Weekend Football Thoughts 2015 (September 19-20)

There was one hugely controversial issue in the Premier League this weekend which can't be ignored, while I won't apologise for this being a piece leaning towards Manchester United on what was a successful weekend for the club after the disappointment in Eindhoven.

Is there a Bigger Wind-Up Merchant than Diego Costa in the Premier League?

I have no love lost for Arsenal and found it amusing how their fans reacted to Diego Costa's attitude on the field considering how so many of the same fans 'love' Martin Keown and his actions against Ruud Van Nistelrooy ten years ago.

But let's face facts- I have said for a year that there are very few bigger wind up merchants in the Premier League than Diego Costa.

He is constantly playing on the edge when it comes to the rules, but how he seems to get away with his over aggressive approach is beyond me. The referees must see what Costa gets up to, yet no one seems to put a stamp down on the behaviour.

A blatant slap in Laurent Koscielny's face was followed by a running battle with Gabriel, a player he has had previous with during their time in Spain. An argument escalated as Mike Dean lost control of the situation and somehow Costa was able to get Gabriel wound up to the point of kicking out and being sent off.

There is no doubting it was a key moment in the match which turned in favour of Chelsea, but something has to be done about Costa. Something to show him he can't keep doing this on a football pitch and expect to get away with it because the FA won't punish him retrospectively.

Referees have to have an eye out on him at all times and hopefully they can get on top of Costa and not allow a situation to develop where he is completely responsible for having a fellow professional sent off.


Since I wrote this, Diego Costa has been charged by the FA and does look set for a three game suspension for the 'punch' on Koscielny.

North East Footballing Troubles

Middlesbrough look to be a team on the up in this part of the world, but Hull City were relegated from the Premier League last season and both Sunderland and Newcastle United are looking like they are on a path to join The Tigers in the Championship.

Steve McClaren and Dick Advocaat have to be leading the 'Sack Race' at this moment in time as both Newcastle United and Sunderland struggle, but the Dutch manager is the one in more immediate trouble as far as I am concerned.

I can't imagine Mike Ashley making a snap decision on a manager he has appointed for just five games, but Advocaat has admitted he will walk if he can't begin to turn things around.

The worry for both teams has to be that they have lost some really disappointing games and ones they would have circled as 'can't afford to lose' type of games. Newcastle United losing at home to Watford is a very poor result, but the manner of Sunderland's losses at Leicester and Bournemouth has to be a concern.

You can't doubt the passion that supporters have in this part of England, but that can also lead to a toxic environment when things aren't going right. It doesn't get easier for either team this weekend as Newcastle United host Chelsea and Sunderland visit Manchester United off the back of Capital One Cup action and this already looks like desperate times for the two clubs in the North East in the Premier League.

West Ham United are Displaying the Form to get into Europe

There has to be some sense of irony that Slaven Bilic is presiding over a West Ham United team that have won some impressive games that could lead to a European berth next season.

After barely giving the Europa League any attention this season, it would be funny if the side play well enough to get back into that competition next time around. The Champions League looks beyond them despite the form they have displayed in winning at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester City, but the lack of regard West Ham United showed the Europa League makes me wonder what is the ambition of the club?

Are they simply going to look to finish high enough to get into a position to be knocked out in the Qualifiers of the Europa League next season?

Or was it the fact they had to begin so early in European competition that bothered Bilic?

It is a strange situation to me, but take nothing away from West Ham United who have played some very attractive football this season. They rode their luck to win the game at The Etihad Stadium, as you have to sometimes, but adds to the impressive away wins in the Premier League.

If it wasn't for defeats to Leicester City and Bournemouth, which look even more surprising now, West Ham United might have been leading the pile in the Premier League.

David De Gea Staying at Manchester United is a huge deal

Most Manchester United fans are sensible enough to understand the draw of Real Madrid for a player like David De Gea, as they did when Cristiano Ronaldo made it clear his future lay in the Spanish capital, but keeping him could be the best transfer business Manchester United had in the summer of 2015.

Take nothing away from some of the players brought into the club, but David De Gea has to be amongst the top two or three goalkeepers in the world and keeping him is a huge boost.

That image above doesn't do the save he made on Sunday any justice.

As he did last season, De Gea made a jaw-dropping save in the second half with Manchester United leading the game and it was a moment that effectively won the three points. They say goalkeepers are worth an additional three or four wins a season and De Gea certainly proved that point on Sunday with a save that truly was world class.

Watching in real time, I figured it was a certainty that the ball was about to hit the back of the net until somehow De Gea clawed it out from behind him and once again reminded everyone of the importance of keeping the Spaniard at Old Trafford.

Anthony Martial Needs Time, but looks the Real Deal

I haven't said too much about Anthony Martial because I simply hadn't seen a lot of him prior to his move to Manchester United.

The price looked a big one, but it is one that will be determined by the career that Martial creates for him in the future.

His announcement with a fantastic finish against Liverpool was brilliant, but I also thought he played well in Eindhoven even if he didn't score.

However, the two goals against Southampton this weekend to help turn that game were very, very promising.

