There is no getting away from the fact that the College Football Picks have been poor this season, but the regular season still has a number of weeks to go before the conclusion and then we get into Championship Week.
That gives me time to turn things around, but I would like to see something positive in Week 11 as the season continues.
LSU Tigers @ Arkansas Razorbacks Pick: After finishing with a 6-7 record in 2021, having eleven returning players on both sides of the ball and a new Head Coach in Brian Kelly, not many felt this would be the season in which the LSU Tigers (7-2) would be challenging in the SEC West. The loaded Division is filled with some of the best teams in the nation, but the Tigers earned a massive upset in Week 10 which has given them a 5-1 record in the Conference and an inside track to the SEC Championship Game.
Two tough road games are left within the Conference after Brian Kelly made the bold move of going for two in Overtime to upset the Alabama Crimson Tide and effectively end Nick Saban's hopes of reaching the College Football PlayOff. The LSU Tigers will likely have to win out, including a likely upset of the Georgia Bulldogs, to have any hope of becoming the first two loss team to reach the PlayOff, but the Head Coach is trying to keep the players focused and make sure they are not thinking too far ahead.
Let's face facts, this is the ultimate letdown spot for the Tigers as the road favourite just one week after upsetting Alabama at home as an almost two Touchdown underdog. The Tigers are also facing the Arkansas Razorbacks (5-4) who are coming in off an upset defeat to the Liberty Flames and who are going to be well short of the nine wins recorded in 2021.
That loss in Week 10 at home will have really hurt and it also means the Razorbacks are still searching for one more win to become Bowl eligible for a third season in a row. Head Coach Sam Pittman will have been really disappointed with the defeat to Liberty, but he is expecting starting Quarter Back KJ Jefferson to be much healthier this week compared to where he was in that defeat.
Brian Kelly has made it clear that his Tigers team should be well aware that they have the inside track to the SEC Championship Game, but a defeat will open the door to Alabama or the Mississippi Rebels to sneak through. He has also been reminding his team of the fact they were beaten by the Razorbacks in 2021 and so would be foolish to overlook the potential of the home team and I do think that motivational factor should cover the letdown spot.
Controlling the line of scrimmage will be the key for both the Tigers and Razorbacks in this game as it will mean establishing the run and giving their Quarter Back an opportunity to attack vulnerable Secondaries. It will also ease the pass rush that both LSU and Arkansas have been able to produce in recent games, but a telling difference could be the ailments that KJ Jefferson is dealing with compared with Jayden Daniels who has looked healthy at Quarter Back for the Tigers.
Both should be able to have strong outings, but if Jefferson is still not at 100%, we saw last week that he can be guilty of making some bad mistakes against the Liberty Flames and this LSU Tigers team may be bouncing a little more.
Jayden Daniels has been careful with the ball in recent games and that has helped the LSU Tigers win three games in a row since their blowout loss to the Tennessee Volunteers. The Tigers have also won road games at Auburn and Florida within the SEC this season and that should at least mean the team is confident in performing in Fayetteville.
Arkansas have to be respected as they have performed well as the home underdog with Sam Pittman at Head Coach, but they were blown out by the Alabama Crimson Tide here.
The poor scheduling spot is a real concern for the LSU Tigers, but this is a team who have been very good playing with revenge and I think they will do enough in this one to win and cover.
Missouri Tigers @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: A defeat to the Georgia Bulldogs likely means there is no opportunity to play for the SEC Championship this season, but 2022 could still be a very successful year for the Tennessee Volunteers (8-1). The unbeaten run is over, but the way the College Football scene is breaking down, the Volunteers can finish off very strongly through their remaining three regular season games and hope that is enough to make the PlayOff as a one loss, non-Conference Champion.
Make no mistake, the Volunteers will be upset with the defeat to the Bulldogs, but it was not a blow out and they will feel a second crack at the defending Champions could see a different result. That loss is also one that will hold a lot of weight with the PlayOff Committee if the Georgia Bulldogs go on and finish the regular season unbeaten and then win the SEC Championship Game as they are favoured to do.
