College Football Week 14 Picks 2023- Championship Games (December 1-2)

With just one more week of the regular season to be played, it feels like the four teams that are going to take part in the College Football PlayOffs are almost set, regardless of how their Championship Games end.

Well, it is perhaps more reasonable to suggest that the Georgia Bulldogs and Michigan Wolverines will almost certainly be called up, while the winner of the Pac-12 Championship is a third team that will be playing for the chance to win a National Championship.

The fourth is perhaps more open- the Florida State Seminoles have control and finishing unbeaten would likely see them earn the invite, even without Jordan Travis at Quarter Back. However, any upset may open the door for the likes of the Ohio State Buckeyes and, potentially the Alabama Crimson Tide.

I do think that is going to be the biggest test for the College Football PlayOff Committee- what do they do if the Crimson Tide upset their current Number 1 Ranked Georgia Bulldogs in the SEC Championship Game? And what do they do if the Texas Longhorns win the Big 12 Championship and then hold a win over the SEC Champions, on the road no less.

So while it feels clear if all of those expected to win do so, things could get really messy with a couple of upsets.

In twelve months time it will all be a moot point with the expanded PlayOff and that will mean one or two teams will be able to force their way into the National Championship fight that may not be as deserving as they should be.

However, it perhaps a better situation than we have now where at least two schools are going to feel they deserved a chance to earn some in-season redemption by playing for the chance to win a National Championship.

New Mexico State Aggies @ Liberty Flames Pick: The Conference USA Championship Game will be hosted by unbeaten Liberty Flames (12-0) against the New Mexico State Aggies (10-3) on Friday evening. While some of the other unbeaten schools in College Football are playing for a spot in the National Championship PlayOff, the Flames are looking to earn a big Bowl Game by remaining unbeaten and getting the better of New Mexico State for a second time this season.

That is a major prize for Liberty and they have already made a bit of history by securing twelve wins in the regular season.

Having such an opportunity in front of them will increase some of the pressure on the Flames as they look to secure a Conference Championship, while they may also be facing a New Mexico State Aggies team that is much better than when they faced off in the regular season in early September.

Since that loss, the Aggies have won nine of ten games, while they also hold a win over the Auburn Tigers from the SEC and that was on the road to make it all the more impressive.

New Mexico State will be chasing a first Conference Championship in over forty years and they will feel they can make this a much more competitive affair than when losing by 16 points in September. That was also played at William Stadium, although the margin could have been much wider when you think of the discrepancy in yards gained between the teams.

Controlling the line of scrimmage is going to be key when the Aggies have the ball- their Offensive Line have been opening up holes for big running plays, but the Liberty Defensive Line has been stout all season. Credit where it is due, New Mexico State were able to put up 7.1 yards per carry in the loss to the Liberty Flames in the regular season and they will certainly believe they can find the creases in this one.

It was the big plays that gave New Mexico State a chance, but the turnovers killed them in that game and they will have to be a lot cleaner in this one. Dual-threat Quarter Back Diego Pavia was guilty of throwing two Interceptions in that defeat in September and he is going to be facing a Liberty Secondary which has continued to make those plays through the air.

In recent games, the Aggies have found a decent Offensive balance, but they will also be aware that they are facing an effective Liberty Defense.

Running the ball to open up the passing lanes will also be a game plan for the Liberty Flames, who have also ripped off big plays on the ground throughout this season. And like the other side of the ball, the Flames Offensive Line will know they are facing a New Mexico State Defensive Line which has been able to clamp down on the run.

However, much like the other side of the ball, the Liberty Flames will be encouraged by the fact they produced 250 rushing yards in the win over New Mexico State in the regular season. Those came at 4.8 yards per carry and the Flames were also able to produce 26 First Downs as they wore down the Aggies on the ground.

Kaidon Salter has been very effective as a runner or as a passer from the Quarter Back position and he had 276 passing yards in the win over the Aggies. In recent games, the Liberty Flames have really been using Salter's legs, but he has been happy throwing the ball at home and he will give the Flames a balance from the Offensive side of the ball.

As with any game, turnovers are going to be very important in this game.

Both Quarter Backs will make big plays, but taking care of the ball will be key to the outcome of the Conference USA Championship Game and it may need a late Offensive/Defensive effort to secure a cover of this line for either team.

You have to give the edge to the Flames who have not only won all twelve games this season, but ten of those have been by double digits. Jerry Kill and the Aggies have been looking strong, but those losses will perhaps mean coming into this game with a bit more doubt compared with the hosts, while the big win secured by Liberty in the regular season has to give them another mental edge.

In a tight game, those fine margins can make the difference and Liberty may just make one or two more plays on the Defensive side of the ball that helps them secure an unbeaten season.

Washington Huskies vs Oregon Ducks Pick: The Pac-12 has broken apart and next season there are only two schools that are officially part of this Conference after a large majority headed to other Conferences. For now, this is the last Pac-12 Championship Game, and perhaps the last ever depending on what the Oregon State Beavers and Washington State Cougars decide to do.

It might be a Conference ending on a high when the Championship Game is played in Las Vegas on Friday evening with so much on the line for both teams involved.

The Washington Huskies (12-0) completed an unbeaten season and winning the Pac-12 Championship will mean earning a spot in the College Football PlayOffs. They face the Oregon Ducks (11-1) whose sole defeat was to the Huskies in a very tight, competitive game played on the road, and Oregon have been impressive the Committee to the point that they are set as the current Number 5 team in the nation.

This almost certainly suggests the Ducks will earn a top four place if they can earn redemption and beat the Huskies in the Pac-12 Championship Game and so there could not be any more to play for as the teams meet in Sin City.

Some will be surprised that the Oregon Ducks are such big favourites- the public are very much on the side of the underdog and must be wondering why an unbeaten team like the Huskies are being given as many points as they are.

The main reasoning seems to be that the Ducks have only gotten stronger as the regular season has wound down, while the Washington Huskies have found wins harder and harder to come by. The Huskies have won their last two games by a combined 5 points and merely looking at how the two teams have dealt with recent common opponents will show a stark difference.

However, Football does not work that way and ultimately the Oregon Ducks will need to prove they are the better team on the field. There will still be some regret about the way they were beaten by the Huskies in the regular season after Oregon have earned over 100 yards more than Washington, had 7 more First Downs, dominated the time of possession and also won the turnover battle.

With all that in mind, it is actually quite hard to understand how Oregon lost that game and so they will have a big point to prove on Friday.

Bo Nix versus Michael Penix Jr at the Quarter Back positions will provide the sub-plot with both leading the way as far as the Heisman Trophy is concerned. It was Penix Jr who threw four Touchdown passes in the win over Oregon and was declared the leading contender for that coveted prize, but Box Nix has looked better and better in each passing week and the dominant wins secured by Oregon have pushed him to the front of the line.

The winner of this game may go a long way to securing the Heisman Trophy and Oregon will be very confident in their Quarter Back.

Box Nix had 337 passing yards with 2 Touchdowns in the loss to Washington and he is likely to have another strong day behind this Oregon Offensive Line that has offered him plenty of time in the pocket. The Ducks should be able to establish the run to ensure there is a balance to their Offensive output, and Bo Nix should be able to exploit one or two holes in the Washington Secondary.

