NBA Picks 2016 (November 1-6)

The NBA season is only a week old so when you see there have been big changes to someone's Power Rankings it is usually down to an overreaction to what is obviously going to potentially happen.

Teams are not likely going to be in mid-season form after their first regular season game so there have been some surprises and there are others that have picked up from where they have left off. All in all it doesn't suddenly make good teams bad, or bad teams good, and I think at this point of the season trying to pick good spots is more important than perhaps even the difference in level between teams.

I always say the NBA doesn't really get going until after the All-Star Break which is usually just as the Super Bowl is being played and that is when the basketball season gets a clear run alongside the NHL towards the Play Offs and the eventual Finals.


The picks had a mixed start to the season in the first week but a solid Halloween meant the losses were reduced significantly. In November I am going to break down the month into weekly segments as I did last season so all of the picks from Tuesday 1st November to Sunday 6th November will be placed in this one thread.

I am looking for a better week than the last one to get this season moving in the direction I want.


Tuesday 1st November
The picks from Monday went 3-0 with Atlanta and Chicago winning by wide margins and the Denver Nuggets fighting back in the second half against the Raptors to only just fail to win the game outright.

There are plenty of games on the slate this Tuesday as a new month rolls around.

Sacramento Kings @ Miami Heat Pick: Playing on a back to back is tough, but this is even more difficult for the Sacramento Kings as they are playing for the third day in four nights on the Eastern side of the United States. That is difficult as the Kings look to bounce back from a defeat at the Atlanta Hawks on Monday and this looks a very good oppotunity for the Miami Heat to win their first home game of the new season.

This isn't the Heat of a few years ago with all of the 'Big Three' either moved on or not able to play due to health issues. Losing Dwyane Wade will have been an even more bitter moment for the fans than when LeBron James decided to go home, while Chris Bosh looks like he will be forced into retirement with the Heat not happy to play him with the blood clot issues that have come up in each of the last two seasons.

Pat Riley is now constructing a new look roster and while they have some solid pieces in the likes of Hassan Whiteside and Goran Dragic, Miami don't look a genuine contender to Cleveland in the Eastern Conference. Whiteside could be very important in this game as he looks for better than the cramping that affected him in the loss to the San Antonio Spurs and he will need his size to give DeMarcus Cousins all he can deal with.

Despite the record, Miami haven't played badly Defensively but instead are looking for a few more ways to score points. Dion Waiters has been attacking the rim but is looking for more contact to go to the line and I do like this spot for Miami to get rolling with some fatigue likely to be in the Sacramento legs.

The Heat have a 11-3 record against the spread when hosting Sacramento in recent seasons and I will look for them to win this by around 7-10 points to get off the mark at home.


New York Knicks @ Detroit Pistons Pick: After the way the Detroit Pistons were blown out by the Toronto Raptors in their opening game of the season it was no wonder Stan Van Gundy was spitting feathers and looking for improvement across the board. He has gotten that in the last two games, particularly on the Defensive side of the court, and the Pistons are looking for three straight home wins.

Much of that is down to holding their last two opponents to 82 points and 83 points respectively, but this might be seen as a much bigger test for Detroit after the New York Knicks moved to 1-1 behind an 111 point effort aganst the Memphis Grizzlies. There are still some teething problems for the Knicks to improve upon, but the starters have offered some encouragement with their play.

A problem has still come Defensively with New York lacking the depth behind the starting five and it has to be remembered that the Grizzlies almost recovered a huge deficit in their loss at Madison Square Garden. The Pistons might not expose some of the three point issues in this one without Reggie Jackson running the point, but they can dominate the glass with Tobias Harris and Andre Drummond and that has been a key to their successes so far this season.

Dominating the boards means having more second chance points, and also increases the pressure on the Knicks to make sure they are making the right percentage shots. Drummond's size is also huge to prevent the likes of Derrick Rose making their penetrations into the paint and can give the Knicks some real issues unless they can get the big man into early foul trouble and limit his impact on the game.

This does look a good game and it is one the Knicks have enjoyed with a 16-6 record against the spread against the Pistons. I just feel the way Detroit are playing Defensively makes the difference, especially when the bench players are in the game, and the Pistons can come away with a win by around 6-8 points and earn the cover.


Wednesday 2nd November
It looked like the Miami Heat were going to blow their lead that they took into the Fourth Quarter, but they were fortunate to get an extra five minutes in Overtime which saw them cover against the Sacramento Kings and make it 2-0 on Monday.

That keeps a solid run going over the last few days, but this is a long season and I am looking to build on that momentum on Wednesday when a number of games are scheduled to be played.

Dallas Mavericks @ Utah Jazz Pick: In an 82 game regular season, I am a little surprised that so many teams and players have spoken about 'must win' spots after one week of the regular season has been played. The Dallas Mavericks are a veteran team who have more experience than that, but they will want to move on from their 0-3 record as soon as possible.

The record is not really indicative of the way the Mavericks have played with one defeat coming in Overtime and the other by a single point. They have also played some quality opponents in their first three games having lost in Indiana and to Houston twice, but things won't be easier on Wednesday as Dallas get set to visit the Utah Jazz.

There could be a boost for the team with the return of Dirk Nowitzki who remains a key part of what the Dallas Mavericks want to do on the court. Dallas have plenty of other areas they want to improve though, especially on the Defensive side of the court where they have allowed teams a little too much room making their shots, while they will want more out of Andrew Bogut and Nowitzki to turn around the rebounding deficit they have faced.

It looks like a good position to bounce back for the Mavericks who face the Utah Jazz who are coming in off a huge upset over the San Antonio Spurs on Tuesday to move back to 2-2 on the season. Utah were one of the teams many expected to take steps forward in the coming season, but the Jazz are missing some key players due to early season injuries and need George Hill to maintain the form he has shown to open up with his new team.

