Victor Hanescu - 2.5 games v Rui Machado: Rui Machado will have the crowd behind him in this one and must be feeling a little better about his game having come through three rounds of qualifiers to reach this First Round match. He hasn't played a lot of tennis over the last few months due to injury and that has seen him slip outside of the top 300 in the World Rankings.
It isn't the easiest of matches to get going in the main draw as Victor Hanescu has always been very comfortable on the clay courts and is coming off a Quarter Final appearance last week in Bucharest.
The majority of Hanescu's main court wins over the last few seasons have come on the slower clay courts and I think he will be a little too battle hardened for Machado. There just isn't any substitute for playing competitive matches and Hanescu also possesses a bigger serve which should help find a way to hold on to serve a little more easier at times.
They have met twice before on the clay with both matches being won by Hanescu and I think he completes the hat-trick with a 6-3, 6-4 win in this First Round match.
Horacio Zeballos - 2.5 games v Gastao Elias: Gastao Elias is a young Portuguese player who has experienced a lot of success on the clay courts in his career, but almost exclusively at the Challenger level and it will be interesting to see how he copes with a Main Tour draw in this match. He was invited to play in the First Round here last season, but ended up being beaten in three sets against one of his compatriots and this is likely to be a tougher test.
However, Horacio Zeballos has spent a lot of time losing matches since surprising Rafael Nadal in the Final at Vina Del Mar earlier this season when the Spaniard was making his return to the Tour after the injury suffered at Wimbledon.
It does seem that Zeballos has perhaps struggled to cope with having a target on his back after that win and he is just 3-7 since. That has to be a concern for me, although I don't think Elias is perhaps at the level to take advantage.
They have met three times before in their careers so both should be familiar with one another and although all of those matches have needed three sets to separate them and it is Zeballos that leads 2-1, I think the Argentinian can perhaps do enough to cover this spread in this one.
Julia Goerges - 3.5 games v Monica Puig: Julia Goerges was very unfortunate to lose against Petra Kvitova last week in Stuttgart, but she showed enough form to think she is capable of seeing of Monica Puig in the First Round here.
It was the clay courts where Goerges really began making a name for herself on the WTA Tour a couple of seasons ago and she is clearly very comfortable playing on this surface. While that is the case, it hasn't been a good start to the 2013 season in general for the German and she has suffered a couple of surprising losses.
However, her match up against a player that has not had a lot of experience at the highest level of the Women's game looks like a good one for Goerges to get started here in Portugal and I would expect her to come through some breaks of serve to record a 7-5, 6-3 win.
MY PICKS: Victor Hanescu - 2.5 Games @ 1.80 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Horacio Zeballos - 2.5 Games @ 1.95 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Julia Goerges - 3.5 Games @ 1.92 Bet 365 (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.34 Units (4 Units Staked, - 8.5% Yield)
Showing posts with label Portugal Open Picks. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Portugal Open Picks. Show all posts
Tuesday, 30 April 2013
Monday, 29 April 2013
Tennis Picks 2013 (April 29th)
I have made a couple of outright picks from the ATP tournaments in Portugal and Germany this week which can be found here
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 games v Varvara Lepchenko: I think it would be very foolish to rule out Varvara Lepchenko on the clay courts considering she has beaten the likes of Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci on this surface this season. However, I do think Svetlana Kuznetsova is still more happy on the slower terrain and I do believe she can come through this tough First Round match.
My one real concern is that Kuznetsova hasn't played any tennis since Miami last month, although she has a real chance of being one of the seeds at the French Open with a couple of big runs in the next two weeks and that should be big enough motivation to see her through this match.
The left-handed Lepchenko could also cause some early problems and the Russian has also been complaining about the wind in Portugal. As long as these issues don't cause too many mental breakdowns, I think Kuznetsova comes through the match.
Daniel Brands - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: The battle of two home town players should be a decent one, but I would expect Daniel Brands to be a little too strong for Tobias Kamke.
Brands has the bigger serve and any time you can get a few cheaper points on serve can only be a benefit, while Kamke can be very erratic at times and go through phases in a match where he makes a number of unforced errors.
It is those unforced errors that will give Brands a chance on his opponent's serve and while both players have enjoyed some success on the clay courts off the Main Tour, it is Brands that seems to have been able to transfer that form to the highest level of competition.
I'd expect Brands to find a way to grab a break advantage in both sets here.
MY PICKS: Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniel Brands - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 games v Varvara Lepchenko: I think it would be very foolish to rule out Varvara Lepchenko on the clay courts considering she has beaten the likes of Sara Errani and Roberta Vinci on this surface this season. However, I do think Svetlana Kuznetsova is still more happy on the slower terrain and I do believe she can come through this tough First Round match.
My one real concern is that Kuznetsova hasn't played any tennis since Miami last month, although she has a real chance of being one of the seeds at the French Open with a couple of big runs in the next two weeks and that should be big enough motivation to see her through this match.
