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Boxing Picks 2026- Johnny Fisher vs Michael Pirotton (Saturday 26th September)

After the back and forth over a number of weeks and months, an announcement was made that Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua would finally be mee...

Thursday, 24 October 2024

NFL Week 8 Picks 2024 (Thursday 24th October-Monday 28th October)

As we reach the end of October, the NFL regular season has very much begun to take shape with teams almost halfway through the schedule.

Barring significant injuries, the likes of Kansas City, Buffalo, Baltimore and Detroit look to be managing the expectations that would have been around those teams in the build to the 2024 season. All four look capable Super Bowl Champions and it would take significant injuries to Quarter Backs to prevent those teams making the Playoffs at the very least.

Strong trades have been made by a couple of those teams to further their ambitions for the season, and more moves are expected ahead of the deadline which will have the fans of those four teams planning a trip to New Orleans in February.

Others like the Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans and Philadelphia Eagles may be comfortable with their current positions, while surprises develop every year in the NFL.

Despite their loss to the Lions, the Minnesota Vikings remain on a good path and you can only be excited by what Russell Wilson brought to the Pittsburgh Steelers in their blowout win over the New York Jets. If they are able to bring in Cooper Kuup in a trade from the Los Angeles Rams, the Steelers will be all in for the season and the League is shaping up nicely.


Some teams have reached the level expected, but there are some, like my Miami Dolphins, that have a lot of work to do- Tua Tagovailoa looks set to return this weekend, but there will be concerns about the Quarter Back who cannot afford too many more big blows to the head. Mike McDaniels tenure as Head Coach looks to be linked with how well Tagovailoa can recover from his latest concussion, although the team have shown excitement about having their Quarter Back return and there is still time for Miami to turn things around.

That will also be the hope for teams like San Francisco, New York Jets and Cincinnati who have underachieved early on, but who have time to just turn things around. The Bengals at least have some momentum, and that is what the Dolphins, Jets and 49ers will be hoping as we move into Week 8 of the regular season.


Week 7 continued the really strong start to the 2024 season, although some meat was left on the bone.

The Cleveland Browns should have really turned things over to Jameis Winston instead of Dorian Thompson-Robinson when Deshaun Watson went down with an injury that will rule him out for the remainder of 2024. If they had done that, they would have covered, while the injury to Tyler Huntley meant the Miami Dolphins were unable to cover.

In reality, there is no way I would have picked the Dolphins if I had known that Tim Boyle was going to be needed at Quarter Back.

Denver, Jacksonville and Philadelphia covered easily and a late Field Goal helped Arizona beat the Los Angeles Chargers on Monday Night Football to keep the positive momentum going.

Seven weeks are in the books and six of those have returned with a plus number, which really cannot be seen as anything but a good start to the year.

The first selections from Week 8 will be from the Sunday games- with trade rumours around the Los Angeles Rams, I did consider backing the Minnesota Vikings. However, teams that have a long winning run snapped can struggle to pick themselves up and the short week will make it more difficult for the Vikings, who have been rumoured to make a move for Matthew Stafford if the Rams are in selling mode.

Ultimately there are too many uncertainties about Thursday Night Football and better picks can be made later in this week.

This thread will have those selections added to it and hopefully it will be another week of more winners than losers to keep the strong opening to 2024 going.


Arizona Cardinals @ Miami Dolphins Pick: After watching some of the Quarter Back play produced over the four games, you can understand why there is so much excitement within the Miami Dolphins (2-4) locker room that Tua Tagovailoa has been cleared from concussion protocol. Keeping Tagovailoa healthy was something that Miami managed to do in 2023, but questions remain about the long-term health of a player that has had far too many concussions already.

The Quarter Back will need to spark things for the Miami Dolphins who have lost four of their last five games and been a mess Offensively.

You cannot be that surprised about that when Tim Boyle is taking snaps for your team, but Miami want to be careful about asking too much of a player that is only just returning after a concussion. For most players that is challenging, but there is extra caution around Tua Tagovailoa because of his history and you can only hope that he can stay healthy, even if it eventually means retirement is better for his long-term well-being.

This may be a decent opponent to face on his return when the Arizona Cardinals (3-4) make the long trip east after playing on Monday Night Football and also in the early Eastern Time slot. A late win over the Los Angeles Chargers has just given the Cardinals momentum within the NFC West with just a game between the Cardinals and Divisional leaders Seattle Seahawks, but this is a tough scheduling spot.

Defensively there have been issues for the Arizona Cardinals and facing this Miami Dolphins team is going to be a lot different with Tua Tagovailoa at Quarter Back rather than those that have been starting of late.

It is important for the Offensive Line to continue opening up the running lanes to ease some of the pressure on Tua Tagovailoa, who will be playing with serious expectations after the way the season has been developing for Miami without him. The Dolphins should be able to hand the ball off to De'Von Achane to pick up some big yards on the ground and playing from third and manageable would make Miami very dangerous.

And it is not as if the Cardinals Secondary have played so well that they can sell out to try and stop the run and see if that can slow down the Offensive units being played. Instead the pass rush has been struggling to get going and the last few weeks has seen Quarter Backs pile up the numbers against the Arizona Cardinals, which can only be good news for Tyreek Hill and Jayden Waddle with a competent Quarter Back returning to take the snaps.

Miami's Defensive unit have kept the team competitive without their Quarter Back, although they have not been facing too many top Offensive teams. Much like Arizona, Miami have struggled to stop the run and James Connor is expected to have a big outing for the Cardinals and give the team an opportunity.

It also feels like a game in which Kyler Murray can have an impact as a runner out of the Quarter Back position, although Arizona will want his arm to do some of the heavy lifting too. Like Arizona, Miami have struggled to generate much of a pass rush of late and this Cardinals Offensive Line have offered protection when Murray has stepped back to throw, although the Miami Secondary have been able to deal with the limited passing threat offered by the likes of Will Levis, Mason Rudolph and Jacoby Brissett.

Kyler Murray will offer more and he does have some solid Receiving options as Arizona look to get Marvin Harrison Jr going. Everything depends on the run game though and Arizona should have their successes in this one too, which should make it a fun watch.

However, the schedule spot looks tough for Arizona and the Dolphins may have the balance Offensively that has been missing of late.

Backing a Quarter Back on his return from concussion is never idea, but the Miami Dolphins just need someone competent to play the position and Tua Tagovailoa might just make enough plays to see them to a win by around a Touchdown mark.


Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: At the beginning of October, the Atlanta Falcons (4-3) were able to get the better of a shootout with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-3).

They meet again in another NFC South Divisional game before the end of the month and this is a big opportunity for the Falcons to secure a tie-breaker, which could be crucial in what is expected to be a tight Divisional race. The injuries that the Buccaneers have suffered on Monday Night Football are going to have a big impact on the next few weeks and it may be tough for Tampa Bay to keep up if this develops into another high-scoring battle.

Both Chris Godwin and Mike Evans have picked up serious injuries- Evans may return around Week 11/12, but Godwin is expected to miss the rest of the season and so the Buccaneers passing game is going to need new faces to step up. There is some talent here, but those players can show up in spots when Defensive Backs are focusing on the big name Receivers.

Without them it will be tougher for Baker Mayfield and the Buccaneers, although they may be able to lean on Rachaad White and Bucky Irving to move the ball on the ground. That may be the game plan to keep the Atlanta Falcons Offensive unit on the sidelines, while the weakness of the Falcons Defensive unit has been stopping the run rather than the pass.

It has been possible to have success throwing the ball against the Falcons, but finding consistency through the air against them has not been so easy. This would have been a challenge even with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin in the lineup, especially when adding the fact that Tampa Bay had less than 175 passing yards in the first game against the Falcons with those two Receivers available.

Baker Mayfield will have time to attack the Falcons and the running game will help, but this could be another tough match up against Atlanta unless the Defensive unit can pick up their level.

The Falcons put up 550 Offensive yards in the win over the Buccaneers and Tampa Bay just allowed the Baltimore Ravens to score 41 points.