Utah have relied on a strong Defensive presence to remain in games despite the injuries to strong Offensive players who are missing. One issue the Jazz have had is defending the three point line and Dallas can use that to their advantage, while this looks a bad spot for Utah against a 0-3 team having upset San Antonio and hosting the Spurs next in a couple of days time.

The Mavericks are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games at the Utah Jazz and I think they might be getting one too many points in this one. Utah haven't been favoured too often this season and failed to cover in the one game they were favoured. Backing Dallas in this spot and recent history against Utah looks the call.


Portland Trail Blazers @ Phoenix Suns Pick: The Phoenix Suns were expected to have a difficult season with an inexperienced roster and in the tough Western Conference. The 0-4 start suggests that will be the case, but the Suns don't want to accept their position and that has to be a positive for the fans who will be looking for them to earn their first win of the season when the host the Portland Trail Blazers on Wednesday.

The Suns have not had the easiest start to the season with three games against some of the top teams in the West, while even the game at the Sacramento Kings came against a team that is expected to progress this season. As with any inexperienced team in the NBA, Phoenix have had some inconsistent performances with two blow out losses coupled with two tight defeats and that might be a feature of their season.

Usually I would consider this a good spot for Phoenix as they face the Portland Trail Blazers who played the Golden State Warriors yesterday. However they were blown out by the end of the Third Quarter which meant the starters got plenty of rest and Damian Lillard mentioned the positives of having a chance to make amends immediately.

Portland also got to see some solid play from the bench in the Fourth Quarter which might be exciting for them going forward, but it is the fact they are desperate to bounce back which makes me think they can do that. The Suns have struggled to avoid fouls and the likes of Lillard and CJ McCollum are very confident attacking the paint and making plays at the rims.

The Trail Blazers are 5-2 against the spread in the last seven against Phoenix and I like them to bounce back from their heavy loss to the Warriors and cover on the road.


Oklahoma City Thunder @ LA Clippers Pick: The Oklahoma City Thunder are trying to show that losing Kevin Durant is not going to effect what they are able to do in the new NBA season. There was some suggestion that the Thunder would go for Blake Griffin in the next off-season but Oklahoma City look to be re-signing the likes of Steven Adams and Victor Oladipo so might not have the money to go for a big Free Agenty signing have already upped their money to Russell Westbrook.

That looks a good deal with Westbrook doing a little bit of everything to help the Thunder open 3-0 but they have yet to play any team that is expected to at least challenge for a Play Off spot. Now they have to head to the LA Clippers who also have opened the season 3-0 and remain one of the top teams in the West built around DeAndre Jordan, Blake Griffin and Chris Paul.

The lack of depth has hurt the Clippers in recent seasons, but they look to have brought in some solid veterans and that has seen the bench respond in the opening three wins of the season. It is that bench that is going to be important for the Clippers and their level of competition early in the season should mean they are more battle tested than the Oklahoma City Thunder.

This also looks a terrible spot for the Thunder who are playing the Golden State Warriors and the traitorous Kevin Durant next. You can't tell me that game hasn't been circled and focused on since the schedule came up and Oklahoma City are on a back to back before that one.

I just wouldn't be surprised if Westbrook leaves something in the tank for the game at The Oracle Arena on Thursday and the Clippers can extend their 4-1 record against the spread from the last five games against the Thunder. It looks the perfect time for the Clippers to host Oklahoma City who are perhaps not as good as the early record indicates and I like the home team to win by around 10-12 points.


Thursday 3rd November
It was not a good day for the picks with a 0-3 Wednesday but I can't be too disappointed with the NBA season quickly moving forward. Hopefully Thursday will get this month back into a positive position even though there are limited games on slate.

Sacramento Kings @ Orlando Magic Pick: It has been a tough road trip for the Sacramento Kings who have been beaten at the Atlanta Hawks and Miami Heat already, but they were a little unfortunate in the last game in Miami. Now they head to the Orlando Magic and I am not sure that the Magic should be considered a favourite in the game.

Orlando are still trying to find an Offensive groove with some new faces in the line up although they should match up well with the Kings and DeMarcus Cousins in particular. They have the size of Bismarck Biyombo, Nicola Vucevic and Serge Ibaka to give Cousins problems, but the Magic have struggled to defend the three point arc and that is where Sacramento could open things up.

That has seen the Magic struggle on the Defensive side of the court and they have allowed at least 101 points in every game they have played this season. It makes winning games and covering spreads difficult and the Kings have a very strong 4-1 record against the spread in recent games in Orlando.

The Kings have not been scoring points easily themselves, but I think the last two match ups were difficult for them. This one should be a little better but that will need more out of veterans Ty Lawson and Matt Barnes, but both could have more spacing for shots from beyond the arc which can be important for them. It isn't a lot of points, but I do think the Sacramento Kings can cover on Thursday.


Boston Celtics @ Cleveland Cavaliers Pick: While the Boston Celtics were battling the Chicago Bulls and winning a tough home game, the Cleveland Cavaliers had the night off. LeBron James and JR Smith were two of their players who took in Game 7 of the World Series which would have sapped some emotion from both players when you consider how that game went down, although I think facing the Celtics will inspire this entire Cavaliers squad.

There has been no love lost between these teams in recent years and the current rosters had a major falling out in the Play Offs two seasons ago when Boston were accused of deliberately injuring Kevin Love. That was part of the reason why Cleveland fell to the Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals as James was left as the last of the Three Muskateers and Cleveland won't need much to get up for facing the Celtics.

