NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks 2023- Games 1-4 (May 16-23)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Finals Picks- Games 1-4

Three years ago most people believed the NBA Bubble was not a true reflection of how the NBA PlayOffs would have shaped up with all of the games played without fans and on neutral courts.

Travelling and having to win games in tough road environments makes and breaks teams and most look back dismissively on that time.

You can understand why, but in 2023 the same four teams that played and competed in the Conference Finals inside the NBA Bubble are back in the final four with the Boston Celtics, Miami Heat, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers making it through the first two Rounds of the post-season.

I credit all four teams and I think the successes the Heat and Lakers have had will intensify the Play In Tournament going forward after both have become the first teams to come through that new feature of the post-season and win one, and now two, Series in the PlayOffs.

As a New York Knicks fan I am disappointed that an opportunity has been missed to reach the Conference Finals, but these four teams deserve the spotlight and should make for a couple of solid Series to be played before the NBA Finals begin on June 1st.

The Western Conference will get to go first and the first four games of both Series will be featured in this thread.

It has been a very productive NBA PlayOffs for the Picks this season and I will be looking to build on that in the days left with the 2023 winding down.

Tuesday 16th May

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 1 Pick: Revenge will be spoken about around the Denver Nuggets who were beaten by the Los Angeles Lakers in the NBA Bubble in what was the Western Conference Finals in 2020. That is not on the mind of the players, even though four of that roster are still with the Nuggets, but instead the focus is still to help the Denver Nuggets reach their first ever NBA Finals and then a first ever NBA Championship.

There is so much to like about the construction of this Denver roster with the depth that will be tough for any team to overcome over a best of seven Series. They have largely been pretty comfortable during the first two Rounds of the PlayOffs and the Nuggets will feel that earning the Number 1 Seed in the Conference has been a huge boost considering how good they have been at home all season.

These teams have split four games in the regular season, but Denver have been quick to point out that the Los Angeles Lakers are a much changed team now.

LeBron James and Anthony Davis are still around from the 2020 Championship team, but this is a considerably different roster make up compared with the one the Nuggets saw in their last meeting with the Lakers in January. Since the trades were made, the Los Angeles Lakers have been much better than their Number 7 Seed and having to come through the Play In Tournament would suggest and upset wins over the Memphis Grizzlies and Golden State Warriors means they are afforded a lot of respect.

The key to those Series wins has been winning Game 1 on the road and then holding serve when those Series have shifted back to Los Angeles. There is no doubt that the Lakers will feel they can win one of the two tough games to open up in Denver, but the Nuggets are well rested and they have been very strong at home throughout this PlayOff run.

I do like the way Denver can match up with Los Angeles and they are much more balanced Offensively than the Grizzlies and Warriors. Jamal Murray has been listed as Questionable for the home team, but I would be surprised if he is not suited up and this is a Nuggets team that is capable of lighting up the scoreboard both inside the paint and from the distance.

The battle between Nikola Jokic and Anthony Davis on both ends of the court are going to be key, but the Lakers, like the Phoenix Suns, are not a team that will have the same kind of impact from the three point range as the Denver Nuggets. The Lakers do have more depth than the Suns, or so it feels like, but this Denver team have to be given a lot more respect than I have seen so far this season and the Number 1 Seed can make a statement.

Home teams have tended to open the Conference Finals in strong form and they are 5-1 against the spread in the last six tries in Game 1. This is a big spread considering the stage we have reached in the NBA PlayOffs, but the Nuggets have shown they can cover the mark, while the Lakers have tended to be well beaten when they have dropped games in the post-season.

Again, I hate opposing LeBron James and what he can do and this is a player who will be looking to cement his legacy as perhaps the best player of all time if he can help take this Lakers team to the Championship. The pressure is on the Denver Nuggets as they have made it clear that it is Championship or bust as far as their own expectations are concerned, but the Nuggets have shown they can handle that so far and I do think the depth of their team will be key.

The role players have really been good at home in this post-season run and I will back the Denver Nuggets to maintain the recent trend of home teams in Game 1 of the Conference Finals and to win and cover.

Number 1 Seeds have tended to prove their worth when asked to cover big marks in the Conference Finals in recent years and I think the Denver Nuggets will do that to open the Western Conference Finals in 2023.

Wednesday 17th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 1 Pick: Getting through tough spots has become the norm for this Boston Celtics team and winning a Game 7 in the PlayOffs is something this team has done three times over the last two seasons. The latest was in the Conference Semi Final Series against the Philadelphia 76ers as the Boston Celtics recovered from dropping Game 5 at home to win two straight and move through in seven games.

For the third time in four seasons, the Boston Celtics are facing the Miami Heat in the Eastern Conference Finals after the latter beat the New York Knicks in six games and earned themselves a couple of extra days of rest.

These could be important with Jimmy Butler banged up in the Conference Semi Final Series and with the Miami Heat already short-handed through injury. The Heat won the Conference Finals played against the Boston Celtics in the NBA Bubble in six games, but the Celtics were able to get the better of Miami in seven games twelve months ago.

Most will have Boston down as a strong favourite to win this Series as the Number 2 Seed in the Eastern Conference compared with the Miami Heat, who are the first Number 8 Seed to reach the Conference Finals since 1999 when the New York Knicks were able to do that.

I can understand why the Boston Celtics are favoured considering they have shown more consistency than the Miami Heat on both sides of the court through the season, but the PlayOffs are a different beat. Add in the fact that the regular season series was split two each with both winning one game on the road and I do think the Miami Heat have to be respected, especially as they are plenty experienced of playing in these big games and as much as the Boston Celtics.

However, over the course of seven games I would think the Celtics have the depth and the three point shooting that will ultimately see them prevail.

Game 1 may offer the Miami Heat the best chance to steal home court advantage from the Celtics though and that is because teams playing after a Game 7 win in a PlayOff Series have continued to struggle in the opening of the next Series. The Golden State Warriors were beaten in that situation in the Conference Semi Final Series and I do think the Miami Heat are perhaps being disrespected with the opening line and will have certainly been using that to motivate them.

I am backing the Denver Nuggets as a big home favourite, one of more than 5 points, but those teams have struggled to cover in the Conference Finals and this time I am opposing the Celtics who are laying 8 points.

Overall Boston are the superior team in my opinion, but the Miami Heat could cover in a losing effort with the amount of points they are being given and they are 13-5 against the spread in their last eighteen games in Boston. The Heat covered as a home favourite to open the Eastern Conference Finals last year against the Boston Celtics, but this time I am looking for the Heat to produce enough Offensively to stay with an opponent who have invested a lot of effort to win two games in a row to reach the Conference Finals for a second year in succession.

Thursday 18th May

Los Angeles Lakers @ Denver Nuggets Game 2 Pick: The Denver Nuggets have taken Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals so will clearly be pleased with how the opening game went, but the Los Angeles Lakers may have taken something positive from the second half performance. Adjustments made saw the Lakers fight back from a 21 point deficit and actually come very close to stealing Game 1 on the road, although ultimately they did come up slightly short in a game where they led just once when scoring the first bucket of the Finals.

The positive second half will give the Lakers something to hold onto, although LeBron James made it clear that they cannot afford to fall into a big hole as they did in Game 1. Moving Anthony Davis away from guarding Nikola Jokic seemed to help stiffen the Lakers Defensive unit and I expect the move to a bigger line up to occur very quickly in Game 2 starts as the first one did.

In fact it may be an adjustment that sees the Lakers begin with a new starting five, although they will also have to accept the fact that they may not be able to improve Offensively. In Game 1 the Lakers hit 55% of their field goals, and were an impressive 46% from the three point range, but that is a number which is considerably higher than what would be expected from them.

Lonnie Walker IV, Dennis Schroeder and Austin Reaves combined for 9/15 from the three point range and that is a mark that will be difficult to replicate on the road for a second game in a row. Add in the fact that some of the Nuggets were struggling with fouls piling up and I think those players were afforded a bit more space than expected and Game 2 might see those role players slow down.