The majority of the yards in the first game came courtesy of Kirk Cousins, but this should be a game in which Bijan Robinson can have a bigger impact than in the first meeting. Atlanta's Offensive Line have played well and we just saw the Baltimore Ravens run all over the Buccaneers, which should be music to the ears of Robinson and Tyler Allgeier, while also making sure Cousins is able to have a bit of pressure eased from his shoulders.

Atlanta were battered by the Seattle Seahawks last week and so this is a big bounce back spot for them.

Kirk Cousins threw two Interceptions in that defeat, but had four Touchdown passes and a single Interception in the win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Running the ball should mean the Falcons are playing in front of the chains, which will open up the passing game for the Quarter Back, and Kirk Cousins should have a performance that is similar to the one he did earlier this month.

You do have to expect the Buccaneers to try and step up and cover for the absence of their two top Receivers, but this may not be a good match up for them.

Both teams should be able to run the ball, but Kirk Cousins might outplay Baker Mayfield and another win for the Falcons over the Buccaneers would mean taking command of the NFC South, even at this early stage of the season.

Atlanta have found a bit of form, even accounting for the loss to Seattle, and the short week for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers may see them come up a little short at home against their main rival within this Division.


Green Bay Packers @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There was a fear that the return from playing two games in London would have been at a time when a new Head Coach would be needed, but the Jacksonville Jaguars (2-5) were able to get the better of the New England Patriots in Week 7. That was important for Head Coach Doug Pederson just seven days after a pretty poor showing against the Chicago Bears, but the Jaguars have plenty of work to do if they are going to get back into contention in the AFC South.

It really does not help that the Jaguars are about to embark on a really tough portion of their regular season schedule.

Losing to one NFC North team in London will just underline the challenges that the Jacksonville Jaguars are going to be facing over the coming weeks with the other three teams from that Division coming up. They also play the Philadelphia Eagles and it will take something special for the Jaguars to go 2-2 across their next four games, never mind putting a winning record on the board in their bid to close on the Houston Texans.

First up is the Green Bay Packers (5-2) who are a part of the NFC North and join the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings with five wins secured. They have won three in a row and Jordan Love is playing like one of the better Quarter Backs in the NFL, although he will be the first to admit that he needs to clean up some of the turnovers that have been down to Love's mistakes.

This looks a very good chance for Jordan Love to have another strong game at Quarter Back and the Green Bay Packers have a team that should be balanced on this side of the ball.

Josh Jacobs has come in to replace and Aaron Jones and the Running Back has shown his qualities, but with an added crease of catching the ball out of the backfield. Behind this Green Bay Offensive Line, Josh Jacobs has been able to rip off some solid gains on the ground and he should be able to keep the Packers in third and manageable spots.

It should lead to spaces to open up in the passing game and Jordan Love will be able to expose this Jaguars team as long as he can avoid the Interceptions that have been too much of a feature of the recent performances. The Jaguars have struggled to stop passer that are a level below the standard that Jordan Love has been able to set and so there is a strong chance the Green Bay Packers can keep this scoreboard ticking over efficiently.

Doug Pederson and the Jacksonville Jaguars will know they will have to call and execute a really strong game plan if they are going to win this one. Trevor Lawrence has flashed his talent at times, but the consistency has been lacking and this Green Bay Defensive unit is still under-rated.

You can run the ball against the Packers and that has to be the Offensive approach- if the Jaguars can do this effectively, they can shorten the game and make sure they are keeping the Packers on the sideline to warm up in the Florida sun. As long as this game is competitive, the Jaguars can lean on the run, but the problem will be if they are having to chase points.

Trevor Lawrence has not lived up to the contract extension numbers, but this is a Quarter Back with plenty of talent. However, challenging this Packers Secondary through the air has been tough for Quarter Backs all season and Lawrence will have to be aware of the ball-hawking nature of the Defensive Backs.

Pressure up front has really helped the Packers and they have helped Jordan Love overcome the turnovers by largely containing the threats against them through the air.

This is likely going to be the case in Week 8 of the regular season and the Green Bay Packers can make it four wins in succession.

Backing a road favourite is not always ideal, but the Green Bay Packers look the stronger team on both sides of the ball and they should be motivated to retain momentum before a big game with the Detroit Lions to be played next week. Returning to the United States after two weeks in London is not an ideal situation for the Jaguars and the NFC North team can underline their talent edge with a win and cover here.

MY PICKS: Miami Dolphins - 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Green Bay Packers - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Washington Commanders + 2.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Denver Broncos - 10.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Week 7: 4-3, + 0.73 Units (7 Units Staked, + 10.43% Yield)
Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Saturday, 19 October 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Adam Azim vs Ohara Davies (Saturday 19th October)

Another fantastic Undisputed fight was produced last week and Artur Beterbiev stands on top of the Light Heavyweight mountain, although Dmitry Bivol is going to want to right that wrong in 2025.

Boxing never seems to be that far from controversy and Bivol fans were certainly pushing the 'robbery' narrative.

Like any term, using it too loosely means you lose the impact of the word and that would certainly be the case if 'robbery' is thrown around every time your favourite fighter loses. It is no surprise that Dmitry Bivol's promoter will feel that way, while the commentating was pretty biased on the night and might have influenced some, but to suggest Dmitry Bivol had won easily seems far from the case.

Cards on the table, I actually scored the fight 116-112 to Artur Beterbiev.

It was close going into the Championship Rounds and in reality that is where the fight was going to be won or lost on my personal scorecard, but Artur Beterbiev seemed to go through the gears and Dmitry Bivol wilted a little bit.

If you think 115-113 is not a bad score, just remember 116-112 means one more Round going in favour of the victor. Those who say they could have seen 115-113 either way or even a draw means they accept there were some swing Rounds and the feeling that Bivol had been 'robbed' seems to be mainly from those in the UK rather than the States and the commentating has to have influenced that.

Boxing scorecards can be poor- in the United Kingdom there have been some shocking scores turned in over recent years, but a Majority Decision in favour of Artur Beterbiev is far from the case. You might have felt Bivol had done enough, which is fair enough, but to completely dismiss the fact that Beterbiev could have one more Round than a 'good' 115-113 scorecard is just mind-boggling.


The fight was a good one and I do think both Boxers will feel they can do better in a rematch, which makes that a natural target for the teams and the promoters. It would not be a surprise if we are to see that in the first half of 2025 and that should allow the contenders the time to line up behind Beterbiev and Bivol.

If reports are correct, David Benavidez and David Morrell are going to face each other in what should be a brilliant fight early in the next year.

And the hope if that Joshua Buatsi and Anthony Yarde can finally meet in what is a monster UK fight, but one that would also have the WBO Interim World Title on the line. The latter is returning this week to shake off the ring rust on a Boxxer run card and that brings the Buatsi fight that much closer to fruition, one that would sell the O2 Arena in London without any issues.

Adam Azim being back in action is also a positive with a big year predicted for the young fighter in 2025 and beyond, while I am looking forward to the return of Tim Tsyzu who is chasing some of the biggest names in the next year.


The main event ended in favour of Artur Beterbiev, but not in the fashion picked on these pages, although it was still a positive night for the Boxing Picks to get the numbers moving back in a positive direction.

With a little over two months left in this calendar year, there is still work to do to secure a profitable year, but it was a positive week and hopefully another one to come.



Adam Azim vs Ohara Davies

The face off with Harlem Eubank was supposed to see Adam Azim return to the ring a couple of months ago, but the contract did not quite make it over the line and instead the step up comes against Ohara Davies.

Big things are expected of Adam Azim and his team are refusing to allow him to be pushed ahead too quickly.

It was the main reason they decided to give up the European Light Welterweight Title rather than face Dalton Smith, although that fight is likely to come sooner than later. We should have Dalton Smith in the Arena for this bout, but Boxxer and Adam Azim will be not be told what to do and the focus is on the career of what looks to be a special talent.

Ultimately the question of how special will be answered as the step up in level is made and he is facing an opponent who has fought previous World Champions.