The Clemson Tigers losing last week has opened the door for a non-Conference Champion to push into the top four and it says everything you need to know that Tennessee only slipped to Number 5 following the defeat in Week 10. Two of the teams ahead of them have to play one another before all is said and done (Ohio State and Michigan) and so style points may end up being very important for the Volunteers if there are three unbeaten Conference Champions.
I still think that is a long shot with the feeling being the SEC and Big Ten will have the only unbeaten Champions and so Tennessee have plenty of motivation to take into Week 11 as they look to bounce back.
This is a tough test for the Volunteers as they play their final home game of the season against the Missouri Tigers (4-5) who have yet to have a winning season under Head Coach Eliah Drinkwitz. However, the Tigers are happy with the Coaching and an extension has been agreed with Drinkwitz as Missouri look for two more wins to make them Bowl eligible.
Missouri have won at least six games in four of their last five seasons, but the narrow loss to the Kentucky Wildcats in Week 10 has left them in a difficult position. The remaining two games following this one are both being played in Columbia so the Tigers will still be confident, while they have challenged every opponent they have faced since the Week 2 blow out at the hands of the Kansas State Wildcats.
The run includes an Overtime loss at Auburn, a 4 point loss to the Georgia Bulldogs and a 7 point loss at the Florida Gators so many may feel the Missouri Tigers are receiving plenty of points in this one. I have to feel the same, although the motivation of the Tennessee Volunteers and the strong record playing following a loss under Josh Heupel does lean me towards a big win for the home team in Knoxville.
After seeing the Offensive unit slowed down by the Bulldogs last week, I am expecting Hendon Hooker to come out and lead the Volunteers to strong drives through much of this game. They are facing a tough Missouri Defensive unit that can be strong at the line of scrimmage, but the Tigers have not really run into too many Offenses like the one the Volunteers will be bringing onto the field.
The Tennessee Offensive Line have something to prove as they have not really helped the team establish the run as well as they would have liked in recent games, while the pass protection has not been as good as it should be either. However, I think Hendon Hooker and the Receiving corps can win enough battles on the outside to keep the chains moving when they take to the air and the Quarter Back has largely been very careful with the ball to avoid the turnovers that proved fatal last week.
While I am expecting Missouri to make some plays with their Defensive unit, stopping the Volunteers after the way the Bulldogs managed it will be much more difficult. I expect the home team to add a few more creases to the game plan to try and keep the Tigers off-balance and that may see them get back to the kind of output we had been used to seeing before Week 10.
Covering the spread won't be easy unless the Volunteers Defensive unit play their part and they showed against the Georgia Bulldogs that Tennessee are pretty good on this side of the ball. The Offensive unit will always generate the headlines, but Tennessee will feel they can clamp down at the line of scrimmage and make the Missouri Tigers pretty one-dimensional Offensively.
Brady Cook has needed more support from his running game and the Quarter Back has thrown more Interceptions than Touchdown passes this season. He has been averaging less than 200 passing yards per game in the last three and I do think this game could get away from Missouri if they have to rely on their passing game to stay with the Volunteers.
The Quarter Back will be throwing into a Tennessee Secondary that have played well in recent games and I do think the Tigers could have issues sustaining drives. The backdoor cover could b open here with the number of points on the spread, but the Volunteers will be looking to match the Michigan Wolverines in putting up style points to convince the Committee that one loss does not define who they are.
Tennessee are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven games following a loss, while the last two wins over the Missouri Tigers have been by 23 points or more. I expect the spread will come down to the last couple of possessions, but I am looking for the Volunteers to bounce back in strong fashion and cover this mark against this Divisional rival.
Alabama Crimson Tide @ Mississippi Rebels Pick: Ruling out any Nick Saban team to make the College Football PlayOff in mid-November has been a mistake more often than not, but we have yet to see a two loss team reach the final four and it would be a massive surprise if the Alabama Crimson Tide (7-2) are the first. Losses to the Tennessee Volunteers and LSU Tigers means they are very unlikely to make the SEC Championship Game and it will be far from easy for the Head Coach to lift the players.
