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Thursday 28 December 2023

NFL Week 17 Picks 2023 (December 28-31)

With the way the calendar has fallen, there is not going to be a Monday Night Football game in Week 17 of the NFL season.

That game will be played on Saturday instead as we continue to edge towards the post-season.

Fourteen teams will be playing in the PlayOffs, but only six have been confirmed ahead of Week 17 and that means there is still so much on the line.

Only the Detroit Lions and San Francisco 49ers have won their Division, while there are at least three teams in both the AFC South and NFC South who can still win the Division and earn the right to host a PlayOff game in January.

The picture may begin to clear up at the end of this week with a number of clinching scenarios that could be played out.


It is a busy time for families as well as sports teams and so this thread is going have a number of selections added to it over the coming days.

The updated top five after the Week 16 results can be read below before getting into the latest selections.


1) Baltimore Ravens (12-3): some believe it might have been a Super Bowl preview and the Baltimore Ravens deserve their place here following a crushing win over the San Francisco 49ers.

2) San Francisco 49ers (11-4): if there was going to be one really poor outing from Brock Purdy between now and February, the 49ers might be glad it came in a regular season game. It is also a defeat that will not prevent the 49ers from earning the Number 1 Seed in the NFC as long as they win out.

3) Detroit Lions (11-4): there is still some hope that the Lions can earn the top Seed in the NFC having secured a first Division title in thirty years.

4) Miami Dolphins (11-4): they have finally beaten a good team and the Dolphins can earn the top Seed in the AFC with back to back wins to close out the season. Doing so might make them favourites to reach the Super Bowl out of this Conference with Miami facing the Ravens and Buffalo Bills to end the regular season.

5) Philadelphia Eagles (11-4): there are still some questions for the Eagles to answer after making hard work of beating the New York Giants. However, they are back in pole position to win the NFC East, which could mean one, or potentially two home PlayOff games even if the Eagles are not able to earn the top Seed in the Conference.


New York Jets @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The injury to Aaron Rodgers always looked to be a pivotal moment for the New York Jets (6-9), even if it occurred just a handful of Offensive snaps into the 2023 season. The veteran long suggested he would fight back to return if the Jets were still in the PlayOff mix in December, but elimination has been confirmed and the long-suffering fanbase will already be thinking ahead to 2024 and what might be.

Before that, the Jets have to close out the season and they have been scheduled to play the last Thursday Night Football game of the year when travelling to the Cleveland Browns (10-5).

Despite being one of just seven teams in the NFL who have won at least ten games, the Browns are still waiting to officially book PlayOff tickets. The other six double digit game winners have all been confirmed, but the Browns have been unfortunate to be playing in the same Division as the Baltimore Ravens and that likely means a PlayOff spot for Cleveland.

They will not be offering much sympathy for the New York Quarter Back issues considering the Browns have used four players in that position this season. Veteran Joe Flacco has turned back the clock in leading the team down the stretch and the Browns have the momentum having won three games in a row.

It could be argued that this is the toughest challenge for Joe Flacco since taking over at Quarter Back for the Cleveland Browns and it will be an Offensive test for the team.

For all of the problems they have endured this season, the New York Jets Defensive unit have continued to step up and play at a high level. They will not have a lot of respect for the struggling running game of the Browns, one that has been affected by the injuries to Nick Chubb and key Offensive Linemen.

That likely means all of the pressure will be on Joe Flacco to move the chains with his arm- carving up the Houston Secondary is completely different to trying to attack the Jets Secondary and that is likely going to be an issue. The veteran will be trying to get the ball out of his hands quickly, but the Browns have to be smart with the play-calling and try and lean on their own Defensive unit.

Joe Flacco will be given some room to change things at the line of play, but he has shown he has a lot more in the tank compared with Trevor Siemian or Zach Wilson.

It looks like the Jets are going to have to go with Trevor Siemian again as Wilson continues to deal with concussion issues on a short week. This is far from ideal against this Browns Defensive unit, which has been much stronger at home than on the road, and it could be another long day for the Jets on this side of the ball.

