NFL Week 6 Picks 2022 (October 13-17)

The NFL season is beginning to take shape as we begin Bye Weeks for teams around the League, although we have yet to really see any team take control and separate themselves from the pack.

Most will feel the Buffalo Bills are the team to beat right now, but they can really prove they are the top team in the NFL by beating the Kansas City Chiefs on the road in what is clearly the best game of Week 6 of the 2022 season.

Other than that, I think many could make a case for a number of teams to win the Super Bowl and injuries are going to be a key to the outcome of the season. We have already seen the kind of impact those injuries can have with the Miami Dolphins who have lost two in a row, and so it is best to make hay when the sun is shining.

Onto the Week 6 Picks.

San Francisco 49ers @ Atlanta Falcons Pick: Back to back road games are always a tough spot in the NFL, but they become really difficult when a team from the West Coast has to play back to back road games in the early Eastern Time time slot. That is the issue for the San Francisco 49ers (3-2) this week, although they have made a decision to stay on the East Coast following the win over the Carolina Panthers which has helped push the 49ers back above 0.500 for the season.

They are facing another team from the NFC South in Week 6 when the San Francisco 49ers face off against the Atlanta Falcons (2-3), the team with which Kyle Shanahan showed he can be a Head Coach in the NFL having helped get the Falcons to the Super Bowl as Offensive Co-Ordinator.

This is the first time Shanahan will be back in Atlanta with the San Francisco 49ers, but the Head Coach will remind all that this is a business trip and the 49ers can continue to lead the way in the NFC West by winning.

Injuries are not helping the 49ers cause with a number of key Defensive players out of action and more were added to the absentee list last week. At some point this is really going to impact the San Francisco Defensive unit, but I am not sure the Atlanta Falcons will be able to exploit any holes that have been left behind as they look to match up poorly with the 49ers on this side of the ball.

While the Falcons have been able to run the ball efficiently, they are missing Cordarrelle Patterson and now have to face a tough San Francisco Defensive Line which has continued to clamp down on the run. That is likely going to lead to more pressure on Marcus Mariota, who has not been consistent throwing the ball nor has the Receiving threats to pick up for their Quarter Back, and I do think the 49ers can do enough Defensively to contain the Falcons for much of this game.

The absences in the Secondary could be attacking by Marcus Mariota, but I am not convinced that he has the confidence to hurt the 49ers consistently. If he is playing from behind the chains, Mariota is also going to have to deal with plenty of pass rush pressure generated by the San Francisco 49ers and that could lead to mistakes when it comes to throwing into the Secondary.

Unlike the Atlanta Falcons, I do think the San Francisco 49ers will have a balance in their Offensive play-calling that could see them win and cover on the road for a second week in a row.

Jimmy Goroppolo is perhaps not the Quarter Back that can be trusted to win games on his own, but he is surrounded by talent and it will all begin with the 49ers likely running the ball with plenty of success. Jeff Wilson Jr has been a revelation with the ball in his hands and I do think the Running Back can make sure he keeps the 49ers in front of the chains and that only makes life that much more comfortable for a game-manager like Goroppolo.

A clean pocket is likely to be in front of Jimmy Garoppolo for much of the game and the play-action could also be key when he does choose to hit Receivers down the field. There are plenty of threats on the field for the 49ers and all the Quarter Back is asked to do is make sure he gets the ball into their hands and let the skill players show off.

The Atlanta Falcons have been a covering machine to open the season, but they have needed a couple of backdoor covers to keep themselves perfect at the window. This time they are facing a San Francisco team who are 5-2 against the spread in their last seven road games and I do think the balance Offensively will give the 49ers every chance of winning and covering here.

New York Jets @ Green Bay Packers Pick: There is a bond between the two Head Coaches leading out the Green Bay Packers (3-2) and the New York Jets (3-2) for this Week 6 game, but that bond will be placed on the back burner for a few days.

Matt LaFleur and Robert Saleh are close, while Matt's brother Mike is the Offensive Co-Ordinator for the New York Jets. Some familiarity has to be expected between the two Coaching staffs, but the focus for both sets will be in winning this game and avoiding falling back to 0.500.

The Green Bay Packers were beaten in London last Sunday as they blew a big lead and ultimately were stopped on the New York Giants goal-line with time running down. Aaron Rodgers hurt his thumb early in the game, but no one associated with the Packers used that as an excuse and instead they are hoping to find a way to produce with a bit more consistency all around.

There is no doubt that they are work in progress Offensively and Aaron Rodgers is looking for someone to step up and help replace the likes of Davante Adams. Younger players are learning on the job and there have been some breakdown in communication when Rodgers has dropped back to throw down the field.

Green Bay will recognise the kind of test the New York Jets Defensive unit will offer, but they will also be very confident in the Offensive Line as the Packers look for them to set the tone. The Packers are a team who run the ball very well and I do think establishing AJ Dillon and Aaron Jones will be the key for them, while I do think the Packers can find a way to do that against a solid New York Defensive Line.

Aaron Rodgers has been well protected by his Offensive Line, but he has yet to really get the passing game going and so it is important to be playing from third and manageable rather than third and long. If the Packers can run the ball like they know they can, I do think they will give Rodgers a big chance to bounce back from a disappointing loss in London to the Giants last week.

I do have to respect the New York Jets Defensive unit, which has helped the team win three of their last four games, although the Jets have certainly gotten the bounce of the ball. Some of the 'fortune' is playing teams who have inexperienced Quarter Backs behind Center, while the Jets win over the Cleveland Browns continues to leave fans scratching their heads.

At least New York will feel they are more productive now that Zach Wilson has returned as the starting Quarter Back in place of Joe Flacco. He has made the big plays at the right times and that has been very important for the Jets as they have beaten the Pittsburgh Steelers and Miami Dolphins to move into second place in the AFC East.

It has certainly helped that Zach Wilson when the Jets have been able to run the ball, but they may find it tougher against the Green Bay Packers Defensive Line. They largely limited Saquon Barkley in Week 5 and the Packers will be looking to shut down Breece Hall and Michael Carter and make sure that Wilson is forced to beat them with his arm.

I expect to see some trickery from the Jets, but Wilson has yet to really be comfortable throwing the ball and I do think he is going to have a tough outing. The Packers Secondary have something to prove after allowing the Giants to produce some long drives last week and fight back from a big deficit, but being back at home off a loss should see them much more focused and ready to compete.

Zach Wilson is likely to be under some pressure from the Green Bay pass rush and I do think the Packers will be more focused following their defeat.

Green Bay are 12-3 against the spread in their last fifteen games following a loss, while the New York Jets are 6-15 against the spread in their last twenty-one road games at a team with a winning record. I still am not completely sold on the Jets, despite backing them with a start last week, and I think the Packers can bounce back from a poor day in London by getting back to winning ways.

New England Patriots @ Cleveland Browns Pick: The real hope for Cleveland Browns (2-3) fans is that the team have something to play for when Deshaun Watson completes his suspension and can begin life as the Browns Quarter Back. Poor personal decisions have led to a couple of tough years for Watson, but he has a big contract with the Cleveland Browns who expect him to be a huge upgrade at the most important position in the team.

