NBA Picks 2018- Play Offs First Round Series (April 24-29)

I have split the NBA Play Offs First Round Picks into two threads with the first covering the first four games of each of the Series being played and the remaining games held in this one.

I won't lie, I have been disappointed with my Picks so far but I have also not been afforded a lot of luck with my selections. That was highlighted on Sunday with a couple of teams blowing big leads and missed Free Throws costing me.

It is a long post-season though and plenty of time to get this season back on track beginning with the three picks made from Tuesday's Game 5 action.


Tuesday 24th April
Milwaukee Bucks @ Boston Celtics Pick: All four games in this First Round Play Off Series have been won by the home team, but both the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks will have felt they could have earned a road in that time too. The Milwaukee Bucks avoided a devastating loss in Game 4 despite blowing a huge lead they held in the middle of the Third Quarter, but the way they rallied together in the Fourth Quarter will have given them a boost in confidence.

The Celtics will feel they could have been in a position to complete a Series win on Tuesday if they had just had a little more fortune go their way in Game 4. However they would have been encouraged by another strong Offensive output from a young roster missing their big time playmakers.

Game 5 looks like one that is going to be tightly contested like three of the four games in the Series have been.

You can understand why that has been the case with the two teams matching up well with each other and the strengths and weaknesses meaning both the Bucks and Celtics have been able to make strong runs. The Bucks continue to be the more effective team from the field, but they have generally lost the turnover battle and also have struggled on the glass with Boston earning plenty of second chance points with their power on the Offensive rebounding.

It has led to four games which have all surpassed the total points line and I think there is every chance we could see the same in Game 5.

The spread looks very difficult to call with a reasonable case being made for both Boston and Milwaukee to cover. That means the better option looks to be to take Game 5 to become the latest to cover the total points line as the last four have done.

Only the first game went to Overtime, but there have been chances for at least one more to go that way. It could be the case in Game 5, but regardless I would think the teams are doing enough Offensively to cover the total points in this one.

The 'over' has been the dominant trend in recent Boston and Milwaukee games and this Series has continued that. With that in mind I will back the 'over' and look for the two teams to continue pushing the pace like they have throughout this First Round Series.


Miami Heat @ Philadelphia 76ers Pick: After dropping Game 2, the Philadelphia 76ers have shown the resiliency and confidence this young team have by winning back to back road games at the Miami Heat to move into a 3-1 lead in the First Round Series. Most of the fans attending Game 5 will be expecting their team to make it through to the Conference Semi Finals and the 76ers are not downplaying any expectations.

Joel Embiid returned in Game 3 and he has helped the 76ers, but the continued hot shooting from three point range has made it tough for the Miami Heat to stay with them. The Heat made a big effort in Game 4 to try and level the Series but fell agonisingly short on the day and picking themselves up won't be easy despite the Play Off experience this roster have.

The layers are not expecting much from the Miami Heat if you take the point spread into consideration. The Heat have been set as a double digit underdog in Game 5 which is 3 points higher than they were when visiting here in Game 1 and Game 2 and I think the Miami players have to use that as motivation for a big performance in Game 5.

However the Philadelphia 76ers are feeling good about their chances not only in this Series but they have also been speaking about going all the way to win the NBA Championship. Embiid himself refuses to accept that it is all about the future for the 76ers and believes trusting 'The Process' has given the team enough to win the wide open Eastern Conference and from there anything is possible.

For now the concentration has to be to get through to the Conference Semi Finals and then get a few days of rest while waiting for the Boston Celtics and Milwaukee Bucks to complete their own First Round Series.

With the way Philadelphia have continued to shoot from the three point range they are very dangerous and it is hard to back Miami with the points just because the home team are capable of taking it away from them. The pace in all of the games in the Series have seen both teams score at least 102 points in each of them and I can't imagine either team is going to take their foot off the gas in this Game 5.

Miami know they have to try and stay with the 76ers as long as possible and so they will be looking for their own three pointers to land, and we know the home team are going to take plenty of shots from beyond the arc. A chippy Series could also see teams get into foul trouble early in Quarters which could extend this Game 5 and I think the two teams combine to cover the total points line.