The left-handed Lepchenko could also cause some early problems and the Russian has also been complaining about the wind in Portugal. As long as these issues don't cause too many mental breakdowns, I think Kuznetsova comes through the match.
Daniel Brands - 3.5 games v Tobias Kamke: The battle of two home town players should be a decent one, but I would expect Daniel Brands to be a little too strong for Tobias Kamke.
Brands has the bigger serve and any time you can get a few cheaper points on serve can only be a benefit, while Kamke can be very erratic at times and go through phases in a match where he makes a number of unforced errors.
It is those unforced errors that will give Brands a chance on his opponent's serve and while both players have enjoyed some success on the clay courts off the Main Tour, it is Brands that seems to have been able to transfer that form to the highest level of competition.
I'd expect Brands to find a way to grab a break advantage in both sets here.
MY PICKS: Svetlana Kuznetsova - 2.5 Games @ 1.83 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Daniel Brands - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Pinnacle (2 Units)
Tennis Outright Picks 2013 (April 29-May 5)
We are now less than a month away from the French Open so this week is the last one where the main players on both Tours decide to take off. After this, both Tours head to Madrid and Rome for the big tournaments at Masters and Premier level and then there will be just the eight days until the French Open will begin.
This week we have a joint tournament taking place in Portugal and another ATP event in Munich.
ATP Portugal Open
The Number 1 seed in at this tournament is David Ferrer and it is hard to look beyond the World Number 4 in the field that has come together for the Portugal Open this season. He was surprisingly beaten in his first match at the Barcelona Open last week against Dmitry Tursunov, but David Ferrer is certainly very capable of running some form together as proven by his title win in Buenos Aires earlier this season.
The draw seems to be kind to Ferrer here as he receives a bye in the First Round thanks to being one of the top four seeds here in Portugal and I don't think he will be too worried by any of the names in the top half.
The biggest danger may just be Tommy Robredo in the top half of the draw, but Ferrer has been too good for his veteran compatriot over the last twelve months and I would back the World Number 4 to be too battle hardened and consistent for Robredo.
I am not surprised that Stanislas Wawrinka is considered the second favourite, but Ferrer has a solid head to head record against him and I would back the Spaniard in that one. Other names in the bottom half like Fabio Fognini and Horacio Zeballos have had success on the clay courts, but neither would feel they have a favourable match up with Ferrer the Number 1 seed has to be the pick at odds against in this field.
ATP Munich
One of the more open tournaments in recent times takes place in Munich and it says a lot that the field is priced at 5.50 or better. There are plenty of big names in the draw and I have a feeling that backing a home favourite to come through the draw may pay dividends this week.
Philipp Kohlschreiber has won this event twice already in his career, including last season, and he has reached at least the Quarter Final in five of his last six appearances here. The German is in the better half of the draw here and receives a bye in the First Round which may give him enough of an edge to come through the top half.
His main rivals are Mikhail Youzhny and Janko Tipsarevic, but there are some doubts about the chances of both of those players and Kohlschreiber looks the most likely to take advantage of those doubts.
The bottom half of the draw looks a lot more loaded with the likes of Ernests Gulbis, Tommy Haas, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Marin Cilic all involved in the section. Cilic has enjoyed a lot of success in the tournament without quite winning it, but this is a really tough half of the draw and I think taking Kohlschreiber each way is the best way to be involved in this tournament.
ATP Munich
One of the more open tournaments in recent times takes place in Munich and it says a lot that the field is priced at 5.50 or better. There are plenty of big names in the draw and I have a feeling that backing a home favourite to come through the draw may pay dividends this week.
Philipp Kohlschreiber has won this event twice already in his career, including last season, and he has reached at least the Quarter Final in five of his last six appearances here. The German is in the better half of the draw here and receives a bye in the First Round which may give him enough of an edge to come through the top half.
His main rivals are Mikhail Youzhny and Janko Tipsarevic, but there are some doubts about the chances of both of those players and Kohlschreiber looks the most likely to take advantage of those doubts.
The bottom half of the draw looks a lot more loaded with the likes of Ernests Gulbis, Tommy Haas, Alexandr Dolgopolov and Marin Cilic all involved in the section. Cilic has enjoyed a lot of success in the tournament without quite winning it, but this is a really tough half of the draw and I think taking Kohlschreiber each way is the best way to be involved in this tournament.
MY PICKS: David Ferrer @ 2.25 William Hill (2 Units)
Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 8.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
Daily Picks: 10-5, + 8.18 Units (28 Units Staked, + 29.21% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 41.28 Units (517 Units Staked, + 7.98% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
Philipp Kohlschreiber @ 8.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit E/W)
Daily Picks: 10-5, + 8.18 Units (28 Units Staked, + 29.21% Yield)
Outright Picks: 0-1, - 2 Units (2 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Season 2013: + 41.28 Units (517 Units Staked, + 7.98% Yield)
Season 2012: + 49.21 Units (855 Units Staked, + 5.76% Yield)
Season 2011: + 82.02 Units
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