NFL Week 6 Picks 2024 (Thursday 10th October-Monday 14th October)

You wait for several months for the season to begin and when you blink, we are already fast approaching the middle of the regular season.

It is the time of the year when teams and fans do begin to worry a little more about the record as the Divisions begin to take shape and so it was perhaps not a massive surprise that the New York Jets made a significant change after dropping to 2-3 with a Week 5 loss in London.

Head Coach Robert Saleh being let go was still a surprise when the news broke as the Jets owner Woody Johnson had made an in-season Head Coaching change for the first time since he owned the team. There have been rumours that Saleh and star Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers have not been on the same page, although denied by Rodgers, but even then the Head Coach must have been as surprised as the fans when the decision was made.

This does feel harsh on Robert Saleh considering it is the New York Jets Offensive unit that has really let the team down, which is not the focus for this Head Coach whose Defensive strengths have shown up on that side of the ball.

Ultimately the Jets felt something had to change, which was also mentioned by Aaron Rodgers when he spoke on Wednesday, and the Bye Week is still some way down the line so the feeling around the team was they could not wait.

In the cold light of day, the Jets are still firmly in the mix in the weak AFC East and this Head Coaching change may change the narrative around this team and get them moving in the right direction. Aaron Rodgers will have to play better than he has, while New York may end up going 'all in' and make some active moves ahead of the trade deadline to strengthen the team.

Woody Johnson has also reached out to Hassan Reddick to return, which would be huge on the Defensive side of the ball and Week 6 is a big chance for the Jets to turn things back around and get going with plenty of eyes on this team already and even more so after a big Coaching decision was made.

There are issues to resolve for the New York Jets, but there will be a few other teams feeling the pressure after rough starts to the season.

Bengals fans would have certainly been expecting Cincinnati to be back challenging with the elite of the AFC, but they snatched defeat from the jaws of victory in Week 5 to drop to 1-4 and the margin for error has really narrowed. The team are still competing in a very tough looking Division, but the schedule may just offer Cincinnati some relief, although they cannot afford to keep finding a way to lose games.

One or two will be concerned with the San Francisco 49ers at 2-3, but injuries will clear up and the NFC West still looks their Division to lose- if they can win on Thursday Night Football in Week 6, that will certainly be the narrative and the 49ers have an experience that should keep them competitive.

Underperforming teams are one story, but there are also those overachieving early in the season and the NFC North having all four teams above 0.500 through five weeks is impressive.

The Minnesota Vikings are the last remaining unbeaten team in the Conference and, along with the Kansas City Chiefs, one of two teams that remain unbeaten in the NFL, which really has come as a surprise with Sam Darnold at Quarter Back, and early credit should also be given to Sean Payton for bringing the Denver Broncos up to 3-2 in a season in which they are starting a rookie Quarter Back.

Things can change very quickly in the NFL as injuries pile up and there are a number of key players that will be missing time after picking up issues over the last couple of weeks. These can have a huge impact on the overall outlook for any team, as I would know from what has happened to the Miami Dolphins in 2024, and so you do have to take things week by week, while also trying not to overreact to results from the previous Week.

Avoiding overreactions is also important when it comes to the NFL Picks- it has been a good start to the season, but staying focused and keeping things ticking over is the plan and hopefully the winning weeks can be strung together and the big losing runs can be avoided.

There will not be a selection from Thursday Night Football in Week 6- it looks a competitive game with both Seattle and San Francisco being beaten in home upsets in Week 5 and the line looks a tough one from which to select a side.

The 49ers have dominated this Divisional rival of late, but Seattle are now under a new Coaching Staff and the injuries on the Defensive side of the ball for the road team gives the Seahawks a chance to turn things around. However, San Francisco should also be confident in what they can do with the ball in their hands and perhaps the best approach would be to back the teams to cover the total points line set, although it won't be a selection made.

Picks from Sunday and Monday will be added to this thread over the next few days.

Chicago Bears vs Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: The second of the three London games takes place in Week 6 of the NFL season and both the Chicago Bears (3-2) and Jacksonville Jaguars (1-4) may feel they have something to build upon. The Bears have won two in a row to move back above 0.500 in the loaded NFC North, while the Jacksonville Jaguars snapped their losing run ahead of two games to be played in the Capital of the United Kingdom.

Out of the two teams, there is little doubt that there is far less room for error for the Jaguars who had also come into the season with bigger expectations than the Chicago Bears and their rookie Quarter Back.

An experience edge is with the Jaguars who have regularly played in London, but they have arrived a little later than the Chicago Bears knowing they are here for consecutive games. It should not be a factor, but you just never know, while the Bears will feel they have the strongest unit of the four that play the majority of the game and that is the Defense which has powered Chicago.

However, it is a Defensive unit that have suffered a couple of key injuries in the Secondary and that may leave Chicago a bit more vulnerable in their last game before the Bye Week. Jaquan Brisker was already ruled out, but the Bears suffered a big injury on Thursday when Tyrique Stevenson hurt his calf and he is almost certainly going to miss out.

The problem is that the Bears will not have Stevenson's backup available and so a third string Defensive Back will take to the field, which is obviously going to be an area that the Jacksonville Jaguars look to exploit. You might not be completely convinced about Trevor Lawrence being back just because he exploited an injury hit Colts team in Week 5, but the fact he can exploit those holes is important with this being a big problem for the Chicago Bears.

Jacksonville's Offensive Line have shown they can establish the run when the team are not too far behind on the scoreboard and this has perhaps been the Bears one real weakness early in the season. It could mean another big game for Tank Bigsby who along with Travis Etienne offers the Jaguars the chance to get the ground game going and then open things up for Trevor Lawrence to ramp up the pass.

If they are behind the chains, Jacksonville will be aware that the Chicago pass rush may reduce the time for Lawrence to attack the obvious holes without Brisker and Stevenson in the lineup, but the Jaguars should have considerable success if they can establish the run.

More pressure will be on that Chicago pass rush without some key Defensive Backs, but there will also be some pressure on Caleb Williams to continue the strong form he has shown over the last two weeks. The win over Carolina Panthers was Williams at his best at Quarter Back and he could pick up from where he left off considering the problems that the Jaguars have had defending the pass.

Caleb Williams has shown improvement and the schedule has helped with the teams he has faced, but he would love to see the Chicago Bears have more success running the ball. After early struggles, D'Andre Swift has been a little better in the last couple of weeks, but big holes have not really been created by this Chicago Offensive Line and it could be an issue again this week.

For all of their issues, the Jaguars have largely played the run pretty well and they will certainly be looking to force the rookie to beat them. Even the improved play has not overly concerned the Jaguars and they will feel the pass rush can just rattle Williams if he needs time to allow routes to develop in front of him.

However, in place of a running game, the Bears have used the screen to keep the team moving and that may be the game plan here before attacking a Secondary that has given up some big yardage. Caleb Williams will be well aware of that and he does have some Receiving options in DJ Moore and Keenan Allen that can make significant plays for the team.