With a couple of different bounces of the ball, the Cleveland Browns would perhaps have had a perfect season to hold onto in Week 6, but at the very least they would have expected to have a winning record at this point. Close losses have let them down, but the Cleveland Browns are looking to bounce back from the latest one when they host the New England Patriots (2-3).

Bill Belichick's first Head Coaching role was with the Cleveland Browns, but he has not really found the same success with the New England Patriots since Tom Brady departed for Tampa Bay. This is another season with a young signal caller, but Mac Jones has been banged up at Quarter Back and it could mean another start for rookie Bailey Zappe.

That has meant the Patriots have had to lean on the run game and the Offensive Line have been pretty happy when it comes to blocking up front. New England are expected to have success on the ground, although the Browns may choose to load the box and see if Bailey Zappe has the confidence to step back and beat the Secondary.

A relatively clean game was played against the Detroit Lions last week so Zappe will have confidence in his ability, although injuries do mean the Patriots could be without key Receivers. The Cleveland Secondary is also stronger than the Lions and so they may feel they can take more chances with a young Quarter Back by sending more men to the line of scrimmage and trying to shut down the Patriots on the ground.

Even clamping down on the run somewhat would be a huge achievement for the Browns considering how badly they have handled ground attacks all season. It would also feel like giving the Browns a big edge, especially as they are likely to have plenty of success on the Offensive side of the ball in what could develop into a shoot out.

Cleveland's own Offensive Line have been able to bully opponents and the Browns have two Running Backs capable of moving the ball on the ground. In recent games the New England Defensive Line has struggled to get on top of the run and I expect Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt to have a big day for the home team, while Jacoby Brissett is capable of making plays with his legs too.

Jacoby Brissett should also be playing in a clean pocket with the team likely to be in front of the chains and he may have one or two more holes to exploit in the New England Secondary. I think that could be the key difference on the day, even if Bill Belichick is one of the stronger Defensive minds out there and he is likely going to try and erase one part of the Cleveland Offensive play.

Unlike the other side, the Patriots are unlikely to want to load the box and try and clamp down on the run knowing they are facing a Quarter Back who is experienced. Jacoby Brissett is likely to make one or two more plays than Bailey Zappe and I think that is key to the outcome of an important game for two 2-3 teams in the AFC.

Trusting the Cleveland Browns is not easy when you think of the way they have lost games to the New York Jets and Los Angeles Chargers this season. However, the Patriots are 1-4-1 against the spread in their last six road games and I do think an inexperienced Quarter Back may come up short in this important Week 6 outing.

Minnesota Vikings @ Miami Dolphins Pick: This absolutely feels like a square selection in Week 6 as I am expecting the Minnesota Vikings (4-1) to head to Florida and beat the Miami Dolphins (3-2).

As strong as the start to the season has been for the Miami Dolphins, they are going into this one with injuries beginning to take their toll on the team. Losing the starting Quarter Back is unfortunate, but losing the back up too is a blow and the Dolphins are going to give Skylar Thompson his first start.

The young Quarter Back came in for Teddy Bridgewater last week and the lack of preparation probably did not help, although I am not sure Thompson is ready to compete in the NFL. He does have some very strong help on the outside with Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill, but there is still pressure on a Quarter Back who has not really been expected to be involved with the starting unit this season.

It would make a massive difference if the Miami Dolphins could run the ball with more consistency than they have managed so far this season, but I am not sure that is going to change here. This week the Dolphins have to try and establish the run against the Minnesota Defensive Line which has held team to 4 yards per carry in their last three games as they have shown improvement when it comes to clamping down on the run.

The Vikings Secondary have been a little vulnerable as they have not gotten much pressure up front, but Skylar Thompson may not be the Quarter Back to expose some of those issues. However, while he may not have the same success that Tua Tagovailoa or Teddy Bridgewater could, I do think he has the Receivers that can win their battles and the Dolphins should have some success when it comes to trying to get into scoring position.

The Dolphins will also feel they are playing the run well enough to at least contain Dalvin Cook in this one and have a chance to get into position for an upset, although there is one key difference between the teams.

Kirk Cousins and the Vikings passing game has been looking good this season and there are problems in the Miami Secondary which look likely to be exploited more consistently than Skylar Thompson and the Miami Dolphins are able to do on the other side of the ball. I do think the Quarter Back will be able to connect with his strong Receiving corps to keep the chains moving and he will also have the quick hit down the field which is difficult for Miami to stop.

Miami simply don't get enough pressure up front to prevent Minnesota from moving the ball consistently and I do think that is a main reason the Vikings will be able to win this game on the road.

It feels like a trap line, which is always a concern, while the Vikings are 1-5 against the spread in their last six road games.

The Dolphins have been impressive at home, but I do think Minnesota match up well with the injury hit home team and I think that will see them win this non-Conference game and cover the mark set.

MY PICKS: San Francisco 49ers - 4.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Green Bay Packers - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cleveland Browns - 2.5 Points @ 1.86 William Hill (2 Units)

Minnesota Vikings - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars + 2.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Baltimore Ravens - 5.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Arizona Cardinals - 2.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 6.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 5: 2-7, - 9.36 Units (17 Units Staked, - 55.05% Yield)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)

Boxing Picks 2022- Deontay Wilder vs Robert Helenius (October 15th)

A week can be a long time and especially in a sport like Boxing.

This time last week there would have been a queue of people lined up to knock anyone who may be associated with Boxing or consider themselves a fan of the sport after the debacle around the Conor Benn vs Chris Eubank Jr fight.

A failed test seemingly would not have been enough for the promoters to pull the plug on the event, but a leaked report to the media meant it was almost impossible for the bout to take place.

I say almost impossible because it sounds like Matchroom and Wasserman were going to do all in their power to make the British Boxing Board of Control bend to their will and sanction the fight despite the failed test that had made it into the mainstream, but ultimately the decision to postpone HAD to be made.

It still left a pretty sick taste in the mouth to believe that this fight would have taken place if there had not been a leak to the press, while it does make me wonder how many other fights have been pushed through despite adverse findings in tests prior to the Boxers entering the ring. And after all we have heard from Eddie Hearn when there have been failed tests outside of his stable, it was embarrassing for him to suggest there was no reason the BBBC would have to fail to sanction the go-ahead for the Saturday card.

You don't want to make sweeping statements about Conor Benn's guilt, but it is a terrible look for Boxing to have him not only fail a test, but then to suggest he is a 'clean athlete' who believed the fight should not have been postponed. I think he should have due process, but that should occur before he is allowed to exchange punches with anyone else.

Hearing the likes of Hearn deflecting the attention away from the facts and using smoke and mirrors to confuse fans in the aftermath of the decision to postpone has caused further embarrassment for those involved in the sport and it is good to see a solid schedule in the United Kingdom and United States on Saturday to get people refocused on the athletes that deserve the spotlight.

It has been three weeks since the last Boxing Picks on this page as Joe Joyce's late Stoppage over Joseph Parker prevented a huge drop in the overall profit for the year.

