Boxing Picks 2026- Raymond Muratalla vs Andy Cruz (Saturday 24th January)

This was supposed to be the weekend when Moses Itauma returned to the ring and continued his development and progress towards a Heavyweight World Title fight.

Unfortunately an injury has seen the entire card postponed and pushed back to the end of March, but that may be the start of a busy run for some of the top Heavyweights around the world.

Rumours are strengthening that Deontay Wilder will face Dereck Chisora in London in early April, while both Daniel Dubois and Tyson Fury are both due back in the same month.

The last time Dubois and Fury were out in the ring were in contests against Undisputed Heavyweight King Oleksandr Usyk- at one stage it sounded like Usyk would next defend his status against the aforementioned Deontay Wilder, but that might be revisited later in the year and the Ukrainian may instead face another former Unified Heavyweight Champion in one Andy Ruiz Jr.

That does leave Fabio Wardley and Agit Kabayel looking in from the outside, although it may then make sense for the two to meet instead in a battle of top quality Heavyweights vying to be next in line to take on Oleksandr Usyk.

We do hope to have some news sooner than later with some of the top Promoters looking to announce some of the cards that are coming up in the first half of the year.

Some of those have been released by Matchroom and Queensberry who have some good looking shows for the fans in February and March, while a big fight night has been announced in America headlined by Ryan Garcia three weeks after Teofimo Lopez and Shakur Stevenson have squared off at Madison Square Garden.

A big Heavyweight name is not in action this weekend, but we have a World Title fight in the Lightweight Division taking place in Las Vegas, while Zuffa Boxing has its first show on Friday evening.

Credit has to be given to Dana White in announcing at least one more date and another to be rumoured for February, while the signing of Jai Opetaia is of high quality (even if it means having to work with other Promoters, which is not part of the business model).

There are still questions whether this UFC-style model can work in Boxing... Dana White continues to insist he wants to end the control of the Boxing organisations and he is well backed with Turki Alalshikh on board and the start of the Promotional cards will generate plenty of interest.

Raymond Muratalla vs Andy Cruz

Just seven fights into his professional career, Andy Cruz has fast-tracked his way into a World Title fight and he is the favourite this weekend.

At 30 years old, Andy Cruz did not want to wait around after putting together a deep amateur career and he has not eased his way into the pro ranks.

The Lightweight Division has lost some big names in recent years and there is every chance Andy Cruz could soon follow the likes of Shakur Stevenson and Keyshawn Davis in moving into the Light-Welterweight ranks to chase bigger names and challenges.

However, it would be a big mistake to overlook Champion Raymond Muratalla who is unbeaten in twenty-three fights and who has been elevated into full IBF World Champion.

This is another fighter who may choose to leave the Division sooner, rather than later, but Raymond Muratalla will want to show that he has learned plenty from his narrow win over Tevin Farmer and deserves to be recognised as a full World Champion. Criticism of becoming an 'email Champion' has hurt others, but Muratalla did want the big fights in the Division and ultimately it is not his fault that they were not arranged.

There has been plenty to like about the Champion- he has solid punching power, but is also capable of boxing really well and will need all of that if he is going to hold off Andy Cruz.

The blueprint has been given to Cruz by the performance put together by Tevin Farmer, who gave Raymond Muratalla a lot of problems.

Andy Cruz is faster and fresher than the veteran Farmer, and that is expected to be a difference in this Title Fight with the Cuban likely doing enough to secure the victory on the cards.

Working with the Ennis team in Philadelphia means Andy Cruz is more willing to sit down on his punches than you may expect, but the game plan here will be to frustrate the Champion with his skills and movement likely to be really important.

Raymond Muratalla is a very good fighter, but there is this feeling that he might be able to be out-boxed by someone of the talent of Andy Cruz and the likelihood is that the Challenger can become the Champion thanks to the Judges' cards.

It is a solid undercard designed to give some fighters exposure and others a spot to begin the rebuild.

Omari Jones and Israil Madrimov could both earn Stoppages on the undercard, but those prices are plenty short.

The likelihood is that Madrimov is not going to need too much time in the ring to get the better of Luis David Salazar- his opponent has been as low as the Light-Welterweight limit as recently as 2021 and Salazer was fighting at below the Light-Middleweight limit the last time he headed out to the ring.

He has fought at Middleweight before, but Israil Madrimov has been in with a much higher class of opponent and should make a really early statement in this one.

Khalil Coe is also expected to be victorious on the undercard against veteran Jesse Hart, but he missed weight and will lose his USA Light Heavyweight Title on the scales.

He may still put on a solid show to win this one late on, although it is difficult to dismiss the toughness of Hart to be able to get to the cards and at least give the favourite something to think about.

On Friday night, Zuffa Boxing 01 takes place and the first card is headlined by Callum Walsh who has long been aligned with Dana White.

This is one of the names that the new Promotion are looking to build around and the unbeaten fighter put on a good performance on the undercard of the Terence Crawford win over Canelo Alvarez to have more people take interest.

He is only 24 years old and the Irishman may have some real room for development.

Callum Walsh is moving up to Middleweight and will be looking to see if he can carry his power against Carlos Ocampo who has only been beaten in very good company.

The 30 year old Ocampo was blitzed by both Errol Spence Jr and Tim Tsyzu with neither fight lasting more than a single Round, but he did take Sebastian Fundora to the cards.

Carlos Ocampo took eighteen months away from the ring after being blown away by Tim Tszyu in 2023 and has started fighting above the Light-Middleweight limit and he has three wins in a row. Of course it should be stated that those have been at a lower level compared with those defeats and Carlos Ocampo may come up short again, even if Callum Walsh is perhaps not going to be as strong as those fighters that have wins over the Mexican.

However, the younger fighter hits hard and Carlos Ocampo should not make it too difficult for Callum Walsh to find him.

It will be a test for Walsh to see where he is in his career, but this is an opportunity to show people why the upper management at Zuffa Boxing are so keen to get behind him and he can break down Carlos Ocampo for a Stoppage win.

MY PICKS: Andy Cruz to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Israil Madrimov to Win Between 1-2 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Callum Walsh to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Boxing 2026: 1-2, + 0.74 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.80% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 7 Picks 2026 (Saturday 24th January)

If it wasn't for a couple of late selections just missing the cover at the end of Day 6, it could have been a truly special day for the Tennis Picks made.

Earlier in the day, Daniil Medvedev had come through in five sets and still managed to cover a big spread, so there was some fortune attached, but unfortunately Tommy Paul was not able to complete a big win that he was on course to achieving when Alejandro Davidovich Fokina withdrew after winning two games in two sets.

The Aryna Sabalenka pick looked unlikely to win very early on as she got herself into a trickier match than it should have been, but overall you can never complain when adding more positive numbers to the totals.

On Saturday there is a heatwave set to hit Melbourne, one that has seen the organisers make a decision to move the starting time to an hour earlier than normal so they can get players on and off the court and leave the middle of the day as empty as possible.

It could mean a late night developing as the Third Round comes to a conclusion, but the safety of the participants and the fans has to be high on the list of priorities and the decision made by the Australian Open to try and get matches through before the hottest part of the day is the right one.

