College Football Week 13 Picks 2020 (November 27-29)

Week 13 of the normal College Football season is usually a pivotal time of the regular season, but that is not the case in 2020 like so many other things we have taken for granted.

Instead the regular season has been pushed towards mid-December when the Championship Games are also expected to be paid, although you can still make or break a season on Thanksgiving Weekend.

Games have been spread from Thursday through to Sunday this week with rivalry games still on the board and you can see my selections below.

I will be adding to this thread over the next couple of days too.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Iowa Hawkeyes Pick: The Big Ten West is firmly in the grip of the Northwestern Wildcats, but that doesn't mean the Iowa Hawkeyes and Nebraska Cornhuskers will be allowed to coast towards the end of the 2020 regular season. The Hawkeyes are still very much in a position to be called up for a Bowl Game next month, while the Cornhuskers have to show they are still behind beleaguered Head Coach Scott Frost who has failed to revitalise this proud school.

A 1-3 record is a big disappointment for Nebraska even if two of those losses have come against the Division leaders in the Big Ten Conference. It is the defeat to the Illinois Fighting Illini which will have really worried the Athletic Director at Nebraska and I do think Frost is very much on the hot seat and will be fired if he is not able to turn things around.

Quarter Back problems continue to blight the Cornhuskers and they are going to announce a starter closer to this game, but whether it is Adrian Martinez or Luke McCaffrey it is going to be a difficult day for Nebraska. They are facing an Iowa team who are motoring with three straight wins behind them to bounce back from a poor 0-2 start to the 2020 season and the one point defeat to Northwestern will have already shown the Hawkeyes that they are amongst the best teams in this Conference.

Usually the Quarter Back could turn around and hand the ball off with the hope that Nebraska would be in front of the chains, but that looks like a tough task against this Hawkeyes Defensive Line that have clamped down on the run. Both Martinez and McCaffrey are able to make some plays scrambling with their legs, but it feels like it is going to be a difficult day running the ball for Nebraska and becoming one-dimensional against this Defensive unit would be a big challenge.

There are one or two holes that teams have exploited against Iowa's Secondary, but it has not been a good year throwing the ball for Nebraska who have been a little loose with their control that has led to turnovers. The pass rush is especially an issue for Nebraska's Offensive Line which has not been able to protect whoever has been behind Center and any time they are behind the chains they have to feel the pressure is coming.

It is going to make it difficult for Nebraska to score a lot of points against this Iowa Defensive unit and that could be a major problem if the Cornhuskers are not able to slow down the run when they are on Defense.

Last week the Fighting Illini ran all over Iowa and there is no doubt that the Hawkeyes are going to be trying to do the same. The Offensive Line has opened up big holes for Mekhi Sargent and Tyler Goodson and both are coming off big performances against the Penn State Nittany Lions so should be able to pick up up from where they left off in Week 12.

They have been strong running the ball in their three game winning run and Iowa are not expected to find a lot of resistance from the Nebraska Defensive Line. For much of this game I imagine Iowa are going to be in front of the chains in down and distance and that should mean play-action throws are available for them if they look to move the ball through the air too.

There has been a limited pass rush being created by Nebraska and I just think they are going to have a tough time stopping their hosts much as they did when facing Illinois last week. Add in the turnover margin that Iowa have and I do think the Hawkeyes will make the plays to cover what looks a big spread on paper.

Iowa are 3-1-1 against the spread in their last five games at home, while Nebraska are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven on the road. The Cornhuskers are also 2-5 against the spread in their last seven as the underdog and I am going to back the home team to cover here.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ North Carolina Tar Heels Pick: They are in the foursome that makes up the first College Football PlayOff, but the Notre Dame Fighting Irish will come out of their Bye Week knowing the hard work is still in front of them. The Fighting Irish are the only unbeaten team in the ACC Conference, but they are likely going to have to play the Clemson Tigers with Trevor Lawrence in the Championship Game next month and that will decide which of those two teams will make the PlayOffs.

Brian Kelly is not going to worry too much about the long-term implications of a Championship Game, but he will be well aware that a defeat before that game will put Notre Dame in a difficult position to be invited into the PlayOffs. Their best bet is to remain unbeaten in the regular season and then hope even a defeat is not costly in the Championship Game with other Conferences perhaps struggling to put up better teams.

On paper this looks to be the most difficult game left for the Fighting Irish in the regular season. They are visiting the North Carolina Tar Heels who have a 6-2 record and may yet feel they could push into the Championship Game consideration in this Conference as long as they are able to win this game.

Mack Brown has to be really pleased with the way his Tar Heels have performed on the Offensive side, but he will also be well aware that his team have to have improved Defensively during the Bye Week to earn the upset.

Slowing down Ian Book won't be easy with the Quarter Back coming on leaps and bounds for Notre Dame in the 2020 regular season. He has been aided by a strong running game and the Fighting Irish have found a perfect balance Offensively which makes it very difficult to believe the Tar Heels will have improved enough to be able to slow them down.

One element which could be a factor is that the Notre Dame Offensive Line may be missing a couple of starters which may just weaken them in this one. At least they have had some time to try and bring the replacements up to task, but the Fighting Irish have to be aware of the North Carolina pass rush which has been very productive.

The full strength Offensive Line may have been able to protect Ian Book, but the replacements could have a tougher day and that will give the Tar Heels some chance to slow down drives. However it may be clutching at straws as the Fighting Irish are expected to be able to run the ball and then look for Book to make the throws which has raised his stock in College Football throughout 2020.