There are some big weekends left before the 2022 season is completed, but I am looking for a productive conclusion to round off a winning year.

Claressa Shields vs Savannah Marshall

This entire card was supposed to take place in early September, but the passing of Queen Elizabeth II meant a five week postponement to a historic event.

Thankfully we are going to actually have Boxing making headlines for events taking place inside the ring rather than outside like last week, and the all-Women's card at the O2 Arena in London has certainly earned the right for some positive stories.

Top of the bill is the grudge fight between Claressa Shields and Savannah Marshall with all of the belts at Middleweight on the line in London. Much has been made of the fact that Marshall is the sole person to have beaten Shields in a Boxing ring in their amateur days, while the British World Champion has been Knocking Out opponents to build her reputation.

Many of those Stopped have been common opponents with Claressa Shields, who is much more a Boxer than a power puncher, and Savannah Marshall supporters are insistent she will be too big and too strong for the American.

However, there are some questions for Savannah Marshall to answer- this is the best opponent she will have faced in her professional career and she will have to find a way to cut off the ring and get into a position to land her power punches against a slick Boxer. The Brit has also admitted that she struggled to deal with pressure in her younger days and this may be the most pressurised situation Savannah Marshall has been in since fighting at the London Olympics in 2012, when she was beaten in the First Round.

A relatively early defeat in the Rio Olympics would have been a blow too, but Marshall feels she has built her confidence under Peter Fury and she has run through her opponents since turning pro.

It has been much different for Claressa Shields who won Gold Medals at both of those Olympic Games mentioned and who has won plenty of World Titles since turning professional. She has looked for challenges and that has seen Shields enter the cage and move into the MMA arena, but this is a fight that will have been easy to motivate the American and she has been a confident figure throughout.

I think things would feel a lot tougher for Claressa Shields if this was a Twelve Round, three minute World Title fight, but a Ten Rounder with two minute Rounds looks to favour her. Claressa Shields is massively talented, but I do think the 16 minute difference between the Men's World Title fights and the Women's makes it that much easier to believe that Shields will be able to box and move and make sure she is not having to deal with the Savannah Marshall power.

It is Boxing and it is impossible to avoid being hit for the full amount of time in the ring, but I do think Savannah Marshall will likely have needed a bit more time to see if she could have worn down Claressa Shields. The slight underdog is the bigger women and there is no doubting the Savannah Marshall power, but I do think Claressa Shields is technically very, very strong and ultimately she can box her way around the power and find a way to win this one on the cards.

Prior to the build up of this fight I don't think I had the best impression of Claressa Shields and would have loved to see the GWOAT humbled, but she has come off much better than I anticipated. I do have a lot of time for Marshall too and her build to this level has been a lot of fun to watch, but the feeling is that she may come up a touch short and lose Six of the Ten Rounds scheduled.

Seeing this in a rematch would not be a surprise if it is competitive and I don't think either Boxer will be blown away in this one. Savannah Marshall will be dangerous for the full Ten Rounds, but Claressa Shields can stay focused and stay out of real trouble and earn that win on the cards, even in the United Kingdom where the judging can be questionable.

There is a loaded card at the O2 Arena on Saturday, but it is the chief support that will have many fans tuning in.

Both Mikaela Mayer and Alycia Baumgardner could not have sold their Unification any better and there is clearly no love lost between the two American World Champions.

I have a lot of time for Baumgardner, but my head says Mayer is going to be cool enough to stick to her Boxing and ultimately can edge out her younger opponent. Alycia Baumgardner has plenty of power, but I am not sure Mayer is going to get involved in the trenches and instead will look to use her length to keep the stronger, athletic underdog at bay.

There are some questions about the weight and whether Mikaela Mayer has had issues getting down to 130 pounds- she certainly can't have been helped by the delay in this fight from early September- but the shorter format of Women's Boxing may just mean Alycia Baumgardner doesn't have the time to really unleash her power for long enough to earn the upset.

Mikaela Mayer has shown she has a decent set of whiskers in the past, but the odds are plenty short for her to win on the cards, which feels the most likely outcome of this one.

Instead it is a chief support that looks well worth watching and I am very much looking forward to this clash.

Deontay Wilder vs Robert Helenius

A little over a year ago, a Heavyweight Boxing trilogy between Tyson Fury and Deontay Wilder ended decisively in favour of the Gypsy King who confirmed his place at the top of the Division.

Deontay Wilder was never convinced that he was allowed to be beaten on his own terms in the middle of the three fights, and he showed plenty of character and belief in his defeat in October 2021. Once again he had Fury on the floor twice, but it was the British fighter who prevailed with an 11th Round Knock Out and Deontay Wilder was left to contemplate retirement.

At one point it looked like that would be the decision that Wilder would make, but I think he actually earned more credit out of his defeat last year than from the majority of his forty-two wins. And once the statue of him was unveiled in Tuscaloosa, Deontay Wilder felt the love of the people that reignited the spark to return to the ring.

Big fights remain and a couple of big wins could see Deontay Wilder placed in a WBC World Title fight against Tyson Fury- that is perhaps not really the route anyone wants to see the American go, but the likes of Oleksandr Usyk, Anthony Joshua and Andy Ruiz Jr are intriguing bouts for Wilder and, importantly, likely to pay him very well.

None of that will matter if Deontay Wilder is not able to beat Robert Helenius, but I do think this is a decent enough match up for the former World Champion.

Robert Helenius was last out on the Wilder-Fury 3 undercard when beating Adam Kownacki for a second time, but this is a big step up for someone who has never really fulfilled some of the expectations that were on his shoulders when he turned professional. He may have won three in a row heading into this bout, but that run started after a Stoppage loss to Gerald Washington and I do think Helenius will struggle to keep Deontay Wilder from unloading on him.

The Nordic Nightmare is technically very good and the fundamentals and size have seen Robert Helenius cause problems for opponents, but each time he has stepped up he has been beaten.

There are going to be a couple of demons to exorcise for Deontay Wilder, and we don't really know how much the back to back losses to Tyson Fury have taken out of him.

However, I do think he will be well prepared for this kind of fight and I think the selection of Robert Helenius is clearly something his team would have thought about. It may take Deontay Wilder a couple of Rounds to shake off some of the ring rust and Robert Helenius is fighting with confidence, but at some point Wilder will detonate the right hand on someone who does not have the best head movement.

Power tends to be the last thing to go and I do think Deontay Wilder is still an exceptional finisher, especially back down at 214 pounds where his speed and athleticism can be a real advantage.

Robert Helenius is likely going to cause some problems early with his solid fundamentals, but Deontay Wilder can find his way and secure a finish around the midway mark of his comeback. The one hitter quitter is never that far away when Wilder is in the ring, but only one of his last six fights have ended before the Seventh Round and a little bit of time may be needed before putting his opponent on his back.

They are asking for more PPV money in the United States for the Wilder comeback, which is not a surprise, but at least they have put together a decent looking undercard.