He avoided turnovers in the regular season, but Nix has to be aware of the fact the Huskies have been very quick to get to the ball in passing situations over the last several games. Turnovers are going to play a huge part in this Championship Game and that has to be the one concern, even with Bo Nix playing at a very high level.

The expectation is that Bo Nix and the Oregon Offensive unit will be able to replicate their successes from the regular season game, especially as a neutral setting should make it 'easier' too.

It is perhaps tougher to know what to expect from Washington considering there has been a drop in their levels in recent outings. Head Coach Kalen DeBoer has spoken about the Huskies getting healthier at the right time and Jalen McMillan will be playing in this one having missed much of the regular season after securing over 1000 Receiving yards in 2022.

He will give Michael Penix Jr another threat and that may be crucial if the Huskies have trouble establishing the run in this game. They did manage to produce 99 yards on the ground in the regular season game against Oregon, but in recent games the Offensive Line are averaging just 112 rushing yards per game at 3.8 yards per carry.

Facing up to this Oregon Defensive Line may be a tough test for Washington, which means leaning on the Michael Penix Jr arm even more. The Quarter Back will have time to make his throws considering the protection he has been given by the Offensive Line and with the Oregon pass rush not as effective as hoped, while Penix Jr will recognise that there are one or two holes in the Ducks Secondary that can be exploited by his talented Receiving corps.

Both teams will feel they can move the ball with some consistency, although the more balanced Oregon Offensive unit deserves an edge.

Motivation will be high in the Oregon camp to earn revenge and they will feel they are the superior team compared with Washington, despite the loss in the regular season. It was a game the Ducks will feel they let slip, rather than one that Washington won, and the neutral setting should aid Oregon as they look for revenge and a return to the College Football PlayOff.

The feeling is that they are the better team and the Defensive unit may step up and make a late play that gives Oregon's Offensive unit an extra possession that enables them to cover this spread. Opposing the public is a bonus, while the Ducks have a strong 3-0-1 record against the spread when facing Ranked teams this season.

Washington are not to be dismissed lightly and they will be highly motivated by the size of this line against them. Being in Las Vegas will certainly mean the players are well aware that the oddsmakers have little belief in them and that should mean a strong Huskies effort is put on the board.

However, that may still not be enough and Oregon can secure a top four Ranking at the end of Championship Week thanks to a dominant Pac-12 Championship Game win.

Texas Longhorns vs Oklahoma State Cowboys Pick: They would clearly love to troll the Big 12 on their way out of the Conference if the final regular season is anything to go by, while the Texas Longhorns (11-1) still have faint hopes of earning a spot in the College Football PlayOff.

The Dallas Cowboys played on Thursday Night Football and that means the Big 12 Championship Game can be played in their Stadium on Saturday, although there will be a team called the Cowboys on the field. The Texas Longhorns go into the game as big favourites when facing the Oklahoma State Cowboys (9-3), but the underdog have already upset SEC bound Oklahoma in the regular season and would love to do the same to Texas, while ending any PlayOff hopes that the Longhorns have.

It is a long shot for Texas to make the top four after being handed a Number 7 Ranking this week, which puts them behind the Oregon Ducks and Ohio State Buckeyes. The Pac-12 Champion will likely have secured their PlayOff spot on Friday, so Texas are going to need either Georgia or Florida State to falter in Championship Games played later on Saturday.

Even then there is no guarantee they will be invited in and all Texas can do is make sure they are a one-loss Big 12 Champion and see if that is going to be enough.

Head Coach Steve Sarkisian has admitted that his school will be able to speak more about their potential for being a College Football PlayOff team at the end of Championship Week and that it will only matter if Texas are able to win this game.

You have to make them significant favourites to do that against an Oklahoma State team that were embarrassed by the UCF Knights just three weeks ago. The Cowboys have needed big second half efforts to beat the Houston Cougars and BYU Cougars since that loss to the Knights, but that is less impressive when you think those two teams are 4-14 in Conference play this season.

However, the Cowboys did beat the Oklahoma Sooners and also hold a good looking win over the Kansas State Wildcats so will have to be afforded plenty of respect. The Offensive Line has been strong for much of the season, although it may be tougher for the Cowboys to establish the run against this Longhorns Defensive Line.

Even then, Alan Bowman has thrown for over 300 passing yards in back to back games and there have been some holes in the Texas Secondary that could be exploited. He will have his numbers, but an inability to run the ball with a lot of consistency does put pressure on Alan Bowman and unfortunately for the Cowboys, that has led to one too many Interceptions.

Turnovers could be a problem against the Longhorns who may bend in the passing game, but who have players capable of stepping in front of a thrown ball and taking it the other way. If the Longhorns can earn those extra possessions in this Big 12 Championship Game, Texas have a very good chance of recording a dominant win that may be used to impress the PlayOff Committee if other results have fallen their way.

While there are some questions about how exactly the Cowboys are going to look Offensively, the Longhorns should be balanced and moving the ball with authority for much of the Big 12 Championship Game.

They can run the ball against this Cowboys Defensive Line, while the Oklahoma State Secondary has struggled to make stops too. Unlike the Texas Longhorns, the Cowboys are not being able to turn the ball over nearly as effectively, while Quinn Ewers has limited his mistakes at Quarter Back compared with Alan Bowman.

Any turnovers could make it very difficult for Texas to cover, but they are going to be focused and looking to make a statement to a Conference they are leaving. Being able to do with the Championship trophy would be exactly what the fans would have hoped before the season and the Longhorns may end up pulling away for a big win in this Big 12 Championship Game.

Georgia Bulldogs vs Alabama Crimson Tide Pick: The two time defending National Champions are hoping to push their winning run onto thirty games and the Georgia Bulldogs (12-0) are going to have a massive home support with this game taking place in Atlanta.

In front of them is a familiar rival after the Alabama Crimson Tide (11-1) kept their faint hopes alive of playing the College Football PlayOff. The Crimson Tide needed a miraculous Fourth Down Touchdown pass to be completed in beating the Auburn Tigers in Rivalry Week, although the Number 8 Ranked Alabama are going to need to win this SEC Championship to impress the Committee.

Some may feel that is going to be enough for Alabama to leap a number of other teams, perahps even the Oregon Ducks who are playing in the Pac-12 Championship Game on Friday. Most expect a win for the Ducks to take them into the top four, but an Alabama win will really put the cat amongst the pigeons and the PlayOff picture would suddenly become very, very murky indeed.

Nick Saban is not going to be thinking about that and the players should be focused on trying to earn an upset over the Georgia Bulldogs, who crushed the LSU Tigers to win the SEC Championship last season. They did lose to Alabama two years ago, but then earned the best possible revenge by beating the Crimson Tide in the National Championship Game.

After doing that again last season, the Georgia Bulldogs have been considered the best team in College Football despite some serious talent leaving for the NFL. However, it has to be stated that they have won games all season without ever looking as dominant as the last two editions and so there is something for Georgia to prove when entering the SEC Championship Game.

Big wins over the Tennessee Volunteers and Missouri Tigers have been impressive though and Georgia are facing an Alabama team that are also not quite up to the level we have come to expect from a Nick Saban team in College Football.

A key for the Bulldogs will be the Offensive Line who have been opening some big running lanes and who will have been encouraged by some of the rushes that the Auburn Tigers were able to produce against Alabama in Week 13.

