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Saturday 15 October 2022

Boxing Picks 2022- Deontay Wilder vs Robert Helenius (October 15th)

A week can be a long time and especially in a sport like Boxing.

This time last week there would have been a queue of people lined up to knock anyone who may be associated with Boxing or consider themselves a fan of the sport after the debacle around the Conor Benn vs Chris Eubank Jr fight.

A failed test seemingly would not have been enough for the promoters to pull the plug on the event, but a leaked report to the media meant it was almost impossible for the bout to take place.

I say almost impossible because it sounds like Matchroom and Wasserman were going to do all in their power to make the British Boxing Board of Control bend to their will and sanction the fight despite the failed test that had made it into the mainstream, but ultimately the decision to postpone HAD to be made.

It still left a pretty sick taste in the mouth to believe that this fight would have taken place if there had not been a leak to the press, while it does make me wonder how many other fights have been pushed through despite adverse findings in tests prior to the Boxers entering the ring. And after all we have heard from Eddie Hearn when there have been failed tests outside of his stable, it was embarrassing for him to suggest there was no reason the BBBC would have to fail to sanction the go-ahead for the Saturday card.

You don't want to make sweeping statements about Conor Benn's guilt, but it is a terrible look for Boxing to have him not only fail a test, but then to suggest he is a 'clean athlete' who believed the fight should not have been postponed. I think he should have due process, but that should occur before he is allowed to exchange punches with anyone else.

Hearing the likes of Hearn deflecting the attention away from the facts and using smoke and mirrors to confuse fans in the aftermath of the decision to postpone has caused further embarrassment for those involved in the sport and it is good to see a solid schedule in the United Kingdom and United States on Saturday to get people refocused on the athletes that deserve the spotlight.


It has been three weeks since the last Boxing Picks on this page as Joe Joyce's late Stoppage over Joseph Parker prevented a huge drop in the overall profit for the year.

There are some big weekends left before the 2022 season is completed, but I am looking for a productive conclusion to round off a winning year.



Claressa Shields vs Savannah Marshall

This entire card was supposed to take place in early September, but the passing of Queen Elizabeth II meant a five week postponement to a historic event.

Thankfully we are going to actually have Boxing making headlines for events taking place inside the ring rather than outside like last week, and the all-Women's card at the O2 Arena in London has certainly earned the right for some positive stories.

Top of the bill is the grudge fight between Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall with all of the belts at Middleweight on the line in London. Much has been made of the fact that Marshall is the sole person to have beaten Shields in a Boxing ring in their amateur days, while the British World Champion has been Knocking Out opponents to build her reputation.

Many of those Stopped have been common opponents with Claressa Shields, who is much more a Boxer than a power puncher, and Savannah Marshall supporters are insistent she will be too big and too strong for the American.

However, there are some questions for Savannah Marshall to answer- this is the best opponent she will have faced in her professional career and she will have to find a way to cut off the ring and get into a position to land her power punches against a slick Boxer. The Brit has also admitted that she struggled to deal with pressure in her younger days and this may be the most pressurised situation Savannah Marshall has been in since fighting at the London Olympics in 2012, when she was beaten in the First Round.

A relatively early defeat in the Rio Olympics would have been a blow too, but Marshall feels she has built her confidence under Peter Fury and she has run through her opponents since turning pro.

It has been much different for Claressa Shields who won Gold Medals at both of those Olympic Games mentioned and who has won plenty of World Titles since turning professional. She has looked for challenges and that has seen Shields enter the cage and move into the MMA arena, but this is a fight that will have been easy to motivate the American and she has been a confident figure throughout.

I think things would feel a lot tougher for Claressa Shields if this was a Twelve Round, three minute World Title fight, but a Ten Rounder with two minute Rounds looks to favour her. Claressa Shields is massively talented, but I do think the 16 minute difference between the Men's World Title fights and the Women's makes it that much easier to believe that Shields will be able to box and move and make sure she is not having to deal with the Savannah Marshall power.

It is Boxing and it is impossible to avoid being hit for the full amount of time in the ring, but I do think Savannah Marshall will likely have needed a bit more time to see if she could have worn down Claressa Shields. The slight underdog is the bigger women and there is no doubting the Savannah Marshall power, but I do think Claressa Shields is technically very, very strong and ultimately she can box her way around the power and find a way to win this one on the cards.