The Bears look the right favourite, but it is no surprise to see the line get a little tigher after some of the injuries picked up in the Secondary.

Jacksonville's experience playing in London and the performance in Week 5 will definitely lift the team, but the Chicago pass rush may yet have the impact on the game to turn things in the favour of the Bears.

The Jaguars have won three of their last four games in London and will be strong favourites to beat the New England Patriots at Wembley Stadium next week. However, there are still some questions for this team to answer and the Defensive issues may just give the Chicago Bears the edge to come away with a victory before heading home for the Bye Week.

Games in London have not been the most high-scoring in recent years, but there could be some big plays made in this one with issues in the Secondary for both teams. Ultimately it may come down to a big Sack or a turnover to make the difference and the feeling is that the Chicago Bears pass rush makes the deciding play in this one.

Washington Commanders @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: They are non-Conference opponents so a natural rivalry has not really developed between the Washington Commanders (4-1) and Baltimore Ravens (3-2) even with the short distance between the two NFL teams.

Successful runs will build the fanbase, which both teams are competing to bring in, but overall this cannot be considered a rivalry.

Things may change if both end up meeting in the Super Bowl after strong starts, but even that feels unlikely just yet and despite the very good start made by the Washington Commanders. They were blown out in Week 1 at the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but four straight wins makes the Commanders the surprising leaders of the NFC East through five weeks of the season.

However, it will be noted that the teams beaten have a combined 6-14 record, even if the Washington Commanders will point out that they have already beaten two AFC North teams. Unfortunately those teams are both struggling and now they have to face the Baltimore Ravens, a team that has won three in a row since opening with a 0-2 record and who look to be one of the leading contenders to represent their Conference in the Super Bowl.

There is the obvious letdown spot for the Ravens having somehow won in Cinncinati in Overtime last week, but they do look a team that could match up pretty well with the Commanders. It also should be noted that Lamar Jackson has been a dominant Quarter Back when it comes to these non-Conference games and that includes beating the Dallas Cowboys on the road this season.

A bit of fortune helped Baltimore win last weekend, but fans will say they were due considering they should have perhaps found a way to beat Kansas City and Las Vegas earlier in the season.

Lamar Jackson is the leader of the team, but he will be extremely grateful to the team for signing Derrick Henry and you have to like the Baltimore Ravens ability to put up some big yards on the ground again. The Offensive Line have really enjoyed blocking for Jackson and Henry and they have punished teams on the ground, which really does not bode well for this Commanders Defensive Line allowing 5.1 yards per carry through the course of the season.

Building a big lead has forced teams to move away from the run, but this Ravens team is unlikely to lose focus on the game plan and there is every reason to believe Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry keep the team moving on the ground. This should negate some of the pressure that the Commanders pass rush have brought onto the field, while Jackson will be able to make some big passing gains if Washington do try and play closer to the Line of Scrimmage.

The expectation is that this Ravens Offensive unit will have a strong day, while the Defense has seen what a dual-threat Quarter Back brings to the table every day in practice. Playing against Jackson will certainly give them an idea of what to expect from rookie Jayden Daniels, as impressive as he has been in his first five games leading the Washington Commanders.

Jayden Daniels is a strong threat when it comes to tucking the ball in and making plays with his legs and the Commanders have a couple of solid Running Back options in Brian Robinson Jr and Austin Ekeler. Those change of pace Backs can cause problems, although it will be interesting to see how the Commanders look to attack this Baltimore Defensive Line that has clamped down on the run.

Instead the weakness has been in the Secondary, as Joe Burrow highlighted last week, but this could be a tough match up for Jayden Daniels. He has shown his passing ability against weaker Secondaries like the Bengals and Cardinals, but it was tougher work for him against the Cleveland Browns and the challenge this week will be dealing with the Baltimore pass rush.

When given time, Jayden Daniels has shown he can make those big plays with his arm, but that is likely to be more difficult if the Commanders are not able to rely on the run. The Offensive Line has been better at run blocking than pass protection and you have to think this Baltimore team will be well aware of how to deal with a Quarter Back that has had massive comparisons to Lamar Jackson early in his NFL career.

With a spread like this, the backdoor cover is absolutely going to be a concern.

We have seen the Ravens blow big leads against the Raiders and Cowboys, while Joe Burrow was lighting them up last week, but a rookie Quarter Back may just have a few more difficulties if Washington are playing from behind the chains. The Ravens should be able to do much of what they want Offensively and there will be enough respect for the early Washington successes to keep them focused before playing on Monday Night Football in Week 7.

The spread will likely come down to a late drive, but that is where the Ravens pass rush can make their presence known and help Baltimore to a fourth win in a row, as well as a fourth cover.

Cleveland Browns @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The shock news out of New York will have reverberated around the NFL and there are plenty of other Head Coaches that could be concerned about their futures after Robert Saleh was dismissed.

Most teams will tend to wait until the end of the season and that is the feeling for Nick Sirianni as the Head Coach of the Philadelphia Eagles (2-2). An early Bye Week has perhaps given the team time to get healthier after the blowout loss in Week 4 and also means the Eagles are unlikely to want to make any big decisions until the season is perhaps getting away from them.

Despite taking the Eagles to the Super Bowl, Sirianni is sitting on a hot seat even with the team very much in touch with those around them in the NFC East. There are big expectations from the fanbase though and the Philadelphia Super Bowl window for this current team looks to be closing rapidly, which could lead to big changes all around.

For now they are sticking with the Head Coach as the Eagles come out of the Bye Week and Nick Sirianni has tended to extract a big performance from his team with time to prepare. The likes of Lane Johnson, DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown all missed out in the defeat to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but all have made good use of the Bye Week and the Eagles will be much stronger Offensively.

It also helps that they are facing a Cleveland Browns (1-4) team that are already under the cosh and with a Head Coach who may be even closer to the exit door than his peer across the field. Kevin Stefanski will be trying to focus on the job at hand, but his future looks tied in with Deshaun Watson having refused to make a change at Quarter Back and that looks to be sinking the Head Coach.

Deshaun Watson is playing like a busted flush and there is every chance that people will look back at the trade that Cleveland made to bring him in as the worst in the history of the NFL. The Week 10 Bye could be the moment that massive changes are made by the Browns, by when it could be too late to salvage the 2024 season, and the fans will likely be increasingly frustrated having seen Joe Flacco get off his couch to produce much better than anything seen from Watson.

Instead of keeping Flacco around, the Browns went all in with their Quarter Back and it has been a disaster with the team struggling on this side of the ball. The only win this season has been against the Jacksonville Jaguars, while Cleveland have been downed by opponents like the New York Giants and Las Vegas Raiders, neither of which have been in dominant form.

The only sympathy you can have for Deshaun Watson is that he has been operating behind a terrible Offensive Line which has really missed having both Tackles at full health. Jedrick Wills and Jack Conklin both suffered big injuries last season and they have clearly not been at full strength, which has kept Watson running for his life behind Center and ultimately taking far too many Sacks.