I don't really want to judge someone on a special goal like the one Martial got against Liverpool, but I love to see what a player is like doing the basics under some pressure.

The basics in this case were the composure in front of goal shown for the second goal, or Martial's decision making for the first to turn Virgil Van Dijk. Both were signs of someone who is completely calm in front of goal and there is no more of a confidence booster than seeing a player be able to do that.

I don't want to go overboard like some have the tendency to do, but it was the clinical finishing reminiscent of Ruud Van Nistelrooy that really appealed to me and makes me a believer in Martial. He is 19 years old so will have his ups and downs, but composure like he showed at St Mary's can't be taught and seeing him have that in the locker is a really big positive for me.

Give the young man time to develop the rest of his game and Manchester United really might have a star of the future on their hands.

Weekend Football Picks 2015 (September 19-20)

It has been a pretty disappointing week in Europe for the English sides and that has led to new fears that the fourth Champions League spot in the Premier League is under threat from the improved Italian League.

One journalist has wrote that the Italian teams need to better the English results by one draw over the course of this season for that fourth place to be moved from England to Italy and that has to be a real fear for the Premier League.

Three defeats in four Champions League games puts some pressure on the English teams in that competition, although the Group Stage means they have recovery time. The bigger concern has to the relative coolness English teams have shown towards the Europa League in recent years which has seen managers pick weakened teams compared with Italy whose sides see the benefit of being involved in that tournament.

The Manchester City defeat to Juventus be seen as the reality of the moving of the fourth spot, although I still don't understand why the English team continues to show real nervousness in that competition. There is so much talent and experience in the Manchester City squad that it is becoming a real mental issue for the players that they play so far within themselves in the Champions League and it will be the reason Manuel Pellegrini loses his job at the end of the season if they don't make an impact in the competition this season.

Manchester United and Arsenal suffered embarrassing losses on foreign fields, but the former will only be concerned about the injury suffered by Luke Shaw.

Shaw was fast becoming one of my favourite players at Old Trafford after a stunning start to the new season when he has arguably been Manchester United's best player and I think his absence is a big blow to the 'balance' Louis Van Gaal has been looking for in his team.

I can only hope Shaw's recovery goes to plan and he comes back stronger than ever.

Chelsea got back to winning ways during the week and that will have given them a boost going into the Premier League game with Arsenal this weekend and it looks to be a really interesting game that should develop at Stamford Bridge.


You can read last week's thoughts from the Premier League here.


Chelsea v Arsenal Pick: This is the biggest game of the week, but I guess the television companies would have expected to have seen two teams at the very top of the Premier League.

Instead they get a 17th placed Chelsea against 4th placed Arsenal, but there have only been five games and I expect both sides to be there or thereabouts come the end of the season.

Without a doubt the game means more to Chelsea who need to start winning games and moving up the Premier League table, but Arsene Wenger will be desperate for Arsenal to bounce back from an embarrassing Champions League defeat.

There is no love lost between the managers which also makes this a game of fascination for the neutrals tuning in and I think it will be a close game. The Chelsea defence still doesn't look like they are playing with too much confidence, but Arsenal have mental issues to overcome despite beating Chelsea in the Community Shield.

Despite the better start to the season, Arsenal still look vulnerable and I think there is a lack of characters in the squad that can pull them up when under the cosh. They've had the tougher game during the week having to play with ten men for a long period in Croatia, but enough players were rested who can come in and make a difference.

Tough match to call, but I do think Chelsea look a very generous price off the back of a morale boosting Champions League win and their record against Arsenal in recent years. It will be tight and tense with both teams knowing the importance of the fixture even at this stage of the season, but I fancy Jose Mourinho gets the better of Wenger again and helps find a way for his side to earn the three points.


Bournemouth v Sunderland Pick: This already has the makings of a huge game that could be vital in deciding the relegation places next May as Bournemouth and Sunderland try to win their first home/away League game of the season.

Both might feel they have dropped points in those games that they shouldn't have as Bournemouth conceded late to draw with Leicester City in their last game here and Sunderland had led at Aston Villa in an eventual draw.

Clean sheets have proved to be a problem for both teams, but both have also shown they can score goals which makes it a surprise to me that the layers have at least three goals to be shared at odds against.

The two Sunderland away games have seen the side both score and concede at least two goals and there will be opportunities for Bournemouth to get their chances and score the goals to win the game.

However, it also seems clear that Sunderland are capable of scoring goals on their travels and I expect they will also get amongst the goals in this one. I like the chances of both teams hitting the net at least once and I think the draw is not exactly a result that Eddie Howe or Dick Advocaat will want to settle for so this could be a surprisingly entertaining game.

Backing goals is far more appealing than backing Bournemouth at a comically short price and that is the angle I will go.


Stoke City v Leicester City Pick: The early League games for Stoke City have been a disappointment, but there have been some factors as to why they haven't won a game yet and I think the points tally doesn't tell the full picture. Stoke City lost to a late Liverpool goal and were reduced to nine men before losing to West Brom in their two home games and I expect a much better outing from them in this one.

There is too much attacking talent in the Stoke City squad to continue to struggle in front of goal and they are facing a Leicester City team that haven't exactly been watertight at the back.

