NFL Week 2 Picks 2024 (Thursday 12th September-Monday 16th September)

Looking back at the Week 1 write up from 2023 and there were plenty of positives to take about the teams identified as potential Super Bowl Champions.

Of course the Kansas City Chiefs-San Francisco 49ers match up would have been one that many had tipped up anyway and it really would not be a surprise to see both there or thereabouts again.

A couple of dud teams that were highlighted ended up being the New York Jets, which is not a surprise considering what happened to Aaron Rodgers after just four Offensive snaps, while the other were the very disappointing Denver Broncos.

However, the Detroit Lions and Cleveland Browns both were able to make the post-season and so it was largely a positive.

Of course it was written in the Week 1 Picks thread for the 2024 season that the 'preview' of the season would have to wait until Week 2 because of timing issues.

The first thing to point out is that there will be a couple of teams here that have begun the season very disappointingly, although the longer-term prospects remain high and an overreaction to Week 1 results is not necessary.

No one should be surprised that the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers impressed as much as they did and these two Super Bowl teams from the 2023 season will be setting the bar for others as long as they can stay healthy.

You have to feel good about where the Detroit Lions stand right now and their window to finally reach a Super Bowl is very much open- they should have beaten the 49ers in the PlayOffs last season and Dan Campbell will be convinced his team can go a little better.

The belief is that teams like the Green Bay Packers and Los Angeles Rams can build on their runs last season, although the former have lost Jordan Love for at least a month. That is a bitter blow, but the Packers are playing in a Division where they should dominate along with the Lions, while the Rams have a nice looking balance to their roster even after Aaron Donald moved into retirement.

The team that may be looking to show the most improvement in the NFC has to be the Philadelphia Eagles after a tremendous collapse at the end of last season. There is a feeling that Nick Siriano is lucky to keep his job as Head Coach, but both him and Jalen Hurts will be on the hot seat as Eagles fans think Super Bowl or bust.

The NFC does look a little deeper this time around, and a few more challengers can come up to face the San Francisco 49ers, but it feels like a Conference where the post-season teams from last season will be expecting improvement to go again.

It may be a bit different in the AFC and the likes of the Cincinnati Bengals will feel a healthier year for Joe Burrow could be important as they look for one more shot to win a Super Bowl before key players need big money contracts.

Losing to the New England Patriots in Week 1 is a disappointment, but the Baltimore Ravens are set to take a step back in the AFC North and the Bengals may yet be ready to pounce on that.

Another long-time contender Buffalo Bills have something to prove too with a number of changes made to a roster that were narrowly beaten by Kansas City Chiefs yet again. Both the Miami Dolphins and New York Jets will be looking to give the Bills a run for their money and end their dominance of the AFC East and one of the two representatives in the PlayOffs from this Division in 2023 may miss out in 2024.

Two top teams slipping backwards may give younger Quarter Backs leading the Jacksonville Jaguars and Houston Texans an opportunity for a deep post-season run, while Jim Harbaugh is back in the NFL with the Los Angeles Chargers and has a history of turning around a teams fortunes very quickly.

This year may be too soon for Harbaugh to have the impact he wants, but the AFC looks pretty wide open behind the Kansas City Chiefs, who have to be considered the favourites to return to the Super Bowl and really nail down their place as a dynasty.

2023 proved to be a very good year for the NFL Picks with a 56% hit rate- an 80-58-4 record produced just shy of 17 units of profit and an 11.23% Yield.

Anything like that in 2024 would be seen as a positive and the Week 1 start was a good one, although it is only a start.

The key in Week 2 is to not make too many overreactions to a single week of action- teams are not nearly as good as some may have looked and not nearly as bad as others felt, but it is still important to try and find the right angles to back up the Week 1 results.

Last year I noted that the first four weeks were tough with two winning weeks and two that ended on the losing side, so stakes are likely to be kept to a minimum this week too.

Buffalo Bills @ Miami Dolphins Pick: Thursday Night Football looks a really good one in Week 2 as two of the leading contenders in the AFC East meet very early on in the new season.

Both the Miami Dolphins (1-0) and Buffalo Bills (1-0) had to show some character and resiliency in fighting back to win opening games after making slow starts and that should mean there is some momentum to take into the short week.

Obviously one of the bigger issues with playing on a short week is that players do not have the time to recover as they usually would and Raheem Mostert has already been ruled out for the Miami Dolphins. His Running Back partner De'Von Achane has been left as a game time decision, while the Buffalo Bills will start Josh Allen at Quarter Back despite having his left hand banged up against the Arizona Cardinals.

Excuses cannot be used as far as the fans go and the Miami Dolphins are under some pressure to show they can get the better of this AFC East rival.

Since Drafting Josh Allen, the Bills have dominated the Dolphins and they have actually won eleven of the last twelve between the teams, including a Week 18 victory last season which saw Buffalo win another AFC East Divisional title and push Miami into the Wild Card Round of the post-season.

The 2022 season had ended with a PlayOff defeat to Buffalo and being swept by the Bills cost Miami a Divisional title in 2023 so there is plenty of redemption and revenge fuelling the home team. Conditions are perhaps not so strong in favour of Miami as it would have been if this game had been set to play during the day rather than 8:15pm local time, and you have to agree with Tua Tagovailoa who stated that people won't really begin to believe in the Miami Dolphins until they start beating Buffalo consistently.

Offensive Line issues may make it difficult for the Dolphins to run the ball and that would have been the case if both Running Backs were fully healthy too. That means the pressure is on Tua Tagovailoa to show that he is ready to beat the Bills and there are some passing lanes that can be exploited if the Quarter Back is given time.

It was something of a struggle to earn that time against the Jacksonville Jaguars and this Bills team do get pressure up front, which is going to be key to stopping the Miami speedsters from getting away from their Defenders. If the Dolphins are playing from third and long, Buffalo can rush Tagovailoa and that may lead to one or two mistakes.

At least Tyreek Hill and a couple of the other Miami players will hopefully have an easier journey to the Stadium than they did on Sunday- the police officer footage of pulling over Hill has been embarrassing and continues to be a big story heading into Week 2 as the Dolphins demand proper action is taken.

This is something that the Buffalo Bills will not concern themselves with and the only focus for this team is to build on the win in Week 1.

Changes have had to be made and Stefon Diggs is no longer with the Bills, but Josh Allen is and there are still enough pieces to believe this is a team capable of breaking through and reaching a Super Bowl. The banged up hand is a concern, but at least it is not his throwing hand, while the comfort Allen has in facing the Miami Dolphins is hard to dismiss.

Last week the Miami Defensive Line had one or two issues shutting down the run and that was without Trevor Lawrence attempting to move the ball with his legs. Things might be that much more difficult with a dual-threat like Josh Allen in front of them and that should also mean an opportunity for James Cook to play a key part in the game.

Losing Diggs and Gabe Davis does mean the Bills may not be as keen to test this Miami Secondary through the air, but moving the ball on the ground will open up some of the play-action opportunities. The feeling is that Buffalo may have enough success on the ground to give Josh Allen a chance to continue his dominance of this AFC East rival and the Bills do look an appealing underdog.

Miami will scheme things up to try and exploit some of the vulnerable spots in this Buffalo Defensive unit, but it will be tough if they cannot run the ball. Being behind the chains is tough for any Offensive team and there is also plenty for Miami to prove this season having come up short against the stronger teams they faced time after time last season.

If this spread moves up to a full Field Goal margin it would be worth additional units, but a small interest on the Buffalo Bills with the start is still the play in this big Week 2 opener.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Detroit Lions Pick: After getting the better of one opponent looking for revenge after a PlayOff defeat in their home Stadium, the Detroit Lions (1-0) will be hoping to hold onto dominance over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1-0) in Week 2. The Lions won both games played against Tampa Bay in the 2023 season and they are clearly one of the favourites to reach the Super Bowl thanks to the quality of player they have on both sides of the ball.

