The 2019 season has been a really good one for the Tennis Picks, but I think Friday 26th April is comfortably the worst day I have had during over the course of the first four months of the year.
My selections went 1-4 on the day, but it was a highly frustrating one with both Kei Nishikori and Petra Kvitova having no right to not cover in the wins they earned. The former missed a shedload of break points in the early stages of the second set and could easily have taken it 6-1 or 6-2 with some better composure, while the latter was on the brink of a cover despite losing the first four games of the match. That all went up in smoke when Petra Kvitova failed to hold serve one more time when leading 4-2 in the final set and both players missed the cover by half a game.
Matteo Berrettini's win over Pablo Cuevas also failed to cover the number as he decided to take the second set off which was dropped 6-1 and then missed multiple break points which would have earned the cover in the final set.
The only selection I was actually disappointed in was Guido Pella who was outplayed by Dominic Thiem, but with that in mind I had no right going 1-4 on the day.
On Saturday we are into the Semi Final matches at the tournaments being played this week and you can read my selections below.
Kei Nishikori v Daniil Medvedev: This is a fascinating Semi Final and one that is going to tell us a lot about Daniil Medvedev and whether he really has turned a corner on the clay courts like his results over the last two weeks are suggesting. Prior to the 2019 season, Medvedev had struggled to impose himself on opponents on the clay courts, but he has won some big matches already this year which is perhaps further evidence of the overall improvement the young Russian has made over the last twelve months.
The victories over Stefanos Tsitsipas and Novak Djokovic stand out and adding Kei Nishikori to that list would be really impressive. So far this week Medvedev has barely been tested as he has made comfortable progression through the draw into this Semi Final, and his numbers have remained impressive.
Daniil Medvedev is continuing to serve very well, but he is backing it up with some impressive returning which is making him a real threat on the surface. Last week he was beaten surprisingly by Dusan Lajovic considering the wins Medvedev had earned on the court in Monte Carlo prior to that and I do think Kei Nishikori is very comfortable on this surface and is playing well enough this week to win this pick 'em contest.
The Japanese star has yet to drop a set this week in Barcelona where he is a former Champion, but this is an opponent who is playing at a higher level than the previous ones he has faced.
However Kei Nishikori will be feeling very confident from the fact he has held 93% of his service games, although I do think that number is going to be given a severe examination by the Medvedev return game. Both players will be confident in their return game as Nishikori comes into this match having won 44% of return points this week and only a poor performance on the break points in the last Round prevented him from having a better number than the 37% of return games in which he has broken serve.
These two players have met three times in a little over twelve months and in that time it is Nishikori who has had the edge with two wins to one for Medvedev. In those matches Nishikori has had the slightly superior service numbers which have proven to be a difference maker, while Nishikori also dominated their one clay court match in the Monte Carlo Masters in early April 2018.
I can't deny it feels like Medvedev has improved on the clay in the time since that last match, but Kei Nishikori is one of the best players on the Tour on the surface and I will back him to edge to a win.
MY PICKS: Kei Nishikori @ 1.91 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Weekly Update: 2-4, - 4.74 Units (12 Units Staked, - 39.50% Yield)
Showing posts with label Kei Nishikori. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Kei Nishikori. Show all posts
Saturday, 27 April 2019
Tuesday, 21 June 2011
Wimbledon Day 2 Picks
Well the first day of the tournament did not go to plan after Ekaterina Makarova put pay to my fourfold. To say I was disappointed would be an understatement and once again shows how weak the WTA Tour really is.
This is something that the analysts and experts seem to like to ignore when it comes down to the crunch, but Women's tennis is definitely at a very low point and is possibly in the worst shape I remember. It is hard to envision Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal being universally talked about as Grand Slam Champions if they had taken a year off the tour through injury and barely played a match in that time, something the Ladies Tournament has in the form of Serena Williams this year.
Too many of the players on the WTA Tour go about their business in the same mould- bludgeoning the ball at every opportunity and not really constructing points in the manner they should be. Unsurprisingly, it is the older heads that are expected to dominate the tournament again this year.
