ATP World Tour Finals Day 8 Tennis Picks 2023- Jannik Sinner vs Novak Djokovic (November 19th)

It has been a fun week in Turin as the Singles Tour comes to a close in 2023.

We still have the Davis Cup to be handed out, but for most, this will be the end of the season and preparation will begin for the 2024 season and the first Grand Slam at the Australian Open.

On Sunday, we have a rematch of a Group Stage match to determine the next World Tour Finals Champion and it should be played in a very good atmosphere as Novak Djokovic looks to win another big title.

Jannik Sinner will see this as a chance to lay down a marker for what can be achieved in 2024 and it has the makings of a very good end to the 2023 season.

Novak Djokovic - 2.5 games v Jannik Sinner: They met in the Group Stage of the ATP World Tour Finals and both Novak Djokovic and Jannik Sinner have come through their Semi Final matches on Saturday to compete for the last Singles title of 2023.

Jannik Sinner won their Group match in three tough sets, and he managed to win all four matches played in Turin in front of his home fans. However, one of those wins, the one over Holger Rune, is the only reason that Novak Djokovic is still involved in the tournament and the World Number 1 looks to be peaking with his best performance this week being in the Semi Final win over rival Carlos Alcaraz.

Nothing will come easy for Novak Djokovic in this one and he will know that this is a tough match having lost Group contest. It was a match that lasted over three hours and Sinner finally was able to get the better of Novak Djokovic in their fourth meeting on the Tour.

That will have given him confidence, but Jannik Sinner also needed three sets to beat Daniil Medvedev in the Semi Final and he has played a lot of tennis this week. There were some signs of fatiguing in the Semi Final win, while Jannik Sinner won the big points in the Group win over Novak Djokovic and it will not take a lot for the World Number 1 to turn things around and defend his title won here last year.

Jannik Sinner has really been making good use of the conditions in Turin and his serve has been a big weapon for him, as it was in the win over Djokovic.

However, it should be noted that the Italian won 69% of the points played on serve compared with Novak Djokovic's 73% mark in that match.

Over the course of the tournament, Novak Djokovic has had a narrow edge with the returning performance and that may show up in this Final.

The margins are expected to be tight, as they have been in most matches played this week in fast conditions, but you have to believe that Novak Djokovic will be extra motivated after losing in the Group. He will have a much better feel for the kind of atmosphere he will face and Djokovic has proven to be someone that can gain a lot of motivation over perceived slights.

In all likelihood, Novak Djokovic would have learned plenty from the loss earlier this week and he is expected to find the solutions needed to turn things around.

The pricing is basically the same as it was when these two players met in the Group Stage, but this time it looks worth backing the World Number 1 to do enough to edge past Jannik Sinner and cover this handicap mark.

MY PICK: Novak Djokovic - 2.5 Games @ 2.05 Coral (2 Units)

World Tour Finals Update: 9-3, + 8.52 Units (24 Units Staked, + 35.50% Yield)

Miami Masters Tennis Picks 2022 (April 3rd)

The dominating win for Iga Swiatek over Naomi Osaka has underlined her position as the best player on the WTA Tour and completing the 'Sunshine Double' on the hard courts is an impressive performance. The last time that happened on the WTA Tour was when Victoria Azarenka completed the same double in 2016 and I think the soon to be World Number 1 is going to be a strong favourite going into the French Open.

Iga Swiatek is a former French Open Champion and the clay courts have long been her favoured surface, although the improvements on the hard courts are impossible to ignore.

On Sunday the Miami Masters comes to a close with the ATP Final to be played by two young guns on the Tour. Both Carlos Alcaraz and Casper Ruud will feel they are ready to challenge for the biggest prizes in the sport already, but winning a Masters will just pump that confidence further and ahead of a portion of the season where both players are going to be feeling very comfortable.

I am hoping it will be a more competitive Final than the WTA one ended up being.

Casper Ruud + 3.5 games v Carlos Alcaraz: He has reached his first Masters Final and I am expecting this is going to be the first of many big Finals that Carlos Alcaraz is going to play in his career. The stunning improvements made by the youngster over the last twelve months has excited tennis fans who have long been waiting for a really special talent to break onto the scene as the big names have reached the back end of their own careers.

Barring distractions off the court or injury, Carlos Alcaraz is almost certainly a World Number 1 in the making and I would be surprised if he is not able to pick up a huge amount of Grand Slam titles in the years ahead. He does look to be grounded and looks to have a very solid support team around him and the confidence of Carlos Alcaraz cannot be doubted.

There hasn't been too many times when you have watched Alcaraz and felt the moment has been too big for him so I am not anticipating a host of nerves in the Miami Final.

Performances over the last couple of weeks on the North American hard courts have been impressive and the numbers have largely backed that up. In Miami, Carlos Alcaraz has been able to lay the foundation for his successes behind a solid serve that he has been able to hold in almost 97% of service games played in the tournament.

The breaks of serve have been harder to come by though and that has been the case in his last two wins over Miomir Kecmanovic and Hubert Hurkacz. It is something that may encourage Casper Ruud who is also playing in his first Masters Final and who also is a young player that is much improved over the last couple of years, especially on the hard courts.

There will be pressure on Casper Ruud as he looks to win the biggest title of his career and he has yet to had the impact at Grand Slam level that Carlos Alcaraz achieved at the US Open last year. Despite that, Ruud has been a consistent player on the Tour and that has helped him into the top ten of the World Rankings, while this is a big chance for him to show that he is ready to take the next step in his career.

Casper Ruud has served well enough in the Miami tournament with holds in 91% of service games played, but the real edge for him has been the strong returning numbers that have produced breaks in 36% of return games. He had a much more straight-forward Semi Final win, but Casper Ruud has also produced some big wins in Miami and I do think he can push his younger opponent.

The Norwegian is a pretty big underdog, but I think he has played solid tennis in Miami and I think he will have learned from the experience of losing heavily to Carlos Alcaraz last year on a clay court. That result will have surprised Casper Ruud on his favourite surface, but I certainly think he is a capable performer on the hard courts and can at least make this Final more competitive than their match in Marbella was.

It isn't easy to oppose Carlos Alcaraz considering how highly I rate him, but Casper Ruud has played well enough in Miami to avoid another heavy loss to this opponent. Being the underdog should help Casper Ruud in this one with all of the expectation on the shoulders of his younger opponent, but Ruud is a very solid player on the surface these days and has arguably played the superior tennis in the tournament.

MY PICK: Casper Ruud + 3.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Miami Update: 29-27, - 4.10 Units (112 Units Staked, - 3.66% Yield)