There have been at least 216 points scored in the two games in Philadelphia in this Series and I will look for Game 5 to get to that mark too.


San Antonio Spurs @ Golden State Warriors Pick: The San Antonio Spurs avoided a sweep at the hands of the Golden State Warriors for the second season in a row, but extending this First Round Series for long enough to get it back to Texas is a big ask for the team.

All credit has to be given to the Spurs for the effort put into Game 4 as they took advantage of a sloppy night in the office for the Golden State Warriors. Steve Kerr was not happy that his team did not match the intensity of their hosts whose desperation to avoid the sweep was clear from the opening tip off.

Kerr won't be overly concerned and may even feel the loss will just get his Warriors to refocus again. Stephen Curry is on the road to recovery, but the Spurs would love to be able to give Curry a few more days to get ready for the Conference Semi Final Series and not have to rush him back if the Spurs have extended the Series.

Game 4 was a poor shooting day for the Warriors but they will be expected to bounce back at home where they have remained dominant. Both wins against the Spurs in this First Round Series have come very easily for the Golden State Warriors and it will take something special for the Spurs to keep themselves competitive in this one.

San Antonio have admitted their struggles from the field and they can't expect Golden State to be as poor as they were in Game 4. There will be moments where the Spurs will have their successes, but I think the Warriors are going to double down on their Defensive play as they look to get past this team and that should also mean more shots in transition up the other end of the court.

All credit has to be given to the Spurs to dig deep and force Game 5, but I think the Golden State Warriors win comfortably at home against them again.


Wednesday 25th April
Honestly I can't put a finger on the kind of weird crap that has gone on at the end of games to cost me a really poor run during the NBA Play Offs. Missed Free Throws, late coldness from the Field or blowing big leads, it has been a frustrating time to say the least.

It can't go on with some many bad breaks, but that doesn't make me feel much better.

Indiana Pacers @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: This First Round Series has been far more competitive than many thought it would be although the Indiana Pacers were very keen to let everyone know they are not going to lie down for the Cleveland Cavaliers. The strong regular season record against the Cavaliers helped their mental approach to this First Round Series, although Indiana have to show they can cope with dropping home court advantage which had been stolen away in Game 1.

Poor starts have become a feature of the Indiana performances in the last three games in the Play Offs and that has to be a worry. There is only so many times a team can dig deep and fight back before the physical and emotional effort takes a toll, but the Pacers are speaking with plenty of confidence.

They have not been happy with the execution in the Fourth Quarter of their loss to the Cleveland Cavaliers in Game 4 though and you have to expect the Pacers will look to attack the rim and force their way onto the foul line. They will need more from Victor Oladipo who has struggled with his shot since Game 1 especially when it comes to efficiency on the court.

Cleveland were able to use Oladipo's shooting issues to get away from the Pacers in the Fourth Quarter of Game 4, and they were encouraged by the performances of some of the younger players on the roster. Getting a boost off the bench is critical for the Cavaliers if they are going to win this Series which has become a best of three.

George Hill could return to give the Cavaliers another boost ahead of Game 5 at home and LeBron James has clearly decided to take this team on his back with the levels he has been producing since Game 1. That alone makes Cleveland very dangerous, but they have struggled to really put Indiana away even when they have gotten into big leads and the Pacers will be holding onto that.

Another close game looks to be the outcome of this one and so taking the points with the road underdog is the sensible play. Indiana have managed to play Cleveland close throughout this Series as well as in the regular season and the only concern is that their players wilt in the road atmosphere.

That hasn't happened in previous visits and they match up well enough with Cleveland to take the points.


Washington Wizards @ Toronto Raptors Pick: Just when you think the Toronto Raptors are ready to show why they finished with the Number 1 Seed in the Eastern Conference and exorcise some of their Play Off ghosts, the tension ramps up for a Game 5 back in Canada. The Raptors won the first two games at home to move into a 2-0 lead over the Washington Wizards, but the Wizards have responded by holding serve in their two home games to level this First Round Series.

Those two home wins will have given the Washington Wizards a real belief that they go on and stun the Toronto Raptors in the post-season again. The Wizards will know they have benefited from some poor Offensive schemes run by the Raptors in Game 4 where they blew a lead in the Fourth Quarter against a Wizards team who had struggled initially.