Some of those have been the fault of the Quarter Back too for holding onto the ball for too long, but it simply has not been good enough.

The Browns may choose to lean on the run to try and put themselves in a much better spot, but the continued absence of Nick Chubb has really been felt too. We have seen teams being able to pound the Eagles on the ground, although it is going to be tougher to do that if Philadelphia choose to dare Watson to beat them through the air and it could be another tough afternoon for Cleveland on this side of the ball.

If not for the Defensive unit, Cleveland might have been on the wrong end of a lot of blowouts this season, rather than just the two. Both have been against teams from the NFC East though and that does not bode well for the Browns who have a number of players trying to play through the pain on this side of the ball.

Philadelphia looking to be close to full strength on the Offensive side of the ball does not bode well for the Browns and especially as they have struggled to stop the run. Saquon Barkley should be able to punish Cleveland when being handed the ball and that can only open up the playbook for Jalen Hurts, who still has to answer some questions about being the long-term solution at Quarter Back for the Eagles.

His Offensive Line will help Barkley produce some big gains on the ground and it is key for Jalen Hurts to have both DeVonta Smith and AJ Brown back. Lane Johnson should help offer better protection to the Quarter Back when he does drop back to throw the ball, while being in third and manageable just makes everything that much more comfortable.

Jalen Hurts has had inconsistent performances at Quarter Back and he really needs to clean up the turnovers, but this is a good opportunity for him. As good as the Browns Secondary have been, they have not really created the turnovers and it will be that much harder to make plays if Hurts is playing in a cleaner pocket and not having to push the ball from third and long spots.

A Divisional game is next on deck for the Eagles, which is a potential distraction, but coming out of the Bye Week should help, especially with Nick Sirianni's record. Over the coming weeks, the Eagles have a schedule that looks incredibly kind on paper and this is a chance to get some momentum going.

There is no doubt this is a big spread, one that offers the backdoor cover even if Watson is replaced by Jameis Winston in the game. However, the Browns have struggled Offensively to have a lot of faith in them and a healthier Philadelphia team could follow Dallas and Washington in crushing this AFC North opponent.

Arizona Cardinals @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The record could have been a lot worse and had the Arizona Cardinals (2-3) under real pressure early in the season if they had been beaten by San Francisco in Week 5. They rallied late and snapped a two game losing run to remain competitive in the early standings of the NFC West, but the Cardinals have to back it up.

This week they are travelling to the Green Bay Packers (3-2) who moved back above 0.500 after seeing off another team from the NFC West, the Los Angeles Rams.

Jordan Love is back for the Packers, although the Quarter Back is hoping to pick up his own level having had some inconsistent moments since his return. That is perhaps to be expected having returned from injury quicker than anticipated, while Love has shown plenty of character by having the Packers get very close to rallying to beat the Minnesota Vikings before the win over the Los Angeles Rams to stay in touch with the early NFC North leaders.

After that victory, the Green Bay Packers could really put some momentum behind themselves before the next big Divisional game against the Detroit Lions in early November.

There is so much to like about this young Green Bay team and they will feel confident they can score most times when they have the ball in their hands. The Offensive Line looks healthy and that has seen them open up plenty of holes up front for Josh Jacobs to show why he was signed to replace Aaron Jones as the main Running Back.

It is going to be tough for the Cardinals Defensive Line to slow down the Packers on the ground as it is, but even more so if both Romeo Doubs and Christian Watson are back on the field. Romeo Doubs was suspended last week for 'activities detrimental to the team', but he has been welcomed back, while Watson looks to have avoided a serious injury and could be used.

Respecting the passing game means Arizona cannot sell out to stop the run so the Green Bay Offensive Line should win out up front and that should put Jordan Love in a strong position to start quicker than he has in each of the last two games. The Quarter Back is not expected to be harassed when he does drop back to throw and that should give Jordan Love the opportunity to have another big passing game.

One concern has to be the Interceptions that Jordan Love has thrown, especially against this ball-hawking Secondary, but being in third and manageable should help and Green Bay should be able to follow the likes of Buffalo and Washington in putting up strong Offensive numbers against the Cardinals.

Running the ball to set up the pass will be the plan as far as the Arizona Cardinals are concerned too, but it may not be as easy for them to do that. Kyle Murray can move the ball with his legs from the Quarter Back position and James Connor continues to impress, but the Packers Defensive Line have just knuckled down and began to have some success when it comes to stopping the run.

Kyren Williams had a decent game against the Packers last week, but the recent performances have been solid enough and that will be important considering some of the erratic play from Kyler Murray when he has to throw.

Any time the Packers can put the Cardinals in obvious passing situations, the Green Bay pass rush is likely to have a big impact on the game and rushing Kyler Murray can lead to positive things happening. Turning the ball over is something this Green Bay Secondary will pride itself on, and Xavier McKinney has had an Interception in each of the first five games, which is a joint franchise record set back in 1943.

There is a bend, don't break mentality to this Packers passing Defense, which should give Kyler Murray and the Cardinals a chance to have some successes. There are some solid Receiving options for Murray to target, but the feeling is that the Green Bay Packers will make a couple of big plays on this side of the ball, which gives them control of the Week 6 contest.

Back in 2018, Arizona upset Green Bay here at Lambeau Field as an almost two Touchdown underdog, but the Packers look to have the Offensive firepower to get the better of the Cardinals by around a Touchdown score this time around.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New Orleans Saints Pick: This is one of those selections where you may end up disliking it within the opening couple of drives.

If it was a non-Conference game for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-2), the likelihood is that other selections would have appealed more, but this is a Divisional game after a mini-Bye and playing after a loss, which should all add up to a motivated and focused effort.

The Overtime loss on Thursday Night Football has prevented the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from taking an early grip of the NFC South. It is a game where they could have built a bigger first half lead, which would have made it very tough for the Atlanta Falcons to fight back, but that is in the past and the Buccaneers have to only be looking ahead.

In Week 6 they travel to the New Orleans Saints (2-3) who have lost three in a row after blitzing through the first two weeks and looking extremely strong on both sides of the ball. Since then, it has been much more of a struggle in all aspects of their Football and Dennis Allen is back on the hot seat as Head Coach.

The heat will only strengthen if the Saints cannot turn things around, but they are going to have to try and do that without Derek Carr at Quarter Back.

It means Spencer Rattler has to step up, but this is a tough spot for the rookie who will have been expecting to play behind the veteran and learn the nuances of the NFL from the sidelines. Some will suggest he is getting the opportunity to play the right Defensive unit, but Todd Bowles will have something to say about that and the Saints have not exactly been motoring even with Carr behind Center.

New Orleans scored 47 points in Week 1 and 44 points in Week 2, but have combined for just 48 points in their last three games. The Offensive Line has been banged up and that has made it much more difficult for the Saints to establish the run and there is no guarantee they can take advantage of some of the issues the Tampa Bay Defensive Line have had when it comes to clamping down on the run.