North Carolina will be trying to keep up behind Quarter Back Sam Howell who has been a huge part of the successes the Tar Heels have had this season. He has been helping the Tar Heels average over 550 yards of Offense per game in 2020 and the Tar Heels will believe they can at least test the Fighting Irish as Clemson did in the high-scoring defeat the Tigers suffered.

I do think Howell will make some big plays for the home team, but the key to the outcome of this game will be the line of scrimmage and whether North Carolina can impose their running game on this Notre Dame Fighting Irish Defensive Line. All season the Fighting Irish have been able to clamp down on the run and force teams to become a little one-dimensional which leads to a fierce pass rush getting to the Quarter Back and turnovers to be created.

The Tar Heels have been very good on the ground and their Quarter Back is able to scramble with his legs too, but I do really like this Notre Dame Defensive Line. Even though they won't completely shut down North Carolina, I do think they can make enough plays to put the home team in obvious passing down and distance and that would be a big win for the road favourites.

As good as the North Carolina Offensive Line has been when it comes to opening up holes for the running game, they are not as effective when it comes to pass protection. It is an area where the Fighting Irish can get some joy to either force Field Goals or Punts and that could be the key to Notre Dame winning this game and covering the mark.

The road team has covered in the last four games in this series.

Notre Dame are 5-1 against the spread in their last six as the road favourite. You have to respect the fact that the Tar Heels have a 4-1 record against the spread in their last five as a home underdog, but I can't help feel that they are going to struggle to stop Notre Dame Offensively and not be able to keep up on the scoreboard despite the powerful Offense run by North Carolina in 2020.

Maryland Terrapins @ Indiana Hoosiers Pick: Covid-19 issues have meant the Maryland Terrapins have not been able to play a game for almost a month and cancelling the game against the Ohio State Buckeyes means they are not in control of their own destiny in the Big Ten East. The Terrapins are 2-1 in the Conference and they did bounce back from the shellacking handed out by the Northwestern Wildcats, but there has to be a slight concern that they are not battle ready to take on an opponent like the one they face in Wee 13.

Wins over the Minnesota Golden Gophers and Penn State Nittany Lions means Maryland have beaten teams with a combined 2-8 record, but the Indiana Hoosiers are 4-1 in the 2020 season.

In Week 12 a poor start meant Indiana were playing catch up against the Ohio State Buckeyes and while they made a game of things, it was a hole that was too difficult to overcome. There is still so much to like about the Hoosiers in 2020 and Head Coach Tom Allen has made it clear to the players that there is still so much to play for if they can secure a strong end to the season even if the Big Ten Championship is beyond them.

The Hoosiers are back home this weekend having played their last two games at Michigan State and Ohio State. There has been much to like about them this season, but Tom Allen would love to see the Offensive unit produce a little more balance in their play rather than relying on the arm of Michael Penix Jr as much as they have, even though the Quarter Back has stood up in the face of all challenges faced.

They have simply not been able to run the ball with any consistency which has meant looking for Penix Jr to step back and throw the ball down the field. There is a feeling that Indiana can find one or two more holes up front against this Maryland Defensive Line, but they have shown they can be hard to stop through the air anyway and I expect Michael Penix Jr to have another very big game.

He is coming off a career best 491 passing yards and there are some big holes in the Maryland Secondary that Michael Penix Jr will be expecting to exploit. The Offensive Line may not have opened big holes for the run, but they have given their Quarter Back the time he needs to hit his Receivers and I think that will be something we see in Week 13 as Indiana look to score at least 35 points for the fifth time in six games in 2020.

The Indiana Hoosiers should be able to have success Offensively, but I do think Maryland will have their own positives even though we cannot be exactly sure of how the Terrapins have been dealing with all the adversity they are facing off the field. I do think Maryland will have the chance to establish the run in this one, especially with the dual-threat from Quarter Back, although the Hoosiers Defensive Line is arguably the strength of the team this side of the ball.

Taulia Tagovailoa, Tua's brother, is running the show for Maryland and he has shown he can scramble for First Downs as well as throw for them. Over the course of the season Indiana's Secondary have played pretty well, but they have been exposed for some big plays in their more recent games although that might be partly down to the fact that the Hoosiers have played a better level of competition.

With that in mind I do think Tagovailoa is going to make some big throws in this one, but he has to be aware of the Indiana pass rush which is likely going to get the better of the Maryland Offensive Line. If the Terrapins fall behind the chains it could be difficult for the Quarter Back, although Taulia Tagovailoa has put together a two game stretch where he has the most passing yards in over twenty years.

Even though I do think Maryland will have some very good drives, I do think the Indiana Hoosiers can bounce back from their Week 12 loss at Ohio State and show they are one of the better teams in the Conference. The home team is 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series and the Hoosiers can keep that trend going.

Indiana have covered in their last six games as the home favourite and Maryland have not played that well when set as the road underdog. The Terrapins won in Happy Valley earlier this month, but they were blown out by the Northwestern Wildcats and I think the Indiana Hoosiers will be able to make enough plays to cover this mark.

Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: These two teams are out of contention in the SEC West, but that won't mean the rivalry game between the Mississippi Rebels and Mississippi State Bulldogs has any less intensity to it. The Egg Bowl has been won by the Bulldogs in the last two seasons, the 2019 win coming in controversial fashion, and two first year Head Coaches will be looking to make a real mark for the fans to savour.