The Jordan Love injury for the Green Bay Packers may have opened a door for Detroit to take an early grip of this Division, although much will depend on how much time the Quarter Back misses. Even if he was healthy, there are plenty of people very bullish on the chances of the Lions to go at least one better than last season when they were narrowly beaten in the NFC Championship Game.

It took Overtime to finally get the better of former Quarter Back Matthew Stafford and the Los Angeles Rams, but the victory maintains the strong performance level with Jared Goff at the helm in the indoor conditions of Ford Field.

Detroit ran the ball pretty well against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the PlayOff game having struggled to move the ball on the ground when the teams met in the regular season. With the tandem at Running Back, the Lions can certainly pick up from where they left off in the win over the Los Angeles Rams and both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs will be given opportunities both from hand-offs and also as pass catchers coming out of the backfield.

It feels like it will be challenging for the Buccaneers to contain the Lions on the ground, especially if the Offensive Line is at full health and so it is wise to keep an eye on the status of Penei Sewell who has missed practice this week. He should suit up to keep the Lions Offensive Line as the dominant team in the trenches and putting Jared Goff in third and manageable will make it very tough to stop this unit.

Jared Goff has the Receivers to really give Tampa Bay problems and the Buccaneers are not facing a rookie this week. Antoine Winfield Jr could be missing in the Secondary and it will be tough to contain Detroit, even from what they have learned about one of the top NFC contenders in the two meetings last season.

Head Coach Todd Bowles prides himself on his Defensive knowhow, but stopping Detroit is going to be tough in their own Stadium.

However, there has to be some confidence that Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Offensive unit can at least challenge the Lions on the scoreboard and potentially keep the game very competitive. In the PlayOff game, the Buccaneers had more yards than Detroit, but two Mayfield Interceptions proved costly in an 8 point loss and the Quarter Back will know he has to be smarter with the ball.

Taking over from Tom Brady, Baker Mayfield played well enough in 2023 to earn a big extension and he still has some top Receivers around him to make the plays that make him look good. Much is going to depend on Mayfield and his arm with the Buccaneers unlikely to have a lot of success running the ball against this Detroit Defensive Line and the game could be won or lost depending on how effectively the Buccaneers Offensive Line can give their Quarter Back time.

With time, Baker Mayfield should be able to make some big plays into the Detroit Secondary, especially one that is likely to be learning on the job early in the season. Passing has been tough for NFL Quarter Backs in Week 1 of the 2024 season, but Baker Mayfield was one of the better performers in the position and he can find Mike Evans and Chris Godwin for some big plays to keep this one competitive.

Opposing Detroit inside Ford Field has proven to be very costly over the last couple of years under Dan Campbell and they cam through with a win and cover on Sunday Night Football in Week 1. However, this feels like a game in which Tampa Bay may have the qualities in the passing game to keep up on the scoreboard and potentially even score late on to secure a backdoor cover.

Motivation is with the Buccaneers and the Lions did put in a considerable effort in coming through in Overtime in their Week 1 win. The expectation is that Detroit will win, but the Buccaneers are receiving plenty of points and can do just enough to stay within the number set for this big game.

Los Angeles Chargers @ Carolina Panthers Pick: The sharps have been backing the Carolina Panthers (0-1) despite the horrific Week 1 performance that saw them lose by 37 points at the home of Divisional rivals New Orleans Saints. They are trying to get Bryce Young all of the support he needs at Quarter Back and that is by signing a Receiver like Diontae Johnson and hiring David Canales as Head Coach.

It all went wrong in Week 1, but the sharps may feel an overreaction to one loss has provided them a number with which they can feel comfortable backing the Panthers as a home underdog.

While there has to be a slight feeling about this being something of a 'trap' line, the Los Angeles Chargers (1-0) may still be the right team to back, even if they have already been heavily supported by the public.

Beating the Las Vegas Raiders in Jim Harbaugh's first game as Head Coach will have given the Chargers a boost, although it was a tight, competitive game that was in the balance until deep into the Fourth Quarter when a decision made by Raiders Head Coach Antonio Pierce backfired. Instead of going for a 4th & 1, Pierce punted the ball away and the Chargers embarked on a drive that ultimately secured the victory.

This is a team that is going to feel like a work in progress, despite some obvious talent.

Justin Herbert did have over 3000 passing yards to go with his 20 Touchdown passes in 2023, but he is perhaps not fully healthy having missed the end of the season. Even with that in mind, the Harbaugh approach is going to be on making sure his team can grind things out on the ground and then rely on strong Defensive play to push the team forward and the Chargers showed what they are about in the win over the Raiders.

With JK Dobbins and Gus Edwards sharing the workload, the Chargers Offensive Line may be ready to find a way to burst open some big running lanes in this one. They will certainly be helped by the fact that Carolina's Defensive Line have lost Derrick Brown and it was tough for the Panthers to stop New Orleans moving the ball on the ground last week.

This could seep into this contest and that should keep Justin Herbert in a position to make plays when needed, even if he has lost a couple of key Receivers. Last week the focus was to make sure Herbert took care of the ball in a tight battle, but being in front of the chains should give the Quarter Back an opportunity and the Chargers should be able to have Offensive success in the first of two games to be played in the early Eastern Time Zone.

It is perhaps the biggest challenge for the Chargers in Week 2 with the long trip and the early kick off far from ideal for any team coming out of the West Coast. And ultimately a bit of tiredness and fatigue may be the best chance for the Carolina Panthers to play this one close and potentially earn the upset.

Bryce Young is going to have to be a lot better than Week 1 and prove that his rookie season is not going to cloud over his whole NFL career. The pressure is on having been selected as the Number 1 Pick in the 2023 Draft, which was before CJ Stroud and Anthony Richardson and the performances of those two players has certainly been showing a lot more potential than Young.

The Panthers have given up a lot of Draft Capital to bring in Young so they will want to give him time to develop, but the fans may lack the same patience. Big money was invested into the Panthers Offensive Line to give Bryce Young a bit more time than he had last season, while the Panthers would have hoped they could offer support with a more consistent rushing attack.

None of that was in evidence in the blowout in Week 1 and the Chargers Defensive Line are coming in behind a strong performance when containing the Las Vegas rush. If they can keep Bryce Young behind the chains, the Chargers have the kind of pass rush that should give Carolina fits and ultimately it may lead to one or two mistakes from the sophomore Quarter Back who is struggling with his confidence.

Carolina do have a positive recent history against the Chargers, but the last meeting was back in 2020 and the Panthers have slipped signiicantly.

Going against the sharps is never fun, but Jim Harbaugh's team can grind down Carolina on the ground and avoiding mistakes will give Los Angeles an advantage in this game. The spread has dropped below a key number over the last couple of days and the Chargers may have enough to secure a solid road win to keep the positive vibes going behind their new Head Coach.

Las Vegas Raiders @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: Both of these teams are playing behind road defeats from Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season, but the Baltimore Ravens (0-1) were a team that finished with the Number 1 Seed in the AFC last season and so have big expectations. They have also had an additional few days to prepare for their home opener in Week 2 having begun the season at the home of the Super Bowl Champions on Thursday, and that makes this long trip for the Las Vegas Raiders (0-1) feel challenging.

Antonio Pierce was given the permanent Head Coaching role with Las Vegas after guiding them to a strong end to the season. The players are clearly happy playing for Pierce and so a decision was made to not look outside of the building to replace Josh McDaniels, but the Head Coach had to face some criticism for punting the ball away from a 4th & 1 spot in the Fourth Quarter of the eventual defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers.