Prior to the build up of this fight I don't think I had the best impression of Claressa Shields and would have loved to see the GWOAT humbled, but she has come off much better than I anticipated. I do have a lot of time for Marshall too and her build to this level has been a lot of fun to watch, but the feeling is that she may come up a touch short and lose Six of the Ten Rounds scheduled.

Seeing this in a rematch would not be a surprise if it is competitive and I don't think either Boxer will be blown away in this one. Savannah Marshall will be dangerous for the full Ten Rounds, but Claressa Shields can stay focused and stay out of real trouble and earn that win on the cards, even in the United Kingdom where the judging can be questionable.


There is a loaded card at the O2 Arena on Saturday, but it is the chief support that will have many fans tuning in.

Both Mikaela Mayer and Alycia Baumgardner could not have sold their Unification any better and there is clearly no love lost between the two American World Champions.

I have a lot of time for Baumgardner, but my head says Mayer is going to be cool enough to stick to her Boxing and ultimately can edge out her younger opponent. Alycia Baumgardner has plenty of power, but I am not sure Mayer is going to get involved in the trenches and instead will look to use her length to keep the stronger, athletic underdog at bay.

There are some questions about the weight and whether Mikaela Mayer has had issues getting down to 130 pounds- she certainly can't have been helped by the delay in this fight from early September- but the shorter format of Women's Boxing may just mean Alycia Baumgardner doesn't have the time to really unleash her power for long enough to earn the upset.

Mikaela Mayer has shown she has a decent set of whiskers in the past, but the odds are plenty short for her to win on the cards, which feels the most likely outcome of this one.

Instead it is a chief support that looks well worth watching and I am very much looking forward to this clash.



Deontay Wilder vs Robert Helenius

A little over a year ago, a Heavyweight Boxing trilogy between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder ended decisively in favour of the Gypsy King who confirmed his place at the top of the Division.

Deontay Wilder was never convinced that he was allowed to be beaten on his own terms in the middle of the three fights, and he showed plenty of character and belief in his defeat in October 2021. Once again he had Fury on the floor twice, but it was the British fighter who prevailed with an 11th Round Knock Out and Deontay Wilder was left to contemplate retirement.

At one point it looked like that would be the decision that Wilder would make, but I think he actually earned more credit out of his defeat last year than from the majority of his forty-two wins. And once the statue of him was unveiled in Tuscaloosa, Deontay Wilder felt the love of the people that reignited the spark to return to the ring.

Big fights remain and a couple of big wins could see Deontay Wilder placed in a WBC World Title fight against Tyson Fury- that is perhaps not really the route anyone wants to see the American go, but the likes of Oleksandr Usyk, Anthony Joshua and Andy Ruiz Jr are intriguing bouts for Wilder and, importantly, likely to pay him very well.

None of that will matter if Deontay Wilder is not able to beat Robert Helenius, but I do think this is a decent enough match up for the former World Champion.

Robert Helenius was last out on the Wilder-Fury 3 undercard when beating Adam Kownacki for a second time, but this is a big step up for someone who has never really fulfilled some of the expectations that were on his shoulders when he turned professional. He may have won three in a row heading into this bout, but that run started after a Stoppage loss to Gerald Washington and I do think Helenius will struggle to keep Deontay Wilder from unloading on him.

The Nordic Nightmare is technically very good and the fundamentals and size have seen Robert Helenius cause problems for opponents, but each time he has stepped up he has been beaten.

There are going to be a couple of demons to exorcise for Deontay Wilder, and we don't really know how much the back to back losses to Tyson Fury have taken out of him.

However, I do think he will be well prepared for this kind of fight and I think the selection of Robert Helenius is clearly something his team would have thought about. It may take Deontay Wilder a couple of Rounds to shake off some of the ring rust and Robert Helenius is fighting with confidence, but at some point Wilder will detonate the right hand on someone who does not have the best head movement.

Power tends to be the last thing to go and I do think Deontay Wilder is still an exceptional finisher, especially back down at 214 pounds where his speed and athleticism can be a real advantage.

Robert Helenius is likely going to cause some problems early with his solid fundamentals, but Deontay Wilder can find his way and secure a finish around the midway mark of his comeback. The one hitter quitter is never that far away when Wilder is in the ring, but only one of his last six fights have ended before the Seventh Round and a little bit of time may be needed before putting his opponent on his back.


