Featured post

NBA Playoffs 2026- Second Round Picks Game 1-4 (Monday 4th May-Monday 11th May)

NBA Playoffs- Second Round Game 1-4 Picks Outside events meant not having the same time as I would have expected to put the NBA Picks on the...

Showing posts with label Relegation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Relegation. Show all posts

Thursday, 16 August 2012

Premier League 2012-13 Preview

The London Olympics have come and gone and we are now just days away from the beginning of the Premier League football season, the start of nine months of ups and downs, excitement and disappointment and the ultimate roller-coaster for the fans of the individual clubs.

Speaking about the Olympics, I have been a little perturbed by the number of articles that have been written in the media comparing the 'good aspects' of the Games with all the 'bad aspects' of football- personally I think that is a little harsh as there isn't the same sort of pressure on the athletes of the Games outside of their sport as there is on footballers who have every aspect of their lives dissected for public consumption.

The bottom line is that people want to know everything about these footballers, while many of the athletes at the Olympic Games are 'forgotten' in the four year periods between Games, while I also heard an excellent point on the radio explaining how so few are willing to put up someone like Justin Gatlin and compare him with a Paul Scholes and actually show football in a positive light.

Others have bemoaned the behaviour of the football fan at matches- yes, some do take it too far in what they believe is 'banter', while some of the cruder chants are not necessary, but people invest a lot of time and money in their clubs and frustration can boil over which will lead to exclamations laced with some profanity.

I don't think as many people invest that same kind of interest in any of the events at the Olympics, so the crowds generated at such events are vastly different compared with a regular season football match.

Issues about behaviour on the field have been there for some time, but that will only be weeded out by bringing it in at youth level and gradually changing things, so complaining about it seems a little pointless to me.

All in all, I can't wait for the new season and a chance to watch all the drama unfolding over the next few months and below I will break down the Premier League into sections and look at all the contenders in this new season.


Winner and Champions League Places
Manchester City: The reigning Premier League Champions are the favourites to retain their title in the coming season and I do think they are the team to beat in the coming season.

It is a surprise that they haven't invested too much in the playing squad this Summer with Jack Rodwell the only major incoming signing, but I do believe the UEFA Financial Fair Play Rules may just have them a little worried. However, the fact they have Carlos Tevez back for the full season (barring any refusals to warm up as a substitute in the coming months) is a big boost to an already very productive forward line, while the spine of the side looks very good from Joe Hart through Vincent Kompany through Yaya Toure, David Silva and Sergio Aguero.

There has to be a slight concern of the understudy, Stefan Savic, to the first choice centre halves, but the attacking options at Roberto Mancini's disposal looks set to fire them to another title, while I also believe they have the best midfield in the League which will allow them to dictate more matches than their rivals can at this moment.


Manchester United: It was a heartbreaking end to the 2011-12 season for Manchester United as they suffered a kick in the teeth that they have delivered to so many others in the last 20 years. The League should never have slipped from their grasp after taking an 8 point lead in the title race with just 6 games to play, and it is clear that this is the priority this season.

Shinki Kagawa is the big Summer signing (as I write this), but there remains a lot of off-field turmoil as the fans continue to make their feelings about the owners very clear. The lack of investment remains in the middle of the park remains a real issue and they have to hope that both Paul Scholes and Ryan Giggs do not show their age as 'father time' can quickly catch up with you.

However, they still look good enough to compete in the Premier League with the personnel they have, and Nemanja Vidic's return is huge considering it was goal difference that cost them the title last season. 

'If Robin Van Persie can be signed from Arsenal, Manchester United may have enough in them to take the title back from their 'noisy neighbours' with the potential for extra goals and their leader in defence back in action'- this is what I wrote before it was announced that United had agreed a deal with Arsenal, and I now believe United can nick the title back as long as Rooney and Van Persie are compatible and not the second coming of the Didier Drogba-Fernando Torres issues.

My full views on Manchester United can be found here


Chelsea: After winning the Champions League in dramatic fashion, Chelsea have been on a spending spree this Summer, bringing in the likes of Eden Hazard (who was much sought after), Marko Marin and Oscar as Roberto Di Matteo looks to freshen up what was an ageing squad.

It will take time for some of these players to settle into the pace of the Premier League and there could be an issue of consistency in their play, although the younger legs will see a changing of the guard in the first team.

Even with those new signings bringing excitement to Stamford Bridge, it has to be a little concerning that Di Matteo has made it clear that he will not change tact from the 'negative' tactics he used to win the Champions League and the FA Cup- it took a lot of luck to do so last season and we have seen previously, Rafa Benitez being a notable example, that it doesn't work over a 38 game League season.

Losing Didier Drogba is also a big blow to this side, particularly if Fernando Torres cannot turn back the clock to his 2009 form and I still have a few issues about a defence that doesn't have a lot of depth if injuries take their toll.

Getting back into a top four spot will be the priority for the Blues this season and I think that is the best they can hope for as I still think there is a significant gap between themselves and the top two sides.


Arsenal: The Gunners finished 19 points behind the top two teams last season and they remain a side that is always liable to losing some of their better players as they become disillusioned with the lack of silverware picked up over the last few seasons.

There continues to be rumours surrounding the future of Robin Van Persie, a player that has made it clear he will not be extending his time at the Emirates Stadium and one that could be on his way to Old Trafford before the transfer window closes.

The Dutchman was so influential last season in terms of the goals he was getting and I don't think Lukas Podolski or Olivier Giroud have the same consistency in front of goal that Van Persie displayed last season.

If Van Persie leaves the club, Arsenal's place in the top four could be under significant threat from their local rivals Tottenham Hotspur. Barcelona also continue to sniff around Alex Song, who would be another major loss for Arsene Wenger, while Jack Wilshire is not due back until October at the earliest having missed all of last season.

A few of the issues at the Emirates Stadium were covered by the form of Van Persie last season, and I think they could have trouble holding onto a top four place if their talisman is sold in this transfer window, something which is probably playing a big part in them playing hard ball with potential suitors.

All of the Arsenal write-up was written before the Robin Van Persie sale to Manchester United had been confirmed and I think the Gunners are now in for a tough season in holding on to a top four spot.


Tottenham Hotspur: It was a surprising turn of events that saw Harry Redknapp removed as manager of Tottenham Hotspur in the off-season and he was replaced by Andre Villa-Boas who is looking to restore his damaged reputation following his time as manager of Chelsea last season.

Spurs look to have retained the services of Luka Modric after he once again asked to leave the club, the second Summer in succession he has done so, although the loss of Emmanuel Adebayor (returned to Manchester City after his loan) and failure to sign a striker leaves them looking a little light up front as far as I am concerned.

The defence has been improved with the signing of Jan Vertonghen, but they do look a weaker side than last season because of the forward situation and I am sure that is an area they will look to rectify before the transfer window is slammed shut.

Tottenham will not be in the Champions League thanks to Chelsea winning that competition last season, but they will think they can push Arsenal if the latter loses Robin Van Persie. Spurs will need to find another option up front if they are to push enough to stay in the top four this season and get a chance to get back into the Champions League.

Luka Modric has been sold to Real Madrid since I wrote this and he will be a big loss- there is a lot of pressure on Gylfi Sigurdsson to make a seamless entry into this midfield and the team do look a notch or two weaker than last season in the attacking areas of the pitch.


European Places

Liverpool: Despite winning the Carling Cup and reaching the Final of the FA Cup, it was largely a disappointing season for Liverpool that had made large investments over the previous six months in order to get into the coveted Champions League places.

The poor second half of the season cost Kenny Dalglish his job and it was later admitted that even winning the FA Cup would not have been enough to prevent that from happening. Now they hand the reigns over to Brendan Rodgers who enjoyed success at Swansea, but who is now going to have to prove himself all over again.

It is clear that the players are going to have to work in a new system, one that has seen Andy Carroll shopped around the League as the 35 million pound man looks surplus to requirements after going through a tough period on Merseyside.