A potential future Heavyweight Champion Frank Sanchez can sometimes be a little difficult to watch as fans clamour for him to step on the gas when dominating opponents. He is a quality technician, but it would be disappointing if he does not have an early night against Carlos Negron, who has a couple of very early losses on the record.

Two of the leading Bantamweights meet when Gary Antonio Russell and Emmanuel Rodriguez run it back after a no contest due to an accidental head-butt back in August 2021.

Both have had a tune up fight since then and will feel that the World Titles are going to become fractured in the Division once Naoya Inoue likely Unifies in his fight against Paul Butler in December. The winner of this one will certainly be in line to fight for one or two of the vacant belts and I think it will be a close, competitive contest.

Emmanuel Rodriguez has shown he is much more than when being wiped out by Inoue in the World Boxing Super Series, while Gary Antonio Russell remains unbeaten. The edge has to be with the latter, who may be a bit quicker and ultimately that slightly more confident with the unbeaten record behind him.

This is the toughest fight of his career, but Russell can show he is ready to move his career on and I think he will likely win this one on the cards.

The chief support to the main event sees the return of Caleb Plant and I expect him to have too much for the veteran Anthony Dirrell- there is no love lost between the pair, but Dirrell is a tough nut to crack and I think Plant will showcase his skills on his way to a Decision.

Devin Haney vs George Kambosos Jr II

Rematch clauses are all the rage in World Title fights, but some are simply not called for.

This feels like one of those after Devin Haney completely bamboozled George Kambosos Jr four months ago and took a Unanimous Decision to become the Undisputed Lightweight Champion.

Ultimately the Australian decided to take up the rematch clause and has promised to be better having failed to make weight the first time when they met in June. He looked pretty tight at the weight, but the images of Devin Haney have been even more startling compared with his look before the first fight and it is almost certain that the World Titles will break up after this one.

If Devin Haney wins, there is a big fight for him against Vasyl Lomachenko, assuming the Ukrainian returns with a win later this month. However, it might be too dangerous to try and boil down to 135 pounds again and it may make more sense to try and become a two-weight World Champion in a solid Light-Welterweight Division where the belts have split up after Josh Taylor's Unification.

For now the concentration is on this fight and I am not sure how much will have changed in four months.

Of course the weight drain is a concern, but I think George Kambosos Jr has problems making the limit too and so it may be much of a muchness. The quicker and longer Devin Haney looks to be too much for the home fighter, even if I am expecting a much more gung-ho effort from what was a surprisingly timid Kambosos Jr last time out.

Before seeing how much the weight looks to have drained him, I felt Devin Haney may be able to step on the gas this time and finish off George Kambosos Jr, who is much more likely to be willing to put himself in dangerous positions to try and get his own shots off. We did not see that last time out, but there is no rematch to fall back upon in this second fight so the expectation is that the Australian will leave it all in the ring.

Much is going to depend on how Haney feels after twenty-four hours of rehydration, but I also think Kambosos Jr looks weak at the weight.

The smart thinking is that Devin Haney may just do enough to get to the scorecards again and earn another Decision win, but there might be some mileage in taking a small interest in George Kambosos Jr emptying the tank and The Dream being able to put a combination or two together to end this one late.

Both Moloney brothers are fighting on the undercard again and I think both will win before moving onto bigger fights in 2023.

Jason Moloney can't underestimate his Thai opponent Nawaphon Kaikanha, but the latter has never fought outside his own country and this is a significant step up.

I expect Moloney to win this one and in impressive style.

Andrew Moloney is on a three fight winning run after ending on the wrong side of the trilogy with Joshua Franco and he should be able to extend that against veteran Norbelto Jimenez.

It has been a long time since Jimenez was Stopped, but I think Andrew Moloney is looking to get back in the mix with the top Super Flyweights in the World and he can put his punches together to end this one before the final bell.

MY PICKS: Claressa Shields to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 2.25 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Deonaty Wilder to Win Between 5-8 @ 3.30 Paddy Power (2 Units)

Frank Sanchez to Win Between 1-5 @ 1.80 Sky Bet (2 Units)

Gary Antonio Russell to Win by Decision/Technical Decision @ 1.91 Coral (2 Units)

Devin Haney to Win Between 7-12 @ 6.00 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Jason Moloney to Win Between 1-6 @ 3.10 Paddy Power (1 Unit)

Andrew Moloney to Win by KO/TKO/Disqualification @ 5.50 Sky Bet (1 Unit)

Boxing 2022: 31-55, + 12.91 Units (151 Units Staked, + 8.55% Yield)

College Football Week 7 Picks 2022 (October 15th)

I needed a couple of weeks off from the College Football Picks to just reassess my approach after a pretty miserable Week 4.

The relatively short season means there are plenty of big games being played every week, but only seven selections have felt good enough to get over my threshold and I am looking for the start of a strong run to close out the regular season before the Championship Games are played.

Over the last couple of weeks we have seen some big name schools capitulate and others rise after a miserable 2021 season- that is the nature of the ever-changing landscape of College Football and it means adjustments have to be made much faster to avoid falling into a hole.

Penn State Nittany Lions @ Michigan Wolverines Pick: The winner of the Big Ten East will not only be a big favourite when it comes to the Big Ten Championship Game, but they are also very likely to be invited into the College Football PlayOff. Both the Michigan Wolverines (6-0) and the Penn State Nittany Lions (5-0) are unbeaten and feeling like they can be the team to reach that PlayOff, although the Ohio State Buckeyes are likely to have a big say in matters having entered their Bye Week unbeaten.

These two teams cannot spend any time worrying about the Buckeyes with a game against them to come, but instead the focus has to be on the unbeaten team facing them in Week 7 of the College Football season.

Both teams have impressed so far, but the Michigan Wolverines are playing with the extra point of trying to prove that last season wasn't just a flash in the pan. Jim Harbaugh's team have lost some hugely talented players to the NFL, but they have not allowed that to distract them too much and the Defensive unit looks to have reloaded effectively.

Most would have expected the Wolverines to drop off on this side of the ball, but the unit looks like it is capable of matching the very effective unit of 2021 and that would be a huge boost for Michigan in their bid to return to the PlayOff. This may be the toughest test of that Defense in 2022 so far, but every sign points to the fact that the Wolverines are capable of stepping up against a Penn State team that were restricted to 17 points two weeks ago.

A problem for the Nittany Lions is that the Offensive Line may not be able to establish the run in the manner they would want against this Michigan Defensive Line which has been in fine form all season. Making teams one-dimensional eases all decisions for a Defensive unit and the Wolverines have been able to clamp down on the run and produce the kind of Line that we have become used to seeing in Ann Arbor.

While they may give up a few more yards than their season average against a talented Penn State team, I do think Michigan can have enough success to force the pressure onto Sean Clifford's shoulders at Quarter Back. The Nittany Lions Offensive Line has been able to protect Clifford when he has stepped back to throw, but they have not faced a pass rush like the one that the Wolverines are able to generate and that may mean making errors when attacking this Michigan Secondary.

