Midweek Football Picks 2015 (December 1-2)

This really does feel like the calm before the storm as the opening few days in December are set aside for domestic Cup games, in England that being the Capital One Cup rather than the FA Cup.

After this week there really isn't much rest for the teams that play in England with a number of fixtures to be completed before the FA Cup Third Round weekend on January 9th.

In that time we will see the Group Stage of the Champions League/Europa League concluded, a number of domestic League games played as well as the FA Cup Second Round. That means draws for the big Third Round weekend as well as the Knock Out Stage of the European competition, while the focus in Europe will also be taken in seeing the Euro 2016 draw put together in the next couple of weeks.

I am not one of these people that want England to incorporate a 'Winter Break' and I am looking forward to this time of the year when there is plenty of good food and football to enjoy.


I have finally had time to get a Weekend Football Thoughts post put up having missed the last month thanks to life being busier than planned. This week I am looking at the difficulties at Aston Villa and Newcastle United as well as the poor form of Wayne Rooney and Diego Costa and finally looking ahead to the New Year and wondering which teams will be involved in a title race. Those issues can all be read here.


So the picks have been a bit of a disaster through the first three months, but there really isn't a lot you can do when you pick a team and they lead 0-2 with ten minutes left, score to go ahead in the 95th minute and still fail to win the game. Little things like that can make all the difference but I seem to be hitting plenty of bad luck to go with bad picks and that is never going to be a good thing.

It's disappointing to be honest, but I am thinking I am on the right path as long as I get a semblance of luck going my way.


Manchester City v Hull City Pick: With the anticipated changes that Steve Bruce is likely to make to his Hull City team Manchester City are unsurprisingly strong favourites to progress to a second Semi Final in three years under Manuel Pellegrini.

You would expect Sergio Aguero to sit with the Christmas games in mind and having come off at the weekend, but Manchester City should still have too much quality in their ranks for Hull City. The likes of Kevin De Bruyne and Raheem Sterling could be joined by David Silva in the starting line up as Manuel Pellegrini will look to get this tie in hand very quickly.

That has seen Manchester City win 4-1 at Sunderland and 5-1 at home against Crystal Palace in the last couple of Rounds of the Capital One Cup. It might be a little concern for Hull City that Sheffield Wednesday of the Championship were embarrassed 7-0 here last season, but Steve Bruce will just look for a big effort and a defeat wouldn't be the end of the world as his team focus on League matters.

No team is going to roll over so the changes made to the Hull City team should see players looking to prove themselves for selection in the coming months. This club have done well on their recent visits to The Etihad Stadium, but this does feel like the home team have too many advantages and I expect Manchester City to progress without too many difficulties.

Once Manchester City get control of the game, it is hard to see them letting it go and I like them to win this one by at least two goals so will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap.


Middlesbrough v Everton Pick: The two live games being picked for the Capital One Cup Quarter Finals both look like they could be highly competitive games including this one between Middlesbrough and Everton. There are three Championship versus Premier League fixtures in the Cup, but this is the only one where the lower League side is hosting and Middlesbrough will feel they can cause another upset.

The side defended well for long periods against Manchester United at Old Trafford in the last Round and Middlesbrough might even have won that game without the need for penalties with better composure in front of goal. That has been a problem for them in recent games including their last home game which resulted in a late penalty leading to a win over Queens Park Rangers.

Some of the home fans were unbelievably restless in that game to the point that Aitor Karanka has told the fans to stay behind the team and this is going to be the kind of game where Middlesbrough need their fans. Facing a tough Premier League team at home is not going to be easy but Middlesbrough won't be intimidated by an Everton team that have looked good going forward but also pretty average at the back.

Everton have shown some vulnerabilities against the lower League teams they have faced in the Capital One Cup as they needed extra time to see off League One Barnsley and were behind at Championship Reading before rallying for a 1-2 win.

And coming off the really disappointing draw with Bournemouth where they led 0-2 with ten minutes left and also 2-3 after a 95th minute goal is going to play with the Everton minds or so you would expect. Everton have been difficult to beat on their travels this season, but Middlesbrough have been very strong at home and these two teams might really negate one another and need extra time or penalties to separate them.