The Mississippi Rebels have won two games in a row and have scored 113 points in those wins over the Vanderbilt Commodores and South Carolina Gamecocks. Those wins have moved the Rebels to 3-4 for the 2020 season and they will have been buzzing during the Bye Week as they get set to host their rivals.

Mike Leach has not has the early impact he would have wanted with Mississippi State, but the Air Raid Offense took a bit of time to become established in his last job with the Washington State Cougars and the same will be the case in the SEC. They might have a 2-5 record, but outside of the blow out loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide this has been a fairly competitive team and that makes the points being offered to them look appealing.

A part of the reason for the spread is clearly the last two wins for the Rebels which has seen them score points at will. Those have to be respected, but they were big favourites in both games and have done what was largely expected of them.

The Rebels should be able to continue piling up the points in this one, although they might find their Offense looking a little one-dimensional if Mississippi can't get things moving on the ground. They have managed to do that for much of the season, but the Mississippi State Defensive Line have been able to clamp down on the run and that will mean the home team will have to take to the air.

It is likely to be a successful approach because the Bulldogs Secondary have not been able to slow down any opponent and Mississippi have been piling up the numbers. Matt Corral has been well protected by his Offensive Line and I do think he will find some big holes in the Secondary which he can exploit as he continues to help the team average over 350 passing yards per game in 2020.

Avoiding turnovers will be a key for Corral if the Rebels are going to win this one easily, but as poor as the Mississippi State Secondary have been they have been able to force Interceptions and extra possessions could be so important in this rivalry.

Mike Leach is looking for his team to simply show some improvement in each passing week this season with the belief that the Bulldogs will be much better for it in 2021. He has been largely pleased with what he has seen and even the close loss to the Georgia Bulldogs did not dent his spirit.

One aspect that the Head Coach would love to see an improvement from is the running game, but they have struggled to get anything going on the ground all season. As poor as the Mississippi Defensive Line has been when it comes to stopping the run, it is hard to trust a Bulldogs team averaging a ridiculously poor 21 yards per game on the ground on average this season.

KJ Costello and Will Rogers have both had time at Quarter Back for the Bulldogs and it would not be a surprise to see both playing their part in this one. The Offensive Line has been a little weak when it comes to pass protection too, but I am not sure Mississippi have the pass rush to really get to the Quarter Back and it should be a big day throwing the ball.

The Rebels have a Secondary which has given up big plays through the season too, but they may be looking to take advantage of any mistakes that either Costello or Rogers make. In recent games the Bulldogs have been taking care of the ball much better than they were earlier in 2020 and that should mean they have a chance to score plenty of points too.

I would have loved to have gotten double digit points in this one, but I am still happy enough with the amount of points being offered to Mississippi State.

The underdog is now 6-2 against the spread in the last eight Egg Bowls and the road team have gone 4-1 against the spread in the last five. Mississippi State have some poor trends as the underdog which is a concern, but I will look for them to keep this one close with their ability to make enough plays through the air to stay with the hot scoring Rebels.

MY PICKS: Iowa Hawkeyes - 13.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Indiana Hoosiers - 12 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Mississippi State Bulldogs + 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Rutgers Scarlet Knights + 11 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

Duke Blue Devils - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Midweek Football Picks 2018 (November 27-29)

Match Day 5 of the Champions League and Europa League Group Stage takes place this week and we should have a number of clubs booking their places in the Knock Out Rounds of the competition.

With an incredibly busy festive period kicking off, teams will want to put their European commitments to the back of the mind until next February as soon as possible. That is especially true for those playing in the English Premier League which has the heaviest of the Christmas schedules compared to the other top European Leagues and three of the four teams involved in the Champions League will likely be through to the Last 16 if they are able to win on Tuesday or Wednesday.

Tottenham Hotspur have the most work to do, while Liverpool will need to upset Paris Saint-Germain in the French capital, but both Manchester clubs look in a very strong position. Manchester City are through to the Last 16 for all intents and purposes, but a win on Tuesday would secure top spot, while Manchester United will go through if they beat Young Boys at home and Valencia fail to match the United win in Turin.

In the Europa League things are much more simpler with both Arsenal and Chelsea already through to the Last 32 of the competition. The race for the top four back in the Premier League is going to be a real battle with the way things have developed in the first three months of the season, so having the second avenue back into the Champions League through Europa League success is something that won't be ignored by the two new managers of those London clubs.

Unai Emery in particular has had notable success in the Europa League and has admitted he would rather get back into the Champions League by winning that trophy instead of a top four finish.

Juventus v Valencia Pick: The pressure has shifted to Valencia after seeing their main rivals for a place in the Last 16 win in Turin earlier this month.

The Manchester United come from behind win over Juventus means they are 2 points clear of Valencia and with a winnable home game to come on Match Day 5. It simply adds up to Valencia needing to head to Turin and most likely win if they are going to remain alive on Match Day 6 for a place in the Last 16 of the Champions League.

Valencia have only won 1 of their last 6 away games in European competition and they are facing a Juventus team who will be looking to return this Stadium into the fortress it had been in European Football. Some of the aura has been lost during a run of 1 win from 5 home Champions League games and Juventus have lost 2 of their last 3 here, but fans will recognise the unfortunate manner of the loss to Manchester United.