Carson Beck's life at Quarter Back would become much more manageable if the Bulldogs are ripping off some big gains on the ground and he has been careful with the ball when he has dropped back to throw. That will need to be the case against this Alabama Secondary, which has closed the regular season in good form, although the Georgia Bulldogs have to be confident in their ability to move the chains.

It could become a battle of field positions and the line of scrimmage looks very important on the other side of the ball too. For much of the season the Bulldogs Defensive Lin have clamped down on the run, but there has been one or two more holes up front than earlier on and this is going to be very encouraging for the upset-minded Crimson Tide.

Like Georgia, the Alabama Crimson Tide Offensive Line have been able to open some big holes up front and it will be important to keep Jalen Milroe in front of the chains, even if the Quarter Back has shown improved poise in each passing week of the regular season.

Throwing the ball against the Bulldogs Secondary will be tough, but it is much more manageable from short yardage positions and that has to be the aim for the Crimson Tide. Jalen Milroe has been given solid protection by the Offensive Line, which has also improved as the season has progressed, and it makes this SEC Championship Game fascinating viewing.

Alabama are simply not used to being set as the underdog, and they have a decent covering record when given points under their current Head Coach. However, those covers have all be in outright upset wins, and the Crimson Tide have suffered some blow out losses in the games where they have failed to make the points count.

The last three times the Crimson Tide have been given points they have been playing the Georgi Bulldogs and the first two were won by Alabama. However, the most recent in the National Championship Game in January 2022 ended in Georgia winning by 15 points and the narrow lean has to be with the unbeaten Bulldogs.

Nothing will come easily for either team, but the Bulldogs have looked stronger down the stretch with Brock Bowers back and expected to play in this one. His play-making skills in the passing game could end up making the difference and the Georgia Bulldogs can underline their position as the top Ranked team in College Football by ending Alabama's hopes of sneaking into the top four.

Iowa Hawkeyes vs Michigan Wolverines Pick: Most of the fans may feel the hard work has been completed after the Michigan Wolverines (12-0) got the better of the Ohio State Buckeyes and won the Big Ten East Division. Head Coach Jim Harbaugh is back for the Championship Game and the Wolverines are almost certainly going to be playing in the College Football PlayOff again.

However, the Head Coach has made it clear that Week 13 was the first of four steps he wants his Michigan team to take this season.

They have won the Division, but the next step is winning the Conference Championship Game before earning a spot in the National Championship Game for the first time under Harbaugh's guidance. Winning this game would mean the Michigan Wolverines are almost certainly going to hold a top two Ranking for the PlayOff and that means they are likely going to be favourites to earn a trip to Houston in early January.

Overlooking the Iowa Hawkeyes (10-2) would be a mistake, especially as the Hawkeyes have won four in a row since their controversial loss to the Minnesota Golden Gophers.

All credit has to be given to the Hawkeyes Defensive unit for pushing the team into the Big Ten Championship Game and it has been such a struggle on the other side of the ball that it has been announced that Brian Ferentz will not continue as Offensive Co-Ordinator.

The Hawkeyes have averaged just 18 points per game this season, which makes it incredibly difficult to believe they have won ten games, although they have not really faced too many opponents like Michigan. One they did face that could offer Wolverines some game tape to analyse is when the Hawkeyes were blown out by the Penn State Nittany Lions in September.

With all that in mind, it is very hard to know how the Hawkeyes plan on moving the ball with any kind of consistency in this one. The Offensive Line have not exactly been dominating and now have to face a Michigan Defensive Line that has been stout up front all season, while Deacon Hill has not really thrived at Quarter Back.

Managing the game might be the best Iowa can ask from Deacon Hill and avoiding mistakes may at least allow the Hawkeyes to play the field position game and perhaps try and force mistakes from the Michigan Wolverines.

The one positive for the Hawkeyes is that the Michigan Wolverines have been a little inconsistent Offensively over their last three games as they have faced the best the Big Ten East can offer. For all of the lack of power that Iowa have Offensively, they do run out a very good Defensive unit and will be hoping they can contain Michigan for long enough to give their team a chance of earning the upset.

A problem for the Hawkeyes is that their Defense could be run out on the field for long enough to just lose concentration and have fatigue build up. That was the case when they played the Nittany Lions, who had the ball for 45 minutes in their win over the Hawkeyes, and who scored 21 of their 31 points in the second half.

Blake Corum will likely be asked to bang his head against the brick wall of the Hawkeyes Defensive Line until it cracks and the Wolverines are not going to ask too much from JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back. JJ McCarthy has not put up big numbers in recent outings, but he has managed the game for the Wolverines and the expectation is that Michigan will pull away in the second half as they move forward into the College Football PlayOff.

These schools met in the Big Ten Championship Game two years ago and Michigan crushed Iowa by 38 points.

Simply getting to 30 points might be enough to cover with the Hawkeyes not expected to have much Offensive success in this one and the Michigan Wolverines can put an exclamation on this regular season with a big win.

Florida State Seminoles vs Louisville Cardinals Pick: The top two teams are expected to remain unbeaten at the end of Championship Week and the public are convinced that the Florida State Seminoles (12-0) will be able to do the same in the ACC Championship Game being played on Saturday evening.

They are facing the Louisville Cardinals (10-2) who were upset by the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 13 on the same day that the Seminoles were getting the better of the Florida Gators in their first full game without Jordan Travis at Quarter Back.

All credit has to be given to the Seminoles for battling through and the College Football PlayOff Committee looks to be giving them enough respect to believe they earn an opportunity to compete for a National Championship by remaining unbeaten.

Tate Rodemaker has taken over at Quarter Back, but he only needed to give the Seminoles 134 passing yards last week in the win over the Gators. It was the Seminoles Offensive Line and running game that powered them on this side of the ball, while the Defense picked up an Interception and did just enough to keep Florida at arm's length.

There should be more opportunities for Rodemaker to impress with his arm in this one as he faces the Louisville Defensive unit that has not been at the same level in recent outings as they have produced for much of the season. Even then, the Seminoles cannot expect to have an easy time running the ball against the Cardinals Defensive Line and that will mean there is some pressure on Tate Rodemaker to make the throws needed.

The Quarter Back will likely face some pressure up front from the pass rush, but the Louisville Secondary is having some issues stopping the pass. That should aid the Seminoles backup, but it will still be a tough spot for Tate Rodemaker and that may offer the Cardinals an opportunity to earn the upset.

Much will depend on how effective the Louisville Offense can be against what has been a very good Florida State Defensive unit.

Running the ball and keeping the team in front of the chains will be the game plan for the Cardinals, but that is going to be challenging enough for Louisville. Jawhar Jordan has been having a stellar year running the ball for the Cardinals and he is going to be the player that Louisville need to get going if they are going to win the game and make things that much more comfortable for Jack Plummer at Quarter Back.

Jack Plummer has been guilty of some poor decisions when throwing the ball down the stretch and it is very important that he does not turn the ball over in this one. The Seminoles Secondary have been able to make big plays on the ball, but Plummer will have an easier day in the office if his team are in front of the chains and he is not pressured into throwing further down the field.

Being behind the chains would also mean having to face a very effective Florida State pass rush as the Defense looks to step up and make the plays for a team missing Jordan Travis.

The public are very much behind Florida State and probably cannot believe how short the line is for the game- however, the sharp money looks to be coming down to back the underdog and the spread shrinking is a real indication of that.