Shutting down Sean Clifford and the Penn State Offensive unit completely is unrealistic, but I do think the Wolverines have enough of an edge on this side of the ball to at least restrict them on the scoreboard. Clamping down on the run and making some big plays through the air could force Penn State to have to settle for Field Goals rather than Touchdowns and that should give the home team the chance to win the game and cover what is a pretty big spread.

The line of scrimmage is always a big part of the game in these big College battles and that is on both sides of the ball- while Michigan will feel they can at least win up front on the Defensive side of the ball, the Penn State Nittany Lions have to be pretty happy with what they have seen from their own Defensive Line when it comes to shutting down the run.

Of course Penn State have not really faced anyone like Blake Corum so far this season and the Wolverines Offensive Line remains a massive strength for the home team. My lean is with the Wolverines to just impose themselves when it comes to the run blocking and I think that will make life all the easier for their Offensive unit compared with Penn State's.

Blake Corum should have another decent day and being in third and manageable should be a huge bonus for JJ McCarthy at Quarter Back. Since coming in as the starter, McCarthy has played with confidence and there are definitely big holes in the Nittany Lions Secondary that can be exposed by the Quarter Back who just produced his best game of the season.

Third and manageable also controls the Penn State pass rush and I do think the Michigan Wolverines are the stronger team and can show that on the day.

Michigan were beaten in the Big House by Penn State a couple of seasons ago, but earned revenge with an important road win last season.

I have to respect how Penn State have played as the road underdog under Head Coach James Franklin, but Michigan are 7-3 against the spread when set as the home favourite since the beginning of the 2021 season and I think the Wolverines Defensive unit makes the plays to help their team cover and remain unbeaten.

Arkansas Razorbacks @ BYU Cougars Pick: After finishing with a winning record in 2021 for the first time since 2016, Sam Pittman and the Arkansas Razorbacks (3-3) are dealing with increased expectations. The Head Coach has admitted his team are banged up and desperate to head into their Bye Week following this game, but Pittman will be looking for the Razorbacks to try and snap a three game losing run which has dropped them back to 0.500 for the season.

All of those losses have been in the SEC and that means the Razorbacks are in the basement position in the loaded West Division, one that is regularly filled with some of the best teams in College Football.

Injuries are not an excuse, but they do provide a backdrop as to why Arkansas are perhaps not playing as well as they would like. They were narrowly beaten by the Texas A&M Aggies before more comfortable losses to the Alabama Crimson Tide and Mississippi State Bulldogs, although the Razorbacks may feel this is an 'easier' game when travelling to take on the BYU Cougars (4-2) in an important game on the road to becoming Bowl eligible again.

The Cougars look healthier than Arkansas, but they were well beaten by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish last weekend, despite having one last possession to try and tie the game. Ultimately they were outgained in terms of yardage by a considerable margin and the Cougars have been well beaten in a road game at the Oregon Ducks before losing in Las Vegas to the Fighting Irish in Week 6.

BYU do hold a home win over Big 12 Baylor Bears though and I do think the healthier squad gives them a better chance of bouncing back compared with the Arkansas Razorbacks who may be looking for a reprieve by heading into the Bye Week. The Razorbacks could be without starting Quarter Back KJ Jefferson for a second game in a row having missed his presence in the defeat to the Bulldogs last week, while the Secondary have taken considerable hits all season.

There is no doubting that the BYU Cougars have the qualities to hurt the Razorbacks when they have the ball in hand and the balance shown on the Offensive side of the ball makes BYU very dangerous. They have been able to run the ball efficiently in recent games and I expect them to establish the ground game against a Razorbacks Defensive Line which has been worn down from their last three SEC games and have allowed 227 yards per game on the ground at 6 yards per carry.

With a depleted Secondary in front of him, Jaren Hall can have a big game for the Cougars at Quarter Back and managing a game from third and short situations is only going to make life that much easier for him.

I don't think you can dismiss the road team out of hand because of the injuries and I do think Arkansas have an Offensive Line which is very strong at grading the road in run blocking themselves. The Razorbacks should be able to have success against this BYU Defensive Line, although the home team may be able to sell out to stop the run if KJ Jefferson is having to sit out another game at Quarter Back.

Malik Hornsby did not really have the best game in relief of Jefferson last week and the Cougars Secondary have played well this season. It may allow them to use more men around the line of scrimmage to try and force Arkansas to take to the air and I do like the home team to win this one.

Sam Pittman has never lost a non-Conference game since taking over as Head Coach of the Razorbacks and that has to be respected, and that run includes a win over the Cincinnati Bearcats. However, his team are just 2-8 on the road straight up in his two and a half seasons in charge and I do think the Cougars being healthier gives them a better chance at bouncing back from a Week 6 defeat.

Recent BYU trends are anything but encouraging, but I do think they have the edge on Homecoming in Provo and I think they win this one.

Stanford Cardinal @ Notre Dame Fighting Irish Pick: You don't have to look too far into the history books to recall a time when Stanford Cardinal (1-4) were winning double digit amount of games in each season, but recent years have been much tougher for David Shaw. The Head Coach is unlikely to be fearing a firing, but Shaw is overseeing another season in which a losing season is likely and that would mean the Cardinal having had one of those in three of the last four years.

The one point loss to the Oregon State Beavers would have really hurt last week, but at least Stanford showed some signs of life after being blown away by the USC Trojans, Washington Huskies and Oregon Ducks earlier in the season. However, four losses in the Pac-12 means a hard road is ahead for the Cardinal if they are going to turn things around and somehow win six games to become Bowl eligible.

It is a long shot as an experienced team has struggled and they have to visit South Bend this week against an improving Notre Dame Fighting Irish (3-2) team that have won three games in a row. Brian Kelly has left, but new Head Coach Marcus Freeman will have been disappointed in the defeat to the Marshall Thundering Herd that has likely ended Notre Dame's hopes of making the College Football PlayOff.

He had not been left with a bare stock, which would have stung in the opening two losses, although the improvement is clear in recent games. Marcus Freeman will be demanding more and he recognises that he is likely going to be Coaching against a Stanford team bringing their best effort in what could be considered their most important game left in 2022.

Notre Dame should be able to move the ball efficiently when they have it though and that is because the old days of a solid Stanford Defensive Line look well behind the Cardinal. They have given up huge amount of yards on the ground in each of the last two seasons and this current Stanford Defensive Line has allowed 237 yards per game on the ground at 6.5 yards per carry in their last three games as the competition has ramped up.

I have little doubt that the Fighting Irish Offensive Line will be able to bust open some big running lanes in this one and that makes things much easier for the Offensive Co-Ordinator when it comes to calling the game. There have been one or two holes in the Stanford Secondary, while the Notre Dame Offensive Line has been able to give Drew Pyne plenty of time in the pocket to make his plays down the field.

There are still one or two inconsistencies with the play-calling and the execution on the Offensive side of the ball, but the feeling is that the Fighting Irish will be able to do as much as they would like in this one. That shifts the pressure onto Stanford and whether they can put an end product some of their more productive drives and try and keep this one close.