He was adamant that he had made the right decision, but Pierce may internally be looking to show improvement on his clock management and analytical calls.

The decision was seen as a cautious one in Week 1 and Antonio Pierce cannot afford to be careful when trying to win at the home of the Baltimore Ravens.

His team struggled to run the ball in the defeat to the Chargers and there is not going to be a lot of holes to exploit against this Ravens Defensive Line, but Las Vegas should be able to move the ball a little more efficiently than they did in the defeat in Week 1. Gardner Minshew will be hoping to be given a little more protection from the Raiders Offensive Line, but this is a Quarter Back who has been given a couple of very good Receiving options and will be throwing into a Secondary that allowed Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs to make some big plays through the air.

Of course Gardner Minshew is not Mahomes and the Raiders are not the Chiefs, but the likes of Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers are big playmakers and that should see Las Vegas have success. Turnovers have perhaps been the biggest hindrance to Minshew becoming a more consistent starter at Quarter Back and that is perhaps the biggest threat to the Raiders having some successes in this one.

Becoming one-dimensional would mean mistakes are more likely to be made, while the Baltimore pass rush is going to rush the Raiders Quarter Back too.

Extra time is important for the Baltimore Ravens as they bid to bounce back from the very close defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs when a toenail prevented them having the chance to go for two and the victory.

Frustrations aside, the Ravens will know it is a long season and one in which they will still feel they are a leading AFC contender.

Lamar Jackson is the key for Baltimore, but this is a team that is making a considerable effort to find balance in their Offensive play in order to keep opponents off-balance. Last week the Ravens were able to establish the run, but they are not going to give Derrick Henry a heavy workload and instead will also continue to use Jackson's dual-threat as a way to move the ball on the ground.

After seeing a couple of former Ravens rip through the Raiders Defensive Line after wearing them down, Baltimore's current group may be able keep the team in front of the chains, which is going to be key for their chances of putting a first win on the board. This will also be important to try and slow down the Raiders pass rush led by Maxx Crosby, and should open up the play-action for Lamar Jackson to connect with his underrated Receiving options.

The Raiders Secondary is not a bad one and they will feel they can make some big plays, as they did against the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 1. If Baltimore are in front of the chains, Lamar Jackson should have the time to find one of his Receivers down the field and the Ravens may just have a bit too much for the Raiders to keep up.

This is a big spread, but this is a long journey for the Raiders and the early start is not ideal. Las Vegas did win the last time they played Baltimore, but that was at home and they were blown out when last visiting here in 2018.

Last season Las Vegas were very competitive after Antonio Pierce took over as Head Coach, but the schedule was dominated by home games.

It is a spread that is wide enough to offer Las Vegas a backdoor cover opportunity, but the feeling is that Gardner Minshew may push to get his team back into the contest and that could lead to a backbreaking turnover that allows the hosts to cover.

Ultimately it may lead to a double digit win for the Ravens and they can be backed to cover the spread set.

New Orleans Saints @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: The most eye-catching scoreline from Week 1 was produced by the New Orleans Saints (1-0) who completely crushed Divisional rivals Carolina Panthers at home. They will now head out on the road to show that this is not simply beating up on one of the poorest teams in the NFL and any team that can win a pro game by 37 points has to be respected.

The Saints will be travelling to take on the Dallas Cowboys (1-0) in Week 2, a team that won convincingly on the road, despite being the underdog when the game kicked off at the Cleveland Browns.

The win was just hours after it was announced that Dak Prescott has signed a new contract with the Dallas Cowboys to be the face of the franchise for a few more years, although that will not have erased some of the criticisms that people have of the Quarter Back. The Cowboys and Prescott know that his new deal will be judged on whether he can take Dallas through to the Super Bowl at the very least, but it has been a long time since the Cowboys were the dominant force in the NFC.

Dak Prescott is under pressure, but Head Coach Mike McCarthy is under a lot more and anything less than a Super Bowl may see a change with some big name Coaches being linked with any vacancy that may need to be filled. The win at the Cleveland Browns will be encouraging, but the entire season will be judged on results in January and winning a third Divisional title in four years would certainly help.

33 points were scored in the win over the Browns, but the Offensive unit did not have any mind-blowing numbers. The Cowboys were facing a very good Defensive team, but Prescott will be looking to show off a lot more than 163 passing yards, while they only put up 102 yards on the ground, and it may benefit facing a New Orleans team that were perhaps made to look a lot better than they actually are.

We do know that the Cowboys Offensive Line is not as strong as it once was, and the Running Back corps is led by Ezekiel Elliot who has had his best days. They may not be able to run the ball as they once did, but Dallas should have some success on the ground against this New Orleans Defensive Line which is perhaps a little too experienced and thus worn.

The pass rush was working very well for the Saints in their win over Carolina, but it is a hard game to judge this team considering how badly Carolina performed. Naturally you have to expect a lot more from the Dallas Cowboys and Dak Prescott does have a couple of top Receivers that can make plays for him when he airs it out.

Throwing against this New Orleans Secondary will be a test for the Quarter Back with a new contract in the pocket, but Prescott should be able to put Dallas in a position to win.

Questions will be asked about Prescott, but the same can be said for Derek Carr as the New Orleans Quarter Back, while Dennis Allen has to be a on a short leash as Head Coach. Last season the Saints felt like a team that could beat those they expected to, but who would struggle when facing the better teams on the schedule and this Week 2 game is a big test to see if much has changed.

They ran the ball very well last week and the Saints may feel their Offensive Line can have some success opening running lanes again as long as this game is close. The Browns were able to rip off some solid runs against the Cowboys in Week 1, even behind a banged up Offensive Line, but Alvin Kamara has a lot of miles on the clock and whether he can pick up from where he left off against Carolina is another question.

And the biggest test for this New Orleans Offensive Line may be when they are sat behind the chains- in that case they are going to be dealing with a strong Dallas pass rush, which will rush Derek Carr into throwing against the Cowboys Secondary that will be looking to pick off passes. Interceptions turned the game against the Cleveland Browns and the Cowboys could force a mistake or two from Derek Carr, which may lead to a solid home win for Dallas.

Head Coach Dennis Allen will be under some pressure to show things have changed under his watch- his Saints team are 4-10-1 against the spread when playing after a win, while those teams that had a blowout win of over 28 points in Week 1 have followed up with a 16-24-3 record against the spread in Week 2.

With a new contract in his hand, Dak Prescott will want to show something to the home fans and he does have a record of 21-9 against the spread when set as a favourite of at least 6 points. It does feel like the Cowboys have a more sustainable path to backing up their Week 1 win over Cleveland than the New Orleans Saints and being at home should see Dallas come away with a solid win to remain unbeaten.

Pittsburgh Steelers @ Denver Broncos Pick: This Week 2 game would have been circled by Russell Wilson and there would have been a lot of interest in Pittsburgh Steelers (1-0) playing the Denver Broncos (0-1). Some of the excitement will have been reduced by the fact that Wilson is unlikely to suit up and instead it will be Justin Fields leading the Steelers into battle, but it is the Denver home opener and that is big for Head Coach Sean Payton and his rookie Quarter Back Bo Nix.

They were 'only' beaten by six points in the loss at the Seattle Seahawks, but Payton was not that happy with what he had seen, especially on the Offensive side of the ball.

At least this week the fans will be supporting Bo Nix when he has the ball in his hands, which may help, but it would have been much preferred to be facing a weaker Defense than the one the Steelers will have on the field.

Last week the Broncos were able to have some success on the ground and they will be given a boost if Garrett Bolles is able to take his place on the Offensive Line. The problem for Denver is going to be if Bo Nix continues to struggle to throw the ball as teams will choose to load the box and dare Nix to beat them with his arm.

