look like they could match up well with the Seattle Offense.

Running the ball has been a problem for the Seahawks which can't be considered a surprise when you think of the Offensive Line problems they have had all season. Some teams are happier running the ball, but this Offensive Line has not opened up consistent holes for any of the Running Backs even if they are expected to have a little more success against the Saints Defensive Line which has given up almost 6 yards per carry.

That number needs to be improved by New Orleans but I am expecting that to happen over the course of the season considering they ended with the Number 2 Rushing Defense in the NFL in 2018. The Saints will be looking to force the Seahawks into passing situations by clamping down up front and if they can do that this team will have the kind of pass rush to give Seattle fits.

Russell Wilson is a mobile Quarter Back, but even he has not been able to prevent the Offensive Line giving up as many Sacks as they have in the first two weeks of the season. The Seahawks Offensive Line did look like a real weakness before a Down had been played and that has looked the case early on, something that the New Orleans Saints will feel they can punish as they did against the Houston Texans in Week 1.

I still think this Super Bowl winning Quarter Back will be able to make strong plays through the air, especially as the Saints Secondary have not played as well as they would have liked. However Russell Wilson is not throwing to an elite list of Receivers and the Saints can at least give their team a chance of winning this game.

The key for New Orleans to make this a competitive game will be Alvin Kamara who has been running behind a strong Offensive Line that have helped the Saints produce 5 yards per carry. While the Seahawks Defensive Line has surprised with their strength up front to open the season, I do think we will get a clearer idea about where they are in this game as they are facing an Offensive Line much stronger than the one Cincinnati are using, while Pittsburgh were perhaps taken back by having Ben Roethlisberger leave the game.

You may think Seattle are going to look to clamp down on the run and force Bridgewater to beat them through the air, but I am very much expecting a better game from the new Quarter Back. He will have been surprised to have been needed in Week 2, but now Bridgewater has a week knowing his spot in the line up and the Seattle Secondary is far from the level produced during the 'Legion of Boom' era.

The Seahawks have allowed almost 300 passing yards per game and Mason Rudolph showed last week that a backup Quarter Back can have some success against Seattle. Teddy Bridgewater has a lot more experience and Taysom Hill can use RPOs to open things up on the ground and I do like the Saints chances of scoring enough points to keep this close.

Sean Payton is a very good Head Coach who will have prepared his team on how to deal with being without Drew Brees and he has a very good record off a straight up loss. The Head Coach also has a very high covering rate when being set as the underdog and I do think the whole Saints team will step up their play to make up for the Hall of Fame Quarter Back that is missing.

The Saints have been very good on the road as far as covering the spread is concerned and I do think they can make enough big Defensive plays to set up Teddy Bridgewater to help the team keep this competitive at the very least.

MY PICKS: Minnesota Vikings - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 7.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Detroit Lions + 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Los Angeles Chargers - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
New Orleans Saints + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indianapolis Colts - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 7-8, - 2.54 Units (29 Units Staked, - 8.76% Yield)