Neither Aitor Karanka nor Roberto Martinez will want those extra minutes with the Christmas period fast approaching, but a Semi Final spot is going to make it a tense game and it could end in a draw. That might be worth a small interest in the live showing on Tuesday evening.


Stoke City v Sheffield Wednesday Pick: This should be the kind of tie that Stoke City win, but they look very short at healthy odds on to win the game and it is a spot in which they have failed a few times in the Premier League. The expectation that they should win this game can play on their mind and Sheffield Wednesday will come here with 'nothing to lose'.

That freedom has allowed Sheffield Wednesday to beat the likes of Newcastle United and Arsenal so they won't be overawed by having to play at Stoke City. Sheffield Wednesday have been playing very well over the last couple of months and they have been scoring goals on their travels which makes them a dangerous proposition for Stoke City.

It isn't that long ago since Watford came here and won 0-2 in the Premier League and I certainly think Sheffield Wednesday can cause some problems for Stoke City. In saying that, I also believe Stoke City will dig deep and find a way to win this game although they will have to come through some tense moments to reach the Semi Final in the League Cup.

I do see a situation where both teams will score in this one while the nature of the Cup tie could see spaces coming open if one team is chasing the game. That leads me to think we may see at least three goals in this one, which has been a feature of recent Sheffield Wednesday away games, and the layers might be offering too tempting a price on that happening.


Southampton v Liverpool Pick: It was another difficult game for Jurgen Klopp at Anfield on Sunday, but his Liverpool team did maintain a strong winning run in the last few weeks by seeing off Swansea City 1-0. For all the difficulties they have had in imposing their style at Anfield, Liverpool have been a real force in their recent away games as shown by big wins at Chelsea and Manchester City.

Not often can it be said that Liverpool perhaps prefer playing away from the cauldron that Anfield can provide, but that might be the case for Klopp and the style he has put together with this current squad of players. They might actually enjoy the freedom the team get away from home where there is naturally more space to exploit and Liverpool will go to Southampton with plenty of confidence they can move into the Semi Finals of the League Cup.

Southampton did reach this stage last season, but they were in the midst of a poor run and that moved into their Cup performance in a disappointing 1-0 loss at Sheffield United. There are some similarities this time around too with Southampton suffering back to back Premier League losses ahead of the Quarter Final and that will be something of a concern for Ronald Koeman.

In saying that, Southampton played well at Manchester City in their 3-1 loss and that kind of level will give Liverpool problems. The layers are finding it hard to separate them and I am too although the gut feeling I have is that Liverpool are in the stronger form and play very well away from home in recent weeks to think they can edge this one.

One thing that has stood out in their away games is that there have been goals at both ends and that might be the case in this Capital One Cup game. Both teams should have their chances in this one and a 2-1 scoreline either way wouldn't surprise me too much, while there could be more space to exploit if a team is chasing this game.

The layers are not expecting goals but I think there will be at least three shared- I would favour Liverpool at the prices if I was convinced Jurgen Klopp would play his strongest eleven, but that doubt means I favour goals to be scored, a feature of recent Liverpool games under their new manager.

MY PICKS: Manchester City - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.90 Bet365 (2 Units)
Middlesbrough-Everton Draw @ 3.40 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Stoke City-Sheffield Wednesday Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Southampton-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)

November Final: 11-19-1, - 12.94 Units (51 Units Staked, - 25.37% Yield)

October Final: 16-25, - 13.51 Units (79.50 Units Staked, - 16.99% Yield)
September Final: 29-30-3, + 4.18 Units (117.5 Units Staked, + 3.58% Yield)
August Final: 16-31-1, - 24.34 Units (94 Units Staked, - 25.89% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 72-105-5, - 46.61 Units (342 Units Staked, - 13.63% Yield)
Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Midweek Football Picks 2014 (December 16-17)

The League Cup, otherwise known as the Capital One Cup, takes centre stage this week as we have reached the Quarter Final stage of that competition, but it was the Champions League and Europa League draws that will be making the headlines after those were completed on Monday morning.