The Steelers might have enough faith in their Defensive Line to control the trenches and prevent the Broncos from dominating on the ground without extra bodies being needed to contain the run. This is very important for Pittsburgh and they will certainly feel they can disrupt the Denver Offensive game-plan whenever they are behind the chains.

Holding the much talked about Atlanta Offense to less than 150 passing yards will have given the Steelers a huge boost and they may have enough up front to cover up any issues in the Secondary. Better teams may be able to expose those, but this Denver passing game is going to feel like a work in progress and rookie Bo Nix is going up against a well Coached Defensive unit.

Someone will need to step up to make plays for Bo Nix and this will be very different conditions playing at home compared with having to make a debut in the very loud Seattle Seahawks home opener.

Even so, it will be a struggle for the Broncos to find the consistency they want and so there is going to be some real pressure on their own Defense to step up and keep this one close on the scoreboard.

They will be helped by what is looking like a grind it out Pittsburgh Offense that struggled for consistency in the win over the Falcons in Week 1. It is a big win, and Justin Fields did enough to impress, but injuries on the Offensive Line made it a struggle to run the ball efficiently. With a one-two punch in the backfield, Pittsburgh may feel they can have more joy against this Denver Defensive Line that allowed Seattle to pick up 4.4 yards per carry in Week 1.

Last season the Broncos could not contain the run and Pittsburgh may be able to enjoy a better performance on the ground in this game, while also perhaps having a better plan to utilise the Justin Fields legs.

Much like the other side of the ball, Pittsburgh will find it a struggle whenever they are behind the chains and Justin Fields will not want to be throwing with the pocket collapsing and pressure all around him. The Steelers are keen to take their shots downfield, but Fields will do well to remember where Patrick Surtain II is at all times.

Avoiding turnovers could be key to the outcome of the game, while playing consecutive weeks on the road is always going to be challenging. Pittsburgh may be able to overcome the issues with Head Coach Mike Tomlin likely to give a rookie Quarter Back one or two looks that confuse him and the Steelers are capable of using their experience to just edge this one on the road.

The Steelers have lost four straight road games played in Denver, but it does feel like the Broncos need to show a much bigger improvement from Week 1 compared with the AFC North team. It is expected to be a close game until the end, but the bigger plays can be made by the Pittsburgh Steelers and they can cover in a winning effort.

MY PICKS: Buffalo Bills + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 William Hill (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 7.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Los Angeles Chargers - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Dallas Cowboys - 6 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Pittsburgh Steelers - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 2 Picks 2019 (September 12-16)

It might not have been a very good week for the NFL Picks, but I have to say it is great to have Sunday evenings back reserved for the League and knowing that will keep me ticking over for the next several months.

I love College Football too, but Saturday's can be a little busier to sit down and enjoy hours of the games on that day. Instead I tend to see the late primetime game and catch some of the 8:30pm kick offs (UK time), but Sunday is a day to lounge in the evening and that means watching a lot of Football.

There were some upsets and some blow outs in Week 1 of the NFL, but you don't want to be someone who makes grand overreactions to what you have seen. I will have a few thoughts down below before we get into the Week 2 Picks and my top five and bottom five teams, although again I would not want anyone to believe those are set in stone with injuries and a quick turn in form very possible at this time of the season.

Cleveland Browns are going to finish under 0.500- going into the new season, the Cleveland Browns had to be seen as a lively contender in the NFL this year after making some huge moves in the off-season. Many would have been tipping them up to win the AFC North and they would also have been seen as a real challenger to the New England Patriots to reach the Super Bowl.

A blow out home defeat to the Tennessee Titans would certainly have been an eye-opener for many, but that was a very difficult Week 1 game against a tough organisation who would have made it a scrap. Even then it was a game in the balance until Baker Mayfield got himself a little flustered and started turning the ball over and things would have felt a lot different if Cleveland had managed to sneak away with a win that was entirely possible going into the Fourth Quarter.

It would be easy to write off the Browns as being the same old team that struggles to compete, but there is too much talent here to think Week 1 will define their season. There was always the possibility that Cleveland would not be able to put it all together, but I expect a reaction from them and getting into the Bye Week at 3-3 would give them every chance to build some momentum into the rest of the regular season.

This week is a big game for Cleveland as they face another team who were upset in the opening week of the 2019 season and the Monday Night Football lights will be on them. The Dawg Pound will be hoping this will be the time they can remove the paper bags from their heads and be very proud of their team, but if the Browns fall to 0-2 I can see some major questions and decisions being asked and made.

Miami Dolphins might be the worst team in NFL history- this is a franchise which is the only one to have completed an unbeaten season in the NFL, but the current Miami Dolphins are a long way from that.

They looked completely disinterested when allowing the Baltimore Ravens to destroy them in Week 1 and now face the New England Patriots who could have Antonio Brown lined up for them.

Suggestions that there has been a mutiny with players demanding a trade away after the collapse against Baltimore did make me laugh... Miami have already traded away all of their best players aside from Xavien Howard, and so I would love to know which players have been on to their agents outside of the Corner Back who just signed a huge new deal with the Fins.

This looked a bad team before the season started and if the Secondary, which is the strength of the team, continues to perform at the level they did last week this is going to be the first franchise to ever have an unbeaten season and a winless season.

As a Dolphins fan I didn't expect much else, but there is light at the end of this miserable tunnel. If Miami can end up with the Number 1 Overall Pick in the Draft, they can begin to turn things around with the host of Picks they have stocked up and I would expect a much more competitive team in 2020.

Personally I would trade down from the Number 1 Pick and stock enough Draft Picks to have a chance of bringing in Trevor Lawrence in 2021, but I am not sure Miami fans will be looking to tank in back to back seasons before seeing a reason behind it. Either way, 2019 is going to be a miserable season in which one win will be tough to find if the effort does not improve significantly.

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC Championship Game is inevitable- if these two teams steer clear of injury I do think it is very difficult to see another team that can prevent them from making it consecutive AFC Championship Games against one another.

Last season the Patriots won on the road at Arrowhead so the one change I am anticipating is the venue, but New England and Kansas City look way ahead of the chasing pack in this Conference.

Inevitable is a strong word though- last week we saw Patrick Mahomes take a big hit and have to come to the sidelines to get checked out and an injury to either starting Quarter Back would send these teams back to the middle of the pack. The NFL season is a long, arduous one, and injuries can prove to be the key difference between those teams who make the Super Bowl and those who are also-rans, but I had these teams as the top two in the AFC before a Down had been played and I haven't seen anything to change my mind.

What to make of Antonio Brown?- Add in the fact that the Patriots have picked up Antonio Brown after his release from the Oakland Raiders and you have a potent Offense which is backed up by a better than expected Defensive unit.

Rob Gronkowski returning at some point this season would surprise no one, but it isn't all plain-sailing in the New England waters.

Antonio Brown might have signed, but it has since come out that he has been accused of sexual assault which leaves his participation clouded as the NFL work out their options. This is the latest of another controversy surrounding the Wide Receiver ever since he was traded to the Oakland Raiders from the Pittsburgh Steelers and the new story has covered up some of the suggestions that Brown and New England were in cahoots in bringing his time at Oakland to an end.

I do think there is a very fishy smell about how it all went down, but it might be a moot point if the assault is proven as I think that could spell the end of Brown's season before he has played a Down in the regular season.

I used to really respect Brown, but it is hard to do that considering all of the issues created over the last couple of months. You are innocent until proven guilty, but this assault complaint is the last thing he needed to add to his issues and it is very difficult to root for someone like this compared others around the League.

AB is not going to care what I think anyway, but that is beyond the point.