Ohara Davies was blitzed in the defeat to Ismael Barroso back in January, but his three defeats have been against solid competition. The first was a Stoppage loss to Josh Taylor, the second a Points defeat to Jack Catterall and the most recent was against Barroso, who had Rolly Romero in a lot of trouble before a controversial referee Stoppage.

He is a puncher and will be very familiar with Adam Azim- they are friends outside of the ring, although Davies has taken some offence to being selected as the next fight for the rising star.

It should give him some motivation, but it can be said that Ohara Davies has not really beaten anyone of note for a long time now. The win over Lewis Ritson put him in a position to fight Ismael Barroso, but Adam Azim is far better than Ritson and this is a significant test for Davies to show how much he has left.

You have to wonder if Ohara Davies has lost some of the punch resistance having been hurt so early against Ismael Barroso, especially as Adam Azim is pretty sharp and accurate.

The friendship should not be a major factor in the bout and Adam Azim will be looking to show he is ready to take the next step in his career. He has shown he can move through the gears pretty quickly once in the ring and the price on a first half Stoppage looks worth taking in this one.

The feeling is that Ohara Davies may want to push the pace early to try and rattle the youngster, but that could see him move onto something big and Azim can perhaps beat Josh Taylor's mark to the Stoppage against this opponent.


The undercard features some big names, but it is really an opportunity for the likes of Anthony Yarde and a couple of the female fighters to get active.

The standout looks to be involving other Light Heavyweights not named Anthony Yarde and that is the one featuring Lewis Edmondson and Dan Azeez with the vacant British Title on the line.

We know things can change very quickly in Boxing and it feels a long time ago that Dan Azeez was fighting Joshua Buatsi.

It was a bout that took place in early February, but Azeez came up short and was not at his best when returning in June and perhaps being fortunate to escape with a Draw.

He is facing an unbeaten opponent and they will be familiar with one another having faced off in the amateurs when Lewis Edmondson was able to win a Split Decision against Dan Azeez.

Lewis Edmondson is unbeaten, but he has only been involved in a single fight that has moved past the Sixth Round and this is a considerable step in terms of level.

You know someone like Dan Azeez will look to push the tempo and keep the pressure on and the veteran may have the experience to just break down Lewis Edmondson as this fight moves into the second half of the fight.

All in all, it is suprising to see Dan Azeez as the underdog in this bout and he has to be worth a small interest to come out and pressurise Lewis Edmondson for long enough to break him down. It was Dan Azeez who held this British Light Heavyweight Title before the loss to Joshua Buatsi and he can pick up the Belt again against his unbeaten opponent.


The return of Tim Tszyu is going to be very welcomed, even if he has fallen out of favour with Turki Alalshikh having failed to recover from a gruesome cut in time to take on Vergil Ortiz Jr.

The fact that Tszyu signed up to fight Ortiz Jr after the cut suffered against Sebastian Fundora tells me everything about the character of the Australian, a very likeable fighter.

Even taking on Fundora on short notice should be given a lot of respect and Tim Tsyzu could have easily asked the referee to stop the fight after suffering a cut that bled profusely almost immediately. Instead, the Champion decided to do all he can to avoid losing his unbeaten record and he deserves the chance to bring a World Title back Down Under.

It is the IBF World Title on the line and the hope is that Tim Tsyzu can get back to winning ways before targeting big names in a loaded Light Middleweight Division. Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr have joined the Division, while the rematch with Sebastian Fundora will be something that Tsyzu will target.

However, it is very important to not overlook the current IBF Champion, even if Bakhram Murtazaliev has perhaps not fought anyone of this level before. He is unbeaten and anyone who has watched him fight should be aware of the potential of the Champion.

Sixteen Stoppages in twenty-two wins has to be respected and there is every chance that this is going to be fan-friendly contest.

It may end up being a battle of wills and the bout should be highly competitive, although the edge has to be with Tim Tsyzu who may be slightly better at the same things that Bakhram Murtazaliev will want to do. The toughness of both cannot be underestimated and so a small interest in the former World Champion winning this one in a competitive Decision looks the call.

MY PICKS: Adam Azim to Win Between 1-6 @ 2.87 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Dan Azeez @ 2.30 Bet Fred (1 Unit)
Tim Tsyzu to Win By Decision/Technical Decision @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 30-50, + 12.44 Units (106 Units Staked, + 11.74% Yield)

Friday, 18 October 2024

College Football Week 8 Picks 2024 (Saturday 19th October)

We may have moved beyond the need to see unbeaten teams, or even those with a single loss, playing in the College Football Playoffs, especially with the expanded post-season in place.

However, losing twice in the regular season will make your case to join a twelve team Playoff that much harder to make and so there is a big week coming up for some of the leading SEC teams.

Texas are hosting Georgia and Tennessee are hosting Alabama in big games, while the Big Ten has seen some of their top teams move above those from the SEC.

It is still October though and that means there are plenty more twists and turns to come with big games in the ACC as well as the SEC in Week 8.


Two winning weeks in a row is a positive for the College Football Picks, but the early selections were disappointing and so there is work to do to really get this season turned around. Week 7 was a good start and building on that is the key over the next few weeks, beginning with the selections from Week 8 that can be read below.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish @ Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets Pick: The problem remains for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (5-1) that being an Independent means the lack of a Championship Game can go against them. In previous years, the margin for error was much tighter for the Fighting Irish, but even an expanded College Football Playoff needs work for Notre Dame to enter and especially after a really disappointing defeat that is already on the slate.

With that in mind, they cannot afford another as the Fighting Irish prepare to travel to Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets (5-2) who are just 3-2 in ACC Conference play. The chances of playing in the Conference Championship Game diminished after losses to Syracuse Orange and Louisville Cardinals, but the Yellow Jackets have won two in a row since that latest defeat and will be plenty motivated to keep the positives moving forward.

This may not be an official home game for the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets, but will be played very close to the campus. Despite that, the Fighting Irish will have plenty of fans ready to support them as Head Coach Marcus Freeman looks for the team to turn good performances into great ones.

Having a dual-threat at Quarter Back should help the Fighting Irish establish the run and the power of this Offensive Line is likely going to make a big difference. In recent games, as the Georgia Tech Defensive Line have played a stronger level of competition, the Yellow Jackets have just found it that much tougher to clamp down on the run.

However, they have played well enough to force Riley Leonard to have to make some plays with his arm if the Notre Dame Offensive unit are going to keep things ticking over in this game. The likelihood is that Leonard will have enough time to expose some of the holes that Georgia Tech have in the Secondary and that should put Notre Dame in a position to keep the scoreboard ticking over.

It is clear that the battle at the Line of Scrimmage will be important on both sides of the ball and that is very much the case when the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have the ball. Running the ball effectively has always been a part of what the Yellow Jackets want to do and they have been strong at establishing the run, but this week they are coming up against the Notre Dame Defensive Line that has proven to be highly effective at stopping the run.

This will be much tougher for Georgia Tech if they have to go with a backup at Quarter Back- Haynes King is a doubt having been forced out of the game late on last time out, and without him, the Yellow Jackets will have a tough time throwing the ball.

Notre Dame could double down on stopping the run and they do have a pass rush that could prove to be effective if they can put the Yellow Jackets into third and long spots. That rush has certainly helped the Secondary make some big plays and this feels like a game in which the Fighting Irish can produce the kind of statement win that could impress when the College Football Playoff members are revealed.

The early loss has certainly made it harder to trust the Fighting Irish, but recent form has been stronger and they can control the Line of Scrimmage for long enough to secure a win by around two Touchdowns.


Alabama Crimson Tide @ Tennessee Volunteers Pick: The topsy-turvy game against the Georgia Bulldogs ended with an important win for the Alabama Crimson Tide (5-1), but they have not built on that victory over one of their main SEC rivals in the manner they would have expected.

Following the victory, Alabama were upset by Vanderbilt Commodores and they were fortunate to avoid being dragged into Overtime in a narrow win over the South Carolina Gamecocks in Week 7.