Louisville have a 1-0 record against the spread when playing after a loss this season and they are 1-0 against the spread when set as the underdog. After watching the Rivalry Week games, you can understand why the casual fan will not want any part of the Cardinals, but the Defensive unit can come out with a point to prove and they can limit Tate Rodemaker and the Florida State Offensive unit.

This should be a game that goes right down to the wire, but the Cardinals can be backed with the points as they perhaps throw a real spanner into the College Football PlayOff picture with a victory in Charlotte.

MY PICKS: Liberty Flames - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Oregon Ducks - 8.5 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Texas Longhorns - 14.5 Points @ 1.83 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Georgia Bulldogs - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

Michigan Wolverines - 21.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Louisville Cardinals + 1.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 13: 8-5, + 1.90 Units (13 Units Staked, + 14.62% Yield)

Week 12: 6-4, + 1.25 Units (10 Units Staked, + 12.50% Yield)

Week 11: 5-6, - 1.48 Units (11 Units Staked, - 13.45% Yield)

Week 10: 5-8-1, - 4.40 Units (14 Units Staked, - 31.43% Yield)

Week 9: 3-7, - 4.27 Units (10 Units Staked, - 42.70% Yield)

Week 8: 3-6, - 3.44 Units (9 Units Staked, - 38.22% Yield)

Week 7: 4-7-1, - 3.47 Units (12 Units Staked, - 28.92% Yield)

Week 6: 5-6, - 1.63 Units (11 Units Staked, - 14.82% Yield)

Week 5: 6-3, + 2.64 Units (9 Units Staked, + 29.33% Yield)

Week 4: 3-5-2, - 2.33 Units (10 Units Staked, - 23.30% Yield)

Week 3: 4-7, - 3.33 Units (11 Units Staked, - 30.27% Yield)

College Football Week 14 Picks 2017 (December 1-2)

The College Football regular season has ended for most teams in the nation, but there are some huge games with major implications to come in Week 14 as the Conference Championship Games are played.

That leaves a lot on the line for the teams competing, but also for Nick Saban and the Alabama Crimson Tide who are going to be watching the SEC Championship Game at home after losing in the Iron Bowl in Week 13.

No one has secured a College Football Play Off berth yet and those top four places will be decided over these two days in early December.

And for a number of teams competing there is everything on the line for this one game left.

Some issues are easier to understand than others- the SEC Champion will be decided between the Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs and the winner will be into the Play Off. Also the ACC Champions is decided in a straight game between the Clemson Tigers and Miami Hurricanes with the winner likely confirmed as one of the top four next week.

However the Big Ten Championship Game and the Big 12 Championship Game has plenty on the line.

Wins for Wisconsin and Oklahoma might be the easiest path for the Committee to run as both teams would then complete the top four without much fuss. It is if one, or God forbid, both teams were to lose to the Ohio State Buckeyes and TCU Horned Frogs in their Championship Games.

A Wisconsin loss would likely open the door for the Alabama Crimson Tide to finish in the top four as long as Oklahoma win. The same can be said if the Sooners were to lose and the Badgers were to win, but wins for Ohio State and TCU will really see the Committee tested having put so much stock into head to head games.

Why? Because Oklahoma beat Ohio State and both would then have two losses on the schedule, but the Buckeyes would be Big Ten Champions and the Sooners would not.

Maybe in that case TCU would overtake both teams having avenged one of their two losses from the regular season and becoming Big 12 Champions.

It is messier still when you think where Clemson could potentially stand if they were to lose to Miami, yet hold a win over the potential SEC Champion Auburn.


Trust me when I say the Committee would likely love to see the top four teams win this weekend, but at worst only see one of them lose. Otherwise there are going to be some big decisions to be made and plenty of explaining to be done afterwards!

Now onto the Week 14 Picks as the Championship Games take centre stage.


USC Trojans vs Stanford Cardinal Pick: The College Football Play Off final four is going to be decided at the end of this week's Championship Games, but the Pac-12 looks to be one of the Power 5 Conferences who will be looking through the window while the others likely have a representative in the Play Off.

It should have been the USC Trojans who had a chance to represent the Pac-12, but the losses to the Washington State Cougars and the Notre Dame Fighting Irish have not looked any better during the course of the season. Four straight wins since the loss to the Fighting Irish at least has given the Trojans a chance to win the Conference, which is a big achievement, and Sam Darnold will know there are plenty on eyes on him with many considering him a high NFL Draft Pick at Quarter Back.

While the Trojans have not surprised anyone by getting into the Pac-12 Championship Game, the Stanford Cardinal are a more surprising entrant. They have won three games in a row with the key one being the upset of the Washington Huskies and last week they earned another upset when beating the Notre Dame Fighting Irish.

That should mean Stanford are comfortable in their position as the dogs in the Pac-12 Championship Game but they will have to show what they have learned from the blow out loss to the USC Trojans back in September. This game is at least played on neutral field, but that also meant I was a little surprised that the Trojans are being asked to cover the same number as they were in their home win.

Both teams have improved since that early meeting, but I do think the Trojans are still the better of the two and I was expecting this line to be a little higher for them to cover.

Stanford do have a new Quarter Back starting now instead of Keller Chryst and KJ Costello has played well since coming into the line up. He has been well backed by a strong running game, but that is where Costello could have to shoulder more of the game if Bryce Love is still not at 100% at running back.

Love is also going against a USC Defensive Line that have shown improvement in recent games compared to the rest of the season. While they have not played a team who can run the ball as well as Stanford in recent games, USC have held them to 3.9 yards per carry over the last three and being able to keep Love in some kind of check will put the Trojans in a decent position.

Costello should be able to make some plays against the Trojans Secondary who have given up some big numbers, but he will have to make sure he looks after the ball with turnovers proving to be something the Trojans thrive upon. He will have to be aware of the pressure USC get up front with their pass rush though, especially if throwing from third and long and obvious passing downs. That pressure could force Costello into mistakes he hasn't been making, but this will be a big challenge for him.

Getting the better of Sam Darnold would certainly raise the reputation of Costello, but the USC Quarter Back has been playing well this season and showing why he could be a Number 1 Draft Pick in the NFL. Darnold has sparked a strong passing game for the Trojans, but his life could be made even easier by the way the Trojans have been able to run the ball for much of the season.

Ronald Jones has taken over as the Number 1 Running Back for the USC Trojans and there has been no step back from the way they have been able to go behind this Offensive Line. I would expect USC to win their battles at the line of scrimmage against a Stanford Defensive Line which has not been able to stop the run consistently this season and keeping USC in manageable downs and distance will only make it more comfortable for Darnold to make his plays.

USC snapped a run of three consecutive failures to cover against Stanford with their blow out win in September and I think they can work their way to a cover again. My concern is that USC have not played well on neutral sites recently with a 0-5 record against the spread, but I will look for Darnold to produce a show and help the Trojans win the Pac-12 Championship with a win by around a Touchdown.


Memphis Tigers @ UCF Knights Pick: The American Athletic Conference will see the Memphis Tigers and the UCF Knights meet for the second time this season. On the first occasion it was the UCF Knights who dominated the Tigers and they produced a big win, but since then the Memphis Tigers have won seven straight games as they take aim at the Knights again.

The challenge remains the same though as the UCF Knights are still unbeaten having won a wild one against the South Florida Bulls last week to earn their spot in the Championship Game. That means a big New Year's Day Bowl is on the line for the Knights, although the players have to remain focused despite Head Coach being linked with the vacant job at the Nebraska Cornhuskers.