The rookie Quarter Back may be able to make a few more plays with his legs compared with Derek Carr, but Spencer Rattler would really prefer if the situations are in third and manageable, rather than what could be third and long spots. Todd Bowles will likely give Spencer Rattler some looks to confuse the young Quarter Back, while the Buccaneers are able to generate plenty of pass rush pressure.

As Kirk Cousins showed, it has been possible to have success throwing into this Buccaneers Secondary, but the New Orleans Receivers have been banged up and playing on a short week is far from ideal.

Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Offensive unit have been a little inconsistent this season- there have been some solid performances, but also some underwhelming ones. However, this Saints Defensive unit has not looked the same over the last three weeks and there is every chance we are going to see a solid performance from the Quarter Back and the plethora of playmakers the Buccaneers have on this side of the ball.

The expectation is that the Buccaneers can pick up from where they left off against the Atlanta Falcons and that is by establishing the run effectively. Both Rachaad White and Bucky Irving picked up some big gains on the ground in the loss to the Falcons, and they should be able to punish the Saints on the ground after New Orleans just allowed Kareem Hunt to put up 102 yards against them.

This should benefit Baker Mayfield in two ways- it should negate the New Orleans pass rush, which would be a problem if Tampa Bay were playing behind the chains, while opening up the Saints Secondary that has struggled during this losing run. With Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Mayfield has the Receivers that can put up some big numbers in this game if they choose to air it out and you have to like the chances of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win this important Divisional game on the road.

Nothing will come easy with the rivalry in mind, while the spread is above the key number 3 and that can be problematic.

However, the Buccaneers have the time to prepare and facing a New Orleans team playing with a rookie Quarter Back on a short week looks an ideal situation as Tampa Bay look to bounce back from a Week 6 loss. Hurricane Milton did cause a lot of problems for people back home, but Tampa Bay's players have been able to bring their families with them on what has been a longer trip than usual for a road game and that should also mean the full focus is to give their home town fans something to feel good about.

Tampa Bay have won by double digits in three of their last four visits to New Orleans and should have enough to avoid any backdoor cover in this one.

Buffalo Bills @ New York Jets Pick: The decision to fire Robert Saleh as Head Coach might have been a surprise, but it is one that will be judged in January and the final analysis will depend on whether or not the New York Jets (2-3) made the Playoffs. They are far from out of contention even after losing in London in Week 5, but there is a belief that changes were needed to just freshen things up.

It all feels harsh on Saleh considering the Defensive unit have continued to be the best of the three separate units that make up a Football team, but the Jets have made the decision and now have to live with it.

A change at Offensive Co-Ordinator has also been made, but most fans will know that Quarter Back Aaron Rodgers has to be a lot better if the Jets are going to have the kind of season that would have been expected after the veteran returned from missing all but four snaps of the 2023 season.

First up under the new regime is a Monday Night Football game against the Buffalo Bills (3-2) who have lost two in a row- the winner in this one will be leading the AFC East through six weeks so there is plenty on the line for both the Bills and Jets.

Josh Allen has played well enough, but he has lost a key Receiver in Stefon Diggs and someone has yet to step up and fill that hole on the Offense. Poor game management cost the Bills in their loss to the Houston Texans, but Allen has been cleared to play having looked to have suffered a concussion and he is going to be key for the Bills.

However, this is a tough test for Josh Allen and the entire Offensive unit considering how well the New York Jets have played against them. The Jets have won their last two home games against Buffalo, while the current team has the kind of Defensive unit that will make it tough all around on the visiting team.

The Bills will not have an easy day establishing the run, while the Jets have produced plenty of big plays in the passing game to believe they can limit what Buffalo can achieve Offensively. Containing them to less than 22 points will be very possible and it is then up to the Jets to show that they can rally even in the face of controversy.

Aaron Rodgers is the first to admit he needs to play better at Quarter Back, but the Offensive Line will also have something to prove having struggled to help the team establish the run. This is a good chance to turn things around considering the Bills Defensive Line struggles against the run, while the likes of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen should also prove to be a good safety blanket for their Quarter Back.

Much like Josh Allen, Aaron Rodgers has not exactly gotten on the same page with some of his Receivers, but there was a real effort to get Garrett Wilson into things last week and they may be able to build on that. Running the ball should open up the playbook for Aaron Rodgers, and negate some of the pressure that has been all around him, and that should see him expose the Buffalo Secondary that was in the midst of allowing Nico Collins to have a huge game before a hamstring injury knocked him out of the game.

This should give the Jets a chance to spring the upset, while there has been a recent trend of in-season firings leading to a positive reaction from the players as they look to prove it was the Coaching, not their ability, that has led to a difficult decision being made.

For all of the early successes Buffalo have had, the last two weeks have been a reminder that they are still a work in progress without Stefon Diggs. The Defensive unit have not been as strong as they would have liked either and the Jets could easily win this one outright for a third straight home win over this Divisional rival.

MY PICKS: Chicago Bears - 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Baltimore Ravens - 6.5 Points @ 1.90 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Philadelphia Eagles - 8.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

New York Jets + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)

Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)

Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)

Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

NFL Week 6 Picks 2019 (October 10-14)

I will get onto the NFL Week 6 Picks below, but first off I will write out a few thoughts about the NFL coming out of Week 5.

At this stage of the season teams are beginning to separate themselves out into genuine Super Bowl contenders, PlayOff hopefuls, middling teams and those who will be chasing the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

It is still very early for teams to panic about their standings, but we are very much into the Bye Weeks now and that means the importance of games ramp up. This week we also get to see the second of four games to be played in London, one I will be attending on Sunday afternoon, and there are some good looking games to come throughout the Week 6 schedule including the best Monday Night Football game since Week 1 of the season.

A few thoughts that sprung to mind first:


Baker Mayfield IS over-rated: when the Cleveland Browns selected Baker Mayfield as the Number 1 Overall Pick in the 2018 NFL Draft, I did think they had reached massively for a player that had shown some quality in College, but also a tendency to rub people up the wrong way.

Now I wasn't sure if that would be a big problem within his own locker room and I don't think it has been, but I also thought Mayfield was not the best Quarter Back coming out of that Draft. None of the Quarter Backs selected in the Draft have excelled to suggest the Browns could have looked elsewhere, but Mayfield himself seems to get a lot more headlines than his talent warrants.

A couple of weeks ago Rex Ryan described him as 'over-rated' and I do agree with that with some out there thinking he is on the way to being an elite Quarter Back. I see more comparisons with Kirk Cousins as someone who will feast on the lower quality teams in the League, but not someone you can rely upon when it comes to big games.

That is harsh on a player who has only had seventeen starts in the League, but that is only five fewer than Patrick Mahomes and I know which of the two Quarter Backs I would want to lead my team. Baker Mayfield will have a solid career in the NFL I am sure and he is playing behind an Offensive Line which is struggling when it comes to pass protection, but some of the throws Mayfield makes would worry me massively.

At least one of the Interceptions in the loss to San Francisco on Monday Night Football was down to Mayfield completely missing where he intended to hit his Wide Receiver and causing the bounce off the hands of the Receiver into the arms of the Defensive player. It was a bit unlucky, but the Receiver was wide open and the throw and problems from it were caused by Baker Mayfield.