Playing on a back to back has not bothered Boston in recent times with a really solid record against the spread in this spot, but they are missing Al Horford and Jae Crowder which is a big problem for them. Going up against a Cleveland team who are playing really well on the Defensive side of the court without two of their better Offensive players and I think that shows up here.

The Cleveland bench is playing well enough too and they are 4-1 against the spread in their last five games against Boston at home. This does look a lot of points at first glance, but the Celtics have to be feeling the game against Chicago on Wednesday and missing Horford and Crowder is tough to overcome.

MY PICKS: 01/11 Miami Heat - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)
01/11 Detroit Pistons - 4 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)
02/11 Dallas Mavericks + 4.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
02/11 Portland Trail Blazers - 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Coral (1 Unit)
02/11 LA Clippers - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)
03/11 Sacramento Kings + 1.5 Points @ 1.91 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)
03/11 Cleveland Cavaliers - 9.5 Points @ 1.95 Ladbrokes (1 Unit)

November 1-6 Update: 2-5, - 3.18 Units

October Final: 8-9, - 1.72 Units

Final Season 2016: 150-143-7, - 5.37 Units

Final Season 2015: 109-108-5, - 6.91 Units

Final Season 2014: 58-72-1, - 16.86 Units

Final Season 2013: 105-93-3, + 10.49 Units

Final Season 2012: 79-53-1, + 27.48 Units

Midweek Football Picks 2016 (November 1-3)

After a really solid September, October proved to be a really miserable month and one I am glad to see the back of. I didn't really have a lot of luck in October and it was summed up by Manchester United somehow failing to score at least three times against Burnley, although the fan in me would have settled for a deflected 1-0 win after seeing the form Tom Heaton was in.

It has left United off the pace being set by the top teams in the Premier League and has already dented the 20 points from 24 available that I had targeted prior to the Burnley game. Of course that can still be achieved, but it might need a win at somewhere like Goodison Park to get back on track.

Winning games is all that matters to Manchester United right now, but they can put the Premier League to the back of the mind for a few days and try to continue the strong form shown in the Cup competitions. Manchester United have won 4 Cup games in a row since losing at Feyenoord and extending that sequence could see them through to the Europa League Last 32 by the end of the month.

Match Day 4 of the European competitions take centre stage over the first three days of November and this can be a pivotal round of games as teams begin to separate in the Groups. Most of the English teams would love to secure qualification to the next Round without the hassle of needing a result on Match Day 6 which is played in December as the heavy festive period gets going.

That should mean teams are focused on the two rounds of games in November to try and book their places into European competition and then turn attention away from the competitions until February. However that looks a tough task for the likes of Manchester City, Tottenham Hotspur and Southampton who either suffered setbacks on Match Day 3 or are in Groups which simply won't be decided easily.

I am looking for a really positive start to November to erase the memories of October and get this season moving back in the right direction and hopefully the little bit of luck every pick requires is on my side.


Besiktas v Napoli Pick: There are some issues in Turkey that means fans are going to have to be doubly careful when they visit Istanbul this week as Napoli and Manchester United both play here in the coming days. Hopefully we don't hear of any unsavoury incidents and everyone gets home safely after watching their football teams in action.

This game is going to be played a couple of hours before the rest of the Champions League schedule on Tuesday and this is a huge game for both Besiktas and Napoli with the top three teams in this Group separated by two points. That is thanks to Besiktas leaving Naples with a 2-3 win two weeks ago after it looked like the Italian team would not only be going through to the Second Round, but were in a strong position to win the Group.

Napoli are still capable of doing that, but that home defeat has complicated matters with away games at Besiktas and Benfica to come. Two losses might mean the Europa League is the best Napoli can hope for and the game here is going to be a tough test for the side who were beaten at Juventus on Saturday thanks to former striker Gonzalo Higuain.

That does mean only 1 win from the last 4 away games in all competitions since beating Dynamo Kiev 1-2 on Match Day 1, but goals haven't been the problem. It is Napoli's defensive issues that have prevented the side from really finding some consistency and it won't be getting easier when visiting Besiktas who have scored twice in 5 of their 6 home games this season.

The exception did come in the Champions League in a 1-1 home draw with Dynamo Kiev, but this looks a game that is going to produce attacking football and chances at both ends of the field. If the teams are as clinical in front of goal as they were in Naples, we should see at least three goals shared out in the early game and that is going to be my pick.


Borussia Monchengladbach v Celtic Pick: The 0-2 home loss to Borussia Monchengladbach on Match Day 3 has left Celtic in a precarious position in the Group even when it comes to potentially falling into the Europa League Knock Out Stage. Another defeat on Tuesday will effectively finish off Celtic's chances barring an couple of upsets over Manchester City and Barcelona and earning a win here is a big task when you consider their away form in European football.

Celtic have not won any of their last 9 away games in Europe and they have lost 3 of their 4 away games in the Champions League this season. That includes a 1-0 loss at Lincoln Red Imps and a 2-0 defeat at Hapoel Be'er Sheva and has to be a concern for Brendan Rodgers when you think how effective Borussia Monchengladbach have been defensively at home.

Borussia Monchengladbach have kept 3 clean sheets in a row at home, but goals have been more of a problem for them. They are missing some serious attacking talent which is a concern, but I do think they are going to be a little too good for a poor travelling Celtic team.

However they do look short in the outright market and instead it might make sense to focus on how Borussia Monchengladbach may win this game. I considered backing them to cover the Asian Handicap, but a lack of goals is a concern so instead I have been tempted in by the huge price on Borussia Monchengladbach to win this game with a clean sheet.

They haven't kept too many clean sheets at home in the Champions League, but recent form and Celtic's struggles for goals away from home makes this feel like a big price to me.