A similar performance will make Juventus very difficult to beat and they look to be a little healthier in forward areas going into Match Day 5 as they look to maintain control of this Group. The 1-2 home loss to Manchester United does mean the head to head has been lost to the Premier League club so Juventus can't really afford a slip if Manchester United are somehow able to win their last 2 Champions League games.

Juventus have been very strong at home with 9 wins from their last 11 games here in all competitions. The situation should be one that works to their advantage with Valencia likely having to take chances at some point as they chase the win they are more likely going to need to have a chance to make the Last 16 of the Champions League.

That should mean spaces open up for a Juventus team who are looking to win the Group and I will back the Italian Champions to win well on Tuesday.

Lyon v Manchester City Pick: After being beaten on Match Day 1 at home, Pep Guardiola and Manchester City would have signed up being in a position where a revenge win over Lyon would be enough to take them through to the Champions League Last 16 as Group Winners.

Even a draw would mean Manchester City are firmly in control of the Group, but Guardiola doesn't really play for draws and his team are in such strong form that you can't imagine anyone connected with the club settling for it.

They were surprised by Lyon back in September as the French side countered with speed and energy against a lacklustre Manchester City. The defeat should be motivation enough for Manchester City to try and turn things around and they have won 12 of 13 games in all competitions since the home loss to Lyon.

Lyon won't be a pushover, as they have already proved in this Group with the win at the Etihad Stadium, but they have struggled defensively since then. The side have conceded at least twice in each of their 3 Champions League games since the win over Manchester City including in back to back 2-2 draws at home.

They have come from behind to earn draws with Hoffenheim and Shakhtar Donetsk in this Group, but that won't be easy to do against Manchester City who look to be taking as strong a squad as possible to France for this game. Manchester City will have a few days to rest after this game before being back in Premier League action and I think their strong away record in the Champions League over the last fifteen months can't be ignored.

I have to respect a Lyon team who have scored plenty of goals in the Champions League this season, but Manchester City are in stunning form at the moment. This feels like the kind of game where Manchester City can make a statement to the rest of the teams in the Champions League that they are ready to challenge for the trophy come May.

The home team should be able to play their part in this one, but I think Manchester City might be too strong for them on current form. I will back the English Champions to win this one by a couple of goals on the day as they are able to really twist the screw if they go ahead like Hoffenheim and Shakhtar Donetsk have been able to do in games against Lyon in this Group.

Manchester United v Young Boys Pick: It is hard to really trust Manchester United to win any game of football at the moment and it is no different on Tuesday when they face what should be an overmatched opponent in Young Boys.

The confidence of the squad looks to be fragile at best and Jose Mourinho continues to point the fingers at almost anybody but himself. Some of the tactics have been questionable though and the perseverance with Nemanja Matic in the middle of the park is frustration as was the recall for Romelu Lukaku on Saturday despite Manchester United looking more fluid without him.

That is down to the manager and ultimately he is going to fall on his own sword if Manchester United can't find some consistent results sooner rather than later.

This is a game that should be one Manchester United can dominate as they face a Young Boys team who have struggled with the step up to the Champions League level. Young Boys have already been beaten comfortably at Juventus and Valencia in this Group and they were beaten 0-3 by Manchester United at home as the defensive strength was exposed at this level of competition.

Manchester United have to start better than they have been to take away any confidence Young Boys may have. It isn't easy to trust that is going to happen, but I have to believe there will be some reaction to Saturday and knowing a win should be enough to progress through to the Last 16 has to be motivation for the players to produce a big performance.

I am finding it hard to trust Manchester United considering the form shown for several months now, but it would be the lowest point for the club if they can't win this one. After beating Juventus in Turin it would be a real waste if Manchester United can't back that up and win this fixture.

The fans at Old Trafford are going to be restless so a fast start is imperative for Manchester United. I think they are going to be too strong for Young Boys considering the gap in quality of the two squads and I do believe Manchester United can match the margin of wins both Juventus and Valencia have had over the Swiss Champions in the previous 2 away games played by Young Boys.

Paris Saint-Germain v Liverpool Pick: This is a massive Champions League game for both Paris Saint-Germain and Liverpool who would have both been popular picks to challenge for the trophy this season.

Neither one of these teams can be happy about dropping into the Europa League, but the losing team on Wednesday could be in big trouble if Napoli win as expected when they host Crvena Zvezda.

There is more pressure on Paris Saint-Germain who know a defeat would likely mean they are exiting the tournament. Even a draw may not be good enough and they are hoping Kylian Mbappe and Neymar will be passed fit for this fixture having picked up knocks during the last international break.

With that situation in mind, you would think Liverpool could cause some big problems on the counter attack, but this team have produced their two worst performances in the 2018/19 season in their two away Champions League games. Don't be fooled by the late 1-0 loss in Naples as Liverpool were very fortunate not to have lost by a much wider margin and they followed that up with a lacklustre 2-0 defeat in Belgrade to Crvena Zvezda.

A similar performance to those two would put Liverpool on the back foot in this one and Paris Saint-Germain have been very good at home in the Champions League.

I won't deny that Paris Saint-Germain have tended to disappoint me when they have played and they needed a late goal to earn a home draw with Napoli. They were beaten 1-2 by Real Madrid and defensively Liverpool will feel there are some holes to exploit which makes them dangerous.