The Nuggets may also be expected to have a step back in terms of their shooting having also shot 55% from the field and 47% from the three point arc. However, they have shown throughout this PlayOffs run that they are very good at home and I certainly think Denver can maintain their edge on the boards, which should see them beat the Lakers for a second time in this Western Conference Finals.

Thanks to their Fourth Quarter push, the Lakers lost Game 1 by just 6 points, but close losses have not made for good opportunities to bounce back and cover in the next game in the Conference Finals, especially when teams are playing on the road. Those losing by 10 or fewer points and then playing on the road are on a poor 4-9 run against the spread, while the Denver Nuggets will want to back up the fact that teams that won Game 1 at home are 6-4 against the spread in Game 2.

Los Angeles have won Game 1 on the road in both of the previous two PlayOff Series, but they have been blown out in Game 2 and I think the Denver Nuggets have a more consistent approach at home which sees them cover in this one.

Friday 19th May

Miami Heat @ Boston Celtics Game 2 Pick: After building a decent lead at the end of the first half, the Boston Celtics looked to be making a mockery of the long trend of how much Game 7 winners have struggled in the opening game of the next Series in the NBA PlayOffs.

Some will suggest it was complacency, others may suggest a bit of mental fatigue, but for whatever reason, the Boston Celtics played a shocking Third Quarter and ultimately were not able to turn the momentum back in their favour.

It means dropping Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals and Head Coach Joe Mazzulla will have had to accept the criticisms of his team, even if he has not completely agreed with it. The Coach is right when he says Boston won three of the four Quarters played, but the Celtics were so bad in the Third Quarter that they dug themselves into a deep hole and one they were not able to escape.

Adjustments will be made by the Celtics who have been a big three point shooting team, but who only threw up the deep ball twenty-nine times in Game 1. They dominated the points in the paint in the first half to build a big lead, but the Celtics are a team that have a number of quality three point shooters and this has been the successful plan, while I am sure the team will be looking to get Jayson Tatum going after their star player failed to have any sort of positive impact in the Fourth Quarter.

A lot of the focus has been on the Boston Celtics as the higher Seed, but it remains clear that the Miami Heat feel disrespected and are using that to fuel them in the post-season. I have no doubt that the Heat players will have checked the lines set for the opening two games of the Eastern Conference Finals and will be looking to make a point with their hard nose basketball and veteran experience.

Jimmy Butler has been a consistent Offensive player in the post-season, but you do have to wonder if Miami can be as efficient shooting the three ball as they were in Game 1. In stealing home court, the Heat hit 52% of their three pointers, but this is a team that have averaged just 34% from that distance over the course of the season and you have to believe the role players will not be as hot from the field when going into Game 2.

Miami have shown energy and have rarely gone away easily, which makes this line feel a wide one, but I do think the Boston Celtics will have a reaction and I expect more out of Jayson Tatum and the bench.

The Heat do have a very good record in Boston in recent years as I mentioned in the Game 1 Pick, but the zigzag theory has been one that has been plenty successful in the NBA Conference Finals.

I backed the Heat a couple of days ago, but I am expecting the Boston Celtics to have a much stronger day from the three point line. At some stage the Miami Heat may feel they have already achieved what they have wanted by splitting the first two games in Boston and they could just lose some of the intensity before heading back home this weekend and I am going to back the Celtics to bounce back with a big win.

Saturday 20th May

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 3 Pick: The narrative after Game 1 was about how the Los Angeles Lakers had found a good system to deal with the Denver Nuggets and that clearly did not sit very well with the Number 1 Seed in the Western Conference.

The late rally saw the Lakers recover from a big hole, but they still fell short and ultimately dropped to 0-1 in the Series.

Some will have felt justified in believing the Lakers had found a good formula when they led in Game 2, but this time the Denver Nuggets were the team who fought back in the Fourth Quarter. The big difference- the Nuggets won Game 2 to take a 2-0 lead in the Western Conference Finals and it was clear that all of the talk of the previous two days had bothered Denver Head Coach Michael Malone.

A 2-0 lead is a good lead, but this is not a decisive won and I think the Los Angeles Lakers have to feel confident when returning home where they have been very strong in the NBA PlayOffs.

However, I do have to wonder if the schedule is going to work against the Lakers with the veteran stars Anthony Davis and LeBron James looking a little tired at times in Game 2. It was Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura who combined for 16/29 in Game 2 and they were 6/11 from the three point range in Game 2, but the Lakers will need more from their top two players if they are going to find a way to get back into the Western Conference Finals.

The Nuggets did not get a good game out of Jamal Murray in Game 2, but some late buckets might have rebuilt his confidence and the depth of the Denver team is hard to ignore.

At the same time I do think their role players have struggled to make the same impact on the road as they have at home and that should be encouraging for the Lakers as Game 3 is played in the City of Angels.

However, I do think that depth and some of the efforts that the Lakers have already put into this Series will mean another close game between these teams.

Teams that are 0-2 down in the Conference Finals are on a very good run of covering in Game 3, but I was anticipating the Lakers being a much smaller favourite than they are for this one.

The oddsmakers know the money will come down on Los Angeles, especially in their desperate position, but I think the Denver Nuggets will find enough scoring to keep this one close.

A 3-8 record against the spread for teams leading 2-0 in the Conference Finals is a concern, but the Nuggets have shown they have the consistency to not only stay with the Lakers, but to beat them. Winning in Game 3 won't be easy, but the Nuggets can avoid the blowout at the very least and this could be another game in this Series that comes down to the final two minutes of the Fourth Quarter.

Sunday 21st May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 3 Pick: Poor decision making and key players being far too quiet in the Fourth Quarter have put the Boston Celtics in an unenviable position in the Eastern Conference Finals. Losing Game 1 would have hurt, but they blew a couple of big leads and allowed Jimmy Butler to take over the final six minutes of the Fourth Quarter in Game 2 and that means the Celtics have dropped both home games to the Miami Heat.

Even now the Boston Celtics are considered favourites to come out of this Series, but there is a lot of pressure on the shoulders of the players.

Some will want to blame Grant Williams for talking trash to Jimmy Butler which seemed to intensify the performance of the latter, but I think much more needs to be made of Jayson Tatum's failure to have an impact in the Fourth Quarter for a second game in a row. There has to be a worry that he left something on the court when producing a big Fourth Quarter in Game 6 and then a huge Game 7 in the Second Round win over the Philadelphia 76ers, but the Celtics know they need Tatum if they are going to beat this hard nosed Miami team.

It is somewhat surprising to see the Celtics down as the road favourite, especially as the Miami Heat have beaten them in a couple of different ways- Game 1 was about the efficiency of the shooting, but Game 2 saw the Heat dominate the boards and that was good enough to earn enough second chance points to make up for the drop off in the three point shooting percentages.

A big problem for Boston has been the struggles with their own three point shooting. They will also know that Jayson Tatum has to do more in the Fourth Quarter even if his overall numbers have been steady enough in the first two games.

He would be helped if some of the role players can improve their own output, but nothing is going to come easy against this Miami Heat team that look to be playing with a confidence that will be very difficult to shake.

Being back at home is a big help for the Miami Heat who have won all five PlayOff games here and largely in blowout fashion.

They have also won four in a row against the Boston Celtics this season and I won't be that surprised to see people taking the points with the home team.

Road favourites of less than 5 points have not had a very good record at covering the spread in the Conference Finals and that is the situation facing Boston, although it should be noted that those teams were 2-0 against the spread last season.

More importantly is that teams in a 2-0 lead in the Conference Finals are just 3-8 against the spread in the last eleven occasions where that situation has been played out. The Nuggets are in the same boat on Saturday and I have looked for them to cover, but I think the Miami Heat have not dominated the first two games and you have to believe more is to come from the Boston Celtics.

This is a big moment for the Celtics, who should have won at least one of the first two games and might even believe they should be the team with a 2-0 lead. They are an experienced group who know what needs to be done if they are going become NBA Champions and I think we see a reaction to the drama around them as the Celtics get back into the Eastern Conference Finals.