My Top Five

1) New England Patriots- the Super Bowl Champions who will be even more dangerous if Antonio Brown is cleared to play. Hard to see them beaten if they get to host the PlayOffs in January.

2) Dallas Cowboys- might be a strange choice at this high, but I think Dallas have all the tools to be the team to beat in the NFC this season. They will be challenged by the likes of the Philadelphia Eagles, Los Angeles Rams and New Orleans Saints, but the Cowboys look strong on both sides of the ball and I would favour them against all three if they were to host the PlayOffs.

3) Kansas City Chiefs- there are some questions Defensively, but as long as Patrick Mahomes is healthy, the Chiefs can score enough points to beat any team in the NFL. Tyreek Hill is out for a few weeks so I am interested to see if that has any impact on this team which will be something to keep in mind for later in the season.

4) Philadelphia Eagles- I loved the Eagles before Week 1 and I still think they are going to be there or thereabouts come the end of January. Carson Wentz needs to stay healthy, something he has not managed to do in each of the last two seasons, and the Secondary needs to play better, but the Eagles are a team that will be very dangerous if they make the post-season.

5) Green Bay Packers- we are going to find out plenty about the Packers in the weeks ahead considering the schedule, but if it really was the Defense's performance and not the week Chicago Offense that saw them give up just three points in Week 1, Green Bay are a live contender in the NFC.

My Bottom Five

32) Miami Dolphins- I expect I will be able to copy and paste this every week.

31) Arizona Cardinals- Kyler Murray had three poor Quarters and then exploded to help the Cardinals finish with a tie with the Detroit Lions. However I do have to think we are going to see more of the early play from the rookie and it could hold the Cardinals back.

30) New York Giants- I do think it is a matter of time before Daniel Jones takes over from Eli Manning as starting Quarter Back, but the Giants won't be competitive unless they play much better Defense than they did in Week 1.

29) New York Jets- not a good time to be a fan of either team from Gotham, especially after seeing the Jets blow a 16-0 lead against Divisional rivals the Buffalo Bills in Week 1.

28) Jacksonville Jaguars- I will hold my hands up and admit I thought the Jaguars could win the AFC South this season. But Nick Foles has gone down in what looks a long-term injury which means a rookie Quarter Back coming in, and I fear this may be a season that is lost much like those spent believing in Blake Bortles.

Week 2 Picks

It says something about my expectations that I end Week 1 with a 4-4 record and I am disappointed with the way the NFL Picks went. It was actually a winning record because of the split of the units, but I think it could have been a lot better if one or two things had broken my way.

The Washington Redskins Touchdown with 6 seconds left on the clock was irritating considering they converted two Fourth and longs on the drive. It was also the second time a team had thrown a backdoor cover against my pick in two days (Texas A&M the other) which was a blow.

Carolina also had their chances in their defeat to the Los Angeles Rams, although I was miles off the mark when it came to the Seattle Seahawks and Jacksonville Jaguars. Thankfully I had only one unit on the latter and so it turned into a positive week for the Picks, but one I am looking to improve on the several months ahead.

Week 2 begins with a Divisional battle between two 0-1 teams and ends on Monday Night Football with two more losing teams taking each other on. At this stage you can't secure PlayOff spots, but you can certainly put yourself in an early hole so look out for some tense Football games to be played in the days ahead.

It is the Panthers hosting Tampa Bay where Thursday Night Football heads in Week 2, but the line looks right on the money and I really can't find myself leaning one way or the other. I have to expect the Buccaneers to be better than what they showed in Week 1, but Carolina are desperate off a loss too and neither team has played as well on Thursday as they would have liked.

The Picks from the Sunday and Monday offerings will be found below and I will add them when I can over the next couple of days.


Seattle Seahawks @ Pittsburgh Steelers Pick: It would be very easy for people to draw a line through the Pittsburgh Steelers and suggest they are not the team they used to be now both Antonio Brown and Le'Veon Bell have left and coming off a Week 1 blow out at the hands of the New England Patriots.

However I don't think this is the time for grand sweeping statements about a team and I do think the Steelers are just simply not built to match up well with the Patriots. This week they are facing a team who are not up to the same level as the Super Bowl Champions and I also know the Steelers are usually far better at home than they are on the road.

The Seattle Seahawks arrive in town off the back of a very narrow win over the Cincinnati Bengals, a game in which they could have easily been beaten. At least the Seahawks have found a way to get to 1-0, but this is not an ideal spot for them facing an irritated Pittsburgh team and also playing in the early Eastern Time slot.

It says a lot about the performance last week that the Seattle Seahawks actually finished with almost 200 fewer yards than the Bengals. Russell Wilson will always give the Seahawks a chance in games, but he does not have the most effective supporting cast on either side of the ball and I do think that is something we will see on Sunday.

Offensively they have lost Doug Baldwin and Paul Richardson which means a new Wide Receiver or two are going to have to step up for Wilson. Unfortunately he is not expected to have a lot of support on the ground with Chris Carson likely to be running to a pretty strong Steel Curtain on the Defensive Line and keeping Seattle in third and long spots will give the Steelers every chance to get after Wilson at Quarter Back.

The Offensive Line has struggled in pass protection and last week the Bengals took full advantage. We didn't see the Pittsburgh Defense have much success in Week 1, but Tom Brady is much better protected and I would expect the Steelers to stall some drives with the pass rush forcing Wilson to release the ball quicker than he wants and asking Receivers to win battles they are perhaps not ready to do right now.

Pittsburgh don't have a great Defensive unit and they are coming off an outing where they allowed over 350 passing yards, but I expect the pass rush pressure to help the Secondary make some plays here. That could be important to get the Seahawks off the field and give the ball back to Ben Roethlisberger who was highly critical of his own performance last week.

Losing Bell and Brown was always going to have an impact on the Steelers, but James Connor and JuJu Smith-Schuster are ready to step in. Connor had a big year in 2018 with almost 1000 yards on the ground and Smith-Schuster was the top Receiver with the team, although facing off against the Number 1 Corner Back from the opposition is going to be a new challenge for him.

Both came out of Week 1 a little banged up, but both are also expected to suit up in this one. James Connor did not have a very good game against New England and Seattle's Defensive Line played pretty well in Week 1, but I still believe this Pittsburgh team can establish the run through their main workhorse in the backfield.

I also am expecting to see a much better performance from Smith-Schuster assuming he is close to 100% after hurting his toe last week. The Seattle Secondary made some awful plays against much weaker Receivers than the young Smith-Schuster in Week 1 and I do think Roethlisberger will be much more effective at getting the ball out to the new Number 1 Receiver in Steel City.

In Week 1 Andy Dalton had almost 400 passing yards against Seattle despite missing AJ Green and I do think the whole Steelers Offense will look much better in Week 2 compared with their efforts on Sunday Night Football. They do need another Receiver to step up and open things up for Smith-Schuster, but there is some talent here and I am looking for the home team to bounce back and get back to 1-1.

The spread won't be easy to cover because of the issues the Pittsburgh Secondary are going to have for much of the season. Russell Wilson might then have a chance for a late drive to earn a backdoor cover, but I think this is going to be a big bounce back spot for the Steelers and I am looking for them to win and cover the number.

The favourite has covered in five straight games in the series between these teams, although it is one that is played every four years so not largely relevant. There is one trend that really does bother me about the Steelers, but I expect them to be very focused in this one coming in off a loss where they do have a strong record as a home favourite, while also being 39-27 against the spread coming in off a loss under Mike Tomlin.