Heat is a factor that can change the outlook of any match as we simply don't know how all players will react to what are usually tough conditions in Melbourne.

This has not been the case so far at the tournament, but also means the incoming heatwave is going to have a serious impact and fatiguing issues can take hold.

Hopefully the players picked can find a way to keep battling through those tough moments.

Day 7 is not nearly as loaded with selections as the previous day, but there remain some solid plays on the card and those can be read below.

There is still some consisderable work to get through if this 2026 season is going to have the strong platform that has been set, especially with the second week yet to get underway at the opening Grand Slam of the season.

Taylor Fritz - 6.5 games v Stan Wawrinka: A little over a decade ago, the top of the ATP Tour was dominated by the 'Big Four', which then included Andy Murray alongside the likes of Roger Federer, Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

That era is now known as the 'Big Three' with Federer, Nadal and Djokovic separating from the pack, but another player who had every right to be spoken alongside the very best on the Tour at that time is Stan Wawrinka.

He may not have reached the Semi Final at Wimbledon, but Wawrinka won Grand Slam titles at the other three Majors, including at the 2014 Australian Open. He reached the Semi Final on two other occasions in Melbourne, but the former World Number 3 is two months from celebrating his 41st birthday and Stan Wawrinka has announced he will retire at the end of the 2026 season.

With that in mind, Wawrinka was awarded a Wild Card into the main draw at the Australian Open on his retirement tour, but it is clear that the Swiss player is not ready to go quietly.

He came through in four sets in the First Round and then needed to go the full five sets and spend over four and a half hours on the court to win in the Second Round. Neither match was against an opponent Ranked higher than Number 92 and even a day of rest may not be enough for a 40 year old body to recover as it once did.

So not only does Stan Wawrinka have to overcome fatigue and physical ailments in the Third Round, but he is also taking on World Number 9 Taylor Fritz who has made comfortable progression through the first couple of Rounds here.

Taylor Fritz does not have the same storied history at Grand Slam level compared with his veteran opponent, but the American is expected to have a lot more to give and he should be able to wear down the much older opponent.

He has reached the Quarter Final in Melbourne before, but the overall record at the Australian Open is disappointing for Taylor Fritz considering his qualities on the hard courts. One of the main reasons has been a relatively poor return game, but this match up may not be where that aspect of his tennis is exposed, especially if Wawrinka is struggling with his fitness.

Taylor Fritz should be able to contain much of the threat from the other side of the court behind his serve and it should be noted that the return numbers are significantly better against lower Ranked opponents.

Over the last twelve months, the American has suffered a couple of disappointing defeats on the hard courts, but in the main he has tended to get the better of those he will be expected to beat.

You would think twice about this spread if it was a First Round match, but Stan Wawrinka has already invested so much into the tournament that you have to feel he is worn down and cannot keep up on the scoreboard.

He will not want his last memory of playing on the courts in Melbourne to be a retirement mid-match so you have to believe Stan Wawrinka will bite down and try and finish the contest, even if he is hurting and the last set could be where Taylor Fritz can pull away for the win and cover.

Over the last year, Stan Wawrinka has only played four matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface and he has lost each one, while the service numbers have been severely impacted in those defeats. Even a relatively limited return player like Taylor Fritz should be able to get himself into rallies to wear down the veteran and come through with a solid win.

Jakub Mensik - 1.5 sets v Ethan Quinn: Two young players meet in the Australian Open Third Round on Day 7 of the tournament, but there is no doubting that Jakub Mensik is significantly further along in his development than Ethan Quinn.

This is made simple by the difference in World Ranking- the 20 year old Mensik is the World Number 17 and has won a title in Auckland this season, while his opponent is 21 and the World Number 80 who has failed to Qualify in Brisbane before an opening Round defeat in Adelaide.

However, they are in the same position on Saturday in this Third Round match with the opportunity to reach the second week of a Grand Slam a big boost to the career, especially at this early stage for both.

Neither has yet to play in double digit main draws at Grand Slam level and so there is some pressure on both with the chance to reach the Fourth Round for the first time. In reality both are going to feel this is a winnable match, although the stronger claims are certainly on the side of the higher Ranked player.

After coming through in a fifth set decider in the First Round, Jakub Mensik looked very comfortable in the Second Round.

He will have noted the relative ease in which Ethan Quinn has progressed, including in an upset over Hubert Hurkacz in the Second Round, but Mensik will believe his serve gives him a big edge in this contest.

The serve is going to be important on both sides of the net, but Ethan Quinn has struggled to impose that shot on top 50 Ranked opponents on this surface over the last twelve months. He has been in good form in this tournament with some suggesting conditions are quick in Melbourne, but Quinn will need to bridge a gap to a player that has very strong serving numbers on the hard courts in 2025.

Jakub Mensik is young though and he was upset in the Second Round at the US Open by a player Ranked way outside the top 100.

On that day he failed to deal with the pressurised moments when the big points came around, but Mensik will take plenty of confidence from the fact he beat Ethan Quinn twice last year and once on the hard courts.

In those two meetings, Jakub Mensik won 65% of service points played compared with Ethan Quinn's 57% mark and that led to a significant advantage of games being held. The hard court meeting in Cincinnati saw Jakub Mensik avoid giving up a single Break Point and you just have to favour the player from Czechia to come through at clutch times in this contest.

There is so much more to come from Ethan Quinn, which makes him dangerous, but at this current stage of their respective developments, Jakub Mensik can come through in three or four sets.

Casper Ruud - 1.5 sets v Marin Cilic: All credit should be given to another veteran continuing to fight his way through the Tour after Marin Cilic made it through to the Third Round at the 2026 Australian Open.

He was a very solid winner in the Second Round when set as the underdog, but Marin Cilic may need to find another gear if he is going to beat a top 20 Ranked opponent and earn a spot in the second week of the tournament.

The serve remains a big weapon for Marin Cilic, although it is a weapon that becomes harder and harder to impose on the better quality of opponent he faces. While his overall numbers in 2025 on the hard courts saw the Croatian hold 85% of service games played, those numbers dip over the last twelve months to 81% when only factoring in matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents.

However, it is the struggles on the return in those six matches that have really caught the eye and makes this a challenging Third Round match for the 37 year old.

Casper Ruud has played in three Grand Slam Finals, including at the 2022 US Open, but his performances at the Australian Open and US Open tournaments since then have been disappointing. The World Number 13 has only reached the second week at either of the Grand Slam tournaments played on hard courts once since reaching the Final in New York City and that despite his overall numbers on the surface improving in the last couple of years.

Two straight sets wins in Melbourne will have given Ruud confidence and his serve is a big weapon on this surface.

He does have one eye on news from back home where his wife is expecting to give birth at any time and Casper Ruud has stated that he will withdraw from the tournament if that happens over the next few days. This has not been a distraction though and instead the Norwegian is using it as motivation, much like Andy Murray once did, which makes Casper Ruud dangerous.

Unlike the very top names on the Tour, Casper Ruud can be guilty of losing in an upset or two and that has happened on the hard courts over the last twelve months, albeit not all that often.