Monday 22nd May

Denver Nuggets @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 4 Pick: You have to feel that the back of the Western Conference Finals has been broken with the Denver Nuggets moving into a 3-0 lead against the Los Angeles Lakers. There have been moments from the Lakers, who have shown fight and desire, but the depth of the Denver Nuggets is proving too much and their spacing with Nikola Jokic means the three point shooters are finding open looks and knocking them down.

It wasn't The Joker who should be credited for the Game 3 win, but Jamal Murray stepped up to pile up 37 points and make up for what he felt was a below par effort in Game 2.

Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray are the keys for the Nuggets as they are on the brink of making their first ever appearance in the NBA Finals, but the role players and the bench have made timely impacts throughout the PlayOffs run and this Denver team is going to be very difficult shake off.

No one is giving it up on the Los Angeles Lakers side, but you do have to wonder how much they have left having looked clearly second best in the Western Conference Finals. Austin Reaves has to be given a lot of credit for giving the Lakers a third option alongside LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but Los Angeles cannot make enough Defensive stops and ultimately have not found enough from the likes of D'Angelo Russell and Jarred Vanderbilt.

Game 4 is on their home court and you have to believe the Lakers are going to put in a big effort to try and at least force the Denver Nuggets to close the Series at home.

However, it should be noted that teams facing elimination this early in the Conference Finals are just 2-4 outright and 2-3-1 against the spread in the last six when in this situation. It has to be a worry for Lakers backers as the home favourite considering how they have just struggled to keep up with the depth of the Nuggets and I would lean with taking the points in Game 4, although the spread has come down a couple of points from where the layers had left the mark in Game 3.

One trend that has been evident in elimination games at this stage of the Conference Finals is that teams facing the end of the season have allowed an average of 118 points per game in the last five when in this situation. This is a Series that has seen two of the three games played finish above the total points mark set and I do think the Los Angeles Lakers are going to have to hoist up plenty of three pointers to keep up with the Denver Nuggets.

The road team hit seventeen from the distance in Game 3 and at a 41% clip, and Denver have managed at least fourteen from beyond the three point mark in each game of the Western Conference Finals. Los Angeles were very efficient from the three point mark in Game 1, but have hoisted up at least thirty in the last two games without the same level of success and I do think the formula to extend this Series is finding someone to get going from the distance.

LeBron James has really struggled to do that, but the Lakers need scoring if they are going to find a way to win this one and I think that will encourage another high-scoring game with both teams expected to combine to cover the line set.

Tuesday 23rd May

Boston Celtics @ Miami Heat Game 4 Pick: There are going to be plenty of incriminations thrown around at the end of the Eastern Conference Finals with the Boston Celtics wondering how things have gone as wrong as they have. Despite the money flooding on the Celtics in Game 3, the Boston players seemingly thought they were just going through the motions of a regular season game as they offered a listless display that has left them in a 3-0 hole.

That means both Conference Finals could be concluded as soon as the 23rd May, meaning we will have two full weeks before the NBA Finals are set to start.

The Denver Nuggets will be looking to close the show on Monday when playing Game 4 against the Los Angeles Lakers, but they are on the road and the Miami Heat are at home.

A lot of people have suggested this is the most even NBA season we have seen in a long time and the Miami Heat reaching the Eastern Conference Finals and moving to the brink of the NBA Finals have backed up those who have believed that to be the case. The Number 8 Seed in the East needed some big buckets deep into the Fourth Quarter of their win over the Chicago Bulls in the final Play In Tournament game, but the Heat have dominated the top two Seeds in the East in the PlayOffs and have won seven of the eight games played against the Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks.

An experienced team that reached the NBA Finals in 2020, the Miami Heat have dominated this Series and led from whistle to whistle in Game 3. In saying that, the Boston Celtics did have their chances in the first two games, although those opportunities missed seem to have deflated the players and it is going to take a monumental effort to bring this one home.

As I have mentioned in the Denver Game 4 preview, teams facing elimination this early in the Conference Finals have tended to lose and it is hard to make a case for the Boston Celtics after what we saw a couple of nights ago. They cannot make stops Defensively, while the Offensive game plan has looked messy to say the least and it has meant Boston are going to need to make NBA history by becoming the first team to win a best of seven Series from 0-3 down.

It has happened in the other US Sports that have these PlayOff Series to decide the Champion at the end of the season, but the NBA has been the exception and I do think Boston are lost.

Miami will continue doing what they are- even double teaming Jimmy Butler is unlikely to work as we saw in Game 3 with the Miami shooters playing with a confidence that will be tough to contain.

Instead of picking a side with the Heat favoured for the first time in the Eastern Conference Finals, I will go back to the same trend that I mentioned for the Nuggets-Lakers Game 4 and that is how porous teams facing elimination have been.

The team in a 3-0 lead have averaged 118 points per game in Game 4 of the Conference Finals in recent times in this situation and the Celtics have allowed Miami to do what they want Offensively.

It has led to the Heat averaging 120 points per game in the Eastern Conference Finals, while the Boston Celtics have hit triple digits in all three games too.

With the total line where it is, I will look for Game 4 to surpass the number set with both teams likely to put up strong Offensive stats again.

MY PICKS: 16/05 Denver Nuggets - 6 Points @ 1.91 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

17/05 Miami Heat + 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

18/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

19/05 Boston Celtics - 9 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

20/05 Denver Nuggets + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

21/05 Boston Celtics - 3 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

22/05 Los Angeles Lakers-Denver Nuggets Over 224.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

23/05 Miami Heat-Boston Celtics Over 216 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Conference Finals Update: 2-5-1, - 3.18 Units (8 Units Staked, - 39.75% Yield)

Semi Final: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

PlayOffs 2023: 36-17-1, + 15.94 Units (54 Units Staked, + 29.52% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Rolando Romero vs Ismael Barroso (May 13th)

There are plenty of big weekends of Boxing coming up over the next couple of months, but this feels like one of the quieter ones even though there are some World Titles on the line.

Next week will see card headlined by a genuine Undisputed World Title fight at Lightweight, but this week there is a World Champion defending his Middleweight crown and then a vacant Light-Welterweight crown to be handed out.

Last time out the main card that Boxing fans would have been tuning in for was the return of Canelo Alvarez and he won a comfortable Decision over John Ryder. However, you do have to feel that Canelo has definitely lost a step in the ring and his chase to have the rematch with Dmitry Bivol at 175 pounds looks like it will end the same way the original fight did last year.

The scorecards were close enough on that day to suggest that a slightly harder working performance from Canelo Alvarez could see him on the right end of some 'home cooking' if they are going to have a rematch, but at the moment the sticking point seems to be the weight. While Canelo wants to go back in for a Light Heavyweight World Title bid, Dmitry Bivol feels like the bigger motivation for him would be to go down to Super Middleweight and challenge for the Undisputed World Titles held by the Mexican superstar.

I do think money will talk at the end and they will meet in September, and Dmitry Bivol is likely to head into the bout as a big favourite too.

Another fighter that returned last week is Joshua Buatsi and he won a Decision after spending twelve months out of the ring. While he did not make excuses, I do think ring rust affected Buatsi and it might be a performance that tempts some of the big names at Light Heavyweight into the ring with him.

Anthony Yarde has to be the fight to make with the World Titles held up, but I think Joshua Buatsi's new promoters would rather get him out again quickly in the summer before pushing for the mandatory against the winner of the Artur Beterbiev-Callum Smith WBC World Title fight which is also set to be placed in the calendar within the next three months.

Dan Azeez is a potential 'in house' option for a fight in the summer, and there are other options out there as Buatsi looks to get his career back on track.

The Picks had a mixed week last time out, but it was much of a muchness at the end of the weekend's fight card.

I feel one or two of the Picks last week were unfortunate losers, but a couple of solid winners effectively erased those and meant the slightest of losses on the week.

Despite that, I expect better from the selections and will be looking to regain some of the momentum that might have been slowed after last weekend.

Rolando Romero vs Ismael Barroso

The fracture of the World Titles in the Light Welterweight Division over the last ten months has led to a number of new faces holding those belts.