Those who believed the team would just continue the successes of the Nick Saban era without Nick Saban may just be questioning what can be achieved this season.

The narrative can change very quickly in College Football and a road win over the Tennessee Volunteers (5-1) would certainly have people taking notice of the Crimson Tide in a much more positive light.

Much like Alabama, Tennessee opened the season in strong form before an upset loss to Arkansas Razorbacks and then producing an Overtime win over Florida Gators last time out. That leaves both teams at 2-1 within the SEC and it will be a tough road back towards the College Football Playoff for the team that loses.

It certainly increases the pressure on both teams ahead of a big SEC game in Week 8.

One of the big issues for the Tennessee Volunteers has been the Offensive shortcomings in recent games and this is going to be a tough test for them, even if Alabama have not been playing to the level that they have set in recent years. For starters, the Volunteers Offensive Line will struggle to open the running lanes agains this Alabama Defensive Line and that will put some additional pressure on Nick Iamaleava.

The freshman Quarter Back has just hit a slight wall in recent games, but he will be facing a Crimson Tide Secondary that has struggled when moving into the SEC games. Nick Iamaleava might not have a lot of time to allow plays to develop though and that will be key for the Alabama Crimson Tide to finally begin to show their talent even at the SEC level.

Defensive breakdowns have certainly been a factor in seeing Alabama struggle in recent games, but the Offensive unit have something to prove too.

One of the big disappointments in recent outings is the play of the Offensive Line as Alabama have been contained to 4 yards per carry in SEC games. Expecting to get back on track against this Tennessee Defensive Line looks to be asking too much of the Alabama Crimson Tide and that will put additional pressure on Jalen Milroe, even if the Quarter Back is much more experienced than the one that Tennessee will be using in this big Week 8 game.

Jalen Milroe has to be confident in helping the Crimson Tide move the ball through the air, although he will have to be aware of the pass rush pressure that Tennessee will generate. In recent games the Volunteers Secondary has given up a fair few yards, while they have also lost Linebacker Keenan Pili, and that should give Jalen Milroe an opportunity to have another strong game at Quarter Back.

Being a bit more careful with the ball is going to be important in what could be a tight, competitive game, and Milroe will need to clean up this side of this game. He has thrown 4 Interceptions in the last three games, including two last week against the South Carolina Gamecocks, and there is little doubt that Tennessee will be targeting the turnovers in this one.

There are some real similarities with the way things have gone for both the Tennessee Volunteers and Alabama Crimson Tide over the last month. Both teams have already been beaten in the SEC so it is a tough path for the losing team to tread, which will only add to the tension on the day.

Ultimately it feels like the experience of Jalen Milroe may just help Alabama edge out Tennessee and Nick Iamaleava and Alabama's Defensive unit may also be motivated to want to prove something. Nothing will come easy, but the Crimson Tide can edge past the Volunteers and cover this spread on the way to moving to 3-1 within the Conference.


Georgia Bulldogs @ Texas Longhorns Pick: It might be the first season that they are a member of the SEC, but the Texas Longhorns (6-0) have looked the best team in the Conference through seven weeks. Playing in this Conference will always give teams the opportunity to prove how good they are and there are some big games coming up for the Longhorns after crushing the Oklahoma Sooners in Week 7.

The Sooners might have joined Texas in moving from the Big 12 to the SEC, but the Longhorns have the much stronger squad so the blowout was not a massive surprise.

In Week 8, the test feels that much more significant against the Georgia Bulldogs (5-1) who have bounced back from the close loss to the Alabama Crimson Tide to win two games in a row. That has improved the record to 3-1 within the Conference and a win over the Texas Longhorns would make Georgia one of the favourites to play in the SEC Championship Game, but there is pressure on a team that will be targeting the National Championship.

Losing would put the Georgia Bulldogs in a tough position with plenty of SEC games still to play, even if the College Football Playoff has been expanded to include twelve teams in 2024. They still have the kind of talent that will appeal, but losing three games in the regular season would make it very difficult to be included in the College Football Playoff so this is a huge game for Georgia.

There is no doubt that the Bulldogs have plenty of talent and are capable of winning anywhere they play in College Football, but this Offensive unit has to also accept that they are in for a huge test of their credentials. Some will feel that the Bulldogs have not been looking to give too much away in their wins over Auburn and Mississippi State, but it is also hard to ignore the issues the Offensive Line have had in trying to open running lanes.

Doing so against the Texas Defensive Line feels like it will be that much more challenging and that will likely mean Georgia need to lean on Quarter Back Carson Beck much like they have in recent games. The numbers produced by Beck have been impressive statistically, but having to force throws has led to multiple Interceptions and that is not going to cut it against this Texas team.

Even playing a clean game does not guarantee anything for Carson Beck and the Georgia Bulldogs- any third and long spot will see the Longhorns fire up the pass rush, which can stall drives, while the Texas Secondary have not given up a lot of yards even when teams have been forced to throw to keep up on the scoreboard.

The experience of Carson Beck will help the Bulldogs and the same can be said for Texas who have Quinn Ewers back behind Center.

In recent years, the Bulldogs have really had high-calibre Defensive units and those have provided plenty of talent for the NFL. However, the Bulldogs will be well aware they need to be better than what they have shown in 2024 if they are going to find a way to slow down the impressive Longhorns Offense.

The Longhorns will want to run the ball and that will open up the playbook- they will be expecting some resistance from the Bulldogs, but there have been plenty of signs in recent games that it is possible to establish the run.

This will be music to the ears of Quinn Ewers and the Quarter Back could have another really big day as he continues to show why he is likely to be a very high Draft choice when that Day comes around next year. He has been extremely well protected, and Georgia have not really been finding a way to get home on the Quarter Back of late, and that should mean Quinn Ewers has the time to really exploit this Georgia Secondary.

Teams have been able to put up some big yards against the Georgia Bulldogs and the Longhorns certainly have the talent to pick up where others have left off.

It is a big game and the pressure on the day will have an impact, but Texas should be able to use the home crowd to settle down that much more quickly.

A healthy respect for the Georgia Bulldogs and all they have achieved in recent years has to be given, but the Texas Longhorns want to become the next elite College team. Quinn Ewers and the edge on the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball should just swing this pendulum in favour of the hosts and Texas may produce their most impressive victory in 2024.


Iowa Hawkeyes @ Michigan State Spartans Pick: College Football's landscape has changed and there are going to be further changes made in the coming years, but the one big Conference approach is perhaps not as appealing as the Divisions within Conferences that we have been accustomed to seeing.

Some teams feel it will have given them a better chance of making the College Football Playoff when the twelve teams are picked later in the year, but for others the pathway feels more difficult.

The Iowa Hawkeyes (4-2) are a team that may not benefit having played in two of the last three Big Ten Championship Games, especially when you think that three of the current top four in the College Football Rankings are playing in the Conference. The Hawkeyes are one of six teams with a 2-1 record within the Big Ten, but they are all chasing three teams with perfect 3-0 records and so another loss cannot really be taken right now.

They travel to the Michigan State Spartans (3-3) who are coming in off a Bye Week and will have tried to make adjustments having lost three in a row. Two of those were to top Big Ten teams in Oregon and Ohio State so Michigan State may believe that they are set to face an 'easier' run, although they have lost twice in a row to the Hawkeyes.

Avoiding distraction will be challenging for the team and the fans with the Michigan Wolverines on deck, while the Spartans have perhaps been a touch predictable in their play-calling over the three game losing run.

It doesn't help that the Spartans Offensive Line have struggled to open the running lanes and they are not expected to have a lot of success on the ground in this one. Being in third and long spots is tough work for the best of Offenses and it has certainly put the pressure on Aidan Chiles at Quarter Back.

His numbers haven't been all too bad in terms of passing yards put together, but Chiles has perhaps had to push the boat out at times and that has led to far too many Interceptions. The Quarter Back will have some spaces to exploit in this Iowa Secondary, but Aidan Chiles is going to have to avoid the pass rush pressure that the Hawkeyes bring, while also should be noting the turnovers that they have created.