Ben Roethlisberger is 45-32 against the spread off a straight up loss, while the Seattle Seahawks are 0-8-2 against the spread in their last ten games as non-Conference road underdogs of less than 7 points. I think the Pittsburgh Defensive Line will be key to stopping the Seahawks and I do think the Steelers Offense will bounce back from a poor showing in Week 2.


Minnesota Vikings @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFC North looks to be a highly competitive Division and there are three teams who will have felt they can lead the way into the PlayOffs in January.

Two of those met in Week 1 when the Green Bay Packers started the season with a 1-0 record thanks to a win over the Chicago Bears. By the end of Week 2 the Packers and the Minnesota Vikings, who beat Atlanta in Week 1, will be the only team with a 100% record (assuming no tie like last season) in the NFC North.

Both teams are going to be looking for the Defensive units to be the key to the outcome of this game after both restricted opponents in Week 1. That means they are asking their current Offenses to do just enough to win games and it was certainly the case last week as neither team got close to reaching 300 total yards from an Offensive standpoint yet still managed to head into Week 2 with 1-0 record.

For a long time in Week 1 the Minnesota Vikings managed the lead they had and both of these teams will know there is some real room for improvement. Both were actually outgained in terms of yardage in Week 1 and that is not a sustainable way to go on and keep winning games and you can see the layers are not finding it easy to separate the teams with Green Bay favoured thanks to being at home.

I was behind the Green Bay Packers in Week 1 and they can really build some momentum over the coming weeks if they can win this game. Five of the six games will be played at home, but Aaron Rodgers and the Offensive unit have to get on the same page if they have serious ambitions of putting a strong winning start on the board with a difficult schedule ahead.

There might be a feeling that Green Bay can get a little more going Offensively having played on Thursday in Week 1 and having a couple of extra days to prepare for this one. I expect to see a little more out of Aaron Jones and the running game for the Packers after some of the difficulties the Vikings had up front in Week 1 and that is going to be important for Green Bay in being able to give Aaron Rodgers the best chance to move the chains.

Last week the Chicago Bears were able to get to Rodgers in passing downs and the Vikings were also very good with the pass rush in their win over the Falcons. If the run can be established then at least the pass rush is slowed down enough for Rodgers to set up play-action and to throw into a Secondary which gave up 272 passing yards to Matt Ryan in Week 1.

Davante Adams is the key for Green Bay, but they do have younger Receivers who can step up as long as Aaron Rodgers has the time to make plays and I do anticipate the Packers having success moving the chains.

It feels like they will have more success than the Minnesota Vikings despite what looks a big win on paper against the Falcons last week. Dalvin Cook was a huge influence on the day, but running the ball against the Green Bay Packers might be a difficulty for every team around the League and that could be very important on the day.

Unbelievably Minnesota scored 28 points last week despite Kirk Cousins throwing for fewer than 100 passing yards. Head Coach Mike Zimmer does want the Vikings to be a smash-mouth team that can run the ball effectively, but if the Packers can at least put the clamps on Cook it will have to be a change of tactics from the visitors and the responsibility of moving the chains will be shouldered by the arm of Cousins.

The Quarter Back was largely well protected last week, but some of that was down to not throwing the ball and the run constantly hurting the Falcons. This week will be different with the Packers likely to unleash a strong pass rush to get into the face of Kirk Cousins and I do think that can help them stall drives and perhaps even lead to a mistake or two from a turnover-prone QB.

Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs have to be respected as Wide Receivers, but the Packers might have one of the more under-rated Defenses in the NFC and I expect them to make enough plays to slow down the Vikings. Kirk Cousins will take risks and some will pay off, but I would not be surprised if a critical turnover or two costs the Vikings here, especially alongside what I believe will be a more effective Offensive outing from Green Bay.

Green Bay have lost three of their last four against Minnesota, but Aaron Rodgers is 36-29 against the spread playing with revenge and is also 46-28 against the spread as the home favourite. The Packers are 11-1 against the spread as favourites of less than 8 points off a Divisional game and they are 7-1 against the spread in their last eight following a game against their rivals Chicago.

The Packers are also 10-1 against the spread when favourites in a Divisional game immediately following a Divisional game and playing a rival who have won a non-Divisional game.

In the first quarter of a season the Vikings are 2-11 against the spread as road underdogs when playing an opponent off a Divisional game. While I like Minnesota as a team, I think the Green Bay Defense is going to be the better of the two units on the day and I think that will give the Packers the edge as they win and cover at home.

It can only be seen as a bonus that the Vikings are getting more of the money in Vegas so far, although I doubt this spread gets any lower than where it stands now.


Jacksonville Jaguars @ Houston Texans Pick: Two AFC South teams who started the season 0-1 meet in Week 2 and it is a big game with an open Division very much up for grabs. I would not rule out either the Jacksonville Jaguars nor the Houston Texans from recovering from 0-2, but both Head Coaches will be keen to avoid having to find out when they meet in Houston on Sunday.

Later this season these two teams will head to London to face one another, but that is for another as they look to recover from opening defeats. The Houston Texans might have had the more heartbreaking of the losses having given up a Field Goal with time running out on Monday Night Football at the New Orleans Saints, but the devastating injury suffered by Nick Foles of the Jacksonville Jaguars makes it difficult to know how they are going to recover.

Nick Foles had been signed by the Jaguars to help them move to the next level with the fans and the Coaches finally having enough of Blake Bortles. Having a Super Bowl winning Quarter Back is obviously an upgrade, but the injury suffered in the blow out defeat to the Kansas City Chiefs at home has set them back.

Gardner Minshew had to come in for Foles last week and while performing well enough, it is a significant pressure for a rookie to be given the keys to a team that were hoping for a PlayOff spot as a bare minimum. He might be able to have some success if Leonard Fournette can back up his strong performance in Week 1 when averaging 5 yards per carry against the Chiefs.

That is not going to be easy for the Jaguars to have the run established when you think the Houston Texans have been one of the stronger teams against the rush in 2018. They did struggle against the New Orleans Saints, but Alvin Kamara is a special Running Back and the respect for Drew Brees is unlikely to be replicated in this game as the Texans try and take away a key player for Gardner Minshew.

The Quarter Back may have some success throwing the ball, but I also think he is going to be dealing with plenty of pressure up front if the Jaguars are not able to run the ball as they would like. Houston might have traded away Jadeveon Clowney and JJ Watt is coming in off a quiet week, but the Texans should have more successes getting after Minshew whenever he is in third and long spots and I do think Houston can slow down this Offensive outfit, especially one led by a rookie Quarter Back who was a project selection rather than one expected to challenge for a starting role in 2019.

As long as Houston respect the situation that is in front of them they should have a chance of restricting the Jaguars Offensively. It will be a different challenge on the other side of the ball for the Texans even with one of the most improving Quarter Backs in the NFL on their side.

Deshaun Watson had a strong outing against the New Orleans Saints and almost did enough to lead the Houston Texans to a win, but the Offensive Line is still a major issue for this team. He will be looking for Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson to pick up from where they left off against the Saints when they had a very strong day running the ball and putting the Texans ahead of the chains will be crucial in moving into a position to win this game.

They had a bad day in the office as they allowed six Sacks to the Saints, but the Offensive Line were better in setting up the run and I think they can get the chains moving on the ground in this one. Deshaun Watson is another who can make plays with his legs as his Touchdown against the Saints showed, but he did bang up his back in that run and Houston will be better served looking for the Quarter Back to protect himself having had injuries in each of the last two seasons.

Watson should be able to make some big plays against the Jaguars Secondary which did not perform anywhere near the standard they should have been at in their Week 1 loss. I can expect the Jaguars to want to step up their play to try and protect their rookie Quarter Back, but Watson is a stand out Quarter Back who has some big weapons in the passing game that will become all the more dangerous if Houston are running the ball effectively.