Frost has long ties with the Cornhuskers and he has not hidden his pride at being linked with the vacant job. However there is still plenty to gain at the Knights and Frost will be reminding his players of that after guiding this school back to relevance after taking over a team that finished 0-12 the season before he came in as Head Coach.

UCF have home advantage in the Championship Game which has to give them more confidence, but the Knights have to return to the Defensive performances that have helped them get to this position. In recent games they have struggled a little more to stop teams and the Memphis Tigers Offensive unit is capable of putting up some big numbers.

Riley Ferguson has played really well since being picked off three times in the loss to the UCF Knights and he will be encouraged by the 300 passing yards per game UCF have given up in the last three games they have played. That is many more yards than their overall season record, but Ferguson has to continue to look after the ball as he has been against a ball-hawking Secondary that are capable of making some big plays despite the numbers.

Ferguson will be expected to better his 2016 numbers in this game, but he should be ably supported by Darrell Henderson as the Memphis Offensive Line has been in great run blocking form in recent games. With the UCF Knights Defensive Line having a few problems stopping the run of late as they try and protect against the pass, I can see Memphis having plenty of success in the Championship Game to give themselves a chance for the upset.

Even with the way Memphis have been playing, the UCF Knights are favourites with home advantage behind them and it will be difficult for Memphis to slow them down Offensively too. With a mobile Quarter Back, the Knights have found a way to get the run established which has just opened things up for the passing game and I would expect UCF to get the better of the Memphis Defensive Line.

That only makes things easier for McKenzie Milton at Quarter Back who has already had a big season with over 3300 passing yards behind him as well as the threat to run the ball that he possesses. He has been well protected for the most part with the scrambling ability behind him and the only concern for Milton will be the same as Ferguson in needing to look after the ball when he throws.

So far that hasn't been an issue for Milton, but like the UCF Secondary the Memphis Tigers have made plays to turn the ball over and the Quarter Back who looks after the ball best may win this game.

It looks like both teams will be able to move the ball with consistency and turnovers may prove critical to the outcome of the game. UCF blew out Memphis here earlier in the season, but I like the way the Tigers have been playing and the revenge factor can't be underplayed.

The Knights have covered in the last five home games against Memphis, but I do think the Tigers will be more rested having not had the same time of hardship as the Knights faced in a tough win over South Florida in rivalry week. UCF have been outgained in terms of yards in each of the last couple of games and I think this is a game that will come down to the wire which means Memphis could have every chance of a backdoor cover in this one.

I like the way Riley Ferguson has bounced back from the loss to the UCF Knights and I expect a much better performance from the Memphis Tigers than when being blown out here back in September. The Knights also look like they could have been worn down to make this a much closer game and getting as many points the Memphis Tigers are have to be taken in the American Athletic Conference Championship Game.


North Texas Mean Green @ Florida Atlantic Owls Pick: The Florida Atlantic Owls and the North Texas Mean Green have both overachieved this season with neither expected to take part in the Conference-USA Championship Game. Lane Kiffin took over as Head Coach of the Owls in preparation for this season, but he has not only enhanced his reputation but also has found favour with the fans with some brilliant social media posting.

The players also clearly have time for him as Kiffin has led Florida Atlantic to their first winning season since 2007 after the school had gone 9-27 under Charlie Partridge in the last three seasons. This was supposed to be a work in progress at Florida Atlantic, but Kiffin has helped the Owls overachieve with an 8-0 Conference record and a chance to win the Championship.

They may not have the same level of attention after the splash hire made by the Owls, but the North Texas Mean Green making the Play Offs is a huge achievement having gone just 8-16 in Conference play since their 6-2 record in the first season in the CUSA. North Texas made a Bowl Game last year with five wins because of a lack of six win teams, but they have made no mistake this time around having gone 9-3 overall and 7-1 in the Conference.

The one loss? That came against the Florida Atlantic Owls here in mid-October.

The pressure of trying to win a Championship could make this a closer game than when the Florida Atlantic Owls won by thirty-eight points earlier in the regular season, but even with that in mind I like the chances of Kiffin's team covering the spread. His focus should be fully on earning a Conference Championship despite some linking his name with bigger Coaching jobs that have popped up in the nation, and I do think the Owls have been playing a little better than North Texas.

The line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball will be very important in this game and I do think the Owls can have the edge on either side that can put them in a strong position to win the Championship. The Owls have been particularly stout against the run in recent games and being able to slow down North Texas would be a huge achievement as it can open up the pass rush to make the big plays to give Florida Atlantic the edge.

Jeffrey Wilson should have his moments in what has been a big season for him, but I can see the Owls finding a way to at least force North Texas in a couple of third and longs when the pass rush should be able to affect the Mason Fine throw from Quarter Back. Fine will have some holes in the Secondary to exploit and he has looked after the ball a little better in recent games, but he will have to be careful as the Owls have found a way to turn the ball over during the course of the season.

The question for North Texas will be whether or not they can find a way to slow down the Florida Atlantic Offense on the ground as I imagine the Owls will be able to do to the Mean Green at times. The Mean Green Defensive Line have found it difficult to do that throughout the season and it is hard to imagine they can begin against a Florida Atlantic team who have a mobile Quarter Back and who have been averaging 5.9 yards per carry over their last three games which isn't far removed from their 6 yards per carry average over the course of the season.

There have been holes up front for North Texas and I think the Owls will be looking to keep things on the ground for much of the afternoon to set them up for the win. Moving the chains on the ground opens things up for play-action passes and Jason Driskel has thrived since taking over as the starting Quarter Back. I expect he will have some success throwing the ball as well as running it in this one and I like the Owls to win the Championship Game in front of their own fans.

The home team is now 4-0 against the spread in the last four in this series and my only concern is that this is a much bigger spread than when these teams first met. However I think Florida Atlantic are playing better than North Texas and look more likely to move the chains with consistency, while they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five home games and home field should be all important for Florida Atlantic to record a win by closer to three Touchdowns than two.


Oklahoma Sooners vs TCU Horned Frogs Pick: A place in the College Football Play Off is on the line for the Oklahoma Sooners in the Big 12 Conference Championship Game which was reintroduced after Oklahoma miss out on the final four a year ago. It had become clear that not having a definite Champion would hurt the Big 12, but the irony is that in the first year of the Conference Championship Game returning is the one where it could potentially hurt the Big 12.

If it wasn't for this game to be played, the Oklahoma Sooners would have been all but guaranteed a berth in the final four. Now the pressure is on the Sooners because they won't make it if they lose this game, while the TCU Horned Frogs have plenty of motivation to win the Conference even if their own chances of making the Play Offs are extremely unlikely.

That may not have been the case if the Horned Frogs had not lost to the eventual 7-5 Iowa State Cyclones as they would have been in a position to avenge what ended up being the other loss on their schedule at the Oklahoma Sooners. On the other hand the Sooners are a one loss team with a win over potential Big Ten Champions Ohio State on the road, but a defeat will not look good for the Committee and there is plenty of pressure for the Big 12 to be dealing with in this Championship Game played in Dallas.

The first meeting between these teams came three weeks ago and took place in Norman as the Sooners eventually prevailed by eighteen points. The Horned Frogs bounced back with consecutive wins to reach the Championship Game, but it will be interesting to see the kind of adjustments they are able to make.