He was beaten by an opponent Ranked outside the top 100 at the US Open a few months ago, but Ruud has won nine of ten matches against players outside of the top 50 on this surface since then. That includes a comfortable win in the First Round and Casper Ruud is expected to get the better of Marin Cilic on Saturday.

In four previous matches on the Tour, Casper Ruud has beaten the veteran each time, including on the hard courts of Stockholm in October.

The scoreline looks competitive, but Casper Ruud dominated the serving numbers and that has been the case in all four meetings against Marin Cilic.

You can never dismiss the veteran from giving the World Number 13 something to think about as a former Finalist in Melbourne, but Casper Ruud should have enough to avoid dropping two or more sets as he progresses to the Fourth Round here for just the second time in his career.

Karen Khachanov - 5.5 games v Luciano Darderi: The Italian has moved up into the top 30 of the World Rankings and that is partly down to a couple of solid, if unspectacular runs at the last couple of Grand Slam tournaments.

In the main, Luciano Darderi has built his World Ranking on strong clay court results, but it has been a tougher task on the hard courts.

Last year he finished with a 6-15 record on this surface, but Luciano Darderi did reach the Third Round at the US Open and he has done the same at the Australian Open, which suggests he may be getting to grips on how to produce on the hard courts.

However, it remains hard to ignore the fact that Darderi has a 9-29 record on the hard courts prior to his two wins in Melbourne.

Fans of the Italian will state that he is 2-4 when facing top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and Luciano Darderi may feel he can play with more freedom when having 'nothing to lose'. Despite the record, the numbers have not been very favourable though and Darderi is going to be an underdog when facing top 20 Ranked Karen Khachanov, who is very happy when playing on this surface.

The 29 year old may have needed five sets to come through his opening match in Melbourne, but Karen Khachanov had been handed a tough draw. There was little concern in the Second Round win and that should mean Khachanov has plenty in the tank as he prepares to reach the second week in Melbourne for the third time in four years.

His serve is always going to be a potent weapon for Karen Khachanov and he will need to serve well if he is going to win this match.

Karen Khachanov has been on the Tour for some time, but he should be comfortable with his ability on the surface against someone who is still getting to complete grips with top quality tennis on the hard courts.

The Russian has produced decent numbers when not facing top 20 Ranked opponents, and winning 68% of service points in those matches on the hard courts and backing that up with breaks in 25% of return games played gives Karen Khachanov a significant edge.

It is perhaps a surprise that Karen Khachanov has been asked to cover a larger spread than the one he was faced in the Second Round, but the strength of that win is a contributory factor.

However, the underlying feeling is that Khachanov has the hard court know-how to find a way to cover even if he needs four sets to win the match.

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 games v Maddison Inglis: This is not the first time that Australian Maddison Inglis has made it through to the Third Round of her home Grand Slam, but in 2022 she was awarded a Wild Card into the tournament.

Four years later, Maddison Inglis entered the Qualifying Rounds for the Australian Open, as has been the case in each of the last three seasons.

The last couple of years have ended in the final Round of Qualifying, but Inglis battled through to the main draw at this event and has continued to dig in to earn another run to the Third Round. This is going to help improve the World Ranking, which currently sits at Number 168, and the Australian has already beaten four players Ranked higher than herself to reach the Third Round.

However, none of the wins have been against anyone Ranked higher than Number 48 and this time Maddison Inglis is taking on a two time former Champion of this event.

Naomi Osaka has not been at her best in the first couple of Rounds, but she has found a way to move through the draw and that is an improvement on some of the early results she had when returning to the Tour. There is certainly more belief within the World Number 17, although Osaka may have to have found a way to ignore the criticisms that have been aimed at her for some of the on-court behaviour in the win over Sorana Cirstea.

She has apologised for what some believed to be gamesmanship and the challenge for Naomi Osaka is remaining focused and not worrying too much about what others may think.

This challenge only increases considering this is likely to be a match played in an atmosphere where the home player is going to be loudly backed by the crowd.

If she can lock in, Naomi Osaka should have too much for an opponent who had a career 1-11 record against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts before beating Laura Siegemund in the Second Round.

In eight of those eleven defeats, Maddison Inglis would not have won enough games to get within the spread set for this Third Round match.

Naomi Osaka does need to improve if she is going to have a serious impact at the business end of this tournament, but her current level is expected to be too much for the Australian.

Over the last twelve months, Osaka has won six of seven hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 100 and four of those would have seen her cover the spread like this one.

The reality is that Naomi Osaka's level should be too much for a veteran in Maddison Inglis who will be well supported, but who has to find a number of gears to remain competitive.

MY PICKS: Taylor Fritz - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Jakub Mensik - 1.5 Sets @ 1.72 Coral (2 Units)

Casper Ruud - 1.5 Sets @ 1.75 Coral (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 5.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Naomi Osaka - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365

Elise Mertens - 4.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Linda Noskova - 3.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Ben Shelton - 1.5 Sets @ 1.50 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 23-10, + 17.36 Units (66 Units Staked, + 26.30% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 6 Picks 2026 (Friday 23rd January)

The opening two Rounds at the Australian Open could not have worked out much better for the Tennis Picks made, but this is not the time to take anything for granted.

Things could quickly look very different with the Day 6 schedule looking loaded with options, but the selection process has been working well.

As is always going to be the case in a sport with the finest of fine margins, a bit of luck has been needed to help produce the strong numbers opening up the 2026 season.

Hopefully that fortune is not going to desert the Picks with more than a week yet to be played in Melbourne as the Third Round gets underway on Friday.

In the main, the top names have moved through the draw, but Belinda Bencic was upset on Day 5 and there will be plenty of players heading towards the second week believing they could do the same against higher Ranked opponents.

Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 games v Corentin Moutet: The top two players on the ATP Tour look clear of the World Number 3 and beyond and so it is no surprise that Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz are asked to cover some very big lines early in the Grand Slam events.

It is tough to do that, especially at the lines set for those players, but this one has come in slightly as we move into the Third Round.

In the previous two Rounds, Carlos Alcaraz has dismissed the World Number 81 and 102, but this time the competition is expected to be more challenging when taking on Corentin Moutet, the current World Number 37. A strong run through the first quarter of the season would put the Frenchman in a position to be Seeded when the French Open comes around in May, and he will be trending back towards the top 30 of the World Rankings at the end of this tournament.

Of course, upsetting the World Number 1 and top Seed in the tournament would really open things up for Moutet and everyone in the top half of the draw,  but that feels like a tall task.

As much as you do want to give credit to Moutet for getting everything out of his career, this is a big talent gap to bridge and it is hard to imagine the lower Ranked player having the weapons needed to upset Carlos Alcaraz.

He plays with style and flair, as many would expect from a French player, but Corentin Moutet has a vulnerable serve and that will put a lot of pressure on him throughout this contest. It feels important to note that Moutet has played five top 20 Ranked opponents in Grand Slams on the hard courts, but he has lost every one of those matches and struggled to have a telling impact on the serve.