Next month the Lineal Champion Josh Taylor is back to defend the last of those Belts that he has been able to keep after becoming Undisputed Champion, but the likes of Regis Prograis, Subriel Matias and Alberto Puello have become World Champions in the Division.

Well that was the case until just a few days ago when Alberto Puello was stripped of his WBA World Title after failing a drugs test a few weeks ago. Originally Puello was allowed to keep hold of the Belt and his scheduled opponent, Rolando Romero, was set to fight for the Interim World Title.

That has changed now and this is now for the full World Title, even if some have complained that his opponent, Ismael Barroso, has been given this opportunity.

Rolly Romero has made it clear that if people are complaining they should not be watching and becoming a World Champion after losing his last fight to Gervonta Davis will be a huge bounce back effort from the American.

You can understand the frustrations of some of the fans that someone like Ismael Barroso is in this position considering he is not Ranked by any of the other governing bodies. At 40 years old, Barroso has clearly enjoyed his best days even if he has won four fights in a row since losing back to back bouts.

Stoppage defeats to Anthony Crolla in 2016 and Botirzhon Akhmedov in 2018 should have really ended Ismael Barroso's time at the top, while four wins since March 2019 is hardly indication of an active fighter.

His younger opponent has won fourteen fights and twelve of those have been in Stoppages, although Rolly Romero has to show he has recovered from a big Knock Out defeat to Gervonta Davis. In fairness to Romero, it was a competitive fight with Davis before the Sixth Round defeat and it is a bout that he wants to avenge, but the focus has to be on winning this World Title which will then open up some big opportunities for him in both the Lightweight and Light Welterweight Divisions.

I think Rolando Romero will work through the gears in this World Title fight and I do think he will eventually find the angles to break down the veteran southpaw. His last two Stoppage wins have both been in the Seventh Round and I do think he can wear down Ismael Barroso in the second half of this fight as the pressure and power of the younger fighter shines through.

The expectation is that Rolando Romero will call for the rematch with Gervonta Davis, but holding a World Title will see him involved in some big fights in the months ahead. He should win and I think Romero will do enough to get either the referee or corner to step in against an opponent who has been hurt to the body in his younger days.

I've already mentioned Botirzhon Akhmedov in relation to his win over Ismael Barroso and I am not surprised that he is a little perturbed to not have been offered this World Title shot instead.

He will be waiting some time with the winner of the main event already ordered to defend the Belt against Ohara Davies, but Akhmedov has to keep winning.

I am surprised he is the underdog against Kenneth Sims Jr in what is a crossroads fight and that is mainly because I do think Botirzhon Akhmedov has been in with a higher level of opponent.

The Split Decision loss to Alberto Puello and the Unanimous Decision to defeat to Mario Barrios are the only dents in his record and I just think Akhmedov can outwork and land the heavier shots to come away with the victory.

I am also expecting Rances Barthelemy to win his own crossroads fight with Omar Juarez as he bounces back from the defeat to Gary Antuanne Russell and give the veteran one more shot at getting into a position for a World Title bid in what is an open Light Welterweight Division.

There are other cards going out this weekend and one is headlined by Janibek Alimkhanuly who is defending his WBO Middleweight World Title as he looks to make it fourteen unbeaten.

The Champion looked pretty ordinary in his win over Denzel Bentley (although I would like to give Bentley more credit than that), but Alimkhanuly still believes he is being 'ducked' by the big names at 160 pounds.

All credit has to be given to Steven Butler for taking the opportunity to challenge for a World Title, but he has lost three times and all three by Stoppage. Two of those were a definite step up in level and that is what Butler is going to be facing on Saturday against a hard hitting World Champion.

I do think Janibek Alimkhanuly will want to end this fight quicker than Ryoto Murata was able to do against Steven Butler as he looks to call out some big names, but I think Alimkhanuly will have to bide his time and break down his opponent.

Backing the Champion to secure a mid-Round finish looks about right as he warms into his task and breaks down Steven Butler around the Sixth Round.

On Friday evening Queensberry Promotions are broadcasting an event from York Hall headed up by a European Cruiserweight contest between Ellis Zorro and Hosea Burton.

You have to believe the favourite has been set up to continue his unbeaten run and show another step in his progression, but Zorro will know this is going to be a tough test against Hosea Burton. The experience edge is with Burton having fought for British and European honours at the Light Heavyweight limit, although he did come up short more often than not.

Ellis Zorro has not been beyond Eight Rounds as a professional and so he will be tested in this scheduled Ten Rounder as he steps up his level of opponent.

We have Karol Itauma returning after a stunning defeat at Wembley Arena back in January and he should be a comfortable winner as long as there are not any mental demons lingering.

Losing is one thing, but the way Itauma was Stopped by Ezequiel Maderna will have had an impact on the young fighter and I am expecting a somewhat cautious return. He is not fighting a puncher, but Khalid Graidia might be stubborn enough to stick around for a few Rounds as Karol Itauma warms back to his task as a professional.

Once the confidence is restored, Karol Itauma may be able to get Graidia out of the there in the second half of the scheduled Eight Rounder and become the second man to Stop this opponent.

Talking of Ezequiel Maderna, he will be defending the WBC International Light Heavyweight Title won against Karol Itauma on the undercard on Friday evening. This time he takes on Willy Hutchinson who has won two in a row since an upset defeat of his own against Lennox Clarke.

That defeat came in the Super Middleweight Division and Hutchinson has earned a couple of early wins in his move up to Light Heavyweight.

Respect for Ezequiel Maderna will be easy considering what we all saw in January, but it also should be remembered why the Argentinian had been brought over to face Karol Itauma.

He has suffered ten career defeats and Maderna is someway removed from when he challenged Artur Beterbiev in a Four Round loss in 2016. More recently he had been Stopped in three of his previous seven fights before the upset over Itauma and while he is a dangerous, come forward fighter, Ezequiel Maderna is also pretty open which has to be hugely encouraging for a heavy hitting Willy Hutchinson.

The performance back in January could have spooked Willy Hutchinson a little bit and he may not want to exchange having been Stopped before by someone who has not been considered a big power puncher. However, I do think Hutchinson has been happier at this weight and Maderna's style could see the British fighter make a big statement with an early win.

There is also a bout in South Africa of some note on Saturday that is of interest and that is the return of Kevin Lerena for the first time his firefight with Daniel Dubois at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium in December.

He was one or two big punches away from landing a huge Heavyweight upset, but Lerena is struggling to decide at which weight he really wants to operate.

This is a Bridgerweight fight that could see the winner set up to face Lukasz Rozanski who crushed Alen Babic to become the World Champion.

Kevin Lerena will not want to overlook Ryad Mehry who has an impressive record, although against a pretty basic set of opponents.

He was Stopped the one time he did step up and I think Mehry could be put to the sword by Lerena who has found more pop on his shots since moving out of the Cruiserweight Division and I think the home fighter could land enough to end this one inside the distance.

MY PICKS: Rolando Romero to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.75 William Hill (2 Units)

Botirzhon Akhmedov to Win @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Rances Barthelemy to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.25 Bet365 (2 Units)

Janibek Alimkhanuly to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.00 Coral (2 Units)

Karol Itauma to Win Between 5-8 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Willy Hutchinson to Win Between 1-5 @ 4.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Kevin Lerena to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 3.50 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 22-32, - 2.22 Units (103 Units Staked, - 2.16% Yield)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Picks 2023- Games 5-7 (May 9-15)

NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Finals Picks- Games 5-7

It has already been a memorable run of games in the NBA PlayOffs Conference Semi Final Series and we have a couple of definite Game 6's to be played later this week.

Surprisingly the Series between the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors and the Eastern Conference Series between the New York Knicks and Miami Heat have seen the lower Seed move into a 3-1 lead through four games. I would still not dismiss the chances of the Warriors to fight back and force a Game 7, but the Knicks need to get something going after blowing big opportunities to steal Game 4 on the road on Monday evening.

The other two Series are both tied at 2-2 after four games and those will take centre stage on Tuesday with a pivotal Game 5 to be played in Boston and Denver. The winner of those Series are likely going to be the strong favourite to reach the NBA Finals that begin in early June.

