It has been a difficult couple of days for the Tennis Picks, but there is still every chance of ending this week on a positive.
All of the Quarter Final matches are scheduled to be played on Friday and this is the busiest day of the week for the Tennis Picks and one that may just determine whether it is a bounce back seven days for the selections or not.
Leylah Fernandez - 1.5 games v Dayana Yastremska: When this Quarter Final was set and the markets were released, Leylah Fernandez had been set as the underdog, but that is far from the case now.
It felt like the wrong way round considering the previous form these two players have displayed on the grass courts and Leylah Fernandez should have enough to reach the Semi Final in Nottingham.
She is a strange player- once in a while there is a big run, but Fernandez has struggled for consistency over the last twelve months and the 32-26 record highlights that. However, she is still the World Number 30 and the lefty has a decent game for the grass courts, although her best run at Wimbledon is reaching the Third Round last year.
During that summer on this surface, Leylah Fernandez also reached the Quarter Final in Birmingham and Final in Eastbourne, while her loss last week to Tatjana Maria at Queen's Club doesn't look nearly as bad considering the veteran went on to lift the title.
Both wins in Nottingham have been deserved, and Leylah Fernandez looks to be in good shape as she prepares to try and beat Dayana Yastremska for a third time on the pro Tour.
Any player that puts a couple of wins on the board at a tournament will be feeling confident, but Dayana Yastremska has bailed herself out of some tough spots. Continuing to face the Break Points and coming out on top is tough for any professional player and Yastremska is likely going to have to deal with a few more on serve in this Quarter Final.
In recent years Dayana Yastremska has been solid, if unspectacular, on the grass courts and this is a considerable step in terms of level of opponent compared with the Second Round win. Even in the previous two matches, the serve has been a little vulnerable and that should give the Canadian the edge in this Quarter Final and especially with the mental advantage of knowing she has beaten Yastremska twice previously.
Aryna Sabalenka-Elena Rybakina over 22.5 games: Would it surprise anyone if in three weeks time Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina are the last two standing in the Ladies tournament at Wimbledon?
Both players have had plenty of success on the grass and they have all of the weapons needed for another deep run at SW19.
It is Elena Rybakina who has gotten over the line by winning the title at Wimbledon, but the motivation will be very high in the Aryna Sabalenka camp to see their player join her in the winner's enclosure. Both Grand Slam runs have ended in the Final in Melbourne and Paris and the World Number 1 will be desperate to have at least one major title under her belt before heading back to New York City in August.
The one grass court match played underlined Aryna Sabalenka's capabilities on the serve, but it is the return that will be tested.
We can the exact same for Elena Rybakina who has a huge serve for this surface, but who has not been returning as well as she would have liked in her matches on the grass in 2025. The returning numbers can be picked up a little bit, but the Rybakina serve has been important for her and helped the World Number 11 win three of the four matches played on grass this season.
Matches between these players are usually very competitive and this Quarter Final could very much trend in that direction.
All six of the wins produced by Aryna Sabalenka have been in three set matches, while the straight set wins have been earned by Elena Rybakina in three of her four wins in this rivalry. However, only two of the ten matches played between these players has ended with less than 23 games shared out and both have the capabilities of serving well enough to secure at least a set each or, at the very least, push this into two tight, competitive sets that perhaps need at least one tie-breaker.
Jack Draper - 3.5 games v Brandon Nakashima: He made harder work of his win over Alexei Popyrin than anticipated, but Jack Draper did win and there will be a lot of hope and belief that the British Number 1 can enjoy a big two weeks at Wimbledon.
The draw will be key, but Jack Draper is a confident player on the grass and his numbers have been impressive over the last twelve months.
My one concern with backing Draper is that I can't remember being on the right side of too many of his matches, including that Second Round contest a couple of days ago.
He is a capable server and so Jack Draper will believe he can contain the threat of Brandon Nakashima and try and build some scoreboard pressure on the 23 year old American. Much like Draper, Brandon Nakashima has shown he can produce some real quality on the grass courts, although he has perhaps not had the big wins to really boost the confidence on the surface.
The serve can be a potent weapon for Brandon Nakashima too, but Alexander Zverev was able to string enough points together to break him twice in Stuttgart last week. Twelve months ago it was Jack Draper finding the breaks of serve at the same tournament to comfortably progress past Nakashima and the British player has won the last two matches between them on the Tour.
One poor service game let Jack Draper down as far as the handicap was concerned in the Second Round, but he may have a bit more success in this Quarter Final on the return and that could see him cover.
Holger Rune - 3.5 games v Roberto Bautista Agut: The World Number 9 has only just turned 22 years old and that should mean we have yet to see the very best tennis from Holger Rune.
Last year he reached the Fourth Round at Wimbledon and Holger Rune has shown he has the tennis that is needed to be a successful grass court contender. That run was ended by Novak Djokovic, but Rune may be hoping for better in 2025 with a potentially clearer draw into the Quarter Final and from there his confidence will be in a good place.
Two solid wins have been put together at Queen's to reach the Quarter Final and Holger Rune deserves to be the favourite against veteran Roberto Bautista Agut.
A former top ten Ranked player in his own right, Roberto Bautista Agut has slipped outside the top 50 in the World Rankings and there has been a decline in his performances over the last twelve months. However, the Spaniard is coming into the grass court season still believing he can be competitive on this surface thanks to his experience and previous successes.
He was beaten early in Hertogenbosch, but Roberto Bautista Agut has come through two matches at Queen's in three sets and that does display some confidence.
Of course he is going to have to be better to beat someone like Holger Rune who has won all three of their previous matches on the Tour.
One of those wins came at the French Open last month and Holger Rune looks to be the superior return player of the two, which may be decisive on this surface. Both have been serving well, but the younger player will have more in the tank and that should see the Dane come through with a solid victory to take his place in the Semi Final in West London on Saturday.
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 games v Alex Michelsen: The United States have always been able to produce very effective grass court tennis players, even if the majority are built up on the hard courts. Movement is the one aspect that is perhaps hardest to understand, but the grass allows the big-serving American players to put plenty of pressure on the opponent.
It feels like 20 year old Alex Michelsen is going to be a solid grass courter in the years ahead having reached the Final in Newport twice in a row and picking up plenty of wins in the warm up tournaments being held in Europe ahead of the third Grand Slam of the season.
He has won two more here in Halle, including upsetting Stefanos Tsitsipas in the Second Round and Alex Michelsen will feel he can frustrate Daniil Medvedev if he is serving as well as he can.
In his relatively short grass court career, Alex Michelsen has won 67% of the points played and that is always going to give him a chance to use the scoreboard to make the opponent feel under pressure. He will feel there is room for improvement when it comes to the return and that will be tested by someone like Daniil Medvedev, especially after producing two solid wins in the main draw.
There was a time when Medvedev did not like playing on this surface, but the last couple of years have been much stronger and his serve can be just as effective as the one that Michelsen will bring onto the court.
Daniil Medvedev is another player who will feel there is more to come from the return, but he has looked better in that aspect this past few days in Halle. He has the capabilities of coming through a tight first set to break the back of the match and Daniil Medvedev can reach the Semi Final with a solid win under his belt.
MY PICKS: Leylah Fernandez - 1.5 Games @ 1.85 William Hill (1 Unit)
Aryna Sabalenka- Elena Rybakina Over 22.5 Games @ 1.87 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jack Draper - 3.5 Games @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Holger Rune - 3.5 Games @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Daniil Medvedev - 2.5 Games @ 1.72 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Weekly Update: 6-5, - 0.16 Units (11 Units Staked, - 1.45% Yield)