Fabio Borini and Joe Allen, two players Rodgers is familiar with, have been brought into the club, but there hasn't been the same level of investment as last Summer (although they continue to be linked with a number of players in the press). Lucas has returned from a major injury, but a European place looks the limit of their potential this season as they get used to a new voice in the dressing room.

A Cup run would show they are going the right way, but more consistency in their League form is what the owners demand this season.


Everton: I was very surprised to see David Moyes was overlooked for the Tottenham Hotspur job in the Summer and it looks like there is a glass ceiling above him as the 'bigger clubs' feel he is inexperienced at the highest level, but yet no one is willing to give him a chance to prove himself.

Moyes led Everton to a top 7 finish last season and that is something I feel they can achieve again and perhaps even finish above their local rivals Liverpool. They surprisingly let Tim Cahill go in the Summer, although he isn't the same player from a couple of years ago, and the permanent signing of Steven Pienaar looks an upgrade.

Steven Naismith has been brought in from the now defunct Rangers and he should blend well with his former partner in Scotland, Nikica Jelavic, who has made a big impact in English football since joining Everton in January.

The sale of Jack Rodwell for 15 million pounds to Manchester City may mean Moyes is going to reinvest in the playing squad, but the team will need to steer clear of injuries if they are to make a concerted effort to move up from 7th that they finished last season and I think finishing above Liverpool would be seen as a successful season.

David Moyes will be looking to win his first piece of silverware since taking over as manager here.


Newcastle United: It was a great season for Newcastle United last year, one that fell a little short of getting the team into a Champions League spot and I am a little unsure they are going to be able to repeat their form to finish as high again this season.

Things just seemed to click for Newcastle last season with the signings of Demba Ba and Papiss Cisse providing a number of goals (it seems that as soon as Ba stopped scoring, Cisse was signed and took over). However, both have now been exposed to the Premier League managers and may find it difficult to repeat their individual successes, which in turn may affect the success of the whole team.

Alan Pardew has not brought in a lot of new faces to the club and I think their surprise element is gone and may see them slip down a few places from the 5th placed finish from last season. They still have enough good players to finish in the top half of the table, but they over-achieved last year and a Cup run may be their best chance of getting back into Europe.



A Top Half Finish?

Fulham: Martin Jol had a decent first season in charge of Fulham and he would have continued to make a lot of friends with his brand of attacking football. He has done well so far in keeping hold of Clint Dempsey and Moussa Dembele, two players that have been linked with Liverpool and Manchester United respectively, and they pose plenty of problems for other sides in the League along with Bryan Ruiz and new signing Hugo Rodallega.

They couldn't conclude a deal for Pavel Pogrebnyak, who has since signed with Reading, but they remain a solid looking eleven that could match their finish of 9th from last season as long as they can keep the team together before the transfer window closes and steer clear of injuries.

Much will also depend on their form at Craven Cottage where they regularly give the 'bigger' sides plenty of problems, especially considering their 10 losses on their travels last season and Fulham have annually struggled for wins away from home.

Still, in this Premier League, I like Fulham's chances for a top half finish.


Stoke City: I have noticed that a lot of people are tipping Stoke City to be the surprise struggling team this season, with some going so far as predicting relegation for the Potters, but I am not of that belief.

They have some downward indicators flashing considering their poor end to last season, but I believe that was down to an extended run in all of the Cup competitions that caught up with a relatively thin squad.

Stoke remain a real tough prospect at the Brittania Stadium, where they lost just 4 games last season, and they also picked up 3 more wins away from home than they had in the previous season.

Tony Pulis has a solid XI that he sends out for matches and has goals in the team through Peter Crouch and Jon Walters and I think they could be pushing for a top half finish without the distractions of Europe this season.

He will hope Matthew Etherington can return to form after a disappointing 2011-12 season, but I think there is too much in this team and too many other sides that I don't rate as highly and so they may just do enough to push into their highest Premier League finish since returning to the top flight.


Queens Park Rangers: Queens Park Rangers may have survived by the skin of their teeth last season, but there were enough signs to think they are going to have a stress-free season this time around, while the added investment in the club can only push them up the table.

Mark Hughes is a good manager in my opinion and he guided QPR to safety with some big wins down the stretch, including against Arsenal, Liverpool and Tottenham Hotspur and the signings he has made look good on paper.

Rob Green will take over between the sticks, while Andy Johnson should help in getting some more goals along with Bobby Zamora and Djibril Cisse. Ji Sung Park and Fabio come in from Manchester United and there is a more 'Premier League feel' to the squad this season.

If QPR can take their form from the end of last season into this, with the added quality in the side, they may just be able to push for a top half finish, far removed from the relegation battle from last season.


Relative Safety

Aston Villa: Paul Lambert took over from Alex McLeish this Summer and he seems to have brought in a much more positive vibe to the club. The Aston Villa fans were never happy with the appointment of McLeish and he didn't endear himself to the faithful with his perceived negative tactics.

Lambert has already made it clear that he wants to get the best out of Charles N'Zogbia and Stephen Ireland, two attack minded players, and that has been received positively from the Villa fans. Darren Bent is back after missing much of last season with an injury and he should have more chances to score goals with support coming from the midfield.

Ron Vlaar has been signed to strengthen the defence, but I expect better from Villa mainly down to the good work Lambert did with his Norwich City team and I think he can get the best out of a squad that under-achieved last season when flirting with a relegation battle.

There is a potential for them to finish in the top half, but I expect them to be much improved from last season and should be far from any relegation issues.


Sunderland: Martin O'Neill inspired Sunderland to a comfortable League position after they had been tumbling down the table in the final days of the Steve Bruce era. While I don't think they will be involved in a relegation battle, they will do well to finish higher than last seasons 13th place after a lack of investment in the playing staff over the Summer.

Nicklas Bendtner was only on-loan last season and they haven't been able to get a permanent deal in place so the Black Cats look a little short up-front and may struggle to get goals on a consistent basis.

However, they look solid enough to ensure they are relatively safe in the League again this season without messing around with a relegation battle, although O'Neill is almost certainly looking to bring in a couple of new faces before the transfer window closes.


Norwich City: There is always a danger in how a club reacts when a new manager takes over from a successful one that has moved on, but I believe the appointment of Chris Hughton at Carrow Road will ensure they don't suffer a 'second season syndrome' in the Premier League and can extend their stay.

Hughton did really well at Birmingham City last season considering all the off-field turmoil that affected his time at St Andrews, and he also was doing a pretty good job at Newcastle United before he was sacked in favour of Alan Pardew.

That was a harsh decision and I think Hughton is capable of proving himself at this level- Norwich struggled at times with their defensive performances, but Hughton has proven himself as being a manager that focuses on keeping things tight at the back and that may make the difference in keeping them up this season.

Norwich have held on to Grant Holt and all of their key players from last season, while signings like Robert Snodgrass and Steven Whittaker can have a positive impact. They will probably drop a couple of positions from last season as teams will be a little more familiar with their personnel, but I think they will be solid enough under Hughton to avoid a relegation scrap.


Relegation Contenders

Reading: A great statistic I have read is only one of the last six Championship winners have gone back down immediately from the Premier League and I, like a lot of others, feel Reading are the best equipped of the new boys to avoid the drop in this season.

Brian McDermott is a decent manager and has shown in Cup competitions that he can mix it with the Premier League managers he is to face this season, while they look to have the most solid squad of the new boys and with one key component- they have the ability to get goals.

Pavel Pogrebnyak ws signed from under the noses of Fulham and he showed his keen eye for goal in six months at Craven Cottage last season, while Adam Le Fondre has scored plenty of goals in the lower Leagues and will look to continue that in the top flight.

Adrian Mariappa can prove why so many Premier League teams wanted to sign the centre half over the last 12 months and the Royals may even be able to surprise many by finishing higher up the table. I have listed them in my 'relegation candidates', but they may surpass these expectations with minimal fuss.


Wigan Athletic: The biggest piece of business Wigan Athletic may have done in the Summer is keeping Roberto Martinez as manager of the club after he was heavily linked with the vacant Liverpool job.

