Weekend Football Picks 2018 (December 8-10)

I've been away in the early portion of December and that has meant I have not really had the time to write down my thoughts for the Premier League games that have been played.

Missing two rounds of fixtures is what it is, but I have returned now and my selections can be read below as well as my Fantasy Football thoughts in what is a busy time of the season.

Fantasy players have to worry about rotation policies of managers especially with a huge amount of games crammed into a very small period of time through to the FA Cup Third Round. Injuries build up at this point of the season and you have to factor in the colder weather in the United Kingdom at this time of the year.


Bournemouth v Liverpool Pick: The quick turnaround in the Premier League means there are likely to be more rotations from managers, but Liverpool were able to rest key players on Wednesday in their win over Burnley.

It should mean the likes of Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino are available for this visit to the Vitality Stadium ahead of a vital game against Napoli in the Champions League during the week. The early kick off does give Jurgen Klopp the chance to play his strongest team as Liverpool look to move ahead of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League for a few hours at least.

While Liverpool have not been at their most convincing away from home, they have scored three times in back to back games at Watford and Burnley. The majority of the poorer performances have come in the Champions League and Liverpool should feel confident they can get the better of a Bournemouth team who just snapped a 4 game losing run in the Premier League.

Bournemouth started well but had to hold on in their 2-1 win over Huddersfield Town on Tuesday, while they have recently been beaten by Manchester United and Arsenal in League games here. The attacking mentality of Eddie Howe will always leave Bournemouth vulnerable against the better teams in the Premier League and it is no surprise that Chelsea, United, Arsenal and Manchester City have all scored at least twice against them already this season.

They have lost all of those games too and Bournemouth have conceded at least twice in each of their 3 home games against Liverpool since being promoted to the Premier League. The Cherries did recover from 1-3 down to beat Liverpool 4-3 in one of those games, but the other two fixtures here have ended in Liverpool wins and I think they can get the better of Bournemouth in this early Premier League fixture.

It should be a game featuring plenty of chances too and I will back The Reds to move to the top of the Premier League with a win in a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- the Egyptian should be well rested having been a substitute on Wednesday, while he has scored in 2 of the last 3 away Premier League games he has started.

Alternative: Xherdan Shaqiri- Bournemouth are a tough team, but they have lost to Arsenal and Manchester United here and Xherdan Shaqiri could playing further up the pitch if Sadio Mane is ruled out. He scored in 2 of the last 3 Liverpool League games.


Arsenal v Huddersfield Town Pick: With three League games in the space of a week it can be difficult to know when a team potentially hits a wall but Arsenal have momentum and I would be surprised if that happened to them here.

They don't have to worry about the Europa League game to be played during the week so Unai Emery can play as strong a team as he likes, although injuries are beginning to stretch the squad. Those are mainly in defensive areas and this Arsenal team have shown they can out-score opponents when feeling at their best.

Even keeping the defensive problems in mind, I am not sure Huddersfield Town are the best team to expose them. The Terriers have been in better form in recent weeks and they have not lost back to back away games in the Premier League since March, but a lack of goals continues to be a problem and I think they will find it tough to contain Arsenal here.

Huddersfield Town have forced draws at Everton and Burnley and won at Wolves this season so they should be respected. However they have conceded twice at Bournemouth during the week as they looked vulnerable defensively, while also conceding three goals in losses at Leicester City and Watford and this Arsenal team have enough in the final third to really hurt them here.

I am not sure Arsenal match the 5-0 win over Huddersfield Town from last season, but I think they win comfortably enough on the day and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.

Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- he may get the start having come off the bench in the last two games and scored at Old Trafford during the week.

Alternative: Henrikh Mkhitaryan- he has been a disappointment in recent games, but should have chances against an overmatched opponent when has shown his best for either Manchester United or Arsenal.


Burnley v Brighton Pick: Last season the defences came out on top in both Premier League games between Burnley and Brighton, but there is plenty to suggest the layers may have it wrong and that this could be a much more entertaining fixture.

Neither Burnley or Brighton are defending half as well as they were during the 2017/18 season and there should be chances for both teams in this one.

Glenn Murray's potential absence for Brighton could be a real blow, but Burnley have struggled to contain teams so I would expect the away team to come here and create chances. They have scored in their last 4 away games in the Premier League and the last two at Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town have produced at least three goals.

Goals have been flowing at Turf Moor too with the home team falling off the defensive standards they set last season. Burnley have conceded plenty of chances too so it hasn't been misfortune that has hurt the team and they have been involved in some high-scoring games here including against a shot-shy Newcastle United team.