This may mean it will be a tough day for the Spartans when they have the ball in hand, while they will be hoping that the Bye Week has given them a chance to work out how to be more competitive at the Line of Scrimmage on the other side of the ball. Earlier in the season, the Spartans Defensive Line were pretty good against the run, but that has not been the case as the competition has ramped up and stopping this Iowa Offensive Line will be tough.

We all know what the Hawkeyes will want to do with the run, but the Hawkeyes Offensive Line have proven to be big enough and strong enough to push open some big running lanes. Kaleb Johnson is likely going to have another strong game at Running Back and just keep the pressure away from Quarter Back Cade McNamara, a former Michigan Wolverine who will be hearing the boos every time he snaps the ball.

He has not needed to make big plays in recent games, but Cade McNamara should have success when he is asked to make plays against this Michigan State Secondary. The Offensive Line will give McNamara time and he has been careful enough with the ball to ensure the Iowa Hawkeyes can control the field position and it may lead to another solid win over the Spartans.

Like many teams, Iowa struggled Offensively against the Ohio State Buckeyes, but they have been better when playing teams below that elite level. That is certainly the case in Week 8 of the regular season and the Hawkeyes may win the turnover battle to move into a position to cover this tough spread for any road team to surpass.

Road favourites can find it tough in College Football, but the Hawkeyes do look capable, especially if the Michigan State Spartans are looking ahead to the big rivalry game with the Michigan Wolverines. The turnovers could be key and Iowa may just do enough to secure a win by a Touchdown mark at the least.

MY PICKS: Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 13.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Alabama Crimson Tide - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Texas Longhorns - 4.5 Points @ 1.85 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Iowa Hawkeyes - 5.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Indiana Hoosiers - 6.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Iowa State Cyclones - 13.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 7: 6-3, + 2.55 Units (9 Units Staked, + 28.33% Yield)
Week 6: 3-2, + 0.82 Units (5 Units Staked, + 16.4% Yield)
Week 5: 0-5, - 5 Units (5 Units Staked, - 100% Yield)
Week 4: 3-2, + 0.73 Units (5 Units Staked, + 14.60% Yield)
Week 3: 3-5, - 2.35 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.38% Yield)
Week 2: 2-4, - 2.26 Units (6 Units Staked, - 37.67% Yield)
Week 1: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)

Thursday, 17 October 2024

NFL Week 7 Picks 2024 (Thursday 17th October-Monday 21st October)

Another NFL week is in the books and the NFC North continues to impress with each of the four teams now two games above 0.500.

Can all four teams really make the Playoffs later this year? It still looks incredibly unlikely when you think that there have been a lack of Divisional games played between the four teams and that naturally will begin to thin out the chances of all making history and reaching the post-season.

This weekend there is a big game between the Detroit Lions and Minnesota Vikings which begins that process, but all four NFC North teams have to be very happy with the form shown.

Three are most likely going to make the post-season and you would still lean towards the Lions, Vikings and Green Bay Packers being those three teams rather than the Chicago Bears. Beating up on bad teams has pushed the Bears to 4-2, but they have to face all three Divisional rivals and that is when we will learn a lot more about Caleb Williams and the whole Chicago team.

The Bears enjoy a Bye Week, as do the Dallas Cowboys after the capitulation against the aforementioned Lions in Week 6.

Jerry Jones was not happy that journalists are even questioning where the Cowboys are heading, but there will be questions when continuing to be dominated at home. At least they are playing in a Division where they are far from out of things at 3-3, especially if Dallas can use the Bye Week to get healthier.


The trade deadline is now fast approaching and some of the pieces are beginning to be moved on the board.

Dsvante Adams has gotten his wish to not only be traded from the Las Vegas Raiders, but to join old friend Aaron Rodgers at the New York Jets. He has been missing with a hamstring issue in recent games for the Raiders, but unsurprisingly is expected to suit up on Sunday as the Jets look to get their season turned back around.

Soon after the news broke, the Jets main AFC East rivals, the Buffalo Bills traded for Amari Cooper and that could be a huge boost for Josh Allen and the passing game.

Moves will be made in the coming days and we are already beginning to see a separation of those who believe they can contend, and those that may already be thinking about 2025.


Another week of NFL Picks have returned with a positive number and that makes this a strong start to the season.

There is still too much of a road to run to get carried away, but the selections have been managed well and Week 7 will hopefully keep the positive momentum going.

It is the last weekend of London hosting a game, although that looks a poor game on paper, while there are some big games to be played throughout Week 7 and that can only be good news for fans of the League.

Putting some winners down alongside those big games will just be the icing on the cake.

Denver Broncos @ New Orleans Saints Pick: This is a non-Conference game, but there is little doubt that the New Orleans Saints (2-4) hosting the Denver Broncos (3-3) was picked for Thursday Night Football in Week 7 for one reason.

The return of Sean Payton.

Despite leading the New Orleans Saints to their sole Super Bowl win and turning around a franchise that had been more associated with losing, Sean Payton's departure in 2022 has not been received very well inside the building by those in management nor in the stands. Some have even indicated that the ceremony to mark Drew Brees' time as Quarter Back of the Saints should not have been held on this night, even though it was the Head Coach-Quarter Back partnership that proved so successful for the Saints.

Sean Payton is not concerning himself too much about the reception he is likely to face having seen his Denver Broncos team lose last time out to snap a three game winning run. There is still work to do in order to get Denver back onto a path of consistent winning, and that is the focus for Payton.

The storyline about the return might have been huge if New Orleans had been able to sustain the form they showed in recording back to back blowouts to open the season at 2-0. Injuries have piled up since then and the Saints were just embarrassed by Divisional rivals Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 6 as they fell to a fourth consecutive defeat.

Spencer Rattler made the start at Quarter Back and had some ups and downs, but that was to be expected. The Saints will need Derek Carr back quickly and Head Coach Dennis Allen has to be fearing for his long-term prospects without his starting Quarter Back, especially if the team do not show a lot more effort than they did against the Buccaneers.

At least they are not facing an Offensive powerhouse on Thursday Night Football with Denver still learning how to get the best out of their own rookie Quarter Back, Bo Nix.

There were some positives from Bo Nix during the three game winning run- he did not throw an Interception in that time- but the Broncos know that you need more from the Quarter Back position in the modern era. That does not mean you want to put a rookie in a tough spot, but the defeat to the Los Angeles Chargers to fall back to 0.500 underlined the point about needing more when the chips are down.

On Thursday night, Denver may actually have more success Offensively than they have for much of the season and that is very much down to the injuries the Saints have on this side of the ball. Motivation will be found by wanting to shut down their former Head Coach who is known for his Offensive mind, but the Saints Defensive Line will have to be a lot better than what they have shown during this losing run.

Limited pass rush pressure has been produced and this Broncos Offensive Line have kept Bo Nix pretty well protected, while Denver have to believe they will be able to effectively establish the run. Stopping the run has been a season-long problem for the Saints, but it has really been highlighted when they have not been playing with a big lead and the Denver Broncos have to believe they can keep Bo Nix in favourable field positions.

Bo Nix has yet to really have the passing numbers that the likes of Caleb Williams and Jayden Daniels have produced, but he should be in a good position to keep the chains moving. This Saints Secondary have struggled to make plays with little pass rush pressure on the opponent Quarter Back and even Nix should be able to exploit the holes that have opened up.

This can only be a positive for the Denver Broncos who can then turn the game over to the Defensive unit that has powered the 3-3 record.

It all starts up front for the Broncos and the Defensive Line have proved themselves to be pretty stout against the run. That may have been tested if this was Week 2, but the Broncos have to be a big favourite at the Line of Scrimmage considering the injuries that have slowed down the New Orleans run blocking capablities.

Even Alvin Kamara has been banged up and the Saints are struggling to get in front of the chains, something that may be even more difficult with Spencer Rattler at Quarter Back rather than Derek Carr. There is a feeling that the Broncos won't need to load the box to contain the run anyway, but the option may be there if they don't believe Rattler can do enough to keep them honest through the air.