In 2025, Corentin Moutet won around 61% of service points played in hard court matches, but he will not have come up against someone of the quality of Carlos Alcaraz too many times.

When only considering matches against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months, Corentin Moutet's service percentage points won dips to 57% and this should be a relatively comfortable match up for the top Seed.

We have yet to really see Carlos Alcaraz anywhere near his best and all eyes have been on the Spaniard to see how he has reacted to an unexpected decision to part ways with Coach Juan Carlos Ferrero. The reality is that the Spaniard has not really been forced to work too hard and he has won by eight game margins in both of the opening matches played in Melbourne without having to break much of a sweat.

This has been the weakest of the Grand Slams for Carlos Alcaraz so far in his career, which may also be a factor with early nerves, but the two wins should begin to build momentum.

As long as he continues to serve as well as he has, Carlos Alcaraz should be able to keep a lid on the threat from the other side of the court.

In his career, Carlos Alcaraz is 32-2 in Grand Slam matches on the hard courts against players Ranked outside of the top 20 and his numbers have been really impressive. This feels like an opportunity to produce his best effort in Melbourne in 2026 and Carlos Alcaraz may have the return game to cover this big line.

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 games v Frances Tiafoe: The key to having continued success at Grand Slam level events is getting through the early Rounds without wasting energy, especially on the men's side of the tournament in the best of five set format.

Both of these players have been able to do that ahead of what is expected to be a prime time Third Round match, although Frances Tiafoe made slightly more awkward work of his Second Round match than was needed. Coming through in four sets is still important and he only spent a little more than three hours on the court, even if Tiafoe was looking a little fatigued at times.

That is far from ideal if there is any lingering fitness issues ahead of a match against Alex De Minaur, who also needed four sets to come through the Second Round match, but who was cruising at the end.

The home fans are going to be right behind their man and Alex De Minaur is very sure of his fitness and ability to stay out on the court for as long as needed. His style also works well against Frances Tiafoe with De Minaur capable of getting his opponent to have to dig in and win rallies multiple times in order to earn a single point.

It can be frustrating, while Alex De Minaur is continuing his development in order to challenge the very best players on the Tour.

Ultimately it has meant coming up short at the Quarter Final Round when it comes to the Grand Slams, but Alex De Minaur has been consistent enough to reach the last eight in five of the last seven Grand Slam events played. Twelve months ago he made the Quarter Final at the Australian Open for the first time and De Minaur is very comfortable on this surface.

The serve has improved and Alex De Minaur has made full use of that shot when not facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months. This now backs up his strong return game and De Minaur could give Frances Tiafoe plenty of problems, much as he has in the past meetings on the Tour.

The American will have to serve well and then hope he can build up some scoreboard pressure- Frances Tiafoe has struggled for consistency behind that shot, which has contributed to slip in the World Ranking, while that has also meant more pressure on his own serve.

Over the last year, Frances Tiafoe is also 1-7 when facing top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts and he has won less than 60% of his service points played in those matches. The return has remained steady compared with his overall numbers, even against the top players, but it is very hard to continue to have to break serve to merely stick with those names and this could be a problem again.

It says something that Tiafoe has only held 69% of service games played against Alex De Minaur compared with a 83% mark for the latter in the head to head.

Unsurprisingly it has led to the Australian winning four of the five previous matches between the players, including Alex De Minaur beating Frances Tiafoe at the US Open in four sets in 2018.

They did meet in a keenly contested match in Canada on the hard courts back in August, but Alex De Minaur found the breaks of serve needed and the feeling is that he can cover this spread even if dropping a set.

Learner Tien - 1.5 sets v Nuno Borges: Earlier this month, 20 year old American Learner Tien entered the top 30 in the World Rankings for the first time and that has meant a Seeding for the Australian Open.

Credit has to be given to him for backing that up by reaching the Third Round in Melbourne and the draw has opened up to give Learner Tien the chance of reaching the second week here. He did that on debut twelve months ago when making it through to the Fourth Round, but the next three Grand Slam events did not go nearly as well, which means Tien is in a position to take a big jump in the World Rankings over the next eleven months.

Learnier Tien did not have a lot of success in the warm up event for the Australian Open, but he is very comfortable on the hard courts and the ones here in Melbourne seem to really suit.

After needing five sets to beat a veteran compatriot in the First Round, Learner Tien was a much more dominant winner in the Second Round and that should mean the youngster has plenty in the tank.

However, he will need to be on his game considering the next opponent is the reason this portion of the draw has opened up.

Nuno Borges upset Felix Auger-Aliassime in five sets in the First Round and he backed that up by beating a home favourite in the Second. Eighteen months ago, Nuno Borges was a top 30 Ranked player and he has been a solid hard court player and one that can spring a surprise if being overlooked.

The numbers have not really been much to write home about over the last couple of years on the hard courts and Nuno Borges has a 40-34 win-loss record. He was just 3-2 in warm up events in anticipation of the Australian Open, but Borges will have taken confidence from the wins he has produced here.

A challenge for Nuno Borges is to be more competitive against a top 50 Ranked opponent on this surface and he is just 2-11 in hard court matches against such opponents over the last twelve months. He has not been able to get much out of his return game in those matches and the World Number 46 has simply not handled the pressure on the serve when having little impact on the other side of the net.

One of those losses was in straight sets to Learner Tien at the Paris Masters.

That is an indoor hard court event, but Tien will have taken a lot of confidence from the way he was able to contain Nuno Borges behind the serve and that could be the case again on Friday in this Third Round meeting.

The best Grand Slam runs that Nuno Borges has put together have been at the Australian Open and he did take a set from Carlos Alcaraz twelve months ago.

This has to be respected, but Learner Tien is an improving player on the Tour and should have enough to reach the second week behind a three or four set win.

Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 games v Fabian Marozsan: Winning a second Grand Slam title is the motivation that gets Daniil Medvedev out of bed every morning and he will feel that he should have been able to add to the 2021 US Open title by winning at least once in Melbourne.

Between 2021 and 2024, Daniil Medvedev reached the Final at the Australian Open in three out of four events run and he will have nightmares about the 2022 Final. He had led by two sets and a break against Rafael Nadal and had all of the momentum, but somehow things were allowed to slip away and Daniil Medvedev had to settle for a Runner Up trophy.

The World Number 12 has had his most success on the hard courts at Grand Slam level, but twelve months ago he was upset in the Second Round in Melbourne.

Little did Daniil Medvedev know that it would have been his best Grand Slam result of the year having been ousted in the First Round in Paris, London and New York City and so his two wins in the 2026 Australian Open have given him some confidence. These wins arrive after opening the season by capturing the title in Brisbane and so there is a real belief in the Medvedev game, even if he can still have those lapses of concentration that lead to dropped sets.

Only two sets have been dropped in seven wins to open 2026 and so Daniil Medvedev will go into this Third Round match as a strong favourite.

However, he will not be able to overlook Fabian Marozsan who has solid hard court numbers and who reached the Semi Final in Auckland in the build up to the opening Grand Slam of the season. Like his opponent, Marozsan has only dropped a single set in his run to the Third Round, but over the last twelve months, he has lost six of seven hard court matches played against top 20 Ranked opponents.