Shane Duffy's suspension should help Burnley too, and I would not be surprised if both teams score in this one. There should be chances for that to happen and recent Burnley and Brighton home/away games respectively have produced plenty of goals and these two teams can surprise by doing the same here at a very big price.

Fantasy Star: Chris Wood- Burnley need goals and Chris Wood's returning to form may be their best avenue.

Alternative: Florin Andone- came on and scored for Brighton during the week and could lead the line if Glenn Murray is ruled out. Burnley have not defended that well so Andone should have chances.


Cardiff City v Southampton Pick: Two teams at the wrong end of the Premier League table will meet in a big game on Saturday and the layers believe it could be a fixture filled with tension and they are not expecting too many goals.

I agree that it will be tense as Cardiff City are under pressure to keep producing big performances at home during a time they are struggling for results on their travels. On the other side Southampton have to be playing with little confidence at the moment and the players will be trying to impress a new manager who may not get his methods across to the squad for a few weeks.

However it should be pointed out that the two teams have been producing decent football in the final third which has resulted in plenty of goals being scored. Cardiff City came from behind to beat Wolves and they have scored at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 home Premier League games while they have not been able to keep a clean sheet in that time.

Southampton have conceded at least three goals in 3 straight away Premier League games, but they have also scored in all of those games. They created plenty of chances against Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday and there is enough encouragement from both teams in the final third to believe they will be able to create chances here too.

With both defences being far from watertight, I would not be surprised to see both teams score and the 1-1 is the score that concerns me the most. The three points are very important to both teams though and I think they can keep the recent home/away respective trends going for at least one more game and combine for three or more goals here.

Fantasy Star: Victor Camarasa- looks to be on penalty and free kick duties and is the main creative force for Cardiff City who have been very good in recent home games.

Alternative: Charlie Austin- Southampton have been poor defensively, but they create chances and Austin may get his opportunity having scored this past week against Tottenham Hotspur.


Manchester United v Fulham Pick: The last time Manchester United played Fulham David Moyes was in charge of the home team and the 2-2 draw is best remembered for what felt like a hundred crosses produced by Manchester United that day as they ran out of ideas.

It was a game played in February 2014 and it may have been the real point when the fans realised Moyes was not going to be able to turn things around as Manchester United manager after struggling throughout his time with the club.

Something similar could potentially happen to Jose Mourinho if Manchester United are not able to get back to winning ways in the Premier League this weekend. As much as there was an improved feeling about the performance in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal, draws with struggling Crystal Palace and Southampton have not been what was expected and failing to beat another team in the bottom six places will make it very difficult to get back into the top four race.

Fans at Old Trafford tend to be very loyal, but this match could really be a breaking point as injuries never seem to be too far away. Anthony Martial has been huge for Mourinho in recent weeks, but he could potentially miss out here and defensively Manchester United remain a real mess with big mistakes leading to teams being able to capitalise on chances against them.

Claudio Ranieri will be hoping his Fulham team are the latest to profit from the erratic nature of Manchester United's defending, but this is a team who have scored just 5 away goals all of this season. While the Italian is looking to make Fulham tougher to beat, they were defeated 2-0 at Chelsea last weekend which means they have lost 6 in a row on their travels in all competitions and they have conceded at least two goals in 5 of those losses.

In the last three Premier League games Manchester United have created some good chances and four goals in the last couple of games has to give them confidence. There is no doubt it is hard to trust Manchester United to win a game, let alone win by a comfortable margin, but they should be able to create chances and score goals against this Fulham team.

Losing Martial would be a blow, especially as the attack looked about as fluid as any stage this season in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal, but Manchester United can build on that. It might only be a reprieve for Mourinho whose time at Old Trafford is surely going to end sooner rather than later, but I will look for the home team to secure a relatively comfortable win on the day.

Fantasy Star: Marcus Rashford- I am fairly critical of Rashford the footballer, but he has been lively for Manchester United and may be the source of inspiration in this one. That is especially true if Anthony Martial is ruled out as expected.

Alternative: Chris Smalling- clean sheets have not been United's strength this season, but they have managed a couple at the end of last month at Old Trafford and Fulham have been goal-shy to say the least.


West Ham United v Crystal Palace Pick: Both West Ham United and Crystal Palace are searching for some consistency which would help them put some positive runs together and move clear of the relegation battle that is building up behind them. They were both involved in 3-1 results this past midweek, but West Ham United come into this with a victory behind them while Crystal Palace were beaten.

You would think home advantage is going to be very important for West Ham United considering they have won 2 of their last 3 games here and scored at least three times in both wins. Losing Marko Arnautovic is a blow, but there are still some quality players in the final third that can expose a Crystal Palace team who have lost 5 of their last 6 away games and who were exposed defensively by an opponent with ten men a few days ago.