Breece Hall will be asked to try and establish the run, but it is a big ask for any Running Back when teams are happy to load the line of scrimmage knowing there is a lack of faith in the Quarter Back. The Running Back could be a bigger threat as the safety blanket coming out of the backfield for Trevor Siemian, but being behind the chains could mean big problems for the signal caller.

For starters the Offensive Line have struggled to give Trevor Siemian to target Receivers down the field and the Browns pass rush is certainly very effective at getting to the Quarter Back and stalling drives with the pass rush pressure. The Browns Secondary have also proven how tough it can be to throw against them with that pass rush pressure generated and that can be doubled for those Quarter Backs who perhaps should not be in the NFL.

It certainly will not help Trevor Siemian that he is facing a Cleveland Secondary that have loved to pick off passes as the team have won three in a row and this is where the Browns can perhaps pull away for a big win.

You have to believe 20 points could be enough for Cleveland to cover this line, but picking up short fields from turnovers may see them get up to around 28 points.

That should be good enough for Cleveland as long as Joe Flacco is able to play a largely clean game of his own and the Browns can earn their PlayOff spot in front of their own fans.


Detroit Lions @ Dallas Cowboys Pick: Back to back losses to teams from the AFC East have just dropped the Dallas Cowboys (11-5) behind the Philadelphia Eagles in the race to be crowned NFC East Champions. The Number 1 Seed looks to be out of reach already, but the Cowboys will still believe that two wins to round off the regular season may still be good enough to earn the Divisional crown.

Beating the Detroit Lions (11-4), who have secured the NFC North Division after winning at the Minnesota Twins in Week 16, will go a long way to making sure the winner of the NFC East is able to at least secure the Number 2 Seed in the Conference.

The Lions may still hold out some hope that they can earn the top Seed in the Conference by winning their remaining two games. However, the main ambition for the Detroit Lions is that they can at least show they are ready to compete in the PlayOffs by performing with confidence in this Week 17 game on Saturday evening.

There is no doubting that the Dallas Cowboys have been a much more effective Offensive unit at home so you have to believe they are going to bounce back from road losses at the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins. Dak Prescott and company have not played well in those games, but being back at home makes Dallas dangerous and a team to be respected.

In saying that, Dallas have a banged up Offensive Line and it might make it very difficult for Tony Pollard to establish the run against the Lions Defensive Line which has shown strength up front.

Injuries in the Secondary have left some major gaps that Dak Prescott should be able to exploit, although having a banged up Offensive Line means he is likely going to be under more pressure than he has been used to this season. The Lions have a pass rush that is capable of making big plays up front and that may see them stall a couple of Dallas drives and give the Offensive unit every chance of keeping this game very competitive.

Jared Goff, like many Quarter Backs all around the NFL, will also garner plenty of attention at the position, but Head Coach Dan Campbell has long felt the team need to run the ball efficiently if the Lions are going to have a deep PlayOff impact. In recent games the Detroit Offensive Line have ripped open big lanes for David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs, the rookie being particularly exciting to watch, and that has helped the team stay in front of the down and distance.

They are expected to be able to run the ball right at the Dallas Cowboys in this one with the latter's Defensive Line struggling to control things up front.

This should only mean life is more comfortable for Jared Goff, especially as a strong running game could negate the power of the Dallas pass rush. It will also give the Quarter Back an opportunity to make some risk-averse throws to keep the chains moving and the Detroit Lions do have a chance to show the kind of threat they can be in the post-season.

Dan Campbell has proven to be a very good Head Coach and his Lions team are 6-3 against the spread in the last couple of seasons when set as the road underdog.

It is tough to oppose the Cowboys at home considering the dominant wins they have produced for much of the season, but injuries are hurting them. If they begin to get away from the Lions, Dallas could win by a wide margin by forcing Detroit to become a little one-dimensional and predictable.

However, the Lions look to be playing well enough to keep this within the spread set and especially with some of the sharp money coming down in favour of the road underdog.