In those matches, Fabian Marozsan has struggled to make much of an impact on the return of serve and that has put some pressure on his own delivery. He has held 77% of service games played against some of the best players on the Tour, but that is not quite good enough and especially not in a best of five set format with more time afforded to the top players to 'get a read' on the serve.

Making it more challenging for the underdog is that he is facing Daniil Medvedev for the third time in the last eighteen months and both previous matches have been on hard courts.

They had a more competitive meeting at the US Open in 2024 than the final scoreline would suggest, but Daniil Medvedev was much more dominant when facing Fabian Marozsan in Almaty in October.

The higher Ranked player has held 83% of service games played in the two previous matches, but Daniil Medvedev has broken in 44% of return games and that is a considerable edge.

A poor year on the hard courts were littered with some disappointing defeats as far as Daniil Medvedev was concerned in 2025, but his numbers remained strong against opponents Ranked outside of the top 20. With the insight into the underdog's game in this one, Daniil Medvedev is expected to find a way to power through to the second week of the tournament and get his Ranking moving back towards the top 10 where he feels he belongs.

Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 games v Anastasia Potapova: Comments made by a debutant from the Ukraine have made a big impact at the Australian Open after criticisms aimed at the Belarusian and Russian players that are being allowed to continue to take part on the Tour.

The focus was made on some of the leading players on both the WTA and ATP Tours, but Aryna Sabalenka was particularly targeted for criticism and is perhaps going to be overshadowing the rest of the tournament.

The World Number 1 has tried not to get too involved in the back and forth with another player, but Aryna Sabalenka is likely going to be asked about an issue she would have hoped she has been addressing time and time again. While the war continues in Eastern Europe, it is impossible for people to completely ignore the matter, but Sabalenka and the Tours would have hoped their decisions made a couple of years ago would have at least closed some of the debate.

For now the World Number 1 has to try and focus on the court and she has been THE dominant player on the hard courts in recent Grand Slams- Aryna Sabalenka had won twice in a row in Melbourne before losing in the Final twelve months ago, but she made it consecutive successes in New York City in September 2025 having lost the Final in 2023.

She has moved through the first couple of Rounds with ease and Aryna Sabalenka is likely to be much more comfortable facing Anastasia Potapova in the Third Round, rather than Emma Raducanu.

In two previous matches on the Tour, Aryna Sabalenka has crushed this opponent and the likelihood is that the top Seed is going to have too much firepower again.

Anastasia Potapova is the World Number 55 and is a solid hard court performer, although she will need to be a lot better than solid if she is going to even give Aryna Sabalenka something to think about.

She has particularly struggled when facing top 20 Ranked players on the hard courts and the power of the opponent is likely going to lead to another relatively straight-forward win.

The spread is one that can quickly go wrong when backing the favourite, but Aryna Sabalenka has dominated behind serve in the two clay court matches against Anastasia Potapova and will be expecting to get even more from that shot on this surface.

Add in the number of breaks produced in those two wins and Sabalenka looks on course for another appearance in the second week in Melbourne behind a strong win.

Karolina Muchova - 4.5 games v Magda Linette: There are a couple of players on the WTA Tour who have gotten close to winning a Major, but who have to believe that time may be running out of they are going to finally pick up a Grand Slam title.

One of those is the World Number 19 Karolina Muchova, but she fought her way through the Second Round and that may give her confidence to have another deep run.

She has previously been a Quarter Finalist at all four Grand Slams and has reached the Semi Final at both the Australian Open and US Open. In 2023, Karolina Muchova came up short in the French Open Final, but this is a player that can produce on all surfaces and her record in Melbourne will be a source of disappointment.

In the last three seasons, Karolina Muchova has twice made the US Open Semi Final and once the Quarter Final, but a couple of Second Round exits have been the best results at the Australian Open. In fact, prior to this season, Muchova had won just two matches in Melbourne since making the Semi Final in 2021, but she has doubled that in 2026 and the Czech player is a strong favourite in this Third Round contest.

Next up is Magda Linette who has only been beyond the Third Round once in her career at Grand Slam level.

It will help the confidence that her best result was right here at the Australian Open when Linette had a stunning run to the Semi Final, but the 33 year old had a poor year on the hard courts in 2025.

Upsetting Emma Navarro has gotten her Australian Open run going, and there has to be some respect for the fact that Magda Linette has tended to produce her best tennis against the better opponents she has faced over the last twelve months, The 4-3 record against top 20 Ranked opponents on the hard courts deserves plenty of plaudits, but the World Number 50 has been operating on fine margins in those matches and the sub-40% number of points won on the return against those top players is a concern.

Over the last twelve months, Karolina Muchova has shown plenty of confidence behind the serve and she should be the stronger return player in this match.

Three wins in a row against Magda Linette on the Tour suggests the higher Ranked player matches up pretty well with this opponent and the dominant scores in those three wins adds to that belief.

The most recent meeting was in June 2024 on the grass courts and Karolina Muchova showed off her superior return player in that match.

We could see something similar here with Muchova moving onto the second week in Melbourne for just the second time in her career.

MY PICKS: Carlos Alcaraz - 9.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Alex De Minaur - 5.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Learner Tien - 1.5 Sets @ 1.85 William Hill (2 Units)

Daniil Medvedev - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Aryna Sabalenka - 6.5 Games @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Karolina Muchova - 4.5 Games @ 1.75 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 2.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Mirra Andreeva - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)

Tommy Paul - 1.5 Sets @ 1.95 Coral (2 Units)

Alexander Bublik - 4.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 17-7, + 14.48 Units (48 Units Staked, + 30.17% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 5 Picks 2026 (Thursday 22nd January)

Six selections were made on Day 4 of the Australian Open and five of them returned as winners.

This can only be seen as a positive, but there is still a touch of frustration that Alexander Zverev was not able to make it a clean sweep having broken in the fourth set and twice had 15-40 positions on the Alexandre Muller serve.

Most irritating is that at least one of those Break/Match Points were saved through sheer luck on the part of the Frenchman, but Zverev will just be glad to be through and it would have stung much more if four of the other five selections had already returned on the wrong side.

Two strong days in four have really helped the Tennis Pick numbers, but this is a tournament that still has plenty of days remaining and nothing is decided about the final outcome after four of the fifteen days have been completed.

Day 5 is looking like being the busiest of the tournament so far with seven selections set to go and those can be seen below.

Ben Shelton - 6.5 games v Dane Sweeny: Losing confidence on a tennis court can see a career spiral and that is certainly what happened to Dane Sweeny.

The 24 year old Australian had slipped well outside the top 500 and that has meant scrambling and fighting to get back into a position, such as the one he enjoyed on Tuesday when upsetting veteran Gael Monfils in the First Round at his home Grand Slam.

This is the first time Dane Sweeny has won a main draw match at a Grand Slam, while credit has to be given to the player for first battling through Qualifying.