Roy Hodgson is searching for answers, but Crystal Palace have work to do defensively against an opponent who have been scoring plenty of goals in recent games outside of the 0-4 home defeat to Manchester City.

Scoring goals has been something of a problem for Crystal Palace, but they are creating chances and the feeling is they can turn things around. It would be nice to have options in the forward areas, but Wilfried Zaha remains the main focal point of the attack and Roy Hodgson does need him to step up some in this fixture.

I do think there will be enough chances to see at least three goals shared out between West Ham United and Crystal Palace and recent fixtures between them have seen 6 of the last 8 finish with three or more goals scored. The home team are missing a few more quality attacking players than Crystal Palace, but they showed they can still score goals by burying six in their last couple of games.

The 1-1 could be the most dangerous scoreline to prevent three goals being shared out, but I will back the over here.

Fantasy Star: Javier Hernandez- it was Lucas Perez who took the headlines on Tuesday, but Hernandez got two at Newcastle United last week and can lead the way without Marko Arnautovic this week.

Alternative: Andros Townsend- Crystal Palace need goals and Wilfried Zaha is usually double marked meaning Andros Townsend could have more chances to add to the goal he got last Saturday.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: The big game in this round of Premier League fixtures comes from Stamford Bridge where two of the top four teams meet on Saturday afternoon.

The defending Champions Manchester City definitely come into this fixture in a lot better form than Chelsea who have lost 2 of their last 3 Premier League games to Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves.

However you can't deny that Manchester City don't look as good without Sergio Aguero as Gabriel Jesus has just hit a wall. It was the Jesus misses which had Pep Guardiola shaking his head and also was the main reason Manchester City didn't close out Watford before the home team rallied in the final ten minutes.

Aguero is a serious doubt for this fixture and he is the man who has scored four of the last five goals Manchester City have managed at Stamford Bridge so is clearly going to be a loss for Guardiola's men. The other goalscorer in that run was Kevin De Bruyne who scored the winning goal here last season and he is also looking like he could miss out on Saturday which may raise some doubts.

However I think Chelsea are lacking some confidence of late and they have perhaps been fortunate to beat Arsenal and draw with both Liverpool and Manchester United at Stamford Bridge this season. They couldn't ride out the storm at Wembley Stadium versus Tottenham Hotspur recently and Chelsea will really need Manchester City to be off their game if they are going to beat them.

It was Aguero's goals that helped Manchester City beat them in the Community Shield, but there are players in form for the visitors that can help make up for the Argentinian's expected absence. Leroy Sane and Riyad Mahrez ran rings around Watford and Raheem Sterling is well rested so I am not anticipating too many issues for Manchester City who should be able to expose the defensive problems Chelsea have been having of late.

Any team with the attacking mentality set out by Maurizio Sarri and with players like Eden Hazard and Willian have to be respected, but Chelsea may not really believe they can win a game like this one. They have lost three in a row to Manchester City and been beaten handily each time and I don't think you can make much of a case to oppose the defending Champions winning a fourth in a row against this opponent this weekend.

Even with the absences Manchester City look the more confident team and I will simply back them to win at Stamford Bridge where both Manchester United and Liverpool could have done when Chelsea were in much better form than they are right now.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- rested fully during the week and has been the goal-threat for Manchester City. He could replace Gabriel Jesus as the Number 9 in this one with Sergio Aguero expected to miss out.

Alternative: Aymeric Laporte- I fancy Manchester City here and they have found a way to keep clean sheets against Chelsea in three straight games.


Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: From next season seeing a late Saturday evening Premier League game is going to become the norm over the course of the campaign, but it is rare to see that kick off at the moment. However this weekend we have Leicester City hosting Tottenham Hotspur in that slot following the big game at Stamford Bridge and it may be a fixture that can provide plenty of entertainment of its own.

Being at home should mean we get a big effort from Leicester City as they try and knock off one of the top teams in the Premier League and give their own ambitions a boost. In recent weeks Leicester City have been difficult to beat, but they have struggled to turn draws into wins and I do worry about them going forward without Jamie Vardy.

At least they could be facing a Tottenham Hotspur defence that has not looked as strong as in recent years. Only 2 of the last 10 Tottenham Hotspur games have ended with a clean sheet for Spurs and they were fortunate to only concede the once to Southampton during the week.

Keeping the momentum going is how well Tottenham Hotspur have performed going forward and I think that is going to be important for them here. They have scored two or more goals in 6 of their last 8 away games in all competitions, but Tottenham Hotspur may need those goals considering they have conceded two or more goals in 3 of their last 5 on their travels too.

