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Friday 30 April 2021

Weekend Football Picks and Fantasy Football 2021 (April 30-May 3)

I can't believe I did not get around to posting my Wild Card team last week on Twitter, but in hindsight it probably wasn't a bad thing with some poor decisions coming back to haunt me.

I will have more thoughts on the Fantasy Football game below following my thoughts on the weekend Premier League games to come.


Southampton v Leicester City Pick: It has been nine days since Southampton have last played while Leicester City have played twice in that time and I think that is the only reason I can really provide for thinking that the home team may secure a positive result when these teams meet in the Premier League.

As well as Southampton played earlier this season, in recent months they have struggled in the Premier League for the kind of consistency that would be required.

Leicester City have momentum behind them with 3 straight wins in all competitions at a time when Southampton have lost 3 in a row. They have also gotten the mental advantage of beating Southampton twice in all competitions already this season including the narrow victory over them at Wembley Stadium in the FA Cup Semi Final.

It was a tight win and Southampton showed enough to prove they can be a dangerous team, but defensively there are issues that have not been resolved. Ultimately they give up too many chances and a team in Leicester City's form should be able to take advantage of that.

I would be stunned if we get anything near a 0-9 result that was the outcome of the corresponding fixture last season, but I am not exactly going out on a limb in saying that. Southampton's style should be one that still appeals to Leicester City though as they are unlikely to sit in and that opens them up to the counter attack and the pace Leicester City have.

The Foxes have won 3 in a row at St Mary's and I do think they are capable of adding to that run while taking another giant step towards the Champions League. It will be far from easy, but a narrow away win looks the most likely outcome of this fixture as Leicester City put the pressure on their top four rivals playing later this weekend.


Crystal Palace v Manchester City Pick: The big question this weekend is what kind of team will be selected by Pep Guardiola with the main focus being the Champions League Semi Final Second Leg which is going to be played on Tuesday.

A 10 point lead in the Premier League certainly makes the decision process easier for the manager of Manchester City and I do think some of the key names will be left out to rest and get ready for another tough game against Paris Saint-Germain.

However, this is a deep squad and I do think even a changed Manchester City team can continue getting the better of Crystal Palace at Selhurst Park. The home team will have their own motivation questioned, even if they played well at the King Power Stadium on Monday night, while Crystal Palace continue to look vulnerable defensively.

Chelsea exposed that to devastating effect in the 1-4 win here last month, but this one should be more competitive considering the likely changes in the away line up.

Even then, Manchester City should be able to keep the momentum going having won 3 in a row in all competitions and their last 10 away Premier League games. They have scored for fun in those away games, but Manchester City have also been secure defensively which has seen 7 of those 10 victories come by two or more goals.

I would certainly keep an eye out on team news if you are backing Manchester City to win this game on Saturday, but I am taking that into consideration. They have won their last 2 games here by a couple of goal margins and with the likes of Raheem Sterling and Gabriel Jesus in attacking areas, I think they are likely to have the attacking players to keep that trend going through another season.

Crystal Palace did play well in the first half at Leicester City, but they can't seem to keep the back door shut with the amount of defensive injuries being dealt with. That is a major concern when playing Manchester City and the visitors can win and potentially be crowned Champions later this weekend.


Brighton v Leeds United Pick: Two teams that play eye pleasing football meet at the Amex Stadium on Saturday, but I can't help think Brighton look vulnerable as the favourite.

There is no denying the football that Graham Potter's men have been playing and the amount of chances they create, but Brighton continue to show a lack of composure in the final third. It was evident in the defeat to Sheffield United last weekend and Brighton can't afford to be as wasteful against a team like Leeds United.

It might not be as easy for them to create chances in this game either with Leeds United showing a little more resilience of late than they have for much of the season. Marcelo Bielsa is clearly tactically astute enough to know his team needed tightening up, but Leeds United have lost none of their attacking thrust and back to back away wins will give them confidence.

Leeds United do have a terrible record at Brighton which is hard to ignore, but a single goal could be enough to avoid a defeat here. Raphinha's continued absence is a big blow for Leeds United, but they still have enough in the final third to think they can score against Brighton, despite the two home clean sheets The Seagulls have produced in succession.

At some point you do wonder if things will click for Brighton as it did in their 3-0 home win over Newcastle United, but they have won 1 of their last 5 at the Amex Stadium. It is more than being unlucky at this point of the season and Graham Potter will likely be looking to bolster his front line in the summer, but for now Brighton may just struggle to earn more than a point from this fixture.


Chelsea v Fulham Pick: The Chelsea performances under Thomas Tuchel have been more functional than spectacular, but they are picking up result after result and a big season could be in the offing.

The Premier League title race was run by the time Tuchel took over as manager, but he has taken Chelsea to the FA Cup Final and they are favourites to reach the Champions League Final too. The Second Leg of the Champions League Semi Final is to be played during the week and it could be a big distraction, but Chelsea can't fully focus on that at the detriment of their League form.