Winning matches has rebuilt the confidence, even if those were mainly on the lower circuit compared with the ATP Tour, and Dane Sweeny is going to be playing with a new career-high World Ranking at the end of this tournament. This should help in his bid to perhaps earn the right to play in bigger events, which in turn will help Sweeny improve the Ranking further, and there is nothing to lose ahead of this very tough Second Round match.

His opponent has played thirteen Grand Slam tournaments and Ben Shelton has made the Quarter Final four times, while two of the three previous appearances at the Australian Open have been very productive. On debut Shelton made the Quarter Final in 2023 and he was a Semi Finalist twelve months ago, while the American is looking a little better on the court having struggled for form after being forced to retire mid-match at the US Open back in September.

You know what to expect from Shelton- he has a monster serve and he will be looking to use that shot to keep the pressure on his inexperienced opponent, especially having seen Reilly Opelka do that against Dane Sweeny to very good effect earlier this month.

However, taking the next step in his career and winning a Major will depend on whether Ben Shelton can improve what is a vulnerable return game.

This is the kind of match in which Ben Shelton can perhaps exert his dominance a little more having broken in 30% of return games when playing those Ranked outside the top 100 compared with his overall 18% mark.

Dane Sweeny gave up 8 Break Points in the defeat to Reilly Opelka in a best of three set format and he may struggle to contain Ben Shelton, who will appreciate the atmosphere that will likely be generated by the home crowd.

A solid First Round win is expected to be backed up by Ben Shelton and he may just have too much know-how for the home player as he makes his way through to the Third Round.

Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 sets v Marin Cilic: Two former top ten Ranked players meet in the Second Round at the Australian Open after coming through opening matches with something to spare.

These days Denis Shapovalov is trying his best to get back into the top 20, while the veteran Marin Cilic is 37 years old and the World Number 70.

Marin Cilic is also a former US Open Champion and a beaten Finalist both at Wimbledon and right here at the Australian Open. He has reached the Fourth Round three times since the Final, but Marin Cilic has been dealing with injury in the latter part of his career and he had missed two of the last three Australian Open tournaments and had suffered a First Round defeat in the other.

He did not drop a game in the first two sets against Daniel Altmaier, but Marin Cilic has to expect this to be a much tougher match.

Prior to that victory, Marin Cilic had played ten matches against top 50 Ranked opponents on the hard courts over the last twelve months and had been beaten eight times. His numbers remain poor against the better players on the Tour, especially on this surface, and that is going to be a tough bridge to gap, even against someone who has been a little inconsistent as Denis Shapovalov has been.

The main reason Denis Shapovalov has been able to avoid slipping too far behind the top 20 in the World Rankings has been a solid year on the hard courts.

One of the main areas of improvement that were needed was on the return of serve and he showed some of that last season, while Denis Shapovalov has also made sure he has not been beaten too many times in matches that he should win.

In the last twelve months, the Canadian has won seventeen of twenty hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside the top 50- his return numbers have been impressive in those matches and that may be the difference for Denis Shapovalov against this veteran.

They have not faced one another since August 2020 on the hard courts, but Denis Shapovalov won the last three between himself and Marin Cilic on this surface. He will have plenty of respect for the opponent standing across the net, but Shapovalov should be the stronger player at this stage of the respective careers and can find the tennis needed to secure passage in three or four sets.

Karen Khachanov - 4.5 games v Nishesh Basavareddy: This is a repeat of a First Round match from the US Open in August 2025 and it would be a surprise if Karen Khachanov is not able to frank that victory with another over Qualifier Nishesh Basavareddy.

The latter has already been a part of a viral moment at the 2026 Australian Open- during Qualifiers, his opponent celebrated after reaching 7 points in a final set tie-breaker, but had forgotten that it was a 'Super Tie-Breaker' and first to reach 10 points.

It clearly inspired Nishesh Basavareddy who fought back for the victory and made the 'choke' celebration when the win was confirmed.

Coming through three Qualifying matches will have given the 20 year old American a lot of confidence and he then spent over four hours on the court to get the better of his First Round opponent. That was a victory over an Australian, which will also have given Basavareddy confidence, but none of the opponents beaten in Melbourne have been Ranked inside the top 100 and this time the American faces the World Number 18.

There was nothing wrong with the numbers being produced by Karen Khachanov on the hard courts in 2025, but the 15-15 record was disappointing.

He has not been beaten before the Third Round at the Australian Open since 2018 and Karen Khachanov has previously reached the Semi Final at this opening Grand Slam.

Karen Khachanov has lost his last two matches on the hard courts when facing someone Ranked outside the top 100, but the last twelve months has seen him win many of those matches in confident style.

When he played Nishesh Basavareddy in New York City, Karen Khachanov was winning around 10% more points behind serve compared with his younger opponent and he has to believe he still has the power to dominate at times.

There is a big gap to bridge and Nishesh Basavareddy lost all five matches on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents over the last twelve months- in those, Basavareddy has held just 56% of service games played, while also struggling on the return, and you have to think that Karen Khachanov will eventually wear down the younger player in this best of five set format.

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 games v McCartney Kessler: Her family own the Buffalo Bills and some are wondering if that team have had their Super Bowl window close after the latest Playoff defeat- the question for Jessica Pegula is whether she can at least keep her Grand Slam window open a little longer at almost 32 years old.

The American is still the World Number 6, but it does feel like the WTA Tour has at least one or two players that will have too much for Jessica Pegula at the business end of the biggest events over the next few months.

A Semi Final run in the warm up to the Australian Open will have given Pegula some confidence and she was a strong winner in the First Round. It is important to keep something in the tank for later in the event and Jessica Pegula will feel pretty confident with the match up that has been presented to her in the next Round.

McCartney Kessler is a potentially dangerous opponent, and she is very comfortable on the hard courts, but she was beaten pretty comfortably against Madison Keys in the warm up to the Australian Open.

However, Kessler has shown that she can compete with the very best players on the Tour on the hard courts with her 4-6 record against top 20 players over the last twelve months to be respected. Six months ago she reached the top 30 for the first time and McCartney Kessler has a serve that can put opponents under significant pressure when she is feeling at her best.

There is room for improvement on the return of serve, and this Jessica Pegula serve is an underrated part of her game.

When these two players met in the Austin Final in February 2025, Jessica Pegula showed she had a bit more from her serve compared with McCartney Kessler and that may be the case when they meet again in Melbourne.

At 26 years old, it does feel like there is more to come from McCartney Kessler who has win overs Coco Gauff and Mirra Andreeva on the hard courts in 2025. That will earn her plenty of respect, but Pegula should have the experience to ride out some of the tougher moments within the match and ultimately come through with a solid win on the scoreboard.

MY PICKS: Ben Shelton - 6.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Denis Shapovalov - 1.5 Sets @ 2.30 Coral (2 Units)

Karen Khachanov - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jessica Pegula - 4.5 Games @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)

Belinda Bencic - 5.5 Games @ 1.66 Bet365 (2 Units)

Anna Kalinskaya - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Amanda Anisimova - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 12-5, + 10.48 Units (34 Units Staked, + 30.82% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 4 Picks 2026 (Wednesday 21st January)

Day 3 proved to be a little more difficult with the selections going 1-2, but the numbers are decent enough through the First Round.