As mentioned, Leicester City have not exactly been firing in front of goal and could be without Vardy here, but games between these clubs have tended to lean towards the higher-scoring part of the spectrum. 6 of the last 7 League games hosted by Leicester City against Tottenham Hotspur have ended with three or more goals shared out and the exception was a 1-1 draw in the 2015/16 season.

For all my concerns about the lack of goals in the Leicester City team, they have scored in all but one League game here and I think the teams could provide some evening fireworks here.

Fantasy Star: Harry Kane- boring choice here but Kane has absolutely feasted on Leicester City over the last three games against them and can continue that here.

Alternative: James Maddison- Leicester City will be looking to take advantage of Tottenham Hotspur if they are distracted by the big Barcelona game coming up. With Jamie Vardy likely absent, James Maddison will be the key to unlock a porous Tottenham Hotspur defence.


Newcastle United v Wolves Pick: The live Sunday offering from the Premier League comes from St James' Park where Newcastle United and Wolves meeting for the first time since both clubs played in the Championship a couple of years ago.

Both teams will be looking at fixtures like this one and circling it as one they need to win if they are going to achieve the goals they have set for themselves this season.

The form guide points to Newcastle United as being the most likely winner of this fixture, but Wolves had a big win during the week and perhaps have deserved more than they have earned over the last month. Losses at Brighton and Cardiff City will have hurt, but Wolves should have some confidence restored from the way they bounced back against Chelsea during the week.

And as much as I am respecting the results Newcastle United have earned in recent games, it can be said they have been a little lucky at times. In home wins over Watford and Bournemouth, Newcastle United would have been beaten on another day and they are still struggling for consistent attacks.

Wolves have looked good going forward, but they are still missing a clinical finisher in the final third to put an exclamation mark on the good work they are producing up to that point. Raul Jimenez has been a good signing, but he isn't a finisher as such although he has been an integral part of a large majority of Wolves goals.

The Mexican did score on Wednesday though and he might be ready to put a strong run together in front of goal and I think Wolves can be backed on the Asian Handicap here. I had already circled that as a potential play prior to the win over Chelsea so I am hoping they haven't been given an overconfidence, although I look at Wolves as being the better team in the final third of both ends of the pitch and that can see them produce an important victory at St James' Park on Sunday.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- been amongst the goals of late and is a key part of Wolves attacks that have resulted in others scoring too.

Alternative: Solomon Rondon- the on loan striker has been scoring goals and is going to be the key for Newcastle United if they are going to upset their visitors.


Everton v Watford Pick: Better finishing from the Everton players would have seen the team pick up a lot more than the single point they have earned over the last ten days against Liverpool and Newcastle United in the Premier League. A bad error from Jordan Pickford cost Everton the chance of earning a result at Anfield with a goal conceded deep into injury time, while they should have beaten Newcastle United here last Wednesday.

Both teams will have had a chance to get some rest into the legs as soon as this game was moved to Monday Night Football and I do think Everton are worthy favourites.

They are creating chances and you have to believe they will begin to put more of the quality opportunities away in the coming weeks. It is important for Marco Silva to oversee a win ahead of the big test of visiting Manchester City in the Premier League next weekend, but Everton should be able to control things in this one and do that.

You can't draw a line through Watford who have been able to pick up some surprise results this season and showed they are fighting hard for the team in almost coming back to grab a surprise result against Manchester City last time out. However they are in a poor run of form which has seen the team beaten in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games including the last 3 in a row and Watford have a really poor record at Goodison Park over the years.

I don't think that will really bother a new group of players, but Watford don't tend to enjoy a lot of fortune here and I think they will need to ride out some rough patches if they are going to get a result against Everton. I know Newcastle United escaped with a point, but they did escape narrowly and I think Everton win this one with the likelihood they need two goals to do that.

Fantasy Star: Richarlison- playing his former club and scored last week. Richarlison can't be any more confident or motivated.

Alternative Star: Yerry Mina- Everton have been better defensively and the Colombian is a huge threat from set pieces.

MY PICKS: Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Wolves 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)

Midweek Football Picks 2015 (December 8-10)

I've never had a season picking games like the one I am having this year as I simply won't get any luck nor will I avoid the bad picks. Put those things together and there really isn't a lot of room for manoeuvre and the frustration is certainly high.

Let me just take this weekend as an example of some of the rubbish that seems to be coming my way.

So I had both Stoke City and Arsenal to win their games on the handicap on the shortlist, but was put off by the fact the former were in an early game against Manchester City who looked to be returning their key players, while the latter looked beat up through injuries.

Of course the Manchester City players that were expected back never materialised and Stoke City won easily, while Arsenal scored late to win by two clear goals as they would have needed to.