One of the key factors was the decision by Toronto to move away from the three point shot which had been key for them throughout the season. You have to expect they are going to go back to basics at home with the ball movement back to the usual standards and you would have to anticipate a high amount of three pointers in this one.

Whether they fall or not is important for the Raptors who can't get away from what has been key for them throughout the regular season. They are looking to avoid a three game losing run for the first time this season and Toronto have to be confident with the Washington Wizards not as strong on the road as they tend to be at home.

John Wall was huge for Washington in Game 4 and it is key for Toronto to make life a little more difficult for the Point Guard if they are going to have success. Wall took over the game as soon as Bradley Beal fouled out, but Washington were aided significantly by the Raptors.

I don't think that happens again and I expect a far better all around performance from Toronto who just got away from what had built their lead in the Series and in Game 4. They have played well off back to back losses all season and teams who have lost a Play Off Game as a favourite and then play the next game at home have a very strong record of covering against the spread.

It could be another fun scoring game despite the poor Field Goal percentage of Game 4, but I am looking for a bounce back from the Raptors as they win and cover.


Utah Jazz @ Oklahoma City Thunder Pick: The NBA Play Offs are supposed to be a tough environment in which future stars have to go through a difficult experience that helps them grow. Two players who are in their rookie seasons are tearing up those expectations though and Donovan Mitchell may be able to lead the Utah Jazz into the Conference Semi Finals in the same manner Ben Simmons has with the Philadelphia 76ers.

I like both players and I think they are going to be big names in this League, but the edge for me goes to Mitchell who doesn't have the same supporting cast as Simmons enjoys in Philadelphia.

Mitchell has outplayed the likes of Russell Westbrook, Carmelo Anthony and Paul George in this First Round Series and that has been a big reason the Utah Jazz are leading 3-1 with a chance to close the show on Wednesday. The Jazz will be expecting a reaction from the Thunder who were blown out in Game 4 especially back in front of their home fans, but Utah are also confident with the way they have been playing.

Surprisingly they have found plenty of creases in the Oklahoma City Defensive schemes and the Ricky Rubio numbers have also been a big help for the Jazz in being able to break down the Thunder.

Some way Oklahoma City have to find a better consistency and they were not impressed with the lack of three pointers made in Game 4 during the blow out. This is a team with some of the finest shot makers in the NBA, but the 'Big Three' have struggled in the Fourth Quarter which is a big reason they are in the hole they are in.

Westbrook is key having struggled with his shot from the Field as he is never going to take a backwards step. The Thunder need more efficiency from their leader if they are going to find a way back into this Series especially if Utah continue shooting as well as they have been.

That shooting suggests this is another game in this First Round Series which can surpass the total points line with three of the four managing to do that. Both teams play fast and they will look to make hay from the three point mark and I think the Offenses have been strong enough to think they can break down the Defensive schemes put in front of them again.


Minnesota Timberwolves @ Houston Rockets Pick: The Houston Rockets look to have rallied at just the right time to make sure they are not dragged into a deep Series with the Minnesota Timberwolves. Now the Rockets can close out this First Round Play Off Series with another win on Wednesday as they host Game 5 against the Timberwolves.

The shots began falling in the Third Quarter as the Rockets fired away in a blow out win on the road, and much depends on whether the players can find their groove quickly in this one too.

Houston go as far as their three point shooting will carry them as it is very difficult for the Minnesota team to find the same Offensive output from that distance. If Houston are on, Minnesota simply don't have enough to stay with them.

It's hard to know if that will happen but Houston have momentum behind them.

Add in the mental blow Minnesota took when dropping Game 4 and this feels like a Game 5 which is leaning towards a home blow out.

Backing teams to cover double digits in the Play Offs is not an easy choice, but Houston do have the power to pull away and beat Minnesota fairly comfortably. James Harden found his groove in Game 4 and if he can pick up from where he left off, Houston can win a second home game in this Series by a wide margin.


Thursday 26th April
On a day when the NBA Picks went 3-1 to snap what has been a tremendously poor run, you would think I would be pretty satisfied with the way things went.