Ludogorets Razgrad v Arsenal Pick: There did look to be a clear difference in level of quality that Arsenal and Ludogorets Razgrad could call upon two weeks ago when they played in North London, but I am expecting the game in Bulgaria to be much more competitive. You have to think Ludogorets Razgrad are going to come out with a point to prove and show they are better than the 6-0 defeat to Arsenal on Match Day 3 indicated.

Playing away from home in the Champions League is not an easy task and Arsenal have found that with 1 win from their last 5 away games in this competition. You shouldn't ignore that the majority of those games have come against sides that are significantly stronger than Ludogorets Razgrad, but Arsenal did lose 2-1 at Dinamo Zagreb in the Group Stage last season.

That is the kind of result that has become a feature of the way Arsenal have played in the month of November in recent seasons, but you have to think this current squad is playing at too high a level to be contained. They have been scoring goals for fun, even away from home, and Arsenal should have too much in the locker for Ludogorets Razgrad who conceded three times in quick succession in a 1-3 home loss to Paris Saint-Germain.

It is the feeling that Arsenal will create chances and score goals here which makes me think they are going to have too much for Ludogorets Razgrad. There is the North London derby coming up next Sunday, but Arsene Wenger will know his players have time to refresh for that one and I think he will play a strong line up.

Ludogorets Razgrad did only lose by a single goal margin to Real Madrid at home a couple of seasons ago, but I believe Arsenal will match the Paris Saint-Germain margin of victory here and I will back them on the Asian Handicap.


Manchester City v Barcelona Pick: I was really hoping that the Barcelona 4-0 win over Manchester City coupled with the huge name they bring to England would have seen the layers have the home team as a big underdog in this one. Instead it looks like the layers might have looked back at the result and performance from Manchester City at the Nou Camp and been able to separate those two elements in the same way as I have.

Barring two of the most ridiculous errors you are going to see, Manchester City very much held their own against Barcelona and had plenty of chances to score in that game. A mistake made it 1-0 to the home team and Manchester City never really had much of a hope when reduced to ten men thanks to Claudio Bravo's rush of blood to the head.

Up to that moment Manchester City looked dangerous going forward and I can't imagine Pep Guardiola is going to change that philosophy too much on Match Day 4. Perhaps he goes with Sergio Aguero up front rather than Kevin De Bruyne, but ultimately I think Manchester City can create chances against a Barcelona team who have recently conceded twice at Celta Vigo and Valencia.

The other side of the pitch is still going to bring problems for Manchester City though as Neymar, Luis Suarez and Lionel Messi can pressure mistakes out of a team that has made plenty of them at the back. Bravo is suspended while Vincent Kompany might not be risked and it points to MSN having their opportunities in this one too.

Barcelona have scored at least twice in their last 5 away games in all competitions, although it should be noted that they are not the best travellers in the Champions League and had to come from behind to beat Borussia Monchengladbach on Match Day 2.

I really believe City have a shot in this one if they are not missing the chances that came their way in Barcelona. They will need to score goals to beat this team and I think Guardiola will play an attacking line up to give his team a chance to do that, but I also believe Manchester City will conceded goals which puts me off backing them to win this game. Instead I can see a situation where both teams combine for an entertaining game that produces at least four goals overall and I will back that to happen.


PSV Eindhoven v Bayern Munich Pick: Over the last couple of seasons in the Champions League, PSV Eindhoven have proven to be a tough nut to crack, although this is the most attacking team they would have faced in that time. The goalless draw with Atletico Madrid last season and the 0-1 home defeat to them earlier in the Group would have shown PSV Eindhoven the difference in quality, but a team like Bayern Munich is not going to wear them down slowly like Atletico Madrid like to do.

Instead Bayern Munich will look to get forward and score goals and I think PSV Eindhoven will struggle to contain them, especially with more of an onus to get forward and attack. PSV Eindhoven did win all 3 games here in the Group last season, but none of those came against a team as strong as Bayern Munich and the reigning Dutch Champions have just been struggling for goals here all season.

That doesn't bode well against a Bayern Munich team who crushed Augsburg 1-3 away from home at the weekend and who have scored 15 goals in 6 games since the 1-0 loss at Atletico Madrid.

Winning the Group is the motivation for Bayern Munich to keep in touch with Atletico Madrid as well as improving their goal difference and I do think they will be too strong for PSV Eindhoven here. Bayern Munich have only won 2 of their last 11 away Champions League games, but both came in the Group Stage last season and this is a team that also scored twice at Juventus and Benfica on their travels last season.

Getting to at least two goals here might be enough for Bayern Munich to cover the Asian Handicap and I do think they can win with a little comfort on Tuesday to keep the pressure on Atletico Madrid at the top of the Group.


Monaco v CSKA Moscow Pick: This Group looks like one that could potentially come down to Match Day 6 before we know who will make it through to the Second Round. All four teams look evenly matched and that makes these home games very important for every team in the Group.

Monaco will be pleased with four points from six away from home, but they will need to win their remaining two home games if they have serious ambitions of making it through the Group. This one is particularly important against an out of form CSKA Moscow who have lost their last 4 away games in all competitions and have struggled for clean sheets in the Champions League.

With Monaco having won 7 of their last 9 games at home in all competitions, you can see why the layers have them down as an odds on favourite. Monaco had won 4 in a row at home in the Champions League before being held to a 1-1 draw by Bayer Leverkusen and they have been scoring goals at home domestically.

The concern is taking that level into the Champions League and Monaco have only scored more than once in 1 of their last 6 home games in European football. That might not be enough against CSKA Moscow who have scored in 10 of their last 14 away games in the Champions League, but I think Monaco are capable of doing enough to win this game.