Instead I backed Southampton to beat Aston Villa essentially only for the latter to somehow survive the first half when they were battered from pillar to post and escape with a draw.

I back goals in games at Watford, West Brom and Everton where I looked for three to be shared out and in each of those games there were two goals scored... Forget the fact that there were enough chances for about a thousand goals that were missed this week, including Everton hitting the woodwork three times and you can see the trend.

It's bloody annoying because I know if I didn't expect goals that all of the strikers that were slightly off would have been slightly on and that little bit of luck has completely deserted me. It's embarrassing really and I wouldn't pay the slightest bit of attention to what I think is going to happen at the moment because invariably something comes up that sees the opposite occur.


The Champions League and Europa League are into Match Day 6 this week and there are big moments ahead for a number of teams. Of course the focus will be on the three English clubs who are teetering on the edge, notably Manchester United and Arsenal who have tough away assignments to negotiate if they are to reach the Second Round of the Champions League.

Chelsea have a bit more leeway in their game against Porto which is also being played at home, but Jose Mourinho's men are not exactly firing on all cylinders at the moment either.

The draw for the Knock Out Stage will be made next week on a Monday which seems strange, but perhaps it is to take away any focus from the Euro 2016 Finals draw which will be made on Saturday afternoon.


Galatasaray v Astana Pick: The chance to get into the Second Round of the Champions League might already be gone for both of these clubs, but there is still a decent prize to play for on Match Day 6. That is a place in the Europa League, but both Galatasaray and Astana won't look at that as a consolation and the chance to still be playing European football in the New Year is a big opportunity for both clubs.

It is Galatasaray who have the edge having earned a point more than Astana and now hosting the game in Istanbul. However, Astana have not played a competitive game since Match Day 5 and the 2-2 home draw with Benfica and that has allowed them to travel and prepare for this game in Turkey.

That might not be enough for the Kazakhstan club to get something from this game though and both of their away games have ended with defeats of at least two goals each time. Add in their 4-0 loss at Villarreal in the Europa League last season and you can see the mountain Astana have to climb to beat Galatasaray and steal the place in the Europa League.

The challenge is all the more difficult when you think Galatasaray have won 5 of their last 6 games in all competitions which includes coming from behind to beat Benfica 2-1 in the Champions League. Galatasaray's win over Benfica ended a run of 5 consecutive home games in the competition without a win, although the sides they have played have been of superior levels to Astana.

The onus is on the away team to make this a game as they have to win and it will be a big task considering the goals that Galatasaray have produced at home. I can see a situation where the home team is leading and able to pick off their visitors late in the game as Astana push forward to get back into this and Galatasaray can become the latest team to beat Astana by at least two goals at home.


Paris Saint-Germain v Shakhtar Donetsk Pick: Paris Saint-Germain are already through to the Last 16 of the Champions League and they know they will follow Real Madrid through. With this being a dead rubber, it is easy to suggest that Laurent Blanc will make a lot of changes, but the manager was talking about ending the campaign in style and I think they can do that.

While we would have all expected PSG and Read Madrid to make it through to the Second Round, Shakhtar Donetsk have still been a bit of a let down in my mind. I expected them to make it difficult for the two big teams in the Group but Shakhtar were crushed 0-3 at home by Paris Saint-Germain and were 0-4 down to Real Madrid before rallying in the second half and going down 3-4.

That will have disappointed the manager Mircea Lucescu who has blamed poor starts in games for Shakhtar's lack of success. Getting into the Europa League is still of high importance, but Shakhtar could afford to lose this game as long as Malmo do the same in Madrid where they take on Real at the same time.

It is difficult to see Shakhtar Donetsk getting more from this game than another Champions League away defeat. They have lost in Real Madrid and in Malmo without scoring a goal and Shakhtar Donetsk have only scored 2 goals in their last 9 away games in the Champions League if you dismiss a 0-7 win in BATE Borisov last season.

Paris Saint-Germain have looked to make this venue a fortress and they have made it clear they want to end the Group in style. That convinces me that they can win this game by a comfortable enough margin and Shakhtar Donetsk are given one more experience to show the difference between them and the very best in European football.


PSV Eindhoven v CSKA Moscow Pick: No matter what happens in the other game in the Group, things are very clear for PSV Eindhoven- win this game and they are into the Second Round of the Champions League against most expectations.

Now the layers have used that outcome as a reason to shorten the prices on a PSV Eindhoven win to an almost ridiculous price.

That isn't to say that I don't expect the home team to win the game though.

CSKA Moscow have been in terrible form and head into this fixture having failed to win any of their last 7 games and losing 6 of those, while they have scored just twice in that run. Add in the fact that CSKA Moscow have been terrible travellers in the Champions League where they have lost 9 of their last 11 games in the competition including both this season at Wolfsburg and Manchester United by the same 1-0 scoreline.