One positive for Spencer Rattler is that Patrick Surtain II is unlikely to suit up, although the Quarter Back will need his Offensive Line to give him time to hit the Receivers down the field if he is stuck in third and long spots. That time is unlikely considering the pressure that the Denver Broncos have gotten up front and it could lead to further Interceptions thrown by a rookie that is perhaps not ready for this stage.

Again, it should be noted that the New Orleans Saints could be playing with a lot more energy and motivation against their former Head Coach. The fans will certainly be a little more pumped, despite the four losses in a row, but all of that may not be enough to get the better of Sean Payton, who will have plenty of motivation of his own.

His Defensive unit can step up and make the big plays to give the Broncos the edge and even the Denver Offense may be able to do more than usual against an injury hit opponent.

Being set as the road favourite is not something the Denver Broncos have been used to in recent times, but they do look to have a real advantage at the Line of Scrimmage on both sides of the ball and that should put the AFC West representatives in a position to win and cover.


Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots Pick: The last of the three games to be played in London takes place in Week 7 of the 2024 season and this does look the weakest of the three that were sent over the pond.

The Jacksonville Jaguars (1-5) have been a regular feature of the London games and they have stayed for consecutive games after being crushed by the Chicago Bears in Week 6. It was a really poor outing and Head Coach Doug Pederson is under real pressure with changes potentially being made before the team heads back to the United States.

After the stunning capitulation at the end of the 2023 season, the Jaguars could not have asked for a worse start this time around and they are already firmly behind the black ball. You don't spend the money they did on extending Trevor Lawrence's contract at Quarter Back without expecting Playoff runs every season, but Jacksonville will need to produce something special over their remaining eleven games to move back into contention.

Things are bad for Jacksonville, but the same can be said for the team in transition that will play as the 'visiting team' at Wembley Stadium. The New England Patriots (1-5) have lost five in a row since their upset win over the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 1 and they have now moved into the Drake Maye era with the rookie taking over at Quarter Back from veteran Jacoby Brissett.

Managing the game had been the job specification for Brissett and he was largely capable of looking after the ball, but Drake Maye showed he has the higher upside in the crushing loss to the Houston Texans.

Yes, he threw two Interceptions, but Maye had over 240 passing yards and three Touchdown passes too.

One of the main reasons Drake Maye had not been installed into the starting lineup immediately was less to do with high expectations at New England and almost everything to do with the Patriots Offensive Line. They looked like a unit that may not offer a lot of protection for the Quarter Back and that is exactly how things have worked out so the hope was that the Patriots would not have to leave Maye in a position to be beaten up in the NFL.

He will be under duress in this game when New England are in obvious passing situations, but the Jacksonville Jaguars have struggled in most other aspects on this side of the ball. For all of their protection struggles, the Patriots have been able to establish the run and they should have success doing that against the Jaguars, and that should give Drake Maye an opportunity to attack this Secondary.

This might not be the deepest New England Receiving corps, but they will be able to make some plays for their rookie Quarter Back. It also helps that Drake Maye is able to move the ball with his legs and the Patriots should be able to score points in this one, even if they are on a relatively long travelling path in Week 7.

It might be the one factor that can help the Jacksonville Jaguars slow things down having been gashed by the Chicago Bears last week and looking like a team that is struggling for confidence.

The same can be said on the other side of the ball and Jacksonville were punished for far too many drops in the defeat to the Bears. However, they were having some success until the game got out of hand and this is a team that should be able to have one of their stronger outings against this Patriots Defense.

Running the ball should not be a problem with Tank Bigsby getting the majority of carries in place of the injured Travis Etienne- the Jaguars Offensive Line have been pretty effective at moving the ball on the ground and Bigsby has shown he can hit the holes as they develop in front of him, which can only be good news for Trevor Lawrence.

The Quarter Back has a number of solid Receiving options, well solid if they are not dropping passes that hit them in the chest plate. Gabe Davis might have had two Touchdown catches last week, but could have doubled that with stronger hands and this is another game in which the Jaguars should be able to move the ball through the air as well as the ground.

Trevor Lawrence should have time in the pocket, but the key for the Quarter Back is to avoid the turnovers that this New England team have been picking up to remain competitive. If he can do that, the Jaguars might just alleviate some of the immediate pressure on their Head Coach by securing a solid win in London in the second game the Jaguars have played in the UK Capital this month.

You cannot say it is easy to trust the Jaguars as a big favourite considering the really poor numbers being put together Defensively, but New England have struggled to remain competitive within games. Drake Maye has offered a spark, but travelling to London will be tough, especially when facing an opponent that should be well adjusted to the time zone having spent over a week on that side of the Atlantic.

The favourite has won both games played in London this season and Jacksonville are likely to win the turnover battle in this one, which should see them have enough to cover too. As bad as things have been for Jacksonville, the Patriots have arguably had it worse and the Jaguars may be able to score enough points to just keep New England at arm's length.


Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: Would you stand in front of a buzzsaw willingly? The answer almost certainly going to be 'no', but the Baltimore Ravens (4-2) may struggle to cover this spread on the road, even if they have won four in a row and ground down all in front of them in that run.

They will be looking to do the same against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4-2) who bounced back from a disappointing loss to the Atlanta Falcons to beat another Divisional rival in Week 7.

With Derrick Henry behind Lamar Jackson, it is no surprise that an already effective Ravens rushing Offense is pounding out the yards on the ground and stopping Baltimore from doing what they want to do has proven too tough for most. That is not expected to be much different when they face this Buccaneers Defensive Line and both players should keep things ticking along on the ground and ensuring Baltimore are playing in front of the chains.

Doing so has really made things very comfortable for Lamar Jackson when has chosen to throw the ball and the numbers make good reading during this winning run. Running the ball, or the threat of this powerful running game, will just cool down any pass rush pressure teams are willing to invest in as they try and rattle Jackson, and that should also mean the Quarter Back has time to dissect this Tampa Bay Secondary.

The reality is that Lamar Jackson has proven himself to be a very good starter in the regular season and he is really going to be judged in January when the pressure ramps up. He has looked after the ball when he has chosen to throw and the Ravens should be able to have their own way on this side of the ball.

So why go against them?

As good as Baltimore have been Offensively, the Defensive unit are still growing and there is no doubt that the Buccaneers have a team that can score enough points to keep this one competitive.

One concern when Tom Brady left was that Tampa Bay would struggle to find a Quarter Back to take the reins, but Baker Mayfield has more than stepped up. Some salty comments aside, Mayfield has impressed with his maturity and the Tampa Bay Offensive unit have been playing with plenty of rhythm.

He is surrounded by some talented playmakers, although it is Bucky Irving stepping up to complement the running game that will give Tampa Bay the balance to keep on the scoreboard. It is not easy to run the ball against this Ravens Defensive Line, but Tampa Bay's Offensive Line have been opening up some big holes up front and they just need to keep that threat alive to help Baker Mayfield.

The main problem for the Ravens is that they have not been able to stop the pass so the likes of Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should be able to have big games to support their Quarter Back. The likes of Irving and Rachaad White can contribute by leaking out of the backfield and the struggles of the Baltimore Secondary should give the Tampa Bay Buccaneers every chance of a backdoor cover at the very least.

It is never ideal going up against a team playing with the momentum Baltimore have, but Tampa Bay are not exactly struggling for wins.

Lamar Jackson's record against the NFC is another concern, but there is a way the Ravens can win without covering and taking the points looks the call considering how well the Tampa Bay Offensive unit should match up with the Baltimore Secondary here.


Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals Pick: The Monday Night Football double-header looks like it might be a regular feature of the schedule in the coming years and we have yet another one of those in Week 7 of the 2024 season.

The second of those games will be played between teams that play in the West Division of their respective Conferences and the Arizona Cardinals (2-4) will be looking to bounce back from a heavy loss and get back on track.