TCU have gotten this far thanks to their Defensive play and while they are trying to shift all the pressure onto Oklahoma, there is no doubt how important this game is for them too. Over the course of the season the Horned Frogs Defensive Line have been one of the strongest looking ones in the nation, but they were absolutely hammered by the Sooners in Norman and TCU know they have to do better up front to have any chance to win this one.

If the Sooners are able to make some big plays on the ground, Baker Mayfield can underline his credentials as favourite for the Heisman Trophy with another big performance against the best Defense in the Big 12. Mayfield had three Touchdown passes in the first meeting between these teams and Oklahoma running the ball should mean the TCU pass rush is slowed down and Mayfield is given time to break a Secondary he has torched already this season.

With a team that has been built on the foundation of Defensive success, the TCU Horned Frogs don't want a repeat of the first game and have to make the adjustments to try and slow down an Offensive unit who more than doubled the season average of points allowed by the Horned Frogs.

It has been much harder for the Horned Frogs on the other side of the ball although they are still a team that will deserve their respect. Kenny Hill at Quarter Back has had a much better season than in 2016, but he isn't going to take this game on his shoulders like Mayfield will for the Sooners, while the Oklahoma Defensive unit are under-rated.

That all begins up front for the Sooners with the Defensive Line likely to leave TCU in a few third and longs over the course of this game and force Hill to beat them through the air. The Sooners Defensive Line have played the run very well throughout the season and being able to put the clamps on the TCU rushing Offense here.

Making plays through the air won't be easy for Hill either with the Sooners whole Defensive unit taking a backseat to the powerful Offense but playing just as efficiently. The Sooners can make the big plays in this one which will give them every chance to win the game and I do think if Mayfield is able to reproduce anything close to what he did in Norman against the Horned Frogs then the Sooners win this game fairly comfortably.

The Horned Frogs are just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten against a team with a winning record. On the other hand Oklahoma have thrived in this spot with a 16-5 record against the spread in their last twenty-one against a team with a winning record and I do like the Sooners to cover this spread and win the Big 12 Championship while also securing a College Football Play Off berth.


Georgia Bulldogs vs Auburn Tigers Pick: There are a number of Championship Games being played in Week 14 which are repeats of regular season games, but the biggest looks to come from the SEC Championship Game between the Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs. For both teams things have become simple- win and you can call yourself the SEC Champion playing in the College Football Play Offs, but lose and those hopes go up in dust at the same time.

It means plenty of tension for both teams as the Auburn Tigers look for yet another big win over the last month. In that time the Tigers have beaten the Number 1 Ranked Georgia Bulldogs in a blow out at home and then beat the Number 1 Ranked Alabama Crimson Tide in the Iron Bowl in Week 13 to earn their place in the SEC Championship Game.

In both of those games the Tigers were the home underdog so it is something of a surprise to see them as the favourite to beat the Bulldogs on a neutral field. Of course the blow out at home will have had something to do with that, but I still expected the Georgia Bulldogs to be set as the narrow favourite and with that in mind I think there is a reason to back the underdog in the SEC Championship Game.

Revenge has to be on the minds of the Bulldogs players who wanted to rematch with the Auburn Tigers believing they needed to right the wrongs of three weeks ago. It wasn't a good day in the office for the Bulldogs, but they have since bounced back with a couple of strong wins and I do think they can run the ball better than they showed when visiting Auburn.

This time it will feel like Georgia have home field with the game being played in Atlanta and they have to believe having had a look at the Auburn Tigers will give them a chance for a much better effort Offensively. Despite being one of the best Offensive Lines in the nation and having not one, but two premier Running Backs, Georgia were not able to run the ball in Auburn but I think they will have learnt from that game and can have a little more success this week.

They are also facing a Auburn team who just had a battle in the Iron Bowl and I have to think that would have worn on the Defensive Line with yet another big challenge up front. This time I do expect better from the Georgia Bulldogs with the fans behind them.

Failing to do that and I am struggling to see how the Georgia Bulldogs win this game as Jake Fromm just won't be able to make consistent plays with the pass rush he would face and against a tough Secondary. However if Fromm is put into third and manageable spots, I do think the Quarter Back will have learned from a tough experience in Auburn to have a much better showing in the SEC Championship Game.

Adjustments should also be made on the Georgia Defensive Line who have been strong up front, but who were bullied by Auburn's Offensive Line when these teams met. That saw the Tigers make some huge plays on the ground on their way to a big win and Georgia have to show they are stronger up front this time. That task may be helped by the fact that Kerryon Johnson is banged up at Running Back for the Tigers, although I doubt he sits this game out.

If the holes are opened up front as they were in the regular season, Auburn may be able to use another Running Back and still have success, but Georgia will have plenty to prove here. They will want to get some pressure on Jarrett Stidham by getting the Tigers into obvious passing downs and seeing if the Quarter Back can make the big plays on a consistent basis.

Stidham has played well for the Tigers as their starting Quarter Back but it would be a much more difficult day for him in third and long than third and manageable considering how well the Bulldogs Secondary have played. The numbers all season have been good looking, but Georgia have to be better at the line of scrimmage on both sides of the ball to win this game.

I think they can do that and this spread looks to have made a huge move. If the game on November 11th had been played on a neutral field, Georgia would have been 5.5 point favourites, but instead they are coming in as a 2 point underdog and I think that is putting too much stock into the defeat the Bulldogs suffered on the road at Auburn.

Georgia said they wanted to this game ever since that loss and I think the team will use the loss as a chip on their shoulders as well as suddenly being the underdog. While the Tigers have come out of the tougher looking SEC West, I do think those games accumulate the wear and tear and coming off a tough Iron Bowl win might leave them ripe for the upset.

With what will feel like home field advantage, I am going to take the points here with the Bulldogs who will be looking for revenge. I expect them to be a lot better than they were in the loss in Auburn and I can see the Bulldogs winning this one outright so I will take the points here with a team that would have been favoured in this situation just three weeks ago.


Troy Trojans @ Arkansas State Red Wolves Pick: The Sun Belt Conference may not have a Championship Game, but this is between two of the top three teams in the Conference and has major implications. The winner of the game will have at least a share of the Championship, but would be an outright winner if Appalachian State have not won their final regular season game earlier in the day.

Both of these teams have lived up to the preseason hype with many calling this final regular season game as having the potential to decide the Sun Belt Conference Champion. Both teams are already Bowl eligible, but the winner of this won't only have a share of the Championship in this Conference, but they will also match last season's win total as Troy have put together a 9-2 record so far and the Arkansas State Red Wolves are at 7-3.

Confidence shouldn't be a problem for the Trojans or the Red Wolves with a winning run heading into the final regular season game. Home advantage saw Arkansas State open this week as a narrow favourite, but the money has come in for Troy and the spread has flipped a couple of points to make the Trojans favourites instead and I do like them to win here.

The Defensive Lines have been strong for both the Trojans and the Red Wolves and it is going to be tough for either team to establish the run. Out of the two I do give Troy a little more chance to do that and that is mainly down to the fact their Secondary have performed better than Arkansas State's and so they may be able to commit one or two men more to stop the run than the Red Wolves will be able to do.