Los Angeles Rams @ New York Giants Pick: Last year the defence of the Super Bowl crown won inside their own Stadium came to a limp end, but the Los Angeles Rams (8-7) are back in a strong position to reach the post-season. A number of changes have been made to the team that won the Super Bowl, but Matthew Stafford and Aaron Donald are both still around and five wins from the last six games played means the Rams could have the momentum to be a very dangerous Wild Card team.

They are not expected to finish higher than the Number 6 Seed in the NFC Seeding, but the Rams will be focusing on trying to keep pushing as hard as they can.

Beating the New York Giants (5-10) on the road may be good enough for the Rams to officially secure their spot in the PlayOffs with the right combination of results in Week 17. That will also allow Los Angeles to not have to face a big Week 18 game against the San Francisco 49ers feeling the pressure of needing a win so the players should be focused and ready to compete.

The Giants may be ready to play spoiler, but it has been a difficult season for the team and elimination has been confirmed. They have a rematch with the much hated Philadelphia Eagles next week and there is little doubt that they may be focusing on that already.

Another Quarter Back change is being made after Tyrod Taylor sparked the team in the second half of a narrow Christmas Day loss to the aforementioned Eagles, although big plays from the Defensive unit and Special Teams made the difference for them. They will need more of that if they are going to knock off the Los Angeles Rams, but Taylor has to give them a spark Offensively for another outing.

There will be pressure on Tyrod Taylor considering the Giants match ups with this Los Angeles Rams Defensive unit.

Running the ball with a dual-threat at Quarter Back should be a little easier, but the Rams Defensive Line have been the strength of this Los Angeles team and they will believe they can limit Taylor and Saquon Barkley on the ground. There are holes in the Secondary that the Quarter Back can exploit, but the Giants are likely to be playing in obvious passing situations at times and that could see Los Angeles make some plays against this New York Offensive Line which has been banged up and struggled to give any Quarter Back time in the pocket.

Tyrod Taylor is athletic enough to extend plays, but will have to be careful about making mistakes when throwing that could give the Rams an opportunity to pull away.

Matthew Stafford and the Rams Offensive unit may need those extra possessions to ensure they can keep the Giants at arm's length and that is largely down to the improvements made by New York's Defensive unit as the regular season has drawn to a close. It is still possible to run the ball against them and this Rams Offensive Line has made life comfortable for Kyren Williams, while that balance on this side of the ball has really given the Rams some punch.

With the team establishing the run, Matthew Stafford's veteran nous at Quarter Back should mean he makes the right reads when it comes to throwing the ball. Despite the improvements, it has been possible to make some solid plays through the air against the Giants and Los Angeles can travel across the country and produce a big performance.

Motivation is not always a good indicator of how a game will be played, but it is hard to ignore the fact that this game is in a Eagles sandwich as far as the New York Giants are concerned. Even the fans are more likely to be focusing on a strong end in Week 18, which may spoil some of the Eagles chances of winning the Super Bowl and the players are on a short week.

Backing the Rams outdoors on the East Coast does not feel like a great place to be- however, they pushed the Baltimore Ravens all the way in their one loss during their last six games and the Rams could easily have won on the road that day. The hosts might not be prepared for the maximum effort and that should help the 2021 Super Bowl Champions to earn the victory and cover here.


San Francisco 49ers @ Washington Commanders Pick: A Christmas Day blowout was most unexpected for every San Francisco 49ers (11-4) fan in attendance. They were a big favourite on the night, but Brock Purdy imploded and the Baltimore Ravens made a mark, although not one that will prevent the 49ers from securing the top Seed in the NFC with two wins to round out the season.

They look in a strong position to bounce back, even in the early kick off time on Sunday, as the 49ers travel across the nation to take on the Washington Commanders (4-11) who have lost six in a row.

Big changes are going to be made in Washington at the end of this season with the likelihood the team will be searching for a new Head Coach and then a new Quarter Back. Sam Howell has not really shown he has enough to be built around and would be losing the starting role, but Jacoby Brissett is banged up and may not be able to go.