It was a winning effort from the Los Angeles Chargers (3-2) who will have been glad to hear that Head Coach Jim Harbaugh has not had a serious issue come up after being forced to go to the medical tent in the win over Denver. He will have wear a heart monitor, but Harbaugh should be capable of performing his duties to the full as he continues to lead the Chargers.

Time will be needed for the Chargers to really get up to the level of the Kansas City Chiefs, but there have been positives for a team that finished 5-12 in 2023 and who were not entirely sure how healthy Justin Herbert would be at Quarter Back.

A work in progress will have some ups and downs, but this looks a good chance for the Chargers Offensive unit to put together a solid game. In recent outings, they have struggled to establish the run as well as they would have liked, but playing Pittsburgh, Kansas City and Denver is one thing with the Defensive units they can run out onto the field, and this is not nearly as challenging a Defensive Line.

That should help the Chargers who know that Jim Harbaugh wants to run the ball effectively first and foremost and they should be able to have some success on the ground in this one, which in turn should aid Justin Herbert.

Some key Receivers have moved on and that has perhaps contributed to some of the issues Justin Herbert has had when he steps back to throw the ball. Again, this is not exactly a daunting Secondary to attack and so there is a feeling that Herbert can have a game more in line with the kind of numbers he has been able to put together early in his career.

The Offensive Line have struggled in pass protection as much as run blocking in recent games, but the Chargers should offer more time for Justin Herbert if they can rip off some big gains on the ground. Even if behind the chains, Herbert should be able to avoid the pressure that has been around him in recent games because of the largely ineffective Arizona pass rush generated.

After beating San Francisco in the fashion they did, the Cardinals will be disappointed with their efforts in Week 6 and have to show they have made use of the slightly longer preparation time between games. Kyler Murray has been inconsistent as a thrower, but the Quarter Back should find some room to move the ball on the ground.

Handing the ball to James Connor should be effective too and the Los Angeles Chargers Defensive Line have had a couple of issues containing the run in recent games. The Line of Scrimmage, and dominating there, is always important for Jim Harbaugh, but his Chargers team may have a couple of issues with the run-option that Arizona can scheme together.

If they can move the ball as anticipated, Kyler Murray should be able to have a bit more success throwing the ball than he has had for much of the season. Positive news is that Marvin Harrison Jr is set to be cleared and the Cardinals may just have the playmakers to move into a position to win this game.

The Cardinals are not so easy to trust, especially with the way things have gone for them over the last couple of years, but they may be the team with a bit more consistency Offensively. Turnovers could be important to the outcome of this one, which are always hard to predict, but the feeling is that the Cardinals can find a way to get the better of a team that had a very hard fought win over a Divisional rival in Week 6.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Jacksonville Jaguars - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
Cleveland Browns + 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
Philadelphia Eagles - 3 Points @ 1.86 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Miami Dolphins + 3.5 Points @ 1.72 Bet Victor (1 Unit)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Arizona Cardinals @ 2.10 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

Week 6: 4-2, + 1.67 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.83% Yield)
Week 5: 4-2, + 1.64 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27.33% Yield)
Week 4: 6-2, + 3.45 Units (8 Units Staked, + 43.13% Yield)
Week 3: 3-3, - 0.23 Units (6 Units Staked, - 3.83% Yield)
Week 2: 4-2, + 1.62 Units (6 Units Staked, + 27% Yield)
Week 1: 5-2, + 2.67 Units (7 Units Staked, + 38.14% Yield)

Saturday, 12 October 2024

Boxing Picks 2024- Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol (Saturday 12th October)

Three weeks have passed since the stunning end to the last Riyadh Season card.

The event at Wembley Stadium was almost certainly not attended by the reported number (reported by the promoters), but it was a massive event all the same. The conclusion with Daniel Dubois announcing himself as a genuine World Champion after a crushing win over Anthony Joshua has kept the Heavyweight Division right in the spotlight as most continue to sit back and wait for the big December card headlined by the rematch between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk.

It is likely to be a card filled with a number of Heavyweight contests with the rumours of a Martin Bakole vs Zhilei Zhang contest looking to be the standout as the chief support (since writing this, the actual undercard was released for the Fury-Usyk rematch and it is underwhelming to say the least).

However, before we get to all that, arguably the very best fight of 2024 is set to take place this weekend when Artur Beterbiev takes on Dmitry Bivol with all four Light Heavyweight Titles on the line.


Make no mistake, this is an absolute elite level fight and the winner is going to be amongst the conversation of being the greatest of all time in the Division.

It is a fight that has long been one that the fans have demanded and the fact it is for Undisputed makes it all the grander.

Will it capture the imagination of the casuals? Perhaps not, but being on a Riyadh Season card means there is a decent undercard attached, especially for British viewers, and Beterbiev-Bivol is going to be one that proper Boxing fans will love.

Fabio Wardley vs Frazer Clarke II should have perhaps taken place back in the United Kingdom, but the money they are likely going to be getting to be the chief support in Riyadh cannot be dismissed.

Chris Eubank Jr is back to shake off the ring rust before moving into big fights in 2025, while Ben Whittaker will be continuing his development with another step upwards and Jai Opetaia is also looking to stay active before beginning to Unify the Cruiserweight Division.

And all of this suggests Boxxer and Ben Shalom are now firmly in with the Saudi authorities having felt rivals Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren were perhaps trying to keep him looking in from the outside.


A slight positive number was returned after the last Riyadh Season card, but it could have been much better.

Hamzah Sheeraz really impressed and is almost certainly going to be heading into a World Title shot next, but the upset of Mark Chamberlain would have disappointed him, his promoter and Turki Alalshikh.

Overall it has been a decent year, but there is still plenty of work to do over the final quarter of the calendar year to produce a profit from the Picks.



Artur Beterbiev vs Dmitry Bivol

He won his IBF World Title in November 2017 and Artur Beterbiev made a number of defences before beating Oleksandr Gvozdyk in October 2019 to add the WBC Title to his collection and then Joe Smith Jr in June 2022 to pick up the WBO Title.

Inactivity has been down to injury and that has restricted Beterbiev to a single fight in 2022 and 2023, although he is set to head out for a second time in 2024 having crushed Callum Smith in January.

He is now unbeaten in twenty, while Dmitry Bivol is unbeaten in twenty-three and won his WBA World Title in November 2017.

Like his compatriot, Dmitry Bivol has made a number of successful defences of his World Title, but it has been typical of Boxing that we have not been in a position for these two to have met much earlier than October 2024.

If it wasn't for injury, this fight would have already have taken place back in June, but Artur Beterbiev needed time to get over meniscus surgery and that has perhaps contributed to Dmitry Bivol hardening as favourite after the original date had seen both fighters in a 'pick 'em' spot.

Dmitry Bivol does have that win over Canelo Alvarez too, which some will perhaps rate as the best either fighter has produced. Both have victories over Joe Smith Jr, but the best win that either has put together has to be Artur Beterbiev's crushing success over Oleksandr Gvozdyk in 2019.

None of that matters now with both fighters extremely confident in their chances of cementing their name in Boxing history.

You have to be worried about Beterbiev's latest injury- he is 39 years old and in recent years the biggest challenge has not been his opponents, but the body breaking down on him.

Some have suggested the relatively short postponement from June to October may not be enough time for Artur Beterbiev to get past a ruptured meniscus and there has to be a worry about that. We have seen how tough it can be for athletes of a certain age to overcome injury problems and it is something to keep in mind ahead of this massive fight.

There is so much to like about Artur Beterbiev on his pure ability in the ring.

His perfect Knock Out record may paint a picture of a pure banger, but Beterbiev is not really someone who will produce a 'one hitter quitter' and instead uses smart Boxing to get into range where he can begin to break down an opponent. There is no loading up on the punches, but timing and execution is spot on and that means every punch Beterbiev throws looks and feels hurtful.

The crushing win over Joe Smith Jr in Two Rounds stands out in recent outings, but the American came to fight fire with fire and ultimately he was not able to stand up to the power the Unified Champion brings. However, five of the last six wins produced by Artur Beterbiev have been in the second half of the contest, which backs up the fact that this is a far better Boxer than some think and someone who is patient and willing to break his opponent down without rushing the work.