Houston beat the Jaguars in both Divisional games in 2018 and limited them to 10 total points in those games. I like the Texans to continue their dominance of the Jaguars with the desperation of wanting to avoid a 0-2 hole keeping them focused against an opponent missing their starting Quarter Back.

Deshaun Watson is 5-2 against the spread off a loss and he has been solid enough in Divisional games where he has helped the Texans produce a 5-3 record against the spread. The Texans are 23-14 against the spread as the home favourite coming in off a loss.

The recent trends for the Jaguars don't make good reading and being able to oppose where the action has been for this Week 2 game makes me very satisfied in backing the Houston Texans to win and cover a big mark.


San Francisco 49ers @ Cincinnati Bengals Pick: The San Francisco 49ers used some big plays from their Defensive unit to come up with a big win at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 1, but they are going to need more from the Offensive side of the ball to fulfil predictions of being a dark horse in the NFC.

The spot in Week 2 is not an ideal one as the 49ers play the second of back to back road games and also in the early Eastern Time slot against the Cincinnati Bengals who came close to a big upset in Week 1. The Bengals came up short against the Seattle Seahawks on the road, but they were superior in almost all aspects of the game and very unfortunate to leave the West Coast with a defeat.

It is a new era in Cincinnati who are now Coached by Zac Taylor in place of Marvin Lewis and he was pretty critical of the performance in Week 1 despite the Bengals coming as close to the upset as they got. There are areas on the Offensive side of the ball that Taylor will want to see cleared up and Andy Dalton does have an opportunity to back up his personal performance in the opening game when facing this 49ers Defense.

Dalton will be keen to have Joe Mixon on the field after the Running Back suffered an injury in the loss to Seattle. The participation of Mixon will become clearer in the next couple of days, but it does feel like he is going to miss out and so Cincinnati are going to need someone to step up to try and keep the Offense in front of the chains in this one.

That is quite important for the Bengals, but the Offensive Line is one that has a lot of work to do to get together. It was not only rushing the ball that was difficult for Cincinnati last week, but they struggled to protect Dalton as they would have wanted to which is going to be an issue against the 49ers pass rush that has been revitalised with Draft Picks and Free Agent signings.

Andy Dalton did have a very good passing game last week though and he should have some success against this 49ers Secondary which is not as good as it might have looked in Week 1. Richard Sherman is still a strong Corner Back, but outside of him there are some holes that can be exploited and I think Dalton can have success even without AJ Green.

If it wasn't for some of the turnovers in the win over Tampa Bay, San Francisco might have had a few more questions to answer about their Offensive unit and Jimmy Garoppolo in particular. The Quarter Back is coming off a major knee injury, and he has not looked right in practice, pre-season or in Week 1 of the season when he would have expected to have a decent match up against the Tampa Bay Secondary.

Garoppolo was held to under 160 passing yards and the 49ers could not get the running game going at all with Tevin Coleman going down with an injury. Now they are going to use Matt Breida and Raheem Mostert in a committee at Running Back, but neither is expected to have a lot of success in this game if the Bengals Defensive Line can pick up from where they left off in the defeat to Seattle.

This is where the strength of the Bengals Defensive unit lies and they will believe they can force San Francisco to have to rely on the arm of Garoppolo to move the chains. With the pass rush looking in good shape in Week 1 and the Secondary looking like it could also be better than some believe, the Bengals will believe they have a team that is set up to win this game even without a key Receiver available.

Turnovers are going to be important, but I think Cincinnati can use the spot to get the better of their visitors. The Defensive unit should be able to restrict what San Francisco are able to do and I think Andy Dalton will be able to make enough plays against the San Francisco Secondary to give his team the chance to move back to 0.500 for the season.

The Bengals are favoured and so far Jimmy Garoppolo has been a Quarter Back you want to back in an underdog role. However I am not convinced he is at 100% following his return from an injury, and the Bengals have improved to 11-2 against the spread when facing NFC opponents in the first quarter of the season.

Playing the early Eastern Time spot after being on the road last week is not ideal for the 49ers either and I think the Bengals can make the plays they need on both sides of the ball to win this one and cover the spread.


Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Redskins Pick: Blowing out one Divisional opponent will have gotten the fans behind them, but the Dallas Cowboys will really have the rest of the NFC taking notice if they can beat down another. They are big favourites to do that on the road this week against the Washington Redskins who blew a 17-0 lead in Week 1 to be downed by the Philadelphia Eagles.

Expectations with the Redskins have to be limited when you look at the roster and most are looking forward to seeing Dwayne Haskins taking over at Quarter Back at some point this season. That is not a slight on the Case Keenum performance in Week 1, but most know what they are getting with the veteran and instead it is expected that the keys will be turned over to younger players going foward.

Derrius Guice was supposed to be the start of that at Running Back, but an injury saw him miss his rookie year and the injury bug has bitten again early in 2019. He had made Adrian Peterson a healthy scratch in Week 1, but that won't be the case in Week 2 with Peterson expected to be the feature Running Back and Chris Thompson spotting him in passing downs.

Both Peterson and Thompson could have strong weeks if the Dallas Defensive Line is not significantly better than they were in the win over the New York Giants. The win has to be celebrated, but the Cowboys gave up 151 yards on just 17 carries last week and can expect the Redskins to try and pound the ball behind his makeshift Offensive Line in Week 2.

The Offensive Line issues are a concern for Washington, but I think they can have a better time of it at home and especially knowing they are going to try and lean on Peterson. If the veteran can pick up some big plays on the ground, it will make life all the easier for Case Keenum and allow him to work from third and manageable spots.

It is a key to the chance of success for the Redskins as Keenum will have opportunities to make plays against a Dallas Secondary that gave up over 300 passing yards to Eli Manning and the Giants last week. He will want to get the ball out of his hands quickly so being in short distances for First Downs has to be a benefit for Keenum who could also have Jordan Reed back this week for additional Receiving options.

Sustaining drives will also be key in giving the Washington Defensive unit a chance to rest and recuperate having seen that unit worn down in the loss to the Eagles as the Divisional rivals were able to keep them on the field for long periods while the Washington Offense became bogged down.

Stopping the Dallas Cowboys looks like it could be a big challenge, but you don't want to make sweeping statements from the Week 1 performance. Dak Prescott was very good, but the Washington Redskins Defense look stronger than the one the New York Giants sent out onto the field and they should feel they can at least give the Cowboys something to think about.

The strength of the Redskins is on the Defensive Line and they can at least make Ezekiel Elliot work for his numbers. To be fair to the Giants, they actually played the run pretty well last week and Washington will feel they can follow that blueprint to at least make Dak Prescott beat them with his arm.

Prescott has been given some big Receiving weapons in the last twelve months with Amari Cooper joined by an improving Michael Gallup, Randall Cobb and a returning Jason Witten. The Offensive Line might not have opened a lot of holes for big runs, but they did protect their Quarter Back who responded by throwing for over 400 yards and there are some holes in the Washington Secondary that I expect Dak Prescott to expose.

Washington do have a better pass rush than the Giants too, but they might not be able to disrupt Prescott as much as they would like. While they can make some plays on the Defensive side of the ball, the Redskins have to make sure they control the clock as much as possible if they are going to earn the upset at home.

I am not sure that will happen, but I do think the Redskins can keep this one close as they play a second Divisional game of the season. The underdog has a very strong 31-11 record against the spread in the last forty-two between these teams and Case Keenum improved to 16-8 against the spread in the underdog role last week.

Dak Prescott has been very strong in the role of the road favourite which has to be respected, but they are 1-7 against the spread when playing after a game against the New York Giants. I am a little wary about how well Dallas have played against their Divisional rivals in the last two seasons and they improved to 11-2 against the spread in their last thirteen Divisional games, but Washington can provide enough Offensive output of their own to keep the game close.