Justice Hansen has produced some huge numbers for Arkansas State from the Quarter Back position, but his protection could have some problems against the fierce Troy pass rush which produced DeMarcus Ware. The Trojans have been penetrating the backfield and getting to the Quarter Back for much of the season, but have ramped that up in their most recent games and they could force Hansen to throw from some tough positions which will only give the ball-hawking Secondary a chance to make some big plays.

Passing the ball against Troy has not been easy with that pass rush coupled with a strong Defensive Line that has held teams to 112 yards per game on the ground at a very good 3 yards per carry. Despite the strong season Hansen has put together, I do think the Troy Defensive unit can make the plays to give them a chance to win this game.

While Troy themselves will have some troubles running the ball, I do expect them to have more success than Arkansas State. That should only make things easier for Brandon Silvers at Quarter Back who has picked up his play in recent weeks as his confidence has grown.

Silvers has been protected better than Hansen has at Arkansas State and giving him a little more time should see him exploit the Red Wolves Secondary which has given up some big plays. The Quarter Back has also looked after the ball a little better than Hansen and I think that gives Troy the chance to win this game and take at least a share of the Sun Belt Conference Championship.

Arkansas State have won four in a row in this series which will be a mental obstacle Troy have to overcome, but I think the Trojans are the better team this season. The Red Wolves can be a tough out at home, but I believe Troy can find the bigger plays in this one on both sides of the ball and I like them to win and cover.


Fresno State Bulldogs @ Boise State Broncos Pick: The Mountain West Conference Championship Game was already set in stone in Week 13, but a quirk in the schedule meant the Fresno State Bulldogs and Boise State Broncos met in Fresno. Not many would have picked the Bulldogs to be in a position to make the Championship Game having gone 1-11 last season and having a losing record in the three seasons since Derek Carr was Drafted by the Oakland Raiders.

It was a homecoming for Jeff Tedford in his first year as the Head Coach for the Bulldogs and the team and fans responded as Fresno State would have wanted.

Boise State have been a much more consistent performer in recent years and they make the Mountain West Championship Game for the first time since 2014 despite having at least nine wins in each of the last three seasons. They have reached that number again in 2017 and Boise State can match the ten wins of 2016 with a victory on their home turf and earning revenge for the defeat to Fresno State last week.

It was a close game, but the Bulldogs win by eleven points means they are getting only a couple more points on the spread than they were given as the home underdog in Week 13. I do wonder if the Broncos held something back in that game to make sure they have something to surprise Fresno State in the Championship Game and that does make Boise State dangerous in this one.

With that in mind I still think this is too many points for the confident Bulldogs to be getting as they look for a fifth straight win. The Fresno State Defensive unit have picked up their play this season to spark the successes the Bulldogs have had, especially when it came to playing their Conference schedule.

Stopping the run has been a key part of the Defense of the Bulldogs and they were able to slow down the Boise State Broncos last week and kept their Offensive unit in third and long enough times to make some stops. Brett Rypien should still be able to make his plays from the Quarter Back position but it is always tougher to do that when a team is not able to run the ball and that will be the key for Fresno State again this week.

Running the ball was an issue for the Bulldogs in Week 13 too, but Marcus McMaryion had another strong day at Quarter Back. I do think McMaryion can have success again this week but dealing with the hostile atmosphere will be so important if Fresno State are going to have a chance of the upset.

I do think both teams will make the adjustments from Week 13 to make this another competitive game and with that in mind it feels like Fresno State are receiving too many points here. The underdog has now covered in the last four games in this series, while Boise State are 3-12 against the spread in the last fifteen home games.

The Broncos are also 4-10 against the spread in their last fourteen games against a team with a winning record, while Fresno State 10-1 against the spread in the last eleven against a team with a winning record. The Bulldogs have been money at the betting window over the last couple of seasons despite them having a poor straight up record in 2016, and I will take the points on offer in this one.


Clemson Tigers vs Miami Hurricanes Pick: The ACC Championship is on the line and also a place in the College Football Play Off when the Clemson Tigers and the Miami Hurricanes meet on Saturday in North Carolina. It would be hard to make a case for the losing team to earn a spot in the top four barring something calamitous happening throughout the Championship Games, and that means there will be some tension for the teams to deal with.

Historically the Miami Hurricanes have been the bigger name, but they are playing in the first ACC Championship Game since joining the League in 2003 which has to be a surprise to their fanbase. On the other hand Clemson have become a team not only contending for Conference Championships, but one that is amongst the favourites to win the National Championship.

The defending National Champions will likely be the favourites if they are able to make the College Football Play Off having already secured a win over the Auburn Tigers who could be the SEC Champions. The Clemson Tigers have won their last five games and mostly in dominating fashion which is the reason they are big favourites to beat Miami who were surprisingly beaten by the Pittsburgh Panthers in Week 13 to end their unbeaten run in the 2017 season.

Clemson have won the ACC Conference Championship Game twice in a row and have also played in the National Championship two seasons in a row with one win and one loss. The Tigers definitely look like they have the edge in this one with the experience a big plus over the Miami Hurricanes.

The Tigers will look to show their dominance immediately by trying to run the ball against the Miami Defensive Line which has been the foundation for the successes the Hurricanes have had this season. It won't be easy for Clemson but they could open up the running lanes with their ability to throw the ball, although the Tigers won't want Kelly Bryant left in third and long too often.

That will allow Miami to unleash their pass rush which has effectively rattled Quarter Backs to the point of creating many turnovers, but it will be interesting to see if they can rattle Bryant. His protection hasn't always stepped up, but Bryant has been good at limiting the turnovers and that may be enough for the Tigers who have to feel their own Defensive unit can make the plays to stop Miami as long as they are not dealing with short fields.

Bryant has played well in recent games and there have been a few more holes in the Miami Secondary, but he has to play mistake free football.

Doing that will mean Clemson won't lose out on the field position battle and force Miami to make plays with their Offense rather than thriving on mistakes made by opponents. There are some big questions about the Hurricanes on the Offensive side of the ball which will be tested by the Clemson Tigers who have one of the better Defensive units in the whole of College Football.

Miami have been able to run the ball effectively even without injured Mark Walton, but Clemson may focus on stopping them up front and force Malik Rosier to beat them through the air. The Tigers Defensive Line has been stout throughout the season, but the decision to commit to stopping the run may also be influenced by the fact that the Miami Receiving corps have been banged up.

The Clemson Secondary have played really well too and facing an inexperienced Receiving corps should mean they can handle things in one on one coverage and allow the Safeties to look to stop the run. Keeping Miami in third and long would make it difficult for this Offense to move the chains with any consistency and this is also a Tigers Secondary that can make plays through the air to turn the ball over.

It has to be said that Miami will be playing with a lot of revenge considering the manner in which Clemson humiliated them in the regular season in 2016. However they don't have the big game know how of the Clemson Tigers and the Hurricanes are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven when playing on a neutral ground.

Clemson are 9-1 against the spread in their last ten on neutral field and I will look for them to shut down the Miami Offense and make enough plays on the other side of the ball to cover a big spread. It won't be easy considering how well the Hurricanes Defensive unit have played, but I can see them being worn down as the game goes and Clemson can extend the lead late in the game to ensure a College Football Play Off spot is secured with a double digit win in the Championship Game.