However Liverpool have lost 3 straight away games in the Champions League and they have not been as strong as they would have liked so far in the competition. I think that gives Paris Saint-Germain the slight edge in this one and I will back them on the Asian Handicap to secure a vital three points and leave Liverpool in a must win situation on Match Day 6 against Napoli at Anfield.

PSV Eindhoven v Barcelona Pick: Playing away from home has been a difficult task for Barcelona in recent Champions League games, but they are facing a PSV Eindhoven team who have struggled to reach the required standards to compete in the Champions League this season.

In both home games PSV Eindhoven have conceded twice to Inter Milan and Tottenham Hotspur and the situation is a difficult one for the Dutch Champions.

They will need at least a point to have a chance of making it through to the Europa League Last 32 and that means perhaps taking more risks than they would want to against Barcelona.

PSV Eindhoven do have some energy in the forward areas which caused Barcelona some problems when these two teams met at the Nou Camp. That means they deserve some respect, especially in front of their own fans, and Barcelona could be missing some key players that most definitely weakens them.

Even with that in mind it is hard to see PSV Eindhoven being able to contain the threat of Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi and I think the situation means they will leave spaces to be exploited in the second half. That should give Barcelona enough of an advantage to win here and I think they can put PSV Eindhoven away with a killer goal late in the game.

A win will secure top spot in the Group for Barcelona and they can achieve that with a good looking win in the Netherlands.

Tottenham Hotspur v Inter Milan Pick: There are some big, important Champions League games being played this week as we have reached Match Day 5 of the Group games and one of those comes from Wembley Stadium as Tottenham Hotspur look to take another step towards the great escape.

After earning one point from their first 3 Champions League games, Tottenham Hotspur really needed to win their last 3 games in the Group to have a chance to progress. They managed the first by coming from behind to beat PSV Eindhoven, but Inter Milan's draw with Barcelona has just complicated things a little bit.

It now means Tottenham Hotspur have to win this game 1-0 or by two or more clear goals so they have the head to head advantage over Inter Milan who are 3 points clear of Spurs going into this round of fixtures. A draw would be good enough for Inter Milan to make it through to the Last 16 before Match Day 6 and it should be a tense game for both teams.

However the Tottenham Hotspur performance in their 3-1 win over Chelsea on Saturday will provide a huge boost of confidence and I do think Inter Milan have overachieved in this Group. The Italian side have lost 2 of their last 3 away games including a crushing 4-1 defeat at Atalanta last time out, while they have lost 5 of their last 6 away games in European competition.

There is pressure on Tottenham Hotspur to win by a margin that gives them the head to head advantage over Inter Milan, but I do think the home team can get the better of their visitors. The return of Jan Vertonghen could be huge for Tottenham Hotspur who look healthier in the forward areas and that can give them the edge in this one.

I think Tottenham Hotspur will win this one and I will back them to win a game that features two or more goals as they head into Match Day 6 with every chance of scraping into the Last 16 after a poor start to the Group.

MY PICKS: Ajax & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Bet Fred (2 Units)

CSKA Moscow & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.15 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Hoffenheim & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Roma + 0.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)

Juventus - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester United - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.80 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Borussia Dortmund - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

Porto & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.35 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

Napoli - 2 Asian Handicap @ 1.83 Bet365 (2 Units)

Paris Saint-Germain - 0.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet365 (2 Units)

Barcelona - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.10 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tottenham Hotspur & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)

College Football Week 14 Picks 2014 (November 27-29)

The final week of the regular season for those Conferences that have a Championship Game takes place over the holiday season in the United States and also means Week 14 is split over three days.

It is an important week where teams are coming down to the final chances to impress the Committee deciding the College Football Play Off which saw no changes to the top four teams on Tuesday evening. However, the likes of Mississippi State and Alabama have big rivalry games this week as they compete in the Egg and Iron Bowl respectively, while one of those teams won't be involved in the SEC Championship Game next week.

Florida State continue escaping from the clutches of a loss and Oregon remain ahead of them in the Ranking, although both have tough games to play this week ahead of their own Championship Game in the ACC and Pac-12 next week.

Teams like the Baylor Bears, TCU Horned Frogs and the Ohio State Buckeyes remain on the outside of the Play Off picture but all three should be ready to pounce if one, or more, of the top four teams falter in the remaining two weeks. Of those teams, the Buckeyes may have the best opportunity to impress as they take on Michigan in a huge rivalry game and potentially have to play an improving Wisconsin Badgers in the Big Ten Championship Game, but it will be interesting to see if they have enough to overtake Mississippi State if the Bulldogs knock off Ole Miss and fail to win the SEC West with an Alabama win.


Some have spoken about the UCLA Bruins potentially being a dark horse to take a place in the final four, but they have two losses on their slate and I am not sure even a win over Stanford and Oregon in back to back weeks would be enough for them to move above three other teams.


Week 14 is the last full schedule of the College Football season and there are plenty of games to be played through the next three days, including a pretty full Friday slate taking advantage of the holiday season in the States.


TCU Horned Frogs @ Texas Longhorns Pick: Over the last few weeks, the Texas Longhorns have improved dramatically from the opening weeks of the season and secured their Bowl eligibility in Charlie Strong's first season when beating the Oklahoma State Cowboys. The Defense has been a strength of this Longhorns team all season, but the Offense is finally producing enough to win games and that might actually be good news for the TCU Horned Frogs.