Two years ago they beat Zenit St Petersburg here in the Group Stage of the Champions League and I think Monaco can edge past CSKA Moscow this season to put themselves in a very strong position to qualify for the Last 16 on Match Day 5.


Porto v Club Brugge Pick: The late penalty scored by Porto in the 1-2 win at Club Brugge on Match Day 3 could be the pivotal moment for the Portuguese side who are trying to avoid exiting the Champions League in the Group Stage for a second season in a row. It does look like Leicester City might have pushed clear as the Group winner, but the win over Club Brugge has given Porto every chance of joining the English Champions with two of their remaining three games to be played at home.

I expect Porto to have too much for Club Brugge again on Match Day 4 and I do think the latter have struggled to cope with the step up in level. The 4-0 loss in Copenhagen really highlighted that and Club Brugge have not been in the greatest form domestically to suggest they can turn that around here.

Porto have been scoring plenty of goals at home in recent games although the concern is the drop in results at home in their most recent European games. It was a 0-2 home loss to Dynamo Kiev which effectively cost Porto a place in the Second Round of the Champions League last season, but they have beaten the likes of Chelsea and Bayern Munich here over the last couple of years so should have enough to see off Club Brugge.

With the goals being scored domestically, I will look for Porto to come through with a win by a couple of goals at least with goal difference perhaps going to be a huge part of which teams get through out of this Group.


Sevilla v Dinamo Zagreb Pick: The Champions League Group Stage can produce some really huge games like Manchester City facing Barcelona, but there are a few mismatches in this Round too. For Dinamo Zagreb it would be an achievement to simply avoid defeat against the likes of Juventus and Sevilla, but ultimately they don't feel any disgrace losing when you consider the level of quality that both clubs can call upon.

It isn't a big surprise that Dinamo Zagreb have particularly struggled away from home and that all but one of their away Group defeats have come by at least two goals. This is a team that is used to bossing things domestically so suddenly asking them to defend in numbers is not something the players are used to or able to do for a long enough period to keep teams from eventually wearing them down.

I do think Sevilla can match those margins of victory here even if they have relied on a strong defence for their points in the Group rather than any free-scoring methods. Goals have been tough for them since the 6-4 win over Espanyol to open the Spanish season, but I do think Sevilla can score at least twice which may be enough for a comfortable win on the night.

An early goal for Sevilla will force their guests to perhaps open up a little bit and I am going to back Sevilla to win by a two goal margin, at least, for the first time at home since the victory over Espanyol. That will keep them on track for a place in the Second Round which might be confirmed at the end of the evening if Juventus have also won at home when they play Lyon.


Tottenham Hotspur v Bayer Leverkusen Pick: All of a sudden Tottenham Hotspur have gone 5 games without a win in all competitions with 4 of those ending in draws. That has led to fans really looking for Harry Kane to return sooner rather than later after initial suggestions that Tottenham Hotspur could not only cope without him, but might actually be better without him.

Those suggestions won't be around now as Tottenham Hotspur have been struggling in front of goal with just 3 goals scored since the win over Manchester City and 2 of those have come thanks to penalties. They've created chances but Tottenham Hotspur have just faltered with the final shot, although some of their issues have come down to misfortune too with the woodwork or top goalkeeping saves preventing Tottenham Hotspur from kicking on.

Now they go back into the Champions League knowing they need to start winning games if they are going to extend their stay in the competition to the Knock Out Stage. A win at Wembley Stadium on Wednesday would send Tottenham Hotspur a long way towards going through to the Last 16 but they will have to do better than when going down to a surprising 1-2 loss against Monaco in this Stadium.

I am not sure being away from White Hart Lane is the right decision from a footballing standpoint, but financially it made enough sense for Tottenham Hotspur to do that. They will have to hope that Hugo Lloris can bring his form here because Bayer Leverkusen are going to test them again having seen the Frenchman make some outstanding second half saves to deny them the victory two weeks ago.

Bayer Leverkusen have not exactly been in the greatest of form themselves, but a 1-2 win over Wolfsburg at the weekend might give them some confidence to take into this game. While they have been scoring goals away from home, Bayer Leverkusen have been conceding them at an alarming rate too and I do think this time we will have goals after the goalless draw in Germany two weeks ago.

Both teams had a lot of really good chances in that game and should really have been better in front of goal and I will take those same opportunities coming up in this one. The draw does Tottenham Hotspur little good this time so they have to be a little more positive and my only concern is that Wembley Stadium hosted a NFL game on Sunday and I worry about the turf conditions.

The weather in London hasn't been too bad though so I expect a good playing surface on which we should see at least three goals shared out.


Fenerbahce v Manchester United Pick: The 4-1 win over Fenerbahce in the Europa League Group Stage has been a rare positive moment for Manchester United in recent weeks and the sky is falling in if you believe everything the media tells you. Manchester United have had a tough stretch of games and the draw at Liverpool and a win over Manchester City in the English Football League Cup are solid results.

I don't want to get too down about the goalless draw with Burnley because on another day Manchester United win 5-0 and Burnley feel fortunate to come away with that margin of defeat.

They do need a boost in confidence in front of goal and I expect Jose Mourinho to pick a strong team in this visit to Istanbul with the Europa League still an important competition for the manager. Getting into the top four of the Premier League will be a challenge, but Manchester United have another route back into the Champions League which some fans and members of the media seem to forget.

Instead of criticising the manager for giving the competition the respect it deserves, they should recognise that Manchester United can use the Europa League as a potential second route into the Champions League and should take it seriously.

Being in a tough Group also has played a part in Mourinho's thinking when it comes to starting teams picked and I can't imagine he changes tact here knowing a win could send Manchester United virtually through to the Last 32. That won't be easy against a Fenerbahce team that are far better at home than on their travels and who have won 6 of their last 7 home European games including the last 5 in a row.