Jacoby Brissett almost led the Commanders back for a big win at the New York Jets in Week 16, but is dealing with a hamstring issue. Brian Robinson Jr is also expected to be ruled out and the Washington Offensive Line is hurt, which makes it very hard to believe that they are going to be able to get much going on this side of the ball.

With full health you could make a case for the Commanders to be able to establish the run- it is not expected to be the case on Sunday and that should mean the pressure is on the shoulders of Sam Howell. Unfortunately, the Quarter Back has shown a tendency to throw Interceptions and losing Fumbles and that should give the 49ers a chance to bounce back from the disappointing Christmas Day outcome.

A short week and travelling across the country is far from ideal, but the San Francisco 49ers look to have avoided some serious looking injuries. Trent Williams is back in practice and has proven to be a big factor in the San Francisco running successes and so it is very, very important to have him back.

With a depleted Washington Defensive Line in front of them, Christian McCaffrey and the San Francisco Offensive Line is likely going to be ripping off huge yards on the ground. It should allow Brock Purdy to just recover his rhythm after the nightmare suffered on Christmas Day, and he should be given plenty of protection to do that.

It helps the Commanders are without key personnel in the Secondary and the feeling is that we will see a big bounce back from the 49ers.

Covering this kind of number is never easy, especially on the road, but the 49ers have won four road games and all by at least 16 points so they can be backed here to recover from the Week 16 loss.


Arizona Cardinals @ Philadelphia Eagles Pick: The home loss to the San Francisco 49ers might cost the Philadelphia Eagles (11-4) the top Seed in the NFC, but the key right now is to win the NFC East. If the Dallas Cowboys have won on Saturday, the Eagles will be back behind their big rivals in the standings, but Philadelphia will feel they can win out and secure what would likely be the Number 2 Seed.

That will mean two home PlayOff games at the very least, while the Eagles may also have a bit more momentum to take into the post-season. Recent weeks have seen many question whether this team is good enough to return to the Super Bowl, but the Eagles themselves are confident and a three game winning run to enter the PlayOffs will certainly increase that belief.

They will be big favourites to win both remaining games, but Philadelphia will know that mistakes or over-confidence will leave the door ajar for the Dallas Cowboys to win the NFC East.

First up is the Arizona Cardinals (3-12), who may still believe a couple of losses will land them the top Draft Pick in 2024.

Professionals will want to make sure they are proving they are still good enough to keep around for any rebuild though and that will mean the Cardinals refuse to roll over. However, they have lost four of their last five games and Arizona have been relatively uncompetitive in defeats to the San Francisco 49ers and Chicago Bears.

Offensively the Cardinals should have some success as long as this game is close and they can lean on James Connor at Running Back and the legs of Quarter Back Kyler Murray. The Offensive Line have opened up some big holes for the team on the ground and they will be looking to run right at the Eagles, even if the latter have a Defensive Line that have continued to play the run pretty well.

Injuries in the Secondary should give Kyler Murray an opportunity to have some success throwing the ball, although Marquise Brown is missing and that is a big blow to this Receiving corps. Kyler Murray has been inconsistent on his return from a long recovery from injury, while he will feel some pass rush pressure when dropping back to throw. This could lead to some mistakes and Murray and company cannot afford those if they are going earn an upset.

After recent struggles, this is also a chance for the Eagles to show out Offensively and they were finding something of a rhythm in their win over the New York Giants.

Everything begins with the ability to run the ball and this looks a perfect game for the Eagles to grind it out on the ground. Jalen Hurts is perhaps not playing at 100% and that has stopped him from running the ball himself as much as usual, but the Offensive Line and the Running Backs should make plenty of hay.

Jalen Hurts will have time to locate his Receivers down the field and the expectation is that the Eagles will be able to do much of what they would like Offensively. This should see them pull away for a big win, although it does mean avoiding the kind of mistakes that allowed the Giants to recover and get much closer than they should have been in Week 16.