At this stage of the season, winning big games is very important and I think Texas have improved enough for this to carry some weight for the Horned Frogs as they go on the road.

The TCU Defense is perhaps a little under-rated and I think they will give Tyrone Swoopes some problems to deal with especially if they can play the run effectively. That might make it difficult for the Longhorns to move the ball consistently, although their own Defense has played well enough to give Trevone Boykin and the Horned Frogs Offense some issues.

Texas have made life tough for the Baylor Bears and the Kansas State Wildcats this season, although TCU might have a better balance on Offense to keep Texas guessing. Boykin is a real dual-threat from the Quarter Back position and the Horned Frogs have run the ball effectively enough to open the passing lanes, although this game is going to be close.

Both teams have been well prepared coming off a bye, although I am wary of TCU's poor 1-6 record against the spread as the road favourite in the last three seasons. However, I think Texas exhale a touch after becoming Bowl eligible and TCU have so much to earn by winning this game and that is why I like the Horned Frogs.


Houston Cougars @ SMU Mustangs Pick: Any rivalry game does bring in its own issues to resolve, but it is hard to see how the Houston Cougars fail to dismiss the awful SMU Mustangs who have yet to win a game this season.

The Mustangs have barely been competitive in those losses which has to be the bigger disappointment and they have suffered too many big defeats through the season. Houston should have a lot of success running and throwing the ball against this SMU Defense and the bigger question is whether the Mustangs can score enough points to stay within a three Touchdown number Houston are being asked to cover.

Unfortunately for SMU, the Cougars Defense has played very well all season and they have limited teams on the ground which should allow them to get after a porous Offensive Line that has struggled to protect whoever lines up behind Center for SMU. Houston have turned the ball over and are giving up fewer than 190 passing yards per game and those extra possessions may see them get over this number they are being asked to lay.

SMU are just 1-4 against the spread at home this season and they are just 3-7 against the spread as the underdog, both numbers I expect Houston to increase.


Stanford Cardinal @ UCLA Bruins Pick: For all the success Brett Hundley has had against USC in his career as the UCLA Quarter Back, he is yet to beat Stanford and the Cardinal have won 6 in a row against the Bruins.

However, this Stanford team have struggled this season and UCLA have a huge motivation of getting themselves into the Pac-12 Championship Game. This isn't the Cardinal team that the UCLA Bruins may have been a little intimidated of playing in the past as they are just 4-4 in Pac-12 play this season, while Stanford are just 1-4 against the spread on the road, losing 3 of those games outright.

On the other hand, UCLA have improved in each passing week and looked so good in dismantling the Trojans last week, while some Bruins fans may be hoping a late push for a Play Off place is not out of the question despite the 2 losses on their schedule. UCLA won't have it easy against this Stanford Defense, but there is no doubt that unit hasn't played as well on the road and that is where the Bruins hosting the game could make a real difference.

Add the Offensive struggles that Stanford have faced and the fact they are coming up against a Bruins Defense that has also been improving on a weekly basis and it could be a tough time for David Shaw and his team.

UCLA have improved to 2-0 as the home favourite laying between 3.5 and 7 points this season and Stanford are missing a huge playmaker in Ty Montgomery which suggests the Bruins reach the Championship Game with a lot of momentum behind them.


East Carolina Pirates @ Tulsa Golden Hurricane Pick: I do respect the fact that the Tulsa Golden Hurricane should have success passing the ball against this Pirates Secondary, but I still believe the East Carolina team can keep their slim ACC title hopes alive with a win.

In reality, the best they can hope for is getting a share of the title this season, but they should have the balance Offensively to move the ball up and down the field without too many problems in this one. East Carolina have been guilty of shooting themselves in the foot at times with ill-timed penalties, but making Tulsa's Offense one-dimensional will give them the edge in this game.

One concern is how bad the East Carolina team has been as a road favourite this season, especially when it comes to clearing the spread as they are currently just 1-4 in that spot. However, this Tulsa team lost by 20 plus points against Memphis and UCF, albeit both on the road, and who are more likely to lose the turnover battle which could lead to the Pirates pulling away to also win this one by at least 20 points.


Michigan Wolverines @ Ohio State Buckeyes Pick: This is one of the most intense rivalries in College Football which makes the points that Ohio State are being asked to lay look very large indeed.

Don't get me wrong- Ohio State are likely going to be far too good for the Wolverines with a chance to push into the College Football Play Off, but they also have to take notice of leaving something in the tank for the Big Ten Championship next week.

On the other hand, Michigan can empty the tank in this one as they need the win to become Bowl eligible and the team hasn't seemed to have given up on Brady Hoke despite the Head Coach most likely on the way out after this one. The Wolverines could have a chance to run the ball effectively and that can bleed the clock and perhaps keep this game closer than the layers believe it will be.

The Buckeyes should win, and I expect they will win, but I am taking the points that are set at almost three Touchdowns.


Cincinnati Bearcats @ Temple Owls Pick: This is one of those classic Defense v Offense games that can be tough to call, but I do think the Cincinnati Bearcats are playing a little too well for the Temple Owls to keep with them.

The Bearcats have won 5 straight games in pretty dominating fashion which is a clear contrast to Temple who have been outgained in their last 5 games. As long as Cincinnati can steer clear of the mistakes that lead to turnovers, they should be too good for Temple.

