Weekend Football Picks 2018 (December 8-10)

I've been away in the early portion of December and that has meant I have not really had the time to write down my thoughts for the Premier League games that have been played.

Missing two rounds of fixtures is what it is, but I have returned now and my selections can be read below as well as my Fantasy Football thoughts in what is a busy time of the season.

Fantasy players have to worry about rotation policies of managers especially with a huge amount of games crammed into a very small period of time through to the FA Cup Third Round. Injuries build up at this point of the season and you have to factor in the colder weather in the United Kingdom at this time of the year.


Bournemouth v Liverpool Pick: The quick turnaround in the Premier League means there are likely to be more rotations from managers, but Liverpool were able to rest key players on Wednesday in their win over Burnley.

It should mean the likes of Mohamed Salah and Roberto Firmino are available for this visit to the Vitality Stadium ahead of a vital game against Napoli in the Champions League during the week. The early kick off does give Jurgen Klopp the chance to play his strongest team as Liverpool look to move ahead of Manchester City at the top of the Premier League for a few hours at least.

While Liverpool have not been at their most convincing away from home, they have scored three times in back to back games at Watford and Burnley. The majority of the poorer performances have come in the Champions League and Liverpool should feel confident they can get the better of a Bournemouth team who just snapped a 4 game losing run in the Premier League.

Bournemouth started well but had to hold on in their 2-1 win over Huddersfield Town on Tuesday, while they have recently been beaten by Manchester United and Arsenal in League games here. The attacking mentality of Eddie Howe will always leave Bournemouth vulnerable against the better teams in the Premier League and it is no surprise that Chelsea, United, Arsenal and Manchester City have all scored at least twice against them already this season.

They have lost all of those games too and Bournemouth have conceded at least twice in each of their 3 home games against Liverpool since being promoted to the Premier League. The Cherries did recover from 1-3 down to beat Liverpool 4-3 in one of those games, but the other two fixtures here have ended in Liverpool wins and I think they can get the better of Bournemouth in this early Premier League fixture.

It should be a game featuring plenty of chances too and I will back The Reds to move to the top of the Premier League with a win in a game featuring two or more goals.

Fantasy Star: Mohamed Salah- the Egyptian should be well rested having been a substitute on Wednesday, while he has scored in 2 of the last 3 away Premier League games he has started.

Alternative: Xherdan Shaqiri- Bournemouth are a tough team, but they have lost to Arsenal and Manchester United here and Xherdan Shaqiri could playing further up the pitch if Sadio Mane is ruled out. He scored in 2 of the last 3 Liverpool League games.


Arsenal v Huddersfield Town Pick: With three League games in the space of a week it can be difficult to know when a team potentially hits a wall but Arsenal have momentum and I would be surprised if that happened to them here.

They don't have to worry about the Europa League game to be played during the week so Unai Emery can play as strong a team as he likes, although injuries are beginning to stretch the squad. Those are mainly in defensive areas and this Arsenal team have shown they can out-score opponents when feeling at their best.

Even keeping the defensive problems in mind, I am not sure Huddersfield Town are the best team to expose them. The Terriers have been in better form in recent weeks and they have not lost back to back away games in the Premier League since March, but a lack of goals continues to be a problem and I think they will find it tough to contain Arsenal here.

Huddersfield Town have forced draws at Everton and Burnley and won at Wolves this season so they should be respected. However they have conceded twice at Bournemouth during the week as they looked vulnerable defensively, while also conceding three goals in losses at Leicester City and Watford and this Arsenal team have enough in the final third to really hurt them here.

I am not sure Arsenal match the 5-0 win over Huddersfield Town from last season, but I think they win comfortably enough on the day and I will back them to cover the Asian Handicap.

Fantasy Star: Alexandre Lacazette- he may get the start having come off the bench in the last two games and scored at Old Trafford during the week.

Alternative: Henrikh Mkhitaryan- he has been a disappointment in recent games, but should have chances against an overmatched opponent when has shown his best for either Manchester United or Arsenal.


Burnley v Brighton Pick: Last season the defences came out on top in both Premier League games between Burnley and Brighton, but there is plenty to suggest the layers may have it wrong and that this could be a much more entertaining fixture.

Neither Burnley or Brighton are defending half as well as they were during the 2017/18 season and there should be chances for both teams in this one.

Glenn Murray's potential absence for Brighton could be a real blow, but Burnley have struggled to contain teams so I would expect the away team to come here and create chances. They have scored in their last 4 away games in the Premier League and the last two at Cardiff City and Huddersfield Town have produced at least three goals.

Goals have been flowing at Turf Moor too with the home team falling off the defensive standards they set last season. Burnley have conceded plenty of chances too so it hasn't been misfortune that has hurt the team and they have been involved in some high-scoring games here including against a shot-shy Newcastle United team.