I expect he will bounce back this week with a much better game, but Mayfield is inconsistent and not even close to being as good as some would have you believe.


Toilet Bowl Part 1: The 0-5 Washington Redskins and the 0-4 Miami Dolphins meet on Sunday and the winning team will feel like the losing one later in the season with both chasing the Number 1 Pick in the Draft.

Arguably the game with the two worst teams in the NFL is ironically enough being played at the same venue as the Super Bowl in February, but this is only Part 1 of what could be a number of these 'Toilet Bowl' games involving Miami this season.

Winless Cincinnati and New York Jets face the Dolphins this season, while the Jets also visit the Redskins and face the Bengals too. The team that can take the most losses from those games is likely going to finish with the Number 1 Draft Pick and so they will be fascinating in their own way through the course of 2019.


Jay Gruden Out, Who's Next? And what about Washington?: It was perhaps a surprise that Jay Gruden was fired in the manner he was (he was allowed to go home on Sunday and then told to be in the office at 5am Monday morning to be fired, not sure why that couldn't have just been done later on Monday or at least right after the game on Sunday?), but the former Head Coach of the Washington Redskins would have known his time was numbered after the latest flat loss.

The Redskins will likely go with an Interim Head Coach through the remainder of the 2019 season before Dan Synder tries to make a big splash with some suggesting he has targeted Mike Tomlin from the Pittsburgh Steelers. I do think Snyder will give himself some thinking time (not that it will help this owner too much) and Bruce Allen is clinging onto his power with the Redskins which suggests this team is as far as ever from competing.

NFL teams rarely do an in-season firing, but it feels like a couple of Head Coaches will need to find something big soon to turn the momentum against them. Most likely is Dan Quinn with the Atlanta Falcons who were hoping for a PlayOff run and instead are at 1-4 having just given up over 50 points to the Houston Texans.


Should Dallas pay Dak Prescott as their Franchise Quarter Back: This is not a question of whether they will or not as it seems the Cowboys are convinced about Dak Prescott despite his eye-catching numbers largely coming against poor teams in 2019.

More importantly is whether they SHOULD pay Prescott- I am not convinced he is much more than a game-manager, an upper end game-manager, and so paying along with the elite Quarter Backs in the League is not what I would be thinking about doing.

I might be proven wrong, but the Cowboys will find it very difficult to shift the Quarter Back without putting in the kind of clauses that saved the Miami Dolphins when paying Ryan Tannehill. Even then it would set the team back if they do end up overpaying for Prescott who looks really good on some days, but really bad on others and I tend to find that depends on the level of opponent he is facing.

With the Cowboys Offensive Line banged up, Prescott does have a chance to showcase his own abilities in the next few weeks as running the ball might not be as comfortable as it has been. Ezekiel Elliot has not been firing as he would have liked either so Prescott has a chance to prove that I have got him wrong, even though it won't matter to Jerry Jones and Dallas who are almost certainly going to pay him anyway.

My Top Five

1) New England Patriots- not always looked their best Offensively, but the Defensive side of the ball is on fire and the Super Bowl Champions are going to be the team to beat in January barring massive injuries. The last unbeaten team in the AFC

2) Green Bay Packers- big win on the road in the Big D, and they look like a team who could improve on both sides of the ball. Defeat to Chicago Bears just gives them some breathing room at top of the NFC North.

3) New Orleans Saints- with Drew Brees still to come back, New Orleans look very strong at 4-1 as the Defensive side of the ball steps up.

4) Kansas City Chiefs- I know they lost this weekend so they could have slid a few more places in other people's Rankings, but the Chiefs are still looking like the second best team in the AFC. Will be hoping Patrick Mahomes is not too banged up.

5) San Francisco 49ers- they look good on both Lines which is always a boost for any team. If Jimmy G can just settle down again, the 49ers might be the team to beat in the NFC West. Only unbeaten team in the NFC left this season.

My Bottom Five

32) Miami Dolphins- you know it is bad when the spread makers have you down as the underdog in your Bye Week.

31) Washington Redskins- even the Washington Redskins are favoured by more than a Field Goal to win in Miami this weekend so that is the gap between the bottom two teams in my Rankings. Don't get me mistaken though, the Redskins are a hot mess.

30) New York Jets- still without a win, but I think the return of Sam Darnold will be a huge plus for this team.

29) Cincinnati Bengals- I thought about dropping them below the Jets, especially after a home loss to the previously winless Arizona Cardinals. However the Bengals have been more competitive than the Jets in recent weeks, although I wouldn't be surprised if the Jets end up with the better record in 2019.

28) Atlanta Falcons- lame duck Head Coach and just allowed over 50 points in Week 5's defeat at the Houston Texans. I can't believe they are favourites on the road this week even though they are facing the Arizona Cardinals.

Week 6 Picks

After a couple of positive weeks, I have suffered through back to back losing Weeks for the NFL Picks which is a real disappointment.

At least two of the selections I would love to have back after they feel through without ever really looking like winners, but I have to grit my teeth and look for a better record in Week 6. It is far too early in the season to be panicking, but I am looking for my first really big week of the season in the NFL having achieved that recently from the College Football Picks and I do think that week is just around the corner.

I am not one for just saying this and moving past it, I want to see the better results beginning in Week 6 and looking to put some momentum behind this season.

In this thread you can read the Week 6 Picks from the NFL Season as well as the updated totals from the 2019 season so far.


New York Giants @ New England Patriots Pick: Over the last few years the New York Giants will be remembered for upsetting the New England Patriots not once, but twice in the Super Bowl. Things have changed dramatically for the Giants since the last of those in February 2012, for example this is going to be a game they will not be starting with Eli Manning.

Daniel Jones has come in and shown enough in his rookie year at Quarter Back to suggest the Giants are in a good position for the years to come with Manning reduced to a backup. The change had to be made if only to appease a fanbase that has lost all faith in Eli Manning's capabilities and back to back wins before the blow out loss to the Minnesota Vikings in Week 5 suggests it was the right move made by the Giants.

However we can't deny that this is a difficult spot for Jones who has to travel to New England on a short week and who is likely going to be without a number of Offensive weapons that could aid him. Saquon Barkley is unlikely to be risked despite news that he is much closer to a return from injury than the initial time line would have suggested, while his backup Wayne Gallman suffered an injury in Week 5 which is expected to keep him out.

Running the ball might have been the best hope for the Giants on Thursday Night Football to keep themselves in with a chance of upsetting New England, but without their first two choices at Running Back it might not be easy to do so. The Patriots have a Defensive Line that has impressed, but has not been as stout against the run as they would have liked so I do think Jones will scramble for a couple of big plays on the ground, although to sustain that against a Bill Belichick coached Defense is not going to be an expectation.

Since Barkley went down with an injury, the Giants have struggled to move the chains on the ground anyway so it might be up to the arm of Daniel Jones to give them a shot. The conditions in Foxboro don't exactly scream out for a big passing day, but injuries to Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram has depleted a Receiving corps that saw the Giants see fit to move on Odell Beckham Jr in the off-season.