Confidence has to be an issue and I think PSV Eindhoven will take advantage with the home crowd firmly behind them. They have won their last 4 home games in a row and won both Champions League games here and I think it would be a huge surprise if they don't win tonight.

Value looks gone on the home win though as they have been heavily backed. Instead I think a small interest on them founding their success behind a solid defensive unit looks to be the call especially as CSKA Moscow have been struggling in front of goal and failed to score in both away games played in the Group.

PSV Eindhoven shut out Wolfsburg on the way to a 2-0 win and I will back them to win this one to nil.


Wolfsburg v Manchester United Pick: Louis Van Gaal may claim his team have been the better in every game they have played bar two away games in the Premier League, but Manchester United fans are not buying that. Another goalless draw at Old Trafford, this time against West Ham United, drew a poor reaction from the fans who decided to stay until the end at the weekend and boos were offered.

A draw might not be good enough for Manchester United to remain in the Champions League this week as I am expecting PSV Eindhoven to be too good for CSKA Moscow in the other game in the Group. That means Manchester United will have to match that result if they are to get through to the Second Round.

Getting a result at Wolfsburg won't be easy for Manchester United who lost in Eindhoven and only drew in Moscow, especially as Wolfsburg have been in some decent form at home. A late goal does mean Wolfsburg have lost 2 of their last 4 games here, but those came against Bayern Munich and Borussia Dortmund, while Wolfsburg have won both Group games in the Champions League at home.

The layers certainly are not under-estimating Wolfsburg who have been set as the favourites to beat Manchester United. However, I do have to say that Van Gaal's team have been a little more positive away from home with the additional space they are usually afforded and I can see Manchester United winning here.

Nothing is going to come easy though and there might be a few more goals here than many expect- I am expecting PSV Eindhoven to win their game and I expect that news will filter through to the pitch. One of these teams is likely to be pushing forward in the final fifteen minutes looking for a crucial goal that might be the difference between the Champions League and Europa League and I think both are capable of being on the scoreboard before that.

Both teams have scored in both of Manchester United's away games in the Champions League Group Stage and with that space will likely come chances so backing at least three goals to be scored in the fourth successive game between these clubs looks to be overpriced.


Roma v BATE Borisov Pick: One of the underperforming teams in European competition from Italy has to be Roma who have failed to really make an impact in the Champions League despite being Juventus' nearest challenger domestically. They can't have asked for much more than being asked to beat BATE Borisov at home to qualify for the Second Round, but Roma have just slipped a little in recent weeks which makes this dangerous.

In saying that, Roma are facing a BATE Borisov team that has lost 7 straight Group games away from home and all of those losses have come by at least two goals each.

Prior to the home loss to Atalanta, Roma had been playing very well at home although they are one of those teams I am never that comfortable backing to win a game with room to spare. That is especially the case when they play their home European games although Roma did crush CSKA Moscow 5-1 here last season.

That result and the way they have gone about their business in the Champions League this season makes me think they will be too good for BATE Borisov. The latter have lost their games with room to spare for the most part when facing the better teams in the Champions League and I will look for Roma to move into the Second Round behind a win by a couple of goals at least.


Chelsea v Porto Pick: You can only say it has been a baffling season for Chelsea who won the Premier League title last May and have since fallen apart in the defence of their title. Jose Mourinho has admitted that getting into the top four is going to be difficult now and Chelsea remind me very much of Manchester United under David Moyes.

Like Moyes, Mourinho has been unable to find the right blend in the Premier League and he also hasn't had a lot of luck go the way of his Chelsea team. Also like Moyes, Mourinho's team have produced their best results in the Champions League and Chelsea will be expecting to get through to the Second Round.

Performances have not been terrible in recent games and Chelsea will feel their luck is due to turn with some poor non-penalty decisions going against them. They will also know the pressure is on Porto who have to win this game assuming Dynamo Kiev will be too strong for Maccabi Tel Aviv who they host in the Ukraine and knowing Maccabi have yet to pick up a single point.

A draw would mean Chelsea and Dynamo Kiev will move into the Second Round so Porto have to strike the right balance to ensure they give themselves a chance to get through. That could mean Chelsea are able to hit Porto late on as they begin to chase the game and you can't ignore that Chelsea have won both home games in the Champions League.

Porto haven't lost too many recent games on their travels in the Champions League with just a single defeat from 8 away games in the competition. However this looks to be the kind of game where Chelsea can show their quality as they try and pick off their visitors and I think the edge has to be given to the home team.