Cincinnati have gone 9-4 against the spread as the favourite of more than a Field Goal and up to 10 points and they have also gone 3-0 against the spread as the road favourite. I like the Bearcats to win this one by at least a Touchdown.


Mississippi State Bulldogs @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: The Egg Bowl is going to be decided with a potential Play Off spot on the line for the Mississippi State Bulldogs, although I am not convinced that they will be invited into the final four if they don't win the SEC West and subsequently the SEC Championship Game.

They won't worry about that at the moment with the Alabama Crimson Tide playing later in the evening, although Ole Miss would love to upset them and guarantee Mississippi State are out of contention.

The Rebels have now lost their last 3 SEC games including being shut out by Arkansas last week with 'bad' Bo Wallace playing, but the Quarter Back may bounce back against a Bulldogs Secondary that has had a hard time all season.

However, you have to like the hunger that Mississippi State have shown all season and Dak Prescott can underline his Heisman credentials by leading them to a win over a very good Rebels Defense. The last few weeks have seen Ole Miss taking some real big body shots and I think they will give their all but ultimately come up short against a Bulldogs team with so much motivation behind them.

If Bo Wallace plays as well as he can, Mississippi could spring the surprise, but I will look for the Bulldogs to create a couple of turnovers and come through. The Bulldogs are 5-2 against the spread when set as a small favourite or underdog and I like Mississippi State to win by a Field Goal.


Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ USC Trojans Pick: The season has been something of a disappointment for both the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and USC Trojans despite opening with such promise. While Notre Dame have been on a poor run of results, it will be interesting to see how the Trojans can pick themselves up from yet another defeat to rivals UCLA.

Both teams should have success throwing the ball and both Cody Kessler and Everett Golson should have a big day, but mistakes have seen their teams lose games they perhaps shouldn't have.

USC haven't been a great favourite to back though and that would be a concern laying a Touchdown in terms of points in this one. They have to also pick themselves up from their disappointment from last week and Notre Dame are 7-4 against the spread as the underdog over the last three seasons.


Minnesota Golden Gophers @ Wisconsin Badgers Pick: This is a game to decide which of these teams will be playing in the Big Ten Championship next week and I am looking for a better all around performance from the Wisconsin Badgers in this one.

The Badgers have dominated the recent games in the series and will look for their big Offensive Line to dominate and open the running lanes for Melvin Gordon in this one. Wisconsin did struggle to slow down Iowa last week once they got into a big lead, but they should be stronger in the trenches in this one and I don't believe Minnesota can match the passing that Jake Rudock put together for the Hawkeyes under pressure.

It will be really tough for Minnesota to hold down Wisconsin and I can only say the same I did last week that the Badgers will eventually wear down the Golden Gophers with their power running. That should see them pull away in this Big Ten West decider and the fact that this game is at home is another key for Wisconsin.

Wisconsin are 6-3 against the spread when set as a big favourite between 10.5 and 21 points and I think they are going to prove too big and powerful for Minnesota.


Baylor Bears @ Texas Tech Red Raiders Pick: Do you think the Baylor Bears might have seen the impressive TCU Horned Frogs win over the Texas Longhorns on Thanksgiving Day? That would have given TCU plenty of style points to impress the voters and the Horned Frogs admitted that was on their mind at the end of the game.

So how can Baylor respond? In all honesty, they won't have too many better chances to put up points against a Texas Tech Defense that has struggled stopping the run or the pass and had 82 points put on them by the Horned Frogs.

I do think Texas Tech's Air Raid Offense scores points too, but they have also made mistakes and that can only give Baylor the chance to put together a really big win in this one.

Baylor beat Texas Tech by 29 at home last season and will look to match that margin at least and there is no doubt they will look to run up the score if they possibly can in this one. I expect the Defense to make a few plays to perhaps pick up extra possessions and Baylor should win this game fairly comfortably.

The Bears are 5-1 against the spread when favoured by more than 21.5 points and not as many as 31.5 points in the last three seasons and they are playing a Texas Tech team that are surprisingly 0-2 against the spread with that many points as the underdog over the same time.


Michigan State Spartans @ Penn State Nittany Lions Pick: The Michigan State Spartans have shown the character they have built in their football programme by not feeling sorry for themselves after losing to Ohio State.

The loss to the Buckeyes has ended Michigan State's chances of winning the Big Ten East and their place in the College Football Play Off, but the Spartans have won back to back games since then and won those games by 22 points and then 42 points so this team clearly wants to end the season on a high.

The Michigan State Defense is a very good unit and they know Penn State have been a little predictable when it comes to their Offense and so it may be tough for the Nittany Lions to move the chains consistently in this one.

However, Penn State have been competitive in most of their games this season which is a concern in backing Michigan State in this one. On the other hand, the Nittany Lions are just 1-5 against the spread in Conference games and they are facing a Michigan State team that has a 7-3 record against the spread as the favourite. Penn State are a tough team to knock off, but the Spartans are playing too well at the moment.


Florida Gators @ Florida State Seminoles Pick: No one is that convinced about the Florida State Seminoles and the last time they hosted the Florida Gators they were beaten by 11 points in 2012, but I like going against the public in this one and looking for the Seminoles to get passed their last big test before the Play Off.

Florida's players showed their support for fired Will Muschamp who is done as Head Coach at the end of the season by whipping Eastern Kentucky last week, but that was an overmatched team and the Seminoles are a different challenge completely.