Fenerbahce will recognise that Manchester United are not at full strength defensively with half the first choice back four not travelling to Istanbul. That should mean they try and get forward but I do feel there are gaps that Manchester United can expose at the other end of the field too, particularly if Fenerbahce defend as badly as they did at Old Trafford.

I am not sure I like Manchester United as a pretty strong favourite to win here considering Fenerbahce's home record, but instead am looking at the chance of seeing three goals or more at odds against. Both teams look like they will be stronger in attacking positions than defensively and goals have flowed in recent Manchester United away games outside of the trip to Anfield.

An early goal could really open this game up and I think we will see goals at both ends in a game that could be pivotal to deciding who qualifies for the Last 32.


Maccabi Tel-Aviv v AZ Alkmaar Pick: This was supposed to be a Group in which Maccabi Tel-Aviv and AZ Alkmaar would challenge one another to follow Zenit St Petersburg through to the Last 32 of the Europa League. However Dundalk have surprised both clubs to the point where the loser on Match Day 4 might be in too difficult a position to make it through to the next Round.

It should produce an attacking display from both teams and goals have certainly been flowing when Maccabi Tel-Aviv have played at home. 8 of the last 9 games Maccabi Tel-Aviv have played at home have featured at least three goals, while their last 6 here in the Europa League have also ended that way.

Goals have been more of an issue for AZ Alkmaar, but they have featured in high-scoring goals away from home in this competition with their last 8 on their travels ending with three or more goals shared out.

Neither team can settle for a draw and so I expect both to go on the front foot and that should produce an entertaining game.


Nice v Salzburg Pick: The Europa League does seem to be a competition that is respected much more on the continent than it is in England, and that has seen French leaders Nice play some relatively strong line ups in the Group. That hasn't paid out for them having lost their opening two Group games, but the win over Salzburg in Austria two weeks ago puts their destiny back in their own hands.

Nice can get through to the Last 32 if they can win their remaining three games and two of those will be played at home where they have won 4 in a row and scored at least twice in each of those wins.

They will feel they have the edge over Salzburg who have struggled in the Europa League after falling out of the Champions League and who might be more focused on domestic matters. Three losses means Salzburg are effectively out of the Europa League already and I think they might struggle to raise themselves for the remaining games in the Group.

Salzburg have lost half of their last 6 away games in European competition and Nice are expected to play a strong team to get back into position in the Group. With home advantage and goals flowing in the team, I think Nice can win this one at odds against.


PAOK v Qarabag Pick: This is a pivotal game in this Group for both PAOK and Qarabag as they chase the 2nd spot behind Fiorentina who look to be the pick of the teams in the Group. Both PAOK and Qarabag have earned 4 points so the winner is going to go a long way to securing a place in the Last 32 of the Europa League with two games to go.

The home advantage looks to be a key for PAOK and I think that will give them enough of an edge to win this. At first I was a little concerned with the fact that PAOK have won 1 of their last 6 home games in European football and that 3 of their last 5 games here in those games have ended in goalless.

However I think Qarabag have shown they have some difficulties on their travels and I am not sure they can keep PAOK from scoring. The home side have been very strong defensively so one goal might be all we need to see them claim the three points having conceded just 1 goal in their last 7 at home in all competitions.

Qarabag have perhaps found it a little difficult when travelling in Europe against the superior competition they face compared with at home. Their 2-0 win over PAOK two weeks ago should give them confidence, but PAOK have proven much stronger at home and I will back them to win this one.


Southampton v Inter Milan Pick: Two weeks ago Inter Milan beat Southampton 1-0 at the San Siro and that might have suggested a tight game, but instead it was one filled with chances and I am also unsure how Southampton lost that game. They could have been two or three goals up by half time alone and I expect a stronger Southampton line up to begin this one at home.

The layers have cottoned onto that with Southampton at a very short price, one you might not have expected to see against Inter Milan in recent seasons. That looks too short for me when you think Inter Milan had scored in 5 consecutive away games in all competitions before the 1-0 loss at Sampdoria which cost Frank de Boer his job as manager.

How Stefano Vecchi approaches this game and that uncertainty makes Inter Milan a dangerous team to back against, but those goals suggest they can give Southampton something to think about. On the other hand they have been poor defensively and The Saints only failed to score last weekend against Chelsea because of a poor linesman decision to rule out Charlie Austin's strike.

Goals can be a problem for Southampton but their pace in forward areas makes them dangerous for Inter Milan and I can see the home team having just enough to earn the three points. However it will need two goals with Inter Milan likely to be a threat in forward areas too and Southampton won't miss the chances again that they created two weeks ago.

At odds against backing at least three goals looks an attractive price.


Villarreal v Osmanlispor Pick: There is a tendency to struggle to know what kind of teams that managers will play in the Europa League but clubs from Spain tend to take the competition very seriously. That should still be the case for Villarreal who dropped into the Europa League and were set as one of the leading contenders to go on and win the trophy in May.

While they have not been able to really take a hold of this Group, Villarreal have two home games left in the section and a win on Thursday will put them in a commanding position to make it through to the Last 32.

With the home form as it is, Villarreal should be too strong for visitors Osmanlispor who blew a 2-0 home lead against them in Match Day 3 in a 2-2 draw.

The Turkish side have not been in great form of late with a 7 game run without a victory behind them. They have also been conceding too many goals away from home and that will likely be an issue against a Villarreal team that are comfortable going forward and looking to score goals.

I think Villarreal prove to be too good on the day and I think they will win with some room to spare. I will back the home team to cover the Asian Handicap and move into a position to qualify for the Last 32 on Match Day 5.