Martinez really impressed me with the foresight to go against the Premier League grain and set his team up in a 3-4-3 fluid system that got the best out of his personnel at the end of last season and he once again somehow guided them free of relegation certainty.

At this moment they have held on to Victor Moses, which could be key to their chances of survival, but there remains an issue with their strikers as I just don't feel comfortable in relying on Franco Di Santo to fire them to safety. Hugo Rodallega has moved on to Fulham so that is an area of concern, especially as Di Santo was top scorer with just 7 goals last season.

It is likely that Martinez continues with the 3-4-3 formation that has worked so well with the players he has and I think they are going to find at least three teams that are not as good and survive yet another season in the Premier League.

However, the lack of goals may mean another season fighting against relegation for much of it.


West Ham United: I haven't been overly impressed with the signings made at Upton Park so far this Summer, but I think Sam Allardyce has the experience to guide them to safety this season, although they could be sitting right above the drop zone come May.

Jussi Jaaskelainan is a solid Premier League goalkeeper and should form the basis of a much more reserved West Ham team- this season the fans are unlikely to badger Allardyce with 'boring' accusations as survival is the key.

The pressure will be on Modibo Maiga to provide the goals after he was signed for a little under 5 million pounds from Sochaux, especially now the bid to buy/loan Andy Carroll from Liverpool has fallen through. Carlton Cole and Ricardo Vaz Te will also be asked to chip in.

There is a solid looking feel to the West Ham team, although slightly underwhelming in terms of creativity and attacking options, but the experience of Allardyce may just be enough to see them maintain their position in the top flight.


West Brom: A lot of people look for a surprise relegation candidate at this time of the season and I think West Brom may just be that team. They have lost inspirational manager Roy Hodgson, a man who levelled the team out after they looked doomed to relegation around 18 months ago, and new manager Steve Clarke is taking on his first job as the Number 1 rather than the Number 2.

They haven't lost any key players from last season and have added Ben Foster in a permanent deal from Birmingham City, but this was a side that wasn't going anywhere when Hodgson took charge and they may not respond to the new voice in the dressing room.

If the Baggies get off to a bad start, it might make life difficult for Clarke and there have been previous instances when a first-time manager doesn't have the same respect from the players as an established one. If things start going downhill, West Brom may be dragged into a relegation scrap, one that may not end well.


Swansea: One team that may not survive 'second season syndrome' in the Premier League is Swansea who have lost an influential manager in Brendan Rodgers and replaced him with Michael Laudrup, a manager that has no previous experience in England.

Joe Allen has already left Swansea to join his former manager at Anfield, while both Gylfi Sigurdsson and Steven Caulker have left having spent time on-loan here last season.

Their style of football surprised many teams last season, but they are unlikely to change that under Laudrup and that could lead to their downfall with more teams being able to cater to what Swansea are going to do (unlike Norwich City who have brought in a manager who should be able to help with their defensive issues from last season and may have a different feel to the rest of the League compared with how they played in 2011-12).

Swansea just look a little weaker this season in defence and midfield and I am not sure they are going to have enough in them to find three teams to finish below them.

Southampton: Southampton replicated Norwich City by moving up from League One and the Championship in consecutive seasons to return to the top flight, but I fear that is where the similarity may end.

Even though I have the Saints at the bottom of my Premier League preview, I have been impressed with the job Nigel Adkins has done in his short time as the manager, while signings like Steven Davis, Nathanial Clyne and Jay Rodriguez look good on paper.

Rodriguez and Rickie Lambert will be looked at for the goals, but I have a feeling the latter may have a hard time now that teams have faced Grant Holt for a season and he is a very similar player in his style and ability.

If those two strikers hit it off, Southampton may just survive, but they have a horrible beginning to the season and that may put some negative energy into the team that may extend into the season.

There are enough teams with question marks to think that Southampton have a chance of survival in this Premier League, but I have to put someone in this position and I think there are rumours that the owners are looking for a way to remove Adkins in favour of a foreign manager and these can create issues that send a club the wrong way.


All of the above are just my thoughts on the teams competing in the Premier League this season and where they could potentially finish. As everyone will have seen while watching football, injuries can affect these final positions, but these are just my personal opinions and I am sure there will be at least three or four teams that surprise me massively.

Let's just hope for a fabulous season.

Thursday, 12 April 2012

A few thoughts from the last week in Football (April 6-11)

What is going on with the FA? I know I am not the only person that is left scratching his head on a regular basis with decisions that come out from the FA, be it to do with the scheduling of the FA Cup Semi Finals, or their fining managers for speaking their minds and fining them when they don't turn up, but the department that deals with sending off appeals need to have a real look at themselves.


I will be the first to admit that Manchester United got a soft penalty against QPR, but I could also understand why the referee gave it (I know Ashley Young was offside before he was 'fouled' but I will address both of those issues a bit later) and he was obligated to send off Shaun Derry in that situation.


However, the television cameras made it clear that Derry was more than harshly done by, yet the FA, in all their wisdom, decided not to overturn that, which led me to believe that they will back decisions on the field regardless of how obviously wrong they are.


To make the FA look even more foolish, they decided they couldn't lay out any more punishment to Mario Balotelli for a potential leg breaking challenge on Alex Song, because at least one of the four officials would have seen it- what are they thinking?


Basically as long as one of the officials sees an incident, no matter how WRONG they see it, the FA will back them to the hilt, but an obvious disgusting challenge is fine by them... The sooner someone who knows something about football gets in there and clears out the old boys club, the better.


What to do with 'divers'? I think there is a real problem in consistency as to what to do with players that have dived as some referees are happy to book them, while others don't even give them a telling off.


In the Liverpool-Aston Villa game, we saw Luis Suarez and Samir Carruthers booked for diving, yet there was little consistency in this game alone. The first thing to say is that the tackle on Carruthers was a penalty, yet he was booked... Earlier in the game, Suarez went down in the box theatrically and was not given a penalty nor booked, although he did get one later on.


It wasn't just in that game as we also saw Ashley Young going down easily at Old Trafford which resulted in QPR being reduced to ten men and losing the game 2-0.


It is hard for the referees when players are trying to 'cheat' or 'fool' them, but the FA must surely have the power to hand out retrospective punishments as a way of preventing this becoming too common. We have so many cameras at games that they could get a panel to go through the tapes on Monday morning and quickly hand out suspensions.


The first offence could lead to a one game suspension, the second a three game ban and so on and so on. I would use ex-professionals in the panel, not the men in suits I discussed in the first topic, and you see how quickly players will stop throwing themselves to the ground.


Once the suspensions build, the fines start coming from the club, and the managers will start demanding players stay on their feet... One way or another, there has to be some retrospective action to stop the pressure being on referees to make these decisions on one view, and also to stop this disease in the game.


Officials making some horrendous mistakes: We have seen some really crazy decisions over the last few days, notably in games involving Wigan against Chelsea and Manchester United.


You always hear the talk about bringing technology into the game when there are any incorrect decisions, but Roberto Martinez was spot on in saying that it has nothing to do with technology and everything to do with missing obvious decisions.


How Chelsea got away with not one, but two offside decisions in their win against Wigan was embarrassing on the linesman. It was no surprise to me when I heard tonight that that linesman has tendered his resignation and will not be officiating at this level again.


The first one was one of the worst decisions I have seen this season as Branislav Ivanovic was offside along with two other Chelsea players, with the linesman standing level with play and looking dead straight at them.


On Sunday we then saw another linesman miss Ashley Young being at least two yards offside that led to a Manchester United penalty and a sending off for QPR- that was a terrible decision as the linesman was again up with play and the angle of Young's run made it completely obvious that he was off.


And then we had the hat-trick of linesmen making mistakes in the Wigan-Manchester United game, although he was at least kind enough to make cock ups for both sides. Wigan should have had a one goal lead in the first half, but the linesman saw a barely minimal foul on David De Gea, but then he missed a clear as day penalty in the second half when one of the Wigan players clear handled the ball in the box.


Too many of those decisions should have been seen without the game needing to be stopped and checked on a television monitor, and it is time these people are held accountable for decisions that can make, or break, a team's season.