Issues on the Stanford Offensive Line have not really helped Tanner McKee who has thrown 10 Touchdown passes and 5 Interceptions on the season- those issues have made it difficult for Stanford to run the ball as they would have liked and they are not expecting to get a lot of change out of this Fighting Irish Defensive Line, which means McKee will have to rely upon his arm to keep the chains moving.

Another problem with being ineffective on the ground is that Tanner McKee has to throw from third and long spots and the Cardinal Offensive Line have offered little protection to allow routes to develop down the field. In this one they are facing a fierce Notre Dame pass rush which has ramped up their play in this winning run and I do think Tanner McKee will have some drives falter as he continues to try and make plays under pressure.

I do think Tanner McKee can make some big time throws, but the consistency is likely to be lacking and I think that helps the Fighting Irish pull away for a big win.

Notre Dame are 6-2 against the spread in the last eight against Stanford and have won three in a row by 19 points or more.

The Fighting Irish are also 6-3 against the spread as a home favourite since the start of 2020, while Stanford are 3-8 against the spread as the road underdog in their last eleven in that spot. The Cardinal were crushed by Notre Dame at home last season, but David Shaw has not had the best record in revenge situations against the spread and I will back the home team to secure a big win.

Nebraska Cornhuskers @ Purdue Boilermakers Pick: The Big Ten East is likely going to send a team to the College Football PlayOff with Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State all unbeaten and expected to be favourites to win the Big Ten Championship Game irrespective of which of the three make it to that Championship Game.

At the same time, the Big Ten West could not be any wider open with three teams sharing a 2-1 record within the Division and that doesn't include the Minnesota Golden Gophers or the Wisconsin Badgers.

Two of those three teams will face off in Week 7 of the College Football season as the Purdue Boilermakers (4-2) host the Nebraska Cornhuskers (3-3). After only just missing out on the Big Ten Championship Game last season, Purdue have entered 2022 with plenty of experience on both sides of the ball and tough back to back road wins at the Golden Gophers and Maryland Terrapins has gotten them back on track in the Division.

A narrow loss to the Penn State Nittany Lions is the only setback suffered by the Boilermakers who won nine games last season and are a solid team under Head Coach Jeff Brohm.

Things seem more settled for the home team, but the Nebraska Cornhuskers are playing well under interim Head Coach Mickey Joseph who took over from Scott Frost after a 1-2 start to the season. Mickey Joseph oversaw a thumping by the Oklahoma Sooners, a result that has not aged well at all, but the Cornhuskers have beaten the Indiana Hoosiers and Rutgers Scarlet Knights out of a Bye Week and can put it all on the line in this Week 7 game ahead of a rare second Bye Week.

You do have to feel that the Cornhuskers still need a big improvement if they are going to upset the odds and win this game in West Lafayette, especially as they gave up more yards than they earned against Rutgers in Week 6. The Nebraska Offensive Line is struggling to open big holes for the running game and I do think they are going to struggle to establish any consistency in this one against a Purdue Defensive Line which is backing up the performance of last season.

That means it will be up to Casey Thompson at Quarter Back to keep the chains moving for the road team and that will be far from easy if playing from third and long situations. The Offensive Line have not been the best in pass protection, but Thompson will have chances to exploit the Boilermakers Secondary if he does find a bit of time considering the recent numbers produced by Purdue.

Ultimately the Cornhuskers are likely going to have to lean on the Defensive unit if they are going to be in a position to upset their hosts and they have allowed just 35 points in two games out of their Bye Week. Granted, those have been against two teams who are a combined 1-5 in Big Ten Conference play this season, but Nebraska will play with some confidence.

Much could come down to the line of scrimmage on this side of the ball too- in recent years Purdue have been criticised for the lack of consistency running the ball, but the feeling is that this Offensive Line is playing better than recent editions and there are one or two cracks in the Nebraska Defensive Line which can be exploited.

Being in third and manageable would be a big advantage for Purdue and their Quarter Back Aidan O'Connell and it would also mean he is given a little more time to make his throws. Aidan O'Connell has had one or two issues with Interceptions that need to be cleaned up if the Boilermakers are to make the Championship Game, but the Quarter Back does have a high completion rate and he is throwing against a Nebraska Secondary which has been allowed over 240 yards per game in their last three.

Games between these Big Ten West rivals have tended to be close and competitive in recent years, but I do think the Boilermakers can pull away in this one thanks to their control at the line of scrimmage.

The Cornhuskers have been a team that have thrived when placed in the road underdog role in recent years and that has to be respected considering how many points they are receiving in this game. However, Purdue are 10-0 against the spread as the home favourite of more than 13 points in Conference games and I do think they have a more consistent pathway to Offensive success in this Week 7 Big Ten game.

The road team may be 5-1 against the spread in the last six in this series, but I think Purdue will have enough to win this one by two Touchdowns on the day as they likely dominate at the line of scrimmage.

MY PICKS: Michigan Wolverines - 7 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

BYU Cougars @ 1.91 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Notre Dame Fighting Irish - 16.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Purdue Boilermakers - 13.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Miami Hurricanes - 7.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Washington Huskies - 14.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (1 Unit)

Oregon State Beavers - 3 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Week 4: 4-8, - 4.31 Units (12 Units Staked, - 35.92% Yield)

Week 3: 5-3, + 1.64 Units (8 Units Staked, + 20.50% Yield)

Week 2: 3-5, - 2.33 Units (8 Units Staked, - 29.13% Yield)

NFL Week 5 Picks 2022 (October 6-10)

A cold has laid me low for a few days, but I am going to be adding the selections for Week 5 of the NFL season here.

Last week saw one winner from one selection, but I do feel I left plenty of meat on the table.

Hopefully that is not something to regret and, ultimately, I will take a winning week every week over a losing one. Three in a row have been produced, let's hope it is the start of number four.

Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos Pick: Two teams who have traded for Quarter Backs who have previously played, and in one case won, a Super Bowl were hoping that the upgrade in the most important position in the NFL would be a huge spark for the 2022 season. The Denver Broncos (2-2) and the Indianapolis Colts (1-2-1) have been a disappointment to this point, while injuries in Week 4 have hurt their chances of turning things around even with barely a quarter of the season in the books.

The records is perhaps a little flattering for the Denver Broncos and the Indianapolis Colts with some narrow wins earned, although both sets of players would likely point out a couple of very unfortunate losses/ties that have already been recorded.

No matter how you frame the start of the season, you cannot ignore the fact that neither Russell Wilson of the Broncos nor Matt Ryan of the Colts has been able to provide an Offensive spark in the manner their respective teams would have hoped.

Playing on a short week is far from ideal for either team when you think of the kind of injuries suffered on both sides of the ball- Indianapolis are going to be touch and go as far as Jonathan Taylor is concerned, while Shaquille Leonard has to be considered unlikely; on the other side, Denver lost their starting Running Back Javonte Williams and have also placed Randy Gregory on the Injured List.

It does not make for good reading for either team, especially for Indianapolis who may have felt that Jonathan Taylor could finally get his 2022 season underway against a struggling Broncos Defensive Line. This has been a very poor start for Taylor when it comes to running the ball considering the standards he has set in his time in the NFL, while the Colts are reliant on being able to push the ball on the ground to open up the playbook for the Quarter Back.