Everyone associated with Philadelphia will want to see things cleaned up in the final home game in the regular season and hope to see the Eagles back here either in Wild Card Weekend or, even better, the Divisional Round.

Clearing this spread will mean a strong late Defensive effort more often than not, but the Cardinals have suffered some blowout losses when the game state has forced them to throw much more than they would like. This could be the case again and the Eagles should be able to win and cover.


Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans Pick: Trevor Lawrence is injured and the Jacksonville Jaguars have continued to slide, which should open the door for the Indianapolis Colts and Houston Texans (8-7) to try and take home the AFC South Division and earn a home PlayOff game in the Wild Card Round.

However, both the Colts and Texans were beaten in Week 16 and Houston have lost three of their last five games to fail to really capitalise on the Jaguars run of defeats.

It did not help that they have been without CJ Stroud in their last couple of games, but the rookie Quarter Back has been cleared to return this week. The Texans were still able to beat the Tennessee Titans (5-10) on the road without Stroud a couple of weeks ago, but having the rookie back behind Center has to give Houston a lot more confidence with the spread back in their favour.

The feeling is that Will Levis, another rookie Quarter Back, will be able to return for the Tennessee Titans who are the only team eliminated in the AFC South. This is now a learning year for the Quarter Back and the Titans will want Levis to pick up as many snaps as possible as the season winds down.

He could have success on his return to the starting line up, although Will Levis will have to do plenty of his own work.

The Titans have consistently been a team that loves to run the ball and open up the passing lanes, but this year has been a struggle for the Offensive Line and Derrick Henry. They are also going to be facing a Texans Defensive Line that have been stout when it comes to defending the run, although Will Levis will have some spaces in the Secondary to attack.

A major problem is that the Offensive Line have struggled as much in pass protection as they have in run blocking and Will Levis is not going to have a lot of time to allow routes to develop down the field. It was a Houston Sack that injured Levis a couple of weeks ago and he will likely be facing a lot of pressure again.

CJ Stroud will sympathise with being Sacked and injured and he is going to be playing behind a shaky Offensive Line of his own, while returning from a two game absence. We have seen enough from the Quarter Back to believe he can overcome those issues, while the team were able to earn some big yards on the ground against the Titans Defensive Line in Nashville.

That will aid Stroud and he is a better Quarter Back than Davis Mills and/or Case Keenum who will be able to exploit the passing lanes that may be opened up by Devin Singletary pounding the rock. The Titans Secondary have played well enough in recent games, but this will be a different test against CJ Stroud and Houston can turn the screw in the second half to win and cover the spread.

Of course Houston are playing with more pressure knowing they are chasing the AFC South Divisional crown, but the home fans can carry them forward and the Texans should be able to complete a second win over the Titans.


Cincinnati Bengals @ Kansas City Chiefs Pick: In recent years we have become used to seeing the Kansas City Chiefs (9-6) hosting the AFC Championship Game and earning the top Seed in the Conference. This time they are not going to be able to finish in that position in the final standings, but the bigger concern for the defending Super Bowl Champions is finding their lost mojo.

Four losses in their last six games means there is little momentum going into the post-season, while the players may be the ones who believe the most about the chances of Kansas City defending their crown as Champions.

Another disappointing defeat suffered in Week 16, which was played on Christmas Day, has underlined the problems the Kansas City Chiefs are having Offensively.

They will be hoping they can find some chemistry in the final home game of the season when the Chiefs host the Cincinnati Bengals (8-7) who were blown out by the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 16.

Cincinnati have had two extra days to prepare for this game, but they are under pressure to finish the season with two wins. Next week they will be facing a Cleveland team that has secured a Wild Card berth at the least and who may not have a lot of motivation to play their starters, although all the Bengals can do right now is focus on winning in Week 17 and seeing how things stand after that.