The relegation battle is becoming more and more fascinating: Even though Wigan were given the benefit of the doubt with some decisions in the second half of the game with United, they did deserve the three points that has taken them out of the relegation zone.


With QPR also winning on Wednesday evening, Wolves are definitely getting relegated and they could be gone by April 22nd when they entertain Manchester City at Molineux.


The wins for Wigan and QPR also means Blackburn Rovers 3 points from the safety positions and now have a worse goal difference than both the Latics and Rangers. That goal they conceded in the last minute to ten man Liverpool on Tuesday night could be a mortal wound from which they cannot recover, especially if they lose at Swansea on Saturday.


Bolton also were moved back into the relegation zone, although they do have one extra game to play and are only 2 points from safety. The Trotters play Aston Villa in that game in hand and Villa are only 6 points from safety so that game could be really important to them.


All of this means we could be in for a fascinating last month of the season.


Not the time to panic for Manchester United fans: Why do so many United fans predict so much doom and gloom so quickly? Yes, the team is not of vintage class, but they are still 5 points clear of Manchester City with 5 games left to play this season, and I would have happily have taken this position at this stage.


It was a disappointing result at Wigan, no doubt about that, but they were always going to suffer a bit of a let down in one of their games, and I made it clear in my preview of that game that Wigan were being under-estimated.


The title is still in United's hands as three wins at home from their final 5 games will really put the pressure on City to keep winning, and United would just need to avoid defeat at City or win at Sunderland to confirm the title. Let me put it this way, I would not want to swap positions with City right now!


The key for United is to win their next two games at Old Trafford and then head to the Etihad Stadium with at least a 5 point advantage and keeping the pressure on City.


And if you want some history to keep the faith, how about looking at the end of the 1995/96 season? United overtook a club that seemingly had the title within their grasp, but lost on April 13th at a club struggling to avoid relegation to leave themselves just 6 points clear of their rivals. They then won their final 3 League games to secure the title, while Newcastle faltered down the stretch.


Hopefully Newcastle United can keep the Champions League chase alive: I am purely talking from a selfish point of view, but it would be nice if Newcastle United can maintain their form and a push for a Champions League spot as a security blanket for United's title charge.


That is because Newcastle are entertaining City on the penultimate weekend of the season and I want that game to mean a lot for the home side.


This is a scenario that is not out of the reckoning with Newcastle now level with Tottenham Hotspur in terms of points.


I think Arsenal are going to be the third team into the Champions League behind the Manchester clubs, while both Spurs and Newcastle have a tough couple of games ahead of them and I think this race is going down to the wire.

Chelsea's draw at Fulham makes me think it is going to be tough for them to get above both Newcastle and Spurs, particularly considering they have games at Arsenal and Liverpool left this season as well as the Champions League Semi Finals.



The next couple of weeks before the end of the month is going to clear up the Champions League spots a little bit more, but it won't surprise me if it is decided on the final day of the season.

Monday, 2 April 2012

A few thoughts from the last week in Football (March 31-April 2)

Fans leaving games early: Now this is a little bit of rant, but why do fans leave early from football matches?


I don't even really understand it when your team is losing by a couple of goals as you should really support your team to the bitter end.


However, I really don't understand fans that leave with ten minutes left to play when their team is clearly the one going in search of goals- that was the case at Manchester City this weekend as the team trailed 1-3 to Sunderland.


Now surely those fans don't get home that much quicker than someone who stayed until the end that it makes it worth leaving early? And I really don't understand how foolish they must feel when they get to the car, turn on the radio and hear that the side have got back to 3-3.


I have noticed it a few times at Old Trafford in the past, most notably in the 4-3 win over Manchester City when a number of fans got up after Bellamy had made it 3-3 and decided to leave the ground. How many times do United need to score game changing late goals before people realise it is best to sit (or stand) and support the team until the final whistle before they decide not to leave early?


And like I say, I don't think they manage to get that much closer to home if they wait ten minutes and watch the end of the game... I just don't understand why people do it and I don't think I ever will if I am honest with you.




Players fighting with their team mates: What was in the water on Saturday afternoon that saw three different teams have players that got into their team mates faces while still on the pitch?

At the Etihad Stadium, we had Mario Balotelli and Alexander Korolov arguing over who should take a free-kick, having to be separated by Vincent Kompany, while manager Roberto Mancini looked on and just shook his head.


Mancini had already spoken about not trusting Balotelli and the team need to get their unity back as soon as possible if the are going to keep the title race going.


That wasn't the only issue this weekend, we also had Roger Johnson and Wayne Hennessy getting in each others faces at Molineux and Ben Foster and Peter Odemwingie at Goodison Park.


The Johnson-Hennessy issue just shows that the Wolves' squad harmony is fractured and they will do well to survive in the Premier League now (more on that below), while the Odemwingie-Foster coming together seemed to come out of nowhere really.


You barely see events like this, in public, in the course of a season, so for it to happen three times on the same day was bizarre to say the least.




The relegation battle just got a lost tastier: Who would have thunk that Wigan would beat Stoke City, Bolton would win at Wolves and QPR would beat Arsenal to really tighten up the relegation dogfight.


I think the Wolves loss to Bolton at home has all but consigned them life in the Championship next season as they have a really poor goal difference too so are essentially 7 points from safety with just 7 games left to play this season.


I am going to make my prediction below as to how I think each team will do in their remaining games, and I will include Aston Villa in that, and see which three teams I think will go down;


Wolves: Stoke (a) 0 points, Arsenal (h) 0 points, Sunderland (a) 1 point, Manchester City (h) 0 points, Swansea (a) 0 points, Everton (h) 3 points and Wigan (a) 0 points; Total Points, 26 points


Wigan Athletic: Chelsea (a) 0 points, Manchester United (h) 0 points, Arsenal (a) 0 points, Fulham (a) 0 points, Newcastle United (h) 1 point, Blackburn Rovers (a) 1 point and Wolves (h) 3 points; Total Points, 33 points


QPR: Manchester United (a) 0 points, Swansea (h) 1 point, West Brom (a) 1 point, Tottenham Hotspur (h) 0 points, Chelsea (a) 0 points, Stoke City (h) 3 points and Manchester City (a) 0 points; Total Points, 33 points


Blackburn Rovers: West Brom (a) 1 point, Liverpool (h) 3 points, Swansea (a) 0 points, Norwich City (h) 3 points, Tottenham Hotspur (a) 0 points, Wigan Athletic (h) 1 point and Chelsea (a) 0 points; Total Points, 36 points


Bolton Wanderers: Fulham (h) 3 points, Newcastle United (a) 0 points, Tottenham Hotspur (h) 0 points, Swansea (h) 1 point, Aston Villa (a) 1 point, Sunderland (a) 1 point, West Brom (h) 3 points and Stoke City (a) 0 points; Total Points, 38 points


Aston Villa: Liverpool (a) 0 points, Stoke City (h) 1 point, Manchester United (a) 0 points, Sunderland (h) 1 point, Bolton Wanderers (h) 1 point, West Brom (a) 0 points, Tottenham Hotspur (h) 0 points and Norwich City (a) 0 points; Total Points, 36 points




From the remaining games to be played this season, I just think the three relegated teams will come from the bottom four clubs unless the pick up some surprise results if they are escape relegation. I think Wolves are gone because they seem to have lost their belief and they are conceding far too many goals. They couldn't afford to lose to Bolton at home over the weekend (I even thought a draw was not going to be good enough) and they look doomed with some really tough games in front of them.


Both QPR and Wigan Athletic have given themselves opportunities, but they will have to find a big win somewhere. I think Wigan have done really well to get to this position, but their next three games are brutal and they will need a surprise result from one of those to give themselves an opportunity to survive, while they could get something from a Fulham side that may have nothing significant to play for (although I would predict a home win in that one right now).


QPR have at least three games where I think they can get more than I have given them, against Swansea, at West Brom and against Spurs at home, and that is where their survival could be built.


Whatever happens, it is going to be fascinating viewing.