Even without Taylor, assuming he does miss out, I do think the Indianapolis Colts will be looking to pound the rock and try and put the Offense in third and manageable spots. That will be important for Matt Ryan who will be dealing with Offensive Line problems if left in third and long, even with Randy Gregory out of the line up for Denver.

The Broncos Secondary has also played pretty well and they have kept Denver competitive in games, which does bode well against the Colts on Thursday Night Football.

A bigger question for Denver is whether Russell Wilson can rediscover some of the form that saw him play in two Super Bowls for the Seattle Seahawks (including beating the Denver Broncos). His time at Seattle ended with many believing the Offensive Line and playmakers had left Russell Wilson short of the talent he needed on both sides of the ball, but the banged up Quarter Back is being asked some questions now.

Too many Sacks have already been absorbed, but the Colts have not really been able to generate the pressure they would have liked up front and that has to be highly encouraging for Russell Wilson.

Now they are without Javonte Williams, Melvin Gordon has to show the Coaching staff that his early ball security issues are not going to be hindering the team and the veteran himself. This is a difficult Colts team to run upon consistently, but Wilson can move the ball with his own legs and short passes may be used to keep the Broncos in front of the chains.

Drops haven't helped the Wilson passing numbers, but he at least had some success against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 4, even in the losing effort.

Regardless, it feels like it is going to be a close game with very little between them on the night.

In a usual time slot, I think this would be really close, but the Thursday Night Football slot definitely gives a lean towards the Broncos. There is no doubting that Denver have long been tough to play at Mile High and the two key players likely to sit out for Indianapolis- Taylor and Leonard- hurt them on both sides of the ball.

Travelling through time zones from East to West has been tough for teams on the short week too- those who have been forced to travel through two timezones, like Indianapolis, are 2-12-1 against the spread on Thursday Night Football.

Only the Green Bay Packers have proved they can handle that situation and I do think the Denver Broncos are the slightly stronger team all around.

Elite Quarter Backs are not likely to suffer too many back to back defeats, but Russell Wilson has been very good at bouncing back from the spot and especially against the spread. He is a little banged up, but I think he is playing with more support than Matt Ryan right now and I think Russell Wilson helps Denver improve their 11-4 record against the spread in their last fifteen games when playing on Thursday Night.

New York Giants @ Green Bay Packers Pick: The NFL international series has been a success, but London has tended to be given the short end of the stick when it comes to the quality of teams that have been sent over for the regular season.

Games have looked pretty good on paper, but there has never been one that features two teams that hold a winning record... Until now.

The New York Giants (3-1) are something of a surprise in the NFC East, a Division full of surprises with three of the four teams having won at least three games already this season. Big Blue will always have plenty of supporters, but the big excitement in London is finally having the Green Bay Packers (3-1) becoming the final of the thirty-two teams to play on these shores.

Aaron Rodgers is plenty excited to be playing in London, although I am not sure his views are shared by the Coaching staff with this feeling like an unfamiliar set of circumstances in which to prepare for an important game. After just about edging out the New England Patriots in Week 4, the Packers are still not quite operating at full tilt and it does make it very difficult to back them to cover such a big spread.

However, I do think they match up pretty well with the New York Giants who have struggled to stop the run all season- I expect plenty of Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon with the Packers Offensive Line looking healthy and having graded the road in run blocking very efficiently.

Both Running Backs should pound the ball with success and I think both are also capable safety blankets for Aaron Rodgers when it comes to throwing the ball. Keeping the reigning MVP in third and manageable will make things that much easier for the Packers to keep the chains moving and Aaron Rodgers should have time in the pocket to target his Receiving corps, one that is still trying to show they can find the level that their Quarter Back would be expecting.

It won't just be the Packers looking to pound the rock- Saquon Barkley has been a huge part of the early New York Giants successes and it has been a struggle for the Green Bay Defensive Line to clamp down on the run. Even in winning games against the Chicago Bears, the Packers were hammered on the ground and only a big lead forced the Bears away from the gameplan.

I do think Barkley will have success behind Daniel Jones, who has been cleared at Quarter Back and is set to start in London. The movement of Jones has been key for New York and the big question will be whether he has the same confidence in his ankle from pre-injury to get away from the pass rush when he does drop back and keep the ball rather than handing off to Barkley.

Daniel Jones is blessed with even less support in the Receiving areas compared with Aaron Rodgers and the New York Quarter Back is simply not as good as Rodgers either. His passing numbers have been poor all season and Daniel Jones could be faced with a huge amount of pass rush pressure whenever the Giants are behind the chains and I do think this is going to be the difference on the day.

Where Aaron Rodgers can make some key throws, Daniel Jones may not and the Giants may have to move away from the run if they fall behind, as the Chicago Bears were forced to do in Week 2.

The Giants have experienced the trip to London before and they may be better placed in that regard, but I think the Green Bay Packers will give their fans across the pond something to celebrate. The Packers have played very well against Conference opponents and my belief is that they can control the clock with a little more balance Offensively and that should see them pull clear in the second half.

Houston Texans @ Jacksonville Jaguars Pick: There has been a huge amount of parity in the NFL through the first four weeks of the season and the AFC South is no different to so many Divisions in the League. The Jacksonville Jaguars (2-2) are leading the way in the South, and they are 1-0 in the Division, but they have struggled to impose themselves against their biggest rivals when they are not called the Indianapolis Colts.

The Houston Texans (0-3-1) are the only team in the NFL without a victory this season, but they have won eight in a row against the Jacksonville Jaguars and that will give them confidence. Lovie Smith will be happy with the Defensive unit that has kept the Texans competitive, but he will need more from the Offense when they have the ball in their hands if Houston are going to get back in touch with the rest of the Division.

Davis Mills is the current Quarter Back, but he has not really been able to show that he can take the Texans forward and you have to imagine a First Round Pick will be used on a signal-caller next season. No team is going to be thinking about tanking after just four weeks, but the Texans are short of the quality of many others in the NFL and they are going to be up against a Jacksonville Defensive unit that has played with confidence early in the season.

The Jaguars Defensive Line has been able to clamp down on the run and they will be looking to force Davis Mills to beat them through the air- in the last three games, the Jaguars have looked like a team that can contain things up front and the confidence from playing as well as they did against the Philadelphia Eagles will put Jacksonville in a strong mental state for this Divisional challenge.

Clamping down on the run brings a powerful Jaguars pass rush into play and they can rattle Davis Mills into making a mistake or two that can give the home team the edge.

With limited support in the passing game, Davis Mills may not be able to score a lot of points against this solid looking Jacksonville Defensive unit and will certainly give Trevor Lawrence and the Offense a chance to win and cover.

Trevor Lawrence looks much improved as a passer this season after going through a few rookie troubles and I think he will benefit from a bit more success that James Robinson and Travis Etienne are likely to have running the ball. The Jaguars have not been able to establish the run as efficiently as they would have liked this season, but this is a big opportunity for both Running Backs to get going and at least put Jacksonville in third and manageable spots.