All three ties involving the English clubs in the Champions League are intriguing, although the one between Arsenal and Monaco is more to do with the links that Arsene Wenger has with both clubs. On paper, Arsenal should finally return to the Quarter Final of the Champions League having exited at the Last 16 stage four years in a row.

The ties between Chelsea/Paris Saint-Germain and Manchester City/Barcelona are rematches from last season, a factor of the Champions League draw thanks to the rules forbidding clubs from the same association meeting before the Quarter Finals. Will we see the same winners as last season from those ties? I would guess 'yes' at the moment, but injuries and form will have to be factored in when the tournament returns in February.


With the Europa League winner now getting a place in the Champions League, the likes of Liverpool, Tottenham Hotspur and Everton may all feel their best chance of getting into that competition is by winning the Europa League.

Everton have been given a decent Last 32 draw against Young Boys of Switzerland, but both Liverpool and Spurs have a couple of tough teams to overcome in Besiktas and Fiorentina respectively. The other factor is that the winner of the Europa League has to still play 9 games to win that event and the English teams might not be ready to throw all their eggs in that basket until their Premier League top four credentials have completely extinguished.

In saying that, both Liverpool and Everton may be in that position by February/March, although Tottenham Hotspur could be challenging for a top four place as long as they can improve their form at White Hart Lane.


Another game that might be getting a few more interested people tuning in is the FA Cup Second Round Replay between Yeovil Town and Accrington Stanley which takes place on Tuesday. With the winner of that having a huge financial boost by hosting Manchester United in the FA Cup Third Round early next month, expect a lot of interest from the fans of both clubs as well as the media, although it was a surprise to me that the game wasn't picked as one of the two for live viewing.


The World Club Championship also gets going with both Real Madrid and San Lorenzo entering at the Semi Final stage of that tournament and the expectation is that Real Madrid will add a title that they have yet to win to an ever-growing trophy cabinet.


Cruz Azul v Real Madrid Pick: At this moment in time, Real Madrid don't have too many peers in European football and it does seem a big ask for Cruz Azul to be the team to upset them in this World Club Championship Semi Final. It has been made clear all season that Real Madrid see this as a vital tournament to win and so desire can't be questioned, while they also have a proud 20 game winning run to protect so any hopes that Cruz Azul have might be fleeting at best.

Cruz Azul were struggling to see off the Western Sydney Wanderers in the Quarter Final and the CONCACAF representative has seen this tournament a tough one to deal with. Some of that will have to do with the travelling as Dubai and Morocco have hosted recent editions of the World Club Championship, but I also think the best players from those nations tend to ply their trade in either South America or Europe.

The European representative has been comfortable in the Semi Final of the competition and they have won the last 9 of those by a 29-5 scoreline. Real Madrid obviously have a lot of power in forward positions and have been scoring so many goals in recent games that it might end with another big win for the UEFA team in the Semi Final.

I don't think Cruz Azul will give up, but these players will know all about the big names that Real Madrid have and that can be tough to deal with with some more interested in whose shirt they will be able to swap at the end of the game. Real Madrid won't want to embarrass any team, but they have scored so many goals and have so many attacking options that it is hard to see how Cruz Azul will contain them.

Real Madrid have won 14 of their 20 games in their winning run by at least three goals and I will back them to do that again in this Semi Final and continue the UEFA dominance at this stage of the competition.


Derby County v Chelsea Pick: This is the kind of game that Steve McClaren and the Derby County players want to bring to the fans on a weekly basis by earning promotion to the Premier League and some may be calling for a surprise result if Chelsea make too many changes to their starting eleven.

However, Derby County have not been in the best form in recent weeks with 2 losses from their last 3 games and they were also outplayed by Chelsea in their home loss in the FA Cup last season.

Jose Mourinho also holds the League Cup in pretty high regards and he is likely to put out a Chelsea team that doesn't have a host of changes considering they have six days before the next Premier League game. Chelsea haven't been playing as well away from home in their most recent games, but they are a solid team and should be far too good for lower League opposition.