Unlike Manchester City, Chelsea do not have a considerable advantage when it comes to finishing in the top four of the Premier League. They have recently dropped some silly points at Stamford Bridge which has kept West Ham United and Liverpool interested in breaking into the top four, but Tuchel will not want to offer more encouragement this weekend.

Fulham have proven to be a difficult team to break down away from home, but they have to take more chances now. Scott Parker's team need to win four of their last five Premier League games to have any chance of avoiding relegation and taking risks could leave them exposed to the pace and power Chelsea have in the final third.

It won't be easy and especially if Chelsea were to make some changes to the starting eleven, but this is a team that has been well organised under Thomas Tuchel. They have also been capable of creating chances and even with the changes I expect they will have too much for their West London rivals as they maintain their spot in the top four.


Everton v Aston Villa Pick: There is plenty of strong history behind Aston Villa and Everton and both clubs are chasing a return to being amongst the elite of English Football.

Everton feel much further along than Aston Villa and they have shown a touch more consistency than their visitors, although the most telling factor about these clubs is that they are consistently inconsistent.

The Toffees have been in poor form at home for months, but the 0-1 win at Arsenal should give Everton a real spark. At the same time Aston Villa have just lost their momentum and only a late goal prevented them from being beaten by West Brom last weekend as the clean sheets have dried up.

Losing Jack Grealish has been a big blow for Aston Villa and a healthier looking Everton may just edge to the points here.

It should be competitive and the first goal is going to be huge, but Everton have their best players available for the most part and that should help them. Nothing will come easy, but Everton can earn a vital three points to keep their European ambitions on track through another weekend.


Newcastle United v Arsenal Pick: Both of these teams are close to being involved in dead rubbers in the Premier League with Newcastle United pulling clear of the relegation zone and Arsenal in mid-table and unlikely to be involved in Europe next season without winning the Europa League.

That latter competition is the focus for all associated with Arsenal and the Semi Final Second Leg is going to be played next Thursday with the tie against Villarreal finely balanced. Mikel Arteta can't afford to risk key players in what is ultimately a meaningless Premier League game to the club and it is no surprise that the Arsenal price has been drifting to odds against.

Their own motivation can be questioned, but add the factor of the recent upturn in form produced by Newcastle United and an upset can't be ruled out. Steve Bruce has had a difficult season as manager of the club, but key injuries have been clearing up in attacking areas and that has helped Newcastle United earn 8 points from a possible 12 to pull clear of Fulham in the relegation zone.

There are now 9 points between them and Newcastle United are unbeaten in 5 at St James' Park. One concern is the amount of goals they have been conceding, but Newcastle United have been scoring plenty of goals over the last month and they can earn a positive result against an Arsenal team that may not be fully focused on Sunday afternoon.

Arsenal do have a very good recent record at St James' Park which has to be respected, but Newcastle United can pick something up here. They have created enough chances over the last month to believe they will have the goals to at least produce another point and the spot looks a bad one for Arsenal who have a Europa League Semi Final to overturn during the week.


Manchester United v Liverpool Pick: This game may mean more to Liverpool on the pitch than it does for Manchester United, but the historical rivalry between the clubs means there are plenty of bragging rights up for grabs.

Liverpool may have won the Premier League title last season, but Manchester United could push them out of the Champions League reckoning this time around if they can win this game.

The backdrop will be the protests organised by Manchester United fans which will take place on the forecourt of Old Trafford and it may just have the players feeling the atmosphere of the day that may produce a better game in front of the empty stands than some of these Big Six fixtures have produced so far this season.

Manchester United earned a tough 3-2 win over Liverpool in the FA Cup back in January and I do think the 6-2 win over Roma on Thursday means a strong team can be selected for this one. They will have the attacking pace to really hurt a makeshift Liverpool defence that has continued to look vulnerable in each passing week and Manchester United have scored at least twice in 4 straight at Old Trafford.

However, Liverpool have been creating chances and only poor finishing has been letting them down. They will approach this fixture with an attacking intent in this one as Liverpool chase the win they desperately need, but that may mean this is an open fixture in which chances are created at both ends of the field.

3 of the last 4 between Manchester United and Liverpool at Old Trafford have finished up with less than three goals shared out. However, I think the situation for both teams likely leads to a more open game and one that is closer to the 3-2 FA Cup win for United than the tight affairs we have seen in recent seasons.

This looks like a game that could become very open if there is an early goal and three or more goals may be provided on the day.

Unbelievably Manchester United are the home underdog, but that has more to do with the situation for Liverpool who 'need' the points more than United do.

I think that will tempt enough in to back the home team who have won 5 in a row at Old Trafford, but any win will likely come in a high-scoring game.


Tottenham Hotspur v Sheffield United Pick: Ryan Mason would have heard the criticisms of his team over the last week after a meek surrender to Manchester City in the League Cup Final, but he can still help Tottenham Hotspur produce a strong end to the campaign.