The Offensive Line has looked after Trevor Lawrence for the most part this season and I do think the Quarter Back will bounce back from his personal mistakes in the loss to the Eagles as the team slipped back to 2-2.

Houston's Secondary have produced some decent numbers, but some of that is down to the fact that teams have been able to have a lot of success running at them. Building leads means teams will also focus on the ground game and I think the Jacksonville Jaguars can snap their losing run to the Houston Texans and cover the big spread.

You cannot ignore the fact that the Jaguars have been a poor team to back on the spreads in recent years, but the Texans are 6-9 against the spread as the road underdog in their last fifteen in that spot. They will be confident heading to this part of Florida with the run of wins behind them, but the Jacksonville Jaguars look a much better team than last season and they did crush the Colts at home in their sole game here.

There will be a key drive or two in the Fourth Quarter to determine the outcome of this one, but I do think the Jaguars are strong enough on both sides of the ball to enforce their will on the game and come through with a cover.

Atlanta Falcons @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers Pick: A few weeks ago Tom Brady left the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (2-2) and the reason given to the media was that he was dealing with something personal. Most assumed he was filming 'The Masked Singer' but reports over the last week suggest that Tom Brady is about to have to go through a divorce after choosing to return to Football following a statement that said he was retiring.

That has not sat well with Gisele Bundchen, but Tom Brady will be trying to compartmentalise his feelings and focus on the game as the Buccaneers look to bounce back from consecutive losses. This is not a familiar position for Tom Brady to be playing in and he has only once lost three games in a row so it may not be the best time for the Atlanta Falcons (2-2) to visit their NFC South Divisional rivals.

The top of the Division is on the line with the winner taking over top spot, but the Falcons are going to have to make do without the likes of Kyle Pitts and Cordarrelle Patterson. Those absences are massive on the Offensive side of the ball and I do think Atlanta are going to have a tough time moving the ball with any consistency in this one.

You have to feel that Patterson would have been able to help the Falcons establish the run considering how well the Offensive Line have played and one or two issues the Buccaneers Defensive Line have had in clamping down on the run. However, without Cordarrelle Patterson, I do think the Falcons are going to have a much more difficult time and it also puts pressure on Marcus Mariota who may not be able to employ the usual schemes to his play at Quarter Back.

Marcus Mariota has struggled to throw the ball with consistency all season and losing Kyle Pitts only hurts all the more, while the Atlanta Offensive Line have not been able to give the Quarter Back as much time as he would have liked in the pocket. The Tampa Bay pass rush has been strong and I do think Mariota and the Falcons will need a few breaks to go their way to keep the scoring ticking over.

Back to back losses to the Green Bay Packers and Kansas City Chiefs will have hurt the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but injuries are beginning to clear up and I do think this is a better team than what we have seen so far.

The Buccaneers do want to find a way to establish the run as their injury hit Offensive Line continues to learn on the job, but their success will mainly come down to the arm of Tom Brady. While the Quarter Back has not been as happy as he could be, Brady has put some solid passing numbers together and he is facing a Falcons Secondary which will find it difficult to slow down all of the options that Tom Brady has to throw for.

With a limited pass rush, Tom Brady should have plenty of time in the pocket to hit his Receivers down the field and I do think the Tampa Bay Buccaneers can continue their dominance of the Falcons.

The last three wins for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers have been by 13 or more points and I do think the home team are going to want to show they are still amongst the elite of the NFC. Facing the injury hit Falcons comes at a good time and Brady has a very strong record against the spread when playing off back to back losses.

It is a very, very big spread, but I do think the Buccaneers will find the scoring power to cover.

Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets Pick: The 3-0 start to the season feels a long way behind the Miami Dolphins (3-1) after the criticism that was hurled at the franchise for their poor decision to start Tua Tagovailoa in Week 4. Days earlier he had looked to have suffered a concussion, but Tagovailoa then took a huge hit in the defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals and the Quarter Back is likely going to be on the sidelines for a while.

Teddy Bridgewater came in for the starter ten days ago, and he will be getting the call at Quarter Back in Week 5 as the Dolphins look to get back on track in their third Divisional game of the season. Wins over the New England Patriots and Buffalo Bills will have given the Miami Dolphins confidence early in the season, but the injury to Tua Tagovailoa has just soured the mood around the team.

It doesn't help that Miami have the likes of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Xavien Howard banged up- Howard is set to miss out, while Waddle and Hill are both Questionable to play and that leaves the Miami Dolphins short.

All things considered, it certainly makes Miami difficult to trust as the road favourite against the New York Jets (2-2) who split their four games against the AFC North. Zach Wilson was back in the victory over the Pittsburgh Steelers in Week 4 and the Quarter Back could have a very good game in Week 5 against the Miami Dolphins banged up Secondary.

The Jets should be capable of establishing the run and that should put Zach Wilson in a strong position in front of the chains. With the Dolphins Secondary struggling to make stops, Wilson has the kind of Receiving corps that should be able to win their battles and I do think the Jets will be able to move the chains and make this a very competitive game as the home underdog.

I do think Miami will be able to move the chains with Teddy Bridgewater at Quarter Back, one of the better backups in the NFL, although it is a concern that both Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle could be missing. The pressure has been on the Quarter Back, whoever starts, because the Miami Offensive Line has not really been able to open up the holes to establish the run and are unlikely to have much more success here.

Protection has been a slight issue too and I do think the Jets will feel they can get to Teddy Bridgewater if they can keep Miami in obvious passing downs.

You can't take anything away from the Receivers who can make Miami very dangerous, but I do think the New York Jets can do enough on both sides of the ball to keep this one close.

The Dolphins have won four in a row against the New York Jets and they are a team who have the Offensive output that can take a game away from an opponent, but I do think the Jets Defensive unit are good enough to keep this one close. As long as Zach Wilson doesn't make the mistakes to allow Miami to pull clear, I do think there are a few holes in the Secondary that the home team can exploit and they may be receiving enough points for the cover.

New York are a team who have not been one to back at the window, but this looks a good opportunity for them to back up the win over Pittsburgh by keeping this one competitive and staying within the spread.

MY PICKS: Denver Broncos - 3 Points @ 1.83 Bet365 (1 Unit)

Green Bay Packers - 8 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Jacksonville Jaguars - 6.5 Points @ 1.85 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers - 10 Points @ 1.91 Bet365 (2 Units)

New York Jets + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Carolina Panthers + 6.5 Points @ 1.91 William Hill (2 Units)

Los Angeles Rams - 5.5 Points @ 1.95 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Philadelphia Eagles - 5.5 Points @ 1.92 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Cincinnati Bengals + 3.5 Points @ 1.91 Bet Victor (2 Units)

Week 4: 1-0, + 1.84 Units (2 Units Staked, + 92% Yield)

Week 3: 6-1, + 8.92 Units (14 Units Staked, + 63.71% Yield)

Week 2: 6-5, + 0.98 Units (22 Units Staked, + 4.45% Yield)

Week 1: 5-5, - 0.72 Units (20 Units Staked, - 3.60% Yield)