The Premier League title race: Monday night could be the absolute pivotal moment of the season as Manchester United opened up a 5 point lead over Manchester City with just 21 points left to play for.


It was a big result at Blackburn Rovers, the game that looked the most difficult on paper from the ones left before the trip the Etihad Stadium for the Manchester Derby, but United did enough to secure the points. Now they have the opportunity to move 8 points clear in the table before City play again at Arsenal.


The pressure is really beginning to tell on City and the players are in-fighting and disharmony is reigning supreme and it does look like United's title to lose now.


Also, anyone know whether Roberto Mancini will be paying out to the journalists he offered a bet that United would draw at Ewood Park tonight?




Champions League positions: Arsenal looked like they had picked up the momentum for a top 4 finish at just the right time, but the defeat at QPR on Saturday will have been a huge shock to the system.


It is tight in the race for the top 4, with both Arsenal and Tottenham Hotspur on 58 points and being tracked by Chelsea and Newcastle United on 53 points. I did start thinking that Arsenal were going to finish in these positions, but their home games against Manchester City and an improving Chelsea side will be key to their success.


Tottenham will have felt better by winning on Sunday and I think they may just have turned a corner after a terrible set of results, and that could see Harry Redknapp succeed in his aims to finish in the Champions League berths.


We have two games coming up in a stretch of 5 days for each of these sides, and results in those games will make things a little clearer in what could be a tight race to the end of the season for these 4 sides.




Things are going to get a little darker at Upton Park: Sam Allardyce and the West Ham fans have not been seeing eye to eye in recent weeks, and the 2-4 home loss to Reading on Saturday may just be the final straw if promotion is not achieved this season.


There are only 6 games left this season and they find themselves 4 points behind Reading in the final automatic promotion spot with too many draws ruining their chances. The fans are unhappy that the team seem to play a more direct approach under Allardyce and the lack of results is increasing the tension.


Easter weekend is always a big time for the different Leagues in England and this year will prove no different in the Championship. All of the clubs will be playing twice in the space of 4 days as the race for promotion to the Premier League hots up.


West Ham need to stick together if they are to achieve their aims, but things are fast loosening at the seams as their season unravels, and it could already be too late for them if the top 2 don't falter now.

Wednesday, 28 March 2012

A few thoughts from the last week in Football (March 17-28)

I have been extremely busy at work during the last month and that has meant I have not been able to do many recaps due to time constraints and making sure all the picks were out in time.

It has been a busy time in the world of football as we get to 'squeaky bum time' meaning games are coming thick and fast, but I have found a slight window to put down a few thoughts on some of the issues that have arisen in the last couple of weeks.



The reaction to the Fabrice Muamba incident: This is something that united the football world as everyone hoped the best for the young midfielder, but more recently it has become a source of contention- not what happened to the player, but the reaction of people throughout the country.


The first thing we have to point out is the advances of social networking in the last ten years which has allowed people to put to their everyday thoughts down instantly. Therefore, any news can quickly expand and we can also see uprisings down to planned meetings on such sites, for example what happened in Egypt.


My position on Muamba is that when I initially heard what had happened, I was shocked... Not because of his age, but because it is a shock when a professional sports athlete would suddenly just collapse. It was the exact same reaction I had when I heard Daniel Jarque of Espanyol died after a training session in August 2009 and when Antonio Puerta of Sevilla died on the pitch in August 2007.


The issue I had was the number of one minute applauses held up and down the country at football matches in the days following Muamba's collapse... I could understand this a LOT more if he had passed away, but I found it a little distasteful considering he was still fighting for his life. The last time I checked, an applause was unlikely to be helpful and it just seemed really out of place because...  well because Muamba was still alive.


I could understand his former clubs at Birmingham and Arsenal holding some sort of event to let Muamba's family know he wasn't forgotten as there were players that likely had played with him, and I could understand Spurs fans wanting to do something as they were sadly witnesses to the event, while Bolton was a given.


BUT I didn't understand the need to hold an applause at Chelsea v Leicester the day after Muamba collapsed, or at Blackburn v Sunderland on Tuesday evening.


It just seems to me that people want to show their grief at something like this as a barometer as to how decent a human being they are- if you didn't shed a tear or applaud or offer your thoughts at every moment in the following days while Muamba was fighting for his life and you were disregarded as being heartless and out of order.


The last couple of days we have seen people attack the Red Issue cover, which took a satirical dig at the people who have been OTT with their response to this whole issue- the ones that seem to revel in showing how upset they are over events they have no control of.


The people who seem to have the loudest voices offering their disgust at the cover also, unsurprisingly, seem to be the people that wanted to put their grief on their sleeves in the most prominent manner.


I just don't remember the reaction of these same people to Antonio Puerta when he actually DIED on the pitch as they have had for Fabrice Muamba who is, gladly, making a recovery from his unfortunate events.


The question I have left is in what situations will a one minute applause NOT be applicable from now on? A dangerous precedent has been set in my opinion, and one that has nothing to do with people's actual feelings on the matter, making much more reasonable requests for a minute's applause/silence just part of a national grieving day.




FA Cup Semi Final Dilemma: We are coming up to the 23rd anniversary since the Hillsborough Disaster and the FA have been left in a tough spot as to what they can do with the FA Cup Semi Finals that are due to take place that day.


Liverpool, understandably, have always requested not to play on April 15th and that is the date for the second Semi Final this season. The problem for the FA is that the other Semi Final involves Chelsea, a team that are likely to be playing a Champions League Semi Final on Tuesday following this weekend.


Now what to do? The first thing is they could talk to Liverpool and ask them their feelings of playing on April 15th considering they are meeting Everton, a local rival but one that was also affected by the events in 1989. It is no exaggeration to say families can be split down the middle in that City with their support for either Everton or Liverpool, so it could be the ultimate way to pay respects to those that lost their lives 23 years ago as the two famous clubs come together.


However, that is a question for Liverpool and they have every right to say they do not wish to play on that date regardless of the opposition.


Therefore, the FA have only two real options in my opinion for the Semi Finals. Both involves keeping the Sunday clear for Chelsea as well as they deserve to be given the best opportunity to win the Champions League and need the rest between this game and the Semi Final of the other competition.


The first is simply to move the Liverpool-Everton game to take place at the Millennium Stadium in Cardiff... This stadium is closer to Liverpool than Wembley and this game could take place as the early game on Saturday 14th April, with Chelsea meeting Spurs at Wembley in the evening.


However, I think the FA are adamant in playing both Semi Finals at Wembley and the only reasonable idea seems to be Chelsea-Spurs meeting on Friday evening and leaving the Liverpool-Everton game on the Saturday. Some will argue that it is impossible for the police to ensure crowd safety for the Chelsea game if everyone has been on the drink during the day, but there have been night games between the teams in the past and the police have had night games at Wembley in the past.


It seems the most logical way to avoid any issues for Chelsea and Liverpool as both clubs will be keeping a close eye on this game. The London Semi Final makes sense to be played on a Friday night as most fans will be close enough to attend and it keeps the April 15th free for both Chelsea and Liverpool for their respective reasons.




Patrick Vieira is clearly still in touch with Garry Cook: That is the only logical reason I have for the comments coming out of the 'Manchester City legend'  (he was there for 18 months at the end of his career) regarding Manchester United.


Last week he described the current League leaders as 'desperate' and was promptly put in his place by Sir Alex Ferguson later that week.


He clearly hasn't learned that he was looking like a tool (much like Garry Cook didn't recognise that until it was too late) and today has made comments about how Manchester City 'deserve' to win the League and Manchester United get all the decisions at Old Trafford.


Vieira states City deserve to win the League because they have played the best football, but clearly didn't receive the news that it was announced last week that 16 of the 20 top flight managers had nominated Tottenham as playing the best football this season.


I'm guessing the former Arsenal midfielder also missed the tape of Newcastle United being awarded a ridiculous penalty at Old Trafford earlier this season that cost Manchester United two points.