Throwing against the Patriots is a difficult looking task in any conditions though and Daniel Jones could find himself under immense pressure from the New England pass rush whenever he is in third and long spots. The Giants Offensive Line has not been too good when it comes to pass protection and it might mean the Patriots are able to get to the rookie Quarter Back with the belief that Belichick will look to take away any semblance of a running game and force Jones to try and beat through the air.

Running the ball hasn't been much easier for the New England Patriots in 2019 either, although this does feel like a game in which Sony Michel can crack a couple of big plays. Unlike the Giants, New England have all of the experience in the world with Tom Brady and they have a passing Offense which should be able to feast on a Giants Secondary which has struggled throughout the season.

Again it has to be said the conditions are perhaps going to be the biggest opponent for the Patriots to deal with when it comes to dropping back and throwing the ball. It is expected to be a little wet and windy in Foxboro on Thursday Night Football, but Brady can run the Offense to crack big plays without taking risky long passes.

His only negative in this game might be dealing with the Giants pass rush if the likes of Michel and James White can't get the rushing Offense on track. Even then Brady is largely well protected and he can get the ball out of his hands very quickly which should see New England continue to move the chains and perhaps reach at least 30 points scored for the fifth time in six weeks to open the 2019 season.

The key to the spread in my mind is about how much Offense the Giants can produce and I do know we have seen many rookies struggle at Quarter Back when facing Bill Belichick for the first time. Daniel Jones is almost playing with one hand tied behind his back when you think of the injuries the Giants arrive with and I do like the Patriots here.

It is the third time New England have been asked to cover a spread of 15.5 points or higher this season and they are 2-1 against the spread in those games. The Patriots are 8-4 against the spread as the favourite on Thursday Night Football and they are 5-0 against the spread when facing a non-Division opponent with a losing record.

New York Giants are 1-7 against the spread under Pat Shurmur when playing a team with back to back straight up wins while coming off a non-Division game. On a short week I do think the Giants might struggle to score enough points to remain within this number.


New Orleans Saints @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: When Drew Brees picked up the thumb injury that was likely going to keep him out for a few weeks the consensus was that the New Orleans Saints were fortunate to be playing in the weak NFC South. However the Carolina Panthers are on something of a roll so it has been very important for the Saints that backup Teddy Bridgewater has been able to manage three wins in a row and guide New Orleans to a 4-1 record.

This is going to mean the Saints are in a good place when Brees returns and Bridgewater is coming in off one of his better games having been little more than a game manager in wins over the Seattle Seahawks and Dallas Cowboys. Those are the kind of wins that show that the Saints have a real depth to their team outside of their future Hall of Fame Quarter Back, while Teddy Bridgewater carved up the Tampa Bay Secondary in Week 5 to help the Saints to a big Divisional win.

In Week 6 they face the Jacksonville Jaguars who have also lost their starting Quarter Back when Nick Foles was injured in the first game of the season. Gardner Minshew was a Sixth Round Draft Pick and had to be seen as a project for the Jaguars, but instead he has come in and thrown for almost 1300 passing yards with 9 Touchdowns to a single Interception which means the team have likely found the Quarter Back that will have the keys to the Offense for the next two seasons.

Those numbers are impressive, but the Jaguars are 2-3 in the AFC South where they trail the Houston Texans and Indianapolis Colts by a single game. That is a manageable distance, especially if they can win this game in Week 6 like I believe they can.

Minshew would love to get some help from Leonard Fournette at Running Back and earlier in the season you would have felt he could have a big game. The Jaguars have continued to pound the ball with success, but New Orleans Defensive Line has just stiffened up front since the Brees injury and so it might be a real test for the Jaguars to show their own Offensive Line powers in opening up holes for their rushing Offense.

It has been a Line that has been less successful when it comes to pass protection so the likes of Marcus Davenport and Cam Jordan will be licking their lips. However Minshew has also shown he is capable of scrambling around the pocket and extending plays and I do think that is going to be vital, especially as the New Orleans Secondary has one or two holes that can be exploited when Quarter Backs are given the time to throw against them.

With Fournette expected to give the Saints some issues in stopping the run, Minshew can pick up the reigns and help the Jaguars move the ball in the expected hot Florida weather. Extending drives to tire out the Defensive unit will be important for Jacksonville and winning the field position battle will also allow their own strong Defense to step up and force Bridgewater into uncomfortable positions.

Surprisingly there have been holes on the Defensive Line which has seen the Jaguars give up 6.4 yards per carry in their last three games. Whether New Orleans can exploit that is another thing with Alvin Kamara banged up and the fact that teams are beginning to load the box and dare Bridgewater to beat them through the air.

Teddy Bridgewater had a very strong outing in Week 5 which may aid the Saints as teams will have to respect the pass, but Jacksonville will be looking to get their pass rush going to try and rattle the Quarter Back. I do think the Saints will have some success moving the ball, but this might not be a great spot for the players who are coming off two big Conference games and have to visit the Chicago Bears last week.

Taking on a non-Conference game might not be ideal for them and I do think opposing a public underdog is a bonus. Jacksonville should be able to have another success Defensively and I also think the conditions in Florida will suit the home team a lot more than New Orleans.

Backing the Jacksonville Jaguars as a home favourite has not been a productive play in recent years, but the return of Jalen Ramsey is a bonus for the Defensive unit. I expect Gardner Minshew to have a decent game against a New Orleans team who may be focusing on other games rather than this non-Conference one and laying the points is the approach for me.


Houston Texans @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: Two teams with winning records coming in off contrasting performances in Week 5 are facing each other in a big Week 6 game. The Kansas City Chiefs and Houston Texans are both Divisional leaders, but the Chiefs are looking to bounce back from a poor home loss to the Indianapolis Colts in primetime on Sunday, while the Houston Texans just put up 50 plus points in a home win over the Atlanta Falcons.

That has seen the line move a few points in favour of the underdog and has just lessened the appeal in backing the Houston Texans. However, they are still going through a key number in this one and I think the road team might be able to keep this one close enough on the day even if I believe they will come up short when it comes to winning outright.

Deshaun Watson vs Patrick Mahomes should be a game being played in a much better primetime spot in my opinion, but I would not be surprised if this is the first of two meetings between these teams in the 2019 season.

In Week 6 I do think the potential injury that Mahomes is playing through could be a concern for the Chiefs who need their superstar Quarter Back at his best if they are going to challenge for a spot in the Super Bowl. Last week Mahomes had an Offensive Lineman step on his ankle and his movement was limited through the remainder of the defeat to the Colts, while Indianapolis did follow the blueprint set up by the New England Patriots in trying to limit the time Mahomes had to run the Offense.

Kansas City are going to need Mahomes to be close to his best because they may have one or two issues trying to establish the run against an improving Houston Defensive Line. With the Quarter Back they have, teams can't afford to completely focus on shutting down the run against the Chiefs, but Houston will feel their Line can at least limit the impact Kansas City have on the ground and make sure Mahomes is not escaping the pocket too frequently either.