MY PICKS: USC Trojans - 4 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Memphis Tigers + 7 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Florida Atlantic Owls - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Oklahoma Sooners - 7 Points @ 1.95 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Georgia Bulldogs + 2 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Troy Trojans - 1 Point @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Fresno State Bulldogs + 8.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Clemson Tigers - 9 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Midweek Football Picks 2015 (December 1-2)

This really does feel like the calm before the storm as the opening few days in December are set aside for domestic Cup games, in England that being the Capital One Cup rather than the FA Cup.

After this week there really isn't much rest for the teams that play in England with a number of fixtures to be completed before the FA Cup Third Round weekend on January 9th.

In that time we will see the Group Stage of the Champions League/Europa League concluded, a number of domestic League games played as well as the FA Cup Second Round. That means draws for the big Third Round weekend as well as the Knock Out Stage of the European competition, while the focus in Europe will also be taken in seeing the Euro 2016 draw put together in the next couple of weeks.

I am not one of these people that want England to incorporate a 'Winter Break' and I am looking forward to this time of the year when there is plenty of good food and football to enjoy.


I have finally had time to get a Weekend Football Thoughts post put up having missed the last month thanks to life being busier than planned. This week I am looking at the difficulties at Aston Villa and Newcastle United as well as the poor form of Wayne Rooney and Diego Costa and finally looking ahead to the New Year and wondering which teams will be involved in a title race. Those issues can all be read here.


So the picks have been a bit of a disaster through the first three months, but there really isn't a lot you can do when you pick a team and they lead 0-2 with ten minutes left, score to go ahead in the 95th minute and still fail to win the game. Little things like that can make all the difference but I seem to be hitting plenty of bad luck to go with bad picks and that is never going to be a good thing.

It's disappointing to be honest, but I am thinking I am on the right path as long as I get a semblance of luck going my way.


Manchester City v Hull City Pick: With the anticipated changes that Steve Bruce is likely to make to his Hull City team Manchester City are unsurprisingly strong favourites to progress to a second Semi Final in three years under Manuel Pellegrini.

You would expect Sergio Aguero to sit with the Christmas games in mind and having come off at the weekend, but Manchester City should still have too much quality in their ranks for Hull City. The likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling could be joined by David Silva in the starting line up as Manuel Pellegrini will look to get this tie in hand very quickly.

That has seen Manchester City win 4-1 at Sunderland and 5-1 at home against Crystal Palace in the last couple of Rounds of the Capital One Cup. It might be a little concern for Hull City that Sheffield Wednesday of the Championship were embarrassed 7-0 here last season, but Steve Bruce will just look for a big effort and a defeat wouldn't be the end of the world as his team focus on League matters.

No team is going to roll over so the changes made to the Hull City team should see players looking to prove themselves for selection in the coming months. This club have done well on their recent visits to The Etihad Stadium, but this does feel like the home team have too many advantages and I expect Manchester City to progress without too many difficulties.

Once Manchester City get control of the game, it is hard to see them letting it go and I like them to win this one by at least two goals so will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap.


Middlesbrough v Everton Pick: The two live games being picked for the Capital One Cup Quarter Finals both look like they could be highly competitive games including this one between Middlesbrough and Everton. There are three Championship versus Premier League fixtures in the Cup, but this is the only one where the lower League side is hosting and Middlesbrough will feel they can cause another upset.

The side defended well for long periods against Manchester United at Old Trafford in the last Round and Middlesbrough might even have won that game without the need for penalties with better composure in front of goal. That has been a problem for them in recent games including their last home game which resulted in a late penalty leading to a win over Queens Park Rangers.

Some of the home fans were unbelievably restless in that game to the point that Aitor Karanka has told the fans to stay behind the team and this is going to be the kind of game where Middlesbrough need their fans. Facing a tough Premier League team at home is not going to be easy but Middlesbrough won't be intimidated by an Everton team that have looked good going forward but also pretty average at the back.

Everton have shown some vulnerabilities against the lower League teams they have faced in the Capital One Cup as they needed extra time to see off League One Barnsley and were behind at Championship Reading before rallying for a 1-2 win.

And coming off the really disappointing draw with Bournemouth where they led 0-2 with ten minutes left and also 2-3 after a 95th minute goal is going to play with the Everton minds or so you would expect. Everton have been difficult to beat on their travels this season, but Middlesbrough have been very strong at home and these two teams might really negate one another and need extra time or penalties to separate them.

Neither Aitor Karanka nor Roberto Martinez will want those extra minutes with the Christmas period fast approaching, but a Semi Final spot is going to make it a tense game and it could end in a draw. That might be worth a small interest in the live showing on Tuesday evening.


Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: This should be the kind of tie that Stoke City win, but they look very short at healthy odds on to win the game and it is a spot in which they have failed a few times in the Premier League. The expectation that they should win this game can play on their mind and Sheffield Wednesday will come here with 'nothing to lose'.

That freedom has allowed Sheffield Wednesday to beat the likes of Newcastle United and Arsenal so they won't be overawed by having to play at Stoke City. Sheffield Wednesday have been playing very well over the last couple of months and they have been scoring goals on their travels which makes them a dangerous proposition for Stoke City.

It isn't that long ago since Watford came here and won 0-2 in the Premier League and I certainly think Sheffield Wednesday can cause some problems for Stoke City. In saying that, I also believe Stoke City will dig deep and find a way to win this game although they will have to come through some tense moments to reach the Semi Final in the League Cup.

I do see a situation where both teams will score in this one while the nature of the Cup tie could see spaces coming open if one team is chasing the game. That leads me to think we may see at least three goals in this one, which has been a feature of recent Sheffield Wednesday away games, and the layers might be offering too tempting a price on that happening.


Southampton v Liverpool Pick: It was another difficult game for Jurgen Klopp at Anfield on Sunday, but his Liverpool team did maintain a strong winning run in the last few weeks by seeing off Swansea City 1-0. For all the difficulties they have had in imposing their style at Anfield, Liverpool have been a real force in their recent away games as shown by big wins at Chelsea and Manchester City.

Not often can it be said that Liverpool perhaps prefer playing away from the cauldron that Anfield can provide, but that might be the case for Klopp and the style he has put together with this current squad of players. They might actually enjoy the freedom the team get away from home where there is naturally more space to exploit and Liverpool will go to Southampton with plenty of confidence they can move into the Semi Finals of the League Cup.

Southampton did reach this stage last season, but they were in the midst of a poor run and that moved into their Cup performance in a disappointing 1-0 loss at Sheffield United. There are some similarities this time around too with Southampton suffering back to back Premier League losses ahead of the Quarter Final and that will be something of a concern for Ronald Koeman.

In saying that, Southampton played well at Manchester City in their 3-1 loss and that kind of level will give Liverpool problems. The layers are finding it hard to separate them and I am too although the gut feeling I have is that Liverpool are in the stronger form and play very well away from home in recent weeks to think they can edge this one.

One thing that has stood out in their away games is that there have been goals at both ends and that might be the case in this Capital One Cup game. Both teams should have their chances in this one and a 2-1 scoreline either way wouldn't surprise me too much, while there could be more space to exploit if a team is chasing this game.

The layers are not expecting goals but I think there will be at least three shared- I would favour Liverpool at the prices if I was convinced Jurgen Klopp would play his strongest eleven, but that doubt means I favour goals to be scored, a feature of recent Liverpool games under their new manager.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Middlesbrough-Everton Draw @ 3.40 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Stoke City-Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)