Shane Duffy's suspension should help Burnley too, and I would not be surprised if both teams score in this one. There should be chances for that to happen and recent Burnley and Brighton home/away games respectively have produced plenty of goals and these two teams can surprise by doing the same here at a very big price.

Fantasy Star: Chris Wood- Burnley need goals and Chris Wood's returning to form may be their best avenue.

Alternative: Florin Andone- came on and scored for Brighton during the week and could lead the line if Glenn Murray is ruled out. Burnley have not defended that well so Andone should have chances.


Cardiff City v Southampton Pick: Two teams at the wrong end of the Premier League table will meet in a big game on Saturday and the layers believe it could be a fixture filled with tension and they are not expecting too many goals.

I agree that it will be tense as Cardiff City are under pressure to keep producing big performances at home during a time they are struggling for results on their travels. On the other side Southampton have to be playing with little confidence at the moment and the players will be trying to impress a new manager who may not get his methods across to the squad for a few weeks.

However it should be pointed out that the two teams have been producing decent football in the final third which has resulted in plenty of goals being scored. Cardiff City came from behind to beat Wolves and they have scored at least two goals in 3 of their last 4 home Premier League games while they have not been able to keep a clean sheet in that time.

Southampton have conceded at least three goals in 3 straight away Premier League games, but they have also scored in all of those games. They created plenty of chances against Tottenham Hotspur on Wednesday and there is enough encouragement from both teams in the final third to believe they will be able to create chances here too.

With both defences being far from watertight, I would not be surprised to see both teams score and the 1-1 is the score that concerns me the most. The three points are very important to both teams though and I think they can keep the recent home/away respective trends going for at least one more game and combine for three or more goals here.

Fantasy Star: Victor Camarasa- looks to be on penalty and free kick duties and is the main creative force for Cardiff City who have been very good in recent home games.

Alternative: Charlie Austin- Southampton have been poor defensively, but they create chances and Austin may get his opportunity having scored this past week against Tottenham Hotspur.


Manchester United v Fulham Pick: The last time Manchester United played Fulham David Moyes was in charge of the home team and the 2-2 draw is best remembered for what felt like a hundred crosses produced by Manchester United that day as they ran out of ideas.

It was a game played in February 2014 and it may have been the real point when the fans realised Moyes was not going to be able to turn things around as Manchester United manager after struggling throughout his time with the club.

Something similar could potentially happen to Jose Mourinho if Manchester United are not able to get back to winning ways in the Premier League this weekend. As much as there was an improved feeling about the performance in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal, draws with struggling Crystal Palace and Southampton have not been what was expected and failing to beat another team in the bottom six places will make it very difficult to get back into the top four race.

Fans at Old Trafford tend to be very loyal, but this match could really be a breaking point as injuries never seem to be too far away. Anthony Martial has been huge for Mourinho in recent weeks, but he could potentially miss out here and defensively Manchester United remain a real mess with big mistakes leading to teams being able to capitalise on chances against them.

Claudio Ranieri will be hoping his Fulham team are the latest to profit from the erratic nature of Manchester United's defending, but this is a team who have scored just 5 away goals all of this season. While the Italian is looking to make Fulham tougher to beat, they were defeated 2-0 at Chelsea last weekend which means they have lost 6 in a row on their travels in all competitions and they have conceded at least two goals in 5 of those losses.

In the last three Premier League games Manchester United have created some good chances and four goals in the last couple of games has to give them confidence. There is no doubt it is hard to trust Manchester United to win a game, let alone win by a comfortable margin, but they should be able to create chances and score goals against this Fulham team.

Losing Martial would be a blow, especially as the attack looked about as fluid as any stage this season in the 2-2 draw with Arsenal, but Manchester United can build on that. It might only be a reprieve for Mourinho whose time at Old Trafford is surely going to end sooner rather than later, but I will look for the home team to secure a relatively comfortable win on the day.

Fantasy Star: Marcus Rashford- I am fairly critical of Rashford the footballer, but he has been lively for Manchester United and may be the source of inspiration in this one. That is especially true if Anthony Martial is ruled out as expected.

Alternative: Chris Smalling- clean sheets have not been United's strength this season, but they have managed a couple at the end of last month at Old Trafford and Fulham have been goal-shy to say the least.


West Ham United v Crystal Palace Pick: Both West Ham United and Crystal Palace are searching for some consistency which would help them put some positive runs together and move clear of the relegation battle that is building up behind them. They were both involved in 3-1 results this past midweek, but West Ham United come into this with a victory behind them while Crystal Palace were beaten.