However my irritation wasn't completely eradicated as more bad breaks affected the Picks which has been a feature of the First Round of the Play Offs.

The Thunder and Jazz had reached 206 points combined with two minutes left and the Thunder up by 8 points. I have never, NEVER, seen a situation where there wouldn't be at least one or two fouls given up by the team chasing to get back into the game, even when they haven't made a couple of shots of their own.

Instead the Jazz allowed the time to run down with neither team scoring a basket in that time which meant Game 5 somehow finished 'under' the total points. That has to be the most ridiculous loss I have suffered in the last couple of weeks without a doubt.


Boston Celtics @ Milwaukee Bucks Pick: I really don't know how I feel about this First Round Series especially after seeing the return of Marcus Smart stunt the Milwaukee Bucks ability from the field. If the Boston Celtics can restrict the home team to a sub 40% shooting day again they have every chance of closing this Series out, but you have to think the Bucks are going to make some adjustments to get themselves going.

Smart's energy was huge in Game 5 but despite the limiting of the Bucks, Boston still only narrowly won.

Game 6 feels like it has all the makings of another close one although home court has been the key to this Series so far and I am leaning towards Milwaukee finding a way to win.

However I can see this one going right down to the wire and so the spread is right on the money. The Celtics may have the momentum, but I am expecting Milwaukee to make the necessary adjustments to get their scoring back on track and I am finding it very difficult to pick a side.

My lean is that Boston will stay within the number, but I am not convinced so I will make this a zero unit selection.


Friday 27th April
Toronto Raptors @ Washington Wizards Pick: This First Round NBA Play Off Series has been far closer than most would have anticipated, but the pressure is on the Number 8 Seed Washington Wizards to try and extend it to a Game 7 when they host the Number 1 Seed Toronto Raptors. All five previous games have been won by the home team, but they have all been relatively close with very little determining the outcome.

Sometimes it simply comes down to whether the shots fall at the right time or not and that was the case in Game 5 which was incredibly close until the final five minutes. The Wizards do feel they let one slip as they led in the final Quarter, but their shots went ice cold down the stretch and the Toronto Raptors were able to make the plays to pull away.

Toronto may feel they should have been in with a chance to close the Series in Game 5 as they had a similar ending in Game 4 as the Washington Wizards suffered in Game 5.

It should mean both teams enter Game 6 with a confident frame of mind as they know they have the tools to get the better of the other. The Wizards have a proud recent record at home in the Play Offs and showed their powers of recovery in Game 4, while their dominance of the boards in Game 5 was a major reason they were in a position to steal one on the road.

On the other hand Toronto got back to the basics which helped them finish with the best record in the Eastern Conference and that was moving the ball effectively and making sure they tried plenty of three pointers. The Raptors hit 11/25 from the three point range, but it was the ability to get into those positions which will encourage this team with that shot a key weapon for Toronto.

Picking a winner is difficult and that goes for both straight up and against the spread. I can make a serious case for both teams to do that and so instead I am going to focus on the total points market here.

The last couple of games have seen one of the teams just struggle under the pressure of Play Off Basketball especially in the Fourth Quarter. That has prevented either Game 4 or Game 5 surpassing the total points line and I think Game 6 could follow a similar pattern.

There is likely to be two Quarters where both Washington and Toronto fire up, but I think they have been challenging the shooters to enough of an extent that there will be one Quarter far below the expected points total. That should be enough to see these teams combine for fewer than the line set barring Overtime coming into play and that has been the recent trend.

The pressure on each team might also make the shooters a little tighter at this stage of a Series and I will look for the 'under' to come through.


Cleveland Cavaliers @ Indiana Pacers Pick: The final seconds of Game 5 will stick in the throat of the Indiana Pacers who won't be feeling any better when hearing from the NBA that their officials got a call wrong against them. My immediate reaction to LeBron James' block on Victor Oladipo with 4 seconds left was that it was a goaltending violation, but the officials missed the call and couldn't review it.

The fact LeBron James came out and hit a three pointer to beat the buzzer will only have hurt the Pacers all the more as they fought back to almost steal a 3-2 lead in the Series. Instead Indiana return home knowing it is win or go home as far as the Play Offs go for them this season.

