We are just about at the end of the 2021 NFL season, but there is one more game to be played before the seven month off-season.
Lots of interest will be around for the Free Agency and NFL Draft, but the Super Bowl headlines this weekend and that sees a team playing in their home Stadium for a second season in a row.
The season has not been a memorable one for the NFL Picks, but it is tough to put winning seasons together and I was much happier with the 2020 selections. However, I have at least got one more chance to end the 2021 season with a positive result.
Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams Pick: The decision to trade for Matthew Stafford looked to be one that was made with the Los Angeles Rams all in to their current window of trying to win a Super Bowl. While there have been some ups and downs in the 2021 season, there would have been plenty of people that picked the Los Angeles Rams to make the Super Bowl before the season began and so it cannot be a massive surprise.
However, it is a much different case for the Cincinnati Bengals who finished last in the AFC North last season and who were considered an improving team, but one that still had something to prove. Road wins over the top two Seeds in the AFC have seen the Bengals reach the big game and there will be plenty of belief in Ohio that their team can bring home a Super Bowl for the first time.
For the second season in a row a team will have the opportunity to play a Super Bowl in their home Stadium and that has to give the Los Angeles Rams an edge, even as the designated road team. Last season it was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers who won with home comforts and the Rams have been set as the favourite to do the same in the 2021 season.
No one should be taking a one game sample as a trend, but the Rams have to be feeling pretty good about playing at home and every team in the NFL would sign up for the opportunity to play the Super Bowl in their own Stadium. That has contributed to the Rams being the favourites, but the star-studded team would likely have gone into the Super Bowl in that spot anyway.
In saying that, the Rams are not considered a huge favourite and so Joe, Burrow not Namath, will feel the upset is entirely possible as the Bengals chase a first Super Bowl in franchise history. Having a Head Coach who is familiar with the Rams will help Cincinnati, although Sean McVay has the experience of Coaching in a Super Bowl and the loss to the New England Patriots will certainly have given him a chance to just change things around and adjust whenever he made it back to the big game.
Rumours about retirement have been shut down for Sean McVay, even as he becomes the youngest Head Coach to reach two Super Bowls, but there may not be too many more opportunities for him to add the ring to his CV.
Much of what the Rams like to do is based on their ability to run the ball, but that has remained a tough task for them even with a returning Cam Akers. Struggles against the San Francisco and Tampa Bay Defensive Lines may not be an indicator of what the Rams can do in this one though as the Bengals Defensive Line has had some difficulty containing the run throughout the PlayOff run.
Unlike the Chiefs, I don't think McVay will lean away from the run and the Rams could be very tough to stop if they are able to keep Matthew Stafford in front of the chains. Cam Akers may have a big game and that will open things up for the Quarter Back with the play-action as he looks to hit talented Receivers down the field.
Cooper Kuup is the stand out name, but Odell Beckham Jr has thrived since signing with the Rams, although Tyler Higbee will be a real loss. Even then, Los Angeles have players who can expose this Secondary and Matthew Stafford has been given plenty of time to hit his Receivers thanks to a strong Offensive Line.
The Bengals Defensive unit has made big adjustments when needed though so Zac Taylor should feel his team will avoid any potential blow out. His knowledge of the way Sean McVay likes to work should help Cincinnati formulate a good game plan on this side of the ball, while the Head Coach will firmly believe his own Quarter Back and Offense can keep the Bengals rolling.
Joe Burrow has won a National Championship at College level and he is a player who exudes confidence on and off the field and I have no doubt the Quarter Back is going to fancy winning it all. It feels like the Bengals are going to have to rely on Burrow throwing the ball as they have struggled to establish the run, even with a star player like Joe Mixon in the backfield.
Facing up to the Los Angeles Defensive Line will be a huge test for the Bengals Offense and I am not sure Joe Mixon is going to get a lot of change out of them up front. That means Joe Burrow will be relying on the Offensive Line to try and keep the likes of Von Miller and Aaron Donald from out of the backfield, something that has been an issue for the Bengals in the PlayOffs.
Even then, Joe Burrow has shown he can scramble from the pressure and still make some big throws down the field. The momentum is with the Bengals having beaten the top two Seeds in the AFC and Burrow will be very keen in throwing against a Rams Secondary which has multiple holes away from where Jalen Ramsey will be playing.
Cincinnati may not have the star names at Receiver like Los Angeles do, at least not yet, but they have a talented unit that are very capable of making big time plays across the field.
Turnovers may end up being the key to the outcome of the Super Bowl, but I can't help feel the lack of balance that Cincinnati will have will end up costing them here. I am expecting the Rams to be able to move the ball on the ground, at least more efficiently than the Cincinnati Bengals, and both teams have Receivers that can win against the Secondary players they are facing.
Being at home HAS to be an advantage, although I am not overly confident in opposing the momentum of the Cincinnati Bengals who have covered in their last five games when set as the underdog. The never say die attitude was clear in the comeback win over the Kansas City Chiefs two weeks ago, but I think the experience of the Rams helps them just turn that away.
The Rams are only 1-1 against the spread in their two PlayOff games as the favourite in their run to the Super Bowl, but I think the balance Offensively sees them become a rare Super Bowl favourite to cover in recent seasons.
MY PICK: Los Angeles Rams - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)
Championship: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Divisional: 2-2, - 0.36 Units (8 Units Staked, - 4.50% Yield)
Wild Card: 2-5, - 6.52 Units (14 Units Staked, - 46.57% Yield)
Week 18: 6-6, - 1.16 Units (24 Units Staked, - 4.83% Yield)
Week 17: 3-4, - 2.46 Units (14 Units Staked, - 17.57% Yield)
Week 16: 6-4, + 3 Units (20 Units Staked, + 15% Yield)
Week 15: 8-3, + 8.64 Units (22 Units Staked, + 39.28% Yield)
Week 14: 6-2, + 7 Units (16 Units Staked, + 43.75% Yield)
Week 13: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 12: 5-6, - 2.74 Units (22 Units Staked, - 12.45% Yield)
Week 11: 0-6, - 12 Units (12 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 10: 5-5, - 0.88 Units (20 Units Staked, - 4.40% Yield)
Week 9: 2-5, - 6.28 Units (14 Units Staked, - 44.86% Yield)
Week 8: 1-6, - 10.18 Units (14 Units Staked, - 72.71% Yield)
Week 7: 2-1, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-4, - 2.64 Units (14 Units Staked, - 18.86% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2-1, + 3.28 Units (14 Units Staked, + 23.43% Yield)
Week 4: 7-3, + 6.46 Units (20 Units Staked, + 32.30% Yield)
Week 3: 7-3, + 6.68 Units (20 Units Staked, + 33.40% Yield)
Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)
Week 1: 3-6, - 6.46 Units (18 Units Staked, - 35.89% Yield)
Season 2021: 81-80-1, - 12.54 Units (324 Units Staked, - 3.87% Yield)
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