You would think home advantage is going to be very important for West Ham United considering they have won 2 of their last 3 games here and scored at least three times in both wins. Losing Marko Arnautovic is a blow, but there are still some quality players in the final third that can expose a Crystal Palace team who have lost 5 of their last 6 away games and who were exposed defensively by an opponent with ten men a few days ago.

Roy Hodgson is searching for answers, but Crystal Palace have work to do defensively against an opponent who have been scoring plenty of goals in recent games outside of the 0-4 home defeat to Manchester City.

Scoring goals has been something of a problem for Crystal Palace, but they are creating chances and the feeling is they can turn things around. It would be nice to have options in the forward areas, but Wilfried Zaha remains the main focal point of the attack and Roy Hodgson does need him to step up some in this fixture.

I do think there will be enough chances to see at least three goals shared out between West Ham United and Crystal Palace and recent fixtures between them have seen 6 of the last 8 finish with three or more goals scored. The home team are missing a few more quality attacking players than Crystal Palace, but they showed they can still score goals by burying six in their last couple of games.

The 1-1 could be the most dangerous scoreline to prevent three goals being shared out, but I will back the over here.

Fantasy Star: Javier Hernandez- it was Lucas Perez who took the headlines on Tuesday, but Hernandez got two at Newcastle United last week and can lead the way without Marko Arnautovic this week.

Alternative: Andros Townsend- Crystal Palace need goals and Wilfried Zaha is usually double marked meaning Andros Townsend could have more chances to add to the goal he got last Saturday.


Chelsea v Manchester City Pick: The big game in this round of Premier League fixtures comes from Stamford Bridge where two of the top four teams meet on Saturday afternoon.

The defending Champions Manchester City definitely come into this fixture in a lot better form than Chelsea who have lost 2 of their last 3 Premier League games to Tottenham Hotspur and Wolves.

However you can't deny that Manchester City don't look as good without Sergio Aguero as Gabriel Jesus has just hit a wall. It was the Jesus misses which had Pep Guardiola shaking his head and also was the main reason Manchester City didn't close out Watford before the home team rallied in the final ten minutes.

Aguero is a serious doubt for this fixture and he is the man who has scored four of the last five goals Manchester City have managed at Stamford Bridge so is clearly going to be a loss for Guardiola's men. The other goalscorer in that run was Kevin De Bruyne who scored the winning goal here last season and he is also looking like he could miss out on Saturday which may raise some doubts.

However I think Chelsea are lacking some confidence of late and they have perhaps been fortunate to beat Arsenal and draw with both Liverpool and Manchester United at Stamford Bridge this season. They couldn't ride out the storm at Wembley Stadium versus Tottenham Hotspur recently and Chelsea will really need Manchester City to be off their game if they are going to beat them.

It was Aguero's goals that helped Manchester City beat them in the Community Shield, but there are players in form for the visitors that can help make up for the Argentinian's expected absence. Leroy Sane and Riyad Mahrez ran rings around Watford and Raheem Sterling is well rested so I am not anticipating too many issues for Manchester City who should be able to expose the defensive problems Chelsea have been having of late.

Any team with the attacking mentality set out by Maurizio Sarri and with players like Eden Hazard and Willian have to be respected, but Chelsea may not really believe they can win a game like this one. They have lost three in a row to Manchester City and been beaten handily each time and I don't think you can make much of a case to oppose the defending Champions winning a fourth in a row against this opponent this weekend.

Even with the absences Manchester City look the more confident team and I will simply back them to win at Stamford Bridge where both Manchester United and Liverpool could have done when Chelsea were in much better form than they are right now.

Fantasy Star: Raheem Sterling- rested fully during the week and has been the goal-threat for Manchester City. He could replace Gabriel Jesus as the Number 9 in this one with Sergio Aguero expected to miss out.

Alternative: Aymeric Laporte- I fancy Manchester City here and they have found a way to keep clean sheets against Chelsea in three straight games.


Leicester City v Tottenham Hotspur Pick: From next season seeing a late Saturday evening Premier League game is going to become the norm over the course of the campaign, but it is rare to see that kick off at the moment. However this weekend we have Leicester City hosting Tottenham Hotspur in that slot following the big game at Stamford Bridge and it may be a fixture that can provide plenty of entertainment of its own.

Being at home should mean we get a big effort from Leicester City as they try and knock off one of the top teams in the Premier League and give their own ambitions a boost. In recent weeks Leicester City have been difficult to beat, but they have struggled to turn draws into wins and I do worry about them going forward without Jamie Vardy.

At least they could be facing a Tottenham Hotspur defence that has not looked as strong as in recent years. Only 2 of the last 10 Tottenham Hotspur games have ended with a clean sheet for Spurs and they were fortunate to only concede the once to Southampton during the week.