They are asking for more PPV money in the United States for the Wilder comeback, which is not a surprise, but at least they have put together a decent looking undercard.

A potential future Heavyweight Champion Frank Sanchez can sometimes be a little difficult to watch as fans clamour for him to step on the gas when dominating opponents. He is a quality technician, but it would be disappointing if he does not have an early night against Carlos Negron, who has a couple of very early losses on the record.


Two of the leading Bantamweights meet when Gary Antonio Russell and Emmanuel Rodriguez run it back after a no contest due to an accidental head-butt back in August 2021.

Both have had a tune up fight since then and will feel that the World Titles are going to become fractured in the Division once Naoya Inoue likely Unifies in his fight against Paul Butler in December. The winner of this one will certainly be in line to fight for one or two of the vacant belts and I think it will be a close, competitive contest.

Emmanuel Rodriguez has shown he is much more than when being wiped out by Inoue in the World Boxing Super Series, while Gary Antonio Russell remains unbeaten. The edge has to be with the latter, who may be a bit quicker and ultimately that slightly more confident with the unbeaten record behind him.

This is the toughest fight of his career, but Russell can show he is ready to move his career on and I think he will likely win this one on the cards.


The chief support to the main event sees the return of Caleb Plant and I expect him to have too much for the veteran Anthony Dirrell- there is no love lost between the pair, but Dirrell is a tough nut to crack and I think Plant will showcase his skills on his way to a Decision.



Devin Haney vs George Kambosos Jr II

Rematch clauses are all the rage in World Title fights, but some are simply not called for.

This feels like one of those after Devin Haney completely bamboozled George Kambosos Jr four months ago and took a Unanimous Decision to become the Undisputed Lightweight Champion.

Ultimately the Australian decided to take up the rematch clause and has promised to be better having failed to make weight the first time when they met in June. He looked pretty tight at the weight, but the images of Devin Haney have been even more startling compared with his look before the first fight and it is almost certain that the World Titles will break up after this one.

If Devin Haney wins, there is a big fight for him against Vasyl Lomachenko, assuming the Ukrainian returns with a win later this month. However, it might be too dangerous to try and boil down to 135 pounds again and it may make more sense to try and become a two-weight World Champion in a solid Light-Welterweight Division where the belts have split up after Josh Taylor's Unification.

For now the concentration is on this fight and I am not sure how much will have changed in four months.

Of course the weight drain is a concern, but I think George Kambosos Jr has problems making the limit too and so it may be much of a muchness. The quicker and longer Devin Haney looks to be too much for the home fighter, even if I am expecting a much more gung-ho effort from what was a surprisingly timid Kambosos Jr last time out.

Before seeing how much the weight looks to have drained him, I felt Devin Haney may be able to step on the gas this time and finish off George Kambosos Jr, who is much more likely to be willing to put himself in dangerous positions to try and get his own shots off. We did not see that last time out, but there is no rematch to fall back upon in this second fight so the expectation is that the Australian will leave it all in the ring.

Much is going to depend on how Haney feels after twenty-four hours of rehydration, but I also think Kambosos Jr looks weak at the weight.

The smart thinking is that Devin Haney may just do enough to get to the scorecards again and earn another Decision win, but there might be some mileage in taking a small interest in George Kambosos Jr emptying the tank and The Dream being able to put a combination or two together to end this one late.


Both Moloney brothers are fighting on the undercard again and I think both will win before moving onto bigger fights in 2023.

Jason Moloney can't underestimate his Thai opponent Nawaphon Kaikanha, but the latter has never fought outside his own country and this is a significant step up.

I expect Moloney to win this one and in impressive style.


Andrew Moloney is on a three fight winning run after ending on the wrong side of the trilogy with Joshua Franco and he should be able to extend that against veteran Norbelto Jimenez.

It has been a long time since Jimenez was Stopped, but I think Andrew Moloney is looking to get back in the mix with the top Super Flyweights in the World and he can put his punches together to end this one before the final bell.

MY PICKS: Claressa Shields to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Deonaty Wilder to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Frank Sanchez to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)
Gary Antonio Russell to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)
Devin Haney to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Jason Moloney to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Andrew Moloney to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 31-55, + 12.91 Units (151 Units Staked, + 8.55% Yield)

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