A strong start for the NBA Picks in this Round have slowed down in the last few days so I am looking for a bounce back from those as much as some of the teams dropping Game 4 will be. The numbers are still in a positive position, but reversing the negative trend is important.

Tuesday 9th May

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 5 Pick: A huge effort from James Harden saw the Philadelphia 76ers earn a win over the Boston Celtics in Game 1 without Joel Embiid in the starting line up. He had not been shooting the same way in Game 2 and 3 with Embiid back alongside him, but James Harden poured in 42 points in Game 4, including the game winning three pointer in Overtime, and the 76ers will be feeling like they are very much in this Series.

A slight delay from Marcus Smart meant his buzzer beating three pointer left his hand just after the game had finished and the defeat in Game 4 will have bothered the Boston Celtics who looked to have the momentum behind them after coming back from losing the opening game of the Series to then lead 2-1.

Heading back home at 2-2 will be of some disappointment to the Celtics, but they remain the favourites to return to the Eastern Conference Finals. However, Boston know they will need to be a little better all around if they are going to win Game 5 and move back in front of the Philadelphia 76ers having played very loose Defensive Basketball until the Fourth Quarter of Game 4 on the road.

They did hold the 76ers to just 24 points in the final 17 minutes of Game 4, but Boston had gotten themselves into a significant hole through the first three Quarters and ultimately that proved to be costly to them on the day.

Joel Embiid had a big game last time out to complement James Harden, but it does feel this Series is going to come down to how hot Harden can stay on the court. James Harden had 45 points in Game 1 and 42 points in the last game, but the middle two outings saw him produce a combined 28 points and both of those ended up in double digit defeats for the 76ers.

Adjustments will be made by Boston and some of those were seen through the final Quarter and Overtime in Game 4, while the Celtics are still looking for a really big day from the three point arc. They have been consistent shooting from that range and will continue to shoot a lot of three pointers, but the Celtics have to believe they can dominate the remainder of this Series if they can just find a bit more efficiency shooting the ball.

Al Horford has been up and down, but Jayson Tatum is likely to be a lot better than Game 4 and I still believe the Boston Celtics are the team to beat in the East.

Big home favourites have not had a very good time covering in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, while Game 5 home favourites are on a poor run of 15-20 against the spread over the last ten years. Those drop to 9-15 against the spread when favoured by more than 5.5 points as the Celtics are on Tuesday, but I do think Boston will bounce back from the defeat in Game 4.

It was a tight game that would have taken something away from the 76ers even with a win on the board and I do think Boston have shown they can find a way to close down James Harden. All credit has to be given to Harden for stepping up in Game 4, but Boston at home should have more successes and I think they can be backed to cover this big mark.

Phoenix Suns @ Denver Nuggets Game 5 Pick: Chris Paul's injury looked like it could be very damaging for the Phoenix Suns, especially with the team 2-0 down in the Series. However, it seems to have sparked a lively Suns Offensive game plan with a fast tempo seemingly working to their favour as they held serve at home and return to Denver with the Series back at 2-2.

Both Kevin Durant and Devin Booker have really thrived at home, but playing that kind of speed of Basketball could be much tougher in the altitude of Mile High as the Series moves back to Denver. That is certainly something the Nuggets fans will be clinging onto having wasted a huge effort from Nikola Jokic in Game 4 as the Denver Defensive unit struggled to contain the top two options for the Suns and were then hurt by Landry Shamet's performance from the bench.

With Booker showing some very high efficiency in his shooting, it has helped the Suns just open up their three point looks and they have been much better in the two games at home than they were in the two games played here.

In Game 1 and 2 the Suns combined for 13/54 from the three point range (24%), but they have pushed that to 22/57 (38%) in the two games at home. The Nuggets know they need to make some Defensive adjustments having felt they have underperformed in Game 3 and 4 after strong showings to open the Series, but Denver have been much stronger at home this season and I do think that plays a part in the outcome of this Conference Semi Final.

As we have seen time and time again in the NBA PlayOffs, role players tend to be better at home and I do expect to see a bounce back from players not called Nikola Jokic and Jamal Murray when this Series shifts back to Denver. The Nuggets have maintained a solid, if unspectacular, success rate from the three point range and they have been pretty efficient shooting the ball too, but the key will be to show improved Defensive intensity to try and cool down the top two names on the Suns roster.

I do think they can do that at home after a couple of below par efforts and I am expecting a response from the Nuggets in what has been a really good Series so far.

You can never discount Devin Booker and the experience of Kevin Durant has shown this is a player who will step up in the big moments, but I still think the overall depth of the Denver Nuggets can play a part in determining the outcome of the Series. I expect the Defensive intensity to be ramped up at home and I do think those role players in the starting line up and coming off the bench will step up as the Nuggets look to return to Phoenix later this week with just one more win needed to clinch a spot in the Western Conference Finals.

I have mentioned that big home favourites have struggled in Game 5 of the Conference Semi Final Series in recent years, but Denver have beaten the Suns pretty well in both home games in this Series. As long as they can weather an early storm from the team with momentum behind them, the Nuggets can move through the gears in the second half and secure the win and cover to edge ahead in the Series.

Wednesday 10th May

Miami Heat @ New York Knicks Game 5 Pick: There has been a lot of noise around the New York Knicks since the end of Game 4 as they fell into a 3-1 hole against the Miami Heat. The blowout loss in Game 3 would have hurt, but the Knicks were a lot more competitive in the main in Game 4 and there is a feeling that they missed a big opportunity to win the game and level the Conference Semi Final Series.

It is not going to be easy for the players to dig in and try and force a Game 6, but they are back in The Garden and the home fans will try and get behind the New York Knicks.

They made some solid adjustments in Game 4 and shot the ball much better than they had in the previous game, but the Knicks were undone by turnovers and then an embarrassingly poor performance on the glass in the Fourth Quarter. A number of Offensive rebounds helped the poor shooting Miami Heat to just keep clear of the Knicks and that proved to be the difference with some key rebounding making the difference when the game seemed to be in the balance.

Julius Randle has been taking the brunt of the criticism from the New York Knicks fans- another poor PlayOff showing has just underlined the feeling that Randle is not someone that can really be trusted in key moments and there are one or two reports that the player and Tom Thibodeau had a disagreement after Game 4.

Suggesting that the Knicks 'don't want it' as much as the Miami Heat will not have made things easier for Julius Randle and he has to start this game with more intensity and personal responsibility.

The Knicks will need him to find his shooting too if they are going to get back into this Series.

Poor officiating frustrated the Knicks in Game 4, but they did play some solid Defense if you ignore the amount of Offensive boards allowed in the Fourth Quarter. This has been a feature of this Series with the Miami Heat getting to the Free Throw line to just get the Offensive unit ticking over, while they have made some big shots from the three point arc at key times throughout the four games played.

Some will feel the Heat have broken the back of the Series by holding firm in the two games played at home, but I think the Knicks may have at least one big effort left in them.

Teams playing in Game 5 after losing the previous game by at least 7 points have been on a very good run at covering the spread and I do think the Knicks will better in the columns of rebounding and turnovers. The shooting has been inconsistent over the last couple of weeks, but I think the Knicks can find the energy from the stands to at least head back to South Florida with one more chance to win a game on the road.

Los Angeles Lakers @ Golden State Warriors Game 5 Pick: There will be some real disappointment with the way the final moments of Game 4 went for the defending Champions Golden State Warriors and they are in a 1-3 hole in the Conference Semi Final Series. The team had more than one or two chances to win the game on the road at the Los Angeles Lakers, but some poor shooting and an inability to stop Lonnie Walker IV from having a career day in the Fourth Quarter proved to be the undoing of the Golden State Warriors.

Walker IV became the first Laker to score at least 15 points in the Fourth Quarter of the PlayOffs since Kobe Bryant and it was his step up that helped the Lakers overturn a 7 point deficit at the start of the Quarter and finish up with a win by three points.

Helping out LeBron James and Anthony Davis by becoming the third scorer meant Lonnie Walker IV made the headlines on Monday and the Lakers will arrive in San Francisco looking to close the Series out.