I would have wanted nothing to do with Chelsea at odds on in this game as they would have likely have been if they had won the game against Bournemouth on Saturday. However Chelsea look much more appealing at odds against and I can see them finishing Porto off on the break when news comes through that Dynamo Kiev are winning and Porto need to win this game to get through to the Second Round.

Winning the Group would be a bonus for Jose Mourinho and might ease some pressure that has to be building thanks to results over the first three months of the season.


Dinamo Zagreb v Bayern Munich Pick: With a dead rubber like this one, it is a good idea to keep an eye on the team news especially from the Bayern Munich squad who are trying to bounce back from a 3-1 loss at Borussia Monchengladbach.

Even with the changes you would expect Bayern Munich to be too good for a Dinamo Zagreb team they outclassed at home. Dinamo Zagreb's win over Arsenal was a fantastic result, but the latter should not have lost that game and it is hard to see Bayern Munich faltering in that manner.

They have had some very poor results away from home in the Champions League in recent games which is another reason Pep Guardiola has to be looking for Bayern Munich to put another statement win down. I think that is a concern when looking later in the tournament and some big away games Bayern Munich will have to play, but they should be too strong for Dinamo Zagreb and I would expect the Bavarian giants to win this by a couple of goals.

Dinamo Zagreb have lost 6 of their last 8 home games in the Champions League Group Stage and 4 of those losses have come by at least two goals. I'd expect even a changed Bayern Munich team to match those results and put another strong away win in the Group Stage on the board.


Olympiacos v Arsenal Pick: This is a huge game for Arsene Wenger and his Arsenal side as they look to dig themselves out of a big hole in the Group and once again reach the Second Round of the Champions League. Finishing second in the Group has been an issue for the fans in the past, but this season it will be seen as a success as Arsenal look to avoid Manchester United's fate and end up in the Europa League.

Injuries are a big concern in the Arsenal squad ahead of a really busy Christmas period which is coming up, but they still have enough quality to get the job done in Greece. They can look to their 0-2 success at Monaco in the Second Round of the Champions League that followed a 1-3 home loss as a confidence booster to take into Match Day 6.

However, Olympiacos have plenty to hang their hat on with 11 wins in their last 14 Champions League home games including against some of the big names in European football like Manchester United, Juventus and Atletico Madrid. They have also beaten Arsenal three times at home in the last six seasons in the Champions League Group Stage so they shouldn't be worried about being able to do enough to get into the Last 16.

I can make a pretty good case for both teams, but I certainly think the layers have priced up Olympiacos with the knowledge that they can afford a narrow loss and still go through. That would be dangerous for Olympiacos who are trying to play their natural game, while Arsenal will have nothing to lose at some stage of the game and have the attacking players to do some damage.

Picking a winner might be difficult, but it does look a game that will likely see some spaces open up in the final twenty minutes with one team needing to push regardless of the score at that point.

The last two games in Greece between these teams has produced at least three goals and the last five overall have gone that way including earlier in the Group. There looks to be enough of an attacking threat and defensive vulnerabilities to think that can happen here and I will back at least three goals to be shared out.


Valencia v Lyon Pick: Gary Neville will take charge of Valencia for the first time after his surprise appointment last week. He watched Valencia battle back against Barcelona to draw 1-1 in La Liga on Saturday, but Neville's first challenge is to somehow help Valencia move into the Second Round of the Champions League.

Valencia really have to win this game and hope Gent are unable to beat Zenit St Petersburg at home at the same time if they are to make it through to the Second Round.

With the way Zenit St Petersburg have played in the Group that is possible, although the Russian team have won the section and have nothing to play for. Neville won't be worrying about that but will be preparing his Valencia side to beat Lyon who are out of European competition and who have been in poor form.

Lyon have lost 4 of their last 5 games in all competitions and have a big game against Paris Saint-Germain this weekend which might distract them. With Valencia winning 2 of their 3 home games in the Champions League you have to think the Spanish side will be too good for Lyon, especially as they have beaten Monaco 3-1 here in the Qualifiers already this season.

The recent form hasn't been productive for Valencia but they are unbeaten in 7 games at home in all competitions and I expect them to give Neville a winning start, although the former Manchester United right back might be joining his former team in the Europa League.

Unlike Manchester United, I can see Valencia at least winning their final game in the Champions League Group to give themselves a chance of remaining in this competition. I expect the home team win this by a couple of goals against a disinterested opponent.


Ajax v Molde Pick: The Europa League is a competition in which Ajax would like to progress but it looks a difficult task with the way the results have gone. Hoping Fenerbahce lose to Celtic at home looks a long shot but I expect Ajax to at least do their part and hope results go their way.