I just feel Florida State's Jameis Winston makes the big plays in this one that lead the Seminoles to the most impressive win of the season and I am not sure Florida can keep up if this becomes an Offensive battle. The Gators Defense is for real, but Winston helped his team score 37 points against them last season and I think the Seminoles win this by double digits on Saturday.

This is a statement game for Florida State and I do think they come through with a big, important win.


Auburn Tigers @ Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: As one of the big rivalries in College Football, it is fitting that so much is on the line when the Alabama Crimson Tide host the Auburn Tigers in this final SEC regular season game. The Crimson Tide have so much to gain by beating their rivals who would love nothing more than to play spoiler against Alabama's National Championship ambitions.

This is a legitimate revenge game for Alabama after the way the 'kick six' went down against them last season and they have been very good the last two times they have been in this spot against Auburn. In those two games off a loss to the Tigers, Alabama have won by 36 and 28 points.

I do feel Alabama are the better team and they have been playing the better football than Auburn coming into this one, although the sheer fact this is a rivalry should see an improved performance from the Tigers. However, I think the Crimson Tide Defense will make more plays than their Tigers counterparts and that should allow Alabama to pull clear.

Alabama have not been a great favourite to back but they would have covered against Mississippi State if not for a Touchdown thrown with 15 seconds left and I believe they leave this game with less doubt than that one.


Oregon Ducks @ Oregon State Beavers Pick: This is a vital game for both teams for different reasons as the Oregon Ducks know one more loss would likely knock them out of the College Football Play Off and the Oregon State Beavers are still trying to make themselves Bowl eligible. That should make the Civil War great viewing for the fans with both teams likely able to air the ball out through the game.

Big difference between the teams could be Oregon's ability to run the ball and a more effective pass rush that may stall the Beavers drives and that is why I believe the Oregon Ducks cover a big number.

Oregon have won 6 straight games since their sole loss this season and have covered the number in each of those games, while the Ducks have won three road games at Oregon State by large margins.

Marcus Mariota can improve his chances of landing the Heisman in this game and also lead Oregon into the Pac-12 Championship Game with another big performance. The Ducks are now 9-3 against the spread as the road favourite over the last three seasons, while Oregon State are just 1-4 against the spread as the underdog this season.

It does seem Oregon have far more to lose than Oregon State and they have definitely been focused in winning games impressively and I think they add the Beavers to that list in Week 14.


Washington Huskies @ Washington State Cougars Pick: The Washington State Cougars have lost 4 of their last 5 games in the series with the Washington Huskies and they are unlikely to improve that record of recent years. The Cougars did win the last time they hosted Washington, but it is a big ask for them to do that again in this one.

Washington State will have their success throwing the ball, as any Mike Leach run Offense will do, but they struggle to run the ball and will be under pressure from the pass rush that Washington can generate.

On the other hand, Washington will be able to run the ball and then make plays against a Secondary that allows 300 passing yards per game.

The Huskies are 5-1 against the spread in the last three years when the spread is up to three points in either favourite or underdog situation. Washington State are 0-2 against the spread as the home underdog of 3 points or less over the same time span and the Huskies might just be too good for them again in Week 14.

MY PICKS: TCU Horned Frogs - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Houston Cougars - 21 Points @ 1.92 Coral (1 Unit)
UCLA Bruins - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
East Carolina Pirates - 17.5 Points @ 1.92 William Hill (1 Unit)
Michigan Wolverines + 20.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Cincinnati Bearcats - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Mississippi State Bulldogs - 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Notre Dame Fighting Irish + 7 Points @ 1.85 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Wisconsin Badgers - 14.5 Points @ 1.92 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Baylor Bears - 26.5 Points @ 1.92 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Stan James (1 Unit)
Florida State Seminoles - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 8.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Oregon Ducks - 19 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Washington Huskies - 3 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 13: 7-6, + 0.37 Units (13 Units Staked, + 2.85% Yield)
Week 12: 7-5, + 1.40 Units (12 Units Staked, + 11.67% Yield)
Week 11: 9-4, + 4.34 Units (13 Units Staked, + 33.38% Yield)
Week 10: 6-7, - 1.51 Units (13 Units Staked, - 11.62% Yield)

Week 9: 4-9-1, - 5.31 Units (14 Units Staked, - 37.93% Yield)

Week 8: 5-7, - 2.26 Units (12 Units Staked, - 18.83% Yield)

Week 7: 3-8, - 5.31 Units (11 Units Staked, - 48.27% Yield)

Week 6: 2-7, - 5.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 57% Yield)

Week 5: 4-5, - 1.13 Units (9 Units Staked, - 12.56% Yield)

Week 4: 6-5, + 0.58 Units (11 Units Staked, + 5.27% Yield)

Week 3: 3-7-1, - 4.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 38% Yield)

Week 2: 5-6, - 1.18 Units (11 Units Staked, - 10.72% Yield)

Week 1: 6-4, + 1.77 Units (10 Units Staked, + 11.7% Yield)

Season 2014: 61-73-2, - 17.55 Units (149 Units Staked, - 11.78% Yield)

Season 2013: 65-49-2, + 8.49 Units (124 Units Staked, + 6.85% Yield)

Season 2012: 54-59-1 - 7.11 Units (114 Units Staked, - 6.24% Yield)

Season 2011: 63-36, + 23.25 Units (99 Units Staked, + 23.5% Yield)