The Australian Open will settle down from here with the Second Round played over two days and moving into a format much more familiar to the fans.

Of course it is nice to hear the majority of the top players have moved through the First Round, but the challenges will begin to get tougher and tougher.

Conditions have not been an issue so far at the tournament, but Melbourne does tend to get very hot and that will be an issue later in the week and early into next week- for now, most players should be comfortable, although the wind and potential rainy conditions late into Day 4 could be a factor.

After a couple of 'quieter' days, the selections from Day 4 can be read below with six Picks made.

Tommy Paul - 7.5 games v Thiago Agustin Tirante: Three years ago he made the Semi Final here in Melbourne and Tommy Paul was able to work his way through to the Quarter Final last year. He won his First Round match in the 2026 tournament with something to spare and the American looks good to make it through to the Third Round again.

Six months ago, Tommy Paul was inside the top 10 of the World Rankings, but he begins this event as the World Number 20 after a relatively quiet second half of the 2025 season.

A run to the Adelaide Semi Final in the warm up to the Australian Open will have given Tommy Paul some confidence and he should have the quality of hard court tennis to beat this opponent.

Thiago Agustin Tirante may be most happy on a clay court, but he is just outside of the top 100 of the World Rankings after putting a solid year on the board on this surface.

However, the majority of those matches on the hard courts were played at Challenger or Qualifier level and this is a significant step upwards in terms of level of opponent. The serve could be an important weapon, although Tirante is facing someone who has been able to get into return games very effectively on this surface.

Tommy Paul has produced some very solid numbers against players Ranked outside the top 50 over the last twelve months- he has not only held 91% of service games played in those hard court matches, but Paul has broken in 27% of return games and he will look to put the pressure on Thiago Agustin Tirante in this one.

The break percentage moves up to 33% when only focusing on matches against players outside of the top 100 and Tommy Paul can back up the First Round win with a similar margin of victory.

Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 games v Francisco Comesana: He was able to roll through the gears after coming through a tight first set in the First Round, but Frances Tiafoe will know that he needs to be a lot better if he is going to have a serious impact in Melbourne.

Four of the last five appearances at the Australian Open have ended in the Second Round, but Frances Tiafoe has to look at this match as an opportunity.

His World Ranking has been slipping over the last several months and there is a danger that Frances Tiafoe will not be Seeded at Grand Slam events to be played in 2026. He is the Number 29 Seed at the Australian Open, but another early exit and then a couple of poor months on the Tour would push Frances Tiafoe into a position where he could end up facing top names right from the outset in a Major.

After winning in straight sets, Frances Tiafoe is taking on Francisco Comesana.

Like many playing out of South America, Francisco Comesana will spend the majority of his time playing clay court tennis and his hard court numbers have been steady, but unspectacular. Over the last twelve months, Comesana has really had a tough time when drawn against top 50 Ranked opponents and his service numbers have not been nearly as effective as they would need to be on a hard court.

Francisco Comesana is not playing an opponent who has the most consistent return on the Tour, but Frances Tiafoe may be able to begin to exert his control on the match the longer it goes.

This is what happened in the First Round and the World Number 34 might just be able to produce something similar as he looks to overcome the same spread as faced against Jason Kubler.

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 games v Alexandre Muller: This is the fourth time Alexander Zverev and Alexandre Muller will be facing one another in the last eighteen months and the second time they will be meeting in a Grand Slam played on the hard courts.

At the 2024 US Open, Alexander Zverev was able to wear down this opponent and the World Number 3 should be in control of this Second Round match, even if he can sometimes be a little too passive in his play.

Some will criticise Alexander Zverev for the slow start made against Gabriel Diallo, but that was a tough First Round match and by the end he was cruising past the Canadian. This time he will be facing an opponent who is actually Ranked lower than Diallo and the match up should be one that keeps Zverev relatively comfortable.

Alexandre Muller is getting the most out of his talent and has to be credited for his World Ranking, while he upset home hope Alexei Popyrin in the First Round. That is a win that deserves plenty of respect in a hostile atmosphere, but the Frenchman struggles on the return of serve and that will always make big wins that much harder to come.

That has been the case in the previous matches against Zverev with just 14% of return games ending in breaks of serve.

However, the most recent match saw Alexandre Muller upset Alexander Zverev on the clay courts of Hamburg and that will give the underdog some belief.

He has been stronger on the clay courts compared with the hard courts and the switch onto this surface should favour the World Number 3.

There will be moments that Alexandre Muller can roll through his service games, but the best of five set format clearly favours Alexander Zverev. A similar match to the First Round could end up developing with Zverev beginning to get a read on the Muller serve and that was the case when they played on the hard courts of New York City.

Focus will be the key for Alexander Zverev- as long as he avoids some sloppy moments, he should be the better player and can eventually make sure that shows on the final scoreboard.

Francisco Cerundolo - 5.5 games v Damir Dzumhur: He helped produce one of the winners on Day 1 at the Australian Open and Francisco Cerundolo may be worth backing to do the same with a similar level of dominance in the Second Round.

The tennis produced is pretty eye-pleasing and Cerundolo is comfortable on the hard courts.

The World Number 21 did not drop a set in the First Round win and Francisco Cerundolo is going to be very confident with this match up against a 33 year old who has been struggling to stay in the top 50 of the World Rankings.

Damir Dzumhur is the current World Number 66 and he had lost both matches played before a First Round win over a Qualifier.

He had a pretty average year on the hard courts in 2025 and Damir Dzumhur has really had issues over the last twelve months when he has faced the stronger players on the Tour. In that time, Dzumhur has lost seven of nine matches played on the hard courts against top 50 Ranked opponents and the serve has been very vulnerable in those matches with just 68% of those games ending in a hold of serve.

Someone like Francisco Cerundolo will want to use his aggression to get on top of that serve and really put Damir Dzumhur under pressure.

That was the case when they met at the Paris Masters on an indoor hard court at the end of the 2025 season and Francisco Cerundolo broke the Dzumhur serve five times in a two set win.

There is no doubt that Damir Dzumhur will have his moments of putting Francisco Cerundolo's serve under a bit of pressure and that is partly down to the aggressive, front foot tennis that the Argentinian player likes to produce. That kind of style will lead to some mistakes and Dzumhur has found breaks in 24% of return games played against Cerundolo.

However, he is yet to beat the higher Ranked player because Damir Dzumhur has won just 50% of points played behind his own serve and he has been broken in 52% of service games played. This is a number that will keep anyone under pressure and Francisco Cerundolo looks ready to move through to the Third Round at the Australian Open behind another solid victory.

The First Round win means Francisco Cerundolo has won ten of the twelve hard court matches played against opponents Ranked outside of the top 50 over the last twelve months.

In those, Francisco Cerundolo has held 78% of service games played and broken in 25% of return games and he should be able to maintain his dominance over this opponent by covering the spread on his way through to the next Round.