I am expecting Ajax to be far too good for Molde who have not had much competitive football with their domestic season completed. They were outclassed by Fenerbahce in a home loss a couple of weeks ago and Ajax were unfortunate not to win in Norway.

Home advantage hasn't exactly been the most positive thing for Ajax in European competition this season, but I do think they are the better team on the field. Ajax have been scoring plenty of goals here in recent games, albeit against domestic opposition, but Molde aren't one of the stronger teams in the Europe.

Molde might play for the draw to get to finish top of the Group, but I think Ajax will win this by a comfortable margin on Thursday.


Sion v Liverpool Pick: There is no doubting the draw would satisfy both managers if they were offered to it now as it would mean Sion are through to the Last 32 and Liverpool have won the Group and will be Seeded for that draw.

Jurgen Klopp has brought an experimental squad over to Switzerland for the game, but he has clearly put some serious stock in the Europa League. His Borussia Dortmund team enjoyed considerable success in Europe in recent years and Liverpool have responded to the new voice in the dressing room.

Liverpool are trying to bounce back from their disappointing 2-0 defeat at Newcastle United last Sunday and I expecting a reaction from them. The scenario around the game is hard to ignore, but if news comes through that Rubin Kazan are losing in the other game, Sion may just come out trying to win the Group.

Klopp's team have shown they can be very dangerous on the counter attack though and I think Liverpool find a way to win this game.


Napoli v Legia Warsaw Pick: The fact that qualification for the Last 32 has been secured does mean that Napoli will likely make some changes to their starting eleven with Roma set to visit here on Sunday.

However, Napoli have been dominant at home and I expect they will be focused having lost their last League game 3-2 at Bologna. Napoli have won 8 in a row at home and both Europa League games have ended with strong home wins.

Legia Warsaw have rarely been outclassed away from home in recent European games and they are coming into this with a win giving them a chance of moving into the Last 32 of the Europa League depending what happens in the other fixture in the Group.

However, that also means the onus is on them to get forward and Napoli may have a real chance to catch them on the counter attack a couple of times as the game wears on. With back to back 5-0 wins in Europe behind them, I am not anticipating Napoli get to those kind of margins as the attention will shift to the game with Roma.

I am expecting Napoli to strike late and win this one by a couple of goals though and will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Rapid Vienna v Dinamo Minsk Pick: Winning a Group in the Europa League looks certain to offer up an 'easier' draw in the Last 32 when you look at some of the names that will potentially be Seeded. It is no guarantee any team would receive that favourable draw, but Rapid Vienna will know the importance of winning this Group and that means surpassing the result Villarreal produce in Viktoria Plzen.

A draw is unlikely to be good enough for Rapid Vienna and they will want to put the pressure on Villarreal by getting into an early lead in this one. There is enough attacking potential in the team to make Rapid Vienna favourites to win the game, although they have been inconsistent of late.

That has not been the case at home though and Dinamo Minsk will do well to stay with Rapid Vienna having lost 3 away games in a row in the Europa League by at least two goal margins. A lack of goals has been a problem for Dinamo Minsk on their travels and I do think Rapid Vienna will be too good.

A fast start and the potential to dominate the chances should lead to a comfortable win for Rapid Vienna and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.


Tottenham Hotspur v Monaco Pick: With just one point needed to top the Group, Tottenham Hotspur are in a strong position to get back into the Knock Out Rounds of the Europa League. This competition may provide another avenue into the Champions League these days, but some of the English teams have been less than impressed about being involved, although Tottenham Hotspur have given the Group plenty of respect.

There will be some changes made to the starting eleven, but Mauricio Pochettino has admitted he will still play a strong team to build some momentum.

The pressure is all on Monaco who have to win this game and hope Anderlecht fail to win theirs against Qarabag at the same time. This isn't the same Monaco that reached the Champions League Quarter Final last season and I think the focus for the club is to get back into a position to qualify for that tournament having been knocked out in the Qualifiers this season.

As they increasingly chase the game, I can see Spurs finding a way to hit Monaco on the counter attack and find a way to get back to winning ways at White Hart Lane after their 3 game winning run was ended in a goalless draw with Chelsea.

MY PICKS: Galatasaray - 1 Asian Handicap @ 2.15 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Paris Saint-Germain - 1 Asian Handicap @ 1.95 Bet365 (2 Units)
PSV Eindhoven Win to Nil @ 3.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Wolfsburg-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.15 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Unit)
Roma - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea @ 2.05 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Olympiacos-Arsenal Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Valencia - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)
Ajax - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Liverpool @ 2.30 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Napoli - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Rapid Vienna - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.05 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur @ 2.10 Bet365 (1 Unit)

December Update: 3-7, - 6.20 Units (18 Units Staked, - 34.44% Yield)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)


Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)