Putting the clamps on Patrick Mahomes is a different test altogether though and I am not sure Houston are going to be able to do that. Their Secondary has struggle in defending the pass and Mahomes is helping the Chiefs average 320 passing yards per game in the last three for his team, although the question mark around his ankle might mean he is not able to escape the Houston pass rush pressure as he would if 100% healthy.

I do think the Kansas City Chiefs will be able to move the chains and score plenty of points in this one, but Houston can certainly keep up with them if they pick up from where they left off in Week 5. The Atlanta Falcons might not be a benchmark for any Offensive output, but the Chiefs are not exactly a Defensive powerhouse and I do like what Houston will be bringing to the table.

The Texans will use Carlos Hyde and Duke Johnson to establish the run and they should be able to do that with the Offensive Line averaging 4.5 yards per carry in their last three games. That is not quite in line with the season average, but Houston should have success against the Chiefs Defensive Line which has given up 5.1 yards per carry in recent games and who struggled to stop the Indianapolis Colts last week.

Running the ball effectively will just make things that much more comfortable for Deshaun Watson to hit his Receivers for big plays. The Chiefs have a few issues in the Secondary that can be exploited especially if a team is able to run the ball effectively against them and I think the Houston Texans will be in a position to score plenty of points.

It is also important to run the ball to protect the Quarter Back with the Offensive Line still having difficulties in looking after Watson behind them. Keeping the Texans in third and manageable spots will be ideal as Watson has the capabilities of running the ball as well as he throws it and I do like the Texans this week as the road underdog.

I am expecting a big reaction from the Kansas City Chiefs off a loss, but the road team is 5-1 against the spread in this series. Also, Kansas City are just 1-13 against the spread as a home favourite of less than 9 points when playing the second of back to back home games.

Deshaun Watson has been a great road underdog to back since coming into the NFL and has improved to 7-1 against the spread in that spot this season. I will back him to duel Patrick Mahomes all the way in this one and keep the Houston Texans in with a chance to win this game outright, but taking the points looks the right play.


Philadelphia Eagles @ Minnesota Vikings Pick: Both the Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles are at 3-2 following strong wins over New York teams in Week 5, and both have a huge road game against a Divisional rival coming up in Week 7. However the importance of this game won't be lost on either with the two teams expected to be battling for Wild Card spots in the NFC later this season and tie-breakers potentially separating a loaded Conference.

They look to be evenly matched on paper and I think this is going to be a fun game with questions to be answered by both teams and the two starting Quarter Backs.

Kirk Cousins found his groove in a dominant win in Week 5, but the Quarter Back has long been seen as someone who will be very good when playing the weak teams in the NFL, but who will struggle when the pressure intensifies in big games. That is most certainly the case in Week 6, but Cousins has a vast experience of taking on the Philadelphia Eagles from his time with the Washington Redskins and I do think he can follow up the kind of level he produced in the win over the Giants.

The Minnesota Vikings will need Cousins at his best even though they are a team that will be looking to establish the run first and foremost. Dalvin Cook has had his injury problems since coming into the NFL, but he has shown this season why he is considered such a good player and the Running Back has helped the Vikings average 5.4 yards per carry on the ground this season.

However stopping the run has proven to be one of the best elements of the Philadelphia Defensive unit and that is likely going to slow down the Vikings just a little bit. Dalvin Cook has shown he is always capable of snapping out a big run or two so it would not surprise me if that is the case in this game, but ultimately it is going to come down to the arm of Cousins to really give the Vikings a chance of winning.

Cook will also be a factor in the passing game as a safety blanket for Kirk Cousins who will have to deal with the strong Philadelphia Defensive Line and the pass rush they have been able to produce in recent games. I have no doubt that Jim Schwartz will want to send the pressure throughout the sixty minutes of this game and try and pressure Kirk Cousins into mistakes while also protecting a Secondary that has been dealing with a vast amount of injuries and not playing up to the level they would be expected to.

The pass rush has helped the Secondary in recent games, but I also think the Eagles are facing a stronger Quarter Back than Luke Falk who struggled against Philadelphia last week.

Kirk Cousins tends to play much better at home so I do think he can pick up from where he left off in the win over the New York Giants. He should provide enough points for the Minnesota Defensive unit to protect even if Carson Wentz has been doing enough to help the Eagles win back to back games.

After a slower start to the season than expected, the Vikings Defensive Line has really clamped down on the run and I do believe they are going to be able to control Jordan Howard and Miles Sanders in this game. Being strong up front will force Wentz into third and long spots and that is exactly where the Vikings would want to have the Quarter Back as they continue to make big plays throughout the game.

The Philadelphia Offensive Line has protected Carson Wentz effectively, but they are going to be challenged by Mike Zimmer's pass rush. There has been enough pressure to slow the passing game and the Eagles are also dealing with plenty of injuries in their Receiving corps which makes it hard to believe they are going to win their battles on the outside.

Carson Wentz is a very good Quarter Back who will make some plays, but I like the Vikings being able to at least control the Eagles at home and they can stall enough drives to win this game and cover the number.

Both teams hold some strong trends at home/on the road respectively and it can be hard to trust Kirk Cousins in big games. However I think the skill players in the Minnesota team can make the difference on the day, while Carson Wentz has a losing record against the spread when set in the underdog role on the road.

Minnesota have a very strong record at home under Mike Zimmer and they have been a solid favourite to back. On the other hand the Eagles have a losing record on the road under Doug Pederson and I am going to back the Vikings to earn a big home win on Sunday.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens Pick: The last time the Cincinnati Bengals played in a Divisional game on the road it was on Monday Night Football and they were blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers without Ben Roethlisberger. Last week the Bengals were dropped to 0-5 for the season and they are a big road underdog in Week 6 as they get set to visit the Baltimore Ravens.

In Week 5 the Ravens avoided being involved in crisis style headlines as they overcame a bunch of mistakes to beat the Steelers on the road to maintain control of the weak looking AFC North. The Ravens are the only team in the Division with a winning record and they lead the Cleveland Browns by one game, but Baltimore are looking to bounce back from their last home performance when embarrassed by the Browns.

Lamar Jackson started the season on fire in the blowout win over the Miami Dolphins, but suffice to say that things have gotten much more difficult since then. There are still some issues with the accuracy that Jackson has when he drops back to pass, but his legs could be more important in this game anyway with the Ravens expected to dominate the Cincinnati Defensive Line.

The Bengals are allowing 5 yards per carry on the 2019 season and have shown very little sign they are going to improve that markedly through the remainder of the regular season. Now they are going to be tested by a mobile Quarter Back and Mark Ingram who have helped Baltimore produce almost 200 yards per game on the ground at 5.3 yards per clip and I think it is going to be a tough day in the office for the Bengals.