The Pacers have played well throughout the Series, but they have just faltered at critical times. Poor starts have not helped and while getting that sorted out in Game 5, they couldn't maintain the aggressiveness as Cleveland took control in the Third Quarter with a huge run.

Oladipo was unfortunate not to get the call that would have given the Indiana Pacers the lead in Game 5, but he has really struggled in the last three games and it is no surprise his team have lost twice. He has been huge for the Pacers all season, but LeBron James has made it his job to limit Oladipo's impact and that has seen the latter make some questionable decisions.

On the other side of the court James continues to show dominance and he was given just about enough support in Game 5 to help the Cavaliers get over the line. He needs more if Cleveland are going to go deep into the post-season, but James is happy with the way the Cavaliers are developing in what has been an incredibly tough Series for them.

Much of how Game 6 is going to go will depend on how down the Pacers feel after coming so close in the last couple of games and losing twice. Back to back losses in the Play Offs are really difficult to recover from both mentally and physically and I think the Cavaliers have every chance of closing this Series on Friday.

Like every game so far in this First Round Series I expect it will be close with both teams capable of making a strong run. However I think the Cavaliers have the momentum now and the LeBron James three pointer in Game 5 may have been the dagger which could be very tough for Indiana to recover from.

The three point shooting in general looked a little better from Cleveland and Indiana's Offensive schemes have gotten a bit too bogged down at times. With LeBron James playing the way he is, I think the Cavaliers can win as the underdog in Game 6.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ Utah Jazz Pick: Blowing a 25 point lead in a close game of the Play Offs would affect the most veteran of teams in the NBA, but it is going to be really difficult for the young Utah Jazz team to recover in a couple of days. The Jazz looked like they had the Oklahoma City Thunder where they wanted them having shut down a raucous home crowd and seen the home team booed at half time, but a collapse for the ages has reignited this Play Off Series.

The sharp money continues to come in on the Utah Jazz who are a big favourite to win Game 6 and the spread indicates that. They have looked the better team for three and a half games of the five games played in this Series and that is something they need to hold onto.

Oklahoma City were obviously impressed with their comeback in Game 5 but have admitted they can't play as poorly again as they did in the first half of that game. The 'Big Three' finally rallied together for a huge Play Off performance and the challenge for the Thunder is getting Russell Westbrook, Paul George and Carmelo Anthony going again.

Defensively they stepped up in the second half of Game 5, but the key for the Thunder remains the Offensive side of the court because the Jazz have shown they move the ball well enough to find their open shots.

You do have to think they are going to be given the adrenaline boost they will need from the home crowd and that does make Utah dangerous, but I am anticipating another close battle between these teams.

I am also going back to the same market that should have hit in Game 5- I have never seen a team trailing by only 8 points with two minutes to play not make one single foul like the Utah Jazz did and I am attributing that to mentally losing complete focus after blowing their lead.

That game reached 206 points with two minutes left and all it would have needed was a couple of trips to the Free Throw line, like would happen in 999/1000 occasions, and Game 5 would have surpassed the number. The two teams have shown they can get hot from the three point line and aggressive moves to the rim have also extended games.

Both teams have shown they can be broken down Defensively by the other and I am not anticipating either allowing themselves to coast to the loss without trying to force the other to hit Free Throws as happened in Game 5. The total points line has come down a point from Game 5 to Game 6 and I will look for the teams to surpass that total this time.

MY PICKS: 24/04 Boston Celtics-Milwaukee Bucks Over 203 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
24/04 Philadelphia 76ers-Miami Heat Over 215 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
24/04 Golden State Warriors - 11 Points @ 1.91 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
25/04 Indiana Pacers + 6 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
25/04 Toronto Raptors - 7 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/04 Utah Jazz-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 207 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
25/04 Houston Rockets - 12 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
26/04 Boston Celtics + 4.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (0 Units)
27/04 Washington Wizards-Toronto Raptors Under 214.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
27/04 Cleveland Cavaliers @ 2.05 Boyle Sports (1 Unit)
27/04 Utah Jazz-Oklahoma City Thunder Over 206 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

First Round Update: 15-23-1, - 9.35 Units (39 Units Staked, - 23.97% Yield)