Keeping the momentum going is how well Tottenham Hotspur have performed going forward and I think that is going to be important for them here. They have scored two or more goals in 6 of their last 8 away games in all competitions, but Tottenham Hotspur may need those goals considering they have conceded two or more goals in 3 of their last 5 on their travels too.

As mentioned, Leicester City have not exactly been firing in front of goal and could be without Vardy here, but games between these clubs have tended to lean towards the higher-scoring part of the spectrum. 6 of the last 7 League games hosted by Leicester City against Tottenham Hotspur have ended with three or more goals shared out and the exception was a 1-1 draw in the 2015/16 season.

For all my concerns about the lack of goals in the Leicester City team, they have scored in all but one League game here and I think the teams could provide some evening fireworks here.

Fantasy Star: Harry Kane- boring choice here but Kane has absolutely feasted on Leicester City over the last three games against them and can continue that here.

Alternative: James Maddison- Leicester City will be looking to take advantage of Tottenham Hotspur if they are distracted by the big Barcelona game coming up. With Jamie Vardy likely absent, James Maddison will be the key to unlock a porous Tottenham Hotspur defence.


Newcastle United v Wolves Pick: The live Sunday offering from the Premier League comes from St James' Park where Newcastle United and Wolves meeting for the first time since both clubs played in the Championship a couple of years ago.

Both teams will be looking at fixtures like this one and circling it as one they need to win if they are going to achieve the goals they have set for themselves this season.

The form guide points to Newcastle United as being the most likely winner of this fixture, but Wolves had a big win during the week and perhaps have deserved more than they have earned over the last month. Losses at Brighton and Cardiff City will have hurt, but Wolves should have some confidence restored from the way they bounced back against Chelsea during the week.

And as much as I am respecting the results Newcastle United have earned in recent games, it can be said they have been a little lucky at times. In home wins over Watford and Bournemouth, Newcastle United would have been beaten on another day and they are still struggling for consistent attacks.

Wolves have looked good going forward, but they are still missing a clinical finisher in the final third to put an exclamation mark on the good work they are producing up to that point. Raul Jimenez has been a good signing, but he isn't a finisher as such although he has been an integral part of a large majority of Wolves goals.

The Mexican did score on Wednesday though and he might be ready to put a strong run together in front of goal and I think Wolves can be backed on the Asian Handicap here. I had already circled that as a potential play prior to the win over Chelsea so I am hoping they haven't been given an overconfidence, although I look at Wolves as being the better team in the final third of both ends of the pitch and that can see them produce an important victory at St James' Park on Sunday.

Fantasy Star: Raul Jimenez- been amongst the goals of late and is a key part of Wolves attacks that have resulted in others scoring too.

Alternative: Solomon Rondon- the on loan striker has been scoring goals and is going to be the key for Newcastle United if they are going to upset their visitors.


Everton v Watford Pick: Better finishing from the Everton players would have seen the team pick up a lot more than the single point they have earned over the last ten days against Liverpool and Newcastle United in the Premier League. A bad error from Jordan Pickford cost Everton the chance of earning a result at Anfield with a goal conceded deep into injury time, while they should have beaten Newcastle United here last Wednesday.

Both teams will have had a chance to get some rest into the legs as soon as this game was moved to Monday Night Football and I do think Everton are worthy favourites.

They are creating chances and you have to believe they will begin to put more of the quality opportunities away in the coming weeks. It is important for Marco Silva to oversee a win ahead of the big test of visiting Manchester City in the Premier League next weekend, but Everton should be able to control things in this one and do that.

You can't draw a line through Watford who have been able to pick up some surprise results this season and showed they are fighting hard for the team in almost coming back to grab a surprise result against Manchester City last time out. However they are in a poor run of form which has seen the team beaten in 4 of their last 5 Premier League games including the last 3 in a row and Watford have a really poor record at Goodison Park over the years.

I don't think that will really bother a new group of players, but Watford don't tend to enjoy a lot of fortune here and I think they will need to ride out some rough patches if they are going to get a result against Everton. I know Newcastle United escaped with a point, but they did escape narrowly and I think Everton win this one with the likelihood they need two goals to do that.

Fantasy Star: Richarlison- playing his former club and scored last week. Richarlison can't be any more confident or motivated.

Alternative Star: Yerry Mina- Everton have been better defensively and the Colombian is a huge threat from set pieces.

MY PICKS: Liverpool & Over 1.5 Goals @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Burnley-Brighton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.45 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Cardiff City-Southampton Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Manchester United - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
West Ham United-Crystal Palace Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City @ 2.00 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Leicester City-Tottenham Hotspur Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Boyle Sports (2 Units)
Wolves 0 Asian Handicap @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Everton & Over 1.5 Goals @ 2.20 Boyle Sports (2 Units)