The Warriors are not likely to go away easily and Steve Kerr has made it clear that his team just have to take it game by game from here on out. The Head Coach admitted that his team missed an opportunity in Game 4, but he will need his players to find more consistency from the three point range and a more efficient performance from Steph Curry will be very important to the outcome of Game 5 too.

He was guilty of some loose play down the stretch that proved to be decisive in the outcome of Game 4, while some of the role players are not performing to the level that helped the Warriors walk away with the NBA Championship eleven months ago.

Jordan Poole is the one facing the music, but the Warriors have been better at home and those role players can step up as they look to force a Game 6 back in Los Angeles.

However, the Warriors will have to overcome some Game 5 trends that suggest the Lakers have the momentum to take in this one and can cover with the points being given to them.

Big home favourites continue to struggle in Game 5 of the Conference Semi Finals, while you may think the narrow win for the LA Lakers in the last game will have taken something out of the tank. However, teams who have been involved in a game that finished in a 3 point margin or less are 16-8 against the spread when playing on the road in their next game and the efficiency of shooting from within the three point arc may help the Lakers keep this one close.

Thursday 11th May

Boston Celtics @ Philadelphia 76ers Game 6 Pick: It was a really poor moment to pick your time to produce one of the worst games of the season, but the Boston Celtics made far too many errors in Game 5. Those proved to be costly and the Celtics will travel to Philadelphia to take on the home team 76ers at 3-2 down in the Conference Semi Final Series.

It makes the one point loss in Overtime in Game 4 sting all the more, but the Boston Celtics will not be panicking just yet. Over the last couple of years they have become a team that have become accustomed to playing the pressurised PlayOff Basketball of being a game away from elimination, but this is going to take a big effort to bring the game back to Boston for a Game 7 this weekend.

Momentum is very much with the Philadelphia 76ers who have won two games in a row and seemed to be able to do whatever they wanted in Game 5. However, Joel Embiid will know that him and his team need to be stronger if they are going close out this elimination game and they cannot expect Boston to be as lacklustre as they were in the last outing.

Missed shots is one thing, but missing wide open looks was very surprising, while Jayson Tatum and Al Horford will need to use all of their experiences to win this game. Both put in sub-par efforts in the last game, but this is an opportunity to turn the current narrative and get the Celtics back on track as the favourites to reach the NBA Final as the Eastern Conference representative.

The Celtics were below par when it came to their three point shooting, but that was not down to a suddenly improved Philadelphia Defensive performance and much more to do with Boston missing some big, open looks.

A dominant performance on the boards gave Philadelphia a stronger edge in Game 5, while the 76ers have to be excited by what they have seen from the likes of Tobias Harris and Tyrese Maxey. It was James Harden leading the way in Game 4, but Harris and Maxey took over the lead in supporting Joel Embiid and the strong three point showing from the 76ers meant they led from whistle to whistle.

I can't ignore the momentum that is now with the 76ers, but the Boston Celtics cannot be nearly as bad as they were in the last game. I expect some of their big names to step up and find a way to force this Series back to Boston for a Game 7 as they look to extend the trend of those teams looking to close out the Semi Final Series in a Game 6 having a tough time doing so.

With elimination staring them in the face, I expect a much better performance from an intensity point of view from the Boston Celtics. It should mean much more energy around the boards and I don't think their shooters will be as poor from the field as they were in Game 5 so I will look for the Celtics to win and cover for a second time in three games in Philadelphia.

Denver Nuggets @ Phoenix Suns Game 6 Pick: All five games in this Western Conference Semi Final Series have been won by the home team and all have ended with said home team covering as a favourite.

It has left the Denver Nuggets one win away from securing a spot in the Western Conference Finals having won Game 5 at home, but there is still some serious work to get through if they are going to edge past the Phoenix Suns.

Once again the depth of the Nuggets proved to be key in Game 5 and they had four players who put up at least 19 points to win another home game. Compare that with the Phoenix Suns who had Devin Booker and Kevin Durant once again scoring big points, but had no other player score more than 14 points and that was Deandre Ayton who was also the only other player to produce double digit points for the team in losing the last game.

Role players have tended to be better on their home court in this Series, but there does seem to be a lot more pressure on the Booker and Durant pairing to make sure they are powering the Suns forward. They may receive a bit more support in this one, but the Suns have to find a way to keep the Denver bench quiet, as they have managed to do in the first two wins at home in the Series.

The Nuggets will also be looking to make some adjustments to get their three pointers going in this road environment knowing that would be a huge boost for the entire team. They hit 48% in Game 5 after three disappointing games from that range and the hope for the Number 1 Seed is having that momentum slide over in this big Game 6.

Going against the home favourite after the way this Series has developed feels wrong, but I do think the Denver Nuggets have the depth to close things out here. Closing out Series in Game 6 has been challenging for teams in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons, but the underdog is 15-6 against the spread in this important game since 2014 in this Round of the NBA PlayOffs.

Those teams have surprisingly won fourteen of the twenty-one games outright and I do think the Denver Nuggets can find enough avenues towards the buckets to cover.

Three point shooting will be key for the Nuggets, but they can use the output of Tuesday to produce enough on Thursday to cover in this one.

Chris Paul is still a doubt and that lack of support for Devin Booker and Kevin Durant may show up on their home court for the first time.

Friday 12th May

New York Knicks @ Miami Heat Game 6 Pick: Foul trouble early and a big deficit at the end of the First Quarter had some New York Knicks fans fearing the worse, but a strong opening to the Second Quarter turned Game 5 around. There were not many big adjustments made by the New York Knicks, but they were a little more ruthless when it came to the three point shooting and a strong performance on the boards proved to be very important for the Knicks as they take this Series back to Miami for one more shot at winning on the road.

The Miami Heat will have been disappointed with their own shooting having produced a 13/43 effort from the three point range and they ended up on the losing side despite having seventeen more attempts from the field.

A key difference was the officiating did not offer the Miami Heat the big advantage at getting to the Free Throw line and this time it was the Knicks who had 40 Free Throws compared with just 19 for the Heat.

It is unlikely that the Miami Heat will be panicking after losing Game 5, especially as they will feel like they were missing too many open looks from the three point range, while being at home is likely going to mean 'better' officiating which goes in favour of the Heat.

They have already beaten the Knicks twice here already in this Series and that will also give Miami plenty of confidence. One was a blowout, but Game 4 was much more competitive and it was the Heat's performance on the boards which ended up being the key to the outcome of that game that was decided by just 8 points.

The Miami Heat have not been very consistent from the three point range throughout this Series, but they have been much more level with their shooting compared with the New York Knicks.

Game 3 saw the Heat go 22% from the three point range, but they have been between 30-35% in the other four games. That is much different to the New York Knicks who have had a 38% showing and 40% showing from the three point arc in their two wins, but who have not shot the ball well at all from that distance in the other three games in the Series.

Jalen Brunson and Quentin Grimes both had to play the entirety of Game 5 and you have to have some concern about their fitness levels with just one day of rest between games.

The Heat's depth feels like it is going to be key, but closing out Conference Semi Final Series in Game 6 has been challenging for teams who are favoured like the Miami Heat. Those teams are just 1-5 against the spread in the last six attempts to do so as favourites, while the underdog in general have been on a good run in the sixth game of the Semi Finals.

I think it is entirely acceptable to feel unsure about the Knicks considering how reliant they have been on their three point shooting in this Series and the lack of consistency that has been shown. However, I do think the Miami Heat are not a team who are going to blow past any opponent and that makes the points appealing as I look to improve by 2-3 record in this Series.

Golden State Warriors @ Los Angeles Lakers Game 6 Pick: It has been seven years since a NBA PlayOff Series has seen a team recover from 3-1 down (outside of the NBA Bubble when the Denver Nuggets did it twice and actually won both Series against the Utah Jazz and Los Angeles Clippers in the neutral environment).

There are two teams hoping to force a Game 7 by winning on the road on Friday and I do think that places some real pressure on the home teams, in this case the Los Angeles Lakers.