MY PICKS: Besiktas-Napoli Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.85 Betfair Sportsbook (2 Units)
Borussia Monchengladbach Win to Nil @ 2.70 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Arsenal - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 2.08 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Manchester City-Barcelona Over 3.5 Goals @ 2.30 William Hill (2 Units)
Bayern Munich - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.93 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Monaco @ 1.80 Bet365 (2 Units)
Porto - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.88 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Sevilla - 1.5 Asian Handicap @ 1.71 Bet Victor (2 Units)
Tottenham Hotspur-Bayer Leverkusen Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.83 Sporting Bet (2 Units)
Fenerbahce-Manchester United Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.20 William Hill (2 Units)
Maccabi Tel Aviv-AZ Alkmaar Over 2.5 Goals @ 1.73 Bet365 (2 Units)
Nice @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
PAOK @ 1.80 Coral (2 Units)
Southampton-Inter Milan Over 2.5 Goals @ 2.10 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Villarreal - 1.25 Asian Handicap @ 1.92 Bet365 (2 Units)

October Final: 29-41-2, - 21.23 Units (139 Units Staked, - 15.27% Yield)

September Final: 43-28-1, + 35.17 Units (133 Units Staked, + 26.44% Yield)

August Final: 31-38-2, - 9 Units (124 Units Staked, - 7.26% Yield)

Season 2016/17: 102-107-5, + 4.94 Units (396 Units Staked, + 1.25% Yield)

Season 2015/16: 133-174-2, + 0.89 Units (669 Units Staked, + 0% Yield)

Season 2014/15: 159-208-5, - 20.22 Units (647 Units Staked, - 3.13% Yield)

Season 2013/14: 164-185-3, + 15.84 Units (577 Units Staked, + 2.75% Yield

Season 2012/13: + 4.42 Units (415 Units Staked, + 1.07% Yield)

Paris Masters Tennis Picks 2016 (November 1st)

It was interesting listening to the Novak Djokovic interview this week which seemed to suggest that the current World Number 1 might have rediscovered some of the fire and motivation that has been lacking from his game since winning the French Open. I don't know Djokovic, but clearly something in his personal life has thrown things around where perhaps tennis was shown not to be the priority in his life, but I do think he sounds happier than he has in months.

Even when reaching the Final at the US Open there was always this feeling that Djokovic wasn't fully engaged as he has been over the last three seasons. Maybe the threat to his World Number 1 World Ranking to a player that I actually don't think Djokovic has ever felt inferior to has got him refocused as he heads into this big event in Paris where Djokovic needs to reach the Final at least to hold off Andy Murray.

You have to credit Murray for how close he is to reaching the top of the ATP World Rankings, but he has to win the tournament here to move above Novak Djokovic and I am not sure how much will be left in the tank with all the tennis he has played lately. Murray is right to say that the World Rankings are all that matters as to where a player should be Ranked, but I don't think many will accept him as the best player in the world even if he is the Number 1 for a few months.

I think it will be similar to when Andy Roddick became World Number 1 in 2003 for a few weeks but without ever really being considered better than Roger Federer at that time. Even if Novak Djokovic was to lose the World Number 1 Ranking, I expect him to go into the Australian Open as the favourite to win the tournament.


The picks went 1-1 on Monday with one coming back as a void pick when Robin Haase pulled out with an injury. I was a little lucky with Haase not being able to challenge Fernando Verdasco, but hopefully I will have some completed winners on Tuesday.

This is also the day the WTA Elite Trophy tournament gets underway with the four Groups drawn on Monday and the top player in each going through to the Semi Finals which are played later this week.


Elina Svitolina - 4.5 games v Kiki Bertens: There are three matches being played at the WTA Elite Trophy event on Tuesday, but the only one I am focused on is the second match due to come out on court. It is hard to know the motivation of the players heading into an event played after the WTA Finals and considering it is only being played for the second time.

Out of the two players in this match, Elina Svitolina has ended 2016 in much stronger form than Kiki Bertens and I do think this plays a big part in this one. I am sure Svitolina wants to get back to producing her best tennis having been targeted with threats and online abuse in her last tournament in Moscow where she reached the Semi Final.

That run came despite not feeling absolutely safe in the Russian capital and I think Svitolina has been playing just about as well as anyone on the Tour in the last six weeks. Compare that with Kiki Bertens who might have reached the Semi Final in Luxembourg, but who had lost seven matches in a row before that and I wonder if she is looking forward to the end of 2016 more than Svitolina who would likely wish this season was extended a few more weeks.

It is a match in which Svitolina is capable of getting enough serves back into play and then look the stronger player in the rallies. The Bertens game has plenty of power, but I don't think her focus is going to be as good as Svitolina's and that should see the Ukrainian player come through with a 63, 64 win.


Nicolas Mahut - 1.5 games v Martin Klizan: Last week was a disappointing tournament for Nicolas Mahut as he was beaten in the First Round for the second event in a row. However he is backing playing in his native France this week in Paris and reached the Quarter Final when playing in Metz a few weeks ago.

Mahut will be hoping he can bring that kind of form into the Paris Masters having lost in the First Round in his last two appearances here. The confidence will have to be there that Mahut can win this match when you think Martin Klizan has lost six matches in a row and surely wants to call it a day when it comes to the 2016 season and recharge the batteries over the next few weeks.

The Slovakian did steal a set off of Andy Murray last week which is impressive considering how well Murray has been playing, but Klizan has rarely reached those levels in recent weeks. In fact Klizan is just 2-13 in his last fifteen sets contested on the Tour and for all the solid attributes he has, you can't fix confidence issues and mental issues as quickly as the physical ones.