Finishing outside of European competition would be a huge blow for Tottenham Hotspur and would put the pressure on the club to keep some of their big name players. Harry Kane is already wondering whether it is time to search for a new club where he may win trophies and play consistent Champions League Football, while others in the squad need to be shifted too.

It is a difficult time for any new manager taking over at Tottenham Hotspur, but they can get back on track in the Premier League with a win over Sheffield United.

This looks the perfect opponent for Spurs to face considering how badly Sheffield United have travelled for much of the season. The Blades have lost 7 away games in a row in all competitions and they do offer up some big chances to teams they face.

Last weekend it was only poor finishing from Brighton which allowed Sheffield United to get away with a win, but they have to expect better from Tottenham Hotspur. And for all the negatives around Spurs, they have won 6 of their last 7 games here in all competitions and have the players who can put Sheffield United to the sword.

Defensively Tottenham Hotspur are hard to trust, but they should have enough to keep Sheffield United at arm's length and that should be enough for a relatively comfortable home win on the night.


West Brom v Wolves Pick: This may not be one for the neutrals, but the local bragging rights between clubs separated by eleven miles should provide plenty of motivation for West Brom and Wolves.

Over the last month there have been some positive moments from both teams, but it looks to have come too late for West Brom who are almost certainly going to be relegated.

Sam Allardyce will be looking for his team to fight as far as they can though and a win for West Brom will keep them alive for another week as they look for a third win in 5 Premier League games since the March international break. They have been scoring goals for fun in those games, but West Brom continue to look vulnerable at the back.

The attacking side of their game will be encouraging against this Wolves team who just conceded four times to Burnley at Molineux. They have shown a big more solidness in recent weeks, but Wolves don't really control the chances and West Brom may be able to hurt them.

However I would also think West Brom's defence will be tested by Wolves who have scored in 4 of their last 5 away games. They don't create nearly as much as The Baggies have been, but Wolves should be able to have some success here and another high-scoring game could develop.

The last 4 between these clubs at The Hawthorns have finished with fewer than three goals shared out, but there were five goals when these teams met at Molineux. An early goal should get things going and West Brom have to take risks as they look to claw back towards 17th place in the Premier League table and that may leave spaces for the visitors in what could be a decent game all things considered.


Burnley v West Ham United Pick: The recent upturn in form produced by Burnley was finally rewarded with a victory over Wolves last week and the team continue to create chances in their fixtures. It has been important because they have not looked as secure defensively and they are certainly going to be tested by a West Ham United team that are looking to get closer to the top four in the Premier League.

Both teams will be looking to play on the front foot on Monday and that should mean this is a decent watch for those tuning on.

The two teams have been scoring goals frequently, but neither has looked secure at the back and that should mean there are opportunities in the final third for both. An early goal would spark the entire contest, even in the sanitised setting of playing behind closed doors, and there are attacking players on form that can play their part in this fixture.

Burnley would likely accept a point a little more readily than West Ham United, but the latter's need may see the game remain fairly open throughout the ninety minutes.

Goals have been hard to come by at Turf Moor, but the last 5 Premier League games that Burnley have been involved in have seen at least three goals shared out. Before the defeat to Chelsea, West Ham United had been involved in 4 high-scoring League games in a row and I think there will be at least three goals produced in this one too.

MY PICKS: Leicester City - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Manchester City - 1.25 Asian Handicap
Leeds United + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Chelsea - 1 Asian Handicap
Everton - 0.25 Asian Handicap
Newcastle United + 0.5 Asian Handicap
Manchester United-Liverpool Over 2.5 Goals
Tottenham Hotspur - 1.5 Asian Handicap
West Brom-Wolves Over 2.5 Goals
Burnley-West Ham United Over 2.5 Goals


Fantasy Football GameWeek 34
I had plans last Friday which meant I was not able to put up my Wild Card team that was created for the final weeks of the season.

The three Leicester City players and Mohamed Salah were the only good though and the 57 points overall was far below what I would have wanted.

I also made sure I left enough money in the bank to make sure I can upgrade Diogo Jota to Heung-Min Son this week and I will then be hoping to avoid having to make any transfers in GW35, which has become the confirmed double we anticipated.

It also means Man United, Leicester City, Chelsea and Arsenal are going to be blanking in GW36, but I have been prepared for that to be the outcome and that meant I have only picked five players from across those two teams.

However, Everton, Aston Villa, Southampton and Crystal Palace are all going to have doubles in GW35 and will also be playing in GW36 so it will be no surprise that I have five players from across those teams involved in my Wild Card too.


The only reason I want to bring in Son for Jota is the fixtures being played this week and I do wonder if that is overthinking things- Spurs have a tougher game at Leeds United than Liverpool have hosting Southampton in GW35, but I also think Jota's position is a little more unsure than Son's.

I think there is every chance I will bring Diogo Jota back in GW36 when some of the midfielders I have will be blanking, but that is a thought for another day.

And one more thing, I really hate the Friday deadline!

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