There have been thirty-four NBA PlayOff Series that have seen a team blow a 3-1 lead, but only thirteen have been won by the team trailing. However, it should be noted that the last five occasions in which a Game 7 has been forced has been won by the team with momentum and so it is no surprise to hear legends of the NBA court like Charles Barkley state that he feels these Game 6's to be played on Friday night have to be treated like a Game 7 by the home team.

Los Angeles will feel the injury suffered by Anthony Davis turned Game 5 against them, but they are grateful that Davis looks to have avoided concussion and is reportedly trending towards starting this vital game. We are still being impressed by LeBron James, even if he is not the player he once was, but the Lakers are well aware of the importance of Anthony Davis in putting them in a position to return to the Western Conference Finals for the first time since the NBA Bubble in 2020 which ended with their Championship win.

The Lakers have been efficient getting inside the arc and using the skills of Davis inside the paint, while they are not a team that will go for a heavy dose of three point shooting.

It has been an effective game plan through this Conference Semi Final Series and is the opposite approach to the Golden State Warriors who will continue to launch the ball from deep. Klay Thompson has struggled in the last three games in the Series and that has contributed to the inconsistent performances that the Warriors have produced from shooting the three ball.

In the two games played in this Arena, the Golden State Warriors have finished up with a 29% and 30% mark from the three point range and that has proven to be costly considering they have launched eighty-five shots from deep.

Steve Kerr might have gotten into the ear of the officials with some of the calls that went the way of the Warriors in Game 5, but the experienced Head Coach will know his team need to be better from the three point range if they are going to force a Game 7 back at home. The Warriors did have a 37% mark in Game 5 as they pushed the Series back to 2-3, and that also meant the team were able to get inside the three point arc and have a strong showing.

The line for this game looks about right and I am not really feeling comfortable picking a side.

I haven't had a very good Series with a 1-4 record after the Lakers failed to cover in Game 5, but I can make a case for both teams. The underdog have thrived in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series in the last few years, while closing out this Round has proven very difficult for teams set as the favourite.

However, the Lakers have to feel confident with wins in both previous home games against the Warriors, even if they had to come from behind to do so in Game 4.

Instead I think there is a case to be made for this Game 6 to finish 'under' the total line set- the 'over' is leading 3-2 in the Series, but this is a point in the Conference Semi Final Series when the 'under' has been on a really strong run with teams picking up their intensity to avoid elimination/to move through to the Conference Finals.

The 'under' is on a 6-1 run in Game 6 of the Conference Semi Final Series since 2021 (written before the two Game 6's to be played on Thursday).

Throw in the fact that both games played in this Series have finished 'under' the total and I do think this Game 6 can go the same way.

Sunday 14th May

Philadelphia 76ers @ Boston Celtics Game 7 Pick: A back and forth Conference Semi Final Series has been forced into a deciding Game 7 and I think that is fitting for this one between the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers.

The winner will enter the Eastern Conference Finals as the favourite to win and earn a spot in the NBA Finals beginning in June and that is some significant pressure to deal with on Sunday. Some of the big names struggled under that spotlight in Game 6, but Jayson Tatum was just able to settle down in time to produce some huge three point shots in the last four minutes of the Fourth Quarter to lead the Boston Celtics to the win.

Headlines were being written about Tatum's poor outing in Game 6 having been at 1/14 from the field and missing all six three pointers tried going into the Fourth Quarter. He had three more points than turnovers before finding his rhythm and there will be a lot of confidence in the Boston locker room as they head back home with two days of rest between games.

That time is going to be really important for the Philadelphia 76ers who will know they missed a big opportunity to earn the upset Series win after fighting back in Game 6 and going up and down the court. Poor shooting at the critical time in the Fourth Quarter as Jayson Tatum inspired the Boston run ended up seeing the 76ers come up short, but some of the body language in the last two minutes would have been massively disheartening for a fan watching on.

While it was unlikely they were going to win the game at that point, the slumping of Joel Embiid and James Harden and the little effort to get back down the court following a Boston Defensive rebound was worrying. With Joel Embiid playing with some pain, that has to be a concern and the 76ers should be wrapping him up and making sure he is absolutely ready to go on Sunday.

Unsurprisingly Boston are the big favourites at home and I do think they have been the superior team throughout much of the Series, Game 5 aside. The Celtics could have easily won all three road games played in this Series, but they would be foolish to ignore that two of the three Philadelphia wins have been in this Arena.

The 76ers will have to re-energise from an Offensive standpoint having been held to 86 points in Game 6 and especially as that follows an 87 point effort in Game 2. James Harden and Tyrese Maxey have had their moments in this Series, but it really does feel like a Game 7 that is going to come down to the Boston Celtics and how efficiently they can shoot their own three ball.

Jayson Tatum will not want to start as slowly as he did on Thursday, but it does feel like the Boston Celtics can hit between 35-39% from the three point range and that could be decisive for them.

My honest feeling is that the Celtics have not been Coached as well as they could be, but the adjustments made in Game 6 have given them the edge and this is a team that is either going to win by ten points or lose outright.

The lean is with a positive outcome for the Boston Celtics who won a Game 7 in both the Conference Semi Finals and Conference Finals last season. The Game 7 win at home against the Milwaukee Bucks came in a blowout and I do think the Philadelphia 76ers looked like a team that really does feel that their best chance of winning this Series has come and gone.

The team that has won Game 6 in the Conference Semi Finals in recent seasons to force a Game 7 are 7-2 against the spread in the decider. Big home favourites have not really played very well in this Round in recent times, and Boston are 1-2 against the spread at home in this Series, but I think the late Fourth Quarter charge has just given them the impetus to move through to another Eastern Conference Finals and prolong Philadelphia's long wait to do so.

MY PICKS: 09/05 Boston Celtics - 7.5 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

09/05 Denver Nuggets - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Coral (1 Unit)

10/05 New York Knicks - 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

10/05 Los Angeles Lakers + 7 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (1 Unit)

11/05 Boston Celtics - 2.5 Points @ 2.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

11/05 Denver Nuggets + 3.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

12/05 New York Knicks + 5.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

12/05 Los Angeles Lakers-Golden State Warriors Under 221 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

14/05 Boston Celtics - 7 Points @ 2.00 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Semi Final Update: 14-8-1, + 4.90 Units (23 Units Staked, + 21.30% Yield)

First Round Final: 22-9, + 11.04 Units (31 Units Staked, + 35.61% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2023- Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder (May 6th)

Last weekend was supposedly set aside for the Heavyweight Undisputed fight between Tyson Fury and Oleksandr Usyk, but that bout is now set for the second half of the 2023 year.

It meant it was something of a quieter weekend after the two very good fights/events headlined by Joe Cordina and Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia a couple of weeks ago.

Joe Cordina has reclaimed his World Title in a very good fight and I am only a little disappointed that we are not going to get an immediate rematch in what was a competitive win over Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov. The reason I am not so upset is because Cordina is likely going to be moving into some very big fights in his Division as Unifications look to be in his future, while he could move up to 135 pounds over the next eighteen months where some more big fights could be waiting.

Gervonta Davis vs Ryan Garcia is the most high-profile Boxing event of 2023 year so far and it did not disappoint in the main.

However, I think most Boxing fans will feel justified in picking Davis to win the bout having been comfortable from the moment he earned the Knock Down in the Second Round. Both fighters did their job in bringing in a very strong PPV number, but it has left Ryan Garcia in a tough spot as he looks for another new trainer and has to likely rebuild the reputation, even if he is going to be operating at 140 pounds in the foreseeable future.

Over the last twelve months, the World Titles have fractured in the Light-Welterweight Division after Josh Taylor had previously held all four Belts at the same time. He is still the WBC Champion and will be defending that Title in June, but Garcia will have options as a fairly highly Ranked contender in the WBA, an organisation whose Light-Welterweight Champion Alberto Puello has recently been found with a failed drug test.

The Interim World Champion is not going to be one of the very top names and I think that would be a good route for Ryan Garcia to go as he rebuilds confidence under a new trainer and can then lead to some big Unifications and a potential rematch with Gervonta Davis down the road.

