There were some ups and some downs over the course of Monday and the five Tennis Picks largely had a mixed day on the court.
The first four could have all won, but also all lost on another day, so the split was not too bad. Thankfully Marin Cilic did his job as expected and in routine fashion to bring in a winning day and square up the Monte Carlo Masters after the sole loss on Sunday.
The remainder of the First Round is set to be completed on Tuesday, but it is also the day Novak Djokovic returns to the court for the first time since the ATP 500 event in Dubai. The current World Number 1 has admitted it has been a difficult time for him with all of the drama around his decision to travel to the Australian Open before being forced to leave the country.
Other nations are still making it clear that unvaccinated athletes will not be able to enter their borders, but the clay court season feels like a very good time for Novak Djokovic to have some consistency in his season. Monte Carlo, Spain, Italy and France all have come to the decision they will be allowing Novak Djokovic to compete and the defending French Open Champion will be looking to put strong runs together.
He is involved in one of three Second Round matches that are scheduled to be played on Tuesday and I am looking for the momentum from Monday to move the Tennis Picks into a winning position for the tournament so far.
Novak Djokovic - 5.5 games v Alejandro Davidovich Fokina: We always want to see the top names out on the Tour, but injury means the Monte Carlo Masters will be without both Rafael Nadal and Daniil Medvedev.
Thankfully Novak Djokovic is back on Tour to add star power to a loaded draw and it sounds like the nations that will be hosting events through to the French Open will be allowing unvaccinated athletes to compete. That is big news for Novak Djokovic, as is the French lifting restrictions which means he can defend his French Open title and hopefully get some consistency with his own schedule back on the Tour.
Novak Djokovic has not played since the tournament in Dubai when he was upset in the Quarter Final against Jiri Vesely, although the World Number 1 did have a couple of solid wins before exiting the event. Playing on the clay should mean Novak Djokovic is able to build up his rhythm, although I can't forget that he was upset in this tournament twelve months ago in the build to the French Open and that was at a time when Djokovic was playing much more regularly.
You cannot make up competitive tennis conditions in practice, but Novak Djokovic is an exceptional player and I think this is a player that will be very focused with what he wants to do. I think he does benefit from playing an opponent that Djokovic will be comfortable playing as he goes up against Alejandro Davidovich Fokina who was beaten by the Serb very easily at the Rome Masters and the Tokyo Olympics.
Their match in Rome saw Novak Djokovic dominate the match and win 55% of return points against the Davidovich Fokina serve, although I expect this one to be closer considering the layoff that Djokovic has had to endure from the Tour.
Alejandro Davidovich Fokina is comfortable on the clay courts and he has won a match here in Monte Carlo already, although he was beaten in the first match played on the surface last week in Marrakech. The serve can be vulnerable on the clay courts and I think that is where Novak Djokovic, the best returner in the game, could put the Spaniard under immense pressure from the off.
His numbers on the clay courts are decent enough overall, but Alejandro Davidovich Fokina has really struggled when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months. The Spaniard seems to play the big points pretty well considering the amount of sets he has won doesn't really coincide with the numbers produced, but Novak Djokovic has been able to force his tennis to dominate the rallies between these players and I think he will find the breaks of serve to eventually pull clear and cover this big mark on his return to the Tour.
Pedro Martinez - 3.5 games v Ugo Humbert: This has been a tough year for Ugo Humbert already with a 2-7 record in 2022 and I am not sure he is going to be too happy about the move onto the clay courts. Last year Ugo Humbert finished with a 1-6 record on the clay courts and his numbers have been below average on the clay courts through much of his career.
A loss of confidence and perhaps a dislike to the surface does not really bode well for Ugo Humbert and especially not when he is facing someone who is happy on the clay.
Pedro Martinez won a title in Santiago during the Golden Swing earlier this year, although he did suffer some early losses in the other three tournaments played on the red dirt in South America. He put some battling wins together to win the title in Santiago, and the numbers in 2022 have not been eye-catching, but Pedro Martinez has been up against opponents who have also been comfortable on the clay and that is simply not the case here.
Last year the Spaniard had stronger clay court numbers and I do think the soon to be 25 year old will have enough know-how on this surface to beat Ugo Humbert. The Frenchman has only held 77% of service games on the hard courts this year, but Ugo Humbert's numbers on the clay were at 70% in 2021 and he has simply not returned as well as he would like.
This is a wide mark when you think of some of the Pedro Martinez limitations, but I do think he will have the majority of the break point chances and the confidence of Ugo Humbert is not in a good place right now. I think that will show up in this First Round match and I think Pedro Martinez will find the breaks of serve to pull away in the overall games stakes.
Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 games v Benoit Paire: The suggestion from Benoit Paire over the last couple of years is that he has not enjoyed playing tennis in front of empty stands, but the current World Number 61 has not exactly lit things up in 2022 now the fans are back. The Frenchman has a really poor 3-10 record in 2022 and Benoit Paire has been struggling with most aspects of his tennis, which makes him a vulnerable First Round player.
Things have not been much better for Benoit Paire when it has come to clay court tennis and his numbers have been pretty poor since the pandemic hit 2020. He decided to take part in the Golden Swing in South America earlier this year, but Benoit Paire returned having played in three tournaments and failed to win a single match.
Unsurprisingly the return has been working to some extent on the red dirt, but the real problem for Benoit Paire has been the poor serving. The return of serve will offer Benoit Paire a chance of winning this match, but he cannot overcome a level where he is holding just 65% of service games as he has been operating at over the last twelve months on this surface.
He is the underdog against Lorenzo Musetti, although the youngster has been having a mixed year of his own. After breaking onto the Tour with some big performances, Lorenzo Musetti is perhaps finding things more difficult now that opponents have an idea of how he plays and strengths and weaknesses on display.
Like many of his compatriots, Lorenzo Musetti is comfortable on the clay courts and he did reach the Fourth Round at Roland Garros where he held a 2-0 lead over Novak Djokovic before wearing down against the eventual French Open Champion. The Italian has reached the Quarter Final in Marrakech this season, and over the last twelve months Lorenzo Musetti has been that much stronger than Benoit Paire when it comes to holding serve which can make the difference in this First Round match.
Lorenzo Musetti was a convincing winner over Benoit Paire at the Miami Masters in 2021 and I do think he is the superior clay court player of the two. While there is still room to grow for the young Italian, I think he will have the edge in the serving department which leads to a solid win in the First Round in Monte Carlo.
MY PICKS: Novak Djokovic - 5.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Pedro Martinez - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Lorenzo Musetti - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)
David Goffin - 1.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Stefanos Tsitsipas - 4.5 Games @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Monte Carlo Update: 3-3, - 0.34 Units (12 Units Staked, - 2.83% Yield)
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