MY PICKS: Tommy Paul - 7.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Frances Tiafoe - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 Bet365 (2 Units)

Alexander Zverev - 6.5 Games @ 1.61 Bet Fred (2 Units)

Francisco Cerundolo - 5.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Victoria Mboko - 3.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (2 Units)

Elina Svitolina - 5.5 Games @ 1.80 William Hill (2 Units)

Australian Open Update: 7-4, + 3.80 Units (22 Units Staked, + 17.27% Yield)

Australian Open Tennis Day 3 Picks 2026 (Tuesday 20th January)

The First Round is concluded at the Australian Open on Tuesday as Day 3 of the tournament gets underway.

In the main, the top names have managed to get through the opening Round and there will be plenty of tougher obstacles to overcome if they are going to move on and win the Australian Open. Some of the other contenders are going to want to follow suit on Day 3, although it looks another day to pick off some selections.

Monday produced a 1-1 return for the selections made, but that continues a solid start to the opening Grand Slam of the 2026 season.

Three Picks have been made for Day 3 and those can be read below.

Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 games v Shintaro Mochizuki: He is barely holding onto a Seeding at the 2026 Australian Open, but Stefanos Tsitsipas may feel comfortable in the Melbourne surroundings.

He has dropped down to World Number 33, but a couple of withdrawals means he is the Number 31 Seed in the tournament.

However, Stefanos Tsitsipas has reached the Semi Final three times at the Australian Open and has also added an appearance in the Final in another tournament Down Under. This can only give him confidence as he looks to at least surpass the First Round and avoid opening exits in this event for the second season in a row, which would be a big disappointment to the huge amount of fans that come to support Tsitsipas.

Throughout his career, Stefanos Tsitsipas has tended to play his best tennis in the first half of the season and he is hoping that things have settled off the court, which will allow him to play his best on the court. A disappointing loss early in Adelaide will not have overshadowed what has been a solid opening to the month for the former World Number 3 and he is a favourite against this younger opponent.

Shintaro Mochizuki is still outside of the top 100 in the World Rankings and he has struggled for the consistency that will be needed if he is going to surpass his career best mark of World Number 92.

Eight losses in his last nine hard court matches will not have given Mochizuki much confidence and he was beaten in both matches at the United Cup and in Qualifying in Auckland in preparation for this opening Grand Slam.

Over the last twelve months, Shintaro Mochizuki is 1-4 on the hard courts when facing a top 50 Ranked opponent on the hard courts and he has struggled to be competitive in those matches.

One of the defeats was to Stefanos Tsitsipas at the United Cup and that match will just settle any nerves that the Greek player may have otherwise have felt prior to the Australian Open getting underway.

The contest was competitive, but Stefanos Tsitsipas created a lot more Break Points than his opponent and the numbers produced by Shintaro Mochizuki were similar to those he has put together against the better players on the Tour. Those have left the World Number 112 short of the top opponents faced and Stefanos Tsitsipas should earn the breaks he needs to cover a slightly awkward line.

In reality that is largely down to the inconsistency that Tsitsipas has produced as a return player, but he should be confident enough in this match up to earn the four or five breaks that may be needed to cover this mark.

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 games v Antonia Ruzic: The return to the Tour has been pretty challenging for Naomi Osaka, even if the former World Number 1 has shown signs of getting closer to her best tennis.

The run to the US Open Semi Final back in September will have given Naomi Osaka a huge boost- this is her best Grand Slam run since winning the Australian Open in 2021. Prior to becoming a mother for the first time, Naomi Osaka had been the dominant hard court player on the WTA Tour and it is impossible to ignore the fact that she won four Grand Slam titles on the surface.

Two of those were right here in Melbourne, although Naomi Osaka has been beaten in the First Round and Third Round in her last two appearances here.

However, the improvement in the second half of the 2025 season means Naomi Osaka has moved back inside the top 20 of the World Rankings. This is important for Osaka in terms of being able to avoid the top names on the Tour until the Third Round at least and this gives the former World Number 1 an opportunity to build some momentum into the biggest events of the 2026 year over the next eleven months.

For all of the improvement, there is scope for more with Naomi Osaka looking to show a bit more on the return of serve, while she is 1-1 on the hard courts in preparation for this event.

First up for Naomi Osaka is a match up against Antonio Ruzic who is the World Number 71 and who has lost her sole match in the build up to the Australian Open.

The 22 year old has steady numbers when facing players Ranked inside the top 50 over the last twelve months on the hard courts, but she is 0-3 when facing top 20 Ranked opponents. That is the challenge for the younger player and she has not really been able to get into the return games in those matches against the best players on the Tour.

Antonio Ruzic is going to have to serve well to try and build some pressure on Naomi Osaka, but the latter has gotten to grips with facing those she should be beating. Over the last twelve months, Osaka is 8-4 when facing those outside of the top 50 and a couple of those defeats could easily have gone in her way with a bit more fortune at the biggest moments.

Only one of the last seven Grand Slam tournaments have ended in a First Round defeat for Naomi Osaka and she may have just enough in hand to cover this awkward line set for this match.

Sloane Stephens - 3.5 games v Karolina Pliskova: Two former Grand Slam Finalists meet in the First Round at the Australian Open in 2026 and Sloane Stephens and Karolina Pliskova are both Ranked outside of the top 1000.

That is less to do with their talent, but more to do with injuries meaning limited time spent on the court over the last twelve months and so every win in Melbourne will provide a significant boost.

With both turning 33 and 34 respectively in March, you do have to accept that Stephens and Pliskova are in the final stages of what have been strong careers. Sloane Stephens won a Grand Slam title at the US Open, while losing another at the French Open, while Karolina Pliskova reached two Grand Slam Finals without winning a Major.

Of course it is the Czech player who earned the World Number 1 position, while Sloane Stephens is a former World Number 3, and both players are very familiar with one another.

Since returning from a year long lay off, Karolina Pliskova has lost all three matches played on the Tour and is making her debut in 2026. This has to be a potential factor in the match and it is the main reason that Pliskova has been set as the underdog in this contest.

Sloane Stephens also returned in 2025 and failed to win a match before losing early in Auckland, but the American decided to take part in the Qualifiers for the Australian Open rather than looking for a Wild Card. She is a former Semi Finalist at this Grand Slam, but six of the last eight appearances at the Australian Open have ended in a First Round defeat.

Three Qualifying wins will have given Sloane Stephens a real boost and the performances in those matches will also be a real shot of confidence.

It also will help the American that she has won six of the seven matches against Karolina Pliskova on the main Tour and that includes both previous hard court contests.

Neither player is at the level they once were, but Sloane Stephens should be all the better for the tennis that she has gotten under her belt this past week.

Her tennis matches up pretty well with Karolina Pliskova and that may show up on the final scoreboard in this clash of two veterans that once pushed for Grand Slam titles, but are just trying to remain in position to compete on the Tour these days.

MY PICKS: Stefanos Tsitsipas - 6.5 Games @ 1.80 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Naomi Osaka - 4.5 Games @ 1.70 William Hill (1 Unit)

Sloane Stephens - 3.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)

Australian Open Update: 6-2, + 6.20 Units (16 Units Staked, + 38.75% Yield)