Granted it was a penalty on Monday night for the challenge on Fulham's Danny Murphy, but that has evened up the bad decision earlier this season, while Vieira also tried to hide the 'bitterness' that was brewing by suggesting all the big clubs get these decisions and that is what City are striving for.


I just think Vieira has not forgiven United were thwarting his dreams on more than one occasion during his time at Highbury, but surely someone needs to have a word that the team need to keep the focus on the field during this City run that has seen them drop to second in the League table rather than giving Sir Alex Ferguson more 'ammunition', which he already has 'plenty of'.




The relegation picture got a little murkier: Am I the only one that used to love it when the press would release their predictions as to who will win the League and who will go down based on how they thought the final fixtures would go?


I am going to release something like that on the blog in the coming days, before the weekend games, but what I do know is that last weeks results from the Premier League have made it a little tighter at the bottom of the League with all 5 teams still involved.


The biggest loser was Wolves who find themselves 4 points behind Bolton in the final position of safety (5 if you include their horrible goal difference), but a win for Wigan at Liverpool is a huge boost for their chances while Bolton beating Blackburn has dragged the latter back towards the trapdoor.


Momentum is a big thing at this stage and I think Bolton are leading that front, while Wigan and QPR have an awful set of fixtures to come. I would say Wolves will be all but down if they fail to beat Bolton this weekend at home because they have no momentum and nothing positive happening for them right now.


Blackburn had been playing better of late but the loss last week would have hurt them and it is getting tougher down the bottom. Aston Villa may want to be a little careful in thinking they are fine as there are only 8 points between them and QPR in 18th and they too have an awful set of fixtures to come and looked a little lost at times in their loss to Arsenal.




What is it with those Manchester City fans crying at Swansea and Stoke City?: I have a couple of theories: Either they had heard such a funny joke that it had brought tears to their eyes, or they have been following City for around two seasons.


I mean seriously, crying because the team is second in the table and still in control of their own destiny? (Win every game left and City are Champions as it stands).


This is a team that has gone 34 years without a trophy before winning the FA Cup last season, a team that was playing in the League One Play Offs just a few short years ago and one that has had more bad times than good for a generation.


Crying? I mean come on... It has been rightly ridiculed in a number of quarters, so much so that one of the so called 'fans' came on a radio show to claim he was just 'tired and frustrated'. Those 'fans' need to get a grip- it hasn't all be Sheikhs and financial fortunes at City in recent years and they haven't lost anything just yet.

Saturday, 13 August 2011

English Premier League Ante-Post selections

The Premier League is back today and it could not have come soon enough as far as I am concerned. It has been a miserable few months trying to actually pass the time on a Saturday- did anyone else realise how bad TV is on a Saturday afternoon? Well the channel flicking is over, Soccer Saturday is back and live football from the 'best League in the World'.

I thought I would have a quick look through the ante-post selections:


Winner
After the Community Shield last week, Manchester United hardened as Premier League title winners. I expect the boys should be good enough to get to Number 20 this season, but there is no value taking the prices on offer just yet... Why you ask? Take a quick look at United's start to the season and I would be very surprised if they are not a bigger price come the end of October.


With tough trips to Bolton, Stoke, Liverpool and Everton before that date, as well as entertaining Tottenham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Manchester City, it is conceivable that United will not be top of the table come November 1st and could be at a much better price than the 2.63 I have seen floating about.


I expect Manchester City to be United's closest challengers this season but I am not convinced with Roberto Mancini as manager. I find the Italian overly cautious which leads to City dropping points against teams they shouldn't and Mancini is also far too negative when playing the better teams.


However, they have a much more negotiable start to the season yet I have this feeling Mancini will aid them to lose too many points over the course of the next 9 months.


I can see Chelsea making a decent start to the season and would not be surprised if they lead the way as November begins- while the team is ageing, I think there are plenty of big characters in the dressing room that would have been hurt by last season and I also think Fernando Torres will actually return to form.


At the prices on offer, I think the value is on City to win the title, but I won't be backing them with concerns over Mancini and I will wait for the first 3 months and re-check prices before I dive into this market.




Top 4
I fully expect the 3 title contenders to finish in the top 4 this season, but I have real concerns for Arsenal. The loss of Cesc Fabregas will hurt this side, but the additional loss of Samir Nasri could be tragic for their chances of even finishing in the top 4.

The sides most likely to capitalise on any lapse from the Gunners are Liverpool and Tottenham.

Liverpool have been surprisingly active in the transfer market since the end of last season, but they still need to strengthen a defence that looks a little short of cover. I am not that convinced with the signings of Charlie Adam and Jordan Henderson but I do think Stewart Downing could flourish as he has Andy Carroll to aim for with his crosses.

The lack of European commitment will really help Liverpool too, allowing Kenny Dalglish to keep his side fresh all season, and they have a real chance if Carroll and Luis Suarez can gel.

While Liverpool's transfer activity has been a little surprising, Tottenham's lack of activity must be a real concern for the fans. White Hart Lane got a real taste for the Champions League last season, but I still think they need a top quality striker to finish off the chances created by a very good midfield. Gomes is a bit of a concern in goal, but it is the lack of a top quality forward that will prevent this team moving forward as far as I am concerned.

Spurs have a tough start to the new season and could be playing catch up early on, but I would have favoured them to move up a place from last season if they had brought in a forward- there are still 2 weeks of the transfer window left so it is possible they do that before August 31st, but I think the play has to be the Scousers getting in at odds against.


Relegation
Much like last season, I expect there to be a real scrap at the bottom of the Premier League this season. There are too many teams that don't seem to have much about them that could struggle this year but the value play may be on a team suffering a 'second season syndrome'... How about someone like Newcastle United?

Newcastle have been in turmoil all Summer and have lost some key players like Kevin Nolan and Jose Enrique while Joey Barton has one foot out of the door. The signing of Gabriel Oberton does not inspire me in the slightest and if the Magpies make a bad start, they could find themselves in deep trouble come Christmas.

It is no surprise to see Norwich City and Swansea City as short favourites to return to the Championship, but QPR could find themselves in more trouble after the rich owners decided they will NOT splash the cash in the transfer window. There is obviously some concerns with their relationship with Neil Warnock, and it just seems not everyone is pulling in the same direction at Loftus Road.

The fans have been alienated with a huge hike in ticket prices and there just does not seem to be the positive vibes in this part of West London that should be associated with a first top flight appearance since 1996.

QPR look a decent price to return to the Championship, especially if they do not take advantage of what looks a soft start to the season.

I had a look at a couple of other options, notably Wigan and Blackburn- the former will be a lot shorter if they fail to make hay in their opening 3 games against the promoted sides, while the latter struggled in the back half of last season and do not look that much stronger this year.


Top Scorer
I think it shows something about the lack of top quality strikers in the Premier League when you look through a list for top scorers and only have a couple of real options.

I think Javier Hernandez is far too short considering this is only his 2nd season in England, and Wayne Rooney is the better choice. That leads me to my first pick from this section and that is Rooney to be Manchester United's top scorer at a standout 2.50 at Blue Square. I expect Rooney to play the majority of games, while he is also the penalty taker at Old Trafford.

Rooney will be getting additional service from the wings through Ashley Young and I can see him returning to the form he displayed 2 seasons ago.

But for the overall top scorer, I think an interest in Darren Bent each way looks the way to go- Bent is a proven scorer at this level and has been nominated as the penalty taker at Villa Park.

While he has lost the service provided by Ashley Young and Stewart Downing, the arrival of Charles N'Zogbia should help him and we have seen from his time at Sunderland that Bent makes the most of any chances that do come his way.

I am not sure how Villa are going to do this season, but I can see the majority of their goals coming through Bent and he looks the best price to at least reach the top 4 places come May.


MY PICKS: Liverpool to finish in the top 4 @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Newcastle United to be relegated @ 6.5 (1 Unit)
QPR to be relegated @ 2.63 Paddy Power (3 Units)
Wayne Rooney top scorer for Manchester United @ 2.50 Blue Square (2 Units)
Darren Bent top Premier League goalscorer @ 13.00 Ladbrokes (2 Units e/w) Top 4 places pays e/w

Friday, 5 August 2011

The English Championship Ante-Post Picks

It's almost time for the English domestic season to get up and running so I thought I would put down my picks for the upcoming season with yet another preview that I am sure many would have already read.