The Baltimore Offensive Line has had issues in pass protection, but I am not seeing too many problems for them in Week 6. The Bengals have an ineffective pass rush and the Secondary play has suffered too with teams being given the time to get Receivers open and avoid back breaking Interceptions.

Lamar Jackson should be able to bounce back from his recent outings and I think he is going to have a big game moving the chains for Baltimore both on the ground and through the air. You can understand them being a double digit favourite with the expected performance on the Offensive side of the ball, but the Baltimore Defensive unit has had a few issues themselves and Andy Dalton and company might be able to take advantage.

AJ Green has been absent and John Ross is injured to take away a couple of key pieces for Dalton at Quarter Back, but I still think there is an opportunity for Cincinnati if they can just clear up a couple of mistakes. Joe Mixon has not been as big a feature for the Bengals at Running Back either, but he has shown his ability as the Offensive Line is beginning to settle down and Mixon could be all important on the day.

In previous years running the ball against the Baltimore Defensive Line would have been a fool's errand, but this Ravens team is not as strong as those that have come previously. Instead they are allowing 5.6 yards per carry over their last three games and have struggled since the Week 1 win over the awful Miami Dolphins so this could be the week in which Mixon can get himself well established.

It is key for the Bengals to be able to run the ball and help and Offensive Line that have been worse in pass protection than run blocking. Andy Dalton has been under siege for much of the season which is also contributed to Receivers not being able to break free of their coverages, but Baltimore's pass rush has been erratic in 2019 and so we may see Dalton have one of his better showings of the season.

There are some huge holes in the Baltimore Secondary which were even being exploited by a third string Quarter Back being used by the Pittsburgh Steelers last week. If Cincinnati can run the ball, Andy Dalton should be able to make enough plays to keep the chains moving and at least make the Bengals competitive even if winning is a long shot.

Running the ball will also slow the pass rush just a touch and offer Dalton a couple of ticks longer to survey the field and I do like the road underdog to surprise with the points. The underdog is 8-2 against the spread in the last ten Divisional games between these teams and Cincinnati are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games in Baltimore.

Cincinnati are anything but a really good team, but they are 12-6 against the spread in their last eighteen games as the road underdog including going 2-1 this season. With Andy Dalton at Quarter Back, Cincinnati are 26-15 against the spread as the road underdog.

On the other side Baltimore are 1-7 against the spread in their last eight facing a team with a losing record on the road and they have not covered in their last seven when favoured by more than 8 points as the home team in a Divisional game. There is no doubt this is a lot of points to get the better of and I like the Bengals to stay within the number.


Dallas Cowboys @ New York Jets Pick: The good news for fans of the New York Jets is that Sam Darnold has been cleared to return at Quarter Back for their team, but the bad news is that they remain winless in his absence. The Jets dropped to 0-4 coming out of their Bye Week with a defeat to the Philadelphia Eagles as they showed next to nothing as an Offensive team with a third string Quarter Back starting either side of that Bye.

It won't be just the home fans looking for a bounce this week as the Dallas Cowboys try and get back to winning ways following consecutive defeats. The Cowboys are a hard team to read when you think they have crushed three of the weakest teams in the NFL and lost to two contenders in the NFC, but at 3-2 Dallas are joint leaders of the NFC East.

They can't afford to overlook the Jets even though a big game with the Philadelphia Eagles is on deck, and I don't imagine anyone associated with the Cowboys will be off back to back defeats. Offensively it has been something of a struggle for the Dallas Cowboys in the last two games, but turnovers have really hurt them and they have to play a much cleaner game if they are going to win in Gotham.

Dak Prescott is hoping to sign a big contract with the Cowboys, and the Quarter Back may have a very good chance to showcase his talent in this one. Dallas are likely going to need Prescott at his best with the chance that Ezekiel Elliot may not have an easy match up against the New York Defensive Line which has been very strong at containing the run.

At least two key members of the Dallas Offensive Line are likely to be sitting out in Week 6 so running the ball might be all the more difficult anyway and that is going to mean Prescott has to make the plays to win this game. He might be under more pressure than usual with those injuries to the Offensive Line, but the Jets have not gotten much of a pass rush going and that should mean Prescott can find the throws to get Amari Cooper, Michael Gallup and Jason Witten going.

The Quarter Back is facing a New York Secondary which has struggled in pass protection all season. Dak Prescott's Interceptions are a concern, but I think he will see the holes in the Jets Secondary to make some big plays and at least produce enough points to win this one on the road.

Avoiding mistakes will be key to covering the number set by Vegas though as I don't think the Jets will be capable of sustaining long drives throughout the game. Short fields will be giving up points, but asking the Jets to drive eighty yards for Touchdowns should see the Dallas Defensive unit step up and force some drives to stall.

Sam Darnold is a huge upgrade on Luke Falk at Quarter Back, but he is going to be a little rusty having missed much of the last month with mono. The last two weeks have seen Darnold taking some snaps in practice, but a game day is very different and he might not be able to ask for much help from Le'Veon Bell and the rushing Offense.

Bell has had a difficult time since leaving Pittsburgh and the Running Back has been involved in some trade rumours seeing as the new regime running the Jets were not the ones to sign him. Head Coach Adam Gase wasn't enamoured with the money that was given to Le'Veon Bell either and the Jets have only picked up 3.1 yards per carry on the season while this week he will be going up against an improving Dallas Defensive Line.

While the Offensive Line have struggled to open holes for the patient Bell, they have really had issues in protecting the Quarter Back. A recovering Sam Darnold might not have the mobility to help avoid the Sacks that have been killing the Jets drives, and this Cowboys team have really got going up front which is going to be very important for them to make sure they stay on top of New York.

The pass rush has helped improve the Dallas Secondary play too and I do think Darnold will have limited successes throwing the ball. While he is much better than Luke Falk and Trevor Siemian, Darnold is likely going to make one or two errors in reading the plays and I think the Cowboys can shut down the Offensive plays to help them cover here.

Dak Prescott has helped the Cowboys go 8-5 against the spread as the road favourite, while Sam Darnold has dropped to 0-4-1 against the spread as a home underdog. The Dallas Quarter Back is also 3-1 against the spread when playing off consecutive losses and the Cowboys are 7-1 against the spread when playing a team with a losing record at home.

The Jets have not covered in any of their last seven road games and only one of those ended in a push so I am backing the Cowboys to win and cover here.

MY PICKS: New England Patriots - 17 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Houston Texans + 4 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Minnesota Vikings - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)
Cincinnati Bengals + 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Dallas Cowboys - 6.5 Points @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Seattle Seahawks - 1 Point @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Washington Redskins - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arizona Cardinals + 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Week 5: 4-5, - 2.72 Units (18 Units Staked, - 15.11% Yield)
Week 4: 3-6, - 6.54 Units (18 Units Staked, - 36.33% Yield)
Week 3: 5-2, + 3.28 Units (12 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4, - 2.70 Units (14 Units Staked, - 19.29% Yield)
Week 1: 4-4, + 0.16 Units (15 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Season 2019: 19-21, - 8.52 Units (77 Units Staked, - 11.06% Yield)