The Fernando Verdasco-Radek Stepanek match was postponed until tomorrow thanks to the rain in the afternoon. The weather is expected to be good all day as the tournament organisers look to get back on schedule with a lot of tennis expected all day.
Now on to Day 2 Picks:
Men's Treble: Marcos Baghdatis vs James Blake, Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and John Isner vs Nicolas Mahut: All 3 of these guys are picked to come out as winners tomorrow for the following reasons.
Marcos Baghdatis has plenty of good form on the grass at Wimbledon in the past and played a solid tournament in Eastbourne last week. He has not really ever reached the level of success people expected after reaching the Australian Open Final, but is a former Quarter Finalist here.
James Blake is not the force he used to be and has spent much of his time on the Challenger Tour this season. The American has also had a hard time at Wimbledon during his peak years and I find it hard to see him winning 3 of 5 sets in this match.
Nicolas Almagro has the tools to be a success on the grass, although he has been a little out of form in recent matches. However, he has a 2-1 head to head over Jarkko Nieminen, a player who is definitely coming to the end of his career. It could be tight, but I think the Spaniard can come through.
John Isner and Nicolas Mahut meet again after their record breaking match a year ago. Isner's serve is a real weapon on this surface, while Mahut is another player on the last stretch of his career. I can see some tie breaks here, but think Isner is better off the ground while his serve is more effective.
Robin Soderling win 3-1 in sets vs Philipp Petzschner: I mentioned Philipp Petzschner as being one of my dark horses before the tournament started this year, but he has been given a really tough draw here. Robin Soderling is another who has all the tools to be a success on the grass courts, although I think Petzschner will make it difficult and steal a set off the Number 5 seed.
They have met once before on grass, Soderling winning 2-1 in sets in Halle, and I think Soderling's game is solid enough to take care of the German with a little blip in between.
Kei Nishikori win vs Lleyton Hewitt: There is still a doubt whether Hewitt will even play after pulling out with an injury at Eastbourne last week. If he does get to play, the veteran will face a tough opponent in the form of Kei Nishikori who is fresh off a Semi Final at Eastbourne.
Hewitt suffered a foot injury, and you can be sure Nishikori will look to make him play all day long and that could be the difference here. Brad Gilbert is Nishikori's coach and will surely have a plan to keep Hewitt moving on that injury.
Women's Treble: Julia Goerges vs Anabel Medina Garrigues, Lucie Safarova vs Lucie Hradecka and Tsvetana Pironkova vs Camila Giorgi: I have picked these three players for the following reasons:
Julia Goerges has been playing very well this year and can take advantage of the faster surface against a player that has not usually enjoyed much success on the grass. Goerges has only played 1 grass court match this year when losing to Ana Ivanovic in Eastbourne, but should have the edge if she can control her service action.
Lucie Safarova has a 1-0 head to head record over Lucie Hradecka and also has the lefty serve that can cause problems on any surface. Safarova also has a big game that can cause damage on the faster surfaces and she should be able to take advantage here.
Tsvetana Pironkova was a Semi Finalist here last year and her odds are clearly bigger because of her bad run of form. However, she pushed Serena Williams last week in Eastbourne and takes the court against an opponent that has yet to play on the main tour in her career. I expect Pironkova to expose these nerves that Camila Giorgi is sure to feel and come through.
MY PICKS: Men's Treble: Marcos Baghdatis, Nicolas Almagro and John Isner @ 3.09 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Robin Soderling win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Women's Treble: Julia Goerges, Lucie Safarova and Tsvetana Pironkova @ 3.24 BetFred (1 Unit)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units) Still to run from Day 1 Picks
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: - 1 Unit (after Day 1)
This is something that the analysts and experts seem to like to ignore when it comes down to the crunch, but Women's tennis is definitely at a very low point and is possibly in the worst shape I remember. It is hard to envision Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal being universally talked about as Grand Slam Champions if they had taken a year off the tour through injury and barely played a match in that time, something the Ladies Tournament has in the form of Serena Williams this year.