The 'new face of Boxing' Tank Davis looks to have a lot more easy paths to tread, but we have yet to see him really go after Devin Haney, Shakur Stevenson or Vasyl Lomachenko. The head of the Lightweight Division will be decided later in May when Haney and Lomachenko meet, but Gervonta Davis will know this is a loaded Division and he will have a chance to really strengthen his resume in the months ahead.

Hopefully the WBA Regular Champion will be forced to fight for the main World Title sooner than later and we could have some monster nights involving Davis, who has also fought at 140 and who may be thinking about a challenging move to the Welterweight Division once Terence Crawford and Errol Spence Jr get their acts together.

The current 'face of Boxing' will be back in the ring on Saturday as Canelo Alvarez returns to Mexico for the first time in over a decade.

Joshua Buatsi headlines a Boxxer card in the United Kingdom on the same evening at the start of a good looking month.

Both of the big names headlining are hoping that this weekend is the one that will create the path to the huge nights they are looking for, but overlooking the opponent in the opposite corner would be a mistake.

Two weeks ago, a 4-3 record returned a solid profit for the Boxing Picks, although I am still trying to turn this season back around to produce a positive return to back up the decent returns in 2022.

Moving back into the black before the halfway mark of the calendar year is the aim, but it does take patience too.

I don't need to get it all back this weekend, but another winning weekend will be well received of course.

Canelo Alvarez vs John Ryder

Eight months have passed since Canelo Alvarez beat rival Gennady Golovkin again to retain his status as Undisputed Super Middleweight Champion and he will be returning to fight in Mexico for the first time since November 2011 when crushing Kermit Cintron in Five Rounds.

Some were hoping that May would be the time when Canelo Alvarez would look to rematch Dmitry Bivol having lost an Unanimous Decision to the Light Heavyweight Champion in May 2022. Instead that fight looks likely to take place at the end of the summer, which means Alvarez decided to get one of his Mandatory challengers out of the way.

To dismiss John Ryder would be a mistake and The Gorilla deserves this shot with some believing he should have been the one to welcome Canelo Alvarez into the Super Middleweight Division instead of Callum Smith having lost a very controversial Decision to his fellow Brit.

Canelo Alvarez ended up with a wide Decision win over Callum Smith to take the second of the 168 trinkets he now carries.

These two share some common opponents and John Ryder has momentum with a four fight unbeaten run behind him since the defeat to Smith in 2019. The only negative has to be that he has not been as active as he perhaps should have been, but wins over Daniel Jacobs and Zach Parker in 2022 will have given the Londoner a lot of confidence.

This is another step up, even if some believe Canelo Alvarez is now on the slide, and I do think the Undisputed Champion is still very comfortable dealing with an opponent like John Ryder.

The latter will want to make things rough and get inside, while his being a Southpaw might be a factor that is overplayed.

John Ryder is tough, but he won't be hard for Canelo Alvarez to find and I do think the Champion is going to want to put on a show for the home fans once he gets through a couple of Rounds to just get his rhythm going.

The likes of Billy Joe Saunders, Liam Smith and Callum Smith have lasted a number of Rounds with Canelo Alvarez, even though two of those were eventually Stopped, and I do think that is more likely the outcome for John Ryder than the blowout loss suffered by Rocky Fielding at the hands of Canelo.

Early Stoppages have been harder for Canelo Alvarez as he has moved up in weight and I do think John Ryder is tough enough to get past the halfway mark in this one. He has only been Stopped once before, but Alvarez is a sharpshooter who will not find it too difficult to find John Ryder in front of him and I do think Ryder will begin to feel the force of the shots by the Fourth/Fifth Round.

A couple of rough moments may be needed for this selection to succeed, but I will look for Ryder to tough out those occasions before eventually being overwhelmed.

Unsurprisingly there is a decent undercard also put together for this big event in Mexico.

Gabriel Valenzuela will be given plenty of support as he takes on Steve Sparks and this has all of the makings of a fan friendly fight.

I think both will feel they have the power to wear down and stop their opponent and I do think the fighters will decide the fight rather than the judges score cards. It would only be a surprise if any Stoppage comes early and I think this fight is likely to come to a conclusion in the second half of the bout.

The fighter I am looking forward to seeing back in the ring is Oleksandr Gvozdyk, the former WBC Light Heavyweight Champion. The Nail was finally hammered down by Artur Beterbiev in their Unification in October 2019 which ended his unbeaten professional record, and Oleksandr Gvozdyk spent over three years out of the ring before returning with a Six Round win in February.

He was genuinely winning the fight with Beterbiev before being Stopped in the Tenth Round, and I am hoping we are going to see the Ukrainian return to the top of the Division to force some big Championship bouts in the months ahead.

We will know plenty about Gvozdyk after this fight with Ricards Bolotniks who is a solid pro that has won European Titles in this Division and managed to go Eleven Rounds with Joshua Buatsi before being Stopped last year.

Oleksandr Gvozdyk at his best would have had too much for Ricards Bolotniks and I do think he can show that he has returned with big ambitions in mind by ending this one within the scheduled Ten Rounds.

Julio Cesar Martinez is defending his Flyweight World Title and he is looking for a big performance after some underwhelming outings. Going up in weight to drop a Decision to Roman Gonzalez will have dented some of the confidence, but the Martinez narrow win over Samuel Carmona when returning to his own Division was perhaps a touch more concering.

He has been given an opportunity to impress on this card as he faces Ronal Batista before a potential Unification with Sunny Edwards later in the year.

The home fighter tends to be someone who will wear down opponents rather than blitz through them very early and I think that will lead to a mid-Round finish in this one as Martinez looks to impress his home fans.

Joshua Buatsi vs Pawel Stepien

After a year out of the ring and a change in promoter, Joshua Buatsi is making his debut for Boxxer and looking to get into a position to earn a World Title bid sooner rather than later.

Eddie Hearn was critical of the departing Buatsi for failing to take him up on an offer to challenge Dmitry Bivol for the Light Heavyweight World Title, but Joshua Buatsi has moved on and wants to face the winner of the upcoming Artur Beterbiev-Callum Smith WBC World Title fight.

Those plans will be in tatters if Joshua Buatsi is not able to beat Pawel Stepien with both fighters putting unbeaten records on the line.

However, unlike Buatsi, Pawel Stepien has not really fought at a great level and his first fight outside of his home nation will be a challenge.

Pawel Stepien was set to face Callum Smith before an injury forced the withdrawal of the latter and I think he was being brought over to make Smith look good.

I think similar plans are in place here and Joshua Buatsi will also know he is going to need to impress to get people to sit up and take notice of him again. Anthony Yarde's performance in coming up short against Artur Beterbiev in January has raised his stock, while Joshua Buatsi has been far too inactive, and the latter will have to remind the public of his talent.

A year out of the ring may mean Joshua Buatsi may need a couple of Rounds to just shake off the ring rust, but I expect he will then be able to get to work.

I expect Pawel Stepien to have some resistance, but Buatsi can wear him down and I am looking for him to earn the Stoppage in the mid-Rounds.

Ben Whittaker has had a slow start to his professional career after picking up an injury and will return for the first time since August 2022.

He says he is feeling a lot stronger and I do think he will have too much for Jordan Grant who has been beaten by Tommy Fury and Stopped by John Docherty. We have already seen Whittaker need Six Rounds to win a fight, but I think this is going to be the start of a busy year for the big signing made by Boxxer and they will be looking for him to close the show in the first half of this scheduled Six Rounder.

MY PICKS: Canelo Alvarez to Win Between 7-12 @ 2.20 Coral (2 Units)

Gabriel Valenzuela-Steve Sparks Either Fighter to Win Between 6-10 @ 2.37 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Oleksandr Gvozdyk to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 2.50 Bet365 (2 Units)

Julio Cesar Martinez to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.50 Coral (2 Units)

Joshua Buatsi to Win Between 5-8 @ 2.62 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Ben Whittaker to Win Between 1-3 @ 2.40 Bet365 (2 Units)

Boxing 2023: 20-29, - 2.02 Units (93 Units Staked, - 2.17% Yield)