The injury to Joe Burrow was supposed to have ended the Bengals season, but Jake Browning has not played badly when he has not faced the Steelers. The Quarter Back has led the Cincinnati Bengals to defeats in both games against Pittsburgh, which could be a significant tie-breaker when all is said and done in the regular season, but Jake Browning is 3-0 in the other three games started in place of Burrow.

You could argue that the inexperienced Quarter Back has only produced his best when facing the weaker Defensive units and the Steelers have shown how quickly games can get away from Jake Browning. The Kansas City Chiefs would have studied that and they look to match up pretty well with the Bengals on this side of the ball.

Despite the poor run of form overall, the Chiefs Defensive unit will feel they are playing their part in trying to make the team successful. While it has been possible to put some strong runs together against them, the Bengals Offensive Line have not been dominant up front and the Kansas City Defensive Line may be able to control the line of scrimmage and force Browning to beat them through the air.

The numbers have been solid, but Jake Browning will be facing a young, strong Kansas City Secondary who have only thrived thanks to the pass rush pressure the team can put together. Jake Browning could potentially have Ja'Marr Chase back in the Wide Receiver starting position, but he might not be grateful for some of the comments made by Chase this week and especially when he remains Questionable to play.

It will be difficult for the Bengals to move the ball with any consistency in this one, although Las Vegas showed that you do not have to do a lot Offensively to beat the Kansas City Chiefs. The Raiders had 205 yards Offensively, but they were able to capitalise on mistakes made by Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.

This has to be the aim for the Bengals to give Jake Browning extra possessions, even if they are not able to match the Raiders and score two Defensive Touchdowns.

Isiah Pacheco is a doubt and backup Clyde Edwards-Helaire may also be missing, so there is more pressure for Patrick Mahomes and his Receivers to get onto the same page. You have to believe the Chiefs will try and find other ways to establish some sort of run game, especially with the issues in the passing game, but the Bengals are ending this season with strong play from the Defensive Line.

One-dimensional or not, Patrick Mahomes has to believe he can bounce back from a really poor Christmas Day effort.

He might have had 235 passing yards, but Mahomes threw two Interceptions and those proved to be the difference on the day. He will have spaces to exploit in the Bengals Secondary, but Patrick Mahomes will have to deal with the Cincinnati pass rush and also hope his Receivers can step up to make the plays that have been missing for the team for much of the season.

Turnovers have been a feature for the Bengals, but the last game at Arrowhead Stadium in the regular season has to see Kansas City bounce back, even on a short week.

The Defensive unit will play their part and Kansas City can avoid the mistakes that have been plaguing them.

The rivalry with the Cincinnati Bengals should motivate the home fans to get behind the players and push them into PlayOffs, albeit Wild Card Weekend rather than the Divisional Round where recent post-season runs have begun.

MY PICKS: Cleveland Browns - 7.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Detroit Lions + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Los Angeles Rams - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
San Francisco 49ers - 13.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 11.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Houston Texans - 3.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Kansas City Chiefs - 6.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Week 16: 5-4, + 0.66 Units (9 Units Staked, + 7.33% Yield)
Week 15: 5-4, + 0.60 Units (9 Units Staked, + 6.67% Yield)
Week 14: 5-3, + 1.58 Units (8 Units Staked, + 19.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-2, - 1.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 23.60% Yield)
Week 12: 6-1, + 5.23 Units (8 Units Staked, + 65.38% Yield)
Week 11: 5-2, + 2.54 Units (7 Units Staked, + 36.29% Yield)
Week 10: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 9: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 8: 2-2-1, - 0.18 Units (5 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)
Week 7: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.40% Yield)
Week 6: 4-3, + 0.56 Units (7 Units Staked, + 8% Yield)
Week 5: 4-3-1, + 2.46 Units (10 Units Staked, + 24.60% Yield)
Week 4: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 3: 4-4, + 0.43 Units (9 Units Staked, + 4.78% Yield)
Week 2: 3-4-2, - 1.36 Units (12 Units Staked, - 11.33% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.51 Units (7 Units Staked, + 35.86% Yield)

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