I will break down the different markets that I am looking to back and hopefully we will have something to celebrate in May 2012.


Push for the Title
The market is surprisingly not very tight at the top considering the nature of this Division over the last few seasons and there are two clear favourites in the 'Winner' market as the layers believe it will be either West Ham United or Leicester City that will take the crown.


I don't really disagree and it is the latter of those two teams that I feel has the best opportunity to win the Division with the classy nature of the signings they have made. Sven Goran Eriksson has been backed in the market by the owners of the club and you can only be impressed with the signings of the likes of Matt Mills, Kasper Schmeichel, John Paintsil, Paul Konchesky and David Nugent.


The loan capture of Michael Johnson from Manchester City could be the key to their success this season as the midfielder is a very effective operator. Leicester will look to get the best out of Johnson who has suffered with long term injury issues, but if they can get him out there for the majority of games, I can see him having a big season.


Sam Allardyce has made some good signings at Upton Park, particularly getting Kevin Nolan in from Newcastle, but there is still an element of doubt over which players will still be at the club after August 31st and so I do feel Leicester are the better option here.




Promotion
With the Championship being the way it is, there are plenty of prices that look reasonable when it comes to picking sides that may break into the Promised Land in May.

The top two teams I mentioned in the above section are understandably looking short, but that means there is a bit of value to be found in other places.

Last season we saw Norwich win successive promotions from League One through to the Premier League and it may be the turn of Southampton to follow suit this season.

The Saints are another side that have been backed by owners who believe the Premier League is their destiny and they have a very good manager in Nigel Adkins that would have experienced the pressures of the Championship in his time as manager of Scunthorpe.

They have not been as active in the transfer market as I thought they might be this Summer, but that means they have a settled squad and also have a very strong record at St Mary's over the last season. That could earn them a surprise place in the Premier League next May.


Relegation
According to the layers, Barnsley and Doncaster Rovers are the big favourites to go down this season and while I cannot argue with the former too much, I really feel the latter can survive under the guidance of Sean O'Driscoll.


That means there are going to be a couple of other places available that teams will want to avoid and I cannot help thinking that Peterborough United could be occupying one of them at the end of the season.


I have a slight soft spot for Peterborough as they are managed by Darren Ferguson and I can imagine Dad will be helping him out with potential loan deals as he did when the younger Ferguson was at Preston North End (they already have signed 3 Manchester United youngsters on loan), but I still feel that may not be enough.


Posh were known for their goal scoring exploits last season and they were a popular pick for the 'both teams to score market' last season, a sign that may lead to their downfall this season.


The loss of Craig Mackail-Smith will hurt the side, but it is the sheer amount of goals they concede that could see them struggling to survive in this tough Division. I think their chances of surviving have been overestimated slightly by the layers so I will back them to go back down to League One.




MY PICKS: Leicester City to win the Championship @ 6.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Southampton to win Promotion @ 6.50 BetFred (1 Unit)
Peterborough United to be Relegated @ 3.50 William Hill (2 Units)

Saturday, 26 March 2011

Update to 'Who is getting relegated from the Premier League?'

I was thinking back to my predictions yesterday, and it dawned on me that I had missed a vital piece of the relegation puzzle... Newcastle United.

The Magpies play 4 teams who are below them in the League, and I was not too favourable of their chances to get the necessary points to survive. Take a look why:

Newcastle United, 36 Points
Wolves (H)- 1 Point, see Wolves

Aston Villa (A)- 0 Points, see Aston Villa

Manchester United (H)- the game takes place 3 days after the Cup Semi Final between United and Manchester City, so there is a chance here for Newcastle to cause a surprise. I just think United will be more focused, regardless of the City result, and pick up a big win at a venue they enjoy, 0 Points

Blackpool (A)- 0 Points, see Blackpool

Liverpool (A)- Liverpool will still be fighting for a top 5 berth, and I can see Andy Carroll haunting his former club, o Points

Birmingham (H)- 1 Point, see Birmingham

Chelsea (A)- the Blues should be too good and may still be in the title race if they have got a result at Old Trafford the week before, 0 Points

West Brom (H)- 1 Point, see West Brom

Newcastle 39 Points


Now that would mean the Newcastle-West Brom game on the final day could decide who goes down. Newcastle's goal difference is vastly superior at the moment so would survive on goal difference if my predictions are correct, BUT you can back Newcastle at 15.0 to go down right at this moment.

I can assure you that that price will be far shorter if it does indeed come to a last day shootout between Newcastle and West Brom and so surely a unit on the Magpies going down is not a bad shout.

They may beat Wolves next week at home and all of this will be a moot point, but they are struggling for form, just got thumped 4-0 at Stoke, are having problems in defence and scoring goals, and could be the side dragged down into a relegation battle from what looks like a position of safety.

Newcastle to be relegated @ 15.0 (1 Unit)

Friday, 25 March 2011

Who is getting relegated from the Premier League?

I love this time of the season, because it is the perfect time to try and figure out who is going down from the Premier League. It also allows those with ante-post punts to perhaps back a couple of different horses, or to protect those they have already backed for the dreaded drop.

You will also see many newspaper columns being filled in with predictions as to how the both ends of the table will shape up. I decided to do the same as I really enjoyed reading such columns.

I will begin with the bottom of the table and then focus on the top end next week. Predictions are based on what I THINK will happen and I will be start with bottom placed Wigan and work my way up the table. The points underlined are what the team is currently on, and the italics at the bottom is what I feel they will end up with:

Wigan Athletic, 30 Points
Tottenham (H)- fancy Wigan may grab a draw against a team that could be more interested in the game at Real Madrid than one in the North West of England, 1 Point

Chelsea (A)- lost here 9-1 last season, Chelsea playing a lot better now than 3 months ago... The only thing Wigan can hold onto is the fact this game comes between the big Champions League QF tie Chelsea have with Manchester United so maybe they can... No, 0 Points

Blackpool (A)- this is a big game for both teams, and I can see the term 'relegation six pointer' being used all through the week leading to this game. Blackpool have not been playing that well, and both play attractive football. Could end up sharing the points that helps nobody, 1 Point

Sunderland (A)- the Black Cats are pretty much safe already and have recently come off the rails a little. Wigan may just feel they can pull an upset here and pick up the full complement of points, I just think they may have to settle for 1 Point

Everton (H)- Everton really will have the Summer holidays to look forward to by this time and Wigan may just catch them at the right time. While David Moyes will expect his side to finish as high as possible, I feel Wigan may nick the 3 Points

Aston Villa (A)- Villa are struggling no ends and this is another one of those 'six pointers'. Houllier is not the man the fans want in charge and everything could be pear-shaped by this point at Villa Park... Wigan won here last season in a surprise, it may be less of one if they pick up 1 Point

West Ham (H)- West Ham should still be in the mixer at this point, but they are playing much better at the moment. I feel their quality will show up here and Wigan will be left hoping for something special on the last day at Stoke, 0 Points

Stoke City (A)- Stoke City could have taken part in a FA Cup Final by this point and will be safe for another season. They are still tough to beat at the Brittania, so I fancy Wigan can get 1 Point and not quite enough for all 3.