It should be an entertaining game as Derby County are the kind of team that will come forward and try and make things happen, which should also make it easier for Chelsea to play their football. Even with some of the changes that are likely to be made, I would still think Chelsea prove too good and they might end up with a similar result to the FA Cup win here last season.


Bournemouth v Liverpool Pick: There won't be too many better opportunities for Bournemouth to beat a team of the size of Liverpool as in this League Cup Quarter Final and the confident leaders of the Championship have to be fully motivated to do that. A chance to get into the League Cup Semi Final is one benefit, but the confidence a win over Liverpool could give Bournemouth to take into the rest of the League season could be critical in helping them earn promotion to the top flight for the first time.

Bournemouth have scored at least twice in their last 6 home games in all competitions and that includes a 2-1 win over West Brom in the last Round of the League Cup, while they have won 4 of those games.

However, Liverpool finally showed some creative life in their loss at Manchester United with the 3-0 scoreline flattering to the home team. David De Gea made some top saves, but it was poor finishing from the Liverpool forwards that prevented them scoring at least once, although Brendan Rodgers is happier with the chances that were created.

How much of that is down to the poor defensive performances that Manchester United have put in is hard to say, but I do think Liverpool are more suited to playing away from Anfield at the moment. They are given extra space in these away games as the home team has an onus on them to attack and I don't think Eddie Howe's Bournemouth are going to take a backward step.

One concern for Bournemouth has to be the fact they have conceded at least twice in their last 4 home games and I do think Liverpool have their chances in this one too. Seeing at least three goals looks a pretty big price, but I think there is something in taking there being at least four goals shared in this one.

The last 4 Bournemouth home games have seen that number hit, while Liverpool's 3 away games before the one at Old Trafford also saw that number reached. Add the chances up in the game at Manchester United and that game could easily have seen at least four goals shared by the teams and I think the 3.20 offered for that happening in this game is too big to ignore.


Tottenham Hotspur v Newcastle United Pick: Newcastle United may have had a poor result in North London on Saturday, but they will point to their 1-2 success at Tottenham Hotspur earlier this season as a confidence inspiring result that could see them come through this League Cup Quarter Final.

Both sets of fans will be dreaming that they are capable of reaching the Final if they come through this tie and likely avoid Chelsea in the Semi Final draw. That should inspire a big game from both sets of players and I think this has the elements that could make it a very entertaining game.

Neither manager will want his team pushed into extra time with the games coming thick and fast over the next month and I can see both looking to win this game from the off. Tottenham Hotspur created enough chances in the first game between these teams to have had the game won by half time, but Newcastle United will feel the pace in their forward lines will make them a dangerous proposition throughout the game on the counter-attack.

Neither defence is the most reliable either so I am expecting this Cup Quarter Final to produce goals with both Tottenham Hotspur and Newcastle United expected to score.

These teams have produced the goods when facing each other in recent seasons and 6 of the last 7 have seen at least three goals shared. At White Hart Lane, 3 of the last 4 have seen at least three goals shared and gaps would certainly open up in this game if one team is chasing the game with the pace and counter-attacking ability of the other.

Both games on Wednesday night in the League Cup look like they could be action filled, although I will take this one to end with at least three goals.

MY PICKS: Real Madrid - 2.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.75 Bet365 (2 Units)
Chelsea - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 2.11 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Bournemouth-Liverpool Over 3.5 Goals @ 3.20 Sporting Bet (1 Unit)
Tottenham Hotspur-Newcastle United Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.80 Ladbrokes (2 Units)

December Update: 11-11-1, + 4.76 Units (40 Units Staked, + 11.90% Yield)
November Final: 17-21, - 0.59 Units (69 Units Staked, - 1% Yield)
October Final: 8-18, - 14.79 Units (47 Units Staked, - 31.47% Yield)
September Final: 12-18, - 2.28 Units (41 Units Staked, - 5.56% Yield)
August Final: 8-22, - 19.92 Units (51 Units Staked, - 39.06% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 45-79, - 37.58 Units (208 Units Staked, - 18.07% Yield)
Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield)
Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)