Both losses have been very close and the LSU Tigers going for two in Overtime last week will have stung the confidence of the Alabama players. They need significant help to win the SEC West now, but all the Crimson Tide can do is try and win out and see where the chips lie.
Alabama will head to Oxford to take on the Mississippi Rebels (8-1) in Week 11, another SEC West team needing some help if they are going to reach the Championship Game. The Rebels have one fewer Conference defeats than the Crimson Tide, but that loss was also to the LSU Tigers and means Mississippi need to win out and hope LSU lose one of their remaining two SEC games.
With that in mind, there is everything to play for in this huge SEC game and the Alabama Crimson Tide are a pretty big favourite all things considered. They have had a tendency to bounce back from losses, although the one suffered last week to the Tigers and the manner in which the game ended will be a real test of the mental strength of the Alabama players.
Heavy reliance on the Bryce Young arm at Quarter Back has proven to be a mistake from Alabama and you have to imagine they are going to try and go back to basics this week. I still expect Young to throw plenty, but Alabama's Offensive Line should be tasked with establishing the run more effectively than they were last week and especially against this Rebels Defensive Line which has struggled at the line of scrimmage.
In the last three games, Alabama have been surprisingly poor running the ball with just 3.2 yards per carry put together by the team. However, I think the Offensive Co-Ordinator needs to take some of the blame for moving away from the run and this is an Alabama team who are still averaging almost 6 yards per carry over the course of the season.
Establishing the run will only make things that much more comfortable for Bryce Young and the passing game and the Rebels have struggled to stop teams both on the ground and through the air. Slowing down the pass rush would be a bonus for the Quarter Back and the feeling is that Alabama will have a big game on this side of the ball.
The question in relation to the spread is whether the Mississippi Rebels are playing well enough Offensively to keep up on the scoreboard?
Much will depend on the line of scrimmage when the Mississippi Rebels have the ball with the team hammering teams on the ground in recent games, but now having to face an Alabama Defensive Line which is still pretty stout. Both LSU and Tennessee have been able to have enough success on the ground to find the balance in their Offensive play, but the Crimson Tide may not believe Ole Miss can throw the ball as well as Hendon Hooker and Jayden Daniels and that may see Alabama sell out to stop the run.
Jaxson Dart has not been as efficient as those two Quarter Backs mentioned and he could be facing an Alabama pass rush that puts him under enough duress to extract a mistake or two from his game. I do think Dart and the Rebels Offensive unit will have some success considering the likely letdown spot for the Crimson Tide who are going to come up way short of expectations, but the Rebels were blown out in their loss to the LSU Tigers and I do think they will struggle to keep up on the scoreboard.
Alabama have won six in a row against the Mississippi Rebels and the last five have all come by at least 15 points per game.
The Crimson Tide have also covered in their last five games following a straight up loss, while Mississippi are 1-6 against the spread in their last seven home games and just 1-4 against the spread in their last five following a Bye Week.
Disappointment will be hard to shift for the road team, but I am also expecting an angry Alabama with a point to prove after all the criticism they have been facing over the last week. This could show up on the scoreboard with the Crimson Tide producing a rare big road win against an SEC rival as I look for them to win this one by a couple of Touchdowns when all is said and done in Oxford.
MY PICKS: LSU Tigers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Tennessee Volunteers - 19.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Michigan State Spartans - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Penn State Nittany Lions - 10.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 11.5 Points @ 2.00 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington State Cougars - 9.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
North Carolina Tar Heels + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Week 10: 4-5, - 1.33 Units (9 Units Staked, - 14.78% Yield)
Week 9: 3-4, - 1.33 Units (7 Units Staked, - 19% Yield)
Week 8: 3-5, - 2.23 Units (8 Units Staked, - 27.88% Yield)
Week 7: 2-5, - 3.18 Units (7 Units Staked, - 45.43% Yield)
Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)
Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)
Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)
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