Wigan 38 Points

Birmingham City, 31 Points
Bolton (H)- Bolton beat Birmingham in the FA Cup here with a last minute goal, but I think the international break would have done the home team the world of good and they can nick 1 point

Blackburn (A)- there are so many teams at the bottom of the League that are in danger that all of these 'six pointers' are around. Blackburn have been in horrible form, so much so that Rafa Benitez is favourite to take the Manager's job from Steve Kean. However, that hasn't happened yet and right now I would think the sides share the points, 1 Point

Sunderland (H)- as mentioned, Sunderland have been in a really bad run of form, and I think the players may just be looking at the Summer holidays. That will be enough to give the home team 3 Points

Chelsea (A)- cant see beyond the home win, 0 Points

Liverpool (A)- Kenny Dalglish expects his side to finish as high up the table as possible and still have real intentions of catching Tottenham in 5th for the Europa League place, 0 Points

Wolves (H)- a local derby will see a cracking atmosphere at St Andrews. Wolves look like a really solid team at the moment and will do enough to share the points, 1 Point

Newcastle (A)- Birmingham's strength is relying on a strong defence and I imagine they can pose plenty of difficulties for a Newcastle team struggling for goals. They could possibly get all the points, but may settle for 1 Point

Fulham (H)- the Cottagers could be safe by this point, and Alex McCleish will fire up his troops for one big effort here, 3 Points

Tottenham (A)- I just feel Spurs' fate will be sealed by this point, and they might not be at the top of their game. Expect Birmingham to make life difficult and snare 1 Point

Birmingham 42 Points

Wolves, 32 Points
Newcastle (A)- Wolves have been in solid enough form, and as long as the international break has not taken away too much momentum, they can pick up 1 Point

Everton (H)- the Goodison Park club are the kind of team that will cause Wolves problems as they are physically capable of standing up to the home teams pressure, and I think Wolves may struggle to get more than 0 Points

Fulham (H)- Fulham do not have the best record away from home, and Wolves will feel they can pick up a vital 3 points here. It could be tight, but I would agree with them, 3 Points

Stoke (A)- the home team may just be looking to secure their own status in the top flight and could be boosted by a potential Cup Final to look forward to by this point, 0 Points

Birmingham (A)- 1 Point, see Birmingham

West Brom (H)- another local derby a week after Birmingham. It should be tough, but I feel Wolves show too much here and get the big win, 3 Points

Sunderland (A)- with 2 games left, I fancy Sunderland will not be focused here, not like Wolves, and the away side get another big 3 Points

Blackburn (H)- the way things are going for Blackburn, this might be irrelevant to their future at this point and relegation may already be a reality. Expect Wolves to send their fans off happy, 3 Points

Wolves 46 Points

West Ham United, 32 Points
Manchester United (H)- United do not have the best away record, West Ham are playing a lot better now than earlier in the season. United also have defensive problems that could be a little clearer by April 2nd, but both will get 1 Point

Bolton (A)- maybe some of the Bolton players will be looking forward to the Cup Semi Final a week later and so do not want to risk injury. That gives West Ham enough to grab 1 Point

Aston Villa (H)- Villa can take advantage of some of West Ham's vulnerabilities in defence, but the Hammers will also fancy their chances against a Villa team that is imploding. West Ham to grab 3 Points in a high scoring game

Chelsea (A)- Chelsea may lose focus with a potential Champions League Semi Final in midweek, but they still have designs on the Premier League title, 0 Points

Manchester City (A)- City also will have a great deal to play for at this point with the top 4 in mind, 0 Points

Blackburn (H)- after a couple of games without points, West Ham will rise to the pressure and secure a big win over a struggling rival, 3 Points

Wigan (A)- 1 Point, see Wigan

Sunderland (H)- after Sunderland allow Wolves to grab a win at the Stadium of Light, the players have all but taken their holidays and fall to another defeat, 3 Points

West Ham 44 Points

West Brom, 33 Points
Liverpool (H)- three weeks ago I would have fancied Roy Hodgson's men to get something from this game, but think they will struggle to deal with Luiz Suarez and Andy Carroll and get nothing in a close game, 0 Points

Sunderland (A)- expect Hodgson to get his side to try and make it difficult for Sunderland, but a lack of clean sheets hurts West Brom and they only get 1 Point

Chelsea (H)- the Baggies will be hoping the 2nd leg of Chelsea's Champions League Quarter Final has sapped their energies, but might not be enough, 0 Points

Tottenham (A)- the lack of clean sheets again hurt West Brom, 0 Points

Aston Villa (H)- Villa definitely have the better players on paper, but West Brom are working more as a team. Could be another high scoring game with the points shared, 1 Point

Wolves (A)- 0 Points, see Wolves

Everton (H)- Everton will have nothing to play for here, and the Baggies motivation gets them fired up enough to grab a vital 3 Points

Newcastle (A)- West Brom will need a win here to have any chance of staying up. They give it their all, but its not enough, 1 Point

West Brom 39 Points

Blackpool, 33 Points
Fulham (A)- Blackpool play their normal method of attacking at all costs, but their defence lets them down and they fail to get the 3 points, 1 Point

Arsenal (H)- Ian Holloway's side are tailor-made for Arsenal and an entertaining game finished with praise, not points, for the home team, 0 Points

Wigan (H)- 1 Point, see Wigan

Newcastle (H)- Blackpool give up the usual chances, but the toothless Magpies cannot take full advantage while Charlie Adam inspires the Seasiders to 3 Points

Stoke (H)- Stoke should be safe by now, but their physical game causes problems. Some could perhaps be looking to avoid injuries for the Cup Final, Blackpool do enough to take advantage, 3 Points

Tottenham (A)- Blackpool were fortunate to meet Spurs on an off day when winning 3-1 at Bloomfield Road, not again, 0 Points

Bolton (H)- Bolton will be safe, but this is still a North West Derby. Both teams to share the spoils, 1 Point

Manchester United (A)- United might still need the points to win the title, should be too good, 0 Points

Blackpool 42 Points

Aston Villa, 33 Points
Everton (A)- Everton are playing much better at the moment although will miss Mikel Arteta and Louis Saha. Villa do enough to grab 1 Point

Newcastle (H)- Villa will be hoping for the support of the home crowd here, and can get a big 3 Points

West Ham (A)- 0 Points, see West Ham

Stoke (H)- Stoke will have just played an FA Cup Semi Final the week before, so this is the perfect time for Villa to get them at home, 3 Points

West Brom (A)- 1 Point, see West Brom

Wigan (H)- 1 Point, see Wigan

Arsenal (A)- the Gunners should still be in contention for the title, nothing here for Villa, 0 Points

Liverpool (H)- the Reds could be in line to steal a top 5 finish here, while Houllier's love for his former club could see the fans getting upset with him again. Villa may already be safe by now, 0 Points

Aston Villa 42 Points

Blackburn Rovers, 33 Points
Arsenal (A)- Arsenal should be ready to go with the return of Cesc Fabregas, and Blackburn are in a bad state at the moment, 0 Points

Birmingham (H)- 1 Point, see Birmingham

Everton (A)- Blackburn have been having a hard time away from home anyway, Everton still have David Moyes inspiring them to a close win, 0 Points

Manchester City (H)- City will have come off the FA Cup Semi Final with United, and that might give Blackburn a chance to pick up 1 Point

Bolton (H)- this is a North West rivalry and you can expect the Bolton fans to fire their team up to leave Blackburn in deep trouble. However, the home side should do enough to grab 1 Point

West Ham (A)- 0 Points, see West Ham

Manchester United (H)- United will still be fighting for the Premier League title, and I think they can find a way to win this game, 0 Points

Wolves (A)- 0 Points, see Wolves

Blackburn Rovers 36 Points


I think Fulham and above will be safe from relegation, and the three relegated teams will be Blackburn Rovers, West Brom and Wigan .

A lot of things can change, for example the sacking of Steve Kean at Blackburn (if it happens) may allow for a honeymoon period that keeps Blackburn up. However, at this moment I dont like their chances.

Wigan are plenty short to go down at the bookmakers, but West Brom at 2.88 must be worth 2 Units.

Even more appealing is the current 3.2 on offer for Blackburn to go down and I will have 2 Units on that too.

It might also be prudent to pick Blackburn to finish bottom of the pile at prices of 11.0- they have a tough set of fixtures and do not look like they are going anywhere at the moment. The only issue I have with the Blackburn pick is that they will sack Steve Kean and receive a boost from a new manager, as can happen.

West Brom to go down @ 2.88 (2 Units)
Blackburn to go down @ 3.2 (2 Units)
Blackburn to finish bottom @ 11.0 (1 Unit)