Kansas City Chiefs @ Oakland Raiders Pick: A major Offensive weapon is going to be missing for a few weeks for the Kansas City Chiefs, but in an alternative reality it would have been Patrick Mahomes going down instead of Tyreek Hill. I have no doubt that Hill is a loss considering he produced almost 1500 Receiving yards in 2018, but if Mahomes had gone down to a serious injury I think the impact would be much greater and one that could have seen most draw a line through them as a Super Bowl contender.

Patrick Mahomes is that important to the Chiefs and he showed he can still move the chains and help the team produce big points in the blow out win over the Jacksonville Jaguars last week. Sammy Watkins might finally be ready to show that he can be a top Wide Receiver if he can stay healthy, while Travis Kelce will be difficult to slow.

It is very difficult to know how the Oakland Raiders are going to slow the Kansas City Offense even though they are coming in off an emotional victory over the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. The Raiders have had a tough off-season mainly down to the drama caused by Antonio Brown, but they have drawn a line under that and the team look like they are together and playing for one another.

While they did limit the Denver Broncos to 16 points, the Oakland Raiders were not involved in a dominant Defensive effort in the win. The Kansas City Chiefs should be able to establish LeSean McCoy and Damien Williams against the Raiders who gave up 4.3 yards per carry in Week 1 and who will be more aware of trying to slow down Patrick Mahomes and his attack through the air.

With the Chiefs moving the ball on the ground, it should open things up for Mahomes at some point and both Running Backs are decent Receivers coming out of the backfield too. Travis Kelce and Sammy Watkins will provide Mahomes with the Receivers he needs to make the big plays he enjoys and I think Kansas City are going to get into a routine Offensively as they did last week, especially more so considering Gareon Conley is going to be missing in the Secondary for the Raiders.

The best bet for Jon Gruden and his Raiders team to have a chance of winning this game has to be by putting some long drives together and keeping the Chiefs Offense on the sidelines. Losing Antonio Brown the player is a blow, but the person was a distraction and Oakland did look like they were playing hard for one another last week as Derek Carr helped lead them to the win over the Denver Broncos.

Rookie Josh Jacobs had a big day running the ball and he might have a little more room to operate in this one, while Carr will look for Darren Waller and Tyrell Williams to pick up from where they left off on Monday Night. We saw last season that it is possible to make plays against the Kansas City Secondary and that was the case again in Week 1 so I do think Oakland will have some success, but the pressure of matching the Offensive output that Mahomes provides for the Kansas City Chiefs could eventually force Oakland to crack.

The Chiefs are 11-5 against the spread in the last sixteen visits to the Oakland Raiders and the favourite is 9-4 against the spread in the last thirteen overall. Oakland also put in a lot of emotional effort into the win on Monday Night Football and they are 1-4 against the spread in their last five Sunday games following an appearance on the nationally televised last game of the week.

Oakland are 0-11 against the spread when winning both straight up and against the spread in their previous game and facing a Divisional rival who have won a non-Divisional game. The Raiders are 1-8 against the spread when winning as the underdog and facing a Divisional opponent who have won by at least ten points in their last game.

At the same time the Chiefs are 7-1 against the spread off a straight up win and facing a Divisional rival who are off an underdog win. The only shame is that the public seem to be fully behind the Kansas City Chiefs at the moment and the sharps are with the Oakland Raiders, a position I don't like opposing too many times.

However the trends favour the Chiefs and I think they can find too much scoring to move clear of the Oakland Raiders in a big AFC West game. I expect Patrick Mahomes will lead to at last one more scoring drive than Derek Carr, but I will look for the Chiefs to continue finding the End Zone instead of settling for Field Goals too.


Chicago Bears @ Denver Broncos Pick: One of the teams that were considered a real favourite to win the NFC Championship and represent the Conference in the Super Bowl were beaten in the first game of the 2019 NFL season. The Chicago Bears will be looking for much better when they head into Week 2, although they are going up against a Denver Broncos team who have also dropped their opening game of the season in the last game played in Week 1.

In usual circumstances a non-Conference game would not have the same edge as other games, but neither team will want to head into Week 3 at 0-2 which is a tough position for teams to make the PlayOffs down the years. But the added intrigue to this game is that Vic Fangio has taken over as the Denver Head Coach in 2019 having been the Chicago Defensive Co-Ordinator in 2018 when helping the Bears become one of the best Defenses in the NFL.

From the minute this game was scheduled the feeling was the Denver Broncos should be a narrow favourite considering the inside knowledge that Fangio would have about what has been a limited Chicago Offense. After seeing Mitchell Trubisky struggle in Week 1 you might have expected Denver to be a slightly bigger favourite, but the Broncos were pretty awful themselves on Monday Night Football.

Even with that in mind I think the Broncos being the underdog of almost a Field Goal amount of points does not feel right and I like Denver to find a way to keep this one competitive. Vic Fangio will have spent the last few days preparing his team to deal with the nuances of the Chicago Offense but the relatively one-dimensional performance of the Bears in Week 1 should make it a little easier for the Head Coach.

The Denver Defensive Line will be looking to clamp down on David Montgomery and Tarik Cohen from the Running Back positions and make sure that Trubisky is going to have to beat them with his arm. The Quarter Back can move the chains with his legs too, but Chicago struggled to run the ball as a team against the Green Bay Packers and now have to try and find a way to establish the run against this Denver Defensive Line that just held Oakland to 3.5 yards per carry.

It is the strength of this Denver team even if they underperformed in Week 1 and I expect the whole Defensive unit to step up in the first game at Mile High on Sunday. If they can keep Chicago in third and long spots, the Denver Broncos can turn their pass rushers loose and get after Trubisky whose Offensive Line allowed 5 Sacks in the defeat to the Packers last week.

I expect Mitchell Trubisky will struggle, but Joe Flacco is another who could have a difficult day after a poor debut for the Denver Broncos on Monday Night. Part of the problem for Flacco is that the Offensive Line is one that looks pretty weak having needed to be rebuilt this off-season and they struggled to protect the Quarter Back and now have Khalil Mack and the Bears coming to town fresh off of Sacking Aaron Rodgers 6 times.

Flacco, like Trubisky, is going to need to have the run established to just open things up Offensively and also keep him in third and manageable spots. However the Chicago Defensive Line remains strong and the feeling is that we are going to see a low-scoring game where both Defensive units are coming out on top more often than not.

Courtland Sutton and Emmanuel Sanders could make some big plays for Denver against a Defensive unit that have lost some key players in the Secondary. Noah Fant will also need to be used more than he was in Week 1, but I can see why Denver are the slight underdogs in a game that might not feature a lot of scoring.

I go back to Vic Fangio and his insider knowledge being the key difference between the teams. While he will know the tendencies of Mitchell Trubisky and the way the Offense wants to get going, his knowledge of the Chicago Defense will also be very important in helping Joe Flacco and the Denver Offense put a successful game plan together.

The public don't believe that with Chicago getting the majority of bets being placed on them, but I think it is an overlooked factor that could provide the difference on the day.

Chicago are just 1-5 against the spread in their last six games before playing on Monday Night Football, while Denver are 10-0 against the spread as a home underdog playing a non-Divisional opponent following a Division game.

The Bears have been good off a loss which has to be respected and they have had a lot more time to prepare than the Denver Broncos. However I will back the home underdog with the insight from their Head Coach proving to be critical on the day.

MY PICKS: Pittsburgh Steelers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Green Bay Packers - 2.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Houston Texans - 8 Points @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Washington Redskins + 6 Points @ 1.85 Coral (2 Units)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Denver Broncos + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)