Dmitry Bivol is going to be well aware of his compatriot's strengths, but he should have plenty of faith in his own Boxing ability to counter Beterbiev.

However, you do have to believe that Bivol is going to need to show enough punch power to earn the respect of Artur Beterbiev if he is going to head back to Russia with all of the Light Heavyweight Belts in his possession.

Prior to his win over replacement Malik Zinad, an overmatched opponent, Dmitry Bivol had not stopped anyone since 2018 and that natural willingness to coast towards a decision is perhaps telling us something. While we have not seen him hurt that often, you do have to wonder if Dmitry Bivol is perhaps not as sure about his ability to take a big shot as he would like to be and being unwilling to really push for a Stoppage when way clear on the cards is with that reasoning in mind.

He has shown plenty of durability and conditioning, but being hit by Artur Beterbiev will feel different compared with anyone else that Dmitry Bivol will have faced.

Can he box well enough to keep Beterbiev from getting his work done?

This is the key question and one that ultimately that Dmitry Bivol may struggle to pass.

Father Time is one opponent that every Boxer will eventually fail to beat and that is the secondary concern with Artur Beterbiev, as well as the injury issues he has had in recent years.

However, it is hard to look past Beterbiev until we see that happen and his footwork and boxing IQ is underrated and that could put him in a strong position to hurt Dmitry Bivol. As one of the better finishers out there, Beterbiev is unlikely to rush his work and instead will continue to break down the man in front of him and my feeling for some time has been that the older of the two Russian men will have too much when this fight eventually happens.

A year ago the confidence would have been higher of course, but in what should be a great event, Artur Beterbiev may come through with yet another opponent wilting in front of him and the pressure the three Belt holder brings to the ring.


In something of a surprise, the undercard for this event features plenty of talent associated with Boxxer rather than solely Matchroom and Queensberry.

While there has been clear statements that no one was being 'blacklisted' when it came to the events in Saudi, most fans felt Eddie Hearn and Frank Warren were keeping Ben Shalom out of the loop and even some of the interviews in fight week ahead of the card at Wembley Stadium saw the two older promoters 'bullying' the new kid on the block.

None of this matters to the Saudi authorities putting the money into these cards though and so Boxxer have a heavy presence on this event.

One of the big names on their roster will be in Riyadh as Ben Whittaker continues stepping up his level of competition and looking to show he is more than just a showman. There is no doubting his skills, but Whittaker perhaps needs to show that there is plenty of spite to go along with that if he really is going to make the kind of impact on the sport that so many believe he will.

The last two fights have gone the distance and so there is little doubt that Ben Whittaker will be able to get through the Rounds.

He is up against Liam Cameron who was last out in June losing a Split Decision to Lyndon Arthur, although Cameron felt he had done enough to win. That is perhaps not quite the case, even if Liam Cameron performed better than expected and the veteran has never been Stopped.

Fatigue had clearly gotten a hold of Liam Cameron in the defeat to Arthur and that is where Ben Whittaker can try and impress by turning the screw and forcing this fight to end inside the distance. Finishing, rather than entertaining, has not always been the focus for Whittaker, but this is a big card to show his talents and to prove he should be invited back and that means an exciting finish could go a long way.

The chances will be there for Ben Whittaker to find the combinations to get the referee to step up, although those will begin to show up a bit more in the second half of this contest.


Another Boxxer promoted fighter, albeit one that has been under the Matchroom and Queensberry banners previously, will be looking to shake off the ring rust as Chris Eubank Jr returns for the first time since September 2023.

When last out, Eubank Jr was beating Liam Smith and avenging a loss to the Liverpudlian, and there were plenty of reports suggesting Canelo had reached out to face the British fighter.

The offers were turned down with Chris Eubank Jr feeling he needed at least one fight before taking on such a challenge and rumours suggest that he will be a leading name to be Canelo's next opponent if he can get through this contest.

Kamil Szeremata is fighting for the second time this year, but he has dropped his level since losing consecutive fights against Gennady Golovkin and Jaime Munguia. In both he was beaten down and Stopped and the fast hands of Chris Eubank Jr may be too much for the Polish fighter to handle.

He may not hit as hard as either of those two names that have beaten Szeremata, but Chris Eubank Jr should still have the power to break down this opponent and pushing his resume forward to be the next challenger to Canelo Alvarez.

There is every chance that Chris Eubank Jr will begin to turn the screw in and around the same kind of time that Golovkin and Munguia closed the show against Kamil Szeremata and he will certainly have the motivation to push on and secure the Stoppage.


The first two names representing Boxxer look like they will be able to pick up solid victories, but it is going to be a much tougher task for Jack Massey.

He has earned his opportunity by upsetting Isaac Chamberlain in June and Jack Massey has shared a ring with Heavyweight Joseph Parker and managed to go the distance before losing a tight Decision.

A lack of opportunities before beating Chamberlain had slowed his career, but Jack Massey has been given this shot against Jai Opetaia and it looks a considerable challenge for him.

The British fighter has also gone the distance with Richard Riakporhe before losing another Decision, but it could be argued that he is facing the most dangerous puncher when going in with the IBF World Cruiserweight Champion.

He has become active with this being the fourth fight in thirteen months and Jai Opetaia has gotten rid of Mairis Breidis with two wins over the former World Champion. In between the wins over the Latvian, Opetaia has crushed a couple of British opponents, although neither Ellis Zorro nor Jordan Thompson are perhaps as good as Jack Massey.

The Champion hits very hard and he has shown he can find his range and rhythm very early on, although there is plenty of evidence to say that Jai Opetaia carries his power and that may be how this one ends.

Jack Massey has shown his grit and determination and he will likely try and weather the early storm and to work his way into the contest. The feeling is that Massey will eventually begin to break down as the power and quality of the Champion begins to shine through and it may see the corner or the referee decide that there is no need for the Challenger to take more punishment.


The chief support on this big card is a very good looking rematch between Fabio Wardley and Frazer Clarke after an exciting bout between the two in London back in March. The draw felt a little harsh on Clarke, but he had been put down in the fight and also lost another point for hitting low.

It would have been hoped that the rematch would have taken place in the United Kingdom, but you cannot begrudge the two heading to Riyadh knowing the winner will be given a lot of opportunities under this promotion.

Even the losing fighter will feel they will have other chances to recover, but neither Wardley nor Clarke are contemplating losing.

Both have promised to pick up from where they left off and it will be interesting to see what they have been working on and what, if any, adjustments are made.

Fabio Wardley certainly showed he had the power edge in the first bout, but he fatigued late on and that may have been down to the nose injury suffered. He was bleeding pretty well too, which could not have helped the energy levels, although Wardley may have found a Stoppage if his Knock Down had come even thirty seconds earlier than it did.

By the end Frazer Clarke was throwing out some big bombs of his own, and he did hurt the British Champion, although you have to wonder how much of that was down to Fabio Wardley slowing down as the fight took its toll.

There is every chance this is going to be another firefight and that could be dangerous for Frazer Clarke, especially early. Fabio Wardley would have learned plenty from the first fight and may show a bit more willingness to wait for the counters and not get too carried away early, but pressure is key for the current British Champion and this time he can follow up the big punches and find a way to end this rivalry inside the distance.

This is the chief support and it can live up to that billing with the feeling being a younger Fabio Wardley can put together something to force Frazer Clarke to buckle in the rivalry.

MY PICKS: Artur Beterbiev to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.75 Bet365 (1 Unit)
Ben Whittaker to Win Between 6-10 @ 3.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Chris Eubank Jr to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.30 William Hill (1 Unit)
Jai Opetaia to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.87 Sky Bet (1 Unit)
Fabio Wardley to Win by KO/TKO @ 2.62 Bet Fred (1 Unit)

Boxing 2024: 27-48, + 8.65 Units (101 Units Staked, + 8.56% Yield)