I think there is a lot to like about the Klizan game and Mahut hasn't exactly been winning a lot of matches. However I think the lack of competitiveness in the recent Klizan performances indicates a player whose motivation or confidence is not in a good place at the moment and I think Mahut comes through with a tough 76, 64 win.


Tomas Berdych - 4.5 games v Joao Sousa: Over recent seasons Tomas Berdych has become a familiar face in the World Tour Finals, but he needs a big week if he is going to head to London in the main draw and not as an alternate. He had a tenuous hold of the final place at the World Tour Finals until Marin Cilic won the title in Basel and Berdych can't afford another early loss this week in the final open tournament of the season.

Berdych won the title in Shenzhen and reached the Quarter Final in St Petersburg having seen injury prevent him from taking his place in the US Open draw. Those results put Berdych in a strong position to finish in the top eight places, but the Czech player has had three opening match defeats since those tournaments mentioned.

This does look a decent chance for Berdych to snap that run and give himself a chance of playing in London for the seventh year in a row. While I have to respect Joao Sousa for getting as much out of his game as he has, Sousa is also someone who struggles to hold his serve and will have difficulties dealing with the big Berdych serve which gives the latter a real edge in the match.

That has happened in their two previous matches against one another with Berdych winning in dominant fashion. The last two losses have been disappointing for Berdych, but Sousa's own form is sketchy to say the least and I think Berdych can put himself into a position to move into the Third Round behind a 63, 64 win.


Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 games v Pierre-Hugues Herbert: A lot of Singles players will be chasing the final places at the ATP World Tour Finals in the tournament in Paris, but Pierre-Hugues Herbert will be heading to London to take part in the Doubles tournament. Before that he has come through a couple of Qualifiers to make the main draw of the Singles event in Paris which should keep his World Ranking in a strong enough position for automatic entry into the Australian Open in January.

There is quite a bit to like about Herbert's game on this surface as he has a decent first serve and his Doubles skills means he is very comfortable getting forward to the net. That could help this become something of an 'old school' kind of match with both Herbert and Feliciano Lopez very happy to play some serve-volley tennis to try and pressure the other into making mistakes.

The chip and charge off the second serve is likely to be an effective tool for both players who are going to be in the World Tour Finals Doubles tournament and the player winning the higher percentage second serve points likely wins this match. In that regard you have to favour Lopez who has produced better results as a Singles competitor than Herbert.

The Frenchman will have the home support and won a title on the indoor hard courts at the Challenger level recently as well as having two wins in Paris in the Qualifiers. That will give Herbert confidence for the upset, but I think Lopez will weather the storm and come through a first set tie-breaker before seeing Herbert make a couple of errors on his own service games to lead to a 76, 64 win for the Spaniard.


Jack Sock - 1.5 games v Philipp Kohlschreiber: He might be up to Number 24 in the World Rankings, but I am still looking for more consistency from Jack Sock to really start proving he can be the face of American men's tennis. Sock has a solid game, but I think he has too many mental lapses at the moment and there are also some concerns about his physical strength when going deep into tournaments.

He does have some solid results since reaching the Fourth Round at the US Open and I definitely think Sock has shown a little more form than Philipp Kohlschreiber in that time. The Jack Sock loss to Marcel Granollers last week is a concern, but I am going to say that had something to do with reaching the Final in Stockholm before that and he should give a much stronger showing against Kohlschreiber.

It has been tough for Kohlschreiber in recent weeks with a lot of surprising losses as the German has recovered from an injury but perhaps not at full confidence closing out the season. Kohlschreiber is 3-4 in his matches since coming back from a withdrawal at the US Open and I think some of the performances have seen him struggle to deal with the consistency needed off the ground.

The Kohlschreiber serve can be dangerous, but he has not been getting enough first serves in play and that is where Sock has to find a way to take advantage. Sock's own serve is decent and I think he will be able to back it up a little more than Kohlschreiber and come through in a tight three set match with a 76, 46, 63 win for the American.


Milos Raonic - 3.5 games v Pablo Carreno Busta: It has been a really solid end to the 2016 season for Pablo Carreno Busta who must now have the confidence to know he is more than a clay court specialist. That is what I have thought of the Spaniard so far in his career, but he is beginning to win more matches on the hard courts and taking the title home in Moscow would have boosted the confidence even more.

I still think Carreno Busta struggles to match the very best players on the Tour and I think someone like Milos Raonic is capable of breaking him down a couple of times over the course of a match. That can be critical when you think of Raonic's serve and the difficulty of having to recover a break deficit, although it does have to be said that the the Canadian has had a tough couple of weeks since withdrawing from the tournament in Beijing.

It was another early loss for Raonic in Basel last week as he was upset by Ricardas Berankis and I have to think he is going to be looking for some form to take into the World Tour Finals by producing a strong run here. He should receive plenty of support from the locals having come from Montreal in Canada and that can inspire Raonic here.

I respect the Carreno Busta game and his ability to fight for points and the wins in Winston Salem and Moscow will have boosted his confidence. However Carreno Busta can throw in a couple of really sloppy service games and that is the moment where Raonic can take control of this match and come through with a 76, 63 win.

MY PICKS: Elina Svitolina - 4.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Nicolas Mahut - 1.5 Games @ 1.91 Bet Fred (2 Units)
Tomas Berdych - 4.5 Games @ 2.00 William Hill (2 Units)
Feliciano Lopez - 2.5 Games @ 2.00 Paddy Power (2 Units)
Jack Sock - 1.5 Games @ 1.83 William Hill (2 Units)
Milos Raonic - 3.5 Games @ 2.10 Bet365 (2 Units)

Weekly Update: 1-1, - 0.18 Units (4 Units Staked, - 4.5% Yield)