Too many of the players on the WTA Tour go about their business in the same mould- bludgeoning the ball at every opportunity and not really constructing points in the manner they should be. Unsurprisingly, it is the older heads that are expected to dominate the tournament again this year.
The Fernando Verdasco-Radek Stepanek match was postponed until tomorrow thanks to the rain in the afternoon. The weather is expected to be good all day as the tournament organisers look to get back on schedule with a lot of tennis expected all day.
Now on to Day 2 Picks:
Men's Treble: Marcos Baghdatis vs James Blake, Nicolas Almagro vs Jarkko Nieminen and John Isner vs Nicolas Mahut: All 3 of these guys are picked to come out as winners tomorrow for the following reasons.
Marcos Baghdatis has plenty of good form on the grass at Wimbledon in the past and played a solid tournament in Eastbourne last week. He has not really ever reached the level of success people expected after reaching the Australian Open Final, but is a former Quarter Finalist here.
James Blake is not the force he used to be and has spent much of his time on the Challenger Tour this season. The American has also had a hard time at Wimbledon during his peak years and I find it hard to see him winning 3 of 5 sets in this match.
Nicolas Almagro has the tools to be a success on the grass, although he has been a little out of form in recent matches. However, he has a 2-1 head to head over Jarkko Nieminen, a player who is definitely coming to the end of his career. It could be tight, but I think the Spaniard can come through.
John Isner and Nicolas Mahut meet again after their record breaking match a year ago. Isner's serve is a real weapon on this surface, while Mahut is another player on the last stretch of his career. I can see some tie breaks here, but think Isner is better off the ground while his serve is more effective.
Robin Soderling win 3-1 in sets vs Philipp Petzschner: I mentioned Philipp Petzschner as being one of my dark horses before the tournament started this year, but he has been given a really tough draw here. Robin Soderling is another who has all the tools to be a success on the grass courts, although I think Petzschner will make it difficult and steal a set off the Number 5 seed.
They have met once before on grass, Soderling winning 2-1 in sets in Halle, and I think Soderling's game is solid enough to take care of the German with a little blip in between.
Kei Nishikori win vs Lleyton Hewitt: There is still a doubt whether Hewitt will even play after pulling out with an injury at Eastbourne last week. If he does get to play, the veteran will face a tough opponent in the form of Kei Nishikori who is fresh off a Semi Final at Eastbourne.
Hewitt suffered a foot injury, and you can be sure Nishikori will look to make him play all day long and that could be the difference here. Brad Gilbert is Nishikori's coach and will surely have a plan to keep Hewitt moving on that injury.
Women's Treble: Julia Goerges vs Anabel Medina Garrigues, Lucie Safarova vs Lucie Hradecka and Tsvetana Pironkova vs Camila Giorgi: I have picked these three players for the following reasons:
Julia Goerges has been playing very well this year and can take advantage of the faster surface against a player that has not usually enjoyed much success on the grass. Goerges has only played 1 grass court match this year when losing to Ana Ivanovic in Eastbourne, but should have the edge if she can control her service action.
Lucie Safarova has a 1-0 head to head record over Lucie Hradecka and also has the lefty serve that can cause problems on any surface. Safarova also has a big game that can cause damage on the faster surfaces and she should be able to take advantage here.
Tsvetana Pironkova was a Semi Finalist here last year and her odds are clearly bigger because of her bad run of form. However, she pushed Serena Williams last week in Eastbourne and takes the court against an opponent that has yet to play on the main tour in her career. I expect Pironkova to expose these nerves that Camila Giorgi is sure to feel and come through.
MY PICKS: Men's Treble: Marcos Baghdatis, Nicolas Almagro and John Isner @ 3.09 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Robin Soderling win 3-1 in sets @ 3.5 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Kei Nishikori @ 2.00 Pinnacle (1 Unit)
Women's Treble: Julia Goerges, Lucie Safarova and Tsvetana Pironkova @ 3.24 BetFred (1 Unit)
Fernando Verdasco - 2.5 games @ 1.90 Pinnacle (2 Units) Still to run from Day 1 Picks
TOURNAMENT UPDATE: - 1 Unit (after Day 1)
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