It has been a successful season for Leicester City in terms of results achieved, but they have yet to keep a clean sheet and that is where Stoke City will look to take advantage.

However, Leicester City have shown they have plenty of pace in the forward areas to give Stoke City plenty of problems too and I am looking for another game that might produce a few goals on Saturday.

The layers are expecting both teams to score, as am I, but I think there is real tempting price being put out on there being at least three goals shared by the teams and one that looks worth backing. Neither League game was goal-filled last season, but both teams have a real attacking intent this year and with a lack of clean sheets from the teams, I think goals are the order of the day.


Swansea City v Everton Pick: This is a difficult game to predict a winner from as Swansea City would have had some confidence dented in the 1-0 loss at Watford, while Everton will have been boosted by a 3-1 win over Chelsea last weekend.

They have the same number of points after five Premier League games and both have progressed in the Capital One Cup so there are plenty of similarities between Swansea City and Everton. Both have come through some difficult games to reach the 8 points they have and this has all the makings of a tight game that is decided by a moment of magic or a mistake.

Swansea City have been solid at home, but Everton have been tough to beat on their travels and the draw has to be a huge player in the match.

The home team are a pretty healthy favourite to win the game, but Everton have loved coming to The Liberty Stadium in the Premier League with 3 wins and a draw in their four League games here.

I think Swansea City will cause some problems and it will be a 'pretty' game as both teams like to get the ball on the floor and present a strong passing game. Both have direct players out wide that can carry the ball against the other and I think both Swansea City and Everton will have their chances.

4 of the last 6 fixtures between these teams have seen both teams get on the scoreboard and I think both teams will score at least once in this one in what could easily be a 1-1 draw.


Manchester City v West Ham United Pick: Another disappointing Champions League night has to be put to the back of the Manchester City minds as they return to Premier League action this weekend. Manuel Pellegrini was extremely disappointed that Manchester City lost the game against Juventus and you don't blame him as the side lost a lead at home, while also showing some naivety that you would have thought their experience would have eliminated.

It makes life difficult in the Group, but Manchester City have time to turn things around and will be looking to maintain their impressive start to the Premier League season.

They won't be underestimating a West Ham United team that has won impressively at Arsenal and Liverpool already this season and looked confident in a 2-0 home win over Newcastle United.

Slaven Bilic has found the perfect away formula in the first two Premier League games, but I think Manchester City are playing on a different level to Arsenal and Liverpool at the moment. You have to think there will be a backlash to the Champions League loss during the week and the return of Sergio Aguero makes them a far more intimidating threat going forward.

West Ham United will make life difficult and try and hit Manchester City on the break which might be successful if Vincent Kompany can't be around to marshall the defence. There is a threat from The Hammers who have some pace in the forward areas, but I think Manchester City will prove a little too strong on the day and make it six wins from six games.

Once Manchester City make the breakthrough, I expect them to go up the gears and win this one by a couple of goals and keep the pressure on the title rivals hoping to peg them back.


Tottenham Hotspur v Crystal Palace Pick: The Premier League teams clearly feel that playing in the Europa League messes too much with their League schedule and Tottenham Hotspur have seemingly struggled out of the Europa League games.

I had a quick look at that and they did have three wins and six games they failed to win following their last nine Europa League games so there might be something there. Not many believe the two days rest between Thursday and Sunday is sufficient and you can see why Mauricio Pochettino rested so many starters in the win over Qarabag this week.

Harry Kane will back in along with players like Nacer Chadli in the forward positions, but Son Heung-Min has to feel he has done enough to start this week.

Even though a few players were rested, this is a big test for Tottenham Hotspur in front of the television cameras as Crystal Palace come to town. The Eagles won at Chelsea in their most recent away game which means they have won 8 of their last 10 away games in the Premier League which is an incredible run.

You can easily see why Crystal Palace have been so successful as they are blessed with pace in the forward areas which makes them a constant menace on the counter attack. Playing away from home seems to suit them perfectly as they do tend to have more space to exploit and Alan Pardew's men won't be intimidated by facing Spurs having already played Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City this season.

OK, they did lose two of those games, but Arsenal and Manchester City had to work incredibly hard to do that while not many teams will follow Crystal Palace in beating Chelsea at Stamford Bridge in the League this season.

While there will be many who might back Crystal Palace at a little under odds against to simply avoid defeat, I think a small interest in them in the 'Draw No Bet' market is warranted. They have been on a great winning run away from home and Crystal Palace could exploit any tired legs that remain in the Tottenham Hotspur line up.

Crystal Palace might not have won on their last four visits to White Hart Lane, but the stars might have aligned for them to snap that run here and a small interest in them to do so with a return in case of the draw is warranted.

MY PICKS: Chelsea @ 2.45 Bet365 (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Sunderland Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Stoke City-Leicester City Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Swansea City-Everton Both Teams to Score @ 1.89 Bet365 (2 Units)
Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Crystal Palace Draw No Bet @ 3.00 Coral (1 Unit)

September Update: 17-18-2, + 0.92 Units (